Media briefing

Overview of air
transport in 2021
and recent
developments

25 January 2022
1
Economics
RPKs recovered to 42% of 2019 levels in 2021
Air cargo remained strong (up 7% vs. 2019)
RPKs & CTKs, % ch. vs. the same month in 2019 Full year 2021 vs.
full year 2019:
20% Global CTKs
6.9%
0%

Domestic RPKs
-20% -28.2%

-40%
-58.4%
Total RPKs
-60% -75.5%

-80%
International RPKs
-100%
May-20

May-21
Aug-20

Nov-20
Oct-20

Oct-21
Feb-20

Dec-20

Feb-21

Aug-21

Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20
Jun-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21
Jun-21

Sep-21
Mar-20

Mar-21
2 Source: IATA Monthly Statistics 25 January 2022
Performance of domestic markets varied
Russia the strongest, China impacted by zero-COVID policy
Domestic RPKs, % change vs. the same month in 2019
60% Full year 2021 vs.
Australia Brazil China Russia US full year 2019:
40%
24.2%
20%

0% -27.2%
-20% -23.8%
-40% -24.4%
-60% -62.4%
-80%

-100%
Apr-20

Apr-21
Jan-20

Mar-20

Dec-20
Feb-20

Jan-21

Mar-21
Jun-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Jun-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Dec-21
Oct-21
Aug-20

Aug-21
May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21
3 Source: IATA Monthly Statistics 25 January 2022
Recovery in international travel was slow
Asia Pacific lagged the rest of the industry due to closed borders
International RPKs, % change versus the same month in 2019
20%

0%

-20% Africa Asia Pacific Europe Full year 2021 vs.

full year 2019:
Latin America Middle East North America
-40% -65%

-60%
-72%
-80%
-93%
-100%
Apr-20
Jan-20

Mar-20

Dec-20

Dec-21
Feb-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Apr-21
Jun-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Jun-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Oct-21
Aug-20

Aug-21
May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21
4 Source: IATA Monthly Statistics 25 January 2022
Premium and economy international RPKs
recovering at the same rate
Premium and economy class international RPKs, % of 2019 levels
Int’l RPKs, % of the same month in 2019
45%

40%
Premium class Economy class
35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21

5 Source: IATA Monthly Statistics 25 January 2022

But willingness to travel remains strong
Ticket sales rebounded in South Africa after Omicron restrictions eased
0%
Total bookings, % ch in 7-day MA versus 2019 South Africa New COVID cases per million, 7-day MA
500

-10% 450
New COVID cases Bookings
-20% 400

-30% 350

-40% 300

-50% 250

-60% 200

-70% 150

-80% 100

-90% 50

-100% 0
15-Nov

17-Nov

19-Nov

21-Nov

23-Nov

25-Nov

27-Nov

29-Nov

1-Dec

3-Dec

5-Dec

7-Dec

9-Dec

2-Jan

4-Jan

6-Jan

8-Jan
11-Dec

13-Dec

15-Dec

17-Dec

19-Dec

21-Dec

23-Dec

25-Dec

27-Dec

29-Dec

31-Dec

10-Jan

12-Jan

14-Jan

16-Jan
Bookings date

6 Source: IATA DDS, Our World In Data 25 January 2022

No clear link between new cases and travel restrictions
Restrictions often maintained after cases have fallen
Travel restrictions, weighted average of regions New COVID cases, 000s 7-day MA
4 - total Peak at 2,200
border closure4 1000
900

3 - closed to 800
some regions 3
700
Global travel restrictions 600
2 - quarantine (LHS)
arrivals from2 500
high risk regions
400

Global new COVID cases 300

1 - screening
1
(RHS) 200
100
0
0 - no measures 0
Apr-20

Aug-20

Apr-21

Aug-21
Jan-20

Mar-20

Sep-20

Dec-20
Feb-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Mar-21
Oct-20

Feb-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Dec-21
Oct-21
May-20

May-21
Jun-20

Nov-20

Jun-21

Nov-21
7 Source: IATA Economics using data from ECDC, Oxford University 25 January 2022
New COVID outbreaks put lower burden on healthcare
The start of a new phase of the pandemic?
UK, cases per million UK, hospitalizations per million
3000 3000

Cases
2500 Hospitalisations 2500

2000 2000

1500 Gap between 1500

new cases and
hospitalizations
1000 1000
widened

500 500

0 0

8 Source: Our World In Data 25 January 2022

Limited impact of maintaining travel restrictions
Extended restrictions do not reduce new cases but damage economy

9 Source: Edge Health and Oxera 25 January 2022

Pressures on operating costs are rising
Jet fuel price at elevated levels, labor costs up amid labor shortages
US$/bbl
Jet fuel price development

140 Average jet fuel price

as of 21 January 2022
120
101.1
100

80

60
77.8

40
Jet fuel price forecast
as of October 2021
20

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

10 Source: IATA Economics Airline Industry Financial Forecast update, October 2021, Platts 25 January 2022
Airlines optimistic about passenger recovery
Cargo growth expected to ease from record-high but to remain strong
Business confidence, expected change in traffic growth over the next 12 months
100

90 Passenger volumes
80

70 Cargo volumes
60
Weighted score:
50 >50 improvement
40 =50 no change
<50 decrease
30

20

10

0
Jan 2019 Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Oct 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021 Oct 2021 Jan 2022

11 Source: IATA Business Confidence Survey - January 2022 – preliminary results 25 January 2022