Wildland Fire Vulnerability in Los Angeles County, CA

Elizabeth Bigham
Department of Geosciences, Williams College
Williamstown, Massachusetts

INTRODUCTION:
California is paradise: the Mediterranean climate keeps the state pleasantly warm year-
round, and the state’s diverse topography allows for all sorts of different activities and lifestyles.
However, in 2018, paradise burned – literally. The Camp Fire in Paradise, CA, was one the most
destructive fires in the history of the United States 1. Fires have become a threatening concern for
Californians, especially as areas become more vulnerable because of climate change. With global
average temperatures on the rise and precipitation patterns highly in flux, it is clear that fire
vulnerability in California is changing. According to NOAA, the state incurred $24.5 billion in
wildfire costs in 2018 alone, a new national record. The losses in the last two years have equaled
nearly $40 billion, an unprecedented level of fire damage 2. The more frequently billion-dollar
fires occur, the more damages the state and federal government will have to pay in order to
recover. California wildfires are costly in terms of lives and livelihoods lost; the long run
damages will only continue to build as fire seasons become progressively worse.
While several California counties are at risk for wildfire, none seem to have a population
as vulnerable as Los Angeles County. The county is the most populated county in the state of
California, and its population is growing 3. Los Angeles, the second largest city by population in
the entire U.S., is housed within LA County. Los Angeles is also one of the most economically
productive cities in the world 4. Its growth of GDP per capita has risen over 30% since 2002,
nearly twice as much as New York City’s growth 5. Urban areas, in Los Angeles County, can
also exacerbate wildfires. When combined with economic and population growth, human
impacts through urbanization can even surpass climatic factors when it comes to fire
vulnerability 6. This makes LA County one of the most at-risk counties in the state. Residents
will need to know if they live in harm’s way, but state and national politicians will need to
decide how to shape policies based on different levels of vulnerability. Important decisions such
as where to build more fire shelters, firefighting facilities, where to invest in fire prevention

1 “MAPS: A look at the Camp Fire in Butte County and other California fires,” ABC7 San Francisco, November 25, 2018, https://abc7news.com/maps-a-look-at-the-
camp-fire-in-butte-county-and-other-california-fires/4656293/
2 “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Table of Events,” NOAA National Centres for Environmental Information, 2019,

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2019
3 Michael Shellenberger, “Why Everything They Say About California Fires — Including That Climate Matters Most — Is Wrong,” Forbes, November 4, 2019,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/04/why-everything-they-say-about-california-fires--including-that-climate-matters-most--is-
wrong/#1d60e9d34cb6
4 Richard Florida, “What is the World’s Most Economically Powerful City?” The Atlantic, May 8, 2012, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/05/what-

is-the-worlds-most-economically-powerful-city/256841/
5 Matthew Winkler, “Los Angeles is Having a Loud Economic Boom,” Bloomberg, Opinion, April 5, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-

05/los-angeles-economic-boom-outpaces-u-s-cities
6 Michael Shellenberger, “Why Everything They Say About California Fires — Including That Climate Matters Most — Is Wrong,” Forbes, November 4, 2019,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/04/why-everything-they-say-about-california-fires--including-that-climate-matters-most--is-
wrong/#1d60e9d34cb6

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projects and more, will have to be made based on current vulnerability and the spread of
population. Therefore, it is essential to identify most vulnerable areas in LA County for public
and government awareness and for decision making.
There are a variety of factors that can change fire vulnerability, including temperature,
moisture levels, soil, water availability and more 7. “Vegetation gradients” can determine which
areas are more susceptible to wildfires than others 8. Temperature, precipitation and vegetation
play an intricate role in fire vulnerability. Drought, a common phenomenon that is a result of
temperature and precipitation changes and affects dryness of vegetation, should also be
examined: Forest fire frequency and the size of these fires is increasing as droughts worsen with
the onset of climate change 9. Long-term drought can also influence vegetative fuels, another
long-term driver of wildland fires 10. Another type of commonly cited fuel is wind; the patterns
and direction of wind in relation to topography influences how wildfires spread 11.
Understanding of how wind and topography interact is crucial to understanding vulnerability.
According to the National Park Service, vegetation and topography also influence one another in
a way that can make fires more dangerous or move in patterns 12. Finally, the U.S. National Park
Service sites lightening as one of the two natural causes of wildland fires 13; lightening
distribution is another important factor in determining vulnerability in LA County. Therefore, a
climate-based wildland fire vulnerability index map has to be established in order to determine
what areas and subpopulations of LA County are at risk. Even wildland fires in low-density
population areas are still likely to impact the county’s economic growth; wildfires will continue
to become more destructive and costly as the county’s population and economy grow 14. Citizens
and politicians alike must know how fires affect their homes, livelihoods, and more. Knowing
which areas are vulnerable may help politicians understand the future damages that will impact
LA County.

METHODOLOGY:
In order to determine fire vulnerability index in LA County is, 6 factors were examined:
temperature, precipitation, lightening density, wind, fuel rank, and topography layered with land
cover. Certain decisions were made when I began to work with wind as my first factor, which
could have influenced other factors in the project. However, I decided to work with wind first,
because it is a powerful wildfire driver 15. I noted the cell size of the corresponding raster that
came with the shapefile in a package. I decided that this would be a good cell size to stick with,

7 A.L. Westerling and B.P. Bryant, “Climate change and wildfire in California,” Springer – Climatic Change Volume 87, Supplement 1 (2008):
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-007-9363-z
8 Park A. Williams et. al., “Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California,” Wiley – Earth’s Future Volume 7, Issue 8 (2019):

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001210.
9 Jeremy S. Littell, et. al., “A review of the relationships between drought and forest fires in the United States,” Global Change Biology, (2016):

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.13275
10 Ibid
11 Tom Beer, “The Interaction of Wind and Fire,” Bushfire Research Program, (1990): https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2FBF00183958.pdf

12 C. Boehle, “Wildfire Causes and Evaluations,” National Park Service, February 16, 2017, https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildland-fire-behavior.htm

13 “Wildfire Causes and Evaluations,” National Park Service, November 27, 2018, https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildfire-causes-and-evaluation.htm

14 A.L. Westerling, et. al., “Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire,” Springer – Climatic Change Volume 109, Supplement 1 (2011):

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9
15 Tom Beer, “The Interaction of Wind and Fire,” Bushfire Research Program, (1990): https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2FBF00183958.pdf

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as the data came in this size. I trusted that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the
contact organization for the dataset, had thought extensively about the resolution, and stuck with
the cell size for the duration of the project. A cell sized 510 is about 2 km2 in area, about four
times the size of the average residential neighborhood 16. I found that this cell size worked for
my data, because it did not encompass too many different land types to yield inconclusive or
inaccurate data. With more time, I would have liked to experiment with resolution to determine
the best size for my project, rather than just relying on the opinion of a national laboratory.
I also had to determine what type of data time frame I would be working with. While
some data was aggregated, some was not. For temperature and precipitation, I decided to use the
30-year normal for October 1981 through 2010 by the Prism Climate group at OSU 17. I decided
to use an aggregated map for a few different reasons: first, droughts, which can help spread
wildfires as it dries out vegetation, are a result of drier-and-hotter-than-normal conditions over a
period of time; drought does not occur after one year, or even a few months 18. Drought results
from a combination of factors over time. Second, I used an aggregate map of October because
that month has seen some of the most destructive fires in state history 19. The month experiences
Santa Ana winds, powerful gusts of air that blow warm, dry air into LA County, as well as the
state as a whole. This, when combined with dry vegetation from the summer months, makes
October’s conditions ripe for massive wildland fires. Lightning data was also aggregated, as it is
senseless to base predictions on where lightening will start fires in any given year: patterns over
time give a much better sense of what areas are in danger of lightning-started fires. Wind is also
aggregated for the same reasons I chose to work with aggregated lightning data: wind changes in
any given year. Aggregated data provides patterns that more realistically explain what areas are
in danger of wind-fueled fires. Finally, fuel rank and elevation combined with land cover are not
aggregated. I preferred to have reliable fuel rank data over an aggregated dataset. For elevation
and land cover, elevation does not change much over a human lifetime, and with more time, it
would have been interesting to see how land is used differently over time. Land cover over time
could give some insight into what type of former landscapes are prone to wildfires, which can
drive decisions by policymakers, home buyers, developers and more. With more time, I would
like to explore the in-depth relationship between land cover and wildland fires.
For wind data, I used a dataset called California Wind Power Density (W/m2) at 50
Meters Above Ground Level from TrueWind Solutions/NREL 20. While the main use of wind
maps such as these is for wind farms, they also give an excellent indication of wind patterns on
the ground. First, I opened the shapefile in ArcGIS. I set my workplace to State Plane California
V FIPS 0405 (US feet), which I used for the rest of the project. Initially, I was hoping to use

16 Jerrold R. Allarie, “Neighbourhood Boundaries,” American Society of Planning Officials, 1960, https://www.planning.org/pas/reports/report141.htm
17 30-yr Normal Precipitation: October – Period: 1981-2010 [web map]. Prism Climate Group. Prism-
questions@nacse.org.http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/normals/. [08 December 2019].
18 E.L. Tate and A. Gustard, “Drought Definition: A Hydrological Perspective,” Springer –Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research Volume 14,

(2000): https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-015-9472-1_3
19 Tara Law and Jennifer Calfas “Here’s Why October Is California’s Most Dangerous Month for Wildfires,” Time, October 28, 2019,

https://time.com/4975818/california-fires-october/
20 California Wind Power Density (W/m2) at 50 Meters Above Ground Level (2011). [feature layer]. TrueWind Solutions/NREL. donna_heimiller@nrel.gov.

https://databasin.org/datasets/ad5e23399af5428ea52cf53738cb3ec4. [08 December 2019].

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State Plane California VI FIPS 0405 (US feet), but as ArcGIS did not have this coordinate
system, I decided to use the next best coordinate system. State Plane California V FIPS 0405 (US
feet) would have captured LA County horizontally if the county did not have its own system.
After, I clipped the shapefile to LA County: it was easier to work with the shapefile initially
because for unknown reasons, the raster displaying the same data did not like being clipped to
Los Angeles County. After clipping, I converted the shapefile to a raster, displaying wind class
ranked on a scale of 1-7 (1 = least wind, 7 = most wind).s
I followed the same steps for temperature, precipitation, fuel rank and lightening density.
For these factors, however, one step is critically different: I did not find datasets that maintained
the level of data consistency or accuracy that I wanted for this project. Instead, I georeferenced,
then created shapefiles for a series of maps, which has some benefits and some drawbacks. One
benefit is that I can generalize shapes in order to “smooth” the data visually rather than having
chunky cells. The drawback of this is that my generalizing leaves out some information while
including data that should not be there. The other drawback is that if the map did not fit the LA
County shapefile perfectly, data could be skewed. Ultimately, I decided to georeference my
maps; inconsistent or unreliable datasets could skew my project just as much, if not more. First, I
added the image containing the map and the pre-existing LA County shapefile, which was set in
State Plane California V FIPS 0405 (US feet). I rectified the image in order to preserve the new
coordinate system. Next, I created shapefile by exporting data from LA County shapefile. I
edited features to encompass areas of different values and labeled each with the corresponding
measurement as listed in the key for the georeferenced map. Next, I converted my newly created
polygons to a raster by listing the measurement as the value. After confirming the 510 cell size, I
reclassified the factors on a numeric scale starting with 1, which I later used to find to add raster
to find the most vulnerable areas in LA County.
Finally, I combined elevation with landcover. First, I added the ESRI topo 30m to the
map. I clipped the map to LA County. Then, I performed a slope function in order to determine
how steep slopes were, which was classified in 5 groups with natural breaks (Jenks). After, I
resampled to 510, as the raster came with a cell size of 30 x 30. Next, I added World Land Cover
ESA to the map. I clipped the raster to LA county. After, I edited the table by adding a burn rank
based on data from the Missolua Fire Science Laboratory 21. I then multiplied the two rasters
together, but I decided to weight landcover more, because fires are fueled much more by
vegetation as opposed to elevation: a dry grassland that is flat burns much more rapidly than a
steep hill with little vegetation. After, I reclassified this newly multiplied factor by its burnability
combined with slope (1-8: 1 = not burnable material plus not steep). A full review of each data
source can be found in Figure 1.
Finally, I added all my factors together with equal weighting. With more time, I would
have liked to determine a more precise weighting, but with the time constrains of the class, I
decided it was better to not weight at all than to falsely weight, hence skewing conclusions. I

Gloria Dickie, “Plants that burn fastest in a wildfire,” High Country News, August 3, 2015, https://www.hcn.org/issues/47.13/after-a-record-setting-wildfire-a-
21

washington-county-prepares-for-the-next-one/plants-that-burn-fastest-in-a-wildfire

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then broke up the resulting added values into 4 groups using Jenks natural breaks, from least
vulnerable to most vulnerable. I changed the color scale to yellow-to-brown, as brown is often
the color of burned areas. I added the other surrounding counties to remind the reader that fires in
LA County are not necessarily restricted to LA County: fires do not contain themselves to
boundary lines, and thus it is important to include surrounding areas. Finally, I added a legend,
title, scale, compass, and turned the background blue to indicate the proximity of the western
edge of LA County to the ocean. The final map is seen in Figure 2.
Many of the reasons I chose to use these factors is due to the information I collected in
my literature review. However, one variable that I used that was not specifically mentioned was
fuel rank. I decided to use fuel rank specifically, as it provided a map with greater vegetative
detail as compared to my final factor, elevation combined with landcover. The Cal Fire Frap Fuel
Rank map provided a detailed explanation of how they determined fuel rank, which helped me
determine that doing a separate ranking of just general land cover combined with elevation
would capture a broader picture of the relationship between slope and vegetation.
After completing my initial climatic map, I decided to see which populations by census
tract were the most vulnerable in LA County because of readily available and reliable census
data. Second, LA County city boundaries do not cover the entirety of the county: certain areas,
landscapes that might be highly vulnerable, would have been left out. While I realize that this
statement alone sounds biased, I think it was more important to include every area of LA
County: a fire that starts in a small-population census tract can easily spread to a large-
population census tract. It is essential to know where fires start everywhere in the county. I made
a raster by 2017 population and reclassified by Jenks natural breaks. I then converted my final
vulnerability map to points and did a spatial join points with LA County census tracts. This
allowed me to determine the average vulnerability in each census tract. I also compared
population size with vulnerability index. I reclassified both the vulnerability map and population
groups based on Jenks natural to fit a numeric scale numeric scale (1-4 for vulnerability, 1-5 for
population). I then added these two together to determine which areas were highly vulnerable to
wildland fire but also had large populations. Figures 3 and 4 display this information. Finally, I
also did additional analysis on fire prevention projects, as well as the spread of Cal Fire fighting
facilities, urban areas, and control projects, and how these spatially related to cities, census
tracts, and roads. Figures 5 through 10 display the analysis done on these additional data points.
With more time, I would have liked to have done more demographic analysis: who are the most
vulnerable populations, and do they also belong to underserved communities? Where are these
communities in relation to facilities like Cal Fire Fighting facilities, roads, fire shelters and
more? It is not only important to show which populations are vulnerable, but which are the most
vulnerable as underserved citizens of LA County.

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Factor Source Source website Time Frame Method Reclassification Measured
ranking in
Wind TrueWind https://databasin.org/ Updated in Shapefile was provided 1 = least windy Wind
Solutions/NREL datasets/ad5e23399af 2009; aggregate in package, converted to through resource
5428ea52cf53738cb3 raster, reclassified 7 = most windy potential
ec4 Predetermined by data

Precipitation PRISM Climate http://www.prism.ore 1981 – 2010 for Georeferenced image, 1 = 0.3, Annual
Group, OSU gonstate.edu/normals the month of creating features, 2 = 0.5, precipitatio
/ October; shapefile to raster, 3 = 0.7, n (in.)
aggregate reclassified 4 = 1.0,
5 = 1.4,
6 = 2.2
Predetermined by data
Temperature PRISM Climate http://www.prism.ore 1981 – 2010 for Georeferenced image, 1 = 52, 2 = 55, Temperatur
Group, OSU gonstate.edu/normals the month of creating features, 3 = 59, 4 = 62, e (oF)
/ October; shapefile to raster, 5 = 66, 6 = 70
aggregate reclassified Predetermined by data
Lightning VAISALA; https://www.vaisala.c 2008-2017; Georeferenced image, 1 = 0-0.75, Flashes/sq
Density National om/en/products/data- aggregate creating features, 2 = 0.75-1.5, mi/year
Lightning subscriptions-and- shapefile to raster, 3 = 1.5-3
Detection reports/data-sets/nldn reclassified Predetermined by data
Network
Fuel Rank State of https://frap.fire.ca.go Updated in 2005 Georeferenced image, 1 = non-wildland fuel, (qualitative)
California; Cal v/media/2446/fuel- creating features, 2 = moderate,
Fire FRAP rank-map.pdf shapefile to raster, 3 = high,
reclassified 4 = very high
Predetermined by data
Elevation and ESRI Elevation: Elevation: Elevation: performed Elevation:
Land Cover https://ephs.maps.arc updated in 2019 slope function, Jenks breaks on a
ESA (Land Cover gis.com/home/item.ht resampled. classified scale (1-5)
only) ml?id=0383ba189061 Land Cover:
49e3bd2a0975a0afdb 2010 Land Cover: Land Cover:
8e 0 = not going to burn
1 = unlikely to burn
Land Cover: 2 = can burn
https://ephs.maps.arc 3 = likely to burn
gis.com/home/item.ht 4 = very likely to burn
ml?id=e8c1bcf3a9ca
4e2e9e14d94daa442b
6a

Figure 1. Comprehensive review of each factor used, including source, time frame, method used
to extract data, reclassification rankings, units of measurement and source website.

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RESULTS

Figure 2. Wildland Fire Vulnerability Index - Los Angeles County, CA – October: Ranked on a
scale from least vulnerable to most vulnerable, this map displays the places within Los Angeles
County that are most threatened by wildland fires. The darker areas represent places that are
most vulnerable, while lighter areas are less so. This map was made for October because of
prevalence of fires within the month. Other counties are shown in proximity, as wildland fires
are not necessarily contained to one county. A north arrow and scale bar have been added to give
the viewer an orientation of the map.

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Figure 2. Wildland Fire Vulnerability Index by Census Tract – Los Angeles County, CA –
October: Ranked on a scale from least vulnerable to most vulnerable, this map displays the
census tracts within Los Angeles County that are most threatened by wildland fires. The darker
areas represent places that are most vulnerable, while lighter areas are less so. Other counties are
shown in proximity, as wildland fires are not necessarily contained to one county. A north arrow
and scale bar have been added to give the viewer an orientation of the map.

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Figure 4. Most Vulnerable Populations by Census Tract - Los Angeles County, CA: Ranked on a
scale from least vulnerable to most vulnerable, this map displays the census tracts within Los
Angeles County that are most threatened by wildland fires combined with population. The darker
areas represent populations that are most vulnerable, while lighter areas are less so. Other
counties are shown in proximity, as wildland fires are not necessarily contained to one county. A
north arrow and scale bar have been added to give the viewer an orientation of the map. I used
red as a color scheme because it suggests a sense of urgency in the matter, as red is used for
hazard zones.

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Figure 5. Distance to CAL FIRE Fighting Facilities by Census Tract – Los Angeles County, CA:
Ranked on a scale from less than 1.5 miles to over 7.5 miles, this map displays how far away
census tracts in LA County are from Cal Fire fighting facilities. The darker areas represent
census tracts that are farthest from facilities, while lighter areas are closer. This information is
important because residents need to know if they are nearby facilities that will fight fires if one
breaks out. Politicians need to know what areas are in need of facilities, especially those that are
highly vulnerable, information that can be obtained through prior maps. It should be noted,
however, that certain census tracts are large: while some areas of the same tract are close to Cal
Fire fighting facilities, other areas can be much farther away, and thus more vulnerable because
of lack of fire prevention facilities. A spatial join between the facilities points and census tracts
was done specifically for this map. Other counties are shown in proximity, as wildland fires are
not necessarily contained to one county. A north arrow and scale bar have been added to give the
viewer an orientation of the map. I used red as a color scheme because it suggests a sense of
urgency in the matter. Red is the color of fire trucks, often seen at fire stations, and thus the color
scheme between the dark red dots and lighter red tracts is visually pleasing and fits with the data
being displayed.

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Figure 6. Major Cities and Vulnerability Index - Los Angeles County, CA – October: Ranked on
a scale from least vulnerable to most vulnerable, this map displays the places within Los Angeles
County that are most threatened by wildland fires. It also displays where major cities with
populations over 100,000 are in relation to these areas. This is important information because
cities are often economic and population centers: understanding vulnerability in relation to these
cities can help policy makers appropriately divide resources so that highly vulnerable cities are
prepared for wildland fires. I also decided to display cities against the first vulnerability map
rather than a census tract map in order to prevent displaying the same information twice (census
tracts based are based on population, and thus the information would be double counted). The
darker areas represent areas that are most vulnerable, while lighter areas are less so. This map
was made for October because of prevalence of fires within the month. Other counties are shown
in proximity, as wildland fires are not necessarily contained to one county. A north arrow and
scale bar have been added to give the viewer an orientation of the map.

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Figure 7. Urban Areas and Wildland Fire Vulnerability Index - Los Angeles County, CA –
October: Ranked on a scale from least vulnerable to most vulnerable, this map displays the
places within Los Angeles County that are most threatened by wildland fires. It also displays
where urban areas are in relation to vulnerable areas. This data is important information because
urban areas are generalized economic and population centers: understanding vulnerability in
relation to urban areas can help policy makers appropriately divide resources so that urban areas
in close proximity to highly vulnerable wildlands are prepared for fires. I also decided to display
urban areas against a census tract map rather than the original vulnerability map because urban
area boundaries do not indicate how populated the areas are. I think it is important to display this
information: human causes also influence where fires start, and it is imperative to know if a
human caused fire will spread to nearby vulnerable areas or wildlands. The darker areas
represent areas that are most vulnerable, while lighter areas are less so. Other counties are shown
in proximity, as wildland fires are not necessarily contained to one county. A north arrow and
scale bar have been added to give the viewer an orientation of the map.

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Figure 8. Urban Areas, Wildland Fire Vulnerability Index and Cal Fire Fighting Facilities - Los
Angeles County, CA – Octobers: Ranked on a scale from least vulnerable to most vulnerable,
this map displays the places within Los Angeles County that are most threatened by wildland
fires. This map combines Figures 7 and 5 in order to show where facilities are in relation to
urban areas. The darker areas represent areas that are most vulnerable, while lighter areas are less
so. Other counties are shown in proximity, as wildland fires are not necessarily contained to one
county. A north arrow and scale bar have been added to give the viewer an orientation of the
map.

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Figure 9. Census Tracts with Past or Current Cal Fire Prevention and Control Projects – Los
Angeles County, CA. Ranked as a Boolean raster showing the presence of projects in red and the
lack of prevention as clear, this map displays which census tracts are currently or have in the past
had fire prevention projects. This information is important because residents need to know if the
state has taken any active measures to prevent wildland fires in their census tract. Politicians
need to know what areas are in need of fire prevention and control projects, especially those that
are highly vulnerable, information that can be obtained in Figure 10. It should be noted,
however, that certain census tracts are large: just because one area of the census tract has had a
prevention or control project does not mean that the entire tract is less vulnerable. Other counties
are shown in proximity, as wildland fires are not necessarily contained to one county. A north
arrow and scale bar have been added to give the viewer an orientation of the map. With more
time, a Euclidian distance analysis may have served to given more accurate spatial information.

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Figure 10. Census Tracts with Past or Current Cal Fire Prevention and Control Projects
Compared to Vulnerability Index – Los Angeles County, CA. This map is an overlay of
vulnerability by census tract and presence of project. Ranked with Boolean raster showing the
presence of projects in red and the lack of prevention as clear and level of vulnerably, this map
displays which census tracts are currently or have in the past had fire prevention projects, as well
as their vulnerability level. This information is important because residents need to know if the
state has taken any active measures to prevent wildland fires in their census tract and can
pressure their governments to take action particularly if they are in a highly vulnerable area.
Politicians need to know what areas are in need of fire prevention and control projects, especially
those that are highly vulnerable. It should be noted, however, that certain census tracts are large:
just because one area of the census tract has had a prevention or control project does not mean
that the entire tract is less vulnerable. Darker red indicates a control and prevention project doe
in a highly vulnerable area. Other counties are shown in proximity, as wildland fires are not
necessarily contained to one county. A north arrow and scale bar have been added to give the
viewer an orientation of the map. With more time, a Euclidian distance analysis may have served
to given more accurate spatial information.

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DISCUSSION: (not included in word count) challenges and lessons, what I would have done
differently
Throughout the entire semester, I faced a number of challenges, from computers not
wanting to cooperate, to simply feeling stuck with a problem until I asked for help. This project
truly embodies the knowledge I have gained in ArcGIS this semester: I have used everything I
know to make the best possible maps. While a daunting task, mapping wildland fire vulnerability
in LA County is just as much as personal project as it is an educational one. I have family and
friends who live in the path of wildfires and having a personal understanding of how vulnerable
they are makes me more aware of the circumstances likely to affect them. This sentiment,
however, gives a clear view into potential bias on my part: as I am from the region, it could
easily appear that I have a stake in the results of the analysis. However, I am confident that I
looked at all of the factors unbiasedly and was able to draw impartial conclusions from the data.
One of the biggest challenges that I faced this semester was how to make sure I was
being as impartial as possible when making maps and selecting data. I feel as though I usually
have impressions of a subject before pursuing it, and I was reminded constantly by the GIS
textbook and map making book that I need to look at everything with a critical but fair eye. I
learned to be critical of even the smallest details, something that I think the Making Maps book
did a fabulous job of. I felt challenged to think of every single element in a map, and while I feel
like that did occasionally hold me back (I spent a lot of time on small but important details such
as legends, colors of features, tiny curves when creating features, etc.) I felt as though I knew
how to judge maps for myself by the end of the course. I also had some initial challenges with
detail in my project. I had a hard time changing around the resolution, but I think was ultimately
more of a computer issue. Each detail on a map is subjective, making the task quite hard: there
are so many visual ways to skew data. Avoiding bias of any kind, therefore, was definitely a
challenge for me this semester.
Another challenge I faced with this project was simply knowing how and where to start,
and what commands to use to produce a certain result. While I definitely feel as though I gained
a whole set of tools, I learned quickly that there can be multiple paths to the same end result and
choosing any one path over another has benefits and drawbacks. For my project specifically, I
could have georeferenced, then classified all of my maps by using a supervised classification.
This would have likely produced a “chunkier” raster, but perhaps the results would have been
more accurate. Doing this would have also saved me time: I wouldn’t have had to create so many
different features, label them, convert them into rasters, reclassify, and on. However, I decided in
the end after attempting to classify my precipitation map, that drawing features helped me
become familiar with the data in a much more visual way. Rather than relying on the computer to
make assumptions for me by creating a raster based on my recommendations (training samples),
I understood the patterns of each feature I was creating. When I added all of my factors together,
I understood why the pattern emerged the way it did because I had studied each factor in such a
visual way.

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 If I had another six months to complete my project, I would do a number of things. First,
I would do a more in depth literature review. Because I was unsure of the scope of my project
and because wildfires are such a complex phenomenon, I felt a little lost in the beginning. I was
unsure of what I was even looking for when it came to factors. Initially, I focused too much on
vegetation, which ended up confusing me more because of how complex fuel rank, land cover
and elevation are when it comes to wildfires. I also realized too late that I was relying on older
literature to determine my factors. While some of my data was from the late 2010s (2019 even)
my oldest source was from 1990. This leaves a lot of time for the science of wildland fires to
evolve. I would like to spend more time looking for those if I were to do this again.
Next, I would have loved to do demographic analysis. While it is important to know
which populations are at risk of wildland fires, general population statistics do not explain
whether or not those in vulnerable tracts have the means to escape wildland fires. Low-income
communities might not have the means to pick back up somewhere else if there home burns
down in a fire. Children and elderly individuals often have respiratory problems related to ash
and smoke from fires. There is a lot of important analysis to be done in terms of demographics,
which will give politicians even more information about how to equitably distribute resources
related to wildland fires. Finally, I would like map vulnerability for the entire state of California.
Los Angeles, while incredibly important to the state and particularly vulnerable, is only one
county in California. Numerous other counties have horrible fires in any given year, and while
they may not have the same economic or population stakes as LA County, those fires are just as
detrimental and expensive as fires in Los Angeles County.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Special thanks to Alex Apotsos and Devon Parfait for their patience with me and all of the help
they’ve given me this semester. Another special thank you to Cory Campbell, who not only
helped me with the technical side of ArcGIS but gave me the confidence I needed in my data to
persevere. Thank you to my friends who I subjected my maps to on several different occasions,
and thanks to the members of GEOS 214 for braving the long Jesup days with me. We were truly
all in it together.

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