Technical Analysis of Selected Industry Leaders of Indian Stock Market Under The Cloud of Covid-19

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Technical Analysis of Selected Industry Leaders of Indian Stock Market under

the Cloud of Covid- 19
Article · August 2020

DOI: 10.37896/GOR33.03/473
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GEDRAG & ORGANISATIE REVIEW - ISSN:0921-5077 http://lemma-tijdschriften.com/
Technical Analysis of Selected Industry Leaders of Indian Stock

Market under the Cloud of Covid- 19
Dr. Girija Nandini

Assistant Professor
School of Management, Centurion University of Technology and Management,
Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
girijanandini@cutm.ac.in
Dr. Ratidev Samal
Assistant Professor
School of Management Studies, G.M University, Sambalpur, Odisha, India
ratidevsamal@gmail.com
Abstract
Technical Analysis is a technique to understand and forecast the stock market. It is a technique
to analyse the historical stock price of stock market to predict the future to get more profit and
minimize the risk. By using technical analysis one can understand the stock market in a better
way. So it is a technique widely used by investors and portfolio managers. The purpose of the
study is to find suitable combination of technical indicators to catch the trend of the market, to
assess the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on selected industry leaders, to identify the
abnormal movement in shares and finding different entry-exit points and providing hints about
probable future trend. The data have been obtained from NSE site over a period of one year and
analysis is conducted on excel with the help of selected technical indicators like SMA, EMA,
MACD and BB. Using a combination of technical indicators is better than depending on any
individual indicators, coronavirus has a deep impact on market and behind any abnormal
moment in the market there is a valid reason.The research captures different impetus of financial
markets which enhances better decision making at the part of day and swing traders and
investors. The larger part of the society which is unemployed and those having leisure time will
be benefitted by earning part of their livelihood.
Keywords- Stock market, Price, Indicators, Technical analysis, Trading, Investment
VOLUME 33 : ISSUE 03 - 2020 Page No:837

1. Introduction
This study focuses on technical analysis of some listed companies which are leaders in their
respective industries. The objective is to identify the trend in price movement of shares of
selected industry leaders and finding if any abnormalities present in the movement since one
year. Companies included in the study are HDFC Bank, RELIANCE & TCS. All the stocks
included under study are a part of NIFTY 50. The indicators used in this study are Simple
Moving Average (SMA), Exponential moving average (EMA), Moving average convergence
divergence (MACD) and Bollinger Band (BB). Industry leaders are considered for study reason
being the movement of other companies in industry normally follow the movement of the
leaders. Technical analysis is performed through different indicators in order to forecast the
future price movement based on past price movement. This paper aims at carrying out technical
analysis of selected companies for assisting investment decision in Indian stock market.
Indian stock market is been the major attraction centre among traders and investors across the
globe. The major factors behind the attraction are large economy, consistent growth, potential for
development and huge customer base. The citizenship amendment act (CAA), 2019 will further
increase the population in our country there by increasing the number of potential customers.
National stock exchange’s fifty commonly known as NIFTY includes top companies from
different sectors.
2. Review of Literature
Juhi Ahuja (2012) studied on Indian capital market. She found that due to many reforms Indian
capital market is developing. Setty, Rangaswamy & Suresh (2010) financial market is a market
where assets can be purchased and sold. Two types of analysis are used in stock market. One is
fundamental analysis and other is technical analysis. Simple moving average, exponential
moving average and weighting multiplier can be used for the technical analysis. Ramadoss &
Muthuvel (2013) Technical analysis is a tool where historical stock price is used to forcast the
future stock price. Setty, Rangaswamy & Suresh (2010) Financial statements of the company is
analysed in the fundamental analysis by using different techniques.Armour et al (2010) analysed
the Irish Stock Market by taking 20 years historical stock price. They have used MACD and
found MACD rule underperformed the buy and hold benchmark. Krishnaprabha and
Vijayakumar (2015) studied on Indian stock market to find the risk and return. They found that
investors can get more return by investing for a long term period rather than short term.
DeBondt, W. et al.(2010) done their research on behavioural finance. They have taken
academicians and practitioners for their study. They found a big difference in academics and
practitioners while using behavioural finance. Sudheer (2012) analysed the stock price by using
technical analysis to find the future stock price and when to enter or exit from the stock market.
He suggested to purchase the share when the price is low and sell when the price is high to get a
good amount of profit. Varathan & Tamilenthi (2012) done their research on technical Analysis

by taking past price and volume into consideration. They tried to find how to get more return by
doing correct predictions.
3. Objectives of the study

a. To predict the future trend of stock price by using technical analysis.
b. To identify any abnormal movement in the period of study if any.
c. To study the reasons behind such abnormal movements and capturing the impacts before
and after the event occur.
d. To suggest the correct timing and price level for traders and investors in taking position
or making investment decisions.
4. Research framework
To accomplish the objectives of the study historical stock price is used. The data is collected for
a period of one year that is from 20.03.2019 to 19.03.2020 from NSE site. The data is filtered on
the basis of closing prices of every single trading day and it is being imported to excel for further
analysis. The historical data is collected for all three companies that are HDFC Bank,
RELIANCE and TCS over the same period. The technical indicators used in this study are
Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential moving average (EMA), Moving average
convergence divergence (MACD) and Bollinger Band (BB).
5. Data analysis, findings and discussion

5.1 Simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA)
Here time frame lines have been used that are 10 days & 15 days for both SMA & EMA. First
the calculations are done for SMA by taking the average of closing price of last 10 days and last
15 days. In SMA equal weightage is given to past data. Hence we draw 3 lines for each
company, Where 1st line represents the actual line of price movement (based on closing prices),
2nd line represents 10 days SMA (average of last 10 days closing prices) and the 3rd line
represents 15 days SMA (average of last 15 days closing prices). Out of two SMA line the longer
time frame SMA line (15 days) is known as slow line and the shorter time frame SMA line (10
days) is known as fast line. When the fast line cuts the slower line from bottom it is considered
as a bullish cross over where we can take long position. When the fast line cuts the slower line
from above it is considered as a bearish cross over where we can take short position.
EMA is considered as a more smooth line in comparison to SMA as it gives more weightage to
recent data than past data. EMA is calculated by using formula
EMA= {closing price- EMA(previous day)}x multiplier+ EMA(previous day)
Where multiplier = {2/(Time period+1)}

The 1st EMA will be the SMA for the said period (since we don’t have any previous EMA before
that).
Here we draw 3 lines for each company, Where 1st line represents the actual line of price
movement (based on closing prices), 2nd line represents 10 days and the 3rd line represents 15
days EMA. Out of two EMA line the longer time frame EMA line (15 days) is known as slow
line and the shorter time frame EMA line (10 days) is known as fast line. When the fast line cuts
the slower line from bottom it is considered as a bullish cross over where we can take long
position. When the fast line cuts the slower line from above it is considered as a bearish cross
over where we can take short position.
HDFC BANK
1400
1300
1200
1100 CLOSING PRICE
1000 10 DAYS SMA

15 DAYS SMA
900
800
In the above chart there are three clearly visible points where traders & investors could have
taken positions and made huge profit. The important dates are 15.07.2019, 20.09.2019 &
25.02.2020. On date 15.07.19 there is a clear bearish crossover where the 10 days SMA line is
cutting clearly the 15 days SMA line from above, after this point it is clearly visible that the
share price has gone significantly down. On date 20.09.19 there is a clean bullish crossover
where the 10 days SMA cutting the 15 days SMA from below, after this moment there is
significant bull rally which could have been an excellent point for taking position. On date 25th
February the 10 days SMA line cuts 15 days SMA from above, hence generating an excellent
bearish cross over. After this point the share has gone significantly long down trend. The fall is
drastic because the world was affected by corona virus, there were lock downs as a result the
entire economy of the world has almost stopped. So this point was an excellent point to create
position and to earn good amount of money.

1400
1300
1200
1100 CLOSING PRICE
1000 10 DAYS EMA

15 DAYS EMA
900
800
Similar to the SMA line the EMA line has shown similar behavior with little variation in dates.
As per the analysis of EMA lines the important dates are 10.7.2019, 12.9.2019 & 20.01.2020. On
date 10.7.2019 there is a clear bearish crossover where the 10 days EMA line cutting the 15 days
EMA from above. After that point the trend continued for a longer period, hence there was
opportunity for making short position. On date 12.09.2019 one bullish crossover is generated, the
10 days EMA line cuts the 15 days EMA line from below. The trend has continued for a long
period, one could have creates long position. Similarly on date 20.01.2020 one strong bearish
crossover is generated where the 10 days EMA line cuts the 15 days EMA line from above.
There was opportunity for creating a short position. All three entry points continued and
maintained the trend, hence traders and investors should have make handsome money.
RELIANCE
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300 CLOSING PRICE
1200 10 DAYS SMA
1100 15 DAYS SMA
1000
900

In Reliance during the given period there were two important dates which are 24.9.2019 and
31.12.2019. On date 24.09.2019 there was a clear bullish crossover because the 10 days SMA
line cuts the 15 days SMA line from below, hence there was opportunity for making long
position. On date 31.12.2019 a strong bearish crossover is generated, here the 10days SMA line
cuts the 15 days SMA line from above. After this point there is a sharp fall in the price of share,
hence trader & investors could have made handsome money by taking short position.
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300 CLOSING PRICE

1200 10 DAYS EMA
1100 15 DAYS EMA
1000
900
In Reliance during the given period there were two important dates which are 24.9.2019 and
31.12.2019. On date 24.09.2019 there was a clear bullish crossover because the 10 days EMA
line cuts the 15 days EMA line from below, hence there was opportunity for making long
position. On date 31.12.2019 a strong bearish crossover is generated, here the 10days EMA line
cuts the 15 days EMA line from above. After this point there is a sharp fall in the price of share,
hence trader & investors could have made handsome money by taking short position.

TCS
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000 CLOSING PRICE
1900 10 DAYS SMA
1800 15 DAYS SMA
1700
1600
During the period TCS remain in sideways movement and there are many bullish and bearish
crossovers, hence many entry and exit points though the rallies are not that long. On 28.02.2020
there is a bearish crossover where the 10 days SMA cuts the 15 days SMA from above. This
rally continued for long, hence opportunity was there to create long position by traders and
investors.
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000 CLOSING PRICE
1900 10 DAYS EMA
1800 15 DAYS EMA
1700
1600
crossovers, hence many entry and exit points though the rallies are not that long. Mostly the
market remain undecided. On 26.02.2020 there is a bearish crossover where the 10 days EMA

cuts the 15 days EMA from above. This rally continued for long, hence opportunity was there to
create long position by traders and investors.
5.2 Moving average convergence and divergence (MACD)
Here MACD (12,26,9) time frame is taken for the analysis. MACD indicator has two lines one
is MACD line another line is signal line. Here MACD line is drawn by taking the difference of
12 days EMA and 26 days EMA (MACD line=12 days EMA-26 days EMA). Signal line is
drawn by taking 9 days EMA of MACD line. MACD histograms are drawn by taking the
differences of MACD line and signal line. When both MACD & signal line are above the zero
line it is considered to be bullish trend. When both MACD & Signal line are below the zero line
it is considered as a bearish trend. If both the lines are below zero line and MACD line cuts the
signal line from bottom it is considered as initial buying signal. If both the lines are above the
zero line and MACD line cuts the signal line from bottom it is considered as conform buying
signal. If both the lines are above zero line and MACD line cuts signal line from top it is
considered as initial selling signal. If both the lines are below zero line and MACD line cuts
signal line from above it is considered as conform selling signal. Based upon this position will be
taken. Histogram represents the difference between MACD line and signal line. The histograms
are drawn above the zero line when the MACD line is above signal line and histograms are
drawn below the zero line when the MACD line is below the signal line. If the size of histograms
are small it represents there is less strength in taking any decision.
HDFC BANK

As per MACD the important dates are 30.04.19, 08.07.19 & 20.02.20 because on these dates
important crossovers are generated. On date 30.04.19 the MACD line cuts the signal line from
below hence the bullish crossover is generated and there is significant rise in share price. On date
08.07.19 a bearish crossover is generated where the MACD line cuts the signal line from above
after this point there is significant fall in share price and the rally continued for long. Similarly
on date 20.02.20 there is a bearish cross over where the MACD line cuts the signal line from
above. After this point there is a significant fall in share price. So among these points long
position, short position and short position could have been created respectively which would
have earned good amount of money to traders and investors.
RELIANCE
As per MACD the important dates are 23.09.19 & 26.02.20 because on these dates important
crossovers are generated. On date 23.09.19 the MACD line cuts the signal line from below hence
the bullish crossover is generated and there is significant rise in share price. On date 26.02.20 a
bearish crossover is generated where the MACD line cuts the signal line from above after this
point there is significant fall in share price and the rally continued for long. So on the first date
there was a chance for creating long position and on second date there was a chance of creating
short position which would have earned good amount of money to traders and investors.

TCS
crossovers, hence many entry and exit points though the rallies are not that long. On date
25.02.20 there is a bearish crossover where the MACD line cuts the signal line from above and
that trend continued for significant amount of time.
5.3 Bollinger band (BB)
Bollinger band is a technical indicator which carries three lines they are upper band, lower band
and middle line. Middle one is 20 days SMA line. Upper band line is drawn by taking data of
(SMA+2 x standard deviation). Similarly the lower band will be drawn by taking data (SMA+2 x
standard deviation). Here standard deviation will be calculated on closing prices of last 20 days.
The interpretation is if the candle or line touches the upper or lower band but if it could not break
it there is possibility of reversal in the movement. If one candle breaks either upper band or
lower band then we have to wait for the formation of the next candle, if the next candle clearly
cross the previous breakdown candle then we can create position in that direction. If the next
candle could not cross the breakdown candle there is possibility of reversal. If the cross over
candle is too big we should not create position even if the next candle cross this. When both
upper and lower band becomes squeeze or narrow there is a possibility of break out in either
direction. If one candle is formed outside of the bubble & the next candle formed ins
ide the bubble there might be trend reversal. Mostly the share price moves within both lines.

HDFC BANK
1400
1300
1200
CLOSING PRICE
1100
20 DAYS SMA(Middle band)
1000
UPPER BAND
900 LOWER BAND
800
The technical indicator Bollinger Band has indicated three important dates where significant
movement has seen once closing price line touched either lower or upper band. The important
dates are 04.07.2019, 19.09.2019 (share splitted) and 24.12.19. On 04.07.19 as the actual price
line touched the upper band from that date the trend reversal occurred and share price has gone
significantly down. The date 19.09.2019 is very important for HDFC BANK because that day
the share was splitted and once it touched the lower band there is a serious abnormal growth in
share price and the rally continued for long. On date 24.12.2019 the actual price line has touched
the upper band, from that point there is a trend reversal and significant decline in share price and
the rally continued for long. Hence traders and investors could have made enough money by
taking long, long and short position respectively on these important dates.
RELIANCE
1700
1600
1500
1400
CLOSING PRICE
1300
1200 20 DAYS SMA(Middle band)
1100 UPPER BAND
1000 LOWER BAND
900

The technical indicator Bollinger Band has indicated three important dates where significant
movement has seen once closing price line touched either lower or upper band. The important
dates are 03.05.19, 08.08.19, 20.01.20. On 03.05.19 as the actual price line touched the upper
band from that date the trend reversal occurred and share price has gone significantly down. On
08.08.19 the actual price line touched the lower band and the trend reversed into bullish run
which continued for long with significant increase in share price. On date 20.01.2020 the actual
price line has touched the upper band, from that point there is a trend reversal and significant
decline in share price and the rally continued for long. Hence traders and investors could have
made enough money by taking short, long and short position respectively on these important
dates.
TCS
2400
2300
2200
2100
CLOSING PRICE
2000
20 DAYS SMA(Middle band)
1900
UPPER BAND
1800
LOWER BAND
1700
1600
Over the given period TCS remained in sideways movement without having any proper
direction. On date 19.02.2020 only once the actual price line touched the upper band there is a
reversal in trend the share price started falling there onwards for significant amount of time.
5.4 Combined indicators
The stock market is very much uncertain, that is the reason we cannot predict the stock
movement accurately every time. But in lot of darkness the indicators shows some light to
predict the movement. The problem occurs if we are depending upon any single indicator that
might generates some false buying and selling signals, hence to remain in safe side and to predict
the movement with higher accuracy we should use a combination of technical indicators. Here in
the below mentioned figures simultaneously I am using different indicators like EMA, MACD
and Bollinger Band for individual companies under study.

HDFC Bank
Taking all three indicators combining on 30.04.19, 08.07.19 & 20.02.20 all have indicated for
similar position with very little variation in date. On 30.04.19 the 10 days EMA line cuts the 15
days EMA line from below. There is bullish crossover in MACD where the MACD line cuts the
signal line from bottom and in Bollinger band there is a trend reversal. Hence a nice point was
created for a long position. Similarly nearer to date 08.07.19 all three indicators have indicated
towards a bearish trend so from that point there was significant fall in share price. Similarly
nearer to date 20.02.20 all the indicators have again shown a bearish trend so after that point
there is a drastic fall in share price and trend continued for long. Hence traders and investors
should have made handsome money by creating long, short and short position respectively on
given dates.
RELIANCE

Taking all three indicators combining on 23.09.19 & 26.02.20 all have indicated for similar
position with very little variation in date. Nearer to date 23.09.19 the 10 days EMA line cuts the
15 days EMA line from below. There is bullish crossover in MACD where the MACD line cuts
the signal line from bottom and in Bollinger band there is a trend reversal. Hence a nice point
was created for a long position. Similarly nearer to date 26.02.20 all three indicators have
indicated towards a bearish trend so from that point there was significant fall in share price.
There is a bearish crossover in EMA as 10 days EMA line cuts the 15 days EMA line from
above, MACD line generated a bearish signal as the MACD line cuts the signal line from above
and the Bollinger band shown a trend reversal as soon as it touched the upper band. Hence
traders and investors should have made handsome money by creating long and short position
respectively on given dates.
TCS
Over the given period TCS remained in sideways movement without having any proper direction
and the rallies were short. On date nearer to 19.02.2020 all three indicators have indicated
towards a bearish trend so from that point there was significant fall in share price. There is a
bearish crossover in EMA as 10 days EMA line cuts the 15 days EMA line from above, MACD
line generated a bearish signal as the MACD line cuts the signal line from above and the
Bollinger band shown a trend reversal as soon as it touched the upper band. Hence traders and
investors should have made handsome money by creating a long position.

5.5 Major events and abnormal movements
It is true that market is driven by the sentiment of the people and in market two factors work one
is fear and greed. So the abnormal movement comes from abnormal events, during my period of
study some important decisions were taken at our country level to which the market reacted.
The major events are
On 05.07.19 the union budget was declared, it do not had much impact on market as there is no
significant hike or fall in share prices neither in broader indices like SENSEX, NIFTY and
BANKNIFTY. Overall the market was not quite excited and perhaps things declared did not
match to the expectations of the market.
On 23.08.19, our finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced a slew of measures to
eradicate slowdown and bringing growth. The steps include an upfront release of Rs 70,000 crore
to public sector banks, announcement regarding mega merger of different public sector banks
where the total number of banks will come down to 12 from 27, measures to remedy slowdown
in auto sector, improve taxes compliance and help MSMEs and India Inc. These news has
excited the market significantly the announcements were as per the expectation of the market.
Since the declaration came in evening the serious positive impact has seen on market both on
date 23.08.19 and 24.08.19. The impact was so exciting there was huge growth in most of the
shares prices and important indices like SENSEX, NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.
On 20.09.19 another very important event occurred when our country’s finance minister declare
about the historic decision taken by the government i.e. regarding reduction in corporate tax. The
decision was for existing companies it is reduced to 22% from 30% and for new companies it is
reduced to 15% from 25%, market responded this news very positively and the impact was seen
on stock market in terms of huge growth in most of the shares prices and important indices like
SENSEX, NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.
30.01.2020 India reported the 1st case of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic which was
originated from china belongs to Kerala. After this date the number of COVID cases went on
increasing across the globe and in India day by day. The WHO also declared COVID-19 as a
pandemic on 11th march 2020. Since no vaccination is available for this disease yet and it can
easily spread from one person to another, so the most of the country went for lockdown and
shutdown as a precautionary measure. The world economy has been stopped due to shut down of
many industries. India and the world have never seen such things before in history. The
immediate impact has seen on stock market in terms of drastic fall in all the individual share
prices and on our major indices like SENSEX, NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. The fall was so
furious nifty came down to below 8000 pts. This incident has almost dragged back the share
market to 10 years before. We can also see the impact on our companies under study (HDFC
BANK, RELIANCE and TCS), since January there is drastic fall in share price and it is
continuing.

6. Conclusion
Stock market is highly uncertain as it is affected by many internal and external factors of the
organization like news, business situation different rates, pandemic disease, disaster etc. In such
uncertainties of darkness technical indicators provides some lights to traders and investors to
take better decision. Instead of depending on any single technical indicator we should use a
combination of few technical indicators reason being one indicator might give a false signal but
not all at a time. As per technical analysis market is weak now and further market will become
weaker and it might continue a long bearish trend. In the period of study it is observed that in
majority of time technical analysis is correct, we should have confidence in those points and the
entry and exit timing has to be proper. In the period of study lots of events have been occurred.
Positive events impacted the market in a very positive way and negative events also drastically
affected the market. So one should always have updated information about the happenings in
business world and in general to grab the opportunity. In this paper it is highlighted for
individual companies’ different entry and exit points and whether to take long and short position.
Similarly in future traders and investors can use a combined technical indicator to identify
different points to create a position.
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Technical Analysis of Selected Industry Leaders of Indian Stock

Dr. Girija Nandini

Keywords- Stock market, Price, Indicators, Technical analysis, Trading, Investment

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3. Objectives of the study

5. Data analysis, findings and discussion

EMA= {closing price- EMA(previous day)}x multiplier+ EMA(previous day)

Where multiplier = {2/(Time period+1)}

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1100 CLOSING PRICE

1000 10 DAYS SMA

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1100 CLOSING PRICE

1000 10 DAYS EMA

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1300 CLOSING PRICE

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5.2 Moving average convergence and divergence (MACD)

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5.3 Bollinger band (BB)

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5.4 Combined indicators

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5.5 Major events and abnormal movements

The major events are

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