Chapter Two Population

Forecasting

CHAPTER TWO

2. POPULATION FORCASTING

The present population of a town or a city can be best determined by conducting an official enumeration,
called census. The government of every country generally carries these official surveys at intervals of say
about 10 years. Sometimes, smaller period surveys are conducted by state governments or local bodies. The
data is then used for predicting the future population of the city at the end of design periods (the year in
question).

2.1 Methods of Population Forecasting

The knowledge of population forecasting is very important for design of any water supply scheme. The
design will be done on the basis of projected population at the end of the design period. Otherwise the
present scheme will be inadequate in the near future. There are many methods of population forecasting
adopted in practice. Some of them are described below:

 Arithmetical increase method: this method is generally applicable to a large and old city, whose scope of
further expansion has reached to saturation limit. For small, average or comparatively new cities, if this
method of population forecasting is employed, we shall likely get low result than actual value. In this method
the average increase in population per decade is calculated from the past census reports. It is based upon the
hypothesis that the rate of growth is constant

Where; = the rate of change of population with time.

k = constant

dp = k.dt 

 Pn-P0 = k(tn – to)

 Pn = P0 + k(tn – to)

For a given population after: one decade, P1 = Po + 1.

two decade, P2 = P1 + 1. = Po + 2.

three decade, P3 = P2 + 1. = Po + 3.

n decade, Pn = Po + n.

Where; Pn = population at some time in the future

P0 = present population n = no. of decades b/n present and future

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 Chapter Two Population
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t = the period of projection = average (arithmetic mean) of population increases in the known
decades

For a given population from the census records of;

Present 50,000

Before one decade 47,100

Before two decades 43,500

Before three decades 41,000

The probable population after one, two and three decades using an arithmetical increase method would be;

x1 = Average increase per decade,

x2 = = 3,000

x3 =

Therefore, applying the equation Pn = Po + n. , the number of population after;

One decade, P1 = 50,000+1*3,000 = 53,000

Two decades, P2 = 50,000+2*3,000 = 56,000

Three decades, P3 = 50,000+3*3,000 = 59,000

 Geometrical increase method (uniform percentage growth): in this method, the percentage growth rate
increase is assumed to be constant. Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in
population. This method gives higher values and should be applied to a new industrial town at the beginning
of development only for few decades. This high rate of population growth lasts even for a new industrial
town for two or three decades and does not continue, but the percentage increase-decreases considerably
afterwards. However, this method is useful for cities which have unlimited scope for expansion and where a
constant rate of growth is anticipated. The geometric increase can be expressed as:

For a given population after: one decade, P1 = Po+ .Po = Po (1 + )

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Chapter Two Population
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two decade, P2 = P1+ .P1= P1 (1 + )= P0(1 + )2

three decade, P3 = P2+ .P2= P2 (1 + )= P0(1 + )3

n decade, Pn = P0 (1 + )n

Where; P0 = present population, i = average percentage increase per decade

Pn = the population at the end of n future decades

r = assumed growth rate that can be computed from the past known population data in the
following two ways;

i- Increase in population/initial population * 100, computed for each decade, and their average may be
taken as the assumed constant per decade increase(r) in either:

a- the arithmetic average i.e. OR

b- the geometric average i.e. , and

ii- Where; P1 = initial known population

P2 = final known population

t = no. of decades (period) b/n P1 and P2

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Example: For a given population from the census records of;

Present 50,000 Before two decades 43,500

Before one decade 47,100 Before three decades 41,000

The probable population after one, two and three decades using an arithmetical increase method would
be;

Decade Population
Increase in Percentage increase in population i.e.
population in
growth rate(r) =
each decade

1 2 3 4

Before three decade 41,000

2,500 2,500/41,000 * 100 = 6.10%

Before two decade 43,500

3,600 3,600/43,500 * 100 = 8.28%

Before one decade 47,100

2,900 2,900/47,100 * 100 = 6.16%

Present 50,000

The geometric mean of the growth rates(r) = = 6.78% per decade

Now using the formula: Pn = P0(1 + )n , the number of population after;

one decade, P1 = 50,000*(1+0.0678)1 = 53,390

two decades, P2 = 50,000*(1+0.0678)2 = 57,010

three decades, P3 = 50,000*(1+0.0678)3 = 60,875

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Example:

To compute the population of the year 2000 and 2006 for a city whose population in the year 1930 and
1970 were 25,000 and 47,000 respectively; since the intermediate census data b/n 1930 and 1970 is not
given the geometric mean method of all known decades is not possible. Thus the growth rate per decade

can be computed by: = = 0.17095 = 17.095% per decade

Now using the formula: Pn = P0(1 + )n

We have the population after 3 decades in 2000 and 36 years (3.6 decades) in 2006 from 1970

onwards will be; P2000 = P1970(1 + )3 = 47,000 *(1 +0.17095)3 = 75,459

P2006 = P1970(1 + )3.6 = 47,000 *(1 +0.17095)3.6 = 82,954

 Incremental increase method: for an average size town under normal condition the growth rate is found to
be in increasing order. In other words, it may be stated that there will be increments of population in each
decade. The increment in increase is determined during each decade in progressively increasing or
decreasing, depending upon whether the average of the incremental increase in the past data is positive or
negative. The population for a future decade is worked out by adding the mean arithmetic increase ( ) to
the last known population and added the average of the incremental increase ( ), once for the first decade,
twice for the second decade, trice for the third decade, and so on. In fact this method is a modification of
arithmetical increase method. This can be mathematically written as:
P1 = Po + ( + 1. )

P2 = P1 + + 2. = Po + 2 + 3. = Po + 2 + 2.

P3 = P2 + + 3. = Po + 3 + 6. = Po + 3 + 3.

P4 = P3 + + 4. = Po + 4 + 10. = Po + 4 + 4.

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Similarly; Pn = Po + n +

Where; Pn = population after n decades P0 = present population

= average increase of populations of known decades

= average incremental increase of the known decades

This method will give end results, somewhere b/n the results given by ‘arithmetic increase method’ and
‘geometric increase method’, and is thus considered to be giving quite satisfactory results.

Example:

To solve the above example by incremental increase method

Decade Population Increase in population Incremental increase i.e.

increment on the increase

4
1 2 3

Before three decade 41,000

2,500

Before two decade 43,500 (+)1,100

3,600

Before one decade 47,100 (-)700

2,900

Present 50,000

Total 9,000 (+)400

Average per decade = 9,000/3 = 3,000 = 400/2 = 200

Therefore, the future population as given by: Pn = Po + n +

After: One decade, P1 = 50,000 + 1*3,000 + *200 = 53,200

Two decades, P2 = 50,000 + 2*3,000 + *200 = 56,600

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Three decades, P3 = 50,000 + 3*3,000 + *200 = 60,200

 Decreasing rate of growth method: since the rate of increase in population goes on reducing, as the cities
reach towards saturation, a method which makes use of the decrease in the percentage increase and gives
rational results. In this method, the average decrease in the percentage increase is worked out, and is then
subtracted from the latest percentage increase for each successive decade. This method is only applicable in
cases where the rate of growth shows a downward trend.
Example: To determine the population in the year 1980, 1990 and 2000; from the census data of
1930,1940,1950,1960 and 1970 the population could be 25,000, 28,000, 34,000, 42,000, and 47,000
respectively in each successive year.

Year Population Increase in %age increase in population Decease in the %age

population increase

1930 25,000

3,000 3,000/25,000*100 = 12%

1940 28,000 (-)9.4%

6,000 6,000/28,000*100 = 21.4%

1950 34,000 (-)2.1%

8,000 8,000/34,000*100 = 23.5%

1960 42,000 (+)11.6%

5,000 5,000/42,000*100 = 11.9%

1970 47,000

Total 22,000 -11.5+11.6 =0.1%

Average per 0.1/3 = 0.033%

decade decrease

Therefore, the expected population at the end of year:

1980  47,000 + (11.9-0.03)/100 * 47,000 = 47,100 + 11.87/100 * 47,100 = 52,579

1990  52,579 + (11.87-0.03)/100 * 52,579 = 52,579 + 11.84/100 * 52,579 = 58,804

2000  58,804 + (11.84-0.03)/100 * 58,804 = 58,804 + 11.81 * 58,804 = 65,749

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Example: The population data for a certain town is given below. Find out the population in the year 2001
and 2011 by an arithmetical, geometrical, incremental increase and decrease rate of growth methods
respectively.

Year: 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

Population: 75,000 110,000 150,000 200,000 242,000

Geometric Incremental Decrease in

Year Population Population Increase Increase Increase percentage increase

1951 75,000
35,000 35,000/75,000

1961 110,000 = 0.467 (+)5,000

40,000 40,000/110,000 (+)10.30

1971 150,000 = 0.364 (+)10,000

50,000 50,000/150,000 (+)3.10

1981 200,000 = 0.333 (-)8,000

42,000 42,000/200,000 (+)12.30

1991 242,000 = 0.210

Total 167,000 7,000 25.70

Average 41,750 rg = 0.33 2,333 8.57

Solution:

 Arithmetical increase method: Pn = Po + n.

Year Population

2001 – 242,000+1*41,750 =283,750

2011 – 242,000+2*41,750 =325,500

 Geometrical increase method: Pn = P0(1 + )n

Geometric mean, rg = = 0.33

Year Population

2001 – 242,000 * (1 + 0.33)1 = 321,860

2011 – 242,000 * (1 + 0.33)2 = 428,074

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 Incremental increase method: Pn = Po + n +

Year Population

2001 – 242,000 + 1*41,750 + *2,333 = 286,083

2011 – 242,000 + 2*41,750 + *2,333 = 332,499

 Decrease rate of growth:

Year Population

2001 – 242,000 + (21-8.57)/100*242,000 = 242,000 + 12.43/100*242,000 = 272,081

2011 – 272,081 + (12.43-8.57)/100*272081 = 272,081 + 3.86/100*272081 = 282,583

Example: The present population of a city is 100,000. During the previous consecutive decades the
populations were 86,500, 90,500, and 95,000. Compute the expected population after one, two, and three
decades using arithmetical increase, geometrical increase and incremental increase methods.

Solution:

 Arithmetical increase method: Pn = Po + n.

Decade Population Increase in population

Present 100,000

5,000

One decade before 95,000

4,500

Two decade before 90,500

4,000

Three decade before; 86,500

Total 13,500

Average 13,500/3 = 4,500

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Therefore: Population after - one decade = 100,000 + 1*4,500 = 104,500

- two decades = 100,000 + 2*4,500 = 109,000

- three decades = 100,000 + 3*4,500 = 113,500

 Geometrical increase method: Pn = P0(1 + )n

Decade Population Population Increase Percentage Increase

Present 100,000

5,000 5,000/95,000*100 = 5.26%

One decade before 95,000

4,500 4,500/90,500*100 = 4.97%

Two decades before 90,500

4,000 4,000/86,500*100 = 4.62%

Three decades before 86,500

Total percentage increase 14.85%

Average percentage increase, r = 14.85/3 = 4.95 or = 4.94 ≈ 5%

Therefore: Population - after one decade = 100,000 * (1 + 0.05) 1 = 105,000

- after two decades = 100,000 * (1 + 0.05)2 = 110,250

- after three decades = 100,000 * (1 + 0.05)3 = 115,763

 Incremental increase method: Pn = Po + n +

Decade Population Increase in popn Incremental Increase

Present; 100,000

5,000

one decade before; 95,000 +500

4,500

two decade before; 90,500 +500

4,000

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 Chapter Two Population
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three decade before; 86,500

Total Incremental increase 13,500 1,000

Average incremental increase 13,500/3 = 4,500 1,000/2 = 500

Therefore:

Population after - one decade = 100,000 + 1*4,500 + *500 = 105,000

- two decades = 100,000 + 2*4,500 + *500 = 110,500

- three decades = 100,000 + 3*4,500 + *500 = 116,500

From the above results obtained, different methods give different values. So, proper selection of adopting
a method should be made depending on the nature of growth of a city.

 Graphical method: in this method, the population curve (population vs. year) is smoothly extended for
getting future population. This extension should be done carefully and it requires proper experience and
judgement. The best way of applying this method is to extend the curve by comparing with the population
curve of some other similar cities having the similar condition of growth.
Example: The towns A,B,C and D were developed in similar situation as that of a new town X under
consideration. The population in thousands of different decades in:

(i) City A were 40,53,68,& 90 in 1930,1940,1950, & 1960 respectively

(ii) City B were 40,51,61.5,& 73.5,in 1935, 1945, 1955 & 1965 respectively
(iii) City C were 40, 47.5, 54 & 62.5 in 1933, 1943, 1953 & 1963 respectively
(iv) City D were 40, 45, 51, & 57 in 1934, 1944, 1954 & 1964 respectively
(v) City X were 21.5, 26.5, 33 & 40 in 1940, 1950, 1960 & 1970 respectively
Predict the population of town X in the year 1980 & 1990

Solution: Population curves are for cities a, B, C and D. Then an average mean curve is plotted by doted
line. And the population curve for X is plotted up to the year 1970. This curve extended beyond 40,
matching with mean curve obtained earlier. From the curve population obtained are:

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 1980 ≈ 48,000
1990 ≈ 59,000
The advantage of this method is that in the absence of past census report, future population can be
predicted from the present population alone.

100
90
80
70
60
Populationin1000

50
40
30
20
10
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year A B C D X

 Logistic Curve method: can be used when the growth rate of population due to (i) births, (ii) deaths, (iii)
migration takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to extraordinary changes due to
unusual situation like (a) war, (ii) epidemic, (iii) earth quake, (iv) exodus of refuges, etc., the population
would probably follow the growth curve characteristics of living things within limited space or economic
opportunity. E
Population

Ps

B
A
Time
The S-curve represents early growth AB at an increasing rate i.e geometric growth and late growth DE at
an increasing rate as the saturation population value P s is approached. The transitional middle curve BD
follows arithmetic increase. Forecasting the future population in made on the basis of the following
equation.

= -KPst

Where: Po = population at the start point of curve A

Ps = Saturation population K = Constant

P = Population at any time t from the origin A

From the above equation:

= -KPst, OR = loge-1(-KPst)

OR loge-1(-KPst), OR

Substituting and -KPs = n; we get

This can also be further analysed with three pairs of characteristics values P o, P1, P2 at times t = to = 0, t1
and t2 = 2t1, extending over a chosen period, the saturation values P s and the constants can be evaluated
from the equations;

; and
Example: In three consecutive decades the population of a town is 40,000; 100,000; and 130,000
respectively. Determine

(i) the saturation population,

(ii) the equation of the logistic curve, and
(iii) the expected population in the next decade
Solution: for this equation we have:

Po = 40,000 t = 0

P1 = 100,000 t1 = 10 years

P2 = 130,000 t2 = 20years

Then;

2 po p1 p2  p12 po  p2 
ps 
po p2  p12

2 * 40,000 * 100,000 * 130,000  (100,000)2 (40,000  130,000)


40,000 * 130,000  (100,000)2
= 137,500

Hence, saturation population = 137,500

ps  po 137,500  40,000
m    2.4375
po 40,000
We have,
 2.3  po ps  P1 
n  log10  
t  p1 ps  po 
2.3 40,000137,500  100,000
 log 10 100,000137,500  40,000
10  

= -0.186979

Population in the next decade (after 10years)

ps 137,000
p  
1  m log e 1 ( nt) 1  2.4375 log e 1 ( 0.18697 * 30)
137,000

1  2.4375 log e 1 ( 5.6091)

Let’s put loge-1(-5.6091) = X

loge X = -5.6091 ; 2.3log10 X = -5.6091 ; log10 X = - = -2.43874

X = 0.00364

136,291

 Growth composition analysis method: change in population takes place due to (i) births, (ii) deaths, and
(iii) migration and annexations. If all these three factors are thoroughly analysed, the population growth
can be forecasted accurately. Actually, births increase population, whereas deaths decrease it. Similarly,
migration, if it is influx, will increase the population and if it is expulsion, will decrease the population.
The difference between births and deaths is called natural increase. Natural increase will be positive, if
births are more than deaths and vice versa. It can be estimated by the formula:

N = TP (Ib-Id) ± migration

Where; N = Natural increase; T = Forecasted period in years; P = Present population

Ib = Rate of births per year; Id = rate of deaths per year

 The reliability of this method depends upon the accuracy in determination of the rate of births, deaths,
and migration tendencies.

 Ratio and correlation method: this method of forecasting population is based upon the fact that
population of city would have a direct relationship to the population of the whole country. Therefore, it is
possible to forecast the population of a city under question by considering the rate of population growth
of the country as a whole. Hence, use of this method requires:
- determination of the local to the national population ratio in two to four census years
- Extrapolation of the trends indicated by the ratio to the future forecasting’s using a constant
ratio local to national population should be adopted.
This method is especially suitable for the areas where population growth has been parallel to the national
or regional population growth in the past. On the contrary this method does not take into consideration of
abnormal conditions which may exist in certain area.

Pt = Po + Po R t where; R = regional growth rate; Pt = Population after time, t

Po = Present population; = time in the future

2.2.2 Factors Affecting Population Growth

Generally two or three of the methods may be suitable for related local conditions of estimating the future
population and the obtained mean of the values is used as the population. Basically, the population to be
served by the scheme, per capita demand the rate of water requirements for various purposes and design
period the period for which the water supply schemes to be designed are the most important ones in
population estimation. In spite of every care adopted in the methods of forecasting population, some of
the possible factors which may considerably influence the estimated population are:

(i) Unforeseen circumstances such as discovery of oil, mine, etc. in the vicinity of the
town
(ii) Sudden increase in religious importance and historical temples
(iii) Nature causing accidents of earth quake, floods, epidemics, frequent famines, etc.
(iv) Development of industrial and other activities
(v) Improvement of transport facilities and economic changes
(vi) Connection of the town with some very big and important cities
(vii) Other projects activities of national importance taken up in or around the city
(viii) Political changes in the adjoining country and nearness to the national borders
Design Period of Water Supply Components: It is the time required to run any system unit to its full
capacity after its construction or installation that needs to serve the future. So it should have adequate
capacity to cope with the future population. The economic design period of the components of the water
supply system depends on:

- useful life of component structures,

- amount & availability of additional investment likely to be incurred for additional provisions,
- rate of interest on the borrowings and the additional money invested,
- ease and difficulty that is likely to be faced in expansions to be undertaken in future dates,
- anticipated rate of population growth, including possible shifts of communities, industries and
commercial establishments and
- The likelihood that they will be rendered obsolete by technological advances.

If this period is too long, the capital expenditure incurred will block the money for long time without
being utilized and that present population of the town is over taxed. Again, if it is too short, to meet the
increased demands expansions/extensions may require and frequent constructional activities will cause
disturbance and prevent smooth functioning of water supply system. So a balance has to be made between
the economy and proper functioning. The design period should not exceed the useful life of the
component structures. In most cases the design period varies from 20 to 40 years.

Water supply projects may be designed normally to meet the requirements over a thirty years period after
their completion. The time lag between design and completion should also be taken into account which
should not ordinarily exceed two years or five years even in exceptional circumstances. The thirty year
period may, however, be modified in regard to certain components of the project depending on their
useful life or the facility for carrying out extensions when required and rate of interest so that expenditure
far ahead of utility is avoided.

The different elements of the treatment and distribution systems may appropriately be designed for
different periods and their design may be based upon different criteria.

Development of source: groundwater supplies are typically easily expanded by construction of additional
wells and design periods may be as short as 5 years. Surface supplies which require construction of
impoundments would be designed perhaps to a period of 50 years. Ordinary river intakes without
impoundments are designed for intermediate periods of 20 years. The design capacity of the source is
normally based upon meeting the maximum day demand rate expected during the design period.
Pipe lines from the source: they are generally designed for a long life, since the life of pipe is as long as
25 years. The design is based on provision of economical conveyance at average daily flow at the end of
the design period with suitable velocities under all anticipated flow conditions.

Water treatment plant components: these are commonly designed for a period of 10 to 15 years as
expansion is simple when considered in the original design. The treatment units will be designed on the
basis of average daily flow at the end of the design period.

Pumping plant facilities: these are generally designed for a period of about 10 years, since
modification/expansion can be easily made when provision for change was made initially. Pump selection
and design of the pump control system require knowledge of the maximum flow expected during the life
span of the project. Thus, the total installed pumping capacity will exceed to some extent the maximum
flow expected to be pumped.

Storage reservoir: design of this structure is closely linked to design of the pumping plant whereas its life
is potentially quite long. This can be designed based on the average consumption; fire demand; hourly,
daily, weekly and monthly maximum demand as well as the capacity of the source and the pipe lines from
the source.

Distribution system elements: these are designed based on the provision of adequate pressure for fire
protection at maximum hourly flow and the maximum anticipated development of the area to be served;
population density (persons/km2), zoning regulation (predicting future population density and industrial
demand), the factors affecting the per capita flow. These elements have long life and their replacement is
very expensive.

Table: Water supply project components may be designed to meet the requirements of the following
periods:

Items Design period in years

1. Storage dams ……………………...............…………………………....50

2. Infiltration works ……………………………….......................30

3. Pumping units:-pump house ……………………………………………30

4. Electric motors and pumps Water treatment units……………………………15

5. Pipes and appurtenances (in mains and distribution systems)……………………30

6. Clear water reservoir, balancing tanks and service reservoirs……………………30