Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Powered by:
The 100-Year-Old Story of EV Disruption
It was 1914.
Henry Ford bought his wife, Clara, a Detroit Electric car rather than one of his own Model
Ts.
That year, Henry Ford confirmed rumours that he was developing a low-cost electric car. It
was to be developed in partnership with none other than Thomas Edison.
The problem that Ford was trying to solve was building a light weight storage battery. This
would operate for long distances without recharging. The need for constant recharging
was the electric car's primary weakness back then.
For want of a reliable battery, the electric car was repeatedly delayed. Edison tried and
failed to develop an alternative to the heavy, bulky lead-acid batteries.
You see, for any new technology to flourish, it requires support from the whole ecosystem.
Without support of the whole ecosystem, no technology can thrive on its own.
Although pathbreaking, the technology did not find acceptance, in the initial decade.
Denso lacked the resources to promote the technology. So, he chose to make the patents
open in the hope that other companies would adopt QR codes.
Thus, like the QR codes, mass adoption of electric vehicles needs the development of an
entire ecosystem.
As players in the EV ecosystem invest in R&D and share technology, electric vehicles will
see a massive surge in demand in the coming decades.
But over the last 10 years, a lot of research has been done with new battery chemistries
and compositions.
In just 10 years, the battery prices have fallen by 89%, from around US$ 1,300/kWh in
2010 to just around Rs 10,000/kWh today.
Bloomberg NEF research predicts by 2023, this will fall further to US$101/kWh.
Below this price point, electric vehicles would be cheaper to mass produce and sell than
internal combustion vehicles.
That’s the reason why every major auto-maker is dumping internal combustion vehicles
today and going electric. They know the future of the auto industry is electric.
And here we are not talking about the change happening in some distant future.
There is no better way to gauge this change than to see what’s happening in Germany…
home to the leading brands like Audi, BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen…
And what happened in Germany in 2021 gives us a clear clue into what’s coming in the near
future.
Very soon, we could see this same trend all over the world.
While public transport vehicles (like buses and cabs) and goods carriers may be most
adaptable to the EV ecosystem to begin with, over a period a time, we may see even
mainstream passenger vehicles join them.
Since 2013, the world has been adding more electricity-generating capacity from wind and
solar than from coal, natural gas, and oil combined.
Electric vehicles will reduce the cost of battery storage and help store intermittent sun and
wind power.
In the move toward a cleaner grid, electric vehicles and renewable power create a mutually
beneficial circle of demand.
But there’s another side to this EV equation. There are myths that threaten to derail mass
adoption of EVs.
Fact: By 2040, electric cars will draw 1,900 terawatt-hours of electricity, according to BNEF.
That is equivalent to just 10% of all electricity produced in 2020.
Fact: According to BNEF, through 2030, battery packs will require less than 1% of the known
reserves of lithium, nickel, manganese, and copper. They will require 4% of the world’s
cobalt. After 2030, new battery chemistries will probably shift to other source materials,
making packs lighter, smaller, and cheaper.
India is on the same path as these economies were on a few years ago. Knowing their
journeys will give a good sense of this opportunity.
Also, India’s low EV penetration so far makes the opportunity size much bigger for us. There
is unique late mover advantage that India will benefit from as compared to the early
movers.
160,000 16.0%
120,000 12.0%
80,000 8.0%
40,000 4.0%
- 0.0%
Passenger
2 Wheelers
3 Wheelers^
Commercial
Vehicles
vehicles
(buses)
EV Units Penetration (% of ICE sales, RHS)
Source: KPMG
^In addition, there are 10 lakh units of e-rickshaws
With battery prices falling 89%, the pace of transition is likely to be much faster in India than
what was seen in the early adopting countries like the China and Europe.
For two wheelers and three wheelers, with or without subsidies, the total cost of vehicle
ownership – upfront buying cost plus operational cost over the life of the vehicle – is already
at par, or even lower than internal combustion engine vehicles.
For instance, the fuel cost for a diesel vehicle, for covering the same distance, could be 10
times as compared to the fuel cost for an EV.
Here’s how the timelines could look like for mass adoption of EVs in India.
As the data suggests, the biggest and most immediate opportunity is in 2-wheelers and
3-wheelers.
Two wheelers in India comprise over 80% of the of the auto volumes. They can be charged
from the comfort of home, without having to wait for public charging infrastructure.
In China, with an overall EV penetration of 12%, 80% of the two wheeler fleet is electrified.
From a low base and with a conservative 5% growth, 2-wheelers sales in India could rise
from 18 million units to 29 million units over the next decade.
Let’s take at a conservative assumption that just one third of this fleet will be electric by the
next decade. Then, the electric 2-wheeler units could be at 10 million – a 66 x opportunity.
Then there is the cost rationalization along with the government’s FAME incentives. Also,
there are committed deadlines under Paris agreement to bring down pollution below
certain levels.
Source: KPMG
Similarly, for three wheelers, the volume sales have been at 11 lakh units (exports included),
of which electric rickshaws average around 1 lakh.
As per International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2030, EVs could grow 15 times, at 30%
annual rate every year over next decade.
Also, as per global consultancy firm Alix Partners, industrywide EV investments are planned
at Rs 25 trillion.
These categories holistically address how EVs are made, bought, serviced, operated and
become profitable.
In the listed space, the EV ecosystem includes companies like Amara Raja, Exide Batteries,
Minda Industries (sensors and controllers), Minda Corporation (safety, communication
systems, lightweighting), KPIT and Tata Elxsi (software, design and architecture), Fiem
Industries (vehicle lighting), Kabra Extrusiontechnik (battery storage), Hindalco and Nalco
(lightweighting) Himadri Specialty Chemical, HBL Power System (batteries, electronics, and
motors), Tata Power (charging infrastructure), just to name a few.
EV 2W EV 3W EV 4W E-CV
EV Software
Power EV Charger EV Charger Battery
Storage Manufacturer Operator Swapping Operator
Source: Equitymaster
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that India will be the country with the
greatest need for additional energy flexibility in the coming decades.
Stored electricity is flexible enough to cater to gaps and changes in supply and demand.
Which means all the electricity that is being produced will have to be stored effectively for
later use.
So, electric batteries are to this century what oil was to the previous one.
The International Energy Agency has predicted that India will have a third of global
battery storage capacity by 2040.
40%
40%
3% 10%
7%
Battery Electric Drive
Power Electronics Vehicle Interface Control
Non Power train components
EVs will need better aesthetics, design, and fuel economies. This will imply opportunities
not just for EV component makers, but EV agnostic suppliers as well.
In fact, EV agnostic players could be safer plays as compared to some pure play EV
component suppliers that might be too ahead of the curve for their own good.
Later in the report, we will share which of these could be attractive investment bets with
decent margin of safety.
These are the visible faces in the EV gold rush. But will they be ones to strike gold?
Most of these players (barring Ola which is not listed anyway) have been the market leaders
in their respective segments with internal combustion engine based vehicles dominating
the portfolio. EVs contribution is in low single digits.
Incubating EVs is a compulsion. It’s a process of creative destruction they cannot afford to
postpone or ignore. EVs will replace their legacy products.
Even if this tiny part grows 15x, a mere low double digit shrinkage in their legacy products
would make the EV transition an underwhelming proposition.
These names will indeed be the front runners in EV revolution, but the ones that will
strike gold are likely to be backdoor plays – the companies in the EV ecosystem.
This is just like those who got rich supplying picks and shovels in the California gold rush.
But again you will need to be very selective in the auto ancillary space, as some of them
might be staring at a shrinking market.
There are only around 20 moving parts in fully electric car. This compares to 2,000 parts
in ICE vehicles.
Here’s a snapshot of the big opportunities and traps in the auto ecosystem.
Headlights Controllers
Leaf springs
Shock absorber
Source: BEE Technical Study of EVs and Charging Infrastructure, Industry Report (GIZ, Niti Aayog)
This means, within the EV ecosystem, you need to be highly selective.
On the other hand, there will be section in the ecosystem that will witness huge structural
tailwinds.
• Amara Raja Batteries, Exide Batteries, Minda Industries (sensors and controllers)
• Hindalco and Nalco (lightweighting) Himadri Specialty Chemical, HBL Power System
(batteries, electronics and motors), Tata Power (charging infrastructure)
Later on in the report, we will share which of these could be attractive investments with
decent margin of safety.
EVs will need better aesthetics, design, and fuel economies too. This implies opportunities
not just for EV component makers, but EV agnostic suppliers as well.
In fact, EV agnostic players could be safer plays compared to some pure play EV component
suppliers that might be too ahead of the curve for their own good.
So, it won’t be surprising to find Indian masses move towards electric mobility.
• Low-vehicle penetration
Lithium-ion batteries are critical in the making of battery packs for electric vehicles. They
account for 35-40% of the cost of an electric vehicle. Lithium cells constitute around 70%
per cent of the battery cost.
13 | Electric Vehicles: The Ultimate Market Intelligence Report
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has transferred its in-house lithium ion
technology at a nominal fee of Rs 10 m to 10 Indian companies for commercial production.
This move is expected to lead to the establishment of lithium-ion cell production facilities
for indigenous EVs.
Leading global players have shown interest in establishing cell or battery pack manufacturing
facility in India. Major Indian firms have also outlined plans to set up manufacturing facilities.
Rechargeable batteries are the most valuable part of an EV. In fact, it often differentiates
the frontrunners from the rest.
So, most EV companies are rightly focussed on building giga-factories for batteries.
EV batteries need consistent and abundant supply of lithium and cobalt. Mining these "rare
earth" elements raise environmental and geopolitical questions.
Though lithium is quite abundant, cobalt is not. The main source of cobalt is the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, where mining conditions are primitive. To add to that they violate
human rights.
If that was not enough, once mined, cobalt is mostly refined in China, which also has the
lion's share of global lithium-ion battery production capacity.
China, in fact, dominates production of rare-earth elements, too. Not surprisingly, almost
40% of the EVs produced in the world today come out of Chinese factories.
Geopolitical tensions have already led to disputes between China and western countries
on supply of computer chips and manufacturing tools.
EV producers in India who are betting big on lithium batteries, need to make way for
alternative fuels too.
Those companies successful in doing so may be able to ride a rather long megatrend.
So, the real wealth in electric vehicles is far from the passenger car manufacturers, for now.
Rather, companies that successfully develop batteries with reliable fuel have a lot of profits
coming their way.
Meanwhile, the government has offered strong incentives to switch to electric vehicles.
The Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME II) was
introduced to drive greater adoption of EVs in India.
It was launched with a massive budget outlay of Rs 100 bn in April 2019, to support 7,000
e-buses, 500,000 e-3-wheelers, 55,000 e-passenger vehicles, and a million e-2-wheelers.
As of June 2021, only 78,045 vehicles had benefited under the scheme.
In fact, in a boon for new electric two-wheeler customers, the scheme has increased the
demand incentive by 50% to Rs 15,000 per kWh compared to Rs 10,000 per kWh earlier.
The maximum cap was also increased to 40% of the e-2-wheeler cost compared to 20%
earlier.
The government also approved a PLI scheme (Production-Linked Incentive) which promotes
advanced technologies, chief of which is battery electric technology.
This scheme, offers an incentive of Rs 261 bn, which will be provided over a period of five
years. It focuses specifically on EVs and Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and their components.
The inclusion of a PLI scheme of this magnitude, combined with existing schemes like
FAME, multiple state subsidies, etc provide a direct incentive for auto firms. The government
expects the PLI scheme to bring in investments of Rs 425 bn.
Barring Lumax Industries, Kabra Extrusiontechnik (covered in Hidden Treasure) and Bharat
Electronics, Bharat Forge (covered in StockSelect) , 16 out of the 20 stocks listed here do
not feature in our recommendations yet.
This is because they are yet to filter through all our fundamental and business quality tests.
However, as promised, as soon as we find any of these stocks meeting our recommendation
criteria, we will send you an alert regarding the same.
Meanwhile, familiarise yourself with some of the leading stocks in India’s EV ecosystem.
And do keep a watch on recommendations in both StockSelect and Hidden Treasure to get
the alerts on new EV stock ideas.
Tata Power
Tata Power is India’s largest EV charging infrastructure provider.
The company has already set up 961 charging stations. It has targeted to more than double
this number to 2,000 charging stations by year end and a target of 5x in 5 years.
Apart from charging stations, the company is also looking to provide battery swapping
stations. Tata Power has signed an agreement with HPCL to provide end to end charging
This makes Tata Power a strong play in the EV eco system. The pedigree of Tata group also
gives comfort from the corporate governance point of view.
Minda Industries
Minda Industries, the UNO Minda group flagship company which makes auto components
such as switches, lighting, and seating.
It’s increasing its focus on transition to electric vehicles. The company is working on new
products like sensors and controllers for the electric power train.
The existing products are protected from transition to EVs. Besides the company is looking
to increase content per vehicle as the share of EVs increase.
The company is actively looking to increase its share from the EV segment by 2025 with
multiple new products.
Lumax Industries
Lumax Industries, the leading manufacturer of automotive lighting is expected to be a
beneficiary from the transition to EVs.
The company is a market leader with a 50% plus market share in the passenger vehicle
segment in front and back lighting and has a 30% market share in the 2-wheeler market.
The transition to EVs is likely to lead to shift towards LEDs which will increase realisations
and margins going forward.
Besides, Lumax falls in the category of auto companies which are not only unaffected by
the EV transition but will aid in terms of higher content and realisations.
Bharat Electronics
Bharat Electronics, a Navratna PSU, manufactures advanced electronic products for ground
and aerospace applications.
The company has signed a MOU with Triton Electric Vehicle for developing EVs and energy
storage systems. BEL will be the exclusive manufacturing partner to Triton in India for
identified products. Triton will provide the know-how and technical support.
A strong balance sheet along with superior technical know-how makes BEL a good bet to
play the EV eco system.
Greaves Cotton
Greaves Cotton an engineering company which makes engines for heavy vehicles is
looking to transform itself in to a green energy entity focused on electric vehicles.
With 3 acquisitions in the EV space – Ampere scooters, ELE Rickshaws, and MLR autos, the
company is looking to position itself as a pure EV player.
It has lined up a capex of Rs 7 bn over the next 10 years in that regard. The plant is likely to
have a capacity of 1 million units annually.
With a strong workforce of 7,000 retailers and 12,000 mechanics who are being reskilled in
EV technology, Greaves Cotton is setting up a strong infrastructure and supply chain.
JBM Auto
Bus manufacturer JBM Auto has an EV vertical which has rolled out JBM EV buses.
It has launched the first Make in India electric bus in 2016. The company’s focus is to be a
one stop solution provider for electric vehicle segment by providing a complete ecosystem
for e-mobility i.e. electric buses, charging infrastructure, and battery technology.
The company has already incurred a capex of Rs 2-2.5 bn over the past 2 years and is
looking to incur Rs 2.5 bn for capacity expansion, technology development, charging
technology, and battery technology.
Himadri Chemicals
Himadri Chemicals is a multi-chemical manufacturer with focus on coal tar pitch and carbon
black.
The company has developed both natural and synthetic varieties of anode material for Li-
ion Batteries. Li-ion batteries are used in cell phones, EVs, and energy storage systems.
Gabriel India
Gabriel India is one of the leading auto component suppliers of shock absorbers and
suspension products.
EV players like Ampere, Mahindra Electric, OLA electric, Ather are among its key customers
in the EV space. This makes it a strong play in the EV segment.
Besides its current product portfolio is EV agnostic making it immune to any unexpected
shocks.
Their knowledge of batteries generated opportunities and ideas for diversification. The
company expanded into new businesses and markets that relied upon its batteries.
HBL Power can synergise on its strengths in battery, electronics, and motors in the EV
space.
Exide Industries
Exide is India's leading storage battery manufacturer. It dominates practically every category
in the automotive, industrial, and submarine industries.
Currently, the automotive industry generates 73% of the segment's revenue, followed by
industrial (26%), and submarine (3%).
With the transition to EVs, the company plans to set up set up the first lithium ion battery
cell manufacturing facility in India.
This is in addition to the plant to be set up in Gujarat in collaboration with Leclanche. The
estimated capex to be incurred is Rs 2.3 bn.
Bharat Forge
Bharat Forge is a leading forging manufacturing company in the automobiles, oil and gas,
aviation sectors. It makes forgings and casting products.
To adapt to the EV transition opportunity, Bharat Forge has set up a new company Kalyani
Powertrain. The newly formed company will look at organic and inorganic opportunities in
the EV space.
Bharat Forge with its investment in Tork Motors and setting up a new company for EV
product development could increase its EV plans going ahead.
Bosch
Bosch, a leading manufacturer of powertrain systems is preparing itself for transition to EVs,
especially 2 wheeler EVs.
With majority of its products likely to be affected due to the transition to EV, the company is
developing products in the EV segment.
It has several offerings ranging from electric machines, inverters, DC convertors along with
vehicle control units and battery management systems for the passenger and commercial
vehicle segments.
Bosch India has support from its global parent which has invested huge sums in the R&D
and has developed products for EVs.
Bosch supplies to almost every auto maker in India and is a trusted supplier for EVs in the
future with its range of products. Besides, it’s also likely to play a key role in the charging
space, with DC chargers.
With its weightage being little less than 50% of battery minerals in the lithium ion battery,
graphite becomes a very important element in a battery.
Companies like HEG and Graphite India are the country’s leading graphite manufacturers.
As Indian auto firms start making Lithium Ion batteries locally, the requirement of graphite
is expected to shoot up.
Ramkrishna Forgings
Ramkrishna Forgings one of the leading suppliers of rolled forged and machined products
has entered the EV segment by winning an order from a foreign based Tier 1 OEM in India.
These developments strengthen the company’s capabilities in the EV space. This could
lead to increased share of EV revenues in the future.
Sona Comstar
Sona Comstar is a leading auto component manufacturer supplying power train products. It
is one of the few Indian companies whose current product portfolio has a 20% contribution
from EVs. It is a supplier to marquee names across the globe. EV contribution from the
current order book is at 57% which is expected to be fulfilled over the next 8-10 years.
Sona Comstar is a global EV play with strong balance sheet and operational profile (
ROCE>30%).
Olectra Greentech
Olectra Greentech is a leading manufacturer of electric buses and insulators in India. The
company is backed by one of the largest EV manufacturers in the world i.e. BYD. Over the
past 1 year the company has received many order from the state transport undertakings of
various states in India, making it one of the preferred supplier of buses.
As State transport undertakings procure new buses, the share of inter city buses is likely to
be skewed towards electric buses. Olectra Greentech is likely to be the biggest beneficiary
of this shift.
Endurance Technologies
Endurance Technologies is a leading supplier of 2 wheeler and 3 wheeler auto components.
The company currently supplies casting parts to majority of OEMs and is engaged with
major EV players to supply castings and ABS to electric 2 wheelers.
The adoption of EVs especially in the 2W space is likely to open up opportunities as the
company is a preferred suppliers of most of the 2W OEMs
Kabra Extrusiontechnik’s battery division Batrixx manufactures battery packs for 2 wheeler
EVs. Battrixx is positioned to provide wide range of advanced lithium-ion battery packs with
smart Battery Management System (BMS) to power the growth of India’s transition to green
energy storage and electric transportation.
Batrixx has received its single largest order of 8000 battery packs to be supplied to Joy E
bikes.
Motherson Sumi
One of India’s largest wiring harness manufacturer, Motherson Sumi, is well-poised to
benefit from the increase in electronics content per vehicle in passenger vehicles and the
shift towards electric vehicles globally. In virtually all applications of an electric vehicle,
such as the EV battery, transmission, lights, braking, air conditioners and various dashboard
applications like speedometer, fuel meter, etc., wiring harness serves a major function. With
a capex of Rs 20 bn in financial year 2021-22, Motherson Sumi is prepared to scale up its
EV offerings. The company has a vision of tripling revenues by FY25 to US$ 36 bn from
US$10 billion clocked in financial year 2019-20 under the Vision 2025 plan.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (Research Analyst), bearing registration number INH000000537 (hereinafter
referred as 'Equitymaster') is an independent equity research Company. Equitymaster is not an Investment Adviser. Information
herein should be regarded as a resource only and should be used at one's own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation
to buy any securities and Equitymaster will not be liable for any losses incurred or investment(s) made or decisions taken/
or not taken based on the information provided herein. Information contained herein does not constitute investment advice
or a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of
individual subscribers. Before acting on any recommendation, subscribers should consider whether it is suitable for their
particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek an independent professional advice. This is not directed for access or use
by anyone in a country, especially, USA, Canada or the European Union countries, where such use or access is unlawful or
which may subject Equitymaster or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. All content and information is
provided on an 'As Is' basis by Equitymaster. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Equitymaster does not warrant
its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaims all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied.
Equitymaster may hold shares in the company/ies discussed herein. As a condition to accessing Equitymaster content and
website, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, available here. The performance data quoted represents past
performance and does not guarantee future results.
Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (Research Analyst) 103, Regent Chambers, Above Status Restaurant,
Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021. India. Telephone: +91-22-6143 4055. Fax: +91-22-2202 8550.
Email: info@equitymaster.com. Website: www.equitymaster.com. CIN:U74999MH2007PTC175407
23 | Disclaimer