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Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety

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Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian

Traffic Safety
a b c
Shakil Mohammad Rifaat , Richard Tay & Alexandre de Barros
a
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Islamic
University of Technology, OIC, Board Bazar, Gazipur, -1704,
Bangladesh
b
Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, La Trobe University,
Australia
c
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary,
Alberta, Canada

Available online: 30 May 2012

To cite this article: Shakil Mohammad Rifaat, Richard Tay & Alexandre de Barros (2012): Urban
Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety, Journal of Urban Design, 17:3, 337-352

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 Journal of Urban Design, Vol. 17. No. 3, 337–352, August 2012

Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety

SHAKIL MOHAMMAD RIFAAT*, RICHARD TAY** &

ALEXANDRE DE BARROS†
*Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, OIC,
Board Bazar, Gazipur -1704, Bangladesh; **Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, La Trobe
University, Australia; †Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta,
Canada

ABSTRACT This study examined the effect of different urban street patterns on vehicle-
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pedestrian crash severity. Pedestrian crash data for the City of Calgary for the years
2003 –2005 were used to estimate a partially constrained generalized ordered logit model.
Besides street pattern, many variables related to drivers, road, environment and traffic
characteristics were used as control variables. The results indicated that currently popular
urban street patterns, like loops and lollipops design, were found to be associated with higher
pedestrian crash severity, when compared to the traditional gridiron pattern.

Introduction
In the North American planning history, street network design could be divided
into two major phases (Wolfe, 1987). Early planners in the United States relied
upon the grid pattern to provide spatial coherence to rapidly growing cities along
the east coast, influenced in part by urban design considerations borrowed from
Europe and by land reform in the post-Revolutionary United States (Wolfe, 1987).
This street pattern organized the distribution of urban land in order to simplify
real estate speculation and rationalize the transportation networks (Moudon &
Untermann, 1987). In the past, the main purpose of urban streets was to serve as
thoroughfares for carrying people and goods from one place to another in a quick,
safe and reliable way. Since the gridiron street pattern satisfied these requirements
very well, it had been the predominant form in many urban areas for a long time
(Southworth & Parthasarathy, 1996).
Although the second phase of street network design began after World War II,
the ideas that initiated the change emerged many decades earlier. The Garden City
movement at the end of the 19th century led to a rediscovery of the street system
as a crucial design element and instigated a movement away from the grid toward
a new pattern and scale of streets that would improve safety and increase light, air
and the sense of nature in suburban communities (Wolfe, 1987). It emphasized
street hierarchy, curvilinear design and disconnected networks (Wolfe, 1987) and
Correspondence Address: Richard Tay, Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, La Trobe
University, Melbourne 3086, Australia. Email: r.tay@latrobe.edu.au

1357-4809 Print/1469-9664 Online/12/030337-16 q 2012 Taylor & Francis

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2012.683398
 338 S. M Rifaat et al.

became the predominant street pattern used for developing suburban areas in
North America in the last 50 years (Southworth & Ben-Joseph, 2003).
However, increasing concerns over social connectivity, physical activities and
health, and sustainability of urban transportation has again recently ignited
debate on the most suitable form for urban development (Hebbert, 2005; Hess,
2009). The curvilinear, disconnected street network design philosophy has
resulted in the creation of a set of physical barriers for movement across and
between neighbourhoods and different parts of the city. The separation of
neighbourhoods by arterials creates islands for local residents, in effect walling
them off and making travel across neighbourhood boundaries on foot or by
bicycle dangerous (Untermann, 1987). Further, as the number of automobiles has
increased significantly, the car has come to dominate even the internal residential
streets, also to the detriment of cyclists and pedestrians (Wolfe, 1987).
For these reasons, there has been a continuing debate among transportation
engineers and urban planners regarding which type of street pattern should be
recommended, particularly for new and developing communities. While the
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social benefits and drawbacks of different types of street patterns and urban forms
have been discussed extensively in the literature (Camagni et al., 2002; Talen,
2006), little attention has been devoted so far to the traffic safety evaluation of
these street designs. One of the main challenges facing the transportation sector in
recent years is the development of a sustainable transportation system that is safe,
efficient and environmentally friendly. As part of the movement towards a more
sustainable system, many transportation engineers and planners are employing
designs and policies that encourage the use of non-motorized modes such as
cycling and walking.
However, there are concerns in some heavily motorized countries, especially
in North America, about their implications for traffic safety. Cyclists and
pedestrians are considered as vulnerable road users in the field of traffic safety
because of their relatively smaller mass and lack of protection in the event of a
collision with a motor vehicle. For example, crash statistics for the years 2002 –
2006 in Canada showed that pedestrian fatalities accounted for about 13% of the
total fatalities in traffic collisions (Transport Canada, 2006). In the Province of
Alberta alone, 39pedestrians were killed and 1307 were injured in 2006 (Alberta
Transportation, 2006). Within the City of Calgary, only 7.4% of the vehicle-vehicle
collisions on local roads resulted in injuries (Rifaat & Tay, 2009) whereas 84.8% of
the pedestrian-vehicle collisions on local roads resulted in deaths or serious
injuries. Hence, transportation engineers and planners need to be mindful of the
injuries a vehicle can cause to a pedestrian in a collision, and any policy or
programme to encourage a modal shift towards these more sustainable modes has
to be accompanied by complementary programmes to improve the safety of these
vulnerable road users.

Objective and Scope of Study

The objective of the study is to understand how different urban street patterns
affect the severity of pedestrian-involved road traffic accidents, which has thus far
received relatively little attention in the literature.
Besides street pattern, other factors related to road features, driver attributes,
crash characteristics, environmental conditions and vehicle attributes will also be
explored. Calgary is chosen as representative of a growing city due to the economic
 Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety 339

boom in the oil and gas sector. To accommodate the increased population, the city
is expanding laterally and many new communities are being built. Therefore,
evidence on the effects of different neighbourhood designs and street patterns on
traffic safety is needed to help policy makers, developers and residents make
informed choices.
To provide more background to the study, a brief summary of some of the
relevant literature will be provided in the next section, followed by a description
of the methodology used in this study. The results of the models estimated will
then be presented and discussed; the final section will summarize the main
findings and provide some recommendations.

Literature Review
Types of Street Patterns
Several approaches are used in the literature to classify the street pattern in an
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urban area. One common approach is based on the concept of macroscopic and
microscopic street networks developed by Marshall (2005). The Macro-level or
Citywide Street network distinguishes streets that are generally continuous over
a substantial portion of the city and probably service travel from one part of the
city to another and, in many cases, trips to or from the city. The Micro-level or
Neighbourhood Street network generally serves residential neighbourhood travel
because these streets are on routes that are not continuous over a significant
portion of the city. Marshall (2005) then combines the four types of Citywide Street
network types (linear, tributary, radial, and grid) with the two types of
Neighbourhood Street network (tree and grid) to describe the street hierarchy in
a city (Marshall & Garrick, 2010, 2011)
Another common approach focuses directly on the overall street pattern in a
community instead of focusing on the different types of streets and then combining
the different types of streets to form a pattern. For example, Southworth & Ben-
Joseph (2003) classified street patterns into five categories: gridiron, fragmented
parallel, wrapped parallel, loops and lollipops, and lollipops on a stick. Their
classification is shown in Figure 1. Since this approach forms the basis for the
classification scheme adopted in this study, a brief description of each will be
presented.
The grid pattern is a simple system of two series of parallel streets crossing at
right angles to form a pattern of rectangular blocks. This pattern has more land
devoted to streets, as well as more blocks, intersections and points of access than
the other four patterns. Although the grid pattern increases infrastructure costs,

Figure 1. Types of street patterns. Source: Southworth & Ben-Joseph (2003).

 340 S. M Rifaat et al.

it offers the shortest trip lengths and the largest number of route choices. It also
creates the most walkable neighbourhood (Southworth & Owens, 1993).
The fragmented parallel pattern has blocks that are reconfigured into long,
narrow rectangles and L-shapes. Although this pattern has almost equal street
length as the grid, it reduces the number of blocks and access points as well as
interconnectivity and choice of routes. The movement from the traditional grid to
fragmented parallel pattern since the 1950s reveals the diminishing value of
pedestrian access and growing focus on automobiles (Southworth & Owens, 1993).
The warped parallel pattern comprises curvy streets in long, narrow blocks,
T intersections and L corners. Relative to the fragmented parallel pattern, it
restricts the visual length of the street. The transition to an automobile subdivision
becomes more pronounced in this pattern, with significant reductions in
intersections, street lengths, blocks and access points (Southworth & Owens, 1993).
The loops and lollipops pattern is characterized by the presence of loops and
cul-de-sacs. Loops and lollipops create a non-directional pattern of streets that
tend to loop back on themselves. Interconnection is limited to several through
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streets not readily apparent in the plan. As this pattern has limited route choices
and few access points, it creates quiet streets that are relatively safe for children. It
also limits pedestrian access and increases auto trips but concentrates them on the
few existing arterials (Southworth & Owens, 1993).
The lollipop on a stick street pattern is formed by branching off dead end cul-
de-sacs from a few easily recognized through streets. It maximizes privacy but
limits intersections, route choices and access points substantially. This limited
access design maximizes the number of house lots on short dead-end streets and
hampers pedestrian movement to a great extent (Southworth & Owens, 1993).

Pedestrian-Vehicle Collisions
The factors contributing to motor vehicle collisions are numerous, including road
design (road width, horizontal and vertical alignment, etc.), traffic control
(signals, stop/yield signs, etc.), traffic characteristics (volume, speed, etc.), vehicle
features (size, airbag, etc), social norms (transport mode preferences, safety
culture, etc), enforcement (speed camera, breath-testing, etc.), neighbourhood
characteristics (urban form, land use, access to public transport, etc.), weather and
environmental factors (night, lighting, visibility, rain, snow, fog, etc.) and driver
behaviours (tailgating, fatigue, speeding, alcohol impaired, etc.). Hence, it is
important to note that all empirical studies, by necessity, have only examined a
partial contribution of selected contributing factors.
Several studies were found in the literature where multiple risks factors
contributing to the frequency and/or severity of pedestrian crashes were identified.
For example, Sze & Wong (2007) evaluated the injury risk of pedestrian casualties in
traffic collisions and found that there was a decreasing trend in pedestrian injury
risk, after controlling for the influences of demographic, road environment and
other risk factors. In another study, Tay et al. (2011) examined the factors contributing
to the severity of pedestrian-vehicle accidents in South Korea and found that relative
to minor crashes, fatal and serious crashes were associated with collisions involving
the following: heavy vehicles; drivers who were drunk, male or under the age of 65;
pedestrians who were over the age of 65; and pedestrians who were hit in the middle
of the road, on high speed roads, in inclement weather conditions, at night, on road
links, in tunnels, on bridges, or on wider roads.
 Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety 341

In addition, a number of studies have examined the influence of pedestrian

characteristics on collision risks, including age (Holubowycz, 1995; Fontaine &
Gourlet, 1997; Oxley et al., 1997; Wazana et al., 2000; Al-Ghamdi, 2002; Graham
et al., 2005), race (Ryb et al., 2007), marital status (Ryb et al., 2007), unemployment
and income (Ryb et al., 2007), alcohol or drug use (Holubowycs, 1995; Miles-Dian,
1996; Ostrom & Eriksson, 2001; Ryb et al., 2007), and distraction (Nasar, 2008).
Beside road user attributes, vehicle characteristics and conditions, such as
vehicle types and movements, had been found to be closely associated with
pedestrian collisions. Compared to passenger cars, collisions with heavier
vehicles like trucks, vans and sports utility vehicles often resulted in higher
fatality risks (Ballesteros et al., 2004; Lefler & Gabler, 2004; Martinez & Porter, 2004;
Roudsari et al., 2004). Moreover, Preusser et al. (2003) found that turning vehicles
often collided with pedestrians because drivers failed to yield the right of way at
intersections.
In terms of road geometric and traffic characteristics, Anderson et al. (1997)
observed that when the speed limit was reduced, the number of fatal pedestrian
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collisions was also reduced. A strong relationship was also found between collision
severity and speed. Garder (2004) found that high speed roadways and wide roads
led to more collisions and that the focus of safety improvement should be on
arterials and major collectors. In addition, Bowman et al. (1994) demonstrated that
different types of medians had different effects on pedestrian collisions because
different road medians or barriers had different abilities to block vehicle
interactions in different directions and provide safe refuge areas for pedestrians.
With respect to urban forms and land use, LaScala et al. (2000) observed that
injuries in pedestrian collisions were greater in the areas with higher population
density, annual average daily traffic (AADT), and number of cross-streets per
kilometre of roadway. In contrast, Garber & Lienau (1996) reported that the fatality
rates of pedestrian collisions in rural areas with lower population density were
higher than the fatality rates in urban areas. Similarly, Zajac & Ivan (2003) found
that pedestrian injury severity was higher in villages and downtown fringe areas
than downtown and low-to-medium density commercial areas. Marshall &
Garrick (2011) found that denser street networks with higher intersection counts
per area were associated with fewer crashes across all severity levels. Conversely,
increased street connectivity as well as additional travel lanes along the major
streets correlated with more crashes. However, Marshall & Garrick (2010) found
that the highest risk of fatal or severe crashes occurred with very low street network
density, and safety outcomes improved as the intersection density increased.
The mixed results on the safety effects of urban form obtained thus far are not
surprising. Note that several characteristics are often used to capture urban form,
including street density, length of roads, number of intersections, number of access
points, number of loops and cul-de-sacs, etc. However, two neighbourhoods may
have many of these features in common but still have a different layout or pattern.
For example, a neighbourhood with a fragmented parallel pattern may have
approximately the same amount of roads, intersections, etc. as another neighbour-
hood with a warped parallel design. Nevertheless, the orientation of the pattern may
still play a vital role in determining crash occurrences, all else being equal.
In a recent study, Rifaat & Tay (2009) explored the effect of street pattern on
injury risk in two vehicle crashes using data from the City of Calgary. They
classified street pattern into four categories: gridiron, warped parallel, loops and
lollipops and mixed patterns. Their study found that limited access designs, such
 342 S. M Rifaat et al.

as the loops and lollipops street pattern, decreased the injury risk of crashes
involving two vehicles when compared to the traditional grid design. In two
related studies, Rifaat et al. (2009, 2010) found that limited access designs were
associated with fewer motor vehicle crashes.
Overall, the above studies suggested that limited access designs seemed to
improve traffic safety, at least from a vehicle occupant perspective. However, these
studies did not examine the effect of street pattern on vehicle-pedestrian collisions
which would have very different collision dynamics. Nevertheless, it could be
concluded that in addition to site-specific variables (street density, number of
intersection, etc.), neighbourhood street pattern and other more generic characte-
ristics would be important variables to consider when examining the effect of
different urban forms and designs on transportation and health issues in general
and traffic safety in particular.

Methodology
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Data
The primary database used in this study was the official traffic collision database
maintained by Alberta Transportation. Note that information regarding any crash
in Calgary would first be collected by the Calgary Police, compiled by the City of
Calgary and then forwarded to Alberta Transportation. This collision database
included information on the date of occurrence, day of week, time, location, driver
age, gender, total number injured in collision, total number killed in collision,
hit-and-run, collision type, vehicle manoeuvre during crashes, special reference
location description, intersection type, collision severity, road class, traffic control
devices as well as road, lighting and environmental conditions.
Vehicle-pedestrian crash data for the years 2003 –2005 occurring in the City of
Calgary were extracted from the official crash database. During the study period,
1481 crashes involving at least one pedestrian were reported to have occurred on
local streets in the Calgary communities. Note that crashes on arterials were
not considered since most of them formed the community boundaries. Moreover,
the focus of the study was to identify the effect of street pattern within a local
community area which consisted mainly of local and collector roads. Although the
exclusion of these crashes may have an effect on the overall safety performance of
different street patterns due to the tendency of limited access patterns to
concentrate more traffic on arterials, the effect of exposure (traffic volume) could
be assumed to affect mainly the likelihood of a crash and not the severity of a crash
(Kim et al. 2007; Rifaat & Tay, 2009).
Of the 1481 pedestrian crashes, 2.50% were classified as fatal crashes, 84.80%
were classified as injury crashes and the rest were classified as property damage
only (PDO) crashes. The severity of a crash was determined by the person with the
most severe injury sustained. Hence, a crash was considered as fatal if at least one
person died within 30 days of a collision. A crash was considered to be an injury
crash if at least one person was injured. Finally, a property damage crash was
defined as a crash associated with no injury but only damage to the vehicles or
other properties and the damage was over $1000.
These crashes were then mapped onto the 227 community areas in the City of
Calgary using Arc View 3.2. These community areas were defined by the 2001
Census of Canada. In addition to mapping the crashes, Arc View 3.2 was also used
 Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety 343

to compile other spatial attributes such as streets, schools, liquor stations and train
stations in each community. These data were obtained from the City of Calgary’s
Land Information and Mapping database. The GIS road network database was
used to obtain different road infrastructure features such as length of different
types of roads (i.e. collector, local, ramp, service road etc.), number of inter-
sections, etc. The length of each class of road and the number of intersections were
then calculated for each community.
In addition, different land use features were used as control variables in the
study. Each neighbourhood was classified as either community (residential) or
industrial (commercial) by the City of Calgary and according to its classification, 39
neighbourhoods had an industrial index and the remaining 188 had a community
index. In addition, data about the number of schools in each community were
collected from the interactive map (eMaps) maintained by The City of Calgary. The
number of liquor stores and gas stations in each community were extracted by geo-
coding their addresses to the road map and community map of Calgary. The
location of LRT stations were identified from the Calgary Transit Map and their
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presence in the community areas or neighbourhoods were then recorded. A more

detailed description of the data sources can be found in Rifaat & Tay (2009) and
Rifaat et al. (2009).

Statistical Models
Since data on the severity of crashes were discrete or categorical in nature,
researchers used a variety of discrete response models. As crash severity was also
ordinal in nature, many researchers had chosen to use the ordered probit or logit
model to study injury severity because these models yielded estimates that were
consistent and efficient (Kockelman & Kweon, 2002; Abdel-Aty & Keller, 2005;
Lee & Abdel-Aty, 2005; Tay & Rifaat, 2007; Barua & Tay, 2009). However, an
assumption in the ordered logit model (OLM), called the parallel-lines assumption
or proportional odds assumption, constrained the regression parameters to be the
same for different severity levels (Long, 1997). In the context of road safety, some
researchers considered it too arbitrary to assume that coefficients of OLM would be
the same except for the cut-off points (Shankar & Mannering, 1996; Quddus et al.,
2009).
To overcome this problem, some researchers had chosen to use a non-ordered
response model, such as the multinomial logistic regression (MNL) model
(Shankar & Mannering, 1996; Chang & Mannering, 1998; Tay et al. 2011). However,
it should be noted that the MNL model would have far more parameters than the
parallel-lines model (in this case, there are m-1 coefficients for every explanatory
variable, instead of only one in OLM), and hence it would greatly increase the data
requirement and the complexity of estimation. Furthermore, the interpretation of
the results would not be as simple or straightforward as the OLM case.
An alternate solution would be to employ a generalized ordered logit model
(GOLM) which would not impose the constraint of parallel regressions (Fu, 1998;
Quddus et al., 2009). Considering that the assumption might be violated by only
one or a few of the included variables, Peterson & Harrell (1990) proposed a
partial proportional odds model or partially constrained generalized ordered logit
model (PCGOLM), where the parallel-lines constraint would be relaxed only for
those variables that violated this assumption (Williams, 2006a,b). This model was
used in a recent study by Wang & Abdel-Aty (2008) to investigate the left-turn
 344 S. M Rifaat et al.

crash injury severity at intersections and by Quddus et al. (2009) to investigate the
impact of traffic congestion on crash severity.
In this study, the PCGOLM model was estimated using STATA version 11. To
check whether the variables used in the analysis violated the proportional odds
assumption, a series of Wald tests were performed using another user-written
STATA routine ologit2 developed by Williams (2006a,b). In addition, since the
signs of the estimated coefficients would not determine the direction of the effect
on intermediate outcomes, the marginal effects of the variables would also be
computed for ease of comparison and interpretation.

Classification of Street Patterns

The main independent variable of interest was the street pattern in each community
which was classified using a scheme developed by Rifaat & Tay (2009) and Rifaat
et al. (2009), who had adapted it from a similar scheme developed by Southworth &
Ben-Joseph (2003). The community areas defined by the 2001 Census of Canada
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were used as the basic unit of analysis for street patterns. This unit was chosen
because of the availability of the socio-demographic data from the Census as well as
the ability to identify crashes occurring in each community area using police reports.
However, since the community areas or wards were not demarcated based on the
street pattern contained within, it created some minor problems in the classification
because there may be different street patterns contained within a community area.
The street maps of different community areas defined by the Census were
extracted from the street directory for the City of Calgary. Based on the street maps,
the research team first classified the street pattern of each unit using the classifi-
cation scheme shown in Figure 1. It was found that there were very few units with
fragmented parallel pattern and this category was merged with gridiron pattern
since it contained mainly straight roadways. In addition, the two street patterns
with the lollipop designs were merged into one to simplify the classification
scheme. Finally, a separate category called mixed pattern was created to allow for
community areas with mixed designs. An example of a community in each of the
four categories is shown in Figure 2.
Of the 227 community areas, 46 were classified as gridiron, 55 were wrapped
parallel, 87 were loops and lollipops and the remaining 39 were mixed pattern. To
check the reliability of the classification, the procedure was repeated using a sample
of 23 transportation engineering students at the university. The classification
produced by the sample matched those produced by the research team. If a crash
occurred in a given community, the street pattern of the community was then used
to capture its effect on the crash outcome.

Control Variables
The severity of a crash was assumed to be influenced by various factors related to
the characteristics of the crash, road, environment, vehicle and driver. Pre-selection
of these factors were accomplished mainly by following previous research work
where these factors had been explored. However, some local factors, thought to
have an influence on the severity of crashes, were also examined. It should be noted
that some important factors, such as speed limit, point of impact, road width,
median width, shoulder width, drivers’ action, vehicle year, pedestrian age and sex,
province of license, etc., identified as having significant effects on vehicle-pedestrian
 Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety 345
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Figure 2. Examples of road patterns in Calgary (a)Community: Downtown Commercial Street pattern:
Grid-Iron (b) Community: Fairview Street pattern: Warped Parallel (c) Community: Strathcona Park
Street pattern: Loops and lollipops (d) Community: Abbeydale Street pattern: Mixed

crashes in previous studies, were not examined here because these data were
unavailable.
Note that one factor that had been widely used in the literature, AADT, was
not readily available in this study. Although AADT data were available for major
roadways in the city, they were not available for local roads within the community.
The traffic volume for each community was then estimated using the models
provided by the Trip Generation Manual published by Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE, 2003). These models used community characteristics, such as the
numbers and the types of dwelling units in residential communities and land area
in industrial communities, to estimate the average number of vehicle trips.
Preliminary analyses found that the effect of estimated AADT was insignificant,
and thus was discarded from the final model. This finding was expected because
traffic volume would theoretically have more effect on crash occurrence rather
than crash severity (Kim et al., 2007; Rifaat & Tay, 2009). The severity of a vehicle-
pedestrian crash would be determined mainly by the collision dynamics involved
when a crash occurred (mass and speed of the vehicle, the contact point and
direction of force, and the attributes of the pedestrian) and access to emergency
services after the crash had occurred.
In addition, another variable that had been widely used in the literature for
crash severity analyses, posted speed limit, was also omitted from the model. Since
the focus of this study is on the severity of crashes on local roads and the posted
speed limit in all local roads in the city is 50 km/h, except at specially designated
areas such as school and playground zones (Kattan et al., 2011), its omission is not
expected to have any significant effect on the model. Moreover, Kim et al. (2007)
found that the omission of speed limit did not have any significant effect.
 346 S. M Rifaat et al.

Following these considerations, 19 factors were selected for investigation.

After some preliminary analyses, 10 factors were found to be insignificant and
excluded in the final model. The insignificant variables excluded were lighting
condition, traffic control condition, pedestrian action, year of occurrence, season of
year, day of week, time of day, road alignment, road class and hit and run. The
descriptions of the nine factors included in the final model are shown in Table 1
together with their summary statistics. Most of the variables are self-explanatory
and simply indicate the presence or absence of the factor during the crash. It should

Table 1. Variables used in the models

Variables Description Mean Std. dev

Street pattern
Gridiron 1 ¼ gridiron; otherwise ¼ 0 0.350 0.477
Warped Parallel 1 ¼ warped parallel; otherwise ¼ 0 0.195 0.397
Loops and Lollipops 1 ¼ loops and lollipops; otherwise ¼ 0 0.247 0.431
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Mixed 1 ¼ mixed; otherwise ¼ 0 0.208 0.406

Driver age in years
Age 0 –24 1 ¼ age 0–24; otherwise ¼ 0 0.391 0.488
Age 25 –44 1 ¼ age 25–44; otherwise ¼ 0 0.319 0.466
Age 45 –69 1 ¼ age 45–69; otherwise ¼ 0 0.233 0.423
Age 70 and above 1 ¼ age 70 and above; otherwise ¼ 0 0.057 0.232
Driver sex
Male 1 ¼ male; otherwise ¼ 0 0.572 0.495
Driver condition
Normal 1 ¼ normal; otherwise ¼ 0 0.711 0.453
Alcohol impaired 1 ¼ impaired by alcohol; otherwise ¼ 0 0.093 0.291
Other 1 ¼ other; otherwise ¼ 0 0.196 0.397
Traffic control device
None present 1 ¼ none present; otherwise ¼ 0 0.493 0.500
Traffic signal/lights 1 ¼ traffic signal/lights; otherwise ¼ 0 0.221 0.415
Stop sign 1 ¼ stop sign; otherwise ¼ 0 0.017 0.128
Pedestrian crosswalk 1 ¼ pedestrian crosswalk; otherwise ¼ 0 0.216 0.412
Other control device 1 ¼ other control device; otherwise ¼ 0 0.054 0.226
Environmental condition
Clear 1 ¼ clear; otherwise ¼ 0 0.865 0.342
Raining/hail/snow 1 ¼ raining/hail/snow; otherwise ¼ 0 0.077 0.267
Fog/smog/smoke/dust 1 ¼ fog/smog/smoke/dust; otherwise ¼ 0 0.003 0.052
High wind 1 ¼ high wind; otherwise ¼ 0 0.001 0.037
Other 1 ¼ other; otherwise ¼ 0 0.054 0.225
Road surface condition
Dry 1 ¼ dry; otherwise ¼ 0 0.747 0.435
Wet 1 ¼ wet; otherwise ¼ 0 0.093 0.290
Slush/snow/ice 1 ¼ slush/snow/ice; otherwise ¼ 0 0.108 0.311
Loose material 1 ¼ loose material; otherwise ¼ 0 0.005 0.073
Other 1 ¼ other; otherwise ¼ 0 0.047 0.211
Collision location
Non-intersection 1 ¼ non-intersection; otherwise ¼ 0 0.328 0.470
Intersection 1 ¼ intersection; otherwise ¼ 0 0.559 0.497
Rail road crossing 1 ¼ rail road crossing; otherwise ¼ 0 0.002 0.049
Others 1 ¼ others; otherwise ¼ 0 0.111 0.314
Special road location
No special location 1 ¼ no special facility; otherwise ¼ 0 0.819 0.385
Driveway/parking lot 1 ¼ driveway/parking lot; otherwise ¼ 0 0.170 0.376
Interchange ramp 1 ¼ interchange ramp; otherwise ¼ 0 0.005 0.069
Other location 1 ¼ other; otherwise ¼ 0 0.006 0.078
 Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety 347

be noted that some observations had missing values for some of the variables.
Hence, the final dataset used in the estimation consisted of only 1000 observations.

Results and Discussion

The estimation results are reported in Table 2. In general, the model fitted the data
very well, with a very large chi-square statistic and very small p-value. For the
ease of comparing the effects of different variables on the outcomes, their marginal
effects were computed and are presented in Table 3. The probabilities of three
different outcomes (PDO, injury and fatal crashes) for the given values of
explanatory variables were obtained using the estimated coefficients and cut
points. From these estimated probabilities, factors that were more likely to change
the probability of a particular level of severity were identified. The model results
were presented in two categories: street pattern which was the main variable of
interest and control variables, which included road characteristics, vehicle
features, environmental condition, crash characteristics and driver attributes. It
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should be stressed that the marginal effects of the variables computed would only

Table 2. Estimation results of pedestrian crash severity models

Variables PDO-injury Injury-fatal

Street pattern (Reference: Grid)

Warped Parallel 20.385
Loops and Lollipops 0.462*
Mixed 0.012
Control variables
Driver age
Age 70 & above 1.343***
Driver sex
Male 20.339*
Driver condition
Alcohol impaired 0.030 1.579***
Traffic control device
Pedestrian crosswalk 0.461*
Environmental condition
Fog/smog/dust 2.656**
Road surface condition
Wet 0.988***
Collision location
Intersection 20.505**
Railroad crossing 22.453*
Other 20.596*
Special road location
Driveway/parking 22.431***
Other 21.495*
Constant 2.548 23.747
Model statistics
No. of observations 1000
Log-likelihood 2434.31
Chi-square 67.61
p –value ,0.0001

Notes: Variables with separate columns represent proportional odds relaxed; combined columns
represent proportional odds imposed.*, ** & *** denote statistically significant at a ¼ 0.10, 0.05 &
0.01 levels.
 348 S. M Rifaat et al.

indicate the expected change in the severity of the outcome given that a crash had
occurred and would not capture their effects on the likelihood of a crash.

Street Pattern
The main objective of the study was to identify the effects of different street
patterns on the severity of pedestrian crashes. Since the street patterns were
captured by categorical variables, one of them had to be used as a reference case
and gridiron was chosen for convenience. The results reported in Table 3 show
that compared to the gridiron pattern, the loops and lollipops type design reduced
the likelihood of property damage only outcome but increased the likelihood of
injury and fatality outcome in the event of a vehicle-pedestrian crash. The
predicted probability of a property damage only outcome was reduced by 3.42 –
3.51% but the corresponding probabilities for an injury outcome was increased by
2.26 –2.45%, and the probability of a fatality outcome was increased by 1.06 – 1.16%
even though the latter change was not statistically significant. In addition, there
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was no statistical difference between gridiron and warped parallel or between

gridiron and mixed street patterns.
Overall, the results indicated that a road network with less connectivity, more
cul-de-sacs and greater presence of loop streets were not safer for pedestrians than
roads with the traditional gridiron pattern. Perhaps the presence of frequent
curves and loops might restrict drivers’ sight distance, resulting in lower
perception and reaction times and the ability to reduce vehicle speed, which might
enhance the possibility of a pedestrian incurring an injury in the event of a crash.
In addition, curvature in roads might cause some difficulties for drivers in terms
of maintaining vehicle stability and manoeuvrability, which also reduced drivers’
ability to decrease their speed in a critical situation. Moreover, the limited access
streets might induce some pedestrians to exercise less caution when using the
roads because they perceived these streets to be safer, a behaviour consistent with
the risk compensation hypothesis (Peltzman, 1975). Fortunately, the speed of

Table 3. Marginal effects of variables in pedestrian crash severity models

Variables PDO Injury Fatal

Street pattern (Reference: Grid)

Warped Parallel 0.0358 20.0288 20.0070
Loops and Lollipops 20.0351* 0.0245** 0.0106
Mixed 20.0010 0.0008 0.0002**
Control variables
Age 70 & above 20.0711*** 0.0205 0.0505*
Male driver 0.0280* 20.0210* 20.0070*
Impaired by alcohol 20.0023 20.0606 0.0630**
Pedestrian crosswalk 20.0353** 0.0249** 0.0105*
Fog/smog/smoke/dust 20.0858*** 20.1235 0.2093
Wet surface 20.0605*** 0.0302*** 0.0303*
Intersection 0.0408** 20.0299** 20.0108*
Railroad crossing 0.4482 20.4292 20.0190***
Other collision location 0.0610 20.0513 20.0097**
Driveway/parking lot 0.4378*** 20.4183*** 20.0195***
Other special location 0.2183 20.2022 20.0161***

Note: *, ** & *** denote statistically significant at a ¼ 0.10, 0.05 & 0.01 levels.
 Urban Street Pattern and Pedestrian Traffic Safety 349

vehicles on local roads would be relatively low and hence the likelihood of fatality
would be relatively low.

Control Variables
With respect to driver characteristics, the study showed that drivers impaired
by alcohol were associated with an increased crash severity, a result that was
consistent with numerous previous studies (Harruff et al., 1998; Ivan et al., 2001;
Elzohairy et al., 2008). Also consistent with previous findings (Dulisse, 1997;
Evans, 2000; Dellinger et al., 2004; Tay, 2006, 2008; Scialfa et al., 2010), the study
showed that elderly drivers (70 years old and above) were associated with a lower
probability of property damage only outcome, but an increase in the probabilities
of injury and fatality outcomes, although the effect on injury was not statistically
significant. Finally, similar to Rifaat & Tay (2009), the study found that male
drivers were associated with an increased likelihood of property damage only
outcome and reduced likelihood of injury and fatality outcomes.
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In contrast to previous findings on weather conditions (Kim et al., 2007; Klop

& Khattak, 1999), the study did not find any relationship between snow/rain with
pedestrian crash severity but it did find a positive association between fog/smog/
smoke/dust and crash severity. Moreover, it was found that compared to a dry
road surface, the injury and fatality risks were significantly higher on wet surfaces,
indicating that visibility and road surface conditions were more important than
weather conditions per se.
In terms of road geometric and traffic characteristics, the results indicated
that the presence of a pedestrian crosswalk at collision locations was associated
with a detrimental effect that enhanced severity, a result that was consistent with
Rifaat & Tay (2009). As expected, vehicle-pedestrian crashes at intersections were
found to be less severe. Finally, crashes on private driveways or parking lots were
found to be associated with lower severity due to the lower speeds in these traffic
environments.

Conclusion
Recent increased concerns about social connectivity and health implications of
different urban forms have re-ignited the debate on the most suitable form for
urban development. In parallel to this change is the increasing demand for the
development of a sustainable transportation system that is safe, efficient and
environmentally friendly, resulting in a push towards the increased use of non-
motorized transportation modes such as walking and cycling. Hence, there is a
need to examine the impact of different urban forms on the safety of pedestrians
and cyclists, especially with respect to the severity outcomes in the event of a
traffic collision.
This study examined the effect of street pattern on vehicle-pedestrian crash
severity. The City of Calgary was selected as the study area and vehicle-pedestrian
crash data for the years 2003 –2005 were used to fit a partially constrained
generalized ordered logit model. The study showed that compared with gridiron,
the loops and lollipops street design was associated with an increase in the severity
of crashes involving pedestrians. Hence, from a pedestrian crash severity
perspective, the traditional grid pattern is the preferred urban form, a result that is
contrary to previous findings (Rifaat & Tay, 2009; Rifaat et al., 2009, 2010) that the
 350 S. M Rifaat et al.

grid pattern is more adverse for vehicle-vehicle crashes because the factors
contributing to the severity of vehicle-pedestrian crashes are significantly different
from those influencing the outcomes of vehicle-vehicle crashes.
Since the traditional grid pattern has more cross streets, crashes between two
vehicles in this type of neighbourhood are more likely to be right angle or side
impact crashes, and these types of crashes tend to be more severe because of the
relatively weaker occupant protection in the event of a side intrusion into the
vehicle.
On the other hand, although the loops and lollipops design had become
popular because they discouraged through traffic, these benefits might be
outweighed in vehicle-pedestrian crashes because this limited access design
would also reduce sight distances, and hence increase impact speed, as well as
induce risk compensation behaviours among pedestrians, which might be
significant in determining the injury outcome in the event of a vehicle-pedestrian
crash. Therefore, more care should be exercised in the design of limited access
neighbourhoods to explicitly consider the safety of pedestrians and provide better
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protection for these vulnerable road users.

As well as street pattern, this study also found that a crash would be more
severe if it occurred on a wet road surface, pedestrian crosswalk and under
adverse weather conditions such as the presence of fog/smog/smoke/dust. Older
drivers, female drivers and alcohol-impaired drivers would also increase the
severity of the outcome in the event of a vehicle-pedestrian crash. Finally, railway
crossings, intersections, private driveways and parking lots were safer from a
pedestrian crash severity perspective. These external influences should be
targeted in future pedestrian safety campaigns.

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