An Investigation Into the Enrollment and Drop-out Rate of Primary School Children in India

Candidate Personal Code: jbb156

Page Count: 14
Table of Contents

Introduction 2
Modelling Gross Enrollment Ratio: Initial Data 3
Modelling Gross Enrollment Ratio: Initial Graphing 3
Modelling the Female Gross Enrollment Ratio 4
Modelling the Male Gross Enrollment Ratio 8
Modelling Drop-Out Rate: Initial Data 10
Modelling Drop-Out Rate: Initial Graphing 10
Modelling the Female drop-out Rate 11
Modelling the Male drop-out Rate 12
Conclusion 14

1
Introduction:
Education is crucial to a country’s development, as it improves the health and quality of life in
individuals, as well as leading to social and economic stability or growth. It is an important facet in the
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and I was interested to see how education develops in a
country. I chose to focus on India due to a personal connection – I have seen first hand how my mine, my
parents, and my grandparents’ educational journey has changed.
As I conducted research to find quantitative data to model for this investigation, I found that
gross-enrollment ratios and drop-out rates are some of the indicators, alongside literacy rates, to gauge the
educational development of a population. As such, I decided to investigate India’s gross enrollment ratio
and drop-out rates in primary school. UNESCO defines the gross enrollment ratio as the “number of
students enrolled in a given level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the official
school-age population corresponding to the same level of education”. It is calculated by dividing the
number of students, regardless of age, enrolled in a level of education by the population of the
official/expected age group that corresponds to the level of education. The final result is multiplied by
100. 
For example, the official age group of children attending primary school in India is from 6-10
years old. If there are X numbers of students who attend primary school (including children within this
age group and older), that number is divided by A , the entire population of children that are between 6-10
years old. This means that the value for the gross enrollment ratio can be greater than 100 because there
can be students who are above 10 years old that attend primary school. 
As children can drop-out after being enrolled, I wanted to understand how this has changed over
time, especially as it is important for children to follow through primary education to be able to attend
secondary and teritary education. My goal for this investigation is to be able to understand how India has
developed its primary school education system, and the extent to which enrollment have increased and
drop-out rates have decreased. I will be modelling the female and male gross-enrollment ratio as well as
the drop-out rates, and attempt to predict the percentage in 2015.

2
Initial Data

Gross Enrollment Ratio in

Primary School as Percentage of
Population in the Appropriate
Age- groups
Years after 2000 Females Males
1 85.9 104.9
2 86.9 105.3
3 93.1 97.5
4 95.6 100.6
5 104.7 110.7
6 105.8 112.8
7 108.0 114.6
8 112.6 115.3
9 114.0 114.7
10 113.8 113.8
11 116.3 114.9
12 107.1 105.8
13 102.2 99.3
14 100.6 98.1

Table 1- This table regards the percentage of India’s population from 2001-2014 in primary education.
All data points have been taken from Government of India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation (Chapter 3 Literacy and Education, n.d.)

Initial Graphing:

After getting my data, I needed to look at how the points would fit on a graph in order to
understand the type of graph I would need to model the data points. I used Desmos to create a scatterplot
for each category of students, where x was the number of years, and y expressed the gross enrollment
ratio as a percentage. These variables, x and y , will remain the same throughout this investigation.
Additionally, I will be using red to represent females, and blue for males.

3
 Scatterplot of the Gross Enrollment Ratio of Primary School Students (% of pop.) versus
Years after 2000 in India

Figure 1- This figure represents the female (in red) and male (in blue)gross enrollment ratio from 2001-
2014

Although the gross enrollment ratio appears to have reduced after 2011, it is not necessarily a bad
thing, as it means that there is the appropriate number of students at that particular class level.
Additionally, the gap between male and female enrollment has decreased over the years, and despite the
difference being negligible after 2014, the female enrollment is slightly more than male enrollment. This
suggests improvement within the education sector.

Modelling the Female Gross Enrollment Ratio in Primary School Students:

Function A: Quadratic function
The data for female GER appears to fit a quadratic curve, so I decided to make one by hand to
visualize the curve, as well as analyse the benefits and limitations towards using such a model. To begin
with, I chose three points, the first, middle and last points, to create my equation. The points I used are
( 1 , 85.9 ) , ( 7 , 108.0 ) , and (14 , 100.6).

To create a parabola, I used the parent function y=a x2 +bx +c , where a , b and c are constants,
and x is the variable. c represents the y - intercept of the function.

Equation1 :85.9=a ( 1 )2 +b ( 1 ) + cEquation 2 :108.0=a (7 )2+ b ( 7 ) +c

Equation3 :100.6=a ( 14 )2 +b ( 14 )+ c
I will begin by isolating a in order to substitute the expression for the other equations. I will use Equation
1 as there are no coefficients, making the substitution straightforward.
2
Original Equation1 :85.9=a ( 1 ) +b ( 1 ) + c Equation1 A :a=85.9−b−c
Substituting equation 1A in equation 2 and 3:

4
Equation2 :108.0=a (7 )2+ b ( 7 ) +c 108.0=(85.9−b−c)(49)+ b (7 ) +c
Equation2 A :108.0=−42 b−48 c+ 4209.1

Equation3 :100.6=a ( 14 )2 +b ( 14 )+ c 100.6=(85.9−b−c)(196)+b ( 14 ) +c

Equation3 A :100.6=−182b−195 c +16836.4
Isolating b from equation 2A:
−48 c +4209.1−108.0
Original Equation2 A :108.0=−42 b−48 c+ 4209.1¿
−42
−48 c−4101.1
Equation2 B: b=
42
Substituting equation 2B in equation 3A:
Equation3 A :100.6=−182b−195 c +16836.4

Equation3 B :100.6=−182 ( −48 c−4101.1

42 )−195 c+ 16836.4
Solving for c :

100.6=−182 ( −48 c−4101.1

42 ) 19
−195 c +16836.413 c=1035 c=79
30
259
390
=79.664 ≈ 79.7(3 sf .)

259
Substituting c=79 to ensure accuracy in equation 2B:
390
259
Equation2 B: b=
−48 79 (390 )
−4101.1
b=6.600549451≈ 6.60 (3 sf .)
42
259
Substituting b=6.600549451 and c=79 in equation 1A:
390
259
Equation 1 A :a=85.9−b−c ¿ 85.9−( 6.600549451 )− 79 ( 390)a=−0.3646520151≈−0.365

Final Equation: y=−0.365 x 2 +6.60 x+ 79.7

Quadratic Curve of the Gross Enrollment Ratio of Primary School Female Students (% of pop.)
versus Years after 2000 in India

5
Figure 2- This graph represents the quadratic function generated by hand and has been displayed using
Desmos.

Judging by eye, this curve fits the data somewhat well, though there are significant disparities in
values above the vertex, where y=109.5 , meaning that any values above this would not be accounted
for. Additionally, we must consider the implication of a quadratic curve. Because there is a vertex, and
the function opens downward, the percentage of population would eventually be negative, which is
impossible. While we could restrict the domain to address this flaw, assuming that the education sector is
continually improving, it is important for the curve to extend towards 100%. Unless there is a significant
economic crises to warrant a dramatic decrease in enrollment, I will assume that over time as the country
develops, datapoints will be closer to 100%. This means that a linear, quadratic, cubic, quartic, etc.
regression curve alone would not work for the datapoints. Realistically, the ratio would sometimes be
higher than 100%, as we see in the scatterplot, but also lower. Perhaps a sine curve may be better in
modelling these datapoints.

Function B: Regression Sine Curve

After understanding the limitations of using a quadratic function, and the nature of fluctuations in
gross enrollment ratio, I decided that using a sine curve may be better in modelling this relationship.
I used Desmos to create a regression sine curve, and my function, after rounding it to 3 sf., is as
follows:
y=15.0 ¿

Sine Curve of the Gross Enrollment Ratio of Primary School Female Students (% of pop.) versus
Years after 2000 in India

6
 Figure 2 I used Desmos to create a regression line and this graph

This curve models the datapoints significantly better than the piecewise function, and takes into
account for fluctuations, allowing for future predictions. Additionally, the R2 value, given by Desmos, is
0.9637. The R2is known as the coefficient of determination, and ranges from 0 to 1. It is an indicator of
how the data fits – if the value is 0.9637, then approximately 4 percent of the variation can be explained
through the model.
I then decided to predict what the gross enrollment ratio would be like in 2015, so I substituted
x=15 to my sine curve.
y=15.0 ( sin ( 0.329 (15−4.53 ) ) ) +99.3 y=94.7
According to a report in 2016 published by the Government of India’s Ministry of Statistics and
Implementation, the provisional gross enrollment ratio for females in 2015 was 101.4. There is no data
after 2015 that has been published, so the accuracy of this figure cannot be ensured. However, according
to UNESCO, values above 90% are an indicator that the “the aggregate number of places for students is
approaching the number required for universal access of the official age group”. Seeing this difference, I
|actual value−expected value|
calculated the percentage error. The formula is: ×100
expected value
|101.4−94.7|
Here, % error would be = ×100=7.08 %. Although this error is significant, when more
94.7
data is published, it appears that a sine curve may be better in predicting than other models, given its
applicability.

Calculating the Rate of Change with Female Primary School Gross-Enrollment Ratios:
y=15.0 ¿
d
f ' (x)= ¿
dx
d
¿ 15 × ¿
dx
¿ 15 cos ¿ ¿

7
 987 cos( 0.329( x−4.53))
¿
200
I substituted x=1and 14 to understand the female rate of change, and will compare them with the male
values in the next section:

987 cos (0.329(1−4.53))

f ' ( 1 )=
200

≈−16.5

' 2
f ( 14 )=−0.0831 ( 14 ) +1.362 (14 )−5.96 ≈−4.93

f ' ( 14 )−f ' (1 )

Overall change in rate of change in female gross-enrollment rates: =
f ' (1)
−4.93−(−16.5)
≈−0.701 .
−16.5

Although this will be compared to the male gross-enrollment rate, this shows that there is a general
decrease, which could be a good indicator, as it suggests that more students are placed in their correct
education levels, and fewer are repeating or enrolling later than their peers.

Modelling the Male Gross Enrollment Ratio in Primary School Students:

Seeing as a sine curve was an appropriate method in modelling the gross enrollment ratio in
females, I tried the same for males. The regression curve generated by Desmos is as follows:

y=8.48(sin( 0.556( x−5.61)))+ 109

Sine Curve of the Gross Enrollment Ratio of Primary School Male Students (% of pop.) versus
Years after 2000 in India

Figure 4 - Sine curve (in purple) generated by Desmos.

8
 The R2value is less than the female curve – 0.8399 – and does not fit as well as the curve for the
females. Nonetheless, it can be used to make realistic predictions, unlike other polynomial models.
Once again, I wanted to predict the gross enrollment ratio for males, so I substituted x=15 to the
equation:
y=8.48(sin(0.556(15−5.61)))+109
y=102
The actual percentage for 2015 gross enrollment in primary school males is 98.9. The percentage
error is considerably smaller than the female model – it is 3.04% – suggesting that this model would
allow for accurate predictions since there is not a significant difference from the actual data. However,
due to the nature of a sine curve, it assumes that there is a steady fluctuation in data. In actuality, we
cannot ensure that the enrollment will continue to fluctuate in such a manner. This model also fails to take
into account for improvements in the future, and how that may affect enrollment in males. Because the
values range from 117.5% to 100.6%, this model will never predict values below 100%. For an ideal
gross enrollment ratio, it should be around 90% to 100% - anything more would mean that there are
children younger/older who are taking up places that would otherwise be available for children in the
expected age group.

Calculating the Rate of Change with Male Primary School Gross-Enrollment Ratios:
d d
y=8.48(sin(0.556(x−5.61)))+ 109 f ' (x)= [ 8.48 (sin(0.556 ( x−5.61)))+109 ]¿ 8.48 × ¿
dx dx
14734 cos(0.556 ( x−5.61 ))
¿ 8.48 cos ¿ ¿¿
3125
I substituted x=1and 14 to understand how the male values of the rate of change in primary school
gross-enrollment ratios have changed over the years:

14734 cos (0.556 ( 1−5.61 ) )

f ' ( 1 )= ≈−3.95 f ' ( 14 )=−0.0831 ( 14 )2 +1.362 (14 )−5.96 ≈−0.224
3125

f ' ( 14 )−f ' (1 )

Overall change in rate of change in female gross-enrollment rates: =
f ' (1)
−0.224−(−3.95)
≈−0.943 .
−3.95

Again, there is a general decrease in male-gross enrollment ratios. However, when compared to the
female change (≈−0.701 ¿ , and the male, (≈−0.943), we can see that there is a greater decrease in male
gross-enrollment ratios. This may be seen as a positive indicator, however, more data such as literacy and
whether children have dropped out after being enrolled.

Modelling Dropout Rates in Primary School

9
Initial Data:
Drop-out Rates from Class I-V
Year after 2000 Female Male
1 41.90 39.70
2 39.88 38.36
3 33.72 35.85
4 28.57 33.74
5 25.42 31.81
6 21.77 28.70
7 26.80 24.60
8 24.41 25.70
9 25.80 29.60
10 28.50 31.80
11 25.40 29.00
12 21.00 23.40
13 19.40 23.00
14 18.30 21.20
Table 2 - All data points have been taken from Government of India's Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation (Chapter 3 Literacy and Education, n.d.

Initial Graphing:
Scatterplot of the Drop-out Rate of Primary School Students versus Years after 2000 in India

Figure 5- This figure represents the female (in red), male (in blue) and drop-out rates from 2001-2014

Again, I used Desmos to plot these points, where x was the number of years, and y is the drop-
out rate. Similar to gross-enrollment, I used red to represent females, and blue for males. It appears that
there is a steady decline in drop-out rates over the years, with an increase between 2007-2010. To model
this, a cubic regression may be better as opposed to a linear or quadratic regression. Assuming that there

10
is a constant decrease in drop-out, an odd polynomial would be the best as one end increases and another
end decreases (in a “down-up” or “up-down” fashion). This would allow for more accurate predictions.

Modelling Female Drop-out Rate in Primary School Students:

After trying out various odd-degree regression curves, I realized that the best model was actually
the cubic regression as y decreased while x increased. This would help in prediction the drop-out rates in
the near future.
My equation from Desmos is as follows:

y=−0.0507 x3 +1.27 x 2−10.4 x +53.4

Cubic Regression of the Drop-out Rate of Primary School Female Students versus Years after 2000
in India

Figure 6 This graph and regression line have been generated using Excel

This model fits the data points quite well, seen from both a cursory glance and through the R2
value. According to Desmos, the R2 value 0.9162, meaning that less than 10 percent of the variance can
be explained by the model. This means that
The next step is predicting the drop-out rates in 2015. I substituted x=15 to the original equation
– before rounding the regression to 3 sf. to ensure accuracy – and calculated:

y=−0.0506505 ( 15 )3 +1.26793 ( 15 )2−10.4148(15)+53.3789

y=11.394 ≈ 11.4

11
 According to the Human Rights Development Minister, the drop-out rate for females in 2015
attending primary school was 3.88 percent. This is a significant difference, as the percentage error was
65.95%, suggesting that more data is required to accurately model so the extrapolation can be meaningful.

Calculating the Rate of Decrease with Female Primary School Drop-out Rates
I was then interested in understanding the rate of decrease over the years, so I differentiated the
function y=−0.0507 x3 +1.27 x 2−10.4 x +53.4 .
d
[−0.0507 x 3+ 1.27 x 2−10.4 x+53.4 ]
dx

d 3
¿−0.0507 [ x ] +1.27 d [ x 2 ]−10.4 d [ x ] + d [ 53.4 ]
dx dx dx dx

¿ (−0.0507 × 3 x 2 ) + ( 1.27 ×2 x )−( 10.4 × 1 )+ 0

f ' (x)=−0.1521 x 2 +2.54 x−10.4

I substituted x=1 and 14 to understand the rate of decrease, and in the next section, compared
the female values to the male rates of decrease.

' 2
f ( 1 )=−0.1521 ( 1 ) +2.54 ( 1 )−10.4 ¿−8.0121≈−8.01

f ' ( 14 )=−0.1521 ( 14 )2 +2.54 ( 14 )−10.4 ¿−4.6516 ≈−4.65

f ' ( 14 )−f ' (1 ) −4.65−(−8.01)

Change in rate from 2001-2014: = =−0.4195 ≈−0.420
f ' (1) −8.01

These values will be compared with the male rate of decrease in the following section.

Modelling Male Drop-out Rate in Primary School Students:

As I trialed different odd-degree regression lines, I realized that while many fit the datapoints
very well, they were not good in predicting what the drop-out rates in the near future may be. I then
settled on the cubic regression line as it was the most realistic, enabling me to make predictions, while
also following the general trend of drop-out rates decreasing.

The equation from Desmos is as follows:

y=−0.0277 x3 +0.681 x 2−5.96 x+ 46.8

12
Cubic Regression of the Drop-out Rate of Primary School Male Students versus Years after 2000 in
India

Figure 7- This graph was generated through Desmos

As mentioned above, although this model does not fit the points very well, it is still a model that
can be applicable, which is ultimately the goal for this investigation. I substituted x=15 to the equation
and calculated:

y=−0.0276633 ( 15 )3 + 0.681278 ( 15 )2−5.95822(15)+ 4 6.826 y=17.377

The actual drop-out rate in 2015 is 4.36, and the percentage error is 74.9%. Like the case with female
drop-out rates, this suggests that there is large-scale improvement in drop-out rates, and more data will
need to be collected to accurately create a applicable model for predictions.

Calculating the Rate of Decrease with Male Primary School Drop-out Rates
I was then interested in understanding the rate of decrease over the years, so I differentiated the
function y=−0.0277 x3 +0.681 x 2−5.96 x+ 46.8 .
d
[−0.0277 x 3+ 0.681 x 2−5.96 x +46.8 ]
dx

d 3
¿−0.0277 [ x ] +0.681 d [ x2 ]−5.96 d [ x ] + d [ 46.8 ]
dx dx dx dx

¿ (−0.0277 × 3 x 2 ) + ( 0.681 ×2 x )−( 5.96 ×1 ) +0

f ' (x)=−0.0831 x 2 +1.362 x −5.96

Again, I substituted x=1and 14 to understand the male rate of decrease, will compare them to the female
rate.

13
 ' 2
f ( 1 )=−0.0831 ( 1 ) +1.362 ( 1 ) −5.96

¿−4.6811 ≈−4.68

' 2
f ( 14 )=−0.0831 ( 14 ) +1.362 (14 )−5.96 ¿−3.1796 ≈−3.18

f ' ( 14 )−f ' (1 ) −3.18−(−4.68)

Overall change in rate of decrease in male drop-out rates: = ≈−3.20
f ' (1) −4.68

It is interesting to note that the female change in drop-out rates is ≈−0.420, while the male drop-
out rate is ≈−3.20. This suggests that there is less improvement in lowering male drop-out rates in
primary school. Perhaps this is because policy-making is focused towards lowering female drop-out rates
instead of male, therefore having a greater impact in female drop-out rates. Also, as more data arises as
education in India improves, it may be that there will always be drop-outs in the population, and it is
impossible to have 0% of the population dropping out.

Conclusion:
The aim for this investigation was to find a model that fits the data and allows for prediction-
making. Although the models were not ideal, and some had significant differences between the prediction
and reality, I realized that modelling the growth (or decay) for education is not very straightforward.
There are different periods of improvement, where after certain policy making and laws, there can be
greater change. This is difficult to account for in modelling.
Additionally, I found some discrepancies between sources. To corroborate my predictions, I used
a later edition of a report published by the same source that I gathered my data from – the Ministry of
Statistics and Implementation. However, even with the same methodology in investigation and aim, the
figures were different for the drop-out rates. In 2011-12, the report published in 2015 wrote that the
dropout rate for females was 21.00, but the report in 2015 wrote 5.3. This is a significant difference, and
would greatly impact my results.
It should be noted that these figures are heavily reliant on accurate census data and school
surveys. The validity of such figures is difficult to ensure because of the widescale data collection. In fact,
it was found that the 2001 Census of Nagaland, a state in India, had been manipulated significantly.
According to census data, in the decades of 1981-91, and 1991-2001, that population of the state
increased by 56.09 and 64.53 percent respectively. However, the 2011 census showed that between 2001-
11, the state’s population decreased by 0.47 percent. The state did not experience any war, famine,
natural disasters, or political disturbances. Changes in the socio-economic climate correlate with fertility,
so there was no reasoning as to why the population shrank. The level of socio-economic growth was not
reached to warrant a transition to low fertility, making such a drop unprecedented in the history of India
after independence.  
It was found that the population estimates from 1981 to 2001 censuses lacked “internal
consistency and contradict estimates from other data sources”, and the population was overestimated.
This is significant to note because this investigation relies on census data, so it is important to understand
that the data available may not correspond to reality. 

14
 Nonetheless, to further this investigation, it would be interesting to see how the drop-out rates
vary between middle and high school, and whether initiatives taken by the government have significant
results.
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