Impacts of Information and

Communication Technologies on
Environmental Sustainability:
speculations and evidence
5(3257727+(2(&'

)UDQV%HUNKRXWDQG-XOLD+HUWLQ
63586FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\3ROLF\5HVHDUFK
8QLYHUVLW\RI6XVVH[
)DOPHU
%ULJKWRQ%15)
8QLWHG.LQJGRP

0D\


 Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

SUMMARY 2

I. INTRODUCTION 3

II. SKETCHING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ICTS AND

SUSTAINABILITY 4

III. FIRST-ORDER ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF ICTS 7

III.1 Manufacture 7

III.2 Supply chain 8

III.3 Use 8

III.4 Disposal 9

IV. SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS OF ICTS 9

IV.1 Efficiency gains through ICT use 10

IV.1.1 Intelligent production processes 10
IV.1.2 Intelligent design and operation of products and services 10
IV.1.3 Intelligent distribution and logistics 12
IV.1.4 Changing seller-buyer relationships 15
IV.1.5 Work organisation 16

IV.2 Critical issues 16

IV.2.1 The problem of ‘incomplete substitution’ 16
IV.2.2 Re-materialisation 17

V. THIRD ORDER EFFECTS OF ICTS 17

V.1 Structural change and resource use 17

V.2 The rebound effect 18

V.3 Life style changes 19

VI. CONCLUSIONS 19

VII. REFERENCES 21


Summary
7KLVUHSRUWVXPPDULVHVUHFHQWOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWRILQIRUPDWLRQDQG
FRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHW7KUHHPDLQW\SHVRIHIIHFWV
LGHQWLILHGDUH

• ILUVWRUGHULPSDFWVGLUHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRIWKHSURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRI,&7V
UHVRXUFHXVHDQGSROOXWLRQUHODWHGWRWKHSURGXFWLRQRI,&7LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG
GHYLFHVHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQRI,&7KDUGZDUHHOHFWURQLFZDVWHGLVSRVDO
• VHFRQGRUGHULPSDFWVLQGLUHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVUHODWHGWRWKHHIIHFWRI,&7VRQ
WKHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHHFRQRP\SURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVSURGXFWVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ
V\VWHPVWKHPDLQW\SHVRISRVLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVDUHGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ
JHWWLQJPRUHRXWSXWIRUOHVVUHVRXUFHLQSXWYLUWXDOLVDWLRQWKHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI
LQIRUPDWLRQJRRGVIRUWDQJLEOHJRRGVDQG¶GHPRELOLVDWLRQ·WKHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI
FRPPXQLFDWLRQDWDGLVWDQFHIRUWUDYHO
• WKLUGRUGHULPSDFWVLQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWPDLQO\WKURXJKWKHVWLPXODWLRQ
RIPRUHFRQVXPSWLRQDQGKLJKHUHFRQRPLFJURZWKE\,&7V¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·DQG
WKURXJKLPSDFWVRQOLIHVW\OHVDQGYDOXHV\VWHPV

7KHUHSRUWFRQFOXGHVWKDW,&7VDUHKDYLQJSURIRXQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVERWK
SRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYH:KLOHWKHUHDUHODUJHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODQG
UHVRXUFHVJDLQVWKURXJKWKHGLIIXVLRQRI,&7VPDQ\RIWKHVHRSSRUWXQLWLHVZLOOOHDGWR
LQFUHPHQWDOFKDQJHVRYHUWKHORQJHUWHUPJHQHUDOODERXUFDSLWDODQGUHVRXUFH
SURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWV7HFKQRORJLFDODQGRUJDQLVDWLRQDOFKDQJHVHQDEOHGE\WKH
,QWHUQHWDQGRWKHU,&7QHWZRUNVPD\DOVRKDYHSURIRXQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVEXW
HYLGHQFHRQWKHVLJQDQGPDJQLWXGHRIWKHVHHIIHFWVLVVWLOOVSDUVH

7KHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUSROLF\LQSDUWLFXODUWHFKQRORJ\DQGLQQRYDWLRQSROLF\DUHPDQLIROG
,QJHQHUDOZHZRXOGH[SHFWSROLF\WRLQIOXHQFHPRVWHDVLO\ILUVWRUGHUHIIHFWVE\VHWWLQJ
WHFKQRORJ\VWDQGDUGVE\HQFRXUDJLQJHQHUJ\SULFLQJWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRVWVDQGE\IDFLOLWDWLQJWKHFUHDWLRQRIUREXVWV\VWHPVIRUUHWULHYLQJDQGUHF\FOLQJ
HTXLSPHQWDWWKH¶HQGRIOLIH·7KHLQIOXHQFHRISROLF\RQVHFRQGDQGWKLUGRUGHUHIIHFWV
LVPRUHGLIILFXOWWRIRUHVHH,QGHHGVRPHFRPPHQWDWRUVDUJXHWKDWSROLF\FDQUHSUHVHQW
DVLJQLILFDQWREVWDFOHWRWKHHIILFLHQWGLIIXVLRQDQGXVHRI,&7VDQGE\LPSOLFDWLRQWKH
UHDOLVDWLRQRISRWHQWLDOHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWV2QWKH¶VXSSO\VLGH·WKHUHLVDUROHIRU
SROLF\LQHQFRXUDJLQJLQQRYDWLRQWKDWSURPLVHUHDOVXEVWLWXWLRQVRILQIRUPDWLRQIRU
UHVRXUFHVDQGPRELOLW\DQGLQVHWWLQJDPELWLRXVORQJWHUPWDUJHWVIRUWKHLUZLGHVSUHDG
DGRSWLRQ2QWKH¶GHPDQGVLGH·WKHUHLVDQLPSRUWDQWUROHIRUJRYHUQPHQWLQVKDSLQJ
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG¶KDUG·WUDQVSRUWXWLOLWLHVEXLOGLQJVXUEDQIRUPLQIUDVWUXFWXUHV
WKDWZLOOGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHURSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUUDGLFDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQUHVRXUFH
SURGXFWLYLW\ZLOODULVHIURPWKHGLIIXVLRQRI,&7V*RYHUQPHQWDOVRKDVDUROHDVD
¶FRQVXPHU·WKURXJKSXEOLFSURFXUHPHQWRIGHPDWHULDOLVHG¶VROXWLRQV·DQGLQWKHGHOLYHU\
RIJRYHUQPHQWVHUYLFHV,PDJLQDWLYHXVHRI,&7VDOVRDOORZVJRYHUQPHQWVWRDVVRFLDWH
FRQVXPSWLRQZLWKWKHLUWUXHHQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWVDQGWRFUHDWHJUHDWHUWUDQVSDUHQF\
DERXWWKHUHODWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHRIDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRISURYLGLQJDJRRG
RUDVHUYLFH0DQ\RIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQJDSVHQGHPLFWRHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\PDNLQJFDQ
EHUHGXFHGWKURXJKWKHLQWHOOLJHQWXVHRILQWHOOLJHQWV\VWHPV


I. Introduction
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHGHYHORSPHQWGLIIXVLRQDQGXVHRILQIRUPDWLRQDQG
FRPPXQLFDWLRQVWHFKQRORJLHV,&7VDQGWKHEURDGHUVRFLDOJRDORIVXVWDLQDELOLW\LVQRW
ZHOOXQGHUVWRRG/DUJHDQGJURZLQJHIIRUWVKDYHEHHQPDGHWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH
HPHUJHQFHRI,&7VDVD¶JHQHUDOSXUSRVH·WHFKQRORJ\DQGWRDQDO\VHWKHLULPSDFWVRQWKH
HFRQRP\DQGRQVRFLHW\8QWLOYHU\UHFHQWO\WKHVHVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQFRQFHUQHG
SULPDULO\ZLWKDVSHFLILFUDQJHRILPSDFWVDWWULEXWHGWRWKHWHFKQRORJ\FKDQJHVLQZRUN
RUJDQLVDWLRQDQGZRUNHUSURGXFWLYLW\MREFUHDWLRQDQGORVVSURILWDELOLW\RIFRPSDQLHV
DQGLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHLQWKHHFRQRP\DQGXOWLPDWHO\SURVSHFWVIRU
HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGQDWLRQDOVHFXULW\7KHULVHRIFRPPXQLFDWLRQQHWZRUNVDQG
HVSHFLDOO\WKHDGYHQWRIWKH:RUOG:LGH:HEKDYHSURGXFHGDIORZHULQJRIUHVHDUFK
FRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHSURFHVVRI¶JOREDOLVDWLRQ·LQDOOLWVIDFHWVWKHUHVKDSLQJRIWKHSROLWLFDO
DQGILVFDODXWKRULW\RIWKHQDWLRQVWDWHTXHVWLRQVRILGHQWLW\JURXSIRUPDWLRQDQGQHZ
IRUPVRIDFWLYLVPSUREOHPVDERXWWKHJRYHUQDQFHRIWKH,QWHUQHWDQGLWVLPSDFWVRQ
GHPRFUDF\WKH¶GLJLWDOGLYLGH·DQGVRRQ$UDQJHRIVFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\LVVXHVKDYH
DOVREHHQFRQVLGHUHG,&7LPSDFWRQWKHFRQGXFWRIVFLHQWLILFDFWLYLWLHVWKHLPSDFWRI
FRGLILFDWLRQRINQRZOHGJHRQWHFKQRORJLFDOGLIIXVLRQWKHPRQLWRULQJRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH
DQGVRRQ

,PSDFWVRQHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\KDYHEHHQFKDUDFWHULVHGE\DQXPEHURIDXWKRUV
EXWKDYHRQO\YHU\UHFHQWO\EHFRPHWKHVXEMHFWRIV\VWHPDWLFUHVHDUFK3DUWO\WKLVLV
EHFDXVH,&7VLPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDSSHDUWREHLQFRPPHQVXUDWHZLWKWKHLUKXJH
LPSDFWVRQWKHHFRQRP\DQGPRUHJHQHUDOO\RQVRFLHW\&RPSDUHGWRPRUHWUDGLWLRQDO
LQGXVWULHVOLNHHQHUJ\WUDQVSRUWDQGPDQXIDFWXULQJWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQVOLQNHGWR
WKHSURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRI,&7VDSSHDUWREHVPDOO7KLVSDSHUZLOOWKHUHIRUHIRFXVIRU
WKHPRVWSDUWRQLQGLUHFWLPSDFWV7KH\DUHWRGRZLWKWKHZD\LQZKLFKKXPDQDFWLYLWLHV
DUHEHLQJFKDQJHGDQGUHRUJDQLVHGDQGZKDWWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVPD\EHIRUWKH
HQYLURQPHQW

5HVHDUFKLQWRWKHOLQNVEHWZHHQ,&7VDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\LVDGLIILFXOWDQG
XQFHUWDLQWDVN$OWKRXJKVWDWLVWLFDOVRXUFHVDERXWWKHGLIIXVLRQDQGWKHHFRQRPLF
FRQWULEXWLRQRI,&7VH[LVWHJ2(&'WKH\DUHQDWXUDOO\EHKLQGDIDVWFKDQJLQJ
UHDOLW\0HGLXPDQGORQJWHUPIRUHFDVWVFRQFHUQLQJIRUH[DPSOHWKHQXPEHURI
KRXVHKROGVFRQQHFWHGWRWKH,QWHUQHWRUWKHQXPEHUDQGYDOXHRIUHWDLODQGVXSSO\FKDLQ
HFRPPHUFHYDU\JUHDWO\VRPHWLPHVE\VHYHUDORUGHUVRIPDJQLWXGH5HVHDUFKLQWRWKH
OLNHO\IXWXUHHIIHFWVRIDJURZLQJGLJLWDOHFRQRP\DUHFXUUHQWO\EDVHGRQK\SRWKHWLFDORU
FDVHVWXG\EDVHGDQDO\VLVJHQHUDWLQJUHVXOWVWKDWDUHSUHOLPLQDU\DQGFRQWLQJHQW7KLVLV
SDUWLFXODUO\WUXHIRUWKHOLWHUDWXUHGHDOLQJZLWKPRUHPHGLDWHGDQGORQJWHUPHIIHFWVHJ
WKURXJKVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJH0XFKRIWKHGLVFXVVLRQKHUHLVWKHUHIRUHVSHFXODWLYHDQGZLOO
EHVXEMHFWWRUHYLVLRQDVWKHVWUXFWXUHRIGLJLWDOHFRQRP\FRQWLQXHVWRXQIROGDQGDV
PRUHULJRURXVDFDGHPLFUHVHDUFKLVFRPSOHWHG


)RUH[DPSOHL03,QIRUPDWLRQ,PSDFWV2FWREHULVVXH
KWWSZZZFLVSRUJLPSRFWREHUBBFRQWHQWVKWP-5RPP/HDGEHDWHU+LOW\
DQG5XGG\:LOVGRQ:KLOHPRVWRIWKLVUHVHDUFKIRFXVHVRQHFRPPHUFHLQDQDUURZHU
VHQVHGHILQHGEURDGO\DVHFRQRPLFWUDQVDFWLRQVRYHUWKH,QWHUQHWWKLVSDSHUORRNVDWLPSDFWVIURPWKHXVH
RI,&7VPRUHEURDGO\,WLQFOXGHVWKHXVHRI,&7VLQSURGXFWGHVLJQSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVGLVWULEXWLRQ
DQGORJLVWLFVDVZHOODVVHOOHUEX\HUUHODWLRQVKLSV


II. Sketching the relationship between ICTs and sustainability
(FRQRPLFDOO\,&7VDUHEHOLHYHGWREHWKHPDLQGULYLQJIRUFHEHKLQGDPDMRUWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ
LQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\2(&':KDWDUHWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDO
VXVWDLQDELOLW\RIZKDWKDVEHHQWHUPHGWKH¶LQIRUPDWLRQUHYROXWLRQ·"

$WILUVWVLJKWWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRI,&7VDSSHDUWREHH[FOXVLYHO\SRVLWLYHEHFDXVH
¶LQIRUPDWLRQ·LVJHQHUDOO\FRQVLGHUHGWREHTXLFNGLVWLQFWIURPWKHPDWHULDODVSHFWVRIWKH
QDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW2IWHQLQIRUPDWLRQLVWKRXJKWWRVXEVWLWXWHIRURUDWOHDVWLPSURYHWKH
XVHRIHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOV7KHUHDUHPDQ\ZKRJRIXUWKHUDQGDUJXHWKDWWKHNQRZOHGJH
HFRQRP\LV¶ZHLJKWOHVV·DQG¶IULFWLRQOHVV·,QDQ2FWREHUVSHHFK$ODQ*UHHQVSDQVDLG

¶«9LUWXDOO\XQLPDJLQDEOHDKDOIFHQWXU\DJRZDVWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKFRQFHSWV
DQGLGHDVZRXOGVXEVWLWXWHIRUSK\VLFDOUHVRXUFHVDQGKXPDQEUDZQLQWKH
SURGXFWLRQRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV,QUDGLRVZHUHVWLOOEHLQJSRZHUHGE\
YDFXXPWXEHV7RGD\WUDQVLVWRUVGHOLYHUIDUKLJKHUTXDOLW\ZLWKDPHUHIUDFWLRQRI
WKHEXON)LEHURSWLFVKDVUHSODFHGKXJHWRQQDJHVRIFRSSHUZLUHDQGDGYDQFHV
LQDUFKLWHFWXUDODQGHQJLQHHULQJGHVLJQKDYHPDGHSRVVLEOHWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRI
EXLOGLQJVZLWKPXFKJUHDWHUIORRUVSDFHEXWVLJQLILFDQWO\OHVVSK\VLFDOPDWHULDO
WKDQWKHEXLOGLQJVHUHFWHGMXVWDIWHU:RUOG:DU,,$FFRUGLQJO\ZKLOHWKHZHLJKWRI
FXUUHQWHFRQRPLFRXWSXWLVSUREDEO\RQO\PRGHVWO\KLJKHUWKDQLWZDVDKDOIFHQWXU\DJRYDOXH
DGGHGDGMXVWHGIRUSULFHFKDQJHKDVULVHQZHOORYHUWKUHHIROG·FLWHGLQ5RPP

&R\OHKDVDUJXHGWKDWWKHGLJLWDOZRUOGLVDERXWDVFORVHWRZHLJKWOHVVDVLVSRVVLEOHDOORZLQJ
¶QHDUO\FRVWOHVVUHSURGXFWLRQ·&R\OH1LFKRODV1HJURSRQWHKDVDUJXHGWKDW¶«WKH
LQIRUPDWLRQVXSHUKLJKZD\LVDERXWWKHJOREDOPRYHPHQWRIZHLJKWOHVVELWVDWWKHVSHHGRI
OLJKW·1HJURSRQWH/HDGEHDWHUWDONVRI¶OLYLQJRQWKLQDLU·,IHFRQRPLFYDOXHLV
LQFUHDVLQJO\JHQHUDWHGE\WKHLQWDQJLEOHDQGWKHZHLJKWOHVVWKHQSHUKDSVSRVWLQGXVWULDO
HFRQRPLHVDUHOLEHUDWLQJWKHPVHOYHVIURPWKHDZNZDUGDQGGLIILFXOWLPSHUDWLYHVRIH[WUDFWLQJ
DQGPDQLSXODWLQJPDWHULDOV¶)ULFWLRQOHVV·UHIHUVWRWKHUHGXFHGWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVIRUH[DPSOH
WRWKHFRQVXPHULQJHWWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWSURGXFWVDQGSXUFKDVLQJWKHPWKDWDUHHQDEOHG
WKURXJKXVHRI,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHWLQEX\LQJ)ULFWLRQLVHTXDWHGZLWKWKHORVVRIHQHUJ\
DQGPDWHULDOVDQGKHQFHDODFNRIIULFWLRQLVVHHQDVHQYLURQPHQWDOO\EHQHILFLDO

0RUHUHFHQWO\DPRUHEDODQFHGSRVLWLRQKDVEHJXQWRHPHUJHWKDWVHHNVWRWHVWVRPHRI
WKHVHSUHGLFWLRQVDQGDVVXPSWLRQV7KLVPD\SDUWO\EHH[SODLQHGE\DJHQHUDOO\PRUH
FDXWLRXVDWWLWXGHWRZDUGVDOODVSHFWVRIWKH¶QHZHFRQRP\·%XWLWLVPDLQO\WKHUHVXOWRI
PRUHV\VWHPDWLFUHVHDUFKLQWRWKHFRPSOH[WZRZD\DQGIX]]\OLQNEHWZHHQLQIRUPDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJLHVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\,&7VDUHSHUYDVLYHLQWKHHFRQRP\WKH\
FDQDIIHFWWKHQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWLQPDQ\ZD\VDQGDWYDULRXVOHYHOV

7KHGHEDWHKDVDOVREHFRPHPRUHSROLWLFDOO\XUJHQWRYHUWKHSDVWWR\HDUVDV
HOHFWURQLFFRPPHUFHKDVEHHQUHFRJQLVHGDVDSRWHQWLDOO\LPSRUWDQWQHZIHDWXUHRI
HFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\$Q\GLVFXVVLRQRI,&7VDQGVXVWDLQDELOLW\PXVWWKHUHIRUHLQFOXGHD
GLVFXVVLRQRIHFRPPHUFH

7REULQJVRPHFODULW\WRWKHFODLPVWKDWDUHPDGHLWLVXVHIXOILUVWWRGUDZDGLVWLQFWLRQ
EHWZHHQILUVWVHFRQGDQGWKLUGRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7VDQGHFRPPHUFHVHH7DEOH

3RVLWLYHLPSDFWV 1HJDWLYHLPSDFWV
)LUVWRUGHUHIIHFWV HQYLURQPHQWDO,&7DSSOLFDWLRQV HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRI


 HJHQYLURQPHQWDOPRQLWRULQJ
6HFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWV GHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ
VWUXFWXUDOFKDQJH
HJHOHFWURQLFGLUHFWRULHV
7KLUGRUGHUHIIHFWV OLIHVW\OHFKDQJHV
HJJUHHQFRQVXPHULVP
7DEOH,&7LPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW
SURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRI,&7V
HJHOHFWURQLFZDVWH
LQFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQ
HJ¶ZKLWHYDQV·LQDGGLWLRQWRSULYDWH
VKRSSLQJWULSV
¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·
HJJURZWKRIORQJGLVWDQFHWUDYHO

)LUVWRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7V'LUHFWQHJDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVVWHPIURPWKH
SURGXFWLRQXVHDQGGLVSRVDORIKDUGZDUHVXFKDVFRPSXWHUVVFUHHQVQHWZRUNFDEOHVHWF
7KH\DUHQRWUDGLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRIPDQ\RWKHUSURGXFWV
EXWSRVHDQXPEHURIVSHFLILFHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV3RVLWLYHGLUHFWLPSDFWVLQFOXGH
WKHXVHRI,&7VIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQSXUSRVHVHJWKURXJKHOHFWURQLF
PRQLWRULQJRIWR[LFHPLVVLRQVUHPRWHVHQVLQJHOHFWURQLFFRQWUROVJHQHUDOO\LPSURYHG
¶WUDQVSDUHQF\·DERXWWKHXVHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOVHUYLFHVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRGHOLQHDWH
HQYLURQPHQWDOSURSHUW\ULJKWVPRUHFKHDSO\(VW\

6HFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7V6HFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWVDUHH[SHFWHGWREHODUJHO\SRVLWLYH0DQ\
DXWKRUVH[SHFW,&7VWRIDFLOLWDWHDGHFRXSOLQJRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDO
GDPDJH7ZRPDLQFDXVHVDUHSXWIRUZDUG)LUVWWKHYDOXHDGGHGJHQHUDWHGE\WKHXVH
RILQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\LQWKHHFRQRP\KDVEHHQFKDUDFWHULVHGDVEHLQJPDLQO\
FRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHPDQLSXODWLRQRILGHDVUDWKHUWKDQHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOV.HOO\
0RUHWKDQRI86LQYHVWPHQWLQQHZHTXLSPHQWRYHUWKHSDVWGHFDGHKDVEHHQLQ
WKHIRUPRILQIRUPDWLRQGHYLFHVFRPPXQLFDWLRQVFRPSXWHUVID[PDFKLQHVDQGRWKHU
DSSOLDQFHV$QGEHWZHHQDERXWRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKUHVXOWHGIURPWKH,7
EXVLQHVV86'2&,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVFRQWULEXWHWRDVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHLQ
WKHHFRQRP\DZD\IURPHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOVLQWHQVLYHDFWLYLW\DQGWRZDUGVLQIRUPDWLRQ
LQWHQVLYHDFWLYLWLHV7KHVHLQYHVWPHQWDQGVWUXFWXUDOHIIHFWVRQWKHHFRQRP\DUHFOHDUO\
RIPDMRUVLJQLILFDQFHIRUWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHLQDJJUHJDWHHYHQLIPHDVXULQJ
WKHVHHIIHFWVKDVSURYHQHOXVLYH

6HFRQGDQGSHUKDSVPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\LQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\LVFKDQJLQJWKHZD\LQ
ZKLFKYLUWXDOO\HYHU\SURGXFWDQGVHUYLFHLQWKHHFRQRP\LVGHVLJQHGSURGXFHG
GLVWULEXWHGDQGRSHUDWHG7KHHFRQRP\LVWKHUHIRUHVHHQDVJURZLQJQRWWKURXJKWKH
DGGLWLRQRIPRUHUHVRXUFHVEXWE\WKHPRUHLQWHOOLJHQWXVHRIUHVRXUFHVWRSURGXFH
JUHDWHUYDOXH,QGHHGHQWLUHO\LQWDQJLEOHDVVHWVDUHLQPDQ\LQGXVWULHVFULWLFDO
FRPSRQHQWVRIWKHYDOXHWKH\FUHDWH7KHUHLVVWURQJHYLGHQFHWKDWLQIRUPDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJLHVKDYHUDLVHGODERXUSURGXFWLYLW\'DYLG6FKUH\HUEXWVKDUS
LQFUHDVHVLQWKHFDSLWDODQGUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\DUHDOVRSURSRVHG6XFKHIILFLHQFLHVDUH
EHLQJDFKLHYHGWKURXJKFKDQJHVDIIHFWLQJDUDQJHRIDFWLYLWLHV

• LQWHOOLJHQWSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVWKURXJKFDUHIXOFRPSXWHUDLGHGGHVLJQRISURGXFWLRQ
IDFLOLWLHVDQGSUHFLVHFRQWURORIRSHUDWLRQVGXULQJSURGXFWLRQPDGHSRVVLEOHE\
H[WHQVLYHVHQVRUVDQGDXWRPDWHGFRQWUROV
• LQWHOOLJHQWGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQRISURGXFWVHQDEOHGE\FRPSXWHUDLGHGVLPXODWLRQVRI
SURGXFWSHUIRUPDQFHUHVXOWLQ¶OLJKWHU·SURGXFWVWKDWXVHOHVVPDWHULDOWRPDNH
SURGXFWVWKDWRSHUDWHPRUHHIILFLHQWO\HIILFLHQWVHQVRUVDQGFRQWUROVHQVXUH
VHUYLFHVIXQFWLRQVDUHGHOLYHUHGHIILFLHQWO\ZKHQDQGZKHUHWKH\DUHUHTXLUHG


• UHRUJDQLVDWLRQRIVXSSO\FKDLQVDQGEXVLQHVVRUJDQLVDWLRQHFRPPHUFHOHDGVWRWKHFORVXUHRI
UHWDLORXWOHWVPRUHHIILFLHQWLQYHQWRU\DQGVXSSO\FKDLQPDQDJHPHQWWKHULVHRI
¶WHOHZRUNLQJ·
• LQWHOOLJHQWORJLVWLFVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQXVLQJFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQGFRPSXWHUEDVHG
PDQDJHPHQWDQGWUDFNLQJV\VWHPVLPSURYHVERWKWKHIOH[LELOLW\MXVWLQWLPHDQG
HIILFLHQF\RIGLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPV
• WKHSURFHVVRI¶HPDWHUDOLVDWLRQ·WKHVXEVWLWXWLRQRIWDQJLEOHJRRGVIRULQWDQJLEOHVHUYLFHV
IRULQVWDQFHWKHSXUFKDVHRIVRIWZDUHRYHUWKH,QWHUQHWGLUHFWO\UDWKHUWKDQRQDGLVN
WKHGHYHORSPHQWRI¶HOHFWURQLFSDSHU·
• QHWZRUNLQJHIIHFWVIDFLOLWDWHGE\GLIIXVLRQRIFRGLILHGLQIRUPDWLRQWKHXVHRIFRPSXWHUVDQG
GLJLWDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQGQHWZRUNVPD\IDFLOLWDWHPRUHUDSLGFRGLILFDWLRQDQG
URXWLQLVDWLRQRIPDQ\HFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVEULQJLQJLQWHJUDWLRQDQGHIILFLHQF\JDLQV
ZLWKFRQVHTXHQWHQYLURQPHQWDOJDLQVDVZHOO

%XWWKLVLQYHQWRU\RISRWHQWLDOSRVLWLYHLPSDFWVLVPDWFKHGE\XQFHUWDLQW\DERXWZKHWKHU
WKH\ZLOOEHUHDOLVHG*RRGHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHIURPZKLFKJHQHUDOLVDEOHOHVVRQVFDQEH
GUDZQLVVSDUVH5HVHDUFKRQWKH¶SURGXFWLYLW\SDUDGR[·WKHORQJVWDQGLQJGHEDWHDERXW
WKHDEVHQFHRIHYLGHQFHRIDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQODERXUSURGXFWLYLW\DQGLQYHVWPHQWLQ
,&7VLVUHSHDWHGLQWKHSUREOHPVIDFHGE\DQDO\VWVLQGUDZLQJVWURQJLQIHUHQFHVDERXW
WKHOLQNVEHWZHHQ,&7VDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\:KDWHYLGHQFHWKDW
GRHVH[LVWVHHPVWRFRQIRXQGDQRSWLPLVWLFUHDGLQJ

• UHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\JDLQVDUHVORZ,&7VKDYHEHFRPHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRSURGXFWLRQ
SURFHVVHVDQGQHZSURGXFWVRYHUDORQJSHULRGRYHU\HDUV(YLGHQFHLQPRVW
VHFWRUVLVWKDWUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWVWHQGWREHVORZDQGRQO\D
SURSRUWLRQFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHGLIIXVLRQRI,&7V'HPDWHULDOLVDWLRQLVDORQJ
VWDQGLQJKLVWRULFDOWUHQG
• WKHVFRSHIRUHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQPD\EHOLPLWHG7KHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI¶E\WHVIRUELWV·PD\LQ
VRPHFDVHVEHFRPSOHWH03HERRNVEXWWKHQXPEHURIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVZKHUH
WKLVFDQEHDFKLHYHGPD\EHOLPLWHG)RUPRVWJRRGV,7LVLQWHJUDWHGLQWKHGHOLYHU\
RIDJRRGRUDVHUYLFHEXWLWGRHVQRWVXEVWLWXWHIRULW,QGHHGWKHXVHRIHOHFWURQLFV
PD\OHDGWRJUHDWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHXVHRIDSURGXFWWKH
UDSLGGLIIXVLRQRIEDWWHULHVWRSRZHULQWHOOLJHQWIXQFWLRQVLQFRQVXPHUJRRGVLVDQ
H[DPSOH
• LQFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQV0DQ\RIWKHJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVWKDWDUH,&7RUZHEHQDEOHGZLOO
FRPH¶LQDGGLWLRQWR·H[LVWLQJJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVHVSHFLDOO\GXULQJDQLQLWLDOWUDQVLWLRQ
SKDVH
• 7KHLQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHYLUWXDODQGWKHPDWHULDOHFRQRP\7KHYLUWXDOHFRQRP\LV
LQWLPDWHO\HPEHGGHGLQWKHUHDOPDWHULDOHFRQRP\*URZWKLQWKHYLUWXDOHFRQRP\LV
OLNHO\WROHDGWRFKDQJHDQGJURZWKLQWKHPDWHULDOHFRQRP\)RULQVWDQFHH
FRPPHUFHLVOLNHO\WRGHSHQGRQWKHHYROXWLRQRIIDVWHUPRUHIOH[LEOHWUDQVSRUW
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHVZLWKJUHDWHUFDSDFLW\

7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWQHJDWLYHVHFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWFRXOGEHWKHLQFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI
H[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVDQGDFWLYLWLHVOHDGLQJWRPRUHHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJH7KHFDVHRIWKH
¶SDSHUOHVVRIILFH·FDQVHUYHDVDQH[DPSOH7KHXVHRIFRPSXWHUVLQEXVLQHVV
DGPLQLVWUDWLRQGLGQRWUHSODFHFRQYHQWLRQDOSDSHUZRUNEXWVXSSOHPHQWHGLWDQGWKH
SURPLVHRIDQHQYLURQPHQWDOO\IULHQGO\¶SDSHUOHVVRIILFH·GLGQRWPDWHULDOLVH6LPLODUO\
QHZORJLVWLFV\VWHPVIRUUHWDLOHFRPPHUFHFRXOGUHVXOWLQDGGLWLRQDOWUDQVSRUWLIWKH\DUH


QRWLQWHJUDWHGZLWKH[LVWLQJV\VWHPVRULIFRQVXPHUVGRQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHWKH
QXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOVKRSSLQJWULSV

7KLUGRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7V7KLUGRUGHUHIIHFWVUHODWHWRIHHGEDFNSURFHVVHVWKDWFDQKDYH
FRXQWHULQWXLWLYHRXWFRPHV7KH\DUHSRWHQWLDOO\PRVWSURIRXQGHIIHFWVEXWDOVRGLIILFXOW
WRDVVHVV$ZHOONQRZQIHHGEDFNPHFKDQLVPLVWKHVRFDOOHG¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·RIWHQ
REVHUYHGLQWKHWUDQVSRUWDQGHQHUJ\VHFWRU,WRFFXUVZKHQHIILFLHQF\JDLQVGLUHFWO\RU
LQGLUHFWO\VWLPXODWHQHZGHPDQGZKLFKEDODQFHRUHYHQRYHUFRPSHQVDWHIRUSRVLWLYH
HQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV6FHSWLFVIHDUWKDWWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVWLPXODWHGE\,&7V
FRXOGRIIVHWWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOJDLQVGHVFULEHGDERYH:KHWKHUWKHGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQRI
WKHHFRQRP\FDQNHHSXSZLWKWKHLQFUHDVHGUDWHRI*'3JURZWKVWLPXODWHGE\WKH
ZLGHVSUHDGGLIIXVLRQRI,&7VGHSHQGVPDLQO\RQWKHFROOHFWLYHFKRLFHVRIFRQVXPHUV
:LOOWKHPRQH\DQGWLPHIUHHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRI,&7VEHVSHQWLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQRI
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\GDPDJLQJJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVRUWKURXJKGHPDQGIRUOHVVWDQJLEOH
VHUYLFHV"$QHFGRWDOHYLGHQFHVRIDUVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUHERXQGHIIHFWLVDUHDOWKUHDWWR
LQFUHPHQWDOHIILFLHQF\JDLQV)RUH[DPSOHWKHUHVHHPVWREHDSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQ
EHWZHHQWKHXVHRIHPDLODQGEXVLQHVVWUDYHORQHVSXUULQJWKHRWKHU7HOOLQJDVLPLODU
VWRU\LVWKHREVHUYDWLRQWKDWDIWHUVRIWZDUHWKHVHFRQGODUJHVWHFRPPHUFHPDUNHWLVRQ
OLQHWLFNHWLQJIRUWUDQVSRUWVHUYLFHV$SURFHVVRIVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDOJOREDOLVDWLRQFRXOG
FRQVWLWXWHDQRWKHUWKLUGRUGHUHIIHFW,IJOREDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVVDWHOOLWH
WHOHYLVLRQ,QWHUQHWHPDLOEULQJWRJHWKHUGLIIHUHQWFXOWXUHVWKLVLVOLNHO\WRUHVXOWLQPRUH
PDWHULDOH[FKDQJHVDVZHOOHVSHFLDOO\WKURXJKWUDGHDQGORQJGLVWDQFHWUDYHO

III. First-order environmental effects of ICTs

7KHPDLQLPPHGLDWHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRI,&7VDUHSUHGRPLQDQWO\UHODWHGWRWKH
IROORZLQJIRXUIDFWRUV

• PDQXIDFWXUHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW
• WKHWUDQVSRUWRIFRPSRQHQWVDQGSURGXFWV
• XVHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW
• GLVSRVDORI,&7HTXLSPHQW

2WKHUOHVVVLJQLILFDQWHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVDUHUHODWHGWRSDFNDJLQJ

III.1 Manufacture
&XUUHQW,&7V\VWHPVUHO\RQDYDULHW\RIGLIIHUHQWSURGXFWVZLWKKHWHURJHQHRXV
HQYLURQPHQWDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV7KHVHLQFOXGHSURGXFWJURXSVVXFKDVSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUV
QHWVHUYHUVPRELOHSKRQHVFDEOHVVDWHOOLWHVSHULSKHUDOGHYLFHVVFUHHQVSULQWHUV
VFDQQHUVHWFHWF7KHVHFWRULVVWLOOH[SDQGLQJDQGQRZUHSUHVHQWVDVLJQLILFDQWSDUWRI
WKH*'3LQPRVWLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHV,Q2(&'FRXQWULHVSURGXFHG,&7
JRRGVZRUWKPRUHWKDQELOOLRQ86'2(&'

0RVWSURGXFWVFRQVLVWRIDODUJHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWFRPSRQHQWVHJPLFURFKLSV
VHPLFRQGXFWRUVSULQWHGZLULQJERDUGVFDWKRGHUD\WXEHVDQGEDWWHULHV7KH
PDQXIDFWXUHRIPDQ\RIWKHVHFRPSRQHQWVKDVLPSRUWDQWHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV7KH
SURGXFWLRQRIVHPLFRQGXFWRUVIRUH[DPSOHFDXVHVVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWVRIDLUHPLVVLRQV
DFLGIXPHVYRODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVDQGGRSLQJJDVHVZDWHUHPLVVLRQVVROYHQWV
FOHDQLQJVROXWLRQVDFLGVPHWDOVDQGZDVWHVVLOLFRQVROYHQWV(3$7KH
SURGXFWLRQRIRWKHUFRPSRQHQWVLVHTXDOO\DPDWWHURIHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQ7KHXVH


RISURFHVVFRQWUROVDQGQHZPDWHULDOVKRZHYHUKDVUHGXFHGWKHVFDOHRIWKHSUREOHP
)RUH[DPSOHWR[LFVROYHQWVRQFHXVHGWRFOHDQFLUFXLWERDUGVKDYHODUJHO\EHHQ
HOLPLQDWHGE\TXDOLW\FRQWUROSURFHVVHV2YHUDOOWKHPDQXIDFWXUHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW
UHVXOWVLQHPLVVLRQVRIDFLGVPHWDOVYRODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVFKORULQDWHGVROYHQWV
DQGRWKHUVXEVWDQFHV,WLVHQHUJ\LQWHQVLYHDQGXVHVODUJHDPRXQWVRIZDWHUIRUFRROLQJ
DQGULQVLQJ0DWWKHZVDOVRVKRZVWKDWDFURVVDYDULHW\RIGLPHQVLRQVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO
SHUIRUPDQFHZDVWHHQHUJ\JUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQVFRPSXWHUPDQXIDFWXUHLV
FUHDWLQJJUHDWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQV0DWWKHZV:LWKUHJDUGWRZDVWHLWKDV
EHHQIRXQGWKDWRIWKHPDWHULDOXVHGLQ3&SURGXFWLRQJRHVLQWRWKHZDVWHVWUHDP
DQGRQO\EHFRPHVSDUWRIWKHSURGXFW+LOW\DQG5XGG\

III.2 Supply chain

,&7VDUHSURGXFHGWKURXJKJOREDOVXSSO\FKDLQV$W\SLFDOSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUFRQWDLQV
FRPSRQHQWVVRXUFHGIURPDURXQGWKHZRUOGDQGW\SLFDOO\WUDQVSRUWHGE\DLU
7KHFRPSOH[LW\DQGVFDOHRIWKHJOREDOHOHFWURQLFVVHFWRUPHDQVWKDWWKHDJJUHJDWH
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIWKHVHVXSSO\FKDLQVDUHODUJH(FRPPHUFHPD\KDYHWKH
HIIHFWERWKRI¶VKULQNLQJ·WKHVXSSO\FKDLQE\HQDEOLQJJUHDWHUFRQWURODQGUHGXFLQJWKH
QXPEHURIVWHSVWKXVEULQJLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOJDLQVEXWLWPD\DOVRKDYHWKHRSSRVLWH
HIIHFWDOORZLQJVXSSO\FKDLQVWREHFRPHPRUH¶JOREDOLVHG·DQGVHJPHQWHG

III.3 Use
,&7GHYLFHVW\SLFDOO\XVHDODUJHDPRXQWRIHOHFWULFLW\$W\SLFDOPHGLXPVL]HG3&
FRQVXPHVDERXW:SHUKRXU%XWUHVLGHQWLDOHQHUJ\XVHLVDOVRJURZLQJWKURXJKWKH
LQWHJUDWLRQRI,&7VLQWRDOOSURGXFWVDQGHYHQFRPPRGLWLHV7KHVHLQFOXGHDGYDQFHG
WHOHYLVLRQDQGDXGLRHTXLSPHQWPRELOHSKRQHVSOD\VWDWLRQVKDQGKHOGSHUVRQDOGLJLWDO
DVVLVWDQWVDQGPDQ\RWKHULQIRUPDWLRQDSSOLDQFHV6HWWRSER[HVLQWHJUDWHGUHFHLYHU
GHFRGHUVDUHSURMHFWHGWRDGGVRPH*:KRISRZHUGHPDQGLQWKH8.E\
DQGPLOOLRQWRQQHVRIFDUERQHPLVVLRQV6WDQGE\ORVVHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHOHFWURQLF
FRQVXPHUJRRGVLQWKHKRPHDUHDQRWKHUPDMRUVRXUFHRISRZHUXVH7KHVHGHYLFHV
SURYLGHLQVWDQWRQFDSDELOLW\DQGDFFRXQWIRUSHUFHQWRIUHVLGHQWLDOHQHUJ\XVH
,($

&RPSXWHUVLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDQGRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQGHYLFHVDUHDOVRWKHODUJHVW
VRXUFHRIJURZWKLQHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLQFRPPHUFLDOEXLOGLQJV8QOLNHSULYDWHO\RZQHG
SHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUVPDQ\SURIHVVLRQDOZRUNVWDWLRQVDQGQHWZRUNVHUYHUVWHQGWRRSHUDWH
RQDKRXUEDVLV7KHVFDOHRIWKHSUREOHPZDVUHYHDOHGODVW\HDUZKHQWKH
FRQVWUXFWLRQRIYDVW´VHUYHUIDUPVµ³ZDUHKRXVHVIXOORIFRPSXWHUVDQGWKHLUDWWHQGDQW
FRROLQJV\VWHPV³KDVFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHRYHUORDGLQJRIWKHHOHFWULFDOSRZHUQHWZRUNWKDW
KDVFDXVHGEURZQRXWVLQ6LOLFRQ9DOOH\(FRQRPLVW,QFRPSDULVRQWKHHQHUJ\
XVHRIQHWZRUNVVHHPVWREHUHODWLYHO\VPDOODOWKRXJKWKLVLVDPDWWHURIGHEDWHLQWKH
OLWHUDWXUH

7KHUHDUHQXPHURXVDWWHPSWVWRUHGXFHWKHHOHFWULFLW\XVHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW3&VDQG
HVSHFLDOO\ODSWRSVRIWHQKDYHDGYDQFHGSRZHUPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVWKDWUHGXFHWKH
HOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQE\LQWURGXFLQJYDULRXV¶ORZSRZHUPRGHV·DIWHUFHUWDLQWLPHRI
LQDFWLYLW\+RZHYHULQFUHDVLQJSHUIRUPDQFHDQGPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\ODUJHUVFUHHQVKDYH
LQWKHSDVWEHHQEDODQFHGRIIRURYHUFRPSHQVDWHGWKHVHHIILFLHQF\JDLQV

$UHFHQWVWXG\HVWLPDWHGWKDWWKHSURGXFWLRQRID3&JHQHUDWHGNJRIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHVDQGNJRI
WRWDOZDVWH$WODQWLF&RQVXOWLQJ
ZZZPWSURJFRP


III.4 Disposal
$FFRUGLQJWR0RRUH·V/DZWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRI,&7GRXEOHVHYHU\PRQWKV7KLV
REVHUYDWLRQKDVVKRZQWREHUHODWLYHO\DFFXUDWHQRWRQO\ZLWKUHJDUGWRSURFHVVRUVSHHG
EXWDOVRPHPRU\FDSDFLW\DQGGDWDWUDQVPLVVLRQVSHHG+LOW\DQG5XGG\
([WUHPHO\UDSLGLQQRYDWLRQF\FOHVKDYHOHGWRDKLJKWXUQRYHURIKDUGZDUHDQGVRIWZDUH
$VDUHVXOWWKHIDVWLQFUHDVLQJVWUHDPRIHOHFWULFDODQGHOHFWURQLFZDVWHDWSUHVHQWRI
PXQLFLSDOZDVWHLQWKH(8KDVDSSHDUHGDVDQLPSRUWDQWLVVXHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDO
SROLF\DJHQGD

7KHPDLQDUHDRIFRQFHUQIRUGLVSRVDOLVWKHPHWDOFRQWHQWRIHOHFWURQLFZDVWH,&7
GHYLFHVW\SLFDOO\FRQWDLQVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWVRIFRSSHUOHDGDQGPHUFXU\&XUUHQW
SURGXFWGHVLJQGRHVQRWDOORZWKHVHSDUDWLRQDQGUHF\FOLQJRIWKHVHPHWDOVZLWKRXW
IXUWKHUWUHDWPHQW$QXPEHURIRWKHUPDWHULDOVVXFKDVIODPHUHWDUGDQWVDQGSODVWLF
VRIWHQHUVDUHDOVRDFDXVHHQYLURQPHQWDOULVNVYDQ'UXQHQDQG2OVWKRRUQ$W
SUHVHQWRQO\DVPDOOPLQRULW\RI,&7KDUGZDUHLVUHF\FOHG,QFUHDVLQJWKHUDWHVRI
UHF\FOLQJDQGUHFRYHU\LVRQHRIWKHPDLQDLPVRIDQHZ(8GLUHFWLYH&20
SURSRVHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ7KHSURSRVHGGLUHFWLYHZRXOGDOVRUHVWULFWWKH
XVHRIFHUWDLQKD]DUGRXVVXEVWDQFHVVXFKDVEURPLQDWHGIODPHUHWDUGDQWVLQQHZ
HTXLSPHQW

$OWKRXJKLPSRUWDQWGDWDJDSVDQGWKHIDVWFKDQJLQJWHFKQRORJ\GRQRWDOORZDUHOLDEOH
RYHUDOODVVHVVPHQWRIWKHVHHIIHFWVLWLWLVZLGHO\UHFRJQLVHGWKDWSURGXFWLRQXVHDQG
GLVSRVDORI,&7VKDYHEHFRPHDVHULRXVHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\LVVXH0DWWKHZVUHSRUWV
WKDWLQWKH86VRPHRIPXQLFLSDOZDVWHLVQRZDFFRXQWHGIRUE\¶ZDVWHIURP
HOHFWULFDODQGHOHFWURQLFHTXLSPHQW·:(((DQGWKDWWKLVSURSRUWLRQLVVHWWRJURZ
0DWWKHZV0XFKRIWKLVPDWHULDOFRXOGEHHFRQRPLFDOO\UHF\FOHGLIHIIHFWLYH
FROOHFWLRQDQGSURFHVVLQJV\VWHPVZHUHLQSODFH7KHVHGLUHFWHIIHFWVPD\KRZHYHUEH
OHVVVLJQLILFDQWWKDQWKHSRWHQWLDOO\PXFKZLGHUDQGGHHSHULQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRILQIRUPDWLRQ
DQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\

IV. Second-order effects of ICTs

,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDUHVHHQWRSURYLGHDODUJHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFHWKHXVHRI
HQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOV7KH\SOD\DNH\UROHLQWKHGHEDWHVDERXWUHVRXUFHHIILFLHQF\RIWHQ
KHOGXQGHUWKHODEHO¶)DFWRU)DFWRU·7KHSURSRQHQWVRIWKLVFRQFHSWFODLPWKDW
DGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHVFDQLPSURYHWKHHFRHIILFLHQF\RIPDQ\SURGXFWVDQGSURFHVVHV
E\VHYHUDOKXQGUHGSHUFHQWDOORZLQJDGHFRXSOLQJRIWKHHFRQRPLFJURZWKFXUYHDQG
WKHHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHFXUYHYRQ:HL]VlFNHUHWDO$OWKRXJKRWKHU
WHFKQRORJLHVDQGVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVDUHDOVRFRQVLGHUHGWREHLPSRUWDQWKLJKHVW
H[SHFWDWLRQVDUHSODFHGRQGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQWKURXJKHOHFWURQLFFRPPXQLFDWLRQ

6LJQLILFDQWHYLGHQFHWRVXSSRUWWKLVDUJXPHQWKDVEHHQSURGXFHGLQDVWXG\LQWRWKH
LPSDFWVRIWKH86,QWHUQHWHFRQRP\RQJOREDOZDUPLQJ5RPP5RPPDUJXHV
WKDWLQDQGDJJUHJDWHHQHUJ\SURGXFWLYLW\LQWKH86HFRQRP\LPSURYHGE\
PRUHWKDQSHUFHQWUHYHUVLQJDWUHQGRIVORZGHFOLQHVLQWKHSUHYLRXVGHFDGH6LPLODUO\
.HOO\DUJXHVWKDWZKLOH86JURVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFWJUHZE\SHUFHQWEHWZHHQ
DQGHQHUJ\XVHJUHZE\OHVVWKDQRQHSHUFHQW7KLVLVVHHQDVDEUHDNZLWK
SDVWWUHQGVWKDWFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHILUVWHYLGHQFHRIZLGHVSUHDGSRVLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDO
LPSDFWVRI,&7V


IV.1 Efficiency gains through ICT use
7KHGHYHORSPHQWSURGXFWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRISURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVLQYROYHKLJKO\
FRPSOH[SURFHVVHVLQZKLFKLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDUHSOD\LQJDQLQFUHDVLQJO\
LPSRUWDQWSDUW,&7VDUHXVHGLQYDULRXVZD\VWRRSWLPLVHWKHLQSXWRIODERXUFDSLWDODQG
QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHV$OWKRXJKGULYHQE\WKHQHHGWRUHGXFHFRVWVWKHRSWLPLVDWLRQRI
SURFHVVHVWKURXJK,&7VKDVE\DQGODUJHEHQHILWHGWKHHQYLURQPHQW7KLVLVQRWRQO\
EHFDXVHPDQ\HQYLURQPHQWDOUHVRXUFHVQHHGWREHSDLGIRUPRVWLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHV
KDYHFKDUJHVIRUZDWHUZDVWHZDWHUZDVWHHOHFWULFLW\EXWDOVREHFDXVHHIILFLHQW
SURFHVVHVWHQGWREHOHVVSROOXWLQJ7KHSRVLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRI,&7VDIIHFW
PDQ\GLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIWKHSURGXFWLRQSURFHVV

IV.1.1 Intelligent production processes

,&7VDOORZWKHVLPXODWLRQRIFRPSOH[SURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVLQRUGHUWRWHVWDQGUHYLHZ
FRVWVPDWHULDOXVHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOHPLVVLRQVRIGHVLJQRSWLRQVEHIRUHV\VWHPVDUH
SXUFKDVHG2QFHLQRSHUDWLRQORZFRVWVHQVRUVWKURXJKRXWDSODQWFRXSOHGZLWK
FRPPXQLFDWLRQQHWZRUNVDQGFRPSXWHUDVVLVWHGFRQWUROVFDQHQVXUHHIILFLHQWDQG
IOH[LEOHRSHUDWLRQ0RGHUQSURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVFDQKDYHWHQVRIWKRXVDQGVRILQGLYLGXDO
PLFURSURFHVVRUVHPEHGGHGLQWKHPFRQWUROOLQJYDOYHVPHDVXULQJWHPSHUDWXUHVVHQVLQJ
WKHFRORXURIIOXLGVDQGSHUIRUPLQJRWKHUWDVNV.HOO\7KHVHGHYLFHVDUH
LQFUHDVLQJO\QHWZRUNHGWRJHWKHULPSURYLQJTXDOLW\VDIHW\DQGUHGXFLQJZDVWH7RGD\XS
WRRIWKHYDOXHRIDQHZPDQXIDFWXULQJSURFHVVLQWKHSXOSDQGSDSHULQGXVWU\IRU
LQVWDQFHLVDFFRXQWHGIRUE\FRQWUROV\VWHPV3UHFLVHHOHFWURQLFFRQWUROLVHVVHQWLDOIRU
PLQLPLVLQJHPLVVLRQV,PSURYHGFRQWUROVPHDQIRUH[DPSOHWKDWPDWHULDOLVQRWZDVWHG
EHFDXVHDFKHPLFDOSURFHVVLVQRWFRPSOHWHGRUEHFDXVHHUURUVJRXQGHWHFWHGSURGXFLQJ
EDWFKHVRIXQXVDEOHSURGXFW:DVWHLVXVXDOO\DQLQGLFDWRURILQHIILFLHQF\DQGSRRU
SURFHVVGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQ5HVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWVRIWKLVW\SHKDYH
EHHQDFKLHYHGFRQVLVWHQWO\LQLQGXVWU\VLQFHFRPSXWHUVZHUHILUVWLQWURGXFHGLQWR
PDQXIDFWXULQJRYHU\HDUVDJR,QWKLVVHQVHWKH\DUHQRWQHZDWDOODQGKLVWRULFDO
WUHQGVVXJJHVWWKDWWKH\OHDGWRSURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWVRISHUFHQWSHUDQQXP
%HUNKRXWHWDO

IV.1.2 Intelligent design and operation of products and services

%HWWHUGHVLJQ
7KHXVHRIGHVLJQVRIWZDUHDQGVLPXODWLRQWRROVOHDGVWRDUHGXFWLRQLQZDVWHLQ
SURGXFWLRQDQGRSHUDWLRQJHQHUDWHVSURGXFWVWKDWDUHPRUH¶ILWIRUXVH·DQGOHVV
ZDVWHIXODQGSURGXFWVWKDWHPERG\PRUHLQQRYDWLRQLQFOXGLQJLQQRYDWLRQVWKDWDUH
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\EHQHILFLDO&RPSXWHU$LGHG'HVLJQ&$'KDVEHHQDIHDWXUHRIGHVLJQ
IRUSURGXFWVDQGSURFHVVHVIRUVRPH\HDUVDQGLWLVE\QRZSHUYDVLYH&RQFHSWVVXFK
DV¶GHVLJQIRUWKHHQYLURQPHQW·DQG¶GHVLJQIRUUHF\FOLQJ·FDQEHLQWHJUDWHGPRUHUHDGLO\
LQWRLQQRYDWLRQSURFHVVHVXVLQJWKHVHGHVLJQDQGVLPXODWLRQWRROV6SHFLILFHIIHFWVDUH
GLIILFXOWWRPHDVXUHDQGWKHUHODWLYHVLJQLILFDQFHRIGHVLJQVRIWZDUHLVGLIILFXOWWR
GLVHQWDQJOHIURPRWKHUGHYHORSPHQWVVXFKDVDGYDQFHVLQQHZPDWHULDOVDQGPHWDOOXUJ\

:HOOZRUQH[DPSOHVRIWKLVGHVLJQGULYHQGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQLQFOXGHUHGXFWLRQVLQWKH
ZHLJKWRIGULQNVFDQV'ULQNVFDQVWRGD\XVHVRPHSHUFHQWOHVVDOXPLQLXPWKDQWKH\
GLGLQ&0$ZKLOHUHGXFWLRQVLQWKHZHLJKWRIVWHHOFDQVKDYHEHHQHTXDOO\
GUDPDWLF6LPLODUO\LWKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGWKDWWKH6HDUVWRZHULQ&KLFDJRFRXOGEHEXLOW
WRGD\ZLWKSHUFHQWOHVVVWHHOWKDQLWZDVLQ$,6,2WKHUH[DPSOHVLQFOXGH


EHWWHUGHVLJQRIDLUFUDIWHQJLQHVDQGDLUIUDPHVWKDWFDQSURYLGHIXHOVDYLQJVE\
DQGVDYLQJVE\

&RQWUROVLQSURGXFWV
0DQ\FRPSOH[SURGXFWVFDUVFRQVXPHUGXUDEOHVFRQWDLQPLFURSURFHVVRUFRQWUROVWKDW
HQDEOHWKHPWRUHVSRQGWRFKDQJLQJFRQGLWLRQVRISHUIRUPDQFHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRQGLWLRQV(PEHGGHGFRQWUROVLPSURYHWKHIXQFWLRQDOLW\RIWKHSURGXFWEXWDOVR
LQIOXHQFHWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFH$OOFRQVXPHUJRRGVDQGLQIXWXUHDOVROHVV
FRPSOH[SURGXFWVOLNHZLQGRZVHPERG\PLFURSURFHVVRUVWRFRQWUROWKHLUEHKDYLRXU
XQGHUYDULDEOHFRQGLWLRQV$PRQJVWRWKHUWKLQJVWKH\FRQWUROHPLVVLRQVWRWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDQGWKHXVHRIKHDWZDWHUDQGRWKHULQSXWV0RGHUQHQJLQHFRQWURO
V\VWHPVKDYHEHHQHVVHQWLDOIRUPHHWLQJFDUHQJLQHHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGVIRUWKHSDVW
GHFDGHDWOHDVW$GYDQFHGFRQWUROV\VWHPVDUHDOVRFULWLFDOIRUPDQDJLQJWKHVRSKLVWLFDWHG
QHZK\EULGDQGIXHOFHOOWHFKQRORJLHVEHLQJGHYHORSHGWRLPSURYHWKHIXHOHIILFLHQF\RI
FDUV.HOO\7KHVHQHZV\VWHPVZLOOQHHGWRFRQWUROWKHFKDUJLQJDQGGLVFKDUJLQJ
RIEDWWHULHVDQGQHZHQHUJ\VWRUDJHV\VWHPVUHFRYHULQJHQHUJ\IURPEUDNHVFRQWUROOLQJ
HOHFWURQLFWUDQVPLVVLRQVRSWLPLVLQJSRZHUIURPHOHFWULFPRWRUVDQGIXHOEXUQLQJHQJLQHV
DQGRWKHURSHUDWLRQV

2WKHUH[DPSOHVFRPHIURPWKHVHUYLFHLQGXVWULHVPDQ\RIZKRVHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWV
UHVXOWIURPWKHHQHUJ\XVHGLQEXLOGLQJV7RJHWKHUUHVLGHQWLDODQGFRPPHUFLDOEXLOGLQJV
XVHDERXWDWKLUGRIDOO86HQHUJ\DQGPRUHWKDQWZRWKLUGVRIDOOHOHFWULFLW\,QIRUPDWLRQ
V\VWHPVSURYLGHNH\WRROVIRULPSURYLQJWKHHIILFLHQF\RIEXLOGLQJVDQGEXLOGLQJ
FRPSRQHQWV,PSURYHGKHDWLQJDQGFRROLQJFRQWUROVFDQHQVXUHWKDWEXLOGLQJVDUHPRUH
FRPIRUWDEOHIRUHDFKRFFXSDQWWKH\FDQDOVROHDGWRPDMRUHQHUJ\VDYLQJV6LPSOH
FRQWUROV\VWHPVFDQSURYLGHVDYLQJVEXWWKLVLVRQO\DEHJLQQLQJ/LNHZLVH
ZLQGRZVDUHFRQVLGHUHGORZWHFKQRORJ\EXWFRXSOHGZLWKLQWHOOLJHQWFRQWUROVWKH\FDQ
KDYHDPDMRULPSDFWRQHQHUJ\XVH$UWLILFLDOOLJKWLQJFDQEHFXWWKURXJKFRQWUROV\VWHPV
ZKHQRXWGRRUOLJKWLVDGHTXDWHDQGDXWRPDWHGGLPPHUVZKHQWKHUHLVOLWWOHDPELHQWOLJKW

9LUWXDOLVDWLRQ
%H\RQGHIILFLHQF\JDLQVVXEVWLWXWLRQVRILQIRUPDWLRQIRUPDWHULDOVDQGHQHUJ\KDVDOVR
EHHQSURSRVHGDVOHDGLQJWRHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWV6XEVWLWXWLRQVPD\EHSDUWLDO
GHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQRUFRPSOHWHYLUWXDOLVDWLRQ7KHFOHDUHVWFDVHVRIWKHVHHIIHFWVDUHRI
VXEVWLWXWLRQVRIGLJLWDOLQIRUPDWLRQIRU¶WUDGLWLRQDO·PHGLDSDSHU&'VDQVZHULQJ
PDFKLQHVHWF0RUHEURDGO\WKHDUJXPHQWLVPDGHWKDWSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUVDQGRWKHU
GHYLFHVZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHHDVHZLWKZKLFKLQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHDVVLPLODWHGDQG
FRPPXQLFDWHGWKHUHE\UHGXFLQJWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVDQGHOLPLQDWLQJPDQ\RIWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKSDSHUEDVHGWUDQVDFWLRQV

3ULQW3DSHUEDVHGFDWDORJXHVGLUHFWRULHVGLFWLRQDULHVHQF\FORSHGLDVQHZVSDSHUVDQG
PDJD]LQHVDUHDOOEHOLHYHGWREHXQGHUSUHVVXUHIURPFKHDSHUPRUHDFFHVVLEOHDQGPRUH
HDVLO\UHWULHYHGDQGXSGDWHGVRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQRQWKH,QWHUQHW7KH%RVWRQ
&RQVXOWLQJ*URXS%&*SURGXFHGDFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHYLHZRILPSDFWVRI
HOHFWURQLFPHGLDRQSDSHUXVHLQWKH867KH\LQYHVWLJDWHGLPSDFWVRQGLIIHUHQW
VHJPHQWVRIWKHSDSHUPDUNHWILQGLQJWKDWLQPRVWFDVHVWKHUHZRXOGEHHLWKHUGLUHFWRU
LQGLUHFWSUHVVXUHVWHQGLQJWROHDGWRDUHGXFWLRQLQGHPDQG)RULQVWDQFHWKH\IRXQGWKDW
QHZVSDSHUVZHUHYXOQHUDEOHWRHOHFWURQLFVXEVWLWXWLRQE\WKH,QWHUQHWRQJURXQGVRIFRVW
DQGDFFHVVLELOLW\,WDSSHDUVWKDWSHRSOHKDYHEHFRPHPRUHFRPIRUWDEOHUHDGLQJWH[WLQ
HOHFWURQLFIRUPDQGWKLVLVOLNHO\WREHDJURZLQJWUHQGLQIXWXUH5RPP2QOLQH
QHZVSDSHUDQGPDJD]LQHVDUHFKHDSHUEHFDXVHWKH\GRQRWKDYHWRVXSSRUWWKUHHRIWKH


PDMRUH[SHQVHVRIWKHSULQWEXVLQHVVQHZVSULQWGLVWULEXWLRQDQGSULQWLQJFRVWV7KH
%&*VWXG\DOVRGHWHFWHGDQLQGLUHFWHIIHFWRQQHZVSDSHUVWKURXJKSUHVVXUHRQ
DGYHUWLVLQJUHYHQXHVDSURSRUWLRQRIZKLFKZLOOQRZEHWDNHQE\WKH,QWHUQHW2QWKH
RWKHUKDQGWKHVHKLJKHUFRVWVDQGGHFOLQLQJUHYHQXHVZLOOWRVRPHH[WHQWEH
FRXQWHUEDODQFHGE\FRVWVDYLQJVWKDWDUHLQWURGXFHGWKURXJKWKHLQFUHDVLQJGLJLWDOLVDWLRQ
RISULQWSURFHVVHV$OORIWKHVHIDFWRUVDUHSUHGLFWHGWRSOD\DPDMRUUROHLQDGHFOLQHLQ
SDSHUEDVHGFDWDORJXHVGLUHFWRULHVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQEDVHGERRNV%&*SUHGLFWVWKDWWKH
FRQWUDU\WUHQG²WKHJUHDWHUXVHRIRIILFHSDSHUVWRSULQWRXWLQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKH:HE
RQGHVNWRSSULQWHUV²ZLOOEHRXWZHLJKHGE\VXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWV

$XGLR7KHFRQVXPSWLRQRIPXVLFRIIHUVDVLJQLILFDQWSRWHQWLDOIRUYLUWXDOLVDWLRQ
'RZQORDGLQJRIPXVLFLQGLJLWDOIRUPDWIRUH[DPSOH03LVRQHRIWKHPRVWSRSXODU
XVHVRIWKH,QWHUQHW$OWKRXJKDIDVW,QWHUQHWFRQQHFWLRQDQGVXIILFLHQWPHPRU\FDSDFLW\
DUHUHTXLUHGDODUJHQXPEHURISHRSOHH[FKDQJHGLJLWDOPXVLFILOHVYLDVSHFLDOLVHG
,QWHUQHWVLWHV'LJLWDOPXVLFFDQEHSOD\HGZLWKIUHHO\DYDLODEOHVRIWZDUHDQGGRHVQRW
UHTXLUHDQ\GHYLFHVRURWKHUWDQJLEOHPHGLD2QFHDJDLQDFULWLFDOXQDQVZHUHGTXHVWLRQLV
KRZIDUWKHVHQHZWHFKQRORJLHVZLOOVXEVWLWXWHIRUH[LVWLQJPHGLDDQGWKHUHIRUHKDYH
HQYLURQPHQWDOEHQILWVRUZKHWKHUWKH\PD\VWLPXODWHDJUHDWHUGHPDQGIRUQHZGHYLFHV
VXFKDV03SOD\HUVPLQLGLVNSOD\HUVRU&'ZULWHUVHDFKHPERG\LQJQHZ
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVLQSURGXFWLRQXVHDQGGLVSRVDO

3KRWRYLGHR7KHVXEVWLWXWLRQRIFKHPLFDOO\SURFHVVHGSKRWRJUDSKLFLPDJHVE\GLJLWDOO\
SURFHVVHGLPDJHVLVDQRWKHUH[DPSOHRIGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ'LJLWDOSKRWRJUDSK\IRU
DPDWHXUSURIHVVLRQDODQGPHGLFDOLQGXVWULDOXVHVDYRLGVWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRI
ILOPPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGSURFHVVLQJ1HYLQ'LJLWDOFDPHUDVUHFRUGDQGVWRUH
SKRWRJUDSKLFLPDJHVLQHOHFWURQLFIRUPUDWKHUWKDQFKHPLFDOO\RQSDSHU7UDQVPLVVLRQ
RISLFWXUHVDQGSKRWRJUDSKLFPDWHULDOVZRXOGDOVREHDYRLGHG)RUSURIHVVLRQDOXVHV
GLJLWDOLPDJHVDUHHDVLHUWRPDQLSXODWHDQGUHFRUGDQGPD\OHDGWRUHVRXUFHVDYLQJV$
UHFHQWVWXG\VXJJHVWHGWKDWGLJLWLVDWLRQRIUDGLRJUDSK\ZRXOGOHDGWRVDYLQJVLQ;UD\
ILOPDQGUHGXFWLRQVLQWKHXVHRIGHYHORSHUDQGIL[HU,67

IV.1.3 Intelligent distribution and logistics4

,QFUHDVLQJVXSSO\FKDLQHIILFLHQF\
,QFUHDVHGFRGLILFDWLRQRINQRZOHGJHDQGFRRUGLQDWLRQHQDEOHGE\LQIRUPDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJ\KDVKHOSHGWRPDNHVXSSO\FKDLQVPRUHHIILFLHQW,QWKH86IRUH[DPSOHWKH
DYHUDJHVWRFNWXUQZDVD\HDULQEXWUHDFKHGLQ7KHQHWHIIHFWRIWKLV
ZDVDIDOOLQLQYHQWRU\WRVDOHVUDWLRWRDUHFRUGORZRI:(5&5HGXFHGDQG
IDVWHUPRYLQJLQYHQWRU\WUDQVODWHVLQWRVLJQLILFDQWDOEHLWRQHRIIUHGXFWLRQVLQZDVWDJH
OHYHOV0DUNHWSUHVVXUHVFRXOGDOVRGULYHIXUWKHULPSURYHPHQWV(OHFWURQLFEXVLQHVVWR
EXVLQHVV%%SURFXUHPHQWH[FKDQJHVDQGUHYHUVHDXFWLRQVVHHNWRUHGXFHFRVWV
LQYHQWRU\DQGZDVWDJHZLWKLQWKHVXSSO\FKDLQDQGLQFUHDVHXWLOLVDWLRQRIH[LVWLQJ
FDSDFLW\7KHWZRODWWHUIDFWRUVFUHDWHGLUHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVWKURXJKUHVRXUFH
SURGXFWLYLW\JDLQV²UHGXFHGHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOVXVHDQGZDVWDJH+RZHYHUVRPH
HIILFLHQF\JDLQVFRXOGEHRIIVHWE\GHPDQGIRUKLJKVSHHGDQGMXVWLQWLPHGHOLYHU\
ZKLFKZRXOGWHQGWRORZHUUDWHVRIYHKLFOHXWLOLVDWLRQ:KLFKRIWKHVHWUHQGVSUHYDLOV
GHSHQGVWRVRPHH[WHQWRQSULFHVWUXFWXUHVDQGWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV

7KLVVHFWLRQGUDZVKHDYLO\RQ3+RSNLQVRQDQG3-DPHV9LUWXDO7UDIILF8QLYHUVLW\RI%UDGIRUG
$YHUDJHVWRFNWXUQLVDPHDVXUHRIWKHUDWHDWZKLFKSURGXFWVDUHVROGWKURXJKUHWDLORXWOHWV$KLJKHU
VWRFNWXUQGHQRWHVDPRUHHIILFLHQWRSHUDWLRQ


+RPHVKRSSLQJ
6KRSSLQJDFFRXQWVIRUDVXEVWDQWLDOSDUWRISHUVRQDOWUDYHOHJLQ%ULWDLQ
&RPSOHWHUHSODFHPHQWRIFDUEDVHGVKRSSLQJWULSVE\,QWHUQHWRUGHULQJDQGYDQEDVHG
GHOLYHU\FRXOGUHGXFHGLVWDQFHWUDYHOOHG²E\WRDFFRUGLQJWRRQHVLPXODWLRQ
&DLUQV+RZHYHUFRPSOHWHUHSODFHPHQWLVKLJKO\XQOLNHO\7KHUHWDLOVHFWRUDOVR
KDVDVWURQJLQWHUHVWDQGQHZWHFKQLTXHVWRGLYHUWWLPHDQGFRVWVDYLQJVLQWRIXUWKHU
VKRSSLQJ3HRSOHVKRSQRWRQO\WREX\VSHFLILFJRRGVEXWIRUDYDULHW\RIRWKHUUHDVRQV
VXFKDVVRFLDOLQWHUDFWLRQH[FLWHPHQWDQGFUHDWLQJDQGPDLQWDLQLQJSHUVRQDOLGHQWLW\
0DQ\IRUHFDVWHUVSUHGLFWWKDWIXWXUHVWRUHVZLOOSODFHPRUHHPSKDVLVRQWKH¶H[SHULHQFH·
RIVKRSSLQJUDWKHUWKDQVLPSO\SURYLGLQJWKHPDUNHWFRQWH[WIRUSXUFKDVLQJ7KHOLPLWHG
VXUYH\HYLGHQFHRIFRQVXPHUUHVSRQVHVWRKRPHVKRSSLQJKDVIRXQGWKDWWKH\UHSRUWHG
OHVVXVHRIFDUV&DLUQV$JDLQVWWKLVHYLGHQFHIURPGHGLFDWHGJURFHU\SLFNLQJ
FHQWUHVLQWKH8.LQGLFDWHVWKDWLQWKHILUVWSKDVHRIRSHUDWLRQVIOHHWDQGYHKLFOH
XWLOLVDWLRQZHUHYHU\ORZGXHWRORZHUWKDQH[SHFWHGGHPDQGDQGDFRQVHTXHQWORZHU
GURSGHQVLW\

$EXVLQHVVPRGHOZKLFKFRQVLJQHGORZPDUJLQVWDSOHVWR,QWHUQHWRUGHULQJDQGGHOLYHU\
DQGUHSODFHGWKHPRQWKHVKHOYHVZLWKPRUHLQWHUHVWLQJKLJKHUPDUJLQJRRGVZRXOGEH
KLJKO\SURILWDEOHIRUFXUUHQWUHWDLOFKDLQV,WLVDOVRSRVVLEOHWKDWWKH,QWHUQHWPLJKW
SURGXFHDQ¶XQEXQGOLQJ·RIPXOWLSOHRUGHUVZKLFKIRUFRQYHQLHQFHZHUHSUHYLRXVO\
PDGHIURPDVLQJOHORFDWLRQ7KLVFRXOGPHDQWKDWDVLQJOHFDUWULSLVUHSODFHGE\D
QXPEHURIYDQGHOLYHULHVOHDGLQJWRDPDMRULQFUHDVHLQGHOLYHU\XQLWV0DUNHUDQG
*RXOLDV

7KHWUDQVSRUWLPSOLFDWLRQVRIUHWDLOHFRPPHUFHZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHGHWDLOVRIORJLVWLFV
DQGWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV7KHVHDUHVWLOOLQDQH[SHULPHQWDOSKDVHEHFDXVHEXVLQHVVWR
FRQVXPHUHFRPPHUFHLVLQDEVROXWHWHUPVVWLOODYHU\VPDOOPDUNHWOHVVWKHQRIUHWDLO
VDOHVLQWKH86LQ7KHHQYLURQPHQWDORXWFRPHVUHPDLQWKHUHIRUHKLJKO\
VSHFXODWLYH&DLUQVKDVLGHQWLILHGVL[NH\IDFWRUVZKLFKDUHOLNHO\WRLQIOXHQFHWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIKRPHVKRSSLQJ

5HWXUQV²ZKLFKFUHDWHWKHQHHGIRUDGGLWLRQDOMRXUQH\VDQGGHOLYHU\RI
UHSODFHPHQWVDQGDUHSRWHQWLDOO\KLJKHUZLWKKRPHVKRSSLQJEHFDXVHRIWKH
DEVHQFHRIDQ\SK\VLFDOFRQWDFWZLWKJRRGVEHIRUHSXUFKDVHDQGPDQ\YHQGRU·V
FRPPLWPHQWWRHDV\UHWXUQ

&RVWVWUXFWXUHV²DWDJHQHUDOOHYHOZKHWKHUWKHVHUHIOHFWWKHIXOOHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWXVHGDQGPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\ZKHWKHUWKH\HQFRXUDJHGHOLYHULHV
RIVPDOOYDOXHDQGZHLJKWDQGHQFRXUDJHGHOLYHULHVDWQRQFRQJHVWHGWLPHV

'HOLYHU\ORFDWLRQV²ZLWKWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWKRPHVWRUDJHXQLWVORFDOSLFNXS
SRLQWVDQGVKDUHGGLVWULEXWLRQFKDQQHOVFRXOGUHGXFHUHWXUQVDQGRUPRYHPHQWV
RIGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHV

9HKLFOHXVH²WKHPRGHXVHGDQGIRUURDGYHKLFOHVWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKH\XVH
FRQYHQWLRQDORUDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVKDYHDGYDQFHGHQJLQHVDQGHPLVVLRQFRQWURO
V\VWHPVDUHZHOOGULYHQDQGPDLQWDLQHG


 5RXWLQJDQGVFKHGXOLQJRSWLPLVDWLRQ²EDVHGRQVRSKLVWLFDWHGVRIWZDUHV\VWHPV
DQGDFFXUDWHJOREDOSRVLWLRQLQJV\VWHP*36GDWDWRWUDFNDFWXDOYHKLFOH
ORFDWLRQV

/RDGFRQVROLGDWLRQ²VKDULQJRIGLVWULEXWLRQIDFLOLWLHVDQGGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHVWR
LQFUHDVHXWLOLVDWLRQDQGUHGXFHWKHDPRXQWRIYHKLFOHPRYHPHQWVDQGZDUHKRXVH
VSDFHUHTXLUHG

5HFHQWVWXGLHVLQWKLVDUHD7/1,671(5$0DWWKHZVHWDO
LQGLFDWHWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHRXWFRPHVWRWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGH8QWLOWKHUHLV
PRUHHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHRQKRZFXVWRPHUVUHVSRQGWRKRPHVKRSSLQJDQGZKDW
GHOLYHU\SDWWHUQVVXSSOLHUVXVHLWLVLPSRVVLEOHWRYDOLGDWHRUGLVSURYHFODLPVPDGHDERXW
QHWLPSDFWV

$OWHUQDWLYHGLVWULEXWLRQVWUXFWXUHV
(EXVLQHVVFUHDWHVDQRSSRUWXQLW\IRUDPRUHFRPPXQLW\EDVHGGLVWULEXWLRQVWUXFWXUH
DQGDUHYHUVDORIWKHPRYHWR¶RXWRIWRZQ·GHYHORSPHQWZKLFKKDVRFFXUUHGRYHU
UHFHQWGHFDGHV7KHKLJKFRVWRIGLVWULEXWLQJJRRGVWRKRPHV²ERWKEHFDXVHRIORZ
GURSRIIGHQVLWLHVLQUHVLGHQWLDODUHDVDQGKLJKOHYHOVRIUHWXUQVLVWKH$FKLOOHVKHHORI
%&HFRPPHUFH-DFNVRQ-RQHV2QHUHVSRQVHFRXOGEHQHWZRUNVRIGURS
RIISRLQWVWREHXVHGZKHQSHRSOHDUHQRWDWKRPHDQGRUDVWKHSULPDU\GLVWULEXWLRQ
SRLQWZLWKWKHLQFHQWLYHEHLQJORZHUFKDUJHV*UDQGD

7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURIRSWLRQVIRUWKLVQHWZRUN)RUH[LVWLQJSUHPLVHVWKHVHLQFOXGH
VXSHUVWRUHVVKRSSLQJFHQWUHVDQGRWKHUUHWDLOFHQWUHV&71VFRQIHFWLRQHU\WREDFFRDQG
QHZVRXWOHWVFRQYHQLHQFHVWRUHVYLOODJHVWRUHVSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWQRGHVYLOODJHVWRUHV
FRPPXQLW\KDOOVDQGVFKRROV,WKDVDOVREHHQVXJJHVWHGWKDWSXUSRVHGHVLJQHGIDFLOLWLHV
FRXOGEHEXLOWRQEXVLQHVVSDUNVDWPDMRUHPSOR\PHQWVLWHVGULYHLQVKRSSLQJFHQWUHV
SDUNDQGULGHVFKHPHVDQGZDUHKRXVHVLWHV

2QHVWULNLQJIHDWXUHRIPDQ\RIWKHGLVFXVVLRQVRIFROOHFWLRQWRGDWHLVWKDWFDUDFFHVVLVD
SULPDU\FULWHULRQ:KLOHWKLVLVREYLRXVO\LPSRUWDQWHVSHFLDOO\IRUEXON\JRRGVQR
HTXLYDOHQWDWWHQWLRQLVSDLGWRF\FOLQJRUZDONLQJDVDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRIFROOHFWLRQ
1HLWKHUKDVWKHUHEHHQPXFKGLVFXVVLRQRI¶FRPPXQLW\GLVWULEXWLRQPRGHOV·DLPHGDW
PLQLPLVLQJYHKLFOHPRYHPHQWVSDUWLFXODUO\LQUHVLGHQWLDODUHDV2QHSRVVLELOLW\LVWKDW
WKH\EHFRPHORFDOPHHWLQJSODFHVZKLFKSURYLGHDQDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRIPHHWLQJVRPH
RIWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWVRIVKRSSLQJVXFKDVVRFLDOLQWHUDFWLRQ

*HRJUDSKLFH[WHQVLRQRIVXSSO\SDWWHUQV
7KHLQFUHDVHGRUGHULQJRSWLRQVZKLFKHEXVLQHVVSURYLGHVWRERWKEXVLQHVVDQG
FRQVXPHUVZLOOUHVXOWLQPRUHJHRJUDSKLFDOO\H[WHQGHGVXSSO\SDWWHUQVDQGWKHUHIRUH
KLJKHUWUDQVSRUWLQWHQVLW\RIJRRGV7KHUHLVFRQVLGHUDEOHHYLGHQFHWKDWWKLVLVKDSSHQLQJ
DWDJOREDOVFDOH7KHEHVWREMHFWLYHLQGLFDWRULVWKHKLJKUDWHRIJURZWKRIDLUIUHLJKW
FXUUHQWO\SHU\HDUZKLFKLVEHLQJSDUWLDOO\GULYHQE\HEXVLQHVV/RERDQG=DLUL
7KHJURZLQJVRSKLVWLFDWLRQRIVSHFLDOLVHGVXSSO\FKDLQPDQDJHPHQWE\ERWK
LPSRUWHUVDQGH[SRUWHUVDQGWKHFUHDWLRQRIRQOLQHPDUNHWVLQPRVWVHFWRUVLVOLNHO\WR
VWUHQJWKHQWKLVWUHQG

(EXVLQHVVGULYHQWUDGHZRXOGEHOHVVWUDQVSRUWLQWHQVLYHLIPRUHJRRGVFRXOGEHVKLSSHG
E\VHDDQGUDLOUDWKHUWKDQDLUDQGURDG+RZHYHUHFRPPHUFHXVXDOO\GHPDQGVIDVWDQG
KLJKO\IOH[LEOHVXSSO\FKDLQVZKHUHDVUDLODQGVHDWUDQVSRUWDUHWKHVORZHVWDQGOHDVW


IOH[LEOHPRGHVZLWKKLJKLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRVWVDQGDUHOLDQFHRQUHJXODUYROXPH
VKLSPHQWV7KLVLQKHUHQWGLVDGYDQWDJHLVFRPSRXQGHGE\WKHVORZHUSHQHWUDWLRQRIH
EXVLQHVVZLWKLQWKHUDLODQGPDULWLPHVHFWRUV

)UDJPHQWHGVXSSO\EDVH
2QOLQHRUGHULQJZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHQXPEHURIVXSSOLHUVDQGGHFUHDVHDYHUDJHRUGHUVL]HV
PDNLQJLWKDUGHUWRDOORFDWHHQYLURQPHQWDOUHVSRQVLELOLW\WRFKDLQPHPEHUV2YHUWKHODVW
GHFDGHWKHJHQHUDOWUHQGLQVXSSO\FKDLQVKDVEHHQWRZRUNZLWKIHZHUVXSSOLHUV
HVSHFLDOO\IRUNH\¶ILUVWWLHU·VXSSOLHUVZKRRIWHQFRRUGLQDWHWKHLQSXWVRI¶VHFRQGWLHU·
VXSSOLHUV+RZHYHUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI%%HFRPPHUFH¶SODWIRUPV·PDNHVLWHDVLHUWR
VRXUFHIURPDODUJHUQXPEHUDQGZLGHUJHRJUDSKLFUDQJHRIVXSSOLHUV7KLVLVHVSHFLDOO\
WUXHRIWKHPDLQWHQDQFHUHSDLUDQGRSHUDWLQJLWHPVDQGFRPPRGLWLHVZKLFKIRUPWKH
EXONRI%%SXUFKDVHVE\YDOXH7KHPDLQGULYHULVDVHDUFKIRUORZHUWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWV
LQVRXUFLQJLWHPVDQGFRQWUDFWLQJIRUWKHLUSXUFKDVH

7KHRUJDQLVDWLRQDODQGSHUVRQDOWLHVEHWZHHQFXVWRPHUVDQGVXSSOLHUVPD\EHZHDNHQHG
E\%%H[FKDQJHVPDNLQJLWGLIILFXOWIRULQGLYLGXDOFXVWRPHUVWRH[HUWLQIRUPDOSUHVVXUH
IRULPSURYHPHQW7KHEHVWPHDQVRIRYHUFRPLQJWKHVHIRUFHVLVOLNHO\WREHSUH
TXDOLILFDWLRQSURFHGXUHVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOSHUIRUPDQFH$QDOWHUQDWLYHRU
FRPSOHPHQWDU\RSWLRQZRXOGEHWRUHTXLUHEX\HUVWRSURYLGHHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDO
LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHJRRGVWKH\DUHVHOOLQJSHUKDSVEDVHGRQVWDQGDUGLVHGSDUDPHWHUV
+RZHYHUWKHFRVWUHGXFWLRQIRFXVRIH[FKDQJHVDQGWKHGDQJHUVRIYLRODWLQJIUHHWUDGH
UHJXODWLRQVPD\UHTXLUHVRPHNLQGRISROLF\LQWHUYHQWLRQWRDFKLHYHLW

IV.1.4 Changing seller-buyer relationships

0DVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQ
0DVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQ²SURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVWKDWPDQXIDFWXUHSURGXFWVIRULQGLYLGXDO
FRQVXPHUV²KDVEHHQSURSRVHGDVDIXWXUHRUJDQLVLQJSULQFLSOHRIEXVLQHVVMXVWDVPDVV
SURGXFWLRQE\DVVHPEO\OLQHZDVWKHRUJDQLVLQJEXVLQHVVSULQFLSOHXQGHU)RUGLVP,QWKH
PDVVSURGXFWLRQPRGHOEXVLQHVVHVPDLQWDLQDRQHWRPDQ\UHODWLRQVKLSZLWK
FRQVXPHUV&RQVXPHUGHPDQGLVSUHGLFWHGDQGDOLPLWHGQXPEHURISURGXFWOLQHVDUH
GHYHORSHGWRPHHWWKDWGHPDQG7KURXJKEUDQGLQJDQGDGYHUWLVLQJFRQVXPHUVDUH
HQFRXUDJHGWREX\JRRGVWKDWKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQPDQXIDFWXUHGDQGDUHVWRFNHGRQVWRUH
VKHOYHV,QVWDEOHFRPPRGLWLVHGPDUNHWVWKLVPRGHOZRUNVZHOO%XWWKHUHDUHPDQ\
RSSRUWXQLWLHVIRULQHIILFLHQF\QHZSURGXFWOLQHVWKDWGRQ
WVHOORYHUSURGXFWLRQGXHWR
VKLIWVLQWDVWHRUWKHHFRQRP\QHZWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWUHQGHUSURGXFWVREVROHWH1HYLQ


,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHWPDNHPDVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQSRVVLEOHEHFDXVHWKH\HQDEOHDULFK
H[FKDQJHRILQIRUPDWLRQEHWZHHQFRPSDQLHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOFXVWRPHUVZKHWKHUSULYDWH
RUFRPPHUFLDO7KHSULPDU\HIIHFWFDQEHWRGUDPDWLFDOO\UHGXFHLQYHQWRULHV$V'HOO
FRPSXWHUVKDVVKRZQLQIDVWPRYLQJLQGXVWULHVOLNHHOHFWURQLFVZKHUHWKHYDOXHRI
FRPSXWHUFKLSVDQGRWKHUFRPSRQHQWVGHSUHFLDWHVGD\E\GD\WKHUHDUHFOHDUEXVLQHVV
EHQHILWVWRUHGXFLQJVWRFNSLOHVRIVRRQWREHREVROHVFHQWHTXLSPHQWDQGPDFKLQHV

6HYHUDOHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGIRUPDVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQ)LUVW
SURGXFWLRQFDQEHPDWFKHGPRUHWLJKWO\WRFRQVXPHUGHPDQGUHGXFLQJWKHHQHUJ\
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKZDUHKRXVLQJSURGXFWV6HFRQGH[FHVVLQYHQWRULHVDQGWKHZDVWH
HPERGLHGLQWKHPZRXOGEHUHGXFHG7KLUGSURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVFRXOGEHGHVLJQHGWR


ILWWKHIXQFWLRQDOLW\GHVLUHGE\WKHFRQVXPHUPRUHDFFXUDWHO\VRLPSURYLQJWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOHIILFLHQF\ZLWKZKLFKLWLVXVHG)RXUWKWKHSURGXFHUFRXOGEH
WUDQVIRUPHGLQWRDSURYLGHURIVHUYLFHVWRWKHILQDOFRQVXPHURIIHULQJQHZEXVLQHVV
RSSRUWXQLWLHVZKLOHDOVRFUHDWLQJWKHFRQGLWLRQVIRURZQHUVKLSDQGUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRU
SURGXFWVGHOLYHULQJVHUYLFHVWRUHPDLQZLWKWKHVHUYLFHSURYLGHU6RPHDXWKRUVKDYH
VXJJHVWHGWKDWWKLVPD\SUHVDJHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI¶FORVHGORRS·SURGXFWDQGVHUYLFH
V\VWHPVLQZKLFKSURGXFHUVKDYHLQFHQWLYHVWRUHGXFHWKHUHVRXUFHFRVWDQG
HQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQRIWKHVHUYLFHVWKH\SURYLGH

IV.1.5 Work organisation

7HOHFRPPXWLQJDQGWHOHZRUNLQJ
7KHPDMRUK\SRWKHVLVHGHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVRIWHOHFRPPXWLQJDQGWHOHZRUNLQJ
7 7DUHWKHUHGXFHGQHHGIRURIILFHVSDFHOHDGLQJWRHQHUJ\VDYLQJVDQGDUHGXFHG
QXPEHURIMRXUQH\VWRZRUNSURGXFLQJHQHUJ\VDYLQJVUHGXFHGDLUSROOXWLRQDQG
UHGXFWLRQVLQFRQJHVWLRQ:KLOHWKHVHVDYLQJVPD\EHDFKLHYHGLQVRPHFDVHVWKHUHLV
DOVRHYLGHQFHWKDWHPSOR\HHVPD\EHEHFRPLQJPRUHSHULSDWHWLFLQVRPHVHUYLFHVHFWRUV
,QJHQHUDOVWXGLHVKDYHVKRZQWKDWWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOVDYLQJVIURP7 7
DUHOLNHO\WREHVPDOO$-DSDQHVHVWXG\HVWLPDWHGWKDW7 7ZRXOGSURGXFHVDYLQJVRI
DERXWPLOOLRQWRQQHVRIFDUERQD\HDURURIWKHUHGXFWLRQQHHGHGXQGHUWKH
FRXQWU\·VFRPPLWPHQWVXQGHUWKH.\RWRSURWRFRO037FLWHGLQ0DWWKHZV


IV.2 Critical issues

IV.2.1 The problem of ‘incomplete substitution’

:KLOH,&7DQG,QWHUQHWHQDEOHGVHUYLFHVPD\VXEVWLWXWHIRUVRPHWDQJLEOHJRRGVDQG
VHUYLFHVVXEVWLWXWLRQLVUDUHO\FRPSOHWH,QFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQPD\LQGHHGOHDGWRQHZ
GHPDQGDQGLQYHVWPHQWLQJRRGVDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGWKHUHIRUHUHVXOWLQPRUH
UHVRXUFHXVHDQGSROOXWLRQ

7KLVSKHQRPHQRQLVOLNHO\WRDULVHLQWKHDUHDRIORJLVWLFV,QFUHDVHGRQOLQHVKRSSLQJLV
FXUUHQWO\FUHDWLQJQHZWUDQVSRUWVWUXFWXUHV)RUH[DPSOHDQXPEHURIUHWDLOFKDLQVKDYH
VWDUWHGODUJHHFRPPHUFHRSHUDWLRQVUHTXLULQJQHZRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIH[LVWLQJFDOO
FHQWUHVZDUHKRXVHVSLFNDQGSDFNFHQWUHVGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHVDQGVRRQ7KLVQHZ
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWHOOLJHQWO\PDQDJHGWKURXJK,&7VKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWREHPRUHHIILFLHQW
WKDQWKHODUJHQXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOVKRSSLQJWULSVHVSHFLDOO\LIWKH\UHSODFHMRXUQH\VWR
RXWRIWRZQVKRSSLQJFHQWUHV+RZHYHUHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVZLOORQO\RFFXULIWKHVH
QHZLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVOHDGWRH[SHFWHGVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWV

7KLVQHHGQRWDOZD\VEHWKHFDVH6RPHFRQVXPHUVPLJKWFKRRVHWRGRDSDUWRIWKHLU
VKRSSLQJRQOLQHHJKHDY\RUORZYDOXHJRRGVEXWVWLOOGULYHLQWRWKHWRZQFHQWUHWR
EX\RWKHUJRRGV6LPLODUSKHQRPHQDFDQEHH[SHFWHGLQRWKHUDUHDV7KHVHXQVWDEOH
SDWWHUQVRIVXEVWLWXWLRQZLOOEHPRVWDSSDUHQWGXULQJWKHSHULRGRIWUDQVLWLRQDQG
RYHUODSEHWZHHQWUDGLWLRQDODQGDQ,&7EDVHGV\VWHP%XWDVLQWKHFDVHRIWKH
¶SDSHUOHVVRIILFH·DWUDQVLWLRQSHULRGFDQH[WHQGRYHUPDQ\\HDUVEHFDXVHFRQVXPHU
EHKDYLRXUGRHVQRWDOZD\VFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHH[SHFWDWLRQVRIWKRVHZKRSUHGLFWWKH
YLUWXDOLVDWLRQRIWKHHFRQRP\&ODLPVRIVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWVQHHGWREHFDUHIXOO\
HYDOXDWHG0DQ\UHPDLQVSHFXODWLYH


IV.2.2 Re-materialisation
,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVFDQLQVRPHLQVWDQFHVOHDGWRD¶UHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ·RI
HFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHV$OWKRXJKPDQ\GLJLWDOGHYLFHV3&VFHOOXODUSKRQHVKDYHEHHQ
VXEVWDQWLDOO\PLQLDWXULVHGDQG¶GHPDWHULDOLVHG·WKH\KDYHDOVRYDVWO\LQFUHDVHGWKH
FDSDFLW\RIWKHILQDOFRQVXPHUWRFRQVXPH%\LQWHQVLI\LQJFRPSHWLWLRQLQWHJUDWLQJ
PDUNHWVDQGGULYLQJGRZQSULFHVWKHVHGHYLFHVSURYLGHQHZRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRFRQVXPH
ERWKWDQJLEOHDQGLQWDQJLEOHJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV,QSDUWLFXODUWKH,QWHUQHWLQFUHDVHVWKH
¶UHDFK·RIFRQVXPHUVLQWHUPVRIFKRLFHDQGJHRJUDSKLFDOO\2QHFRQFUHWHH[DPSOHRI
UHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQLVGRFXPHQWDFFHVVWKURXJKWKHZHEDOORZLQJIRUDSULQWHGSDSHUFRS\
LQMXVWDIHZPRXVHFOLFNV

(FRPPHUFHFDQDOVRSURYLGHHDVLHUDFFHVVWRPDUNHWVIRUVXSSOLHUVLQUHPRWHORFDWLRQV
DQGWRJRRGVIRUGLVDGYDQWDJHGFRQVXPHUV$OWKRXJKWKLVSKHQRPHQRQPLJKWKDYH
VRFLDOO\EHQHILFLDOHIIHFWVWUDQVSRUWLPSOLFDWLRQVDUHSUREOHPDWLF7KHVHHIIHFWVDUHQRZ
LGHQWLILDEOHJOREDOO\)RUH[DPSOH,QGLDQIDUPHUVKDYHXVHGWKH,QWHUQHWWRFKHFNSULFHV
LQUHJLRQDOPDUNHWVZKLFKFDQEHPXFKKLJKHUWKDQWKRVHRIIHUHGE\ORFDOPHUFKDQWV
/OR\G7KH\DUHQRZE\SDVVLQJWKHVHDQGWUDQVSRUWLQJWKHLUSURGXFHGLUHFWO\WR
UHJLRQDOPDUNHW$OWKRXJKWKLVKDVPHDQWORQJHUKDXOVXSWRNPWKHSULFHVWKH\
FDQREWDLQDUHVRPHWLPHVKLJKHUWKDQORFDOO\

V. Third order effects of ICTs

,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHWDUHSURIRXQGO\DIIHFWLQJWKHVWUXFWXUHRIHFRQRPLHVERWKLQ
FKDQJLQJWKHUHODWLYHVL]HDQGLPSRUWDQFHRILQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVDQGVXEVHFWRUVEXWDOVR
RQWKHVL]HDQGGHPRJUDSK\ELUWKVXUYLYDOGHDWKRIILUPV$WILUVWVLJKWWKHVHFKDQJHV
VHHPOLNHO\WRKDYHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWVRQHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\HVSHFLDOO\WKURXJK
WKHJURZWKRI¶OLJKW·VHUYLFHVDWWKHH[SHQVHRI¶KHDY\·PDQXIDFWXULQJ%XWWKHQHWHIIHFW
RIWKHVHVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHUHODWLYHEDODQFHRI
WKHVH¶OLJKWHQLQJ·HIIHFWVDQGWKHFRXQWHULQIOXHQFHVRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKZKLFKVWLOO
OHDGVWRQHWJURZWKLQWKHGHPDQGIRUPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVDQGWKHSK\VLFDOLQYHVWPHQWV
WKDWDUHJHQHUDWHGWRHQDEOHDQGPRWLYDWHWKH,QWHUQHWHFRQRP\

V.1 Structural change and resource use

$WWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFOHYHOWKHQRWLRQRIGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQRU¶LQWHQVLW\RIXVH·
K\SRWKHVLVZDVILUVWGLVFXVVHGLQWKHVDQGSURGXFHGWKH¶(QYLURQPHQWDO.X]QHWV
&XUYH·(.&K\SRWKHVLV%URDGO\WKLVDUJXHVWKDWGXULQJWKHSURFHVVRI
LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQHFRQRPLHVXVHPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVVWHHOFHPHQWHQHUJ\FDUULHUVPRUH
LQWHQVLYHO\XQWLODWKUHVKROGLVUHDFKHGDIWHUZKLFKVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVLQWKHHFRQRP\
WKHGHFOLQHRIPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGWKHULVHRIVHUYLFHVOHDGVWRSURJUHVVLYHO\OHVV
LQWHQVLYHPDWHULDOVXVH

,&7VFRQWULEXWHVLJQLILFDQWO\WRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVWKDWUHGXFHWKHUHODWLYHUHVRXUFH
LQWHQVLW\RIWKHHFRQRP\7KLVRFFXUVWKURXJKWKHJURZWKRI,7UHODWHGVHUYLFHVHJ
VRIWZDUHGHYHORSPHQW,QWHUQHWVHUYLFHVQHZDGYHUWLVLQJDQGPDUNHWLQJVHUYLFHVHWF
DQGWKURXJKWKHJURZWKRIWUDGLWLRQDOVHUYLFHVHJILQDQFLDOVHUYLFHV6HUYLFHVHFWRUVDUH
VXSSRUWHGE\PDWHULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGWUDQVDFWLRQVWUDQVSRUWVHUYLFHVIRULQVWDQFH
DQGDUHQRWDV¶FOHDQ·DVVRPHWLPHVSUHVHQWHG+RZHYHUWKH\WHQGWRJHQHUDWHKLJKHU
YDOXHDGGHGZLWKORZHUHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFW


7KHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHUDSLGGLIIXVLRQRI,&7VVSHHGVXSWKLVRQJRLQJVWUXFWXUDO
FKDQJHDQGWKHUHIRUHFRQWULEXWHVWRLQFUHPHQWDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQUHODWLYHUHVRXUFH
HIILFLHQF\%XWHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHDOVRVKRZVWKDWLQDEVROXWHWHUPVWKHVHHFRQRPLHVDUH
VWLOO¶PDWHULDOLVLQJ·LHJHWWLQJKHDYLHU%HUNKRXW:5,$QRYHURSWLPLVWLF
DVVHVVPHQWZRXOGDOVREHLQDSSURSULDWHEHFDXVHVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHKDVIDLOHGWRDGGUHVVD
QXPEHURILPSRUWDQWHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPVVXFKDVELRGLYHUVLW\ORVVODQGXVHZDVWH
DQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHVHVHHPWREHFORVHO\UHODWHGWRWKHRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\
UDWKHUWKDQVSHFLILFVHFWRUDOGHYHORSPHQWV

,&7VDOVRFRQWULEXWHWRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHDWWKHJOREDOOHYHO7KH\DUHEHOLHYHGWREHDW
WKHKHDUWRIWKHHFRQRPLFSROLWLFDOVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDOSURFHVVHVWHUPHG¶JOREDOLVDWLRQ·
&ORVHGFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVFRQQHFWILQDQFLDODQGRWKHUJOREDOPDUNHWVDQGHQDEOH
WKHPDQDJHPHQWRIJOREDOVXSSO\FKDLQV7KHJURZWKLQWUDGHJHQHUDWHGE\WKH
H[WHQVLRQRIPDUNHWVKDVEHHQDIRFXVRIDFDGHPLFDQGSROLWLFDOGLVSXWHIRURYHUD
GHFDGH$GYRFDWHVRIOLEHUDOLVDWLRQRIPDUNHWVDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDGHDUJXHWKDWWKHVH
ZLOOUHVXOWLQIDVWHUHFRQRPLFJURZWKPRYLQJFRXQWULHVPRUHUDSLGO\WKURXJKWKH
WKUHVKROGRIPDWHULDOVLQWHQVLW\DQGSURYLGLQJWKHPZLWKDOHYHORIZHOIDUHWKDWHQDEOHV
WKHVHFRXQWULHVWRLPSRVHFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHJLPHVWRUHJXODWHWKHLUHQYLURQPHQW&ULWLFV
KDYHDUJXHGWKDWXQIHWWHUHGWUDGHPD\RQO\OHDGWRDVKLIWRI¶GLUW\LQGXVWULHV·WR
¶SROOXWLRQKDYHQV·LQZKLFKSURGXFHUVLQLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHVUHORFDWHSURGXFWLRQWR
OHVVGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVZLWKORZHUHQYLURQPHQWDOVWDQGDUGVDQGORZHUFRVWVVRDVWR
UHH[SRUWWRQRUWKHUQPRUHGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV·PDUNHWV+HUHDJDLQHYLGHQFHLV
LQFRQFOXVLYHZLWKDYDULHW\RIVWXGLHVILQGLQJVXSSRUWIRUERWKSRVLWLRQV*RVVDUW

V.2 The rebound effect

7KHWHUP¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·LVXVHGWRGHVFULEHDQXPEHURIRIWHQFRXQWHULQWXLWLYH
IHHGEDFNHIIHFWVWKDWFRPSHQVDWHRURYHUFRPSHQVDWHLQFUHDVHVLQHQYLURQPHQWDO
HIILFLHQF\7KHVHHIIHFWVKDYHEHHQREVHUYHGIRUH[DPSOHLQWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUZKHUH
VXFFHVVIXOPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHWUDIILFOHGWRIUHHUURDGVZKLFKLQWXUQVWLPXODWHGQHZ
WUDIILFDQGDJURZWKLQFRQJHVWLRQ7KHUHERXQGHIIHFWFDQEHFDXVHGE\WZRPDLQ
HIIHFWVIDOOLQJSULFHVDQGLQFUHDVHGFDSDFLW\

$VDOOWKHGHVFULEHGPHFKDQLVPVDQGPRUHFRPSHWLWLYHRSHQJOREDOPDUNHWVFRQWULEXWH

WRDPRUHHIILFLHQWXVHRIQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVWKHSULFHVRIUDZPDWHULDOVDQGRWKHU
SURGXFWLRQLQSXWVHOHFWULFLW\JDVPHWDOVHWFZLOOWHQGWRIDOO&RVWSUHVVXUHVRQHRIWKH
PDLQGULYHUVRIHFRHIILFLHQF\LPSURYHPHQWVUHGXFHDQGWKHLQFUHDVHLQUHVRXUFH
HIILFLHQF\FRXOGVORZGRZQ7KHSURGXFHUVRIPDWHULDOVIRUZKLFKGHPDQGIDOOVVXIIHU
HFRQRPLFORVVHVDQGWKH\ZLOOXQGHUWDNHHIIRUWVWRILQGQHZPDUNHWRSSRUWXQLWLHV
%HFDXVHPDQ\PDWHULDOVKDYHDSRWHQWLDOIRUVXEVWLWXWLRQZLQGRZVFDQEHPDGHIURP
ZRRGSODVWLFDQGDOXPLQLXPIRUH[DPSOHQHZPDUNHWVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOO\GDPDJLQJ
PDWHULDOVFDQEHDFFHVVHG

7KHVHFRQGPHFKDQLVPLVWKHJHQHUDWLRQRIQHZFDSDFLW\0DQ\,&7DSSOLFDWLRQVDOORZD
EHWWHUPDQDJHPHQWRIWLPHPRQH\ODERXUWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGVRRQ7KLV
OHDGVWRQHZFDSDFLW\WKDWZLOOLQHYLWDEO\EHILOOHG7KHNH\TXHVWLRQLVZKHWKHUWKHWLPH
DQGPRQH\JDLQHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRI,&7VLVVSHQWLQPRUHRUOHVVHQYLURQPHQWDOO\
GDPDJLQJZD\V)RUH[DPSOHVRPH86WHOHZRUNLQJVWXGLHVIRXQGWKDWLQLWLDOUHGXFWLRQV
LQFDUWUDYHODUHSDUWLDOO\RIIVHWRYHUWLPHE\VWLPXODWLRQRIQHZGULYLQJ+RSNLQVRQ
-DPHVDQG6HOZ\Q7KLVLQFOXGHVOLYLQJIXUWKHUDZD\IURPWKHZRUNSODFHZKLFKQR
ORQJHUKDVWREHDWWHQGHGILYHGD\VDZHHNRUPDNLQJVKRUWWULSVIURPKRPHWRVKRSVRU


RWKHUORFDWLRQVGXULQJPRUHIUDJPHQWHGZRUNGD\V6LPLODUO\WKHSUHVHQFHRIRQOLQH
ERRNVHOOHUVXFKDV$PD]RQDQG%RRNVRQ/LQHVHHPVWRKDYHH[SDQGHGWKHRYHUDOO
PDUNHWIRUERRNV3URYLGLQJHDV\DFFHVVWRDODUJHUQXPEHURISURGXFWVDWORZHUSULFHV
WKH\KDYHLQFUHDVHGERRNVDOHV

V.3 Life style changes

)LQDOO\QHZLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDUHOLNHO\WRKDYHZLGHULPSDFWRQVRFLDOYDOXHV
OLIHVW\OHVDQGFXOWXUH$OWKRXJKWKHVHFKDQJHVDQGWKHLULPSDFWRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW
UHPDLQKLJKO\VSHFXODWLYHLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWDOLYHO\GHEDWHLVFXUUHQWO\GHYHORSLQJ

2QHRIWKHZLGHO\GLVFXVVHGWUHQGVLVWKHSRVVLEOHHPHUJHQFHRIDQHZJUHHQ
FRQVXPHULVPEDVHGRQWKHQHZSRVVLELOLWLHVRILQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV5LFKHUVRFLHWLHV
DUHJHQHUDOO\H[SHFWHGWRVKLIWWRZDUGVSRVWPDWHULDOLVWYDOXHV,&7V\VWHPVFRXOGDOORZ
FRQVXPHUVDQGFLYLOVRFLHW\WRWUDQVODWHWKHVHYDOXHVLQWRSXUFKDVLQJDQGRWKHUGHFLVLRQV
)RUH[DPSOHQHZRQOLQHLQIRUPDWLRQVHUYLFHVFRXOGSURYLGHFRQVXPHUVZLWKPRUH
LQIRUPDWLRQDEXWWKH¶HWKLFDO·SHUIRUPDQFHRIFRPSHWLQJSURGXFWVDQGRIIHUWKHPWKH
FKDQFHWRWDNHRQPRUHUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUOHVVHQYLURQPHQWDOO\EXUGHQVRPHOLIHVW\OHVDQG
KDELWV(QDEOHGWRPDNHLQIRUPHGFKRLFHVDERXWSURGXFWVRQWKHEDVLVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO
FULWHULDFRQVXPHUVFRXOGVWLPXODWHPRUHHQYLURQPHQWDOO\UHVSRQVLEOHSURGXFWLRQDQG
LQQRYDWLRQ

2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHIDFWWKDW,&7QHWZRUNVGHFUHDVHWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIJHRJUDSKLFDO
GLVWDQFHFRXOGDOVROHDGWRDUHPRELOLVDWLRQQRWRQO\RIJRRGVEXWDOVRRIODERXUDQG
OHLVXUH7KHJUHDWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\EHWZHHQSHRSOHSURYLGHGE\HPDLODQGWKH,QWHUQHWZLOO
DOPRVWFHUWDLQO\VWLPXODWHWKHGHVLUHWRPHHWGLUHFWO\WRVKDUHPDWHULDOJRRGVDQGWR
H[SHULHQFHWKHVSHFLILFLW\RISODFHV7UDQVSRUWDQGWUDYHODUHDOPRVWDOZD\VOLQNHGWR
QHJDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV

VI. Conclusions
 ,&7VDUHKDYLQJPDMRUHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVDQGIURPWKHVHIORZDZLGHUDQJHRI
ERWKSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHLPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW,QJHQHUDOVHFRQGRUGHU
HIIHFWVRQWKHGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQRISURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVKDVDSRVLWLYH
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFW+RZHYHUWKHUHLVJUHDWXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHWKLUGRUGHU
HIIHFWVRQFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXUDJJUHJDWHGHPDQGDQGWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRI
HFRQRPLFJURZWKZKHWKHUJURZWKLVVXEVWDQWLDOO\GHPDWHULDOLVHGRUQRW,W
VHHPVKLJKO\OLNHO\WKRXJKFXUUHQWO\LPSRVVLEOHWRFRQILUPWKDWWKHUHZLOOEHD
PLVPDWFKEHWZHHQRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUJUHDWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOHIILFLHQF\DWWKH
PLFUROHYHODQGUHVRXUFHXVHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVLQWKHDJJUHJDWH0DQ\
RIWKHVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWVSRVLWHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHDUHHLWKHURIOLPLWHG
HQYLURQPHQWDOVLJQLILFDQFHRQO\SDUWLDORUPD\VWLPXODWHQHZIRUPVRI
FRQVXPSWLRQZKLFKJHQHUDWHQHZHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQV7KHUHLVHYHQWKH
SRVVLELOLW\RIZKDWPLJKWEHWHUPHGDSURFHVVRI¶UHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ·RIWKH1HZ
(FRQRP\DVSULFHVIRUUDZPDWHULDOVIDOODQGFRQVXPHUVEHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\
GLVWDQFHGIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHLUFRQVXPSWLRQ
 0RVWRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHOLQNEHWZHHQ,&7VDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWLVKLJKO\
SRVLWLYLVWLFLGHQWLI\LQJRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGEXLOGLQJIURPFDVHVWXG\HYLGHQFH
7KHUHLVQRZWKHHPHUJHQFHRIDPRUHV\VWHPDWLFDQDO\VLVRIWKHIXOOFRPSOH[LW\
RIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEXWWKHHYLGHQFHEDVHIURPZKLFKWRGUDZFRQFOXVLRQVLVVWLOO
WKLQ$QRWKHUSUREOHPLVWKDWPRVWVWXGLHVDUH¶IXWXUHRULHQWHG·VSHFXODWLQJ


 DERXWWKHLPSDFWVRIWHFKQRORJLFDODQGPDUNHWFKDQJHVWKDWKDYHQRW\HW
RFFXUUHGDQGWKDWDUHVWLOOKLJKO\XQFHUWDLQ
 0HWKRGVRILPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWLQFOXGHTXDOLWDWLYHDFFRXQWVKLJKO\VLPSOLILHG
FRQFHSWXDOPRGHOOLQJRISRVVLEOHEHQHILWVLI;LVVXEVWLWXWHGZLWK<WKLVZLOOOHDG
WR=VDYLQJV,QJHQHUDOWKH\DUHXQDEOHWRKDQGOHIHHGEDFNHIIHFWVGXHWR
UHVSRQVHVLQPDUNHWGHPDQGDQGFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXU
 7KHUHLVDQHHGIRUPXFKEHWWHUPRQLWRULQJDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHOLQNVEHWZHHQ
,&7GULYHQSURGXFWLYLW\JDLQVODERXUFDSLWDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDODQGWKHDFWXDO
HQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHRILQGXVWULDOLVHGHFRQRPLHV7KH2(&'FRXOGSOD\
DPDMRUUROHLQJHQHUDWLQJDIUDPHZRUNIRUPRQLWRULQJDQGDQDO\VLQJWKHVH
FKDQJHVSURYLGLQJPXFKQHHGHGHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHDQGSURYLGLQJDQ
LQWHUQDWLRQDOSHUVSHFWLYH,WVHHPVOLNHO\WKDWPDQ\RIWKHLPSDFWVRI,&7VZLOO
EHQDWLRQDOO\UHJLRQDOO\DQGORFDWLRQVSHFLILF7KLVGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQPXVWDOVREH
FRQVLGHUHGLQGHYHORSLQJSROLF\UHVSRQVHV


VII. References
$WODQWLF&RQVXOWLQJ/&$VWXG\RIWKHSURGXFWJURXSSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUVLQWKH
(8(FRODEHOVFKHPH/RQGRQ0DUFK

%HUNKRXW)$JJUHJDWHUHVRXUFHHIILFLHQF\$UHUDGLFDOLPSURYHPHQWVSRVVLEOH"

,Q9HOOLQJD%HUNKRXWDQG*XSWDHGV0DQDJLQJD0DWHULDO:RUOG.OXZHU'RUGUHFKW

%HUNKRXW)HWDO6XVWDLQDELOLW\&RPSHWLWLYHQHVVDQG7HFKQLFDO&KDQJH

6&27&+)LQDO5HSRUWWRWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ6358%ULJKWRQ-DQXDU\

%HUNKRXW),QIRUPDWLRQDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV)XWXUHV'UDIW5HSRUW

6358%ULJKWRQ

&DLUQV6+RPH'HOLYHU\RI(OHFWURQLF6KRSSLQJ7KHHQYLURQPHQWDO

FRQVHTXHQFHV(65&7UDQVSRUW6WXGLHV8QLW8QLYHUVLW\&ROOHJH/RQGRQ

&R\OH'7KH:HLJKWOHVV:RUOG6WUDWHJLHVIRU0DQDJLQJWKH'LJLWDO(FRQRP\

0,73UHVV%RVWRQ

&RKHQ1*UHHQLQJWKH,QWHUQHW7HQ:D\V(&RPPHUFH&RXOG$IIHFWWKH

(QYLURQPHQWDQG:KDW:H&DQ'RL03DWZZZFLVSRUJLPSRFWREHU

YDQ'UXQHQ0DQG$$2OVWKRRUQ(QYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIWKHFRPSXWHU

LQGXVWU\,9098:RUNLQJSDSHU:$PVWHUGDP

(DPHV0-+HUWLQ)%HUNKRXW5+DZNLQV(WRSLD"6FHQDULRVIRUD'LJLWDO

)XWXUH)LQDO5HSRUW%ULJKWRQ'HFHPEHU

(FRQRPLVW:KDWWKH,QWHUQHW&DQQRW'R$XJXVWZZZHFRQRPLVWFRP

(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\(3$3URILOHRIWKHHOHFWURQLFVDQGFRPSXWHU

LQGXVWU\2IILFHRI&RPSOLDQFH

(VW\'&,QIRUPDWLRQ$JH(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ2(&'2EVHUYHU0D\

*RVVDUW&5HYLHZRIWUDGHHQYLURQPHQWOLWHUDWXUH6358%ULJKWRQ

+LOW\/0DQG7)5XGG\7RZDUGVDVXVWDLQDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQVRFLHW\

,QIRUPDWLN,QIRUPDWLTXH

+RSNLQVRQ33-DPHVDQG-6HOZ\Q7KH(QYLURQPHQWDODQG6RFLDO,PSDFWRI

7HOHZRUNLQJSDSHUSUHVHQWHGWRWKHWK(XURSHDQ&RQIHUHQFHRQ7HOHZRUNDQG1HZ
:D\VRI:RUNLQJ$DUKXV'HQPDUN

+RSNLQVRQ3DQG3-DPHV9LUWXDOWUDIILF²ZLOOHFRPPHUFHPHDQOHVVWUDQVSRUW

DQGPRUHVXVWDLQDEOHORJLVWLFV"5HSRUWIRU¶'LJLWDO)XWXUHV·SURMHFW8QLYHUVLW\RI
%UDGIRUGDQG8.&(('1RYHPEHU

,($:RUNVKRSRQ6WDQGE\/RVVHVZZZLHDRUJVWDQGE\


,QIRUPDWLRQ6RFLHW\7HFKQRORJLHV,67&DVH6WXGLHVRIWKH,QIRUPDWLRQ6RFLHW\
DQG6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW%UXVVHOV

.HOO\+,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\DQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW&KRLFHVDQG

2SSRUWXQLWLHVL03DWZZZFLVSRUJLPSRFWREHU

/HDGEHDWHU&0LQGRYHUPDWWHUJUHHQLQJWKHQHZHFRQRP\*UHHQ$OOLDQFH

/RQGRQ

/RER,DQG0=DLUL&RPSHWLWLYHEHQFKPDUNLQJLQWKHDLUFDUJRLQGXVWU\

%HQFKPDUNLQJ

0DUNHU7-DQG.*RXOLDV$5HYLHZDQG)UDPHZRUNIRUWKH$QDO\VLVRI

+RXVHKROG5HSOHQLVKPHQWDQGLWV,PSDFWRQ7UDYHO%HKDYLRXUDQG*RRGV0RYHPHQW
3HQQV\OYDQLD7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ,QVWLWXWH8QLYHUVLW\3DUN3HQQV\OYDQLD

0DWWKHZV6+&7+HQGULFNVRQ//DYH+RZPXFKGLG+DUU\

3RWWHUFRVW"2(&'2EVHUYHU3DULV)HEUXDU\

0DWWKHZV+67KH(QYLURQPHQWDO,PSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH*URZWKRIWKH

,QIRUPDWLRQDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQV7HFKQRORJ\6HFWRUSDSHUIRU(QYLURQPHQW
'LUHFWRUDWH2(&'3DULV0DUFK

0LQLVWU\RI3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV0377RZDUGVXVWDLQDEOHJOREDO

HQYLURQPHQWE\PHDQVRILQIRUPDWLRQDQGWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQSDSHUWR0LQLVWHURI
3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV0D\

1HJURSRQWH1%HLQJ'LJLWDO9LQWDJH%RRNV1HZ<RUN

1(5$0RWRUVDQGPRGHPV1DWLRQDO(FRQRPLF5HVHDUFK$VVRFLDWHV/RQGRQ

2(&'D,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\2XWORRN3DULV

2(&'E(FRPPHUFHLPSDFWVDQGSROLF\FKDOOHQJHV(FRQRPLFVGHSDUWPHQW

ZRUNLQJSDSHUVQR

5RPP-7KH,QWHUQHW(FRQRP\DQG*OREDO:DUPLQJ&HQWHUIRU(QHUJ\DQG

&OLPDWH6ROXWLRQV:DVKLQJWRQ

7UDQVSRUWHQ/RJHVWLHN1HGHUODQG7/11LHXZHZLMQLQRXGH]DNNHQ7/15HVHDUFK

-XQHZZZWOQQO

6FKUH\HU37KHFRQWULEXWLRQRILQIRUPDWLRQDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\WR

RXWSXWJURZWKDVWXG\RIWKH* FRXQWULHV67,:RUNLQJ3DSHU2(&'3DULV

YRQ:HL]VlFNHU(8$%/RYLQV/+/RYLQV)DFWRU)RXU'RXEOLQJ:HDOWK²

+DOYLQJ5HVRXUFH8VH(DUWKVFDQ/RQGRQ

:(5&:DUHKRXVH,QYHQWRU\7XUQRYHU:DUHKRXVLQJ(GXFDWLRQ5HVHDUFK

&HQWHU0LDPL8QLYHUVLW\2KLR


:LOVGRQ-HG'LJLWDO)XWXUHVOLYLQJLQDGRWFRPZRUOG(DUWKVFDQ/RQGRQ