Statistics and Probability [166

marks]

Juliet is a sociologist who wants to investigate if income affects

happiness amongst doctors. This question asks you to review Juliet’s
methods and conclusions.
Juliet obtained a list of email addresses of doctors who work in her city. She
contacted them and asked them to fill in an anonymous questionnaire.
Participants were asked to state their annual income and to respond to a set of
questions. The responses were used to determine a happiness score out of 100. Of
the 415 doctors on the list, 11 replied.

1a. Describe one way in which Juliet could improve the reliability of her [1 mark]
investigation.

Markscheme
Any one from: R1
increase sample size / increase response rate / repeat process
check whether sample is representative
test-retest participants or do a parallel test
use a stratified sample
use a random sample

Note: Do not condone:

Ask different types of doctor
Ask for proof of income
Ask for proof of being a doctor
Remove anonymity
Remove response K .
[1 mark]

1b. Describe one criticism that can be made about the validity of Juliet’s [1 mark]
investigation.
 Markscheme
Any one from: R1
non-random sampling means a subset of population might be responding
self-reported happiness is not the same as happiness
happiness is not a constant / cannot be quantified / is difficult to measure
income might include external sources
Juliet is only sampling doctors in her city
correlation does not imply causation
sample might be biased

Note: Do not condone the following common but vague responses unless they
make a clear link to validity:
Sample size is too small
Result is not generalizable
There may be other variables Juliet is ignoring
Sample might not be representative
[1 mark]

Juliet’s results are summarized in the following table.

1c. Juliet classifies response K as an outlier and removes it from the data. [1 mark]
Suggest one possible justification for her decision to remove it.
 Markscheme
because the income is very different / implausible / clearly contrived R1

Note: Answers must explicitly reference "income" to get credit.

[1 mark]

For the remaining ten responses in the table, Juliet calculates the mean happiness
score to be 52. 5.

1d. Calculate the mean annual income for these remaining responses. [2 marks]

Markscheme
($) 90 200 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

1e. Determine the value of r, Pearson’s product-moment correlation [2 marks]

coefficient, for these remaining responses.

Markscheme
r = 0. 558(0. 557723 …) A2

[2 marks]

Juliet decides to carry out a hypothesis test on the correlation coefficient to

investigate whether increased annual income is associated with greater
happiness.

1f. State why the hypothesis test should be one-tailed. [1 mark]

 Markscheme
EITHER
only looking for change in one direction R1
OR
only looking for greater happiness with greater income R1
OR
only looking for evidence of positive correlation R1

[1 mark]

1g. State the null and alternative hypotheses for this test. [2 marks]

Markscheme
H0 : ρ = 0; H1 : ρ > 0 A1A1

Note: Award A1 for ρ seen (do not accept r), A1 for both correct hypotheses,
using their ρ or r. Accept an equivalent statement in words, however
reference to “correlation for the population” or “association for the population”
must be explicit for the first A1 to be awarded.
Watch out for a null hypothesis in words similar to “Annual income is not
associated with greater happiness”. This is effectively saying ρ ≤ 0 and should
not be condoned.

[2 marks]

1h. The critical value for this test, at the 5% significance level, is 0. 549. [2 marks]
Juliet assumes that the population is bivariate normal.
Determine whether there is significant evidence of a positive correlation between
annual income and happiness. Justify your answer.
 Markscheme
METHOD 1 – using critical value of r
0. 558 > 0. 549(0. 557723 … > 0. 549) R1
(therefore significant evidence of) a positive correlation A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

METHOD 2 – using p-value
0. 0469 < 0. 05(0. 0469463 … < 0. 05) A1

Note: Follow through from their r-value from part (c)(ii).

(therefore significant evidence of) a positive correlation A1

Note: Do not award A0A1.

[2 marks]

Juliet wants to create a model to predict how changing annual income might
affect happiness scores. To do this, she assumes that annual income in dollars, X,
is the independent variable and the happiness score, Y , is the dependent
variable.
She first considers a linear model of the form
Y = aX + b.

1i. Use Juliet’s data to find the value of a and of b . [1 mark]

Markscheme
a = 0. 000126(0. 000125842 …), b = 41. 1(41. 1490 …) A1

[1 mark]

1j. Interpret, referring to income and happiness, what the value of a [1 mark]
represents.
 Markscheme
EITHER
the amount the happiness score increases for every $1 increase in (annual)
income A1

OR
rate of change of happiness with respect to (annual) income A1

Note: Accept equivalent responses e.g. an increase of 1. 26 in happiness for

every $10000 increase in salary.

[1 mark]

Juliet then considers a quadratic model of the form

Y = cX 2 + dX + e.

1k. Find the value of c, of d and of e. [1 mark]

Markscheme
c = −2. 06 × 10−9 (−2. 06191 … × 10−9 ),
d = 7. 05 × 10−4 (7. 05272 … × 10−4 ),
e = 12. 6(12. 5878 …) A1

[1 mark]

1l. Find the coefficient of determination for each of the two models she [2 marks]
considers.
 Markscheme
for quadratic model: R2 = 0. 659(0. 659145 …) A1
for linear model: R2 = 0. 311(0. 311056 …) A1

Note: Follow through from their r value from part (c)(ii).

[2 marks]

1m. Hence compare the two models. [1 mark]

Markscheme
EITHER
quadratic model is a better fit to the data / more accurate A1
OR
quadratic model explains a higher proportion of the variance A1

[1 mark]

1n. Juliet decides to use the coefficient of determination to choose between [1 mark]
these two models.
Comment on the validity of her decision.

Markscheme
EITHER
not valid, R2 not a useful measure to compare models with different numbers
of parameters A1
OR
not valid, quadratic model will always have a better fit than a linear model A1

Note: Accept any other sensible critique of the validity of the method. Do not
accept any answers which focus on the conclusion rather than the method of
model selection.

[1 mark]
 After presenting the results of her investigation, a colleague questions whether
Juliet’s sample is representative of all doctors in the city.
A report states that the mean annual income of doctors in the city is $80 000.
Juliet decides to carry out a test to determine whether her sample could
realistically be taken from a population with a mean of $80 000.

1o. State the name of the test which Juliet should use. [1 mark]

Markscheme
(single sample) t-test A1

[1 mark]

1p. State the null and alternative hypotheses for this test. [1 mark]

Markscheme
EITHER
H0 : μ = 80 000; H1 : μ ≠ 80 000 A1
OR
H0 : (sample is drawn from a population where) the population mean is
$80 000
H1 : the population mean is not $80 000 A1

Note: Do not allow FT from an incorrect test in part (f)(i) other than a z-test.

[1 mark]

1q. Perform the test, using a 5% significance level, and state your [3 marks]
conclusion in context.
 Markscheme
p = 0. 610(0. 610322 …) A1

Note: For a z-test follow through from part (f)(i), either 0. 578 (from biased
estimate of variance) or 0. 598 (from unbiased estimate of variance).

0. 610 > 0. 05 R1

EITHER
no (significant) evidence that mean differs from $80 000 A1

OR
the sample could plausibly have been drawn from the quoted population A1

Note: Allow R1FTA1FT from an incorrect p-value, but the final A1 must still
be in the context of the original research question.

[3 marks]

It is known that the weights of male Persian cats are normally distributed with
2
mean 6. 1 kg and variance 0. 52 kg .

2a. Sketch a diagram showing the above information. [2 marks]

 Markscheme

A1A1

Note: Award A1 for a normal curve with mean labelled 6. 1 or μ, A1 for

indication of SD (0. 5) : marks on horizontal axis at 5. 6 and/or 6. 6 OR
μ − 0. 5 and/or μ + 0. 5 on the correct side and approximately correct
position.

[2 marks]

2b. Find the proportion of male Persian cats weighing between 5. 5 kg and [2 marks]
6. 5 kg.

Markscheme
X~N(6. 1, 0. 52 )
P(5. 5 < X < 6. 5) OR labelled sketch of region (M1)
= 0. 673(0. 673074 …) A1

[2 marks]

A group of 80 male Persian cats are drawn from this population.

2c. Determine the expected number of cats in this group that have a weight [3 marks]
of less than 5. 3 kg .
 Markscheme
(P(X < 5. 3)=)0. 0547992 … (A1)
0. 0547992 … × 80 (M1)
= 4. 38(4. 38393 …) A1

[3 marks]

The male cats are now joined by 80 female Persian cats. The female cats are
drawn from a population whose weights are normally distributed with mean
4. 5 kg and standard deviation 0. 45 kg.

Ten female cats are chosen at random.

2d. Find the probability that exactly one of them weighs over 4. 62 kg. [4 marks]

Markscheme
Y ~N(4. 5, 0. 452 ),
(P(Y > 4. 62)=)0. 394862 … (A1)
use of binomial seen or implied (M1)
using B(10, 0. 394862 …) (M1)
0. 0430(0. 0429664 …) A1

[4 marks]

2e. LetN be the number of cats weighing over 4. 62 kg. [1 mark]

Find the variance of N .

Markscheme
np(1 − p)= 2. 39(2. 38946 …) A1

[1 mark]
2f. A cat is selected at random from all 160 cats. [4 marks]
Find the probability that the cat was female, given that its weight was over 4. 7 kg
.

Markscheme
P(F ∩(W > 4. 7))= 0. 5 × 0. 3284(= 0. 1642) (A1)
P ( F ∩ ( W>4.7 ) )
attempt use of tree diagram OR use of P(F W > 4. 7 )= P ( W>4.7 )
(M1)
0.5×0.3284
0.5×0.9974+0.5×0.3284
(A1)

= 0. 248(0. 247669 …) A1

[4 marks]

The number of coffees sold per hour at an independent coffee shop is modelled by
a Poisson distribution with a mean of 22 coffees per hour.
Sheila, the shop’s owner wants to increase the number of coffees sold in the shop.
She decides to offer a discount to customers who buy more than one coffee.
To test how successful this strategy is, Sheila records the number of coffees sold
over a single 5-hour period. Sheila decides to use a 5% level of significance in her
test.

3a. State the null and alternative hypotheses for the test. [1 mark]

Markscheme
H0 : m = 110, H1 : m > 110 A1
Note: Accept other appropriate variables for the mean.
Accept 22 in place of 110.

[1 mark]

3b. Find the probability that Sheila will make a type I error in her test [4 marks]
conclusion.
 Markscheme
P(X ≥ 128)= 0. 05024 (M1)(A1)
P(X ≥ 129)= 0. 04153 (M1)
(probability of making a type I error is) 0. 0415 A1

Note: If other probabilities are seen, the final A1 cannot be awarded unless
0. 0415 is clearly identified as the final answer.

[4 marks]

3c. Sheila finds 126 coffees were sold during the 5-hour period. [2 marks]
State Sheila’s conclusion to the test. Justify your answer.

Markscheme
X~Po(110)
P(X ≥ 126)= 0. 072 > 0. 05 OR recognizing 126 < 129 or ≤ 128 R1
so there is insufficient evidence to reject H0 A1
(ie there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the number of coffees being
sold has increased)

Note: Accept ‘Accept H0 ’.

Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]

A survey of British holidaymakers found that 15 % of those surveyed took a

holiday in the Lake District in 2019.

A random sample of 16 British holidaymakers was taken. The number of people in

the sample who took a holiday in the Lake District in 2019 can be modelled by a
binomial distribution.

4a. State two assumptions made in order for this model to be valid. [2 marks]
 Markscheme
people’s holidays are independent of each other R1
the proportion is constant (at 0. 15) R1

[2 marks]

4b. Find the probability that at least three people from the sample took a [2 marks]
holiday in the Lake District in 2019.

Markscheme
X~B(16, 0. 15)
P(X ≥ 3)= 0. 439 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

4c. From a random sample of n holidaymakers, the probability that at least [3 marks]
one of them took a holiday in the Lake District in 2019 is greater than
0. 999.
Determine the least possible value of n.

Markscheme
= 1− probability of none
probability of at least one
⇒ 1 − 0. 85n > 0. 999 OR 0. 85n < 0. 001 (A1)
attempt to solve inequality (M1)
n ≥ 42. 503 …
so least possible n = 43 A1

[3 marks]
 The continuous random variable X has the probability distribution function
f(x) = A sin(ln(x)), 1 ≤ x ≤ 5.

5a. Find the value of A to three decimal places. [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
5
A ∫1 sin(ln x)dx = 1 (M1)
A = 0.323(3 dp only) A1
[2 marks]

5b. Find the mode of X . [2 marks]

Markscheme
cos(ln x)
either a graphical approach or f ′ (x) = x
= 0 (M1)

x = 4.81 (= e 2 ) A1
π

Note: Do not award A1FT for a candidate working in degrees.

[2 marks]

As part of the selection process for an engineering course at a particular

university, applicants are given an exam in mathematics. This year the university
has produced a new exam and they want to test if it is a valid indicator of future
performance, before giving it to applicants. They randomly select 8 students in
their first year of the engineering course and give them the exam. They compare
the exam scores with their results in the engineering course.

6a. State the name of this test for validity. [1 mark]

Markscheme
criterion-related A1
[1 mark]
 The results of the 8 students are shown in the table.

6b. Calculate Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient for this data. [2 marks]

Markscheme
r = 0.414 A2
[2 marks]

6c. Hence determine, with a reason, if the new exam is a valid indicator of [2 marks]
future performance.

Markscheme
Since the value of r is low (closer to 0 than +1), R1
The new exam is not a valid indicator of future performance. A1
[2 marks]

7. Students sign up at a desk for an activity during the course of an [8 marks]

afternoon. The arrival of each student is independent of the arrival of
any other student and the number of students arriving per hour can be modelled
as a Poisson distribution with a mean of λ.
The desk is open for 4 hours. If exactly 5 people arrive to sign up for the activity
during that time find the probability that exactly 3 of them arrived during the first
hour.
 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
3 −λ
P(3 in the first hour) = λ 3!
e
A1

number to arrive in the four hours follows P o(4λ) M1

(4λ)5e −4λ
P(5 arrive in total) = 5!
A1
attempt to find P(2 arrive in the next three hours) M1
(3λ)2e −3λ
= 2!
A1
use of conditional probability formula M1
λ 3e − λ (3λ)2e −3λ
×
P(3 in the first hour given 5 in total) = 3! 2!
(4λ)5e −4λ
A1
5!

( 2!3!
9
)
45
= 512
= 0.0879 A1
( 45! )
5

[8 marks]

A and B are independent events such that P(A) = P(B) = p, p ≠ 0.

8a. Show that P(A ∪ B) = 2p − p2 . [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
= P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B) (M1)
= p + p − p2 A1
= 2p − p2 AG
[2 marks]

8b. Find P(A|A ∪ B) in simplest form. [4 marks]

 Markscheme
P(A∩(A∪B ))
P(A|A ∪ B) = P(A∪B )
(M1)

Note: Allow P(A ∩ A ∪ B) if seen on the numerator.

P(A)
= P(A∪B )
(A1)
p
= 2p−p2
A1
1
= 2−p
A1

[4 marks]

9a. On the Venn diagram shade the region A′ ∩ B′ . [1 mark]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

A1

[1 mark]

Two events A and B are such that P(A ∩ B′ ) = 0.2 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.9.

9b. Find P(A′ |B′ ). [4 marks]

 Markscheme
P (A′∩B ′)
P (A′ |B′ ) = P (B ′)
(M1)

P (B′ ) = 0.1 + 0.2 = 0.3 (A1)

P (A′ ∩ B′ ) = 0.1 (A1)
0.1 1
P (A′ |B′ ) = 0.3
= 3
A1
[4 marks]

The eventsA and B are such that P(A) = 0.65, P(B) = 0.48 and
P(A ∪ B) = 0.818.

10a. Find P(A ∩ B). [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
Note: In Section A, where appropriate, accept answers that correctly round
to 2 sf except in Q2, Q5(a) (ii), Q5(b) and Q8(a).

0.818 = 0.65 + 0.48 − P(A ∩ B) (M1)

P(A ∩ B) = 0.312 A1
[2 marks]

10b. Hence show that the events A and B are independent. [2 marks]
 Markscheme
P(A)P (B) = 0.312 (= 0.48 × 0.65) A1
since P(A)P (B) = P(A ∩ B) then A and B are independent R1

Note: Only award the R1 if numerical values are seen. Award A1R1 for a
correct conditional probability approach.
[2 marks]
Total [4 marks]

Consider two events A and A defined in the same sample space.

11a. Show that P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(A′ ∩ B). [3 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
METHOD 1
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) M1
= P(A) + P(A ∩ B) + P(A′ ∩ B) − P(A ∩ B) M1A1
= P(A) + P(A′ ∩ B) AG
METHOD 2
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) M1
= P(A) + P(B) − P(A|B) × P(B) M1
= P(A) + (1 − P(A|B)) × P(B)
= P(A) + P(A′ |B) × P(B) A1
= P(A) + P(A′ ∩ B) AG
[3 marks]

4 1 1
 Given that P(A ∪ B) = 49 , P(B|A) = 1
3
and P(B|A′ ) = 16 ,

11b. (i) show that P(A) = 13 ; [6 marks]

(ii) hence find P(B).

Markscheme
(i) use P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(A′ ∩ B) and P(A′ ∩ B) = P(B|A′ )P(A′ )
(M1)
4
9
= P(A) + 16 (1 − P(A)) A1

8 = 18P(A) + 3 (1 − P(A)) M1
1
P(A) = 3
AG
(ii) METHOD 1
P(B) = P(A ∩ B) + P(A′ ∩ B) M1
= P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A′ )P(A′ ) M1
1 1 1 2 2
= 3
× 3
+ 6
× 3
= 9
A1
METHOD 2
1 1 1
P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A)P(A) ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = 3
× 3
= 9
M1

P(B) = P(A ∪ B) + P(A ∩ B) − P(A) M1

4 1 1 2
P(B) = 9
+ 9
− 3
= 9
A1
[6 marks]

12. Each of the 25 students in a class are asked how many pets they own. [7 marks]
Two students own three pets and no students own more than three pets.
The mean and standard deviation of the number of pets owned by students in the
class are 18
25
and 24
25
respectively.

Find the number of students in the class who do not own a pet.
 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
METHOD 1
let p have no pets, q have one pet and r have two pets (M1)
p + q + r + 2 = 25 (A1)
0p + 1q + 2r + 6 = 18 A1
Note: Accept a statement that there are a total of 12 pets.
attempt to use variance equation, or evidence of trial and error (M1)
0p+1q+4r+18 2 2
25
− ( 18
25
) = ( 24
25
) (A1)
attempt to solve a system of linear equations (M1)
p = 14 A1

METHOD 2

(M1)

2
p+q+r+ 25
=1 (A1)
6 18
q + 2r + 25
= 25
(⇒ q + 2r = 12
25
) A1
18 2
q + 4r + 25
− ( 18
25
) = 576
625
(⇒ q + 4r = 18
25
) (M1)(A1)
6 3
q= 25
, r= 25
(M1)
14
p= 25
A1
so 14 have no pets
[7 marks]

A box contains four red balls and two white balls. Darren and Marty play a game
by each taking it in turn to take a ball from the box, without replacement. The first
player to take a white ball is the winner.

13a. Darren plays first, find the probability that he wins. [4 marks]
 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
probability that Darren wins P(W ) + P(RRW ) + P(RRRRW ) (M1)

Note: Only award M1 if three terms are seen or are implied by the
following numerical equivalent.

Note: Accept equivalent tree diagram for method mark.

2 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 2 1 1 1
= 6
+ 6
∙ 5
∙ 4
+ 6
∙ 5
∙ 4
∙ 3
∙ 2 (= 3
+ 5
+ 15
) A2

Note: A1 for two correct.

3
= 5
A1
[4 marks]

13b. The game is now changed so that the ball chosen is replaced after each [3 marks]
turn.
Darren still plays first.
Show that the probability of Darren winning has not changed.
 Markscheme
METHOD 1
the probability that Darren wins is given by
P(W ) + P(RRW ) + P(RRRRW ) + … (M1)

Note: Accept equivalent tree diagram with correctly indicated path for
method mark.

1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1
P (Darren Win) = 3
+ 3
∙ 3
∙ 3
+ 3
∙ 3
∙ 3
∙ 3
∙ 3
+…

or = 13 (1 + 49
2
+ ( 49 ) + …) A1

= 13 ( 1−1 4 ) A1
9

3
= 5
AG
METHOD 2
P (Darren wins) = P
1
P= 3
+ 49 P M1A2
5 1
9
P = 3
3
P= 5
AG
[3 marks]
Total [7 marks]

A and B are such that P(A ∪ B) = 0.95, P(A ∩ B) = 0.6 and

Events
P(A|B) = 0.75.

14a. Find P(B). [2 marks]

 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
P(A∩B )
P(A|B) = P(B )
0.6
⇒ 0.75 = P(B )
(M1)
0.6
⇒ P(B) (= 0.75
) = 0.8 A1
[2 marks]

14b. Find P(A). [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
⇒ 0.95 = P(A) + 0.8 − 0.6 (M1)
⇒ P(A) = 0.75 A1
[2 marks]

14c. Hence show that events A′ and B are independent. [2 marks]

 Markscheme
METHOD 1
P(A′∩B ) 0.2
P(A′ |B) = P(B )
= 0.8
= 0.25 A1

P(A′ |B) = P(A′ ) R1

hence A′ and B are independent AG

Note: If there is evidence that the student has calculated P(A′ ∩ B) = 0.2
by assuming independence in the first place, award A0R0.

METHOD 2
EITHER
P(A) = P(A|B) A1
OR
P(A) × P(B) = 0.75 × 0.80 = 0.6 = P(A ∩ B) A1
THEN
A and B are independent R1
hence A′ and B are independent AG
METHOD 3
P(A′ ) × P(B) = 0.25 × 0.80 = 0.2 A1
P(A′ ) × P(B) = P(A′ ∩ B) R1
hence A′ and B are independent AG
[2 marks]

There are 75 players in a golf club who take part in a golf tournament. The scores
obtained on the 18th hole are as shown in the following table.

15a. One of the players is chosen at random. Find the probability that this [2 marks]
player’s score was 5 or more.
 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
29
P(5 or more) = 75
(= 0.387) (M1)A1
[2 marks]

15b. Calculate the mean score. [2 marks]

Markscheme
2×3+3×15+4×28+5×17+6×9+7×3
mean score = 75
(M1)
323
= 75
(= 4.31) A1
[2 marks]

Iqbal attempts three practice papers in mathematics. The probability that he

passes the first paper is 0.6. Whenever he gains a pass in a paper, his confidence
increases so that the probability of him passing the next paper increases by 0.1.
Whenever he fails a paper the probability of him passing the next paper is 0.6.

16a. Complete the given probability tree diagram for Iqbal’s three attempts, [3 marks]
labelling each branch with the correct probability.
 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for each correct column of probabilities.

[3 marks]

16b. Calculate the probability that Iqbal passes at least two of the papers he [2 marks]
attempts.

Markscheme
probability (at least twice) =
EITHER
(0.6 × 0.7 × 0.8) + (0.6 × 0.7 × 0.2) + (0.6 × 0.3 × 0.6) + (0.4 × 0.6 × 0.7)
(M1)
OR
(0.6 × 0.7) + (0.6 × 0.3 × 0.6) + (0.4 × 0.6 × 0.7) (M1)
Note: Award M1 for summing all required probabilities.
THEN
= 0.696 A1
[2 marks]

16c. Find the probability that Iqbal passes his third paper, given that he [3 marks]
passed only one previous paper.
 Markscheme
P(passes third paper given only one paper passed before)
P (passes third AND only one paper passed before)
= P (passes once in first two papers)
(M1)

(0.6×0.3×0.6)+(0.4×0.6×0.7)
= (0.6×0.3)+(0.4×0.6)
A1

= 0.657 A1
[3 marks]

A café serves sandwiches and cakes. Each customer will choose one of the
following three options; buy only a sandwich, buy only a cake or buy both a
sandwich and a cake.
The probability that a customer buys a sandwich is 0.72 and the probability that a
customer buys a cake is 0.45.

Find the probability that a customer chosen at random will buy

17a. both a sandwich and a cake. [3 marks]

Markscheme
use of formula or Venn diagram (M1)
0.72 + 0.45 − 1 (A1)
= 0.17 A1
[3 marks]

17b. only a sandwich. [1 mark]

Markscheme
0.72 − 0.17 = 0.55 A1
[1 mark]
 On a typical day 200 customers come to the café.

17c. Find the expected number of cakes sold on a typical day. [1 mark]

Markscheme
200 × 0.45 = 90 A1
[1 mark]

17d. Find the probability that more than 100 cakes will be sold on a typical [3 marks]
day.

Markscheme
let X be the number of customers who order cake
X ~ B(200,0.45) (M1)
P(X > 100) = P(X ≥ 101)(= 1 − P(X ≤ 100)) (M1)
= 0.0681 A1

[3 marks]

It is known that 46 % of the customers who come to the café are male, and that
80 % of these buy a sandwich.

17e. A customer is selected at random. Find the probability that the customer [1 mark]
is male and buys a sandwich.

Markscheme
0.46 × 0.8 = 0.368 A1
[1 mark]

17f. A female customer is selected at random. Find the probability that she [4 marks]
buys a sandwich.
 Markscheme
METHOD 1
0.368 + 0.54 × P (S |F ) = 0.72 M1A1A1
Note: Award M1 for an appropriate tree diagram. Award M1 for LHS, M1 for
RHS.
P (S |F ) = 0.652 A1

METHOD 2
P(S∩F )
P (S |F ) = P(F )
(M1)
0.72−0.368
= 0.54
A1A1
Note: Award A1 for numerator, A1 for denominator.
P (S |F ) = 0.652 A1

[4 marks]

John likes to go sailing every day in July. To help him make a decision on whether
it is safe to go sailing he classifies each day in July as windy or calm. Given that a
day in July is calm, the probability that the next day is calm is 0.9. Given that a
day in July is windy, the probability that the next day is calm is 0.3. The weather
forecast for the 1st July predicts that the probability that it will be calm is 0.8.

18a. Draw a tree diagram to represent this information for the first three [3 marks]
days of July.
 Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

M1A2

Note: Award M1 for 3 stage tree-diagram, A2 for 0.8, 0.9, 0.3 probabilities
correctly placed.

[3 marks]

18b. Find the probability that the 3rd July is calm. [2 marks]

Markscheme
0.2 × 0.7 × 0.3 + 0.2 × 0.3 × 0.9 + 0.8 × 0.1 × 0.3 + 0.8 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.768
(M1)A1
[2 marks]

18c. Find the probability that the 1st July was calm given that the 3rd July is [4 marks]
windy.
 Markscheme
P(1st July is calm and 3rd July is windy)
P(1st July is calm | 3rd July is windy) = P(3rd July is windy)
(M1)
0.8×0.1×0.7+0.8×0.9×0.1
= 1−0.768
0.8×0.1×0.7+0.8×0.9×0.1
OR 0.2×0.7×0.7+0.2×0.3×0.1+0.8×0.1×0.7+0.8×0.9×0.1

OR 0.128
0.232
(A1)(A1)
Note: Award A1 for correct numerator, A1 for correct denominator.
= 0.552 A1
[4 marks]

The discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution, where p
is a constant.

19a. Find the value of p. [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.
equating sum of probabilities to 1 (p + 0.5 − p + 0.25 + 0.125 + p3 = 1) M1
p3 = 0.125 = 18
p= 0.5 A1
[2 marks]

19b. Find μ, the expected value of X. [2 marks]

 Markscheme
μ = 0 × 0.5 + 1 × 0 + 2 × 0.25 + 3 × 0.125 + 4 × 0.125 M1
11
= 1.375 (= 8
) A1
[2 marks]

19c. Find P(X > μ). [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(X > μ) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) (M1)
= 0.5 A1
Note: Do not award follow through A marks in (b)(i) from an incorrect value of
p.
Note: Award M marks in both (b)(i) and (b)(ii) provided no negative
probabilities, and provided a numerical value for μ has been found.
[2 marks]

Adesh wants to model the cooling of a metal rod. He heats the rod and records its
temperature as it cools.

He believes the temperature can be modeled by T (t) = aebt + 25, where

a, b ∈ R.

20a. Show that ln (T − 25) = bt + ln a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
ln (T − 25) = ln (aebt ) M1

ln (T − 25) = ln a + ln (ebt ) A1
ln (T − 25) = bt + ln a AG
[2 marks]

ln ( − 25)
20b. Find the equation of the regression line of ln (T − 25) on t. [3 marks]

Markscheme
ln (T − 25) = −0.00870t + 3.89 M1A1A1
[3 marks]

Hence

20c. find the value of a and of b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
b = −0.00870 A1
a = e3.89... = 49.1 M1A1
[3 marks]

20d. predict the temperature of the metal rod after 3 minutes. [2 marks]

Markscheme
T (180) = 49.1e−0.00870(180) + 25 = 35.2 M1A1
[2 marks]

The marks achieved by eight students in a class test are given in the following
list.

The teacher increases all the marks by 2. Write down the new value for

21. the standard deviation. [1 mark]

 Markscheme
2.22 A1
[1 mark]

© International Baccalaureate Organization 2021

International Baccalaureate® - Baccalauréat International® - Bachillerato Internacional®

Printed for M-PESA FOUNDATION ACAD