ADDB-Assignment Week 3

Nama : Reviandi Ramadhan (2106803906)

An analyst expects that 10% of all publicly traded companies will experience a decline in earnings next year. The analyst has developed a ratio to help forecast this decline. If the company is headed for a
1 decline, there is a 70% chance that this ratio will be negative. If the company is not headed for a decline, there is only a 20% chance that the ratio will be negative. The analyst randomly selects a
company and its ratio is negative. Based on Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability that the company will experience a decline is

Answer :
0.07
0.25
= 0.28

Romi, a production manager, is trying to improve the efficiency of his assembly line. He knows that the machine is set up correctly only 60% of the time. He also knows that if the machine is set up
2 correctly, it will produce good parts 80% of the time, but if set up incorrectly, it will produce good parts only 20% of the time. Romi starts the machine and produces one part before he begins the
production run. He finds the first part to be good. What is the revised probability that the machine was set up correctly?

Answer :
0.48
0.56
= 0.86

A certain weightlifter is prone to back injury. He finds that he has a 20% chance of hurting his back if he uses the proper form of bending at the hips and keeping his spine locked. The probability that he
3
will hurt his back with bad form is 95%. The probability that he uses proper form is 75%. What is the probability he hurts his back?

Answer : 0.15
0.39
0.39

An investor in Apple is worried the latest management earnings forecast is too aggressive and the company will fall short. His favorite analyst that covers Apple is going to release his report on Apple the
4 week before the earnings announcement. Report stands for the analyst's report, and Forecast stands for the earnings announcement. What is the probability the earnings announcement is below the
forecast?

Prior Probabilities Conditional Probabilities Join Probabilities

P(Good Report) = 0.2 P(Below Forecast | Good Report) = 0.1 P(Below Forecast dan Good Report) = 0.02

P(Medium Report) = 0.5 P(Below Forecast | Medium Report) = 0.4 P(Below Forecast dan Medium Report) = 0.2
P(Bad Report) = 0.3 P(Below Forecast | Bad Report) = 0.9 P(Below Forecast dan Bad Report) = 0.27

Answer : P(Below Forecast dan Good Report) = 0.02

P(Below Forecast dan Medium Report) = 0.2
P(Below Forecast dan Bad Report) = 0.27

Probabilitas (below the forecast) = 0,02+0,2+0,27

= 0.49

(Hal 145)
 Approximately 70% of the state of Pennsylvania sits on a shale formation from which natural gas may be extracted. If a geological test is positive, it has an 80% accuracy rate in correctly identifying a
productive drilling site (shale is under the ground). If there is no shale under the ground, geological testing is falsely positive with a probability of 20%. Suppose the result of the geological test comes back
5
positive (the test says there is shale under the ground). It is most important for us to know the probability that there is indeed shale under the ground given a positive geological test result. Find this
probability.
Answer :

P(SUTG ) = 0.7
P (Positif | SUTG) = 0.8

Prior Probability Conditional Probability join Probability

P(SUTG ) = 0.7 P (Positif | SUTG) 0.8 P (Positif dan SUTG) 0.56
P(SUTG )c = 0.3 P (Positif | SUTGc) 0.2 P (Positif dan SUTGc) 0.06
P (Positif) 0.62

Peluang (SUTG | Positif) 0.903

Peluang (SUTG | Positif) = P(Positif dan SUTG)/(P(Positif dan SUTG)+P(Positif dan SUTG)c
 Restaurants in London, Paris, and New York want diners to experience eating in pitch darkness to heighten their senses of taste and smell (Vanity Fair, December 2011). Suppose 400 people were asked,
6.
"If given the opportunity, would you eat at one of these restaurants?" The accompanying contingency table, cross-classified by age, would be produced.

18–29 30–44 45–64 65+

Yes 50 39 76 65 230
No 50 61 24 35 170
100 100 100 100 400
a. What is the probability that a respondent would eat at one of these restaurants?
Answer : 230
400
0.575

b. What is the probability that a respondent would eat at one of these restaurants or is in the 30–44 age bracket?
Answer : 291
400
0.7275

c. Given that the respondent would eat at one of these restaurants, what is the probability that he or she is in the 30–44 age bracket?
Answer : 39 0.56
230 0.06
0.17 0.62
0.903225806452

d. Is whether a respondent would eat at one of these restaurants independent of one's age? Explain using probabilities
Answer : 0.17 P(30-44 | yes)
0.25 P(30-44)
hubungan antar keduanya dependen

230

170

Dependen