Building a resilient

Coastal Railway line

S U B MI TT ED TO TH E N AT I O N A L A SS E MB LY
(NASS)
Background
The proposed coastal railway line will connect 15 cities in southern Nigeria many of them coastal cities with a potential to enhance
already vibrant economic activity see figure 1. The overall cost of the project is estimated at 11.7 billion USD to be financed via a
credit facility enabled by the Chinese government. This submission draws the attention of lawmakers to issues that are important to
consider to ensure a sustainable and resilient infrastructure returning value for money. These issues are formed around three key
elements. See below;

How inclusive is the process? What is the

How resilient is the proposed development? Can it
gender/disabled representation? What is the youth
withstand known climatic/environmental disaster
representation in all processes considering the
typical of that region? How quickly can post
restiveness of the youth in this region?. What
operative disruptions recover from the impact of
measures are put in place to spread wealth and
disasters both natural and manmade?
facilitate inclusion.
Resilience Inclusion

Life cycle cost (LCC)

What is the cost of maintenance and operations
beyond the capital cost of acquisition? What are
the considerations for low fuel consumption? Is
there a deliberate attempt to lower the carbon
footprint of pre/post operations over time?
 The Nigerian coastal railway

Figure1: Nigerian Coastal rail line shown on left map in red, map of Nigeria on right. Source: Nigerian Railway corporation.
 Resilience:
The hazard of coastal flooding will threaten pre and post operating infrastructure e.g buildings and IT systems. Poverty and inequalities will
widen if certain groups are excluded from employment opportunities throughout the project cycle. The IT systems that run operations,
payments and ticketing are vulnerable to attacks from saboteurs as well as from disasters. Nature-based solutions from ecosystem services
(MEA, 2005) can provide mitigating services to flooding e.g mangroves.

Physical/environmental Economic resilience Cyber security/resilience

• Southern Nigeria especially the Niger

delta region has all year- round
rainfall regime attaining 2500
mm/year compared to about
400mm/year in the North (Oguntade
et al., 2011) with evidence of high-
level oscillations (Olaniran, 2002).
Coastal flooding due to sea level rise
is also highest in this region
particularly in the Niger Delta (Fabiyi
and Yesuf, 2016; Cirella and
Iyalomhe, 2018)where the largest
concentration of the rail tracks will be.
• The concept of economic resilience
includes two key components.  The
first is the ability of an economy of
households, firms or an economy to
withstand or absorb an economic
shock.  The second is a more dynamic
component which relates to the ability
of households, firms or the economy
more widely, to adapt to changing
circumstances and strengthen their
ability to respond to potential future
shocks (Hallegate, 2014).
• The ability to anticipate, withstand,
recover from, and adapt to adverse
conditions, stresses, attacks, or
compromises on systems that use or
are enabled by cyber resources.
• Cyber attacks impact the digital
economy, leading to loss of income
and manhours arising from
disruptions.
• The scale and disasters from cyber
attacks makes them comparable with
natural disasters
 Resilience issues to expect:
Key areas of concern will be related to physical impacts of flooding leading to disruptions of infrastructure (pre/post
construction), wilful damage due to exclusion in a restive region. Clearing for construction can threaten areas of cultural
significance and vegetation. The largest mangroves forest in Africa (Alongi, 2012) is located in this zone and faces the risk of
clearing for development. About 85% of wetlands have been converted globally (Watkins et al., 2019)

PRE-OPERATION HAZARDS POST OPERATION HAZARDS

1. Flooding – causing construction delays, damage to
equipment and manpower leading to delay in meeting
targets and consequent impact on overall cost due to
delay
2. Vandalization- wilful damage to property due to
perceived exclusion and marginalisation of certain
groups
3. Power cuts- fluctuating power will cause delays in
progress and disrupt smooth workflow
1. Flooding – causing destruction of critical
infrastructure, power installations and signalling
and communication equipment
2. Vandalization of infrastructure
3.Cyber-attacks – leading to disruption of services,
loss of funds and destruction of sensitive records
4. Power cuts- fluctuating power will cause
disruptions to services
 Inclusion
Societal dominance by men could mean deploying public goods and services to serve their needs excluding other groups. These
infrastructure may appear apolitical and gender-neutral and aimed at reducing poverty and hardship potentially transforming lives
for the better. At the same time, they can be deeply exclusionary if infrastructure planning and implementation does not include
women and minorities. As long as masculine sensibilities determine access to public goods, it may still act as a source of social exclusion.

Climate vulnerability, poverty, and social exclusion are intersecting

phenomena, yielding distinct and multidimensional disaster outcomes
depending on the group affected. Sociocultural roles, norms, and values
associated with certain identities determine access to resources,
economic opportunities, and representation in decision-making.
Identified markers of social identity include
• Gender: Women have less access to opportunities
• Race: Discrimination based on race
• Ethnicity
• Religion
• Age
• Disability
Figure 2. schematic diagram of inclusion; source: Hagen-Zanker (2012)
 Inclusion cont’d:
Gender equality does not only deprive women of basic rights and opportunities but also impact the outcomes of economic development due
to the role of women in economic development of, especially the informal sector. Young people who constitute majority of the population face
possible exclusion form job opportunities during construction and operations due to limited expertise or other social considerations, which
can lead to discontent and consequent sabotage similar to the experience in the oil industry within this zone. Again, the physically challenged
face possible exclusion from benefitting from the services of railways if there challenged are not factored into post operational provisions

Gender Age Physical challenge

• Women risk losing out on

opportunities due to the societal
social structure
• Women own the smaller businesses
that risk demolition during clearing
for development e.g road-side
buying and selling.
• Women stand lower access
opportunities for on-site jobs
during construction due to labor
intensive nature.
• Women risk lower access to
transport services when fully
operational
• Younger people stand a lesser
chance of being engaged in pre and
operational processes leading to
detachment, dissatisfaction and
consequent sabotage as witnessed
in the oil and gas sector in the same
region.
• Younger people except if provided
for have a diminished capacity to
pay for rail services and should be
considered in pricing.
• Due to limited physical capacity,
opportunities to participate in
manual pre-operations of the rail
are low.
• Access to the service except if
factored in will make disabled
people seriously disadvantaged in
benefitting from rail services.
• Wealth gaps will widen more
between able and disabled people if
disproportionately engaged in all
processes of the project cycle
 Life cycle costing Life cycle costing (LCC) is an
economic assessment considering all agreed
projected significant and relevant cost flows over a
period of analysis expressed in monetary value.
The projected costs are those needed to achieve
defined levels of performance, including
reliability, safety and availability (ISO 15686-5).

LCC should be used to:

• Develop a business case to assess the expected
revenues, costs and risks associated with the
investment
• Compare the intrinsic values of project options that
have different costs and useful lives.
• Understand the primary drivers of the asset’s ongoing
costs.
• Evaluate different operating models to find the
optimal business solution on a cost basis
• prepare budgets and estimate future resource
requirements,
• Evaluate the total costs when comparing replace
versus refurbish scenarios. Figure 3. Diagram of LCC Process. Source: University of North Carolina, chapel hill, 18th Feb
2019
 Recommendations based on LCC of the Nigerian Coastal Railway Project
LCC theory presumes that if all these costs are identified for all courses of action, the course of action with the lowest life cycle costs should be chosen. n. A prerequisite for the comparison is that the
solutions provide the required service and technical standards. Resilience and inclusion can be considered throughout the life cycle with maximum utility derived when considered at design stage
Pre-operation phase
Design and procurement
• Physical design directly determines the cost of ownership (initial investment). Site accessibility can affect this investment and
together with other associated investments, influence asset degradation (Zoeteman, 2001). Thus, at procurement level, lawmakers
can use oversight function to ensure that bidders who present the alternatives with the lowest carbon footprint, operational energy
consumption levels and final asset disposal should be considered and not necessary the lowest bid.
• Natural capital should be incorporated into the design process and the bid that considers this component the most should be
incentivized. Example are mangroves which are excellent shoreline protectors (Alongi, 2012) and hence should be protected s
much as possible.
Construction
• Clearing for development should consider cultural sites and other sensitive locations that provide spiritual and aesthetic services to
local population. Inclusion of local communities at all decision levels is a pathway. Hence bidders with the highest environmental
consideration should be incentivized. Buildings should be energy efficient post operation with the last carbon footprint. Example is
powering systems and buildings with solar
• The local biodiversity should be protected at all cost and should be factored into the design of the railway system and protected as
a clause in the agreement. This will mitigate the impact of flooding
Inclusion
• Vulnerable and marginalized groups should be engaged based on a percentage in all aspects of the project from design to
construction all the way to operations in line with the Principle of Federal character*.
• As much as possible relevant roles consistent with the capabilities of women , young people and the physically challenged should
be exclusively reserved for such groups.
• Local communities to be part of decisions all through the lifecycle to protect local sites of significance and gain project
acceptability.

*FEDERAL CHARACTER PRINCIPLE IS A CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION THAT SEEKS TO ENFORCE THE EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE
EQUITABLY AMONG THE NIGERIAN FEDERATING UNITS. IT ENFORCES THAT IN RECRUITMENTS INTO BUREAUCRATIC POSITIONS AMONG AGENCIES OF GOVERNMENT
 Operational phase:
Resilience issues that come up during the operation of constructed infrastructure and the vulnerability to hazards has been documented,
with profound impact on maintenance and disposal during the life cycle and at the end.

Maintenance and disposal

• The quality degradation of infrastructure determines the required volume of maintenance and renewal (M&R). The chosen maintenance
strategy influences the amount of preventive and corrective M&R over the life span (Zoeteman, 2001).
• This should be considered during the award stage and the lowest maintenance cost over the life cycle should be adopted. Some
operations have significant overhead cost of operations e.g fuel and energy use and this should determine selection among bidders .

Cybersecurity
• Strategies to ensure cybersecurity are to be applied on both public and private sector while adoption of building information models
(Ghadiminia et al., 2021). These should be incorporated at design stage
• Ensure that post design bids conform to the National policy on cybersecurity as well as guidance notes from multinationals like the world
bank.
• Put in place a crisis management system to help rapid recovery following attacks on IT systems to avoid minimize the impact of
disruptions.
Inclusion
• Vulnerable and marginalized groups should be engaged based on a percentage in all aspects of the project from design to construction all
the way to operations in line with the Principle of Federal character*.
• As much as possible relevant roles consistent with the capabilities of women , young people and the physically challenged should be
exclusively reserved for such groups.
• Local communities to be part of decisions all through the lifecycle to protect local sites of significance and gain project acceptability .

*FEDERAL CHARACTER PRINCIPLE IS A CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION THAT SEEKS TO ENFORCE THE EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC
INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITABLY AMONG THE NIGERIAN FEDERATING UNITS. IT ENFORCES THAT IN RECRUITMENTS INTO BUREAUCRATIC POSITIONS
AMONG AGENCIES OF GOVERNMENT
Federal Character
Principle
The Federal Character Principle is a constitutional provision of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria with responsibility to promote, monitor and enforce compliance
with the principles of the proportional sharing of all bureaucratic, economic, media
and political posts at all levels of government (FCC establishment Act, 1995).

The federal character principle (FCP) can be regarded as a direct approach to

redress horizontal inequalities between different groups in society. Such an
approach targets specific groups directly and associates a person’s group identity
with a certain benefit (Demarest et al., 2020) .

The Federal Character Commission enforces compliance to the FCP and provides a
legal layer for lawmakers to leverage and ensure that the coastal railway project
meets with the criteria for a green resilient and inclusive development GRID from
procurement stage. This should be a pre-condition for the loan to be approved and
contractors engaged.
Summary
To achieve GRID, the coastal railway
project must seek to address the key
issues highlighted in the presentation and
consistent with the principles of quality
infrastructure investment. The existence of
the FCC strengthens the capacity of
Lawmakers to ensure that resilience and
inclusion are mitigated against by using
legislating for the adoption of the LCC in
the procurement, operation and disposal
of the railway assets.
 Assessment, M.E., 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: wetlands and water. World
resources institute.

Cirella, G.T. and Iyalomhe, F.O., 2018. Flooding conceptual review: sustainability-focalized
best practices in Nigeria. Applied Sciences, 8(9), p.1558.

Fabiyi, O.O. and Yesuf, G.U., 2016. Dynamics and characterization of coastal flooding in
Nigeria: Implication for local community management strategies. Ife Research Publications
in Geography, 12(1), pp.45-61.

Caribbean.

Ghadiminia, N., Mayouf, M., Cox, S. and Krasniewicz, J., 2021. BIM-enabled facilities
management (FM): a scrutiny of risks resulting from cyber attacks. Journal of Facilities
Management.

Hallegatte, Stephane. 2014. Economic Resilience: Definition and Measurement. Policy

Research Working Paper;No. 6852. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank

Oguntunde, P.G., Abiodun, B.J. and Lischeid, G., 2011. Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–
2000. Journal of Hydrology, 411(3-4), pp.207-218.

References
Olaniran, O.J., 2002. Rainfall anomalies in Nigeria: The contemporary understanding.

Zoeteman, A., 2001. Life cycle cost analysis for managing rail infrastructure: Concept of a
decision support system for railway design and maintenance. European Journal of Transport
and Infrastructure Research, 1(4).

Watkins, G., Silva, M., Rycerz, A., Dawkins, K., Firth, J., Kapos, V., Canevari, L., Dickson,
B. and Amin, A.L., 2019. Nature-Based Solutions: Increasing Private Sector Uptake for
Climate-Resilience Infrastructure in Latin America and the
Thank you!