Soc 102

22p

An economic indicator is a piece of economic data, usually of macroeconomic scale, that is used by
analysts to interpret current or future investment possibilities. These indicators also help to judge the
overall health of an economy. Economic indicators can be anything the investor chooses, but specific
pieces of data released by the government and non-profit organizations have become widely followed.

Leading indicators, such as the yield curve, consumer durables, net business formations, and share
prices, are used to predict the future movements of an economy. The numbers or data on these
financial guideposts will move or change before the economy, thus their category's name. Consideration
of the information from these indicators must be taken with a grain of salt, as they can be incorrect.

Coincident indicators, which include such things as GDP, employment levels and retail sales, are
seen with the occurrence of specific economic activities. This class of metrics shows the activity
of a particular area or region. Many policymakers and economists follow this real-time data.

Lagging indicators, such as gross national product (GNP), CPI, unemployment rates and interest
rates, are only seen after a specific economic activity occurs. As the name implies, these data sets
show information after the event has happened. This trailing indicator is a technical indicator that
comes after large economic shifts

Interpreting Economic Indicators

An economic indicator is only useful if one interprets it correctly. History has shown strong
correlations between economic growth, as measured by GDP, and corporate profit growth.
However, determining whether a specific company may grow its earnings based on one indicator
of GDP is nearly impossible.

There is no denying the objective importance of interest rates, gross domestic product, and existing
home sales or other indexes. Why objectively important? Because what you're really measuring is the
cost of money, spending, investment, and the activity level of a major portion of the overall economy.

The Stock Market as an Indicator

Leading indicators forecast where an economy is headed. One of the top leading indicators is the
stock market itself. Though not the most critical leading indicator, it’s the one that most people
look at. Because stock prices factor in forward-looking performance, the market can indicate the
economy’s direction, if earnings estimates are accurate.
A strong market may suggest that earnings estimates are up, which may suggest overall
economic activity is up. Conversely, a down market may indicate that company earnings are
expected to suffer. However, there are limitations to the usefulness of the stock market as an
indicator because performance to estimates is not guaranteed, so there is a risk.

Also, stocks are subject to price manipulations caused by Wall Street traders and corporations.
Manipulations can include inflating stock prices via high-volume trades, complex financial
derivative strategies and creative accounting principles—both legal and illegal. The stock market
is also vulnerable to the emergence of “bubbles,” which may give a false positive regarding the
market’s direction.

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Bangladesh, with an area of 147,570 km2 , features a flood plain landscape and several river systems
throughout the country. This landscape provides the major natural resources of water, land, fisheries,
forests, and wildlife. The country currently faces several environmental issues which threaten these
resources, including groundwater metal contamination, increased groundwater salinity, cyclones and
flooding, and sedimentation and changing patterns of stream flow due to watershed mismanagement.
Some of these, such as the changing patterns of stream flow and presence of lead in groundwater, can
be directly correlated with human activity and industrial processes, while others, such as cyclones and
flooding are naturally occurring issues. Many of these issues are further exacerbated by climate change,
which causes increased occurrence of storms and cyclones and rising sea levels. According to the Notre
Dame Global Adaptation Index, Bangladesh is the 43rd most vulnerable country to the effects of climate
change, and the 37th least prepared country to address these effects. There has been some government
actions taken to address these issues.

Climate Change

Among all countries of South Asia, Bangladesh is the most vulnerable one to climate change (Huq 2001;
Rahman and Alam 2003; UNDP 2007) because of its unfavorable geographic location, flat- and low-lying
topography, high population density, high levels of poverty, livelihoods reliance on climate-sensitive
sectors like agriculture and fisheries, and inefficient institutional aspects (Climate Change Cell 2006).
Change of climatic condition affects adversely in every sectors directly or indirectly. But the most
disparaging effects of climate change are sea level rise , higher temperatures, unexpected monsoon
precipitation, increased flooding both in terms of extend and frequency, frequent cyclonic hazards,
drought , salinity intrusion, and increasing temperature (Huq and Ayers 2008). Impacts of climate
change are extremely detrimental to the national economy, environment, and national development

Global Warming

The world’s temperature is increasing day by day, and it is predicted by the specialists that due to
climate change the global temperature will rise between 1.80 °C and 4.0 °C by the year 2100,
although it could possibly be 6.4 °C (Alley et al. 2007). In case of direct effects of temperature,
Bangladesh experiences the most rapid rates of warming, degradation of land, diseases in human,
and demolition in local livelihoods and biodiversity . As well as, in case of indirect effects, hotter
weather increases the number of deaths and illness due to heat, particularly in older people and
urban poor (Depledge and Lamb 2005).

Groundwater contamination :

Groundwater in Bangladesh, which is used as drinking water, is found to be contaminated with many
heavy metals, including arsenic, lead, cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury, nickel, and uranium.[3][4]
[5][6] Of these, arsenic has been determined to be the most significant health issue, with about 49% of
the water being likely contaminated with concentrations above the WHO guidelines,[6] affecting 35 to
77 million people within the country.[7] Arsenic contamination of shallow groundwater is a natural
occurring problem that has been further made worse by the use of tube wells, which extract
groundwater. Since the 1970s, the government started instituting the use of shallow tube wells to avoid
the consumption of surface water, which is often contaminated with various bacteria.[7] These tube
wells, however, reached the arsenic-contaminated groundwater. This issue is more prevalent in inland
areas[3] and for rural areas, where 97% of the population uses tube wells.[7] Health effects of
consumption of arsenic-contaminated water include skin pigmentation changes and lesions, which could
be a precursor to skin cancer. It can also cause lung and bladder consumption, as well as developmental
effects, neurotoxicity, diabetes, pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease

Lead contamination has been found to be high in areas around Dhaka. It has been postulated that this is
due to the many industries in the area, including battery recycling facilities. The Department of
Environment found more than 1200 industrial sites that caused significant pollution. Reasons for the
additional metal contamination include mining and agricultural activity. The presence of lead in the
water affects the environment, as well as human health. The presence of lead in soil also led to a
concentration of lead in the leaves of plants grown in the area.

Groundwater salinity In the coastal regions of Bangladesh, which make up 32% of the land in the
country, there are problems of salinity due to high tides and reduced flow in rivers during the dry
season.[1] There is already a natural seasonal fluctuation of rising levels of salt water. During the dry
season, a salt water front rises 240 km. This affects the salinity of the groundwater in the countryside.
This effect is predicted to be more severe in the future because of climate change, because of rising sea
levels. As a result, sea water will leak further into freshwater zones, which will have a broad reaching
effect on the flora and fauna of the region that depends on the presence of fresh water. For example, if
the sea level rises 88 cm, the water 40 km inland will be contaminated with a 5 ppt saline front. This
would specifically affect the only freshwater region of the Tetulia River, the Meghna Estuary.[10] The
salinity level in the Meghna Estuary, the largest estuarine system in Bangladesh,[11] may become too
high to sustain agriculture and pisciculture.[1] It could also lead to the extinction of some of the
endangered species of the Estuary

Watershed management[edit] The effect of increased human and animal population, as well as land use
in the Himalayan Mountains have caused soil erosion, which could have resulted in the extra deposition
of sediments in the Bangladesh watersheds.[14][15] This may have effects on the soil composition near
the watershed and the propensity of the area to flood. While Eckholm and Myers have proposed a now
popular theory that there is a direct causal relationship between deforestation in Nepal and higher
flooding in the Bangladesh watersheds, there is not enough evidence to determine whether or not this
is true.[15] Improper watershed management does lead to sedimentation in reservoirs and changing
patterns of stream flow. Sedimentation in reservoirs effects the turbidity of the reservoir, and erosion
patterns along the river. It also presents a cost to the government who has to dredge the rivers of its
sediments. In Bangladesh, the government has to remove 0.8 million cubic meters of maintenance
dredging and 2 million cubic meters of capital dredging per year. Since scientists do not unanimously
agree the degree to which watershed management affects patterns of stream flow and flooding, it is
difficult determine the extent of this effect

Answer to the question number (05)

The Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971 was for independence from Pakistan. India and Pakistan got
independence from the British rule in1947. Pakistan was formed for the Muslims and India had a
majority of Hindus. Pakistan had two parts, East and West, which were separated by about 1,000 miles.
East Pakistan was mainly the eastern part of the province of Bengal. The capital of Pakistan was Karachi
in West Pakistan and was moved to Islamabad in 1958. However, due to discrimination in economy and
ruling powers against them, the East Pakistanis vigorously protested and declared independence on
March 26, 1971 under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. But during the year prior to that, to
suppress the unrest in East Pakistan, the Pakistani government sent troops to East Pakistan and
unleashed a massacre. And thus, the war for liberation commenced.

The Reasons for war: Both East and West Pakistan remained united because of their religion, Islam.
West Pakistan had 97% Muslims and East Pakistanis had85% Muslims. However, there were several
significant reasons that caused the East Pakistani people to fight for their independence.

West Pakistan had four provinces: Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, andthe North-West Frontier. The fifth
province was East Pakistan. Having control over the provinces, the West used up more resources than
the East. Between 1948 and 1960, East Pakistan made 70% of all of Pakistan’s exports, while it only
received 25% of imported money. In1948, East Pakistan had 11 fabric mills while the West had nine. In
1971, the number of fabric mills in the West grew to 150 while the number in the East went down to 26.
About 2.6 billion dollars of resources were also shifted over time from East Pakistan to West Pakistan.

Although East Pakistan had the largest population among all the provinces, it had much less political
power than West Pakistan. This eventually made the people of East Pakistan rebel. Sheik Mujibur
Rahman, the leader of the Awami League in East Pakistan, explicitly demanded more economic and
political powers. The struggle finally culminated into the war of independence.

There was also the language issue that kept East Pakistan and West Pakistan in an uneasy status. In
1948, Mohammad Ali Jinnah stated in Dhaka that Urdu was the official language for Pakistan. There was
a big argument about this because only the Muhajir in the West and the Biharis in the East spoke Urdu.
Most of the West Pakistanis spoke Punjabi and Sindhi, while East Pakistanis spoke Bangla. East Pakistan
therefore disagreed; seven students were killed in a fierce protest on February 21, 1952. This day has
been remembered since then and is observed each year to emphasize the importance of the Bengali
language. February 21st is now recognized as the International Mother Language Day by the United
Nations.

A devastating cyclone hit East Pakistan in 1970. It was called the Bhola Cyclone. It killed about 500,000
people and made many more homeless. It brought great shock and deep depression among the East
Pakistani people. But, the government did not provide enough relief to alleviate the extremely miserable
conditions wrought by the cyclone. This caused enormous misery in East Pakistan.

The War: The Awami League, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, won a landslide victory in the national
elections in 1971 and demanded autonomy for East Pakistan. The party won a 160 seats and a majority
in the national assembly. This victory also gave it the right to form government, but Zulfikar Ali Bhutto,
the Chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party refused to let the Sheikh become the Prime Minister of
Pakistan. This initiated the war. The Sheik gave a speech on March 7,1971 when he urged the people to
turn all their homes into a fort of fight. He demanded transfer of power to the elected representative
before the assembly meeting on March 25.

Tikka Khan, a West Pakistani general, flew to Dhaka to become the Governor of East Bengal. But, the
East Pakistani judges denied him entry. Thereafter, on the night of March 25, the Pakistani army tried to
violently crush the Bengali’s opposition. Residence halls of the Dhaka University were viciously attacked.
On March 26, the Pakistani forces arrested Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. On the same day, he signed an
official declaration for the independence of Bangladesh. M. A. Hannan, an Awami league leader, is said
to have been the first person to read and announce the Declaration of Independence over the radio.

War between the Pakistan Army and the Bengali freedom fighters, the Mukti Bahini, began. The head of
the Mukti Bahini was General Muhammad Osmani. The Mukti Bahini were trained like guerillas. India
gave shelter to the refugees and trained the Mukti Bahini. India also helped with ammunition and its
own soldiers. They attacked the Pakistani army. During the training period of the Mukti Bahini, the
Pakistani Army encouraged Razakars, the Bengalis who did not want Bangladesh to become an
independent country, to suppress the rebellion. The Pakistani Army faced problems as the monsoon
came. This helped Mukti Bahini because they could counter the moves of the Pakistanis.

India assumed an active role. Indira Gandhi ordered air and ground attacks. India, having superior
equipment and forces, mounted a three-pronged movement on Dhaka from the Indian province West
Bengal, Assam, and Tripura. The Indian soldiers, Air Force, and Navy defeated the Pakistani army, while
the Bangladeshi Navy helped India. On the ground, three groups of Mukti Bahini and Indian forces
fought the Pakistanis. The Pakistanis tried to fight back, but failed to resist them.

The Victory: On December 16th, 1971, Dhaka fell to the Mitro Bahini, the elite forces of the Mukti
Bahini and the Indian army. An “Instrument of Surrender” was signed by the defeated Pakistani General
Niazi and bythe Indian commander General Aurora at 16:31 Indian Standard Time. This is how
Bangladesh became liberated and independent. December16th is recognized as the Victory Day in
Bangladesh, while March 26 is recognized as the Independence Day. With sovereignty, Bangladesh is
progressing in all aspects.