Rep. Sun.

Practice II. Probability methods

Mr. Jacinto Villanueva

1) INSURANCE COMPANIES USE PROBABILITIES TO DETERMINE THE RATE THEY WILL CHARGE FOR AN
INSURANCE POLICY. IN A STUDY OF 300 PEOPLE WHO HAD LIFE INSURANCE POLICIES, AN INSURANCE
COMPANY FOUND THAT 111 PEOPLE WERE OVER 80 WHEN THEY DIED, 82 PEOPLE DIED WHEN THEY
WERE 70 AND 80 YEARS OLD, 52 DIED BETWEEN 60 AND 70 YEARS OLD OF AGE, AND 55 DIED WHEN
THEY WERE UNDER 60 YEARS OF AGE. WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF DYING YOUNGER THAN 70 YEARS
OF AGE?

DATA TABLE
Total people with policies 300
OVER 80 YEARS OLD 111
70 – 80 YEARS 82
60 – 70 YEARS 52
UNDER 60 YEARS 55

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛𝑜° 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝐴

𝑛𝑜° 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝐴 → 𝑃(𝑋) =

55
P(A)= = 0.1833 X 100 = 18.33%
300

2) T HE VEHI CLE REPAIR WORKSHOP OF A HOSPITAL COME IN THE MORNING : THR EE

CAR S WI T H ELECTRICAL PROBLEMS, EIGHT WITH MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND T HR EE
WI T H T I R E P R OBLEMS, AND IN THE AFTERNOON : TWO WITH ELECTRICAL PROBLEM S,
T HR EE WI T H MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND ONE WITH TIRES. CALCULATE PROBA BI L I TY

DATA TABLE
ELECTRICAL MECHANICAL TIRES TOTAL
TOMOR R OW 3 8 3 14
L A TE 2 3 1 6
TOTA L 5 11 4 20

a . Th a t a d r iver comes in the afternoon and has electricity problems

6 /2 0 = 0 . 3 0 x 100 = 30%

b . Th a t a vehicle has a mechanical and tire problem.

M ECHAN I CAL 11/20= 0.55 = 55% TIRE 4/20= 0.20 = 20%

 c . I f a veh i cle has a mechanical problem or comes in the afternoon .

M ECHAN I CAL 11/20= 0.55 = 55%

AF T ER N OON MECHANIC 3/11 = 0.27 = 27%

d . A b o u t a car with electrical problems coming in the morning.

ELECT R I CAL I N THE MORNING 3/5= 0.60 = 60%

3) I N EVALU AT I ON OF A SALES TRAINING PROGRAM, A COMPANY DISCOVERED T HAT OF

T HE 5 0 SELLERS WHO RECEIVED A BONUS THE PREVIOUS YEAR, 20 HAD ATTENDED A
SPECI AL SALES TRAINING PROGRAM. THE COMPANY HAS 200 EMPLOY EES.
CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY:

Sellers Number
They received bonuses 50
Training Program 20
Total Employees 200

a ) Th a t t h e s eller received the bonus

𝑷(𝑨) = 𝒏𝒐° 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨

𝒏𝒐° 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨 → 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟓𝟎/ 𝟐𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 25%

b ) I f it is k n own that the seller rec eived the bonus. What is the probability t h a t y o u
a t t en d ed the training program?

(𝑨 ) =𝒏𝒐 ° 𝒅𝒆𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔𝒅𝒆 TO

𝒏𝒐° 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨 → 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟐𝟎/𝟐𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟏 (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 10%

C) That the seller received the bonus and attended the training program

𝑷(𝑨) = 𝒏𝒐° 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨

𝒏𝒐° 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨 → 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟐𝟎/𝟓𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟒 (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 40%

D) That he did not receive a bonus.

𝑷(𝑨) = 𝒏𝒐° 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨

𝒏𝒐° 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒐𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆 𝑨 → 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟔 (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 60%

4) T HE P R OB AB ILITY OF A MAN LIVING 20 YEARS IS ¼ AND THE PROBABILITY OF HI S
WI F E LI VI NG 20 YEARS IS 1/3. DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY:

a ) Th a t t h ey b o th live 20 years.

1 1 1
P (H m) = . = 12
4 3

P (H M) = 0.083333 P (H M) — 0.08333 × 100% = 8.3%

b ) Th a t t h e ma n lives 20 years and his wife does not.

1 2 1
P (H M) = P( H ) [ 1-P ( M )] = 4 . 3 = 6

P (H M ) = 0.16666. . P (H M ) = 0.16666 × 100 = 16.6%

c ) Th a t b o t h d i e before the age of 20.

3 2 1
P (H m) = [ 1-P ( H )] [ 1-P ( M )] = 4 . 3 = 2

P ( H  M ) = 0.50 = 0.50 × 100% = 50%

5) 30% OF PATIENTS CARED FOR IN A HOSPITAL HAVE COVID 19, 40% HAVE INFLUENZA AND 10% HAVE
BOTH VIRUSES. A PATIENT IS CHOSEN AT RANDOM. CALCULATE:

Disease %
Covid-19 30
Influenza 40
Covid 19 - Influenza 10
Total 80%

a) The chance that you don't have the flu

no ° de eventos favorables de A
𝑷(𝑨) =
no ° total de eventos posibles de A
→ 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟒𝟎/𝟖𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟓 × (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 50 %

b) If you have corona virus, what is the probability of having the flu?
 no ° de eventos favorables de A
𝑷(𝑨) = → 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟏𝟎/𝟒𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 × (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 25%
no ° total de eventos posibles de A

c) What are the covid 19 and influenza events like?

no ° de eventos favorables de A
𝑷(𝑨) = → 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟏𝟎/𝟖𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 (𝟏𝟎𝟎) = 12.5%
no ° total de eventos posibles de A

These events are dependent, that is, they can both occur at the same time.

6) THE CHANCES OF PASSING STATISTICS ARE 80%, THE CHANCES OF PASSING MATHEMATICS 75% AND
THE CHANCES OF PASSING ADMINISTRATION 70%. CALCULATE.

SUBJECT % APPROVAL

STATISTICS 80

MATH 75

ADMINISTRATION 70

TOTAL 225%

a) The probability of passing all three subjects

P (E ∩ M ∩ A)= P (E). P (M). P(A)= 0.8 * 0.75 * 0.7= 0.42 = 42%

b) The probability of failing only one

P (E ∩ M ∩ A)= P (E)+ P (M)+ P (A)= 0.8 + 0.75 + 0.7= 2.25 = 22.5%

c) If only one has been failed. What is the probability that it was
Mathematics?

P (M/R1)= P (MYR1)/ P (R1) =

P (0.75*0.75)/0.75= 0.75 (100)= 75.5%

7) A HOSPITAL HAS TWO OFFICES TO CARE FOR PATIENTS WITH HUMAN BEHAVIORAL DISORDERS; THESE
OFFICES PROVIDED SERVICES TO 5,000 PATIENTS IN THE PAST MONTH. THE OFFICE A SERVED 3,500
PATIENTS OF WHICH IT WAS OBSERVED 2% HAD PERSONALITY PROBLEM. WHILE OFFICE B SERVED 2,500
PATIENTS OF WHICH 3% HAD PERSONALITY PROBLEM. THE DIRECTOR OF THE HOSPITAL'S PSYCHOLOGY
DEPARTMENT SELECTED ONE OF THESE PATIENTS RANDOMLY. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY?

a) THAT THE PATIENT HAS A PERSONALITY PROBLEM

b) THAT THE PATIENT DOES NOT HAVE A PERSONALITY PROBLEM
c) IF THE SELECTED PATIENT HAS A PERSONALITY PROBLEM. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT YOU WERE
ATTENDED IN OFFICE A?

AYB Consultancy Events

Common feature: Patients with personality problem

A) P(PP)= P(A)* P(PP/A) + P(B)* P(PP/B)

Consulting room Patients Probability Conditional probability

TO 3,500 3,500 = 0.70 * 2%= 0.02 = 0.0144

5000

b 2,500 2,500= 0.50 * 3%= 0.03 = 0.015

5000

P (PP)= 0.0144 + 0.015= 0.0294= 2.94%

B) P (AY P0P)= P(A)*P(PP/A) = (0.70)*(0.02) = 0.0144

P (BY PP) = P (B)* P (PP/B) = (0.50)*(0.03) = 0.015

P(PP) = 0.0144 + 0.015 = 0.0294 = 2.94%

P(A/PP )= (0.70)*(0.02) = 0.0144 = 0.4898

0.0294 0.0294
8) THREE MACHINES IN AN INDUSTRY ( A, BYC) MANUFACTURE 43 %, 26% AND 31% OF THE PRODUCTION.
THE QUALITY CONTROL DEPARTMENT HAS DETECTED THAT 8%, 3% AND 4 % OF THE PRODUCTS HAVE
MANUFACTURING DEFECTS. ONE OF THESE PRODUCTS IS SELECTED. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE A MANUFACTURING DEFECT?

Let D= "the part is defective" and N= "the part is not defective."

To calculate the probability that the chosen part is defective, P(D), due to the total probability property,

P(D) = P(A) · P(D/A) + P(B) · P(D/B) + P(C) · P(D/C) =

= 0.43 · 0.08 + 0.26 · 0.03 + 0.31 · 0.04 = 0.055

MACHINES % PRODUCTION %MANUFACTURING TOTAL

DEFECTS

TO 43 8 51

b 26 3 29

c 31 4 35

TOTAL 100% 15% 115

P (A ∩ B ∩ C) P/ A (pd) P/ B (pd) P/C (pd)=

P/ A= 43 -8 = 35 = 35/115= 0.304(100)=30.4%

P/ B= 26 -3 = 23= 23/115= 0.2 (100)=20%

P/ C= 31 -4 = 27= 27/115= 0.234(100)=23.4%

Alternative: 85/ 115= 0.739(100)=73.9= 80% probability. Marginal

 9) IN THE COURSE OF STATISTICAL METHODS II ONLY 50 OF THE 75 ENROLLED STUDENTS ATTEND CLASS.
IT IS KNOWN THAT 90% OF THE STUDENTS WHO ATTEND CLASS REGULARLY PASS THE SUBJECT AND
ONLY 30% OF THOSE WHO DO NOT ATTEND PASS. A STUDENT IS CHOSEN RANDOMLY. CALCULATE
AND INTERPRET

a) THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAVE APPROVED

b) IF IT IS KNOWN THAT THE STUDENT HAS FAILED, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE
STUDENT HAS ATTENDED CLASS?

Solution

Let the events be:

Ap = Approve
C = Attend class

It is a compound experiment, to analyze it we use a tree diagram, labeling the

branches with the conditional probabilities.

A) P (Ap) = p (ApǀC) . p(C) + p(ApǀC ). p (C )=

50 25
= 0,9 . + 0 ,3 . = 0,7 + 0,1 = 0.8 × (100) = 80 %
75 75

B) P (Ap)= 0.8 → p( Ap ) = 1-P (Ap) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2 × (100) = 20%

10) THE FAVORITE ONLINE STORE OF 33 PERCENT OF A GROUP OF YOUNG PEOPLE IS EBAY, 8
PERCENT PREFER ALIBABA, 2 PERCENT PREFER JD. COM AND THE REST PREFER TO BUY ON AMAZON.
THE PROBABILITY THAT THE ORDER WILL NOT ARRIVE TO THE RECIPIENT, DEPENDING ON THE HOUSE
THAT SENDS IT, IS 0.8, 0.9, 0.7 AND 0.6 RESPECTIVELY. ONE OF THE YOUNG PEOPLE ASKS FOR THE
LATEST MODEL OF IPHONE. IF IT IS KNOWN THAT THE ORDER DOES NOT ARRIVE ON TIME TO ITS
RECIPIENT . WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE ORDER WAS FROM EBAY?

P(D) = P(A) + P(D/A) + P(B) + P(D/B) =

= 0.80 + 0.90 + 0.70 + 0.60 / 0.33 = 4.42

11) 100 PEOPLE CAME TO THE HUMAN RESOURCES DEPARTMENT OF A COMPANY TO APPLY FOR
JOBS. OF THEM, 30 WERE FROM THE ADMINISTRATION COURSE, 20 WERE FROM MARKETING, AND THE
REMAINING 50 WERE FROM ACCOUNTING. FINISHED THE FIRST PHASE OF INTERVIEW, THE PERCENTAGE
OF RECRUITMENT IN THE ADMINISTRATION GROUP WAS 50% , IN MARKETING 70% AND 40% IN THE
ACCOUNTING GROUP. ONE APPLICANT IS SELECTED AT RANDOM.

CAREER % APPLICATION % HIRING TOTAL

Administration 30 15 45
Marketing 20 14 34
Accounting 50 20 70
Total 100 49% 149%

Find the probability:

1) That the applicant is an accountant

P (S/C) = P (50/149) = 0.335 (100 ) = 33.5%

2) That the applicant is administration and marketing.

𝑃 (𝑆/𝐴𝑌𝑀) = 𝑃 (30/149/20/149) = 0.20/0.13 = 0.33 = 33%

3) That it is not administration

N 30
P( )=P( ) = 0.20 = 20%
A 149

4) What is the probability of the applicant being accounting or marketing?

𝑃 (𝑆/𝐶 𝑜 𝑀) = 𝑃 (0.50 + 0.20) = 0.7 (100) = 70%

5) That it is accounting and has been hired

𝑃 ( + 𝐶./𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙) 𝑃 (0.50 + 0.20/149) = 70/100 = 0.47 = 47%

6) That the applicant has been hired

𝑃 (𝑆/𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑜) 𝑃 (100 − 49) = 0.51 = 51%

7) If it is known that the applicant was not hired by the company. What is the probability that it is
marketing ?