HR0J 35 Applied Marine Meteorology: Lesson 9

9. El Nino and La Nina and the

Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
9.1 Introduction
El Niño and La Niña are terms for climatic events originating in the tropical Pacific
that recur every few years as part of a naturally-occurring cycle.

Such events are a consequence of strong and extensive interactions between the
ocean and atmosphere. They are associated with widespread changes in the climate
system that last several months, and can lead to significant socio-economic impacts
affecting infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy sectors for example.

The term El Niño (the Christ child) comes from the name sailors called a periodic
ocean current because it was observed to appear usually immediately after
Christmas. It marked a time of poor fishing conditions as the nutrient rich waters
off the northwest coast of South America remained very deep. However, over the
land this ocean current brought heavy rains in very dry regions which produced
luxurious vegetation.

9.2 The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Niño is part of a large global variation in the atmosphere referred to as ENSO. The
Southern Oscillation refers to changes in sea level air pressure patterns in the South
Pacific Ocean between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.

During El Niño conditions, the average air pressure is higher in Darwin than in Tahiti.
Therefore, the change in air pressures in the South Pacific and water temperature
in the East Pacific Ocean, some 8000 miles away, are related.

When the water is warmer than normal in the East Pacific it is an El Niño event;
when the water is cooler than normal it is an El Niña event.

ENSO is monitored by the Southern Ocean Index (SOI), based on pressure differences
between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is a mathematical way of smoothing the daily
fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin and standardising the
information.

Sea surface temperatures are monitored in four regions along the equator.

• Niño 1 (80°-90°W and 5°-10°S)

• Niño 2 (80°-90°W and 0°-5°S)
• Niño 3 (90°-150°W and 5°N-5°S)
• Niño 4 (150°-160°E and 5°N-5°S)

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Fig. 9.1 – Location of El Nino monitoring zones. Nino 3.4 is the new region which has been modified from the original
3 and 4 areas. Regions 1 and 2 are now combined.

The two graphs show this correlation. The top graph shows the change in water
temperature from normal for Niño 3.4. The bottom graph shows the southern
oscillation index for the same period.

Fig. 9.2 – Change in water temperature observed at stations Niño 3.4 (top) and the Southern Ocean Index (SOI) (bottom)
showing the deviation from normal temperatures for the same period.
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_patterns

When the pressure in Tahiti is lower than Darwin the temperature in Niño 3.4 is
higher than normal and El Nino is occurring; the warm episode of ENSO.

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Conversely, when the pressure in Tahiti is higher than Darwin the temperature in
Niño 3.4 is lower than normal and La Nina is occurring; the cool episode of ENSO.

The changes in sea surface temperatures are not large, only ±3°C and usually much
less. Yet these minor changes in temperature have immense effects on global
weather patterns.

9.3 The effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the

Pacific
9.3.1 Normal conditions
Normally, the sea surface temperature is about 8°C higher in the Western pacific
than the waters off South America.

This is caused by the trade winds blowing from east to west at the equator allowing
the upwelling of cold, nutrient rich water from deeper ocean levels off the
northwest coast of South America. The trade winds cause the water to be higher in
the Western Pacific. This creates a deep warm layer (150 metres) in the west that
pushes the thermocline down, whilst it rises in the east.

Thermocline: A thermocline is the transition layer between warmer mixed water

at the ocean's surface and cooler deep water below.

The shallow 30 metre eastern thermocline allows the winds to cause cold water to
rise to the surface from below; this upwelling brings rich nutrients to the surface.

Fig. 9.3 – The normal tropical weather pattern across the equator.
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_patterns

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9.3.2 El Niño conditions

When the air pressure patterns reverse in the South Pacific (the air pressure being
higher at Darwin than at Tahiti), the trade winds decrease in strength and may even
reverse direction.

This results in the normal flow of water away from South America decreasing and
water piles up off South America. This pushes the thermocline deeper and decreases
the upwelling.

With a deeper thermocline and decreased westward transport of water, the sea
surface temperature increases to greater than normal in the Eastern Pacific. This is
the warm phase of ENSO, called El Niño.

Fig. 9.5 – The tropical weather pattern across the equator during El Nino (warm phase of ENSO).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_patterns

The effect of this is a shift of the prevailing rainfall pattern from the normal Western
Pacific to the Central Pacific. Rainfall becomes more common in the central Pacific
while the Western Pacific becomes relatively dry.

9.3.3 La Nina conditions

Occasionally the trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Pacific are
stronger than normal.

This leads to increased upwelling off South America and hence the lower than
normal sea surface temperatures. The prevailing rainfall pattern also shifts farther
west than normal. These winds pile up warm surface water in the Western Pacific.

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This is the cool phase of ENSO called La Nina.

Fig. 9.6 – The tropical weather pattern across the equator during La Nina (cool phase of ENSO).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_patterns

9.4 Weather impacts of ENSO

This cyclical oscillation impacts the jet stream and the occurrence and strengths of
tropical revolving storms.

9.4.1 The jet stream

As the position of the warm surface water along the equator shifts east and west so
does the position of greatest evaporation of water into the atmosphere. This greatly
effects the position of the jet stream and associated storms.

During El Nino (warm phase of ENSO), the jet stream’s position shows a dip in the
Eastern Pacific. The stronger the El Nino, the further east in the Eastern Pacific the
dip in the Jet stream occurs.

The position of this dip in the jet stream is a trough and has a great effect on the
type of weather experienced in North America which ultimately affects the UK also
to a lesser degree.

This eastern shift typically sends the storm track, with huge amounts of tropical
moisture, into California, south of its normal position of the Pacific Northwest.

Very strong El Ninos will cause the trough to shift further south with the average
storm track position moving into Southern California resulting in higher than normal

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rainfall, flash flood occurrences. With the storm track shifted south, the Pacific
Northwest becomes drier and drier as the tropical moisture is shunted south of the
region.

Fig. 9.7 – The winter pattern for El Nino (warm phase ENSO)
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq

Conversely, during La Nina (cold phase of ENSO), this dip in the jet stream shifts
west of its normal position toward the Central Pacific.

Fig. 9.8 – The winter pattern for La Nina (cold phase ENSO)
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq

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The following charts show the regions of greatest impacts caused by the shift of the
jets stream as a result of ENSO. The highlighted areas indicate the significant
changes from normal weather that occurs.

The magnitude of the changes from normal is dependent upon the strength of the
El Nino or La Nina.

Fig. 9.9 – El Nino effects during December through February (warm phase ENSO).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_impacts

Fig. 9.10 – El Nino effects during June through August (warm phase ENSO).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_impacts

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Fig. 9.11 – La Nina effects during December through February (cold phase ENSO).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_impacts

Fig. 9.12 – La Nina effects during June through August (cold phase ENSO).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_impacts

9.4.2 The effects of ENSO on tropical revolving storms

(hurricanes) in the North Atlantic
Hurricane activity in the North Atlantic is more sensitive to El Nino influences than
in any other ocean area. In years with moderate to strong El Nino, the North Atlantic
experiences:

• A substantial reduction in the number of hurricanes.

• A 60% reduction in the numbers of ‘hurricane days’.
• An overall reduction in hurricane intensity.

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This is believed to be due to the stronger than normal westerly winds that develop
in the western North Atlantic and Caribbean region during El Nino years. Other
regions show no or minimal effect.

The table gives the trend in number and intensity of cyclones around the world due
to the effects of El Nino.

Table 9.1 – Summary of effects of El Nino (warm phase ENSO) on the trend and intensity of cyclones worldwide.
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso_impacts

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