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FP's Situation Report: Do Russia-Ukraine peace talks stand

a chance in Geneva?; Hagel meeting with Poland’s defense
chief; An explosion of foreign fighters in Syria; and a bit
more.
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From:fp@foreignpolicy.com
To: beratalbayrak@gmail.com
Date: 2014-04-17 10:33
Subject: FP's Situation Report: Do Russia-Ukraine peace talks stand a chance in Geneva?; Hagel meeting with
Poland’s defense chief; An explosion of foreign fighters in Syria; and a bit more.
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Thursday, April 17, 2014
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 By
Dan Lamothe with Nathaniel Sobel Peace talks in Geneva begin today between
Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the European Union. The stated goal: Calm things down in Ukraine,
where armed clashes between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia fighters continue to boil over into bloodshed.
From the Wall Street Journal's Laurence Norman, reporting from Geneva: "Foreign ministers from Russia,
Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union started talks in Geneva on Thursday morning in the biggest diplomatic
push so far to ease tensions between Kiev and Moscow. The four-way meetings are the highest-level direct talks
between Russia and Ukraine since Moscow annexed the Crimea region and placed tens of thousands of troops on the
border. Western officials are arriving with the threat of further sanctions on Russia in what they hope will
force serious negotiations. Discussions are expected to focus on the growing crisis in eastern Ukraine, where
pro-Russian separatists have occupied government buildings in a number of towns." 
"Ukraine has sent troops to oust the separatists that Kiev and Washington
say are backed by Moscow. Three protesters were killed in an overnight clash that marked the bloodiest conflict
in the operation so far. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the last of the ministers to arrive in the
Swiss lakeside city Thursday morning. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with EU foreign policy chief
Catherine Ashton beforehand." More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIFB809e">here</a>. 
 No sudden breakthroughs are expected, however. 
A firefight in the city of Mariupol killed three protestors, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric
afterward underscores the severity of the situation. From the New York Times' David M. Herszenhorn, reporting
from Moscow: "President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphasized on Thursday that the upper chamber of the
Russian Parliament had authorized him to use military force if necessary in eastern Ukraine, and also stressed
Russia's historical claim to the territory, repeatedly referring to it as "new Russia" and saying that only "God
knows" why it became part of Ukraine. Speaking in a televised question-and-answer show, Mr. Putin also admitted
for the first time that Russian armed forces had been deployed in Crimea, the disputed peninsula that Russia
annexed last month immediately after a large majority of the population voted in a referendum to secede from
Ukraine." More from Putin, as reported by the
Times: "We must do everything to help these people to protect their rights and independently determine
their own destiny," he said. "Can a compromise be found on the Ukrainian question between Russia and America?"
Mr. Putin asked. "Compromise should only be found in Ukraine," he said. "The question is to ensure the rights
and interests of the Russian southeast. It's new Russia. Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk, Odessa were not part of
Ukraine in Czarist times, they were transferred in 1920. Why? God knows. Then for various reasons these areas
were gone, and the people stayed there - we need to encourage them to find a solution." More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIGB2fac">here</a>. 
 Good Thursday morning to you. I'm Dan Lamothe, and
I've got one more day churning out your morning Situation Report newsletter along with Nathaniel Sobel while
Gordon Lubold is away. I'll try to keep the knock-knock jokes to a minimum, but no promises. If you have
anything you'd like to share with our newsletter, please email me at <a style="color:#000066;"
href="mailto:dan.lamothe@foreignpolicy.com">dan.lamothe@foreignpolicy.com</a>. And if you'd like to sign up to
receive Situation Report, send Gordon a note at <a style="color:#000066;"
href="mailto:gordon.lubold@foreignpolicy.com">gordon.lubold@foreignpolicy.com</a> and he'll add you on our
growing distribution list. Like what you see? Tell a friend. And if you
have a report you want teased, a piece of news, or a good tidbit, send it to us
early for maximum tease, because if you see something, we hope you'll say something
-- to Situation Report. And one more thing: Please consider following us at @DanLamothe, @glubold, and @njsobe4.
 Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel hosts Poland's minister
of defense, Tomasz Siemoniak, at the Pentagon this morning. They'll follow with a bi-lateral meeting,
with a news conference to follow at 10:45 a.m, Pentagon officials say. It goes without saying that Poland is
keenly interested in the Ukraine crisis, given Russia's proximity to their own borders. Poland wants boots on the ground. That from Defense
News' Marcus Weisgerber: "Poland's defense minister is calling for a larger US and NATO military presence in
his country to deter the type of Russian aggression occurring in eastern Ukraine. Tomasz Siemoniak is scheduled
to meet with US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Thursday to discuss ways the US military could partner more
with Poland at a time when Russia flexes its military muscles on the Crimean Peninsula and near Ukraine. 'In the
longer-term perspective, what we would like to see very much in Poland is the development of NATO and American
infrastructure and an increasing military presence of both the US and NATO in our country,' Siemoniak told
Defense News in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. During his visit to Washington, Siemoniak said he will
focus on the 'long-term consequences' of Moscow's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and the build-up of Russian
troops on Ukraine's eastern border." More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIHB9ddf">here.</a> NATO's chief wants more
planes, ships in response to Russia's moves on Ukraine. From the WSJ's Naftali Bendavid: "The
North Atlantic Treaty Organization said it would increase its flights over allied Baltic nations and send ships
to the Mediterranean and Baltic seas in response to what it called Russia's threat to Ukraine. NATO will also
dispatch military personnel to intensify training and exercises in NATO countries in Eastern Europe, Secretary-
General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said after a meeting of representatives from the alliance's 28 members in
Brussels. 'We will have more planes in the air, more ships in the water, and more readiness on the land,' Mr.
Rasmussen said on Wednesday. 'More will follow, if needed, in the weeks and months to come.' Germany has already
committed to lead mine-sweeping maneuvers in the Baltic Sea and to contribute six Eurofighter jets to NATO's
efforts in the Baltics, the Defense Ministry confirmed in Berlin. The moves are part of a swing by NATO - which
officials say they hope will be temporary - from viewing Russia as a partner to treating it as an adversary
following its recent incursion into Ukraine and subsequent annexation of the Crimean peninsula. More broadly,
NATO leaders say it is clear the rules of the game have changed in Europe now that a country has used military
force to change international borders for the first time in years. Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's military
commander, said the new measures are designed to last at least until the end of the year." More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIIB5d80">here.</a> The Syrian Army has regained
critical territory from armed rebels - but parts of the country may be irretrievable. That from
the Christian Science Monitor's Nicholas Blanford: "A slew of battlefield successes by the Syrian Army and
its allies has prompted upbeat assessments from President Bashar al-Assad that his forces are headed for victory
in the war against his rebel opponents. Mr. Assad predicted on Monday that the major battles could be over by
the end of the year, while his ally, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that the Syrian leader no
longer faced the risk of being overthrown. "This is a turning point in the crisis, both militarily in terms of
the Army's achievements in the war against terror, and socially in terms of national reconciliation processes
and growing awareness of the truth behind the [attacks] targeting our country," Assad said. It's not that simple, though. More from the
Monitor: "But a regime victory is unlikely to look anything like pre-war
Syria. With vast tracts of northern and eastern Syria remaining in the hands of rebel groups, "winning" could
simply mean retaking and holding parts of western Syria that are vital to the regime's survival. In the past
year, the Syrian Army, supported by Shiite fighters from Hezbollah and Iraq and backed by Russia and Iran, has
concentrated its efforts on ousting rebels from Damascus and imposing control on the critical corridor that
connects the Syrian capital to the Mediterranean coast, the heartland of the Alawites, a Shiite splinter sect to
which Assad belongs. "The regime's hold on the area not only protects Assad in Damascus; it also safeguards the
crucial arms supply route from the Syrian military bases, where weapons are stored, to Hezbollah in Lebanon. More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U08AzMPo6ClybbrJBe9a5">here.</a> Expect 2015 to look even
worse in Syria than 2014. Nicholas Seeley, writing for Foreign Policy: "In late March, a Syrian
refugee dramatically set herself on fire in front of the office of the U.N. Refugee Agency, UNHCR, in the
embattled Lebanese city of Tripoli. Only a few days later, Lebanon hit the grim milestone of its millionth
Syrian refugee. Soon after, in Jordan, as the U.N. was preparing to open a massive new refugee camp, a riot
swept through the country's existing camp, leaving one Syrian dead and dozens of refugees and police officers
injured. These violent events have grabbed headlines, but refugee experts say they are most likely isolated
incidents. The real danger signs about the future of the Syrian refugee crisis are more widespread and
entrenched: Both Lebanon and Jordan are struggling to deal with huge populations of Syrians, and international
funding isn't keeping up with their needs. At the same time, the ongoing devastation of Syria is generating a
seemingly endless supply of new people seeking refuge. "The crisis, as it
is being handled now, is unsustainable -- and unless something drastically changes, it's only going to
get worse. 'We'll probably get through this year,' says Andrew Harper, the head of UNHCR in Jordan. 'But then
how are we going to go through 2015? And if we struggle through 2015, how are we going to go in 2016 and
beyond?' Jordan currently hosts about 600,000 refugees, in a country whose pre-crisis population was estimated
at barely over six million. About 100,000 of the refugees live in the massive Zaatari camp, which is run by the
UNHCR and other humanitarian agencies, with international funding. The other half a million are dispersed among
cities, towns, and rural areas. The U.N. also provides some assistance to these 'urban refugees,' but much of
the cost falls on the government, through public services and subsidized goods. These refugees also put strains
on local communities, which are facing rising prices, falling wages, and increasingly overcrowded public
services." Full story <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIJB8b82">here.</a> Meanwhile, the number of
foreign fighters in Syria has increased tenfold. That, according to Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of U.S.
Central Command. Defense One's Kevin Baron, reporting from Tampa: "Critics have hammered Obama for not
intervening militarily sooner, but the top U.S. general in charge of the region said on Wednesday that Syria is
the most formidable problem he's faced in nearly 40 years. In just the past year, the U.S. military no longer is
tracking a two-sided war visible from space that fueled Odierno's previous prediction. Now, commanders are
deciphering a multi-fronted spider's web of fighters more than battlefield maneuvers. 'We've gone from tracking
large formations of opposing forces to networks of enemy, which is much more challenging, to almost individuals,
which is enormously challenging for our intel community,' U.S. Central Command's Gen. Lloyd Austin said during a
keynote address to the intelligence satellite and mapping community at the United States Geospatial Intelligence
Foundation's GEOINT conference. And 'unless you have done that' kind of detailed manhunt work, he said, 'you
don't understand it."' "Austin, the final commander
of the Iraq War, said the threat of foreign fighters and extremists is very real. 'It is a credible
threat," he said. 'As I look at the Syria problem, I gotta tell you that this is the most complex problem I've
seen in the short, almost 39 years that I've been doing this. If you kind of look at the elements of the
problem, there's chemical weapons involved, there's significant proxy activity ongoing in that country, there's
sectarian issues, and, if you took one of those things on its own, it would make for a very complicated set of
affairs, or issue. But if you combine all of that, then it makes it really, really tough. And you layer on top
of that this issue of extremist activity that we've seen grow in that country - it's very concerning.' More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIKB7724">here</a>. 
 The White House confirms that Syrian opposition
fighters now have U.S.-made TOW antitank missiles. From the Washington Post's Karen DeYoung:
"Syria's opposition fighters have been supplied with U.S.-made antitank missiles, the first time a major
American weapons system has appeared in rebel hands. It is unclear how the rebels obtained the wire-guided
missiles, which are capable of penetrating heavy armor and fortifications and are standard in the U.S. military
arsenal. The United States has sold them in the past to Turkey, among other countries, and the Pentagon approved
the sale of 15,000 of the weapons to Saudi Arabia in December. Both countries aid Syrian opposition groups. U.S.
officials declined to discuss the origin of the weapons but did not dispute that the rebels have them. Their
appearance in Syria coincides with a U.S. commitment this year to escalate a CIA-run program to supply and train
vetted 'moderate' rebel groups and to improve coordination with other opposition backers. 'The United States is
committed to building the capacity of the moderate opposition, including through the provision of assistance to
vetted members of the moderate armed opposition,' said National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan.
'As we have said, we are not going to detail every single type of our assistance.' Videos showing rebels using
the weapons were first uploaded to YouTube between April 1 and 5 by Harakat Hazm, a moderate insurgent splinter
group, according to Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, who was among the first to
identify the so-called TOW ('Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided') antitank missiles." here.</a> For the record: 
Check out FP's Shane Harris, writing about those YouTube videos earlier this month <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0ProeYQEl8BeoiRB694f">here</a>. Hagel wants a
broad review of the military justice system. From Military Times' Pentagon correspondent, Andrew
Tilghman: "The Pentagon is launching a 'systemic' review of the entire military justice system that will
look at how commanders convene courts-martial and impose nonjudicial punishments. The 18-month review of the
Uniform Code of Military Justice 'will help ensure the continued effectiveness of our armed forces and the fair
administration of justice for our service members,' Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said in a statement. The aim
of the review is to 'provide both a step-back look at ways to improve how the UCMJ operates and a close
technical scrub to address any discontinuity after decades of individual amendments,' according to the
announcement. The review comes at a time of increasing concern among Pentagon leaders about sexual assault
specifically and broader misconduct across the force after years of war. The Pentagon also is under pressure
from Congress to reform the UCMJ in fundamental ways. In March, the Senate narrowly rejected a bill that would
have stripped commanders of their authority to oversee courts-martial of major crimes and instead transfer that
mission to a new military prosecutor's office." More <a style="color:#000066;"
href="http://link.foreignpolicy.com/5256a08dc16bcfa46f76bda51jasn.14f8/U0_JeOYQllJ3KXIMB3a1f">here.</a> The Pentagon has offered to
help with South Korea's shipwreck disaster, but time is already running out to find survivors. My story
for FP: "The USS Bonhomme Richard is steaming toward the site of the South Korean passenger ship Sewol,
which sank roughly 60 miles offshore after running aground in shallow water Wednesday morning, authorities said.
The emergency has sparked a scramble to save as many of the 450 people who were on board as possible. At least
four are dead and some 284 passengers -- many of the children -- remain unaccounted for, raising fears that they
may be trapped below the Sewol's deck as it takes on water. The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps could launch a
variety of helicopters to respond to the deadly ferry disaster off the southern tip of South Korea, using the
Bonhomme Richard, a 40,000-ton warship, as a base from which to help in the crisis, U.S. military officials said
Wednesday. But with hypothermia a significant threat to stranded passengers, there is a tight window of time in
which survivors may be saved. Frigid temperatures make it unlikely that passengers could survive long in the
water, said Christopher Harmer, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War and former Navy helicopter
pilot. The water in the area where the ship sank is about 54 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning hypothermia will set in
quickly for wet passengers still trapped on the ship, and even more swiftly for anyone floating nearby." here.</a> 




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