Towards Disaster Resilient

Development in Bhutan
With 11th FYP; An opportunity beckons
Mainstreaming DRR into Development Processes

• concept of mainstreaming

• Why mainstreaming of DRR in Bhutan

What is “mainstreaming” ?
 SAME STREAM

Main stream

Side
stream
Source: PEDRR
 to mainstream
(v)

To bring something into the ideas, attitudes, or activities

that are shared by most people and regarded as

normal or conventional.
 MAKING PART OF
NORMAL PROCEDURE
 RESTAURANT

BANK

HOME Central DOCTOR’S

park OFFICE

STORE

WORK
 How do we mainstream? - The Model

Embed the stages of the DRM

process into the stages of the
process.
Development

A 1

B 2

C 3
 What do we mean by ‘mainstreaming’ DRM
into Development?

Make DRM part of the normal process

SYNONYMS:
• Strategic approach
Institutionalize
• Continuous Integrate
Embed
Infuse
 D R M
V

MAKING PART OF
NORMAL PROCEDURE
V

m e nt
ve lo p
De
Why Mainstream DRM into Development?

Inappropriate Development can increase Disaster Risk by:

• Increasing vulnerability
• Increasing exposure
• Increasing hazard frequency, intensity or duration
If improperly managed, development can:
*Create new risk
*Exacerbate existing risk

But if properly managed, development can:

*Avoid generating new risk
*Manage existing risk
*Protect people and assets
Increasing vulnerability

Under-provision of basic services means

that many communities are made more
vulnerable to all hazards because they do
not have access to essential services
which support life, such as fresh drinking
water, electricity for cooking, heating and
lighting, sanitation for the removal of
waste water, etc.
Under-regulation is the state of having insufficient
government and civil society structures to enforce
and implement regulations set by government and
other public bodies.

Environmental degradation is the result of ongoing

development which does not protect the
environment.
Increasing exposure
Disaster prone areas are becoming occupied by
more and more communities and assets.
Increasing hazards frequency, intensity and
duration.

Increasing hazard frequency, intensity or duration

Climate change is the change in the state of the
climate due to different natural or human-
generated processes. As a result of a changing
climate, many types of weather systems (such as
rain, storms, cyclones, wind etc.) are changing.
 Why Mainstream DRM into Development?

• Cost-effective

• Time-efficient

• Resource-efficient
 Overview: A Framework for
Wrap-up mainstreaming DRM
Key points

• By mainstreaming DRM into development processes, development

outcomes are better protected.
• Mainstreaming DRM involves embedding the disaster risk management
process into the relevant stages of the development process.
• Mainstreaming DRM is cyclical, comprehensive, systematic and can be
undertaken at any stage and within any development process.
 • ‘Why’ in Bhutan

…
Hard earned
development gains
remain fragile and at
risk of reversal…
 • Robust economic growth pattern has
been sustained by rapid expansion and
growth of hydropower and
construction sectors- comprise of 1/3 of
economy

• Gross Domestic Capital Formation has

averaged at 45.6 % of GDP over last
Bhutan has continued to enjoy decade compared to estimate of 40%
robust growth and rapid -largely due to construction of numerous
socio-economic development infrastructure and hydropower projects
while ensuring the
• Income poverty has scaled back by 5%
preservation of its culture and points a year and expected to decline
environmental heritage less than 15% by 2013

• Scaled up enrollment for primary

education, gender equality in access to
basic education

• 72.5% of forest cover, half of this area

designated at protected area, pledged to
always remain a carbon neutral economy

Source: Eleventh Round Table Meeting, 2011

 • Small size, remoteness, landlocked
situation, weak economies of scale,
nascent private sector, dependence
on hydropower revenues and external
assistance

• Rugged and harsh mountain terrain,

However as we enter the
11FYP period, many more
challenges continue to face
the country…especially of
providing last mile
development coverage
scattered nature of settlements add
to the development costs of providing
social services, basic infrastructure
– Requires much higher unit and per capita
cost for most MDG interventions as compared
to other countries (MDG needs assessment
and costing report)

• Considerable spatial disparities in

income and human poverty levels
across and within regions- 5.9 %

• Coverage levels of drinking water in

rural areas – many water sources
having dried up
 • Cyclone Aila, 2009, widespread damage
to socio-economic infrastructure
including roads, bridges, irrigation
channels and housing, influx of heavy
debris and silt caused clogging and silting
in hydropower projects

But the same development • Earthquake, September 2009, affected

gains are often impacted by
‘disasters’ and the same
development challenges are
aggravated by ‘risk’ from
natural hazards and climate
change
7290 people, damaged 4616 homes, 90
schools, 60 government offices, 25
hospitals, 281 monasteries, total damage
USD 52 million
• Looming threat from possible outburst of
25 glacial lakes situated in catchment
areas of the five major river basins where
70 % of human settlements are located in
low lying downstream valleys

• Changes in hydromet systems due to

climate change resulting in alterations in
seasonal weather patterns and extreme
drought and flood occurrences –will
impact livelihoods, hydropower and
agriculture based economy
 Major disaster events in Bhutan during the 10FYP period

Disaste r Ye ar Loss Est. %of Expe nd. %of Re marks

Eve nt (Nu. conc. (Nu. conc.
million) FY million) FY
outla outlay
y
1 Floods May 2009 766 21.43 321.40 7.743 Percentage of capital
2 Earthquake Sept. 2009 2005 679.67* outlay for 2009-2010 – Nu.
12,929.143 million
3 Wamrong Fire Oct. 2010 98.335** 0.51 3.6 (construction of new
homes)
4 1st Chamkhar Oct. 2010 0.179 (relief and recovery
fire expenses for Wamrong
5 2ndChamkhar Feb. 2011 fire
fire 4.766 (relief and recovery
6 3rd Chamkhar May 2011 for Chamkhar fires)
fire 25.4 (Commercial
7 Windstorms 2011 insurance claims paid by
RICB – Not included as
Expenditure)
2869. 545
 Thus impacting the 4 pillars of Gross National Happiness

Image Source: murraygunn.id.au

The impact of
disasters is felt on
every sector….
 • 21st September 2009 Earthquake
–Estimated loss Nu. 124 million
–45 BHUs destroyed
–Cost of reconstruction : Health facilities -Nu.
136 million, Water and Sanitation Facilities
-Nu. 46 million

• Example: Health Services Narang –

Health…Earthquake, –Built in 2007, completely collapsed, outreach
services suspended, routine immunization
Windstorms
affected
–Due to damage to water supply and sanitation
facilities- five fold increase in diarrheal cases

• 18th September 2011 Earthquake

–Estimated loss of Nu. 10.24 million
–9 Hospitals, 40 BHUs and 11 ORCs damaged

• 2011 Windstorms:
–21 BHUs / ORC destroyed across 17 dzongkhags
 • 117 schools across 12 dzongkhags
reported damage..

• Nu.653 million Estimated cost of re-

construction…

• MoE prioritized re-construction

activities worth Nu. 284.354 million to
Education; Impacts of be carried out within the 10th FYP
2009 Earthquake period and re-appropriated Nu.55.712
million from within the 10th FYP budget
allocated to the Ministry

• Some reasons of damage

– Construction of Community Primary Schools
– Maintenance of old structures
– School locations
– Poor sanitation and hygiene infrastructures
– Inadequate Water supply
 • 2009 floods caused by Cyclone Aila
destroyed highways, farm and feeder
roads, bridges

• Total monetary loss; estimated

Nu.63.3million (excluding the routine
monsoon restoration estimate of Nu.120.8
Roads, FloodS million)

• DoR allocated budget of Nu.110.00 million

for financial year 2009-2010 for monsoon
restoration works. Request for additional
funds to meet cost of restoration works
for Cyclone Aila and for normal monsoon
restoration did not succeed and had to
re-prioritize restoration and cyclone Aila
related damage reconstruction with aim
not necessarily to improve and build back
better but to make roads functional
The impact of
disasters is felt at
every level…..
 • Gross Domestic Product
(National, Sectoral)

• Gross Capital Formation

• Balance of Payment
Macro Economy
• Inflation
 • Decrease in government revenues

• Additional expenditure in support

of the relief and recovery

• Partial reallocation of already

committed financial resources, with
Public Finance implications for planned investment,
and/or widening of fiscal deficit

• Lead to increased domestic and/or

external borrowing
 • Climate change is expected
to alter the climate regime
and also increase the scale
and frequency of
major weather /
climate related events
This impact will only
increase since…
• Economic severity of natural
catastrophes is growing due
to rise in both population
and economic activity in
areas with high risk
exposure and
vulnerability
Why there is high
disaster risk in
Bhutan?
 • Rugged and fragile
geophysical structure
• Very high peaks and high
Bhutan is angle of slopes
vulnerable to • Complex geology
• Variable climatic conditions
natural hazards
• Lies in one of the most
active seismic zones in the
world

Source: UNDP 2004

 • Earthquakes
– Lies in one of the most active seismic
zones in the world
– Located largely in the high risk seismic
zones IV and V (as per the Indian seismic
micro-zonation map)

• Forest fires, Droughts,

Common hazards Windstorm
in Bhutan
• Glacial lake outburst floods
(GLOFs)
– Has 2,674 glacial lakes and 25 of them
have been identified as potentially
dangerous

• Landslides
– Located in geographical zone most prone
to fatality including landslides
Seismic Hazard Map of Bhutan
 Further….Natural hazards are increasing with Climate Change

Changes in
• Climate change models predict for Bhutan precipitation and
glacial melt with
– Alternations in seasonal weather together result in
patterns higher incidence of
– Increased volatility in precipitation
patterns and hydrology flows • Floods
• Water-induced
– Rise in mean temperature will result in
landfalls
glacial melt and increased • GLOFs
evapotranspiration • Soil erosion
• Increased siltation
 • Hydrological flows in Bhutan are
highly dependent on rainfall,
snowmelt and glacial melt runoff
and thus with increased volatility in
precipitation patterns and
hydrology flows due to climate
change; will impact the already
Example: Impacts on seasonal variations in hydropower
generation
climate change on
hydropower • Flash floods or excessive
discharges, could lead to higher
generation of power but this could
be offset by massive siltation and
sedimentation problems that could
diminish the life span of power
projects not to mention exact
enormous costs of de-siltation.
But natural hazards are not the only factor for disaster risk
 • Demographic growth
• Rapid urban expansion
• Weak land use planning
Rising vulnerability • Poor basic infrastructure
and exposure is • Narrow economic base
contributing to • Poor construction methods and
disaster risk… enforcement; road, housing
essentially improper • High fuel wood consumption
development • Environmental impact of road
practices construction
• Accelerated hydropower development
• Potential biodiversity and habitat loss
• Land degradation
Thus the need for
adopting resilient
development….
By critically understanding risks posed by natural hazards as part of each
of our development work and taking necessary actions to reduce risk

Hazards

Adapted from IPCC SREX, 2012

Thus theYear
11th Five needPlan:
for an
adopting
opportunityresilient
to strengthen
development….
resilience within 4 pillars
of GNH…
11th Five Year Plan is an opportunity to strengthen
resilience within the 4 pillars of GNH
 This implies:

• Disaster Resilience is one of the

key areas under which the
results of the 11th FYP will be
measured, i.e. truly cross-
11th FYP includes cutting approach
16 National Key
Result Areas …one • Disaster Risk Reduction will be
of them is … factored in relevant strategies,
‘Disaster Resilience plans and programs of sectors,
mainstreamed in with quantifiable indicators for
development’ monitoring progress

• Linkages between Disaster Risk

Reduction and the 4 Pillars of
GNH would need to be
strengthened in practice, bring
in behavioral change
 • Factoring in information on risks from
natural hazards in tools used for
economic modeling for GDP
forecast
– Information on changes in frequency and
severity of climate related events,
– Increase in concentration of assets in
hazard prone areas such as urban areas

Treating Disaster • Will lead to

Resilience as a Cross-
Cutting Issue would
imply..
– Setting more realistic targets
(specifically for sectors which are
frequently affected by natural hazards)
– Minimizing the need to reallocate
resources after disasters from
development budgets, thereby affecting
the budgetary planning process.

• Results of such integration will always

be probabilistic (probabilistic nature
of risk/uncertainties of climate)
 • May result in a separate chapter
focusing on DRR in 11th FYP
– Chapter must include quantifiable targets
to reduce risk, identify proactive
programmes

• DRR as key cross-cutting priorities

Treating Disaster within key strategies
Resilience as a Cross- – Poverty Reduction
Cutting Issue would – Private Sector Development /Public Private
Partnership,
imply…contd – Balanced Regional Development and
– Information Communication and Technology

• DRR as a priority for sectoral

strategies and programs

• DRR included in section on

monitoring and evaluation
 • Sector chapters on 11th FYP treats
risk reduction as an integral
component for achieving sectoral
outcomes

Disaster Risk • While formulating sector targets,

Reduction will be consider impacts of disaster risk
factored in relevant
strategies, plans • Identify proactive measures to
and programs of reduce risk in the sectors
– In targeted programmes such as Rural
sectors Economy Advancement Program
– Built in as part of other development
programs
– Stand alone programs if necessary

• Set quantifiable indicators for

monitoring progress
 • ‘Eco‐efficient/disaster resilient
education infrastructure developed’

• Would require revisiting designs of

education infrastructure and
incorporating hazard resilient features
Education
• Ensuring appraisal process of all new
“Percentage of below the education infrastructure is screened
age of 24 is projected to through disaster lens (location of
comprise about 46% of schools can often be a major issue)
population and with those
below fifteen comprising • Retrofitting of schools in very high risk
30% in 2020”
• Preparedness Plans are in place in all
schools

• Awareness among students on risk

reduction
 • ‘Eco‐efficient and disaster resilient
health infrastructure ensured’ is
identified as one of the sector key
result areas

• Would require revisiting designs of

health infrastructure and
incorporating hazard resilient
Health features

“The most expensive hospital • Ensuring appraisal process of all new

is the one which fails” health infrastructure is screened
through disaster lens

• Retrofitting of existing stock in high

risk areas

• Preparedness Plans are in place in all

health facilities to ensure it’s
functioning during emergencies
 • ‘Mitigation measures to prevent
landslides along existing roads
developed’

• Project Appraisal Tools used for

road factors in concerns related
Roads to disaster risk

“Crucial for connecting the – Economic Appraisal (Cost Benefits)

last mile” – Environmental Appraisals
– Logical Frameworks

• Regular maintenance of road

(11th FYP will have increased
budget for recurrent
expenditure)
What should be our
priorities…our way
forward…
 • The 105,000 individuals still
living in poverty…
• Factors contributing to multi-
dimensional poverty: access to
improved sanitation, cooking
fuel, schooling and electricity
Priorities • Factors hindering the ‘last mile
connectivity’
• Food and nutritional security
• Urban areas
 If national public investments of
key sectors under 11th FYP can
account for disaster and climate
Way Forward… risk, they can reduce potential
losses at a scale impossible to
Redefining Development
achieve through stand-alone
interventions on disaster risk
reduction and climate change
adaptation…..

Adapted from GAR, 2011

 • Influence disaster resilient national
policies

• Ensure public finances are least

impacted by disasters

• Support DRR related legislations

An appeal to
Senior Officials in • Advocate for disaster proofing
development as one of the cost-
the eve of 11th FYP effective, ‘no regret’ investments in
poverty reduction, especially in the
face of changing climate

• Guide in translating disaster resilient

policies into local actions with
increased investments