Professional Documents
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– Baselining Precise Values vs. Ranges vs. Histograms
Extracts and commentary in [brackets] by S. Hunt, 2022‐02‐17
2015, Doyle, Guide to Writing the Geotechnical Baseline Report, 68p
[SH: Doyle 2015 provides the best guidance on baselining data. Baselining single values that are
considered representative may represent a realistic average or mean which is useful to know, but such
values do not generally make defensible baselines. Geologic parameters always have ranges in values.
Small ranges in values can be appropriately baselined with a single value or small range with an average.
However, graphical presentations of the data make better baselines and histograms are often one useful
form of graphical presentation if there is sufficient data – see Doyle’s discussion below on what
constitutes insufficient data and a poor histogram for baselining. Where insufficient data exists or other
data anomalies, histograms may be presented but should not the baseline. Instead, the baseline should
be a discussion citing the min, max, average and standard deviation with commentary on what should
be expected.]
…
Following the material descriptions, present what is known of the physical properties of the geologic
units as determined from field and laboratory testing. Employ graphics such as Atterberg limits charts,
histograms, strength versus depth plots, and the like. A tabulation of physical properties to be
considered as baseline properties for the contractor's use in construction can be presented in this
section.
…
The Gold Book addresses interpretation of test results with the statement: “The recommended
approach is to indicate the expected range of conditions and uncertainty, but then state a specific
baseline (upon which bidders may rely) that has been established for contractual purposes. The baseline
may be expressed as a maximum value, an average value, a histogram distribution of values, or
combinations thereof ” (ASCE 2007, p. 19). The Gold Book approach to setting baselines is intended to
resolve previous problems of vague and overly broad interpretations in geotechnical reports, but its
literal application has revealed a number of pitfalls: [emphasis added]
…
• Histograms accurately represent the sample set, but not necessarily the population. A
histogram developed from another sample set from the same population will almost
certainly appear different. [emphasis added]
…
Histograms as Baselines
2013, Doyle, Guide to Writing the GBR
[SH: Doyle 2013 was superseded by Doyle 2015, but provides good discussion on baselining and use of
graphical presentations instead of a table listing baseline values.]
…
Consider the following general approach to sorting, presenting, and interpreting data:
1. Sort and present data by geologic unit.
2. Disclaim any data points considered to be erroneous and eliminate from further
consideration. State the reason for any disclaimer.
3. Present data in graphical form to portray the number of data points available, and their
distribution across a range of values. Graphic presentations include Atterberg limits
charts, grain size curves, histograms, material property v. depth plots, and material
property correlation plots.
4. Explain or address any anomalies in the data.
5. Index properties presented in graphical form are usually sufficient to accurately
portray the expected range of conditions. The graphic becomes the baseline. Graphics
that fall into this category include Atterberg limits charts, grain size curves, and RQD
histograms.
6. In the usual case the data will indicate a range of conditions. An interpretation of the
expected range can be presented with mathematical certainty by establishing the baseline
as a statistical distribution. Statistical derivation of baselines is described in a following
article. Presenting an interpretation of data in certain terms is an achievable goal;
eliminating uncertainty from the interpretation is not. [emphasis added]
…
If the number of samples tested for a particular random variable are truly representative of the
population, a histogram of test results would be evenly distributed about the mean, as shown in the
figure. However, geotechnical data plotted in a histogram are usually irregularly distributed due to the
low number of data points available, making histograms a poor choice for a baseline for random
variables. [emphasis added] [SH: don’t use histograms when there is insufficient data – baseline the
range: min, max, and average and provide commentary]
Physical properties can be definitively baselined by summarizing test results as a mean (x ̅) and
standard deviation (s). These two parameters define the distribution curve of a normal random
variable. The normal distribution curve is asymptotic along the horizontal axis, so maximum and
minimum values should be set as part of the baseline. Maximum and minimum values set at +2 to ‐2
standard deviations from the mean include approximately 95 percent of a normal distribution, leaving a
2.5 percent probability of encountering properties above the maximum or below the minimum.
Maximum and minimum values set at +3 to ‐3 standard deviations from the mean include approximately
99 percent of a normal distribution; this is recommended where data are few, or where extreme values
may control construction design. The baseline should also include the number of samples tested (n). An
example of baseline rock properties is included in a table in Appendix A. [emphasis added]
2007, UTRC, Essex (ed.), Geotechnical Baseline Reports for Construction [Gold Book]
Ground Characterization
• …
• laboratory and field test results presented in histogram (or some other suitable) format,
grouped according to each pertinent distinguishable rock or soil unit; reference to tabular
summaries contained in the GDR
• ranges and values for baseline purposes; explanations for why the histogram distributions
(or other presentations) should be considered representative of the range of properties to
be encountered, and if not, why not; rationale for selecting the baseline values and ranges
• …
… [emphasis added]
Should baselines be precise values, or can/should they be ranges?
If the variability of a material property or characteristic is legitimately reflected in the range of data, it is
considered appropriate to state: "The available information indicates that item Q will range between X
and Z; and for baseline purposes assume that the average Q = Y". This satisfies the desire and
appropriateness of communicating the uncertainty, while providing a clear contractual baseline. As
addressed in Chapter 6, a histogram presentation of the available data helps to clarify the anticipated
variation in material property or characteristic from the baseline average. [emphasis added]
"Soft" baselines (stated as a range of material properties or characteristics, rather than an average) run
counter to the general proposition that baselines seek to enhance clarity and reduce ambiguity. A
baseline "range" serves neither of the above objectives. Before the development of baselines, only
numerical geotechnical data were provided, and usually in the form of ranges. The concept of stating
baselines as a range is a step backward, not forward. [emphasis added] [SH: histograms are more
informative than a range because the concentration of results is evident] Proponents of baseline ranges
defend it by maintaining that the range represents an "uncertainty zone." While that might be true, the
job of the GBR is to wring the geotechnical ambiguity out of the bidding process, not add to it.
Excessively wide range‐expressions are inconsistent with the overall goal of minimizing disputes. In
reality, the use of ranges in a GBR results in the creation of an unnecessarily wide "battle zone".
Some Owners and GBR authors have expressed a concern about being "wrong" if an average property or
characteristic is presented as a baseline. If an Owner or Owner's representative is concerned that
presenting an average condition as a baseline will lead to a number of minor claims, they have the
latitude to adjust the baseline to represent a more adverse condition, recognizing that in exchange for
the more conservative baseline, they should anticipate higher bids. Adjusting the baseline to a more
conservative value is viewed as a better solution than presenting the baseline as a wide numerical
range.
This said, Owners and Engineers are strongly advised to present reasonable, realistic baselines. Building
in excessive conservatism not only frustrates the purpose and role of the GBR but will inevitably cause
confusion and in the end, may cause the very claims and lawsuits they were trying to prevent.
2012, Smith, The GBR, Bible or Bane, 7p [includes 2 references to papers co‐authored by S. Hunt]
Providing average values can be less than helpful too. Take the strength of a rock type. It could vary by
smallish amounts along the length of the tunnel, in which case the average value might work as a
baseline. But if the variations were much greater, a histogram might be a better way of representing
what the contractor should expect. [emphasis added]
Wrapped up with setting reasonable baselines is the whole question of what constitutes a deviation
from that line. “If you say the tunnel excavation will encounter 40% rock, 60% soil and at the end of the
day its 41% and 59%, that isn’t a differing site condition,” says Essex. “There has to be a material
difference, not just a numerical difference.”
ND2011.51. A Discussion on Geotechnical Baseline Reports and Legal Issues, John
Parnass, Kimberlie Staheli, Steve Hunt, Mark Hutchinson, John Fowler and Leon Maday
…
The authors of this paper, however, do not all fully agree on whether and how to baseline rock strength.
These differences will be aired at the panel discussion. One view is that maximum boulder strengths
should be baselined to help ensure that cutters and rock crushers can handle the expected hard rocks. A
histogram of boulder strengths should be baselined when sufficient data exists and when many
boulders are expected, e.g. for boulder volume ratios over 1% with sufficient tunnel volume to result in
a total number of boulders over 100. Boulder encounter risks should be carefully considered when
determining how boulder strengths should baselined. Where many boulders are expected, sufficient
sampling or data from previous investigations is necessary during the subsurface investigation to
provide enough data for a valid histogram. The contrary view is that while a histogram is a useful
source of data and thus can be included in the GDR, it should not be included in the GBR because it
provides no true single baseline but instead is subject to conflicting interpretations. [SH: despite this
contrary view, experience with DSC claim evaluations, dispute resolution and litigation indicates that
accurate histograms and the most defensible way to baseline a parameter that has a range in values. For
cobbles and boulders, I generally baseline CVR, BVR and either stated baseline quantities for anticipated
size ranges (linked to an assumed tunnel diameter and length) or to a modified histogram such as
included below.]