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12:00 AM, February 19, 2019 / LAST MODIFIED: 12:00 AM, February 19, 2019

The dark side of Dhaka's urbanisation

If the current rate of population growth continues, Dhaka will exceed Beijing in size by 2025, with a projected
population of 22.9 million. Photo: Star

Dhrubo Alam

Just over a decade ago, in 2008, almost half of the world's total population used to live in
urban areas. This phenomenon has continued and is expected to gain further momentum
in future. According to United Nations (UN), it is projected that the world urban
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population will increase by 72 percent by 2050, from 3.6 billion in 2011 to 6.3 billion in
2050 of which the majority of the population will be concentrated in the urban areas of
the less developed regions.

Cities such as London or New York in developed countries have had very slow growth
between 1970 and 2011, compared with cities in the developing world. India, for example,
already has three megacities (Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata) and with the addition of
Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad, India is expected to have six by 2020. The country
will have the largest concentration of megacities in the world. This gives one an idea of
the pressure of population growth in cities of developing countries.

WHAT IS A 'MEGACITY'?

The concept of megacity evolved at the end of the twentieth century to describe the large
urban agglomerations of the world. Few inconsistencies exist in literature regarding the
population threshold used to define a megacity. For example, Mitchell defines a megacity
as having a population exceeding one million, whilst others have used a five million or an
eight million population threshold. Most concrete definition is given by the UN (2003): a
megacity is a conurbation that houses ten million people or more; which is widely
accepted nowadays.

THE GLOBAL PHENOMENON OF URBANISATION

In the 1970s, there were only two megacities with a population of more than ten million.
At present, 9.9 percent of the world urban population lives in 23 megacities. The number
is projected to increase to 37 in 2025 when they are expected to accommodate 13.6
percent of the world urban population. The number of people living in megacities has
increased almost tenfold in the past 40 years, from 39.5 million in 1970 to 359.4 million in
2011, and could double again by 2025 (UN 2012). Interestingly, the largest increase in
urban population between now and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in Asia and
Africa.

WHERE DOES DHAKA LIE?

Even though Bangladesh has achieved an amazing feat in reducing the annual growth
rate of population, the size of population is still large when compared with the size of the
country. If the current trend continues, the population of Bangladesh is expected to reach
about 194 million in 2050 (UN 2012). Understandably, this population exerts tremendous
pressure on a limited resource base. As a result, both landlessness and environmental
degradation have become rampant in recent times. For instance, the total proportion of
land holdings being farmed has been reduced from 72.7 percent in 1983 to about 58.6
percent in 2008. Furthermore, because of rapid growth of urbanisation and associated

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infrastructure, every year Bangladesh loses 0.3 percent of its cultivated land. We have to
keep in mind that the economy of Bangladesh is still mostly agrarian with 48 percent of
the labour force engaged in agriculture and related activities (BBS 2010).

Along with national population growth, the percentage of people living in urban areas
has also been rising. 1.8 million people were living in urban areas in 1951 which
increased to 13.5 million, 22.5 million, 31 million and 33.5 million in 1981, 1991, 2001 and
2011 respectively; an eighteen-fold increase in the last 60 years. This astonishing growth
in urban population is largely attributed to three main factors, namely: (i) rural-urban
migration, (ii) natural growth and (iii) the redefinition of urban areas. It is affirmed by
experts that among them, rural-urban migration is the most dominant factor. Moreover,
the country faces enormous challenges in coping with the infrastructures and service
requirements for its rapidly growing urban population, particularly in the capital city
Dhaka.

Dhaka has seen astonishing growth and rapid development since 1971. It has changed
into the capital of a nation from a mere provincial city since the birth of Bangladesh. It is
one of the only seven cities in the world which has experienced urban population growth
higher than 2.4 percent between 1975 and 2005 (UN 2006). It was one of the top ten
megacities in the world in 2011. Unfortunately, the development took place in an
unplanned way, especially since the 1990s. These days the name Dhaka regularly comes
up in the list of the most unliveable cities.

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Buses and minibuses (diesel-operated) and motor cars have a signi cant contribution of nitrogen oxides to the air. Air
quality in Dhaka has reached a terrible condition and there have been no visible steps to improve the situation. Photo:
Amran Hossain

A CITY BURDENED WITH TOO MANY PEOPLE

The capital city Dhaka has extensive administrative and infrastructure facilities, as well
as extensive road and telecommunication networks, which are definitely better than any
other cities of the country. Hence, it has become the focus of urban expansion and the hub
of all economic activities. For obvious reasons, marginalised rural people are attracted to
the area and come here in the hope of better employment opportunities and an improved
lifestyle. As a result, it has become one of the fastest growing cities in the world, primarily
driven by staggering population growth. The population of the city was a mere 0.41
million and 0.71 million in 1951 and 1961 respectively. By 1974, it had risen to 2.06
million, with an average annual growth rate of 11.15 percent (BBS 2008). In 1981, the
population increased to 3.44 million and reached around 6.48 million and 9.67 million by
1991 and 2001 respectively (BBS 2001, 2003).

Currently, the megacity's population is more than 14 million, with an average annual
growth rate of 4.08 percent between 1991 and 2001, outpacing the country's annual
growth rate of 1.3 percent with a distant margin. If the current rate of population growth
continues, Dhaka will exceed Beijing in size by 2025, with a projected population of 22.9
million (UN 2012).

As stated before, research studies indicate that the rapid growth of the urban population
is mainly driven by rural-urban migration. Islam (1991) reported that more than 60
percent of people in Dhaka are migrants. A study in the recent past shows that Dhaka
receives 300,000–400,000 migrants every year (Sanderson 2012). Studies have also shown
that rural-urban migration is age-selective; more and more youth are pouring into the city
from all parts of the country.

A TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN DIRE STRAITS

Dhaka suffers from traffic congestion, which is deteriorating, despite its low level of
motorisation. This horrible situation prevails largely due to absolute lack of roads,
deficient road network configuration and inefficient traffic management. The existing
public transport system, bus transit operations in particular, is characterised as far short
of the desirable mobility needs of the people in terms of reliability, comfort, speed and
safety. In Dhaka, buses are generally considered unreliable and time-consuming to reach
one's destination. It is one of the very few megacities in the world without a proper public
transport system.

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The present public transport system in Dhaka city consists of only conventional bus
services (buses and minibuses) and para-transits (e.g. rickshaws, auto-rickshaws, taxis,
battery bikes, etc.). Lack of effective public transport system and preference of door-to-
door services influence the augmentation of private cars and other forms of transport.
The railway was very popular and still is a relatively safer and cheaper transport system
in Bangladesh; as a consequence of the absence of proper initiatives and investment in
the urban corridors, it could not play the expected role in Dhaka's public transport
system. Moreover, rail tracks run through the Central Business Districts (CBDs) and
congested areas of the city with numerous level crossings which result in enormous
congestion.

All these factors have created a situation where cars and motorcycles are increasingly
becoming a necessity for the middle class to get around in Dhaka. As a result, there is
further congestion in roads and worsening air and noise pollution and safety issues.

The number of registered motorised vehicles stands at 1,255,402 as of April 2018, an

increase from 303,215 in 2003 (a fourfold increase in 15 years). More than 36 percent of
all registered vehicles are in Dhaka (a total of 3,419,884 in Bangladesh) (BRTA 2012, 2018).

During this period the percentage of buses and minibuses has remained almost the same;
private vehicles, particularly the number of cars and motorcycles, have almost tripled.
Public transport such as buses and minibuses has grown at a very insignificant rate even
though the demand for public transport services is increasing. Motorcycles and cars
constitute around 54 percent and 26 percent of total motorised vehicles respectively.

To improve the current situation and reorganise the existing traffic system methodically,
the government prepared the Strategic Transport Plan (STP) for Dhaka (2005) which has
been recently revised (it has now become Revised Strategic Transport Plan, RSTP since
2015). It recommended a package of comprehensive programmes for the development of
transport infrastructure over a 20-year period. This strategy includes various types of
development agendas, such as three Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Mass Rapid Transit
(MRT) (Metrorail) routes, more than 50 highway projects, expressways, flyovers, etc.

But unfortunately, the implementation of the components of STP or RSTP does not reflect
the intention to mitigate transport problems of the masses. Ignoring the needs of non-
motorised travellers and pedestrians, recent policies at all levels of the decision-making
processes have focused mostly on trying to lessen the travel time for the motorised elite of
the city by putting preference on the construction of numerous grade-separated flyovers,
overpasses and interchanges (e.g. Jatrabari-Gulistan flyover, Kuril interchange, Banani
overpass, expressways, etc).

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The rapid motorisation and heavy infrastructural development which promote cars come
with the depletion of transportation equity in a city. For example, from an environmental
and equity perspective, major concerns exist regarding the unwanted increase of
motorised two-wheelers. Some have even characterised the motorcycle as likely the “most
challenging” transport problem that Asia will face in the next decade. The rise of private
transport and current prevalence of NMT (Non Motorised Traffic, mostly rickshaws) are
not a sustainable solution although they may help to increase mobility in the short term.
Already authorities tried to and have been successful in banning NMT from some parts of
the city. So, like other developing cities around the world, NMT will be restricted in near
future for Dhaka too. Hence, for transportation equity and accessibility, not only is public
transit necessary but so is MRT (e.g. subway, BRT, LRT etc) and we hope that the ongoing
projects of MRT and BRT will help ease the present horrendous situation.

CHOKED TO DEATH BY AIR POLLUTION

Dhaka has been historically infamous for being heavily polluted. It was termed as the
most polluted city when the presence of lead (Pb) in the air was reported to be higher
than in the atmosphere of any other place in the world back in 1997. Pollution from
traffic and brick kilns has been identified as two of the most significant factors by studies.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, in order to improve the severe situation, the authorities
took some important decisions (e.g. banning two-stroke engines, introducing Compressed
Natural Gas (CNG), etc). But other than numerous sporadic studies and projects, there has
been little systematic research or successful project implementation on air pollution in
the city. Unless the situation becomes extremely hazardous or almost uninhabitable, what
the authorities usually do is adopt the “do nothing” approach.

The main culprits for air pollution are large numbers of high-polluting vehicles, impure
fuel, inefficient land use, overall poor traffic management, and industries (especially
brick kilns). The most important pollutants have been identified as carbon monoxide,
sulfur dioxide, lead, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, suspended particulate matter
and last but not least, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or
equal to 10µm (PM10 and PM2.5). Observations show that the concentration of sulfur
dioxide, ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides goes up in the dry season
significantly. The same is true for PM2.5 and PM10.

The estimated PM emissions from different modes indicate that around 54 percent
emission contribution is from buses/minibuses, followed by trucks and tankers (26
percent). The black spot areas for PM were located in the intercity routes and the major
bus terminals. The bus terminals (Gabtoli and Sayedabad) showed average estimated
values above 110 μg/m3 of PM. Locations with highest concentrations of PM are Sheraton,
Farmgate, Sonargaon, Mohakhali-Gulshan intersection and Banglamotor.

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When a team of researchers performed field studies in the 90s, to measure ambient NO2
concentration in 51 street locations, one residential area and four personal exposures, 35
of them were identified as black spots. Most polluted locations of nitrogen oxides were
Sayedabad bus stand, Sheraton hotel roundabout, Sonargaon hotel roundabout, Farmgate
intersection and Moghbazar intersection. The calculation of nitrogen oxides indicated
that buses and minibuses (diesel operated) and motor cars have a significant contribution
of nitrogen oxides (30 percent), followed by heavy-duty vehicles (trucks and tankers) (28
percent). The situation has gotten much worse now after 20 years, as there have been no
visible steps to improve the situation.

Researchers found that nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide emissions from transportation
systems in national pollution averaged 34 percent and 47 percent, respectively. In case of
sulfur dioxide in Dhaka, the contribution mainly comes from high sulfur content in the
diesel fuel. It was estimated that buses powered by diesel fuel contribute 58 percent
sulfur dioxide emission followed by trucks and tankers at 34 percent.

At present, air pollution in metropolitan Dhaka has been increasing at a steady rate for
more than three decades. Annual average increases of 6.5 percent in nitrogen oxides, 5.8
percent in hydrocarbons, 5.9 percent in carbon monoxide, 5.6% in PM and 6 percent in
sulfur oxide emissions were observed from 1981 to 1996. These rates have certainly not
gone down, as the number of motorised vehicles is rapidly increasing, which results in
chronic congestion almost at every intersection, resulting in more and more emissions.

It is proven that the impact of policy decisions (e.g. banning of two-stroke engines and
leaded gasoline, introduction of CNG, etc.) can have far-reaching effects in a positive way.
The ever-increasing amount of PM2.5 and PM10 is getting out of hand, and making the
city one of the most polluted in the world. If we do not take proper effective measures to
mitigate the problem now, we will face grave consequences.

Dhaka is probably one of the very few megacities in the world without any properly
planned design or guideline for expansion of the mass transit system. There are few
others like us such as Lagos, Karachi and Kinshasa, but none of them has a population
density of about 50,000 people per square kilometre. According to some projections,
approximately 24 million and 35 million people will reside in Dhaka by 2030 and 2050
respectively. So, if Dhaka is to survive the juggernaut called “development” and
“urbanisation”, it must have a proper plan not only to provide guidelines on paper but
also for implementation in reality—and there is little scope for mistakes.

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Dhrubo Alam is Technical Consultant (Transport), Dhaka Metro Preparatory Technical

Assistance Project, Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority. Email: dhrubo101@yahoo.com

Significant portions of the article were inspired by the book Dhaka Megacity: Geospatial Perspectives on
Urbanisation, Environment and Health by Robert J Corner and Ashraf M Dewan. The author would like to express
his gratitude to and is indebted to Professor Dr Mazharul Hoque (Professor, BUET, retired) for his expert
comments and opinions.

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