El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

 Is a climatic phenomenon characterized mainly by cyclic fluctuation of warm and cold sea Surface temperaturas and
atmospheric pressure in the central and Eastern equatorial pacific
 Causes extreme regional-scale weather climate pattern changes

El Niño

 A prolonged warming of sea Surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific and the Eastern equatorial Pacific.
 Usually lasts for 9 months up to 2 years

Cause of El Niño

 Wind is usually blown to the west along the equator in the pacific region which cuases the pilling of wáter that can reach up
to half meter in the western Pacific
 In the Eastern portion of the Pacific, upwelled, deeper, and colder wáter replaces the insolated Surface wáter that has been
pushed west.
 In effect, warmer waters are concentrated in the wedt and colder Waters are left in the east.

Ef f e c t s O f E l N i ñ o

 The weak easterly trade allow warm to accumulate in the Eastern Pacific. This result in enhanced rainfall in the Eastern
Pacific and reduced rainfall in the western Pacific.
 In the Philippines El Nino can bring about dry spells or droughts,weaker monsoon activity, delayed beginning and premature
end of rainy seasons- and suppressed tropical cyclone activity
 If an area that has been receiving below normal amount of rainfall for a period of three months is considered under dry spell,
 While an área receiving below normal amount of rainfall for a period of five months is already experiencing drought.

E f f e c t s O f E l N i ñ o

Effects On domestic wáter supply, irrigation, and electricity generation

1. Persistent low amount of rainfall

2. Drastic lowering of water levels in reservoirs
a. Reduced irrigation water supply
b. Weak water distribution
c. Reduced electricity generated by hydropower plants

Agri c u l t u r a l e f f e c t s

 Because of drastic reduction in irrigation wáter supply, farmlands yielding staple food crops sustain great losses in harvest.
 Drought may also bring about death among livestock due to heat stress and outbreaks of pests and diseases that damage crops

Marine ecosystem effects

 Massive coral bleaching may, but not always, result from elevated sea Surface

Capture fishery

 Capture fishery and aquaculture are also greatly affected by the conditions brought about by an El Nino

Other environmental effects

1. LAND DEGRADATION

 Land degradation. Land is very vulnerable to degradation in times of dry spells or drought caused by El Nino.

 Land can be degraded to desert like conditions, where inhabitaion flora and fauna and Surface and groundwáter can
potentially be largely impacted.

2. WATER QUALITY DETERIORATION

3. FOREST WILDFIRES

 During El Nino, where a significant amount of vegetation has dried out, forests in the philippines become more prone to
wildfires.

4. LAND SUBSIDENCE

 Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth's surface owing to subsurface movement of earth
materials.

5. DIRECT ECONOMIC AND SOCIETAL EFFECT

 Decline in productivity of the agricultural sectorresults in los of livelihood and a tendency for massivemigration of families to
urban communities in search of work

Typical El Nino Effects: June Through August

La Nina

 Spanish for “the girl”, on the other hand, is the exact opposite of El Nino.
 It involves prolonged unusual cooling (of at least 0.5 °C) of sea surface temperatures in central and eastern equatorial

Cause of La Nina:

 A La Nina is caused by the strengthening of the easterly trade winds which blows more warm water toward the west
 allows the upwelling of cold water in the east (near west coast of South America).

EffectsOfLa NIna

In the Philippines:
  La Nina causes near normal to above normal rainfall conditions, particularly over the eastern sector of the county.
 There is also an observed increase in the number of tropical cyclones that enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
as tropical cyclone formation shift toward the western Pacific Ocean.

DIsasters

 Preparedness measures for disasters associated with wetter conditions brought by La Nina are discussed in separate chapters
on tropical cyclones, storm surges, thunderstorms, and flooding.

HealthProb l e m s

According to DOH, examples of common health problems that arise dung La Nina are:

a) Diseases due to flood-contaminated water such as acute gastroenteritis, cholera, hepatitis A, and typhoid fever.
b) Leptospirosis, which is related to striding in flooded areas contaminated by urine and infected animals, like rats.
c) dengue and malaria, due to the proliferation of mosquitoes; and
d) injuries and accidents like contusions, lacerations, fractures (usually because of flying objects due to strong winds) ad
electrocution by livewires submerged in flood waters.

Typical La Nina Effects: December Through February

Typical La Nina Effects: December Through February

Southern Oscillation

 Southern Oscillation is the term that Sir Gilbert Walker gave for the see-saw shift the observed in the atmospheric pressure
between the eastern and western tropical Pacific that accompanies both El Nino and La Nina episodes in the ocean. He
 observed that during periods of reduced rainfall in the west Pacific (El Nino), escalation of pressure in the west usually
accompanied by lowering of pressure in the east Pacific.

El Nino or La Nina Monitoring in the Philippines

 PAGASA defines and detects El Nino or La Nina phenomena based on SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) and SSTA (Sea
Surface Temperature Anomaly) indicators.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

The Southern Oscillation Index, which is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin (T-D), indicates
whether an El Nino or La Nina events will take place in the Pacific Ocean. An El Nino is described (and detected) by negative
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values—meaning there is below normal pressure in the western tropical Pacific (Papeete, Tahiti) and
above normal pressure in the western tropical Pacific (Darwin, Australia). On the other hand, a La Nina is descrbed by positive
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values—meaning there is a bigger pressure gradient between the east and the west.

PAGASA’s categories of ENSO events based on SST anomalies are the following:

A) Weak El Nino/La Nina – deviation in sea surface temperature by +0.5 to +1.0°C for an El Nino or -0.5 to -1.0°C for a La
Nina.

B) Moderate El Nino/La Nina – deviation in sea surface temperature by +1.0 to +1.5°C for an El Nino or -1.0 to -1.5°C for
La Nina.

C) Strong El Nino/La Nina – deviation in sea surface temperature by more than +1.5°C for an El Nino or less than -1.5°C for
a La Nina.

Recurrence of El Nino and La Nina

El Nino and La Nina occur alternatingly and usually recur every 3-5 years but can range from 2 to 7 years. El Nino and La Nina both
usually develop during March-June, reach maximum intensity during December-April, and eventually weaken during May-July.

ENSO-neutral

An ENSO-neutral is a period when neither an El Nino nor a La Nina occurs. ENSO-neutral periods usually occur during the transition
between El Nino and a La Nina. During an ENSO-neutral, sea surface temperatures (tropical precipitation amount and patterns, and
atmospheric wind patterns in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) are close to the long-term average conditions.

ENSO Event Preparation and Adaptation Strategies

I. Monitoring

Monitoring is of utmost importance in battling the negative effects of an ENSO event. Timely detection of an approaching
extreme climatic event such as El Nino and assessment of its expected attendant whether conditions and effects are essential for
disaster preparedness. Such information is provided by the natural ENSO Early Warning and Monitoring System (NEEWMS) of
PAGASA. Government officials concerned with policymaking, planning and crisis management can make the appropriate decisions.
Likewise, key people in the private sector can take the necessary action to protect their business interest.

II. Adaptation Strategies

During an El Nino, the far-reaching problems encountered mainly involved ensuring water and food security and battling El
Nino impact on the population’s health. During a La Nina, usually geohazards associated with excessive rainfall are highlighted.
However, these are not the only concerns. Food security and health issues are also a major concern. For this reason, we focus our
discussion of adaptation strategies on issues concerning water resources and industries, energy, agriculture, environment, public health
and geohazards.

A. Water management
 • Enforcing stringent water management and conservation measures should be implemented coordination with the NEEWMS
of PAGASA, the National Water Resources Board (NWRB), the National Irrigation Administration (NIA), and the National
Power Coordination (NPC) in an anticipation of possible water shortages during El Nino.

• During the threat of an imminent El Nino event, dams should be closely monitored. In the event that water reaches a critical
level, water distribution companies should be reduced water withdrawal to ensure that the water level of the dam is
maintained and to make sure that the volume of water last the entire period of El Nino. In worst case scenario of potable
water depletion, mobile treatment facilities can be utilized.

B. Agricultural Sector: Farming

Decline in production and shortage of staple food crops can be a major cause of famine, economic loss, and related societal problems.
Utilization of technology, implementation of policies, and observation of appropriate particles are among the several categories of
ENSO adaptation strategies for the farming sector. Strategies mentioned below include those applicable both the farmers and to the
government:

El Nino

1. Monitoring of weather forecasts for scheduling farm activities.

2. Planting varieties of rice (and other food crops for that matter) which are: a) drought-tolerant (thrive despite limited water supply)
and b) early maturing (mature fast enough and can be harvested before drought).
3. Planting more drought-resistant crops such as sweet potato (kamote), cassava (kamoteng kahoy), purple yam (ube), Malabar
spinach (alugbati), mungbean (munggo), and bell pepper.
4. Monitoring and management of drought-induced outbreaks of pests and diseases.
5. Using water-saving technologies, such as controlled irrigation, aerobic rice, drip irrigation, and alternate wetting and drying
(AWD)
6. Employing no-till farming and modified dry-direct seeding methods.
7. Using evaporation suppressants or laying mulch to lessen water loss. Mulch, in addition to conserving soil moisture, can be
moderate the temperature of soil and prevent infestation of weeds.
8. Employing weather-m0dification methods such as cloud seeding to induce rainfall in major watersheds and farmlands.
9. Discovering new water supply sources, maintaining existing irrigation systems, and installing additional irrigation pumps where
needed.
10. Implementing of legislation that support: 1) farming subsides, 2) provision of technology and facilities that will boost agricultural
productivity, and 3) means to guarantee a market for harvest.
11. Government’s entering into import contacts for rice, corn, and other staple food crops in anticipation of shortages in local
production. It is important to note that aside from being a staple food crop, corn is used in making livestock and poultry feeds.
This solution, however, is not a very attractive option should usually be saved for last resort. It is only a “band-aid solution” as it
does not actually help farmers save their livelihood in the long run.

La Nina

1. Planting submergence-tolerant food crops (e.g., rice) varieties.

2. Adjusting the planting calendar such that flowering, grain filling, and harvesting do not fall in period of excessive rainfall and/or
strong winds.
3. Repairing infrastructure like dikes, drainage, and irrigation canals for proper flow of excessive water.
4. Draining excessive water from rice paddies before and after heavy rains.
5. using wind break structures to prevent damage of crops due to strong winds.
6. Using mechanical dryers particularly during periods of around-the-clock rainfall.

C. Health problems

El Nino

To avoid or cope with health threats posed by El Nino, for instance, diarrhea, cholera, skin diseases due to
water-scarcity/shortage, health-related disorders, and paralytic shellfish poisoning, the Department of Health advises to:

1) constantly rehydrate,
 2) conserve household water supply and protect it from contamination,

3) wear light clothing,

4) avoid strenuous physical activity, and 5) listen to updates on shellfish ban.

La Nina

To avoid or cope with health threats posed by La Nina, the Department of Health advises to: boil water intended drinking and even
chlorinate it, if desired; properly wash hands and clean parts of the body that unavoidably come into contact with floodwaters; avoid
striding in flooded areas; and; clean up or dispose of all possible bleeding sites of mosquitoes like old tires, water containers, vases
and etc.

D. Environmental conservation and geohazards

Issues on marine biodiversity (e.g., coral bleaching and deterioration of the capture fishery and aquaculture industry), land
degradation, land subsidence, and shortages on electricity generation by hydroelectric power plants can only be addressed by a
community effort in cooperation with government agencies that have the technical know-how and facilities. Individual can help in
solving these issues, for instance, by reporting any untoward incidents related to either El Nino or La Nina to authorities. Forest fire
prevention measures are addressed in a section on fire hazards.