EXPERIMENT 14 31ST MARCH 2021

AIM: To solve the question by applying Run’s Test

EXPERIMENT:
In a lottery draw, the winner is decided on the basis of the ticket number is either even or odd. The ticket
buyers suspect that the sale of tickets on any specific day influences the final result and hence claim that
this whole process of deciding the even or odd number on any specific day is rigged. In order to check this
suspicion, the following data on sales of tickets for 3 successive days were collected. Test whether there is
randomness in the data for the 3 days separately as well as all the days combined.
833 949 626 896 438 907
804 722 398 739 608 571
243 890 947 281 733 530
DAY 1
729 827 529 202 472 691
218 631 724 891 403 961
204 140 240 267 448 101

872 198 830 403 468 451

920 302 695 999 417 733
346 567 122 529 707 550
DAY 2
314 373 935 240 563 517
745 609 308 595 827 361
715 573 642 588 106 981

363 390 258 701 969 999

984 218 596 767 173 982
DAY 3 286 618 656 573 187 405
495 554 688 864 645 807
288 512 331 447 576 749
THEORY:
● A run is defined as a succession of identical symbols which are followed or preceded by different
symbols or no symbols at all.
● Let ‘m’ be the number of elements of one kind and ‘n’ be the number of elements of the other kind
in a sequence of N = m+ n binary events. for example
o m = number of +ve signs
o n = number of -ve signs
● Observe the m and n events in the sequence in which they occurred and then determine the
number of runs, ‘r’.
● CASE 1: Small Sample when m ≤ 20 and n ≤ 20; then using table G the critical values of r
corresponding to α=0.05. If rl ≤ r ≤ ru , we may accept Ho concluding that the sample under
consideration is random else reject Ho.
● CASE 2: Large Sample when either m ≥ 20 or n ≥ 20; then using table G cannot be used.
We approximate sampling distribution of r using a normal distribution with
Mean = (2mn/N) +1
2mn(2 mn−N )
Variance = 2
( N−1) N
Then apply normal test to test Ho
CALCULATIONS:
Testing whether there is randomness in the data for the 3 days separately
Ho: The lottery ticket numbers in the sample are random.
H1: The lottery ticket numbers in the sample are not random.

(assigning ‘+’ to all even tickets and ‘– ‘to all odd tickets)

FOR DAY 1
- - + + + -
+ + + - + -
- + - - - +
- - - + + -
+ - + - - -
+ + + - + -
● m = number of +ve signs =17
● n = number of -ve signs =19
● N= m+n = 36
● r = number of runs = 21
Since m ≤ 20 and n ≤ 20, this is the case of a small sample.
From table G the critical values of r corresponding to α=0.05 are:
rl= 12 and ru= 26

Since, rl ≤ r ≤ ru
Therefore, we may accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket numbers in the
sample for day 1 are random.
FOR DAY 2
+ + + - + -
+ + - - - -
+ - + - - +
+ - - + - -
- - + - - -
- - + + + -
● m = number of +ve signs =15
● n = number of -ve signs =21
● N= m+n = 36
● r = number of runs = 18
Since m ≤ 20 but n > 20, this is the case of a large sample.
Therefore, we will use a large sample approximation for the test.
Mean = (2mn/N) +1 = 18.5
2mn(2 mn−N )
Variance = 2 = 8.25
( N−1) N

⇨ r follows Normal distribution with mean = 18.5 and variance = 8.25

⇨ r ~ N (18.5, 8.25)
for r = 18
 Now, Z =(r-mean)/standard deviation
Z = (18-18.5)/ 2.872281
Z = -0.17408
Since |Z| < 1.96, therefore we accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket
numbers in the sample for day 2 are random.

FOR DAY 3
- + + - - -
+ + + - - +
+ + + - - -
- + + + - -
+ + - - + -

● m = number of +ve signs =15

● n = number of -ve signs =15
● N= m+n = 30
● r = number of runs = 13
Since m ≤ 20 and n ≤ 20, this is the case of small sample.
From table G the critical values of r corresponding to α=0.05 are:
rl= 10 and ru= 22

Since, rl ≤ r ≤ ru
Therefore, we may accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket numbers in the
sample for day 3 are random.
FOR ALL DAYS TOGETHER

- - + + + -
+ + + - + -
- + - - - +
- - - + + -
+ - + - - -
+ + + - + -
+ + + - + -
+ + - - - -
+ - + - - +
+ - - + - -
- - + - - -
- - + + + -
- + + - - -
+ + + - - +
+ + + - - -
- + + + - -
+ + - - + -
● m = number of +ve signs =47
● n = number of -ve signs =55
● N= m+n = 102
● r = number of runs = 51
Since m> 20 and n >20, this is the case of large sample.
Therefore, we will use large sample approximation for the test.
Mean = (2mn/N) +1 = 51.68627
2mn(2 mn−N )
Variance = = 24.93477
( N−1) N 2
⇨ r ~ N (51.68627, 24.93477)
for r = 51
Now, Z =(r-mean)/standard deviation
Z = -0.13743
Since |Z| < 1.96, therefore we accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket
numbers in the sample for all the days taken together are random.
RESULT:
Testing whether there is randomness in the data for the 3 days separately
● FOR DAY 1
rl= 12 and ru= 26
Since, rl ≤ r ≤ ru
Therefore, we may accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket numbers in the
sample for day 1 are random.
● FOR DAY 1
Since m ≤ 20 but n > 20, this is the case of large sample.
r ~ N (18.5, 8.25)
for r = 18
Z = -0.17408
Since |Z| < 1.96, therefore we accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket numbers
in the sample for day 2 are random.

● FOR DAY 3
rl= 10 and ru= 22
Since, rl ≤ r ≤ ru
Therefore, we may accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket numbers in the
sample for day 3 are random.
FOR ALL DAYS TOGETHER

Since m > 20 and n > 20, this is the case of large sample.
r ~ N (51.68627, 24.93477)
for r = 51
Z = -0.13743
Since |Z| < 1.96, therefore we accept Ho at 5% level of significance. Hence, the lottery ticket
numbers in the sample for all the days taken together are random.