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UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA
FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS

MIDTERM EXAM
First Semester 2020/2021
Statistics for Economics and Business 1

Date : Thursday, Nov 5th, 2020

Time : 9.00 WIB – 11.30 WIB (150 minutes)
Lecturer : Team

This exam consists of four problems with equal contribution to the total.
You can use Excel.

Problem 1 (25 points)

The following were the height data (in cm) obtained from Economics students of FEB UI in
the first semester of 2020/2021.

147 148 148 149 152 154 154 154 155 155
156 157 157 159 161 162 163 164 165 166
167 168 170 171 171 174 175 175 180 180
188

Questions
a. Construct a stem-and-leaf display with 5 stems. (5 points)
b. Calculate the mean, median, and mode for data at stem 16. (5 points)
c. Construct a box-plot for the whole data. (5 points)
d. Show whether the data contain outlier(s). (5 points)
e. Make a comment on the shape of the distribution of the data. (5 points)

Problem 2 (25 points)

The following table is data on the consumer price index (CPI), inflation rate, and monthly
salary for the 2014–2018 period with some missing information.
CPI Monthly salary Inflation rate
Year
(2012 = 100) (million Rupiah) (%)
2014 116 6.00 7
2015 … 6.30 8
2016 … 6.50 9
2017 140 6.90 …
2018 148 7.10 …
2019 158 7.40 …

Questions
a. Find the missing information in the table above (10 points).
b. With the correct formula, what was the average annual inflation rate over the past 6
years? (5 points)
c. Arrange the real wage over the past six years (2014–2019) based on prices in 2017?
(5 points)
d. Find the consumer price index for 2014–2019 with 2018 as the base year. (5 points)
 2

Problem 3 (25 points)

Assumed that 2% of the population in a city are infected by COVID-19. It is also assumed that
from those who are infected took the PCR swab test, there is a 99% chance that the test will
return a “positive” reading. Keep in mind that these tests are not perfect. Even if the suspect
does not have COVID-19, there is some probability that the test will return a positive. Let’s
suppose that, given that an individual is not infected by COVID-19, there is still a 3% chance
that the swab test will return a positive (and the suspect has to be quarantined).

a. Use a tree diagram to list the sample space for showing all possible outcomes after
selecting a suspect (who either has COVID-19 or does not) and then testing (and the
test will be either positive or negative). (5 points)
b. Calculate the probability that the suspect does not have COVID-19. (5 points)
c. What is the probability that the suspect has test positive, given that the suspect does
not have COVID-19? (5 points)
d. What is the probability that a randomly chosen suspect will be COVID-19-free and
will still test positive for COVID-19? (5 points)
e. Suppose the suspect has test negative. What is the probability that the suspect has
COVID-19? (5 points)

Problem 4 (25 points)

At the archery training ground, some archers shoot arrows at targets at a distance of between
20 meters and 70 meters. The probability of hitting a target with one shot is p. When shooting
from a distance d meter, p = 0.015 (70 – d). Each arrow is released independently.
1. Can you explain why this is a binomial probability distribution case, assuming y shots are
taken? (5 points)
2. An archer releases 10 arrows from a distance of 40 meters.
a. Find the probability that exactly 4 arrows hit the target! (5 points)
b. Find the probability that at least 8 arrows hit the target! (5 points)
3. Another archer releases 20 arrows from a distance of x meter, find the value of x if the
archer has an 80% chance of hitting the target at least once! (10 points)

ALL THE BEST!