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  • Ceng 6101 Risk

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    Yirgalem Amanuel
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    This document contains a risk analysis for a townhouse project. It lists 5 potential risk areas: site conditions, market conditions, environmental conditions, financial risk, and contract variation. For each risk area, it provides the type of probability, average risk allowance, maximum risk allowance, spread in millions, and spread squared. It then provides the base estimate without risk, the average risk estimate which adds $8 million or 14% to the base, and the maximum likely estimate which adds $12.7 million or 22% to the base.

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    This document contains a risk analysis for a townhouse project. It lists 5 potential risk areas: site conditions, market conditions, environmental conditions, financial risk, and contract variation. For each risk area, it provides the type of probability, average risk allowance, maximum risk allowance, spread in millions, and spread squared. It then provides the base estimate without risk, the average risk estimate which adds $8 million or 14% to the base, and the maximum likely estimate which adds $12.7 million or 22% to the base.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    11 views1 page

    Ceng 6101 Risk

    Uploaded by

    Yirgalem Amanuel
    This document contains a risk analysis for a townhouse project. It lists 5 potential risk areas: site conditions, market conditions, environmental conditions, financial risk, and contract variation. For each risk area, it provides the type of probability, average risk allowance, maximum risk allowance, spread in millions, and spread squared. It then provides the base estimate without risk, the average risk estimate which adds $8 million or 14% to the base, and the maximum likely estimate which adds $12.7 million or 22% to the base.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 1

    Estimating using risk analysis;ERA

    Project Town houses

    Type of Probabiltiy( fixed


    Risk risk risks only) Average risk allowance Max risk allowance Spread in million
    Spread square
    Site conditions V 200,000.00 500,000.00 0.3 0.09
    Market conditions V 850,000.00 2,500,000.00 1.65 2.7225
    Enviromental conditions F 0.5 500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1 1
    Finacial risk F 0.7 2,500,000.00 5,000,000.00 2.5 6.25
    Contract Variation V 3,500,000.00 7,000,000.00 3.5 12.25
    socio economic risks V 450,000.00 800,000.00 0.35 0.1225
    Sum 8,000,000.00 22.435 Sum
    4.73656 Maximum likely addition

    Base estimate(risk free) 57,255,276


    Average Risk estimate 65,255,276 8,000,000 14%
    Maximum likely estimate 69,991,836 12,736,560 22%

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