Hallie Wachowiak 1

OGL 321 – Module 4 Paper

Most projects face uncertainty at some point during the process. Whether that

has to do with budget, schedule, or team members, there is usually some form of

uncertainty that needs a solution. The mark of a good project manager is finding a way

around or through the uncertainty that may arise. According to David Cleden (2016, p.

38), four possible solutions to overcoming uncertainty are:

1. Suppress – take pre-emptive steps to reduce overall levels of uncertainty

before problems occur.

2. Adapt – try to contain uncertainty to acceptable levels, deal with unexpected

outcomes as they arise, and remain focused on the objectives.

3. Detour – find an alternative way to reach the objectives which avoids the

uncertainty. By following a different path, any unexpected outcomes that arise

are either irrelevant or have less impact on the project.

4. Reorient – if unavoidable uncertainty means the project goals are unlikely to

be achieved, find acceptable alternatives (or compromise).

How a project manager implements one or more of these steps when uncertainty arises

can either make or break a project. If they can determine which solution is right for their

project, then they have a good chance of overcoming the uncertainty and leading the

project to success. The primary way a project manager overcomes uncertainty is by

strategizing.

Strategizing is essential for projects because it helps build a model of how a

project should operate. “The better the model, the less uncertainty there is about the
 2

future, and the better our decision-making becomes” (Cleden, 2016, p.57). Strategies

are not short-term milestones but long-term goals and are the path to the team's

ultimate goal. According to the Clever PM (2017) “…if a strategy is properly formed, it’s

a long-term view of where you’re going, and not specific enough to tie your hands when

approaching the execution side of things.” Strategies often include uncertainties, but

with a clear vision of what the project is tasked with accomplishing, the team can

overcome those uncertainties because they will be prepared for them. “Good strategy is

consequently all about selecting carefully and intelligently from a range of alternative

actions” (Warner, 2014).

When I was a teenager, I was involved in a Masonic youth group called the

International Order of the Rainbow for Girls, which helps girls between the ages of 11-

20 learn leadership skills and perform community services. When I was about 15 years

old, the adult advisors put me in charge of planning a fundraiser. I decided to hold a

spaghetti dinner fundraiser that also included a bake sale. We planned to have it at the

local Masonic Hall on a Sunday. The planning was going well until we heard that a

massive storm was going to hit that day. Because many of our supporters/customers

are older age people, we had to come up with ideas of what to do if the weather got so

bad that people didn't show up, or if we lost power to the building, which has happened

in the past during big storms. Not knowing for sure if the storm would be as bad as the

forecast predicted and not knowing if the power at the Hall would still work, I decided

that the best solution would be to change the date of the fundraiser. Luckily the Hall was

free the next weekend, so we were able to book it for that day. As the project manager, I

had to make sure everyone who bought tickets was contacted and told about the
 3

schedule change. We offered refunds (which nobody accepted) and also offered to-go

boxes if people could not stay (which a few people took). Even though we had to adapt

to the weather and location's uncertainty, we were able to strategize to hold a fundraiser

successfully.

The decisions made as a project manager can affect the team either for the good

or the bad. Decisions, whether they are made before the project has started, as part of

a strategy, or during the project, can affect the project's outcome as a whole. “Effective

decision-making lies at the heart of managing uncertainty. If we are unable (or unwilling)

to make effective decisions, then our options shrink to a single path – to let uncertainty

run its course and hope that it remains quiescent” (Cleden, 2016, p. 65). If no decision

is made at all, as the project manager, if the project fails because the uncertainty that

arose was not dealt with, then that failure will fall on the project manager's shoulders.

Making no decision does not absolve a project manager of fault, but it may show that

they are not ready to be a project manager. Being a project manager means having to

make decisions, even if that decision leads to a different outcome than initially planned.

Uncertainty is always there. How it is dealt with is the true test of a project manager.
 4

References
Cleden, D. (2016). Managing Project Uncertainty. Taylor & Francis Group. ProQuest
Ebook Central, https://ebookcentral-proquest-com.ezproxy1.lib.asu.edu/lib/asulib-
ebooks/detail.action?docID=438596.

Clever PM. (2017, June 01). Balancing Agility and Strategy. Retrieved February 04,
2021, from http://www.cleverpm.com/2017/06/01/balancing-agility-and-strategy/

Warner, J. (2014, February 27). Crafting and Executing an Organizational Strategy.

Retrieved February 04, 2021, from http://blog.readytomanage.com/crafting-and-
executing-an-organizational-strategy/