CAPE Geography

Unit 1
Ms. Luke
 Population
Change
Population and Settlement

Natural Vs. Migration

How do countries measure
population?
Census taking had its beginning in ancient times in the countries of Egypt, Babylonia,
China, Palestine and Rome. Census enumerations are mentioned in biblical writings
citing 1491 B.C. and 1017 B.C. as crucial dates in census history.

Population and Settlement

In these earlier times, population counts were undertaken to determine fiscal, labour
and military obligations and were usually directed towards heads of households,
males of military age, taxpayers or adult citizens. In later years, censuses became
important events across the Roman Empire, among French colonies and in the
Scandinavian countries.
How do countries measure
population?
he first official census in Trinidad and Tobago was taken in 1844. The second was
done in 1851 and since then, censuses have been conducted at ten-year intervals. The
last decennial census was scheduled to be conducted in May/June 2010 but was

Population and Settlement

deferred when a Central Government Elections was called. The new date of that
census was 9th January 2011. The 2021 census was scheduled for September.

Why do this?
Natural increase
The difference between birth rates and death rates.

Data on the age and sex of the population, as well as

other variables, such as numbers of births, are
collected. Nationally, the number of immigrants
and emigrants are also collected. These data
provide important insight on population changes
both by natural increase and net migration.
However, on a global scale, migration has no effect
on population change.
Influencing Factors
There are many factors that birth rate, death
rate, natural increase, fertility rate, life
expectancy and doubling time.

Population and Settlement

Age and Sex Composition
Culture and Social Customs
Government Policies
Improvements to Health and Sanitation
Crude Birth Rate
The number of live births per 1000 population in a given
year.

It is crude because there is no consideration of the

age and sex composition which affects a country's
birth rate. It contains males as well as females who
are not in the childbearing age group.

E.g. A country with a high proportion of young

adults will have a high birth rate. Countries with a
low proportion of women also have low birth rates.
Age and Sex
Composition
The proportion of males and females, young and old
affect the way the population experiences change.

The median age of the In Finland, the figures Birth rates of less than
population of Mali in were 43.1 and 15.6%. 18 per 1000 are
West Africa in 2009 was Mali has a birth rate of considered low.
16.33, with 47.2% of the 41 per 1000 and Finland, Barbados has a birth
total population being 8. Birth rates of 30 and rate of 11, Trinidad and
between the ages of 0 to above are considered to Tobago, 13 and Jamaica
14. be high. 16 per 1000.
Crude Death/Mortality
Rate
The deaths per 1000 persons of a population in a year.

Mortality rates are usually higher in less

economically developed than in more economically
developed countries (MEDCs). However, these rates
are not meaningful when compared because the age
structure affects the death rate significantly.
Countries with a high proportion of young adults
will have a lower death rate than countries with an
ageing population.
Age and Sex
Composition
The proportion of males and females, young and old
affect the way the population experiences change.

The death rate in To solve this problem,

Barbados is 9 per 1000 the death rate is
while Italy’s is 11. 22.8% calculated for different
of Italy’s population is age groups. This is the
over 65 years old which age-specific death rate.
is double Barbados’ at
11%.
Infant Mortality Rate
The number of deaths in the first year of life.

The infant mortality rate in Mali is 60 per 1000 live

births, the rate in Italy is 3 and the rate in Barbados
is 12.

What are some reasons for the differences in

infant mortality rates?
Infant Mortality Rate
The number of deaths in the first year of life.

1. Nutrition, medical and disease conditions in less

economically developed countries (LEDCs), are
usually poorer so multiple births and poor diet may
result in low birth weight and sickly babies who die
before they are one year old. In MEDCs, babies are
generally born to very healthy parents, so babies
survive past year one. These parents also have
fewer babies.
Infant Mortality Rate
The number of deaths in the first year of life.

2. Medical conditions for pregnant women and

babies in LEDCs are often very inadequate. Babies
may be born in very unsanitary conditions with
little medical assistance available. In MEDCs,
prenatal and antenatal medical supervision is the
norm so the development of the foetus and baby are
closely monitored.
Infant Mortality Rate
The number of deaths in the first year of life.

3. Young babies are very susceptible to disease. In

LEDCs, gastroenteritis and other water-borne
diseases can kill babies who are already
malnourished. In MEDCs, many of these early
childhood diseases have been eradicated through
easy access to vaccines and other medication.
Culture and Social
Customs
Factors like religion, the age of marriage, the status of women
and population policies affect birth rates in a country.

Religion plays a role in Some very orthodox or

how easily accessible conservative religious
contraception and sects will prohibit family
family planning is for planning via the use of
some women. unnatural contraceptives.
Culture and Social
Customs
Factors like religion, the age of marriage, the status of women
and population policies affect birth rates in a country.

In many countries, the Where women have easier

level of education in the
country and especially
among women affects
the birth rate.
access to educational
opportunities and are
involved in 'decent' work
(according to the ILO) they
limit their family size.
What is decent work?
It involves opportunities for work that is productive and delivers a fair income,
security in the workplace and social protection for families, better prospects for
personal development and social integration, freedom for people to express their

Population and Settlement

concerns, organize and participate in the decisions that affect their lives and equality
of opportunity and treatment for all women and men.
Government Policies
The decisions of such women who work full time during the childbearing years
are influenced by government policies such as funded health and child care
benefits.

For example, Scandinavian

countries have more generous
benefits for families with
children than Italy and the birth
rate in Sweden is 50%higher than
in Italy.
Fertility Rate
The average number of children that a woman would bear
if she lived her full reproductive lifetime.

In a country with a total fertility rate of two, a

woman would have, on average, two children
during her lifetime.

The FR of Mali is 5.92 while the FR of Finland is

1.53. The replacement fertility rate, however, is
considered to be between 2.1 and 2.3 or even
higher, depending on the death rate.

The same factors that affect BR, affect FR for the

same reasons.
Improvements to
Health and Sanitation
In many LEDCs death rates have declined
because of modern medicine and improvements
in sanitation.

There have also been However, life expectancy at birth in Botswana

improvements in social fell from 61 years in 1385 to 50 in 2002. Most
conditions - better diets, countries in the southern region of Africa had
better housing. As a HIV/AIDS-related death rates greater than 100
result, life expectancy at per 100,000. In South Africa and Mozambique,
birth is increasing. it was over 200 per 100,000.
Life expectancy
The number of years an individual is expected to live or
their lifespan.

Doubling time
The number of years it takes a population to double itself if
the present growth is maintained.
t = 70 / k
Calculating
Doubling Time
The birth rate in Jamaica in 2009 was 18 per 1000 and the death rate, 7.2. Its rate of
natural increase was 10.8 per 1000. This rate is usually expressed as a percentage, that
is, 1.08% annually.

The natural increase in Germany is -1.99% and without immigration, its population
would be shrinking. When a country's birth plus immigration is less than deaths plus
emigration, that country will experience a negative population growth or natural
decrease. Germany is experiencing negative population growth. The population of
Japan is also declining.
To calculate doubling time (t) you use the following formula:

t = 70 / k

70 = the natural logarithm of 2

k = the percentage growth rate

Jamaica with a growth rate of 1.08% will have a doubling time of 70 / 1.08 = 65 years.
 Most settlements are represented by orange dots
with the exception of the capital which is
represented by an orange star.
Low density in the interior due to forested areas,
mountains and few roads. Therefore it is clear that
relief or topography is a major factor affecting
population distribution in Dominica.
High population density around the capital Roseau.
Case Access to jobs in the government and commercial
offices, and retailing. Main cultural and social
Study #1
centre.
Dominica High density in Portsmouth due to main
commercial and service centre.
High density in villages such as Mahaut and St.
Joseph.
High density on the coasts with access to
agricultural land, schools, and other services. It is
easier to build roads, houses and other buildings
and also to practice agriculture in flatter areas.
Dispersed population on the east coast.
 China's antinatalist policies have
been the most successful in
restricting population growth. In
1965, the population was 540
million and the birth rate was 37

Case Study per 1,000. The one-child policy was

introduced in 1979 with
#1 China: exemptions for rural communities,
Antinatalist only-child parents, and ethnic
minorities (Han and Mongols).
Late marriages were encouraged,
free contraceptives were made
available and there were severe
penalties if families did not
comply.
 Incentives included:
Cash awards
Preferential access to housing,
education and health services

Case Study Penalties included:

#1 China: Fines: China's government has

collected $315bn in extra-child
Antinatalist fines since 1980.
Job loss and difficulty finding a
job
Forced sterilization
 In 2009, the birth rate in China was
12.3 per 1,000. It has been estimated
that the policy has averted about 400
million births. But the policy has
created several problems:

Case Study The '4-2-1' problem summarizes the

#1 China: strain on one child to provide for

four grandparents and two parents.
Antinatalist
 Gender imbalance and infanticide:

Some families, faced with limited

resources, may have chosen to
prioritise boys in terms of

Case Study healthcare and nurturing. Some

couples employed illegal means to
#1 China: ensure that their one child was a
Antinatalist son. Female foetuses were
sometimes aborted or girls
abandoned. There are now 1.26
males for every 1 female with an
estimated 40 to 60 million 'missing'
females.
 In France and many European
countries, in the 1960s there was a
decline in the fertility rate. France

Case Study faced a labour shortage and a

demand for women to work in the
#2 France services. In 1939, the French
Pronatalist passed the “Code de la Famille” to
boost the fertility rate. France's
fertility rate (1.84) is now the
third-highest in Europe.
 Incentives included:

Cash incentives to mothers who

stayed at home to care for
children.

Case Study
Subsidising holidays.
#2 France
Pronatalist Banning the sale of contraceptives
(repealed in 1967).

Payment of up to £1064 to couples

having their third child.
 Generous maternity grants (near
full pay for 20 weeks for the first
child to 40 weeks or more for the
third child).
Case Study
#2 France 100% mortgage and preferential
treatment in the allocation of
Pronatalist three-bedroom council flats.

Full tax benefits to parents until

the youngest child reaches 18.
 30% fare reduction on all public
transport for three-child families.

Pension schemes for

mothers/housewives.
Case Study
#2 France Child-orientated development
policies e.g. provisioning of
Pronatalist creches/day nurseries etc.
Depending on the family’s income,
childcare costs from virtually
nothing to around €500 a month
for the most well off of families.
 Nursing mothers are encouraged
Case Study to work part-time or take a weekly

#2 France day off work.

Pronatalist Paternity leave of two weeks.

 Some evidence suggests that some
of the improvement in Frances
fertility rate is due to immigration

Case Study and not due to the pro-natalist

policy. Immigrants are generally
#2 France young and of childbearing age.
Pronatalist However, France’s net migration
rate is only 1.46 migrants per 1,000
of the population so the effect
would still be minimal.
 The policy is costing the
government billions of euros on
top of what it is costing the

Case Study government to support the ageing

population. The French population
#2 France is currently 67.39 million and the
Pronatalist government argues that they will
reach their goal of 75 million by
2050 using data collected by
themselves.
 Singapore's government
introduced “Stop At Two”—a series
of antinatalist policies to
encourage higher fertility in 1972.

Case Study Made contraceptives available at a

#3 Singapore low cost.

Antinatalist
Legalised abortions and
& Pronatalist sterilisation in certain
circumstances.

Created family planning clinics to

help make advice more available.
 Publicised through the media the
advantages of having a smaller

Case Study family.

#3 Singapore
Introduced financial incentives for
Antinatalist smaller families (such as free
& Pronatalist education and health care
benefits). The financial support
stopped with larger families.
 The impact of the policy:
The fertility rate dropped to 1.2
in 2011 well below

Case Study replacement.

#3 Singapore
Job vacancies were not being
Antinatalist filled, 40% of the workforce was
& Pronatalist filled by migrants (this is not
sustainable as migrant work can
be unreliable as you do not know
how long they want to stay for).
 Singapore had an ageing
population which put pressure

Case Study on health services and pension

payouts.
#3 Singapore
Antinatalist The birth rate fell because of
& Pronatalist factors not directly because of
the policy (increasing
development of Singapore).
 As a result of the decline in the
Case Study birth rate, in 1984 the Singapore
#3 Singapore government started to reverse the

Antinatalist anti-natalist policy. In 1987 some

pro-natalist policies were
& Pronatalist
introduced.
 The phrase "have three or more
children if you can afford it" was
promoted by the government.

Financial benefits were given to

Case Study encourage female graduates to
#3 Singapore have more than three children.

Antinatalist
A baby bonus scheme was
& Pronatalist
introduced which gave cash to new
mothers.
Singapore has also recently
introduced carer's leave for
fathers.
 Other attempts to increase the
birth rate have been to send out

Case Study Valentine cards encouraging

people to "make love, not money".
#3 Singapore
Antinatalist They also arrange weekend cruises
& Pronatalist to help match-make potential
couples. These schemes have yet
to be proved successful.
 Successes

Case Study There was a slight increase in

total fertility after the
#3 Singapore measures were introduced.
Antinatalist The proportion of foreign
& Pronatalist residents in Singapore has
reduced.
 Limitations

Financial incentives were not

Case Study sufficient in changing people's
#3 Singapore attitudes to family size. Many

Antinatalist young women are career-

focused and choose to not have
& Pronatalist
children.
Increases in fertility levels
have been short-lived.
 Some people saw government
measures as "controlling" and
oppressive.
Measures were not always

Case Study supported by businesses who

could not afford to have absent
#3 Singapore employees through maternity
Antinatalist leave.
& Pronatalist Many argue that in a broadly
democratic HIC, it is
impossible for the government
to have a strong influence on
personal decisions.
Demographic
Transition
Model (DTM)
Populations are very dynamic in time
and space. The DTM was developed to
demonstrate population changes with
economic development. The model was
based on experiences of MEDCs during
industrialization and applied to these
countries as a group. The original model
proposed four stages in the transition.
At what stage of the model would most countries of the
Caribbean be placed?
The Stages
Stage 1: High fluctuating (pre-modern)

Stage 2: Early expanding (urbanizing,

industrializing)

Stage 3: Late expanding (mature industrial)

Stage 4: Low fluctuating (post-industrial)

A fifth stage has been added to take account of

developments in countries where fertility is at the
replacement level.
Applicability of
the DTM
The DTM is very easily applied to MEDCs.
Generally, they experienced the changes in birth
and death rates proposed by the model as they
industrialized their economies. It, therefore shows
it best fits with the industrialized nations of
Europe and North America.

Why?

Similar cultural norms and the improved status of

women in the 20th century in these areas.
Applicability of
the DTM
The model does not accurately map the stages of
population change for LEDCs because of the
economic conditions that caused these countries
to struggle to industrialize in the late 20th and 21st
centuries. Many LEDCs experience more rapid
population change with death rates falling sharply.
Applicability of
the DTM
They have also experienced higher maximum rates
of growth. There is also a larger gap between
falling death and falling birth rates compared to
MEDCs. Fertility changes require changes of
behaviour that sometimes conflict with cultural
values.
Limitations of the
DTM
No account of how countries affect each other
(wars)
The model can be wrong in some cases where
some countries may skip stages. For example,
many LEDCs may skip stage three where their
populations continue to increase without a
decrease in birth rates.
No specific time scale is given for each stage.
Some countries will remain in certain stages
for a significant period.
Limitations of the
DTM
No figures are given for each stage and
population numbers can be very varied in
different countries making it hard to predict
changes.
Reasons are not always provided for declines
in BR and DR.
Not all countries remain in stage 4. Italy, Japan
and Germany have all entered stage 5 with
declining populations.
Limitations of the
DTM
Does not account for migration and therefore
cannot illustrate the changes to the population
as a result of immigration or emigration which
can affect population growth significantly.
SUMMARY Population change is significant over time and space.
Populations grow or decline by natural increase and net migration.
RECAP The rate of natural increase is influenced by population structure as well as social
and economic factors.
The Demographic Transition Model
can be applied to analyze
population change with economic
development.
Calculations of population growth
help to express these changes.
Some countries strive to reduce
their populations while others seek
to increase them.
Review

1. Describe the main characteristics of

Stage 4 of the DTM.
2. Define the term 'natural increase'.
3. Explain the term 'fertility rate