© 2014 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1671A
org
is an unfamiliar territory ...
The future of technology
20 Combinatorial Forecasts: Frontiers of innovation
1 The microbiome mediates the war on germs
lif e sc i ence substances
Increased understanding of the microbiome—the community of micro-
organisms in our bodies—is challenging our long-running obsession
with antibacterial measures. New approaches to staying healthy will
be based on balancing the ecologies of microorganisms: think “bugs,
not drugs.” Indiegogo-funded uBiome is already helping people better
understand their germs by sequencing the bacteria in their bodies.
This new understanding will likely lead to a new wave of
so
probiotic products and perhaps even to seeding babies’
what?
guts with microbial life.
2 Thinking and feeling become quantifiable
lif e sc i ence perso nal experience
Sophisticated brain-imaging technologies and neural modeling using
machine-learning algorithms are promising to enable measurement of
subjective aspects of human experience. Neuroscientists can read
visual images from brain activity. Assigning precise measurements to
feelings like pain through neurofeedback and other techniques could
allow for comparison, modulation, and manipulation of these feelings.
Direct measurement of our once-private thoughts and feelings
so
can help us understand other people’s experience but will also
what?
present challenges regarding privacy and definition of norms.
3 Biomanufacturing unites mother nature with
the man-made
lif e sc i ence substances i nd ustry
As the recent public debut of lab-grown meat hints, bioengineering
technologies are transforming manufacturing. With biomanufacturing,
heretofore associated with the development of pharmaceuticals and
artificial organisms, new biology-based processes will do things that
only machines have previously done. For example, scientists have
recently been able to modify cells to act like fully functional computers.
People and organizations involved in manufacturing
so
and production will face new competitive dynamics
what?
from bio-inspired processes and designs.
www.iftf.
Combinatorial
2014–2024 20 Forecasts
The Technology Horizon
4 The cloud coalesces into a global supercomputer
d i str i buted co mputat i o n inf o rmati o n netwo rks
netwo rked matter
No longer simply a way to virtualize enterprise IT or to expand storage
capacity, cloud computing offers a more disruptive capability. It lends
greatly expanded processing power to any computational project, from
personal analytics on your smartphone to enterprise simulations for the
firm. Moreover, as powerful computation becomes ever more embedded
in everyday objects, the internet of things will also run on this cloud
supercomputing network.
As access to cheap, scalable supercomputing in the cloud
so becomes available to any device or app whenever,
what? wherever, it will be put to new uses as a problem-solving
tool even in geographies with resource constraints.
5 Reality will be in the eye of the beholder
perso nal exper i ence culture and so ci ety
While technology has traditionally served to connect us in a shared
reality, wearable and embedded devices will increasingly allow for our
fundamental perceptions to radically diverge. The coming generations
of augmented reality and brain-computer interfaces will shape our views
according to highly personalized filters. Ultimately, this could create a
world where each individual lives in his or her own digitally layered reality.
Polarization and miscommunication will increase as shared
so
context becomes scarcer, while people and organizations that
what?
can clearly communicate across perceptual layers will gain value.
6 We’ll all see through other people’s eyes
perso nal exper i ence culture and so ci ety
i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Virtualization and wearable computing devices will combine to create a
new wave of social technology. The Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset
for 3D gaming, already allows users to virtually explore real environments
from the perspective of a child, and wearable recording devices are
beginning to capture the details of everyday life.
While offering the possibility of amplifying compassion, this new
so
technology also raises privacy issues and creates nearly endless
what?
marketing and customization opportunities for enterprises.
Christine Peterson, Brian Wang, Eric Stackpole
Romie Littrell, Todd Meyerrose, Josh Perfetto,
Matt Bell, Ian Blumenfeld, Rachel Kalmar,
Special thanks to:
Trent Kuhn, Karin Lubeck | Design Team
Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks,
& Executive Producer
Jean Hagan | Creative Director
Design & Production
Nicolas Weidinger | Research Team
David Pescovitz, Jason Tester,
Alex Goldman, Lyn Jeffery, Mike Liebhold,
Jake Dunagan, Eri Gentry,
Devin Fidler | Project Lead
Sean Ness | Business Development
Nicole Tindall | Program Manager
Rod Falcon | Program Director
Pro gr am T eam
T ech n o lo gy H o r izo n s
The Technology Horizon
7 Intelligence moves to the networked edges
i n f o rmat i o n netwo rks di str i buted co mputati o n
Network processing power is concentrated today at the core (in the
cloud) and on the periphery (in end-point devices), but we will see
increasing intelligence at intermediate processing points. New “hotspots
of smart” in our communications network infrastructure will facilitate
seamless local interactions between diverse networked people and things.
Geography matters in localized processing. Physical spaces
so
with access to intermediate processing can be made smarter
what?
than those with access only to traditional networks.
8 Work becomes programmable
culture and so c i ety i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Early Internet technologies allowed a freer, more open way of
communicating. That transformation naturally led to a revolution
involving commerce. We are on the brink of the next Internet revolution:
coordination. Start-ups and technologies will rush to map and activate
spare capacities and resources—from human skills to legacy assets—
in massively coordinated efforts.
A striking variety of approaches to coordinating everything from
so
resource sharing to complex workflows will upend twentieth-
what?
century models of commerce, work, learning, and productivity.
9 Code becomes law
culture and so c i ety
With sensors and programmable devices everywhere, law enforcement
will become embedded in the environment. It might soon be impossible
for people or machines to do illegal things, a scenario that many
enforcement agents prefer. For example, the EU has proposed that
cars be designed so that they cannot exceed about 70 mph.
Governance is shifting from reliance on individual
so
responsibility and human policing toward a system of
what?
embedded protocols and automatic rule enforcement.
10 Graphene supermaterials spark a nanorevolution
reso urces substances
Improvements in the production of graphene (a two-dimensional material
consisting of a nanoscale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms) are
laying the groundwork for vastly more effective energy systems, faster
chip architectures, stronger plastics, more accurate sensors, and batteries
that last. Manufacturing challenges still exist, but teams of researchers at
Stanford, MIT, and Harvard have found methods using DNA to scaffold
the construction of molecularly perfect graphene structures.
Graphene supermaterials have the potential to revolutionize
so
materials science, creating artifacts that can do seemingly
what?
magical things.
Palo Alto, CA 94301
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
in the coming decade.
live, work, and connect with one another
threats, as well as anticipate how we will Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.
and discover new market opportunities and and human identity. The Institute for the
forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, health care to technology, the workplace,
identify the value in new technologies, transformative trends, from health and
beyond the technical capabilities and research spans a broad territory of deeply
holders, and citizens allows IFTF to look to create insights that lead to action. Our
humans as consumers, workers, house­ research generates the foresight needed
the center of our forecasts. Understanding innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
forecasting is unique—we put people at into business strategy, design process,
the future. Our approach to technology We provide our members with insights
strategic tools to better position them for society and the global marketplace.
and communities develop insights and discontinuities that will transform global
three to ten years. We help organizations work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities and innovations in the next forecasting experience. The core of our
societal forces to identify and evaluate group with more than 45 years of
a deep understanding of technology and independent, nonprofit strategic research
The Technology Horizons Program combines The Institute for the Future is an
HOR I ZONS PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE
ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT THE I NST I TUTE
11 Magical materials transform digital devices
r esou rc es
Supermaterials currently under development will transform consumer
electronics as we know them. Memristors, for example, will soon
allow designers to create devices with memory systems that function
more like a brain. Further out, energy-efficient technologies and
supercapacitors could dramatically improve battery performance.
We have become used to basic limitations in the way
so
electronics work, but many future electronic systems will
what?
be limited only by our own imaginations.
12 Waste mining pushes against planned obsolescence
su bstanc es r esou rc es log istic s indu stry
Waste materials will become increasingly valuable as new technologies
offer better ways to extract reusable substances like rare metals from
discarded products. Global energy demands will revitalize the waste
and recycling industries. Already, industrial-scale systems are under
construction by companies such as Enerkem in cities worldwide to
convert nearly all local landfill waste to energy.
Traditional landfills will be our mines of the future as new
so standards, incentives, and technologies emerge to prolong
what?
the life cycle of materials and supplies.
13 The new space race yields innovations on Earth
r esou rc es logi st i c s
With efforts under way to commercialize spaceflight, governmental
organizations will become customers of entrepreneurial ventures around
medicine, manufacturing, and surveillance funded by private industry.
This decade’s space race will be between companies like SpaceX
jockeying for NASA contracts, third parties such as biotech firms
seeking to do microgravity medical research, and private outfits like
Virgin Galactic cashing in on a boom in space tourism.
The first space race drove breakthroughs in science and
technology that eventually trickled down to civilians. This one,
so
springing directly from the private sector, will likely accelerate
what?
R&D and commercialization of new technologies developed
for, or in, space.
14 Matter routing delivers a new kind of supply web
ne w c omp e t it ion ne twor ke d matte r log ist ic s data
Rapid innovation in mobile commerce, autonomous vehicles, detailed
urban traffic models, and routing algorithms will begin to string together
end-to-end solutions to route actual things where and when they are
needed. Google’s autonomous car project and early experiments with
drone-based delivery services will finally be commercially deployed.
Supply chains will become far more complex supply webs,
so
and people will be able to access things in real time through
what?
many more channels.
progress. We hope that you consider it an invitation to add your own landmarks and fill in unexplored regions.
This map is just one view of the technology landscape that lies before us. Think about it as a work in
new research, innovative businesses, or other endeavors, demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
and newly opening possibilities. Concrete examples from the world today, including emerging technologies,
navigate the future as it unfolds. Each combinatorial forecast is built on a range of enabling technologies
This Technology Horizon map presents twenty new innovative combinatorial forecasts you can use to
anticipate the future emerging at these intersection points.
and remixed in new and different combinations. Combinatorial forecasting embraces this complexity to
of foundational elements. Over the next decade, many different foundational technologies will get mixed
trends is insufficient. Technological change is increasingly driven by the combination and recombination
innovation, we have revisited the processes we use to build foresight. Linear extrapolation of technological
Against a background of accelerating change, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational
intersection of future possibilities.
a broad look ahead at the amazing technological innovations and disruptions emerging from the
pointing out both technological shifts and transformations. In 2014, we continue this process by taking
Each year, IFTF creates forecasts and maps charting the technology horizon for the next decade—
these emerging technology spaces.
For more than thirty years, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program has been scouting ahead, exploring
experiments hint at things to come.
horizon, as small-scale discoveries, innovations, and
of these new frontiers are already becoming visible on the
of new technology territories. In many cases, the outlines
In the next decade, we will advance into a number
15 The human-machine division of labor rebalances 18 The Internet becomes a network of networks
ne twor ke d matte r logist i c s data n e t wo rk e d m at t e r di st ri bu t e d c om p utati on
art ifi ci al i n t e llige nc e ne w c om p e titi on
On the factory floor, humans will learn to work alongside robot
colleagues that augment and extend human capabilities. Already, Over the coming decade, we will see more specialized networks
BMW is testing “collaborative robots” in its factories that, for example, established as an alternative to the Internet as we know it. For example,
glue parts together that are held in place by more precise human the emergence of services built into the hardware layer of new network
fingers. Kiva Systems is automating the warehouse floor with robots topologies shows promise. This arrangement could dramatically reduce
increasing human productivity. And “social robots” are aiding downtime and lead to new smart grids, inexpensive but high-quality
health-care workers and caregivers in homes and hospitals. video conferencing, and faster financial transactions and swarm
computing clusters. Since existing Internet infrastructures will limit many
We’ll rethink what it means to be human in a world remade
so of these possibilities, we will likely see additional fragmentation through
for machines and embrace the opportunity to do what we’re
what? tailor-made sub-networks. Your experience of the Internet will fragment
uniquely good at while leaving the rest for the machines.
too as entirely new Internets—from finances to health—emerge to leverage
flexibility, efficiency, and security gained in new network arrangements.
16 Local energy production will power the smart grid
Matching more specialized networks to specific applications
r esou rc es logist ic s so will be a functional challenge for organizations, individuals,
As the smart grid begins to take shape, a big push is emerging for what? and network providers. There will be no single Internet but
many Internets.
more localized energy production. The idea is to deploy cheaper
and more climate-friendly solar, wind, and fuel cell technology at
the neighborhood scale, with smart routing and storage. Watch 19 Machines get a social life
for widespread decentralization of energy grids as digital intelligence
d i st r i b u t e d c om p u tat i on a rtifi ci a l in tell igen ce
and renewable energy technologies drive power production to the
Computation will continue to move away from single-user desktop
edges of our networks.
applications and toward a rich variety of novel forms and architectures.
Complicating the debate about sprawl and land use, this shift
so Ultimately, as machine-to-machine systems mature, these digital
could mean that—as at least one study argues—suburbs are
what? systems will interact with each other far more than with human users
the most sustainable use of land for distributed solar.
and will cooperate in new ways. MIT researcher David Rose frames
this shift as a transition from traditional computation toward a world
17 The data race shifts gears from information to insights of “enchanted objects.”
ne twor ke d matte r data To a large extent, new computation technologies will
so revolve around finding ways for computers to connect
As sensing and computing become available all the time everywhere,
what? and communicate with each other without people
organizations that can create machine intelligence tools and operating
getting in the way.
practices to blend massive amounts of data from many sources will
move to the forefront of innovation. They will have a competitive advantage
through amplified decision support and complex task management as 20 An algorithm arms race risks a Sorcerer’s
well as new insight into market dynamics and hidden forms of value.
Apprentice scenario
The collection of “big data” has gotten a lot of attention, but
art ifi ci al i n t e ll i ge nc e ne w c om p e titi on
so the organizations that figure out how to unlock insights by
what? fluidly blending data from many sources will be best positioned
As prediction algorithms are deployed to detect geopolitical and
to serve their market and stakeholders. financial discontinuities, they will increasingly be designed to anticipate
and outdo one another. Once these bots are empowered to act upon
and adjust our increasingly critical connected systems—such as global
markets, smart cities, and social networks, competing programs could
create chaos. Financial trading algorithms, for example, have already
been implicated as the cause of market “flash crashes.”
Chaos caused by competing algorithms could thwart
so
our ultimate goal of fine-tuning systems to avoid
what?
potential problems.

is an unfamiliar territory ...
The future of technology
20 Combinatorial Forecasts: Frontiers of innovation
1 The microbiome mediates the war on germs
lif e sc i ence substances
Increased understanding of the microbiome—the community of micro-
organisms in our bodies—is challenging our long-running obsession
with antibacterial measures. New approaches to staying healthy will
be based on balancing the ecologies of microorganisms: think “bugs,
not drugs.” Indiegogo-funded uBiome is already helping people better
understand their germs by sequencing the bacteria in their bodies.
This new understanding will likely lead to a new wave of
so
probiotic products and perhaps even to seeding babies’
what?
guts with microbial life.
2 Thinking and feeling become quantifiable
lif e sc i ence perso nal experience
Sophisticated brain-imaging technologies and neural modeling using
machine-learning algorithms are promising to enable measurement of
subjective aspects of human experience. Neuroscientists can read
visual images from brain activity. Assigning precise measurements to
feelings like pain through neurofeedback and other techniques could
allow for comparison, modulation, and manipulation of these feelings.
Direct measurement of our once-private thoughts and feelings
so
can help us understand other people’s experience but will also
what?
present challenges regarding privacy and definition of norms.
3 Biomanufacturing unites mother nature with
the man-made
lif e sc i ence substances i nd ustry
As the recent public debut of lab-grown meat hints, bioengineering
technologies are transforming manufacturing. With biomanufacturing,
heretofore associated with the development of pharmaceuticals and
artificial organisms, new biology-based processes will do things that
only machines have previously done. For example, scientists have
recently been able to modify cells to act like fully functional computers.
People and organizations involved in manufacturing
so
and production will face new competitive dynamics
what?
from bio-inspired processes and designs.
Combinatorial
2014–2024 20 Forecasts
The Technology Horizon
4 The cloud coalesces into a global supercomputer
d i str i buted co mputat i o n inf o rmati o n netwo rks
netwo rked matter
No longer simply a way to virtualize enterprise IT or to expand storage
capacity, cloud computing offers a more disruptive capability. It lends
greatly expanded processing power to any computational project, from
personal analytics on your smartphone to enterprise simulations for the
firm. Moreover, as powerful computation becomes ever more embedded
in everyday objects, the internet of things will also run on this cloud
supercomputing network.
As access to cheap, scalable supercomputing in the cloud
so becomes available to any device or app whenever,
what? wherever, it will be put to new uses as a problem-solving
tool even in geographies with resource constraints.
5 Reality will be in the eye of the beholder
perso nal exper i ence culture and so ci ety
While technology has traditionally served to connect us in a shared
reality, wearable and embedded devices will increasingly allow for our
fundamental perceptions to radically diverge. The coming generations
of augmented reality and brain-computer interfaces will shape our views
according to highly personalized filters. Ultimately, this could create a
world where each individual lives in his or her own digitally layered reality.
Polarization and miscommunication will increase as shared
so
context becomes scarcer, while people and organizations that
what?
can clearly communicate across perceptual layers will gain value.
6 We’ll all see through other people’s eyes
perso nal exper i ence culture and so ci ety
i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Virtualization and wearable computing devices will combine to create a
new wave of social technology. The Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset
for 3D gaming, already allows users to virtually explore real environments
from the perspective of a child, and wearable recording devices are
beginning to capture the details of everyday life.
While offering the possibility of amplifying compassion, this new
so
technology also raises privacy issues and creates nearly endless
what?
marketing and customization opportunities for enterprises.
© 2014 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1671A
Christine Peterson, Brian Wang, Eric Stackpole
Romie Littrell, Todd Meyerrose, Josh Perfetto,
Matt Bell, Ian Blumenfeld, Rachel Kalmar,
Special thanks to:
Trent Kuhn, Karin Lubeck | Design Team
Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks,
& Executive Producer
Jean Hagan | Creative Director
Design & Production
Nicolas Weidinger | Research Team
David Pescovitz, Jason Tester,
Alex Goldman, Lyn Jeffery, Mike Liebhold,
Jake Dunagan, Eri Gentry,
Devin Fidler | Project Lead
Sean Ness | Business Development
Nicole Tindall | Program Manager
Rod Falcon | Program Director
Pro gr am T eam
T ech n o lo gy H o r izo n s
The Technology Horizon
7 Intelligence moves to the networked edges
i n f o rmat i o n netwo rks di str i buted co mputati o n
Network processing power is concentrated today at the core (in the
cloud) and on the periphery (in end-point devices), but we will see
increasing intelligence at intermediate processing points. New “hotspots
of smart” in our communications network infrastructure will facilitate
seamless local interactions between diverse networked people and things.
Geography matters in localized processing. Physical spaces
so
with access to intermediate processing can be made smarter
what?
than those with access only to traditional networks.
8 Work becomes programmable
culture and so c i ety i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Early Internet technologies allowed a freer, more open way of
communicating. That transformation naturally led to a revolution
involving commerce. We are on the brink of the next Internet revolution:
coordination. Start-ups and technologies will rush to map and activate
spare capacities and resources—from human skills to legacy assets—
in massively coordinated efforts.
A striking variety of approaches to coordinating everything from
so
resource sharing to complex workflows will upend twentieth-
what?
century models of commerce, work, learning, and productivity.
9 Code becomes law
culture and so c i ety
With sensors and programmable devices everywhere, law enforcement
will become embedded in the environment. It might soon be impossible
for people or machines to do illegal things, a scenario that many
enforcement agents prefer. For example, the EU has proposed that
cars be designed so that they cannot exceed about 70 mph.
Governance is shifting from reliance on individual
so
responsibility and human policing toward a system of
what?
embedded protocols and automatic rule enforcement.
10 Graphene supermaterials spark a nanorevolution
reso urces substances
Improvements in the production of graphene (a two-dimensional material
consisting of a nanoscale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms) are
laying the groundwork for vastly more effective energy systems, faster
chip architectures, stronger plastics, more accurate sensors, and batteries
that last. Manufacturing challenges still exist, but teams of researchers at
Stanford, MIT, and Harvard have found methods using DNA to scaffold
the construction of molecularly perfect graphene structures.
Graphene supermaterials have the potential to revolutionize
so
materials science, creating artifacts that can do seemingly
what?
magical things.
www.iftf.org
Palo Alto, CA 94301
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
in the coming decade.
live, work, and connect with one another
threats, as well as anticipate how we will Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.
and discover new market opportunities and and human identity. The Institute for the
forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, health care to technology, the workplace,
identify the value in new technologies, transformative trends, from health and
beyond the technical capabilities and research spans a broad territory of deeply
holders, and citizens allows IFTF to look to create insights that lead to action. Our
humans as consumers, workers, house­ research generates the foresight needed
the center of our forecasts. Understanding innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
forecasting is unique—we put people at into business strategy, design process,
the future. Our approach to technology We provide our members with insights
strategic tools to better position them for society and the global marketplace.
and communities develop insights and discontinuities that will transform global
three to ten years. We help organizations work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities and innovations in the next forecasting experience. The core of our
societal forces to identify and evaluate group with more than 45 years of
a deep understanding of technology and independent, nonprofit strategic research
The Technology Horizons Program combines The Institute for the Future is an
HOR I ZONS PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE
ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT THE I NST I TUTE
11 Magical materials transform digital devices
r esou rc es
Supermaterials currently under development will transform consumer
electronics as we know them. Memristors, for example, will soon
allow designers to create devices with memory systems that function
more like a brain. Further out, energy-efficient technologies and
supercapacitors could dramatically improve battery performance.
We have become used to basic limitations in the way
so
electronics work, but many future electronic systems will
what?
be limited only by our own imaginations.
12 Waste mining pushes against planned obsolescence
su bstanc es r esou rc es log istic s indu stry
Waste materials will become increasingly valuable as new technologies
offer better ways to extract reusable substances like rare metals from
discarded products. Global energy demands will revitalize the waste
and recycling industries. Already, industrial-scale systems are under
construction by companies such as Enerkem in cities worldwide to
convert nearly all local landfill waste to energy.
Traditional landfills will be our mines of the future as new
so standards, incentives, and technologies emerge to prolong
what?
the life cycle of materials and supplies.
13 The new space race yields innovations on Earth
r esou rc es logi st i c s
With efforts under way to commercialize spaceflight, governmental
organizations will become customers of entrepreneurial ventures around
medicine, manufacturing, and surveillance funded by private industry.
This decade’s space race will be between companies like SpaceX
jockeying for NASA contracts, third parties such as biotech firms
seeking to do microgravity medical research, and private outfits like
Virgin Galactic cashing in on a boom in space tourism.
The first space race drove breakthroughs in science and
technology that eventually trickled down to civilians. This one,
so
springing directly from the private sector, will likely accelerate
what?
R&D and commercialization of new technologies developed
for, or in, space.
14 Matter routing delivers a new kind of supply web
ne w c omp e t it ion ne twor ke d matte r log ist ic s data
Rapid innovation in mobile commerce, autonomous vehicles, detailed
urban traffic models, and routing algorithms will begin to string together
end-to-end solutions to route actual things where and when they are
needed. Google’s autonomous car project and early experiments with
drone-based delivery services will finally be commercially deployed.
Supply chains will become far more complex supply webs,
so
and people will be able to access things in real time through
what?
many more channels.
progress. We hope that you consider it an invitation to add your own landmarks and fill in unexplored regions.
This map is just one view of the technology landscape that lies before us. Think about it as a work in
new research, innovative businesses, or other endeavors, demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
and newly opening possibilities. Concrete examples from the world today, including emerging technologies,
navigate the future as it unfolds. Each combinatorial forecast is built on a range of enabling technologies
This Technology Horizon map presents twenty new innovative combinatorial forecasts you can use to
anticipate the future emerging at these intersection points.
and remixed in new and different combinations. Combinatorial forecasting embraces this complexity to
of foundational elements. Over the next decade, many different foundational technologies will get mixed
trends is insufficient. Technological change is increasingly driven by the combination and recombination
innovation, we have revisited the processes we use to build foresight. Linear extrapolation of technological
Against a background of accelerating change, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational
intersection of future possibilities.
a broad look ahead at the amazing technological innovations and disruptions emerging from the
pointing out both technological shifts and transformations. In 2014, we continue this process by taking
Each year, IFTF creates forecasts and maps charting the technology horizon for the next decade—
these emerging technology spaces.
For more than thirty years, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program has been scouting ahead, exploring
experiments hint at things to come.
horizon, as small-scale discoveries, innovations, and
of these new frontiers are already becoming visible on the
of new technology territories. In many cases, the outlines
In the next decade, we will advance into a number
15 The human-machine division of labor rebalances 18 The Internet becomes a network of networks
ne twor ke d matte r logist i c s data n e t wo rk e d m at t e r di st ri bu t e d c om p utati on
art ifi ci al i n t e llige nc e ne w c om p e titi on
On the factory floor, humans will learn to work alongside robot
colleagues that augment and extend human capabilities. Already, Over the coming decade, we will see more specialized networks
BMW is testing “collaborative robots” in its factories that, for example, established as an alternative to the Internet as we know it. For example,
glue parts together that are held in place by more precise human the emergence of services built into the hardware layer of new network
fingers. Kiva Systems is automating the warehouse floor with robots topologies shows promise. This arrangement could dramatically reduce
increasing human productivity. And “social robots” are aiding downtime and lead to new smart grids, inexpensive but high-quality
health-care workers and caregivers in homes and hospitals. video conferencing, and faster financial transactions and swarm
computing clusters. Since existing Internet infrastructures will limit many
We’ll rethink what it means to be human in a world remade
so of these possibilities, we will likely see additional fragmentation through
for machines and embrace the opportunity to do what we’re
what? tailor-made sub-networks. Your experience of the Internet will fragment
uniquely good at while leaving the rest for the machines.
too as entirely new Internets—from finances to health—emerge to leverage
flexibility, efficiency, and security gained in new network arrangements.
16 Local energy production will power the smart grid
Matching more specialized networks to specific applications
r esou rc es logist ic s so will be a functional challenge for organizations, individuals,
As the smart grid begins to take shape, a big push is emerging for what? and network providers. There will be no single Internet but
many Internets.
more localized energy production. The idea is to deploy cheaper
and more climate-friendly solar, wind, and fuel cell technology at
the neighborhood scale, with smart routing and storage. Watch 19 Machines get a social life
for widespread decentralization of energy grids as digital intelligence
d i st r i b u t e d c om p u tat i on a rtifi ci a l in tell igen ce
and renewable energy technologies drive power production to the
Computation will continue to move away from single-user desktop
edges of our networks.
applications and toward a rich variety of novel forms and architectures.
Complicating the debate about sprawl and land use, this shift
so Ultimately, as machine-to-machine systems mature, these digital
could mean that—as at least one study argues—suburbs are
what? systems will interact with each other far more than with human users
the most sustainable use of land for distributed solar.
and will cooperate in new ways. MIT researcher David Rose frames
this shift as a transition from traditional computation toward a world
17 The data race shifts gears from information to insights of “enchanted objects.”
ne twor ke d matte r data To a large extent, new computation technologies will
so revolve around finding ways for computers to connect
As sensing and computing become available all the time everywhere,
what? and communicate with each other without people
organizations that can create machine intelligence tools and operating
getting in the way.
practices to blend massive amounts of data from many sources will
move to the forefront of innovation. They will have a competitive advantage
through amplified decision support and complex task management as 20 An algorithm arms race risks a Sorcerer’s
well as new insight into market dynamics and hidden forms of value.
Apprentice scenario
The collection of “big data” has gotten a lot of attention, but
art ifi ci al i n t e ll i ge nc e ne w c om p e titi on
so the organizations that figure out how to unlock insights by
what? fluidly blending data from many sources will be best positioned
As prediction algorithms are deployed to detect geopolitical and
to serve their market and stakeholders. financial discontinuities, they will increasingly be designed to anticipate
and outdo one another. Once these bots are empowered to act upon
and adjust our increasingly critical connected systems—such as global
markets, smart cities, and social networks, competing programs could
create chaos. Financial trading algorithms, for example, have already
been implicated as the cause of market “flash crashes.”
Chaos caused by competing algorithms could thwart
so
our ultimate goal of fine-tuning systems to avoid
what?
potential problems.

is an unfamiliar territory ...
The future of technology
20 Combinatorial Forecasts: Frontiers of innovation
1 The microbiome mediates the war on germs
l if e sc i ence substances
Increased understanding of the microbiome—the community of micro-
organisms in our bodies—is challenging our long-running obsession
with antibacterial measures. New approaches to staying healthy will
be based on balancing the ecologies of microorganisms: think “bugs,
not drugs.” Indiegogo-funded uBiome is already helping people better
understand their germs by sequencing the bacteria in their bodies.
This new understanding will likely lead to a new wave of
so
what?
probiotic products and perhaps even to seeding babies’
guts with microbial life.
2 Thinking and feeling become quantifiable
l if e sc i ence p erso nal ex p eri ence
Sophisticated brain-imaging technologies and neural modeling using
machine-learning algorithms are promising to enable measurement of
subjective aspects of human experience. Neuroscientists can read
visual images from brain activity. Assigning precise measurements to
feelings like pain through neurofeedback and other techniques could
allow for comparison, modulation, and manipulation of these feelings.
Direct measurement of our once-private thoughts and feelings
so
can help us understand other people’s experience but will also
what?
present challenges regarding privacy and definition of norms.
3 Biomanufacturing unites mother nature with
the man-made
l if e sc i ence substances i nd ustry
As the recent public debut of lab-grown meat hints, bioengineering
technologies are transforming manufacturing. With biomanufacturing,
heretofore associated with the development of pharmaceuticals and
artificial organisms, new biology-based processes will do things that
only machines have previously done. For example, scientists have
recently been able to modify cells to act like fully functional computers.
People and organizations involved in manufacturing
so
and production will face new competitive dynamics
what?
from bio-inspired processes and designs.
2014–2024 20 Forecasts
Combinatorial
The Technology Horizon
4 The cloud coalesces into a global supercomputer
d i str i buted co mp utat i o n i n f o rmati o n netwo rks
n etwo rked matter
No longer simply a way to virtualize enterprise IT or to expand storage
capacity, cloud computing offers a more disruptive capability. It lends
greatly expanded processing power to any computational project, from
personal analytics on your smartphone to enterprise simulations for the
firm. Moreover, as powerful computation becomes ever more embedded
in everyday objects, the internet of things will also run on this cloud
supercomputing network.
As access to cheap, scalable supercomputing in the cloud
so becomes available to any device or app whenever,
what? wherever, it will be put to new uses as a problem-solving
tool even in geographies with resource constraints.
5 Reality will be in the eye of the beholder
p ers o n al ex p er i en ce culture and so ci ety
While technology has traditionally served to connect us in a shared
reality, wearable and embedded devices will increasingly allow for our
fundamental perceptions to radically diverge. The coming generations
of augmented reality and brain-computer interfaces will shape our views
according to highly personalized filters. Ultimately, this could create a
world where each individual lives in his or her own digitally layered reality.
Polarization and miscommunication will increase as shared
so
what?
context becomes scarcer, while people and organizations that
can clearly communicate across perceptual layers will gain value.
6 We’ll all see through other people’s eyes
p ers o n al ex p er i en ce culture and so ci ety
i n f o rmat i o n n etwo rks
Virtualization and wearable computing devices will combine to create a
new wave of social technology. The Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset
for 3D gaming, already allows users to virtually explore real environments
from the perspective of a child, and wearable recording devices are
beginning to capture the details of everyday life.
While offering the possibility of amplifying compassion, this new
so
technology also raises privacy issues and creates nearly endless
what?
marketing and customization opportunities for enterprises.
© 2014 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1671A
Christine Peterson, Brian Wang, Eric Stackpole
Romie Littrell, Todd Meyerrose, Josh Perfetto,
Matt Bell, Ian Blumenfeld, Rachel Kalmar,
Special thanks to:
Trent Kuhn, Karin Lubeck | Design Team
Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks,
& Executive Producer
Jean Hagan | Creative Director
Design & Production
Nicolas Weidinger | Research Team
David Pescovitz, Jason Tester,
Alex Goldman, Lyn Jeffery, Mike Liebhold,
Jake Dunagan, Eri Gentry,
Devin Fidler | Project Lead
Sean Ness | Business Development
Nicole Tindall | Program Manager
Rod Falcon | Program Director
Progr am Team
T ech nology H or izons
The Technology Horizon
7 Intelligence moves to the networked edges
i n f o rmat i o n netwo rks di str i buted co mp utati o n
Network processing power is concentrated today at the core (in the
cloud) and on the periphery (in end-point devices), but we will see
increasing intelligence at intermediate processing points. New “hotspots
of smart” in our communications network infrastructure will facilitate
seamless local interactions between diverse networked people and things.
Geography matters in localized processing. Physical spaces
so
with access to intermediate processing can be made smarter
what?
than those with access only to traditional networks.
8 Work becomes programmable
culture and so c i ety i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Early Internet technologies allowed a freer, more open way of
communicating. That transformation naturally led to a revolution
involving commerce. We are on the brink of the next Internet revolution:
coordination. Start-ups and technologies will rush to map and activate
spare capacities and resources—from human skills to legacy assets—
in massively coordinated efforts.
A striking variety of approaches to coordinating everything from
so
resource sharing to complex workflows will upend twentieth-
what?
century models of commerce, work, learning, and productivity.
9 Code becomes law
culture and so c i ety
With sensors and programmable devices everywhere, law enforcement
will become embedded in the environment. It might soon be impossible
for people or machines to do illegal things, a scenario that many
enforcement agents prefer. For example, the EU has proposed that
cars be designed so that they cannot exceed about 70 mph.
so
Governance is shifting from reliance on individual
responsibility and human policing toward a system of
what?
embedded protocols and automatic rule enforcement.
10 Graphene supermaterials spark a nanorevolution
reso urces substances
Improvements in the production of graphene (a two-dimensional material
consisting of a nanoscale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms) are
laying the groundwork for vastly more effective energy systems, faster
chip architectures, stronger plastics, more accurate sensors, and batteries
that last. Manufacturing challenges still exist, but teams of researchers at
Stanford, MIT, and Harvard have found methods using DNA to scaffold
the construction of molecularly perfect graphene structures.
Graphene supermaterials have the potential to revolutionize
so
materials science, creating artifacts that can do seemingly
what?
magical things.
www.iftf.org
Palo Alto, CA 94301
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
in the coming decade.
live, work, and connect with one another
threats, as well as anticipate how we will Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.
and discover new market opportunities and and human identity. The Institute for the
forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, health care to technology, the workplace,
identify the value in new technologies, transformative trends, from health and
beyond the technical capabilities and research spans a broad territory of deeply
holders, and citizens allows IFTF to look to create insights that lead to action. Our
humans as consumers, workers, house­ research generates the foresight needed
the center of our forecasts. Understanding innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
forecasting is unique—we put people at into business strategy, design process,
the future. Our approach to technology We provide our members with insights
strategic tools to better position them for society and the global marketplace.
and communities develop insights and discontinuities that will transform global
three to ten years. We help organizations work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities and innovations in the next forecasting experience. The core of our
societal forces to identify and evaluate group with more than 45 years of
a deep understanding of technology and independent, nonprofit strategic research
The Technology Horizons Program combines The Institute for the Future is an
HOR IZONS PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE
ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT THE I NST ITUTE
11 Magical materials transform digital devices
r es ou rc es
Supermaterials currently under development will transform consumer
electronics as we know them. Memristors, for example, will soon
allow designers to create devices with memory systems that function
more like a brain. Further out, energy-efficient technologies and
supercapacitors could dramatically improve battery performance.
We have become used to basic limitations in the way
so
electronics work, but many future electronic systems will
what?
be limited only by our own imaginations.
12 Waste mining pushes against planned obsolescence
su bsta nc es r eso urc es log istic s i nd ustry
Waste materials will become increasingly valuable as new technologies
offer better ways to extract reusable substances like rare metals from
discarded products. Global energy demands will revitalize the waste
and recycling industries. Already, industrial-scale systems are under
construction by companies such as Enerkem in cities worldwide to
convert nearly all local landfill waste to energy.
Traditional landfills will be our mines of the future as new
so standards, incentives, and technologies emerge to prolong
what?
the life cycle of materials and supplies.
13 The new space race yields innovations on Earth
r es ou rc es logi st ic s
With efforts under way to commercialize spaceflight, governmental
organizations will become customers of entrepreneurial ventures around
medicine, manufacturing, and surveillance funded by private industry.
This decade’s space race will be between companies like SpaceX
jockeying for NASA contracts, third parties such as biotech firms
seeking to do microgravity medical research, and private outfits like
Virgin Galactic cashing in on a boom in space tourism.
The first space race drove breakthroughs in science and
technology that eventually trickled down to civilians. This one,
so
springing directly from the private sector, will likely accelerate
what?
R&D and commercialization of new technologies developed
for, or in, space.
14 Matter routing delivers a new kind of supply web
ne w co mpe t it io n netwo r ke d m atte r log i st ic s data
Rapid innovation in mobile commerce, autonomous vehicles, detailed
urban traffic models, and routing algorithms will begin to string together
end-to-end solutions to route actual things where and when they are
needed. Google’s autonomous car project and early experiments with
drone-based delivery services will finally be commercially deployed.
Supply chains will become far more complex supply webs,
so
and people will be able to access things in real time through
what?
many more channels.
progress. We hope that you consider it an invitation to add your own landmarks and fill in unexplored regions.
This map is just one view of the technology landscape that lies before us. Think about it as a work in
new research, innovative businesses, or other endeavors, demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
and newly opening possibilities. Concrete examples from the world today, including emerging technologies,
navigate the future as it unfolds. Each combinatorial forecast is built on a range of enabling technologies
This Technology Horizon map presents twenty new innovative combinatorial forecasts you can use to
anticipate the future emerging at these intersection points.
and remixed in new and different combinations. Combinatorial forecasting embraces this complexity to
of foundational elements. Over the next decade, many different foundational technologies will get mixed
trends is insufficient. Technological change is increasingly driven by the combination and recombination
innovation, we have revisited the processes we use to build foresight. Linear extrapolation of technological
Against a background of accelerating change, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational
intersection of future possibilities.
a broad look ahead at the amazing technological innovations and disruptions emerging from the
pointing out both technological shifts and transformations. In 2014, we continue this process by taking
Each year, IFTF creates forecasts and maps charting the technology horizon for the next decade—
these emerging technology spaces.
For more than thirty years, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program has been scouting ahead, exploring
experiments hint at things to come.
horizon, as small-scale discoveries, innovations, and
of these new frontiers are already becoming visible on the
of new technology territories. In many cases, the outlines
In the next decade, we will advance into a number
15 The human-machine division of labor rebalances 18 The Internet becomes a network of networks
netwo r ke d m atter lo gist ic s data net wor ked m att er d ist rib uted co mpu tati on
artifi cial i ntelligenc e new co mpeti tio n
On the factory floor, humans will learn to work alongside robot
colleagues that augment and extend human capabilities. Already, Over the coming decade, we will see more specialized networks
BMW is testing “collaborative robots” in its factories that, for example, established as an alternative to the Internet as we know it. For example,
glue parts together that are held in place by more precise human the emergence of services built into the hardware layer of new network
fingers. Kiva Systems is automating the warehouse floor with robots topologies shows promise. This arrangement could dramatically reduce
increasing human productivity. And “social robots” are aiding downtime and lead to new smart grids, inexpensive but high-quality
health-care workers and caregivers in homes and hospitals. video conferencing, and faster financial transactions and swarm
computing clusters. Since existing Internet infrastructures will limit many
We’ll rethink what it means to be human in a world remade
so of these possibilities, we will likely see additional fragmentation through
for machines and embrace the opportunity to do what we’re
what? tailor-made sub-networks. Your experience of the Internet will fragment
uniquely good at while leaving the rest for the machines.
too as entirely new Internets—from finances to health—emerge to leverage
flexibility, efficiency, and security gained in new network arrangements.
16 Local energy production will power the smart grid
Matching more specialized networks to specific applications
reso urces lo gisti cs so will be a functional challenge for organizations, individuals,
As the smart grid begins to take shape, a big push is emerging for what? and network providers. There will be no single Internet but
many Internets.
more localized energy production. The idea is to deploy cheaper
and more climate-friendly solar, wind, and fuel cell technology at
the neighborhood scale, with smart routing and storage. Watch 19 Machines get a social life
for widespread decentralization of energy grids as digital intelligence
d i st r i bute d c om putat i on artific ial i ntelligen ce
and renewable energy technologies drive power production to the
Computation will continue to move away from single-user desktop
edges of our networks.
applications and toward a rich variety of novel forms and architectures.
Complicating the debate about sprawl and land use, this shift
so Ultimately, as machine-to-machine systems mature, these digital
what?
could mean that—as at least one study argues—suburbs are
systems will interact with each other far more than with human users
the most sustainable use of land for distributed solar.
and will cooperate in new ways. MIT researcher David Rose frames
this shift as a transition from traditional computation toward a world
17 The data race shifts gears from information to insights of “enchanted objects.”
netwo r ke d m atter data To a large extent, new computation technologies will
so revolve around finding ways for computers to connect
As sensing and computing become available all the time everywhere,
what? and communicate with each other without people
organizations that can create machine intelligence tools and operating
getting in the way.
practices to blend massive amounts of data from many sources will
move to the forefront of innovation. They will have a competitive advantage
through amplified decision support and complex task management as 20 An algorithm arms race risks a Sorcerer’s
well as new insight into market dynamics and hidden forms of value. Apprentice scenario
The collection of “big data” has gotten a lot of attention, but art ifi ci al i nt ell i genc e new com peti tio n
so the organizations that figure out how to unlock insights by
what? fluidly blending data from many sources will be best positioned
As prediction algorithms are deployed to detect geopolitical and
to serve their market and stakeholders. financial discontinuities, they will increasingly be designed to anticipate
and outdo one another. Once these bots are empowered to act upon
and adjust our increasingly critical connected systems—such as global
markets, smart cities, and social networks, competing programs could
create chaos. Financial trading algorithms, for example, have already
been implicated as the cause of market “flash crashes.”
Chaos caused by competing algorithms could thwart
so
our ultimate goal of fine-tuning systems to avoid
what?
potential problems.

is an unfamiliar territory ...
The future of technology
20 Combinatorial Forecasts: Frontiers of innovation
1 The microbiome mediates the war on germs
l if e sc i ence substances
Increased understanding of the microbiome—the community of micro-
organisms in our bodies—is challenging our long-running obsession
with antibacterial measures. New approaches to staying healthy will
be based on balancing the ecologies of microorganisms: think “bugs,
not drugs.” Indiegogo-funded uBiome is already helping people better
understand their germs by sequencing the bacteria in their bodies.
This new understanding will likely lead to a new wave of
so
what?
probiotic products and perhaps even to seeding babies’
guts with microbial life.
2 Thinking and feeling become quantifiable
l if e sc i ence p erso nal ex p eri ence
Sophisticated brain-imaging technologies and neural modeling using
machine-learning algorithms are promising to enable measurement of
subjective aspects of human experience. Neuroscientists can read
visual images from brain activity. Assigning precise measurements to
feelings like pain through neurofeedback and other techniques could
allow for comparison, modulation, and manipulation of these feelings.
Direct measurement of our once-private thoughts and feelings
so
can help us understand other people’s experience but will also
what?
present challenges regarding privacy and definition of norms.
3 Biomanufacturing unites mother nature with
the man-made
l if e sc i ence substances i nd ustry
As the recent public debut of lab-grown meat hints, bioengineering
technologies are transforming manufacturing. With biomanufacturing,
heretofore associated with the development of pharmaceuticals and
artificial organisms, new biology-based processes will do things that
only machines have previously done. For example, scientists have
recently been able to modify cells to act like fully functional computers.
People and organizations involved in manufacturing
so
and production will face new competitive dynamics
what?
from bio-inspired processes and designs.
2014–2024 20 Forecasts
Combinatorial
The Technology Horizon
4 The cloud coalesces into a global supercomputer
d i str i buted co mp utat i o n i n f o rmati o n netwo rks
n etwo rked matter
No longer simply a way to virtualize enterprise IT or to expand storage
capacity, cloud computing offers a more disruptive capability. It lends
greatly expanded processing power to any computational project, from
personal analytics on your smartphone to enterprise simulations for the
firm. Moreover, as powerful computation becomes ever more embedded
in everyday objects, the internet of things will also run on this cloud
supercomputing network.
As access to cheap, scalable supercomputing in the cloud
so becomes available to any device or app whenever,
what? wherever, it will be put to new uses as a problem-solving
tool even in geographies with resource constraints.
5 Reality will be in the eye of the beholder
p ers o n al ex p er i en ce culture and so ci ety
While technology has traditionally served to connect us in a shared
reality, wearable and embedded devices will increasingly allow for our
fundamental perceptions to radically diverge. The coming generations
of augmented reality and brain-computer interfaces will shape our views
according to highly personalized filters. Ultimately, this could create a
world where each individual lives in his or her own digitally layered reality.
Polarization and miscommunication will increase as shared
so
what?
context becomes scarcer, while people and organizations that
can clearly communicate across perceptual layers will gain value.
6 We’ll all see through other people’s eyes
p ers o n al ex p er i en ce culture and so ci ety
i n f o rmat i o n n etwo rks
Virtualization and wearable computing devices will combine to create a
new wave of social technology. The Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset
for 3D gaming, already allows users to virtually explore real environments
from the perspective of a child, and wearable recording devices are
beginning to capture the details of everyday life.
While offering the possibility of amplifying compassion, this new
so
technology also raises privacy issues and creates nearly endless
what?
marketing and customization opportunities for enterprises.
© 2014 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1671A
Christine Peterson, Brian Wang, Eric Stackpole
Romie Littrell, Todd Meyerrose, Josh Perfetto,
Matt Bell, Ian Blumenfeld, Rachel Kalmar,
Special thanks to:
Trent Kuhn, Karin Lubeck | Design Team
Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks,
& Executive Producer
Jean Hagan | Creative Director
Design & Production
Nicolas Weidinger | Research Team
David Pescovitz, Jason Tester,
Alex Goldman, Lyn Jeffery, Mike Liebhold,
Jake Dunagan, Eri Gentry,
Devin Fidler | Project Lead
Sean Ness | Business Development
Nicole Tindall | Program Manager
Rod Falcon | Program Director
Progr am Team
T ech nology H or izons
The Technology Horizon
7 Intelligence moves to the networked edges
i n f o rmat i o n netwo rks di str i buted co mp utati o n
Network processing power is concentrated today at the core (in the
cloud) and on the periphery (in end-point devices), but we will see
increasing intelligence at intermediate processing points. New “hotspots
of smart” in our communications network infrastructure will facilitate
seamless local interactions between diverse networked people and things.
Geography matters in localized processing. Physical spaces
so
with access to intermediate processing can be made smarter
what?
than those with access only to traditional networks.
8 Work becomes programmable
culture and so c i ety i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Early Internet technologies allowed a freer, more open way of
communicating. That transformation naturally led to a revolution
involving commerce. We are on the brink of the next Internet revolution:
coordination. Start-ups and technologies will rush to map and activate
spare capacities and resources—from human skills to legacy assets—
in massively coordinated efforts.
A striking variety of approaches to coordinating everything from
so
resource sharing to complex workflows will upend twentieth-
what?
century models of commerce, work, learning, and productivity.
9 Code becomes law
culture and so c i ety
With sensors and programmable devices everywhere, law enforcement
will become embedded in the environment. It might soon be impossible
for people or machines to do illegal things, a scenario that many
enforcement agents prefer. For example, the EU has proposed that
cars be designed so that they cannot exceed about 70 mph.
so
Governance is shifting from reliance on individual
responsibility and human policing toward a system of
what?
embedded protocols and automatic rule enforcement.
10 Graphene supermaterials spark a nanorevolution
reso urces substances
Improvements in the production of graphene (a two-dimensional material
consisting of a nanoscale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms) are
laying the groundwork for vastly more effective energy systems, faster
chip architectures, stronger plastics, more accurate sensors, and batteries
that last. Manufacturing challenges still exist, but teams of researchers at
Stanford, MIT, and Harvard have found methods using DNA to scaffold
the construction of molecularly perfect graphene structures.
Graphene supermaterials have the potential to revolutionize
so
materials science, creating artifacts that can do seemingly
what?
magical things.
www.iftf.org
Palo Alto, CA 94301
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
in the coming decade.
live, work, and connect with one another
threats, as well as anticipate how we will Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.
and discover new market opportunities and and human identity. The Institute for the
forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, health care to technology, the workplace,
identify the value in new technologies, transformative trends, from health and
beyond the technical capabilities and research spans a broad territory of deeply
holders, and citizens allows IFTF to look to create insights that lead to action. Our
humans as consumers, workers, house­ research generates the foresight needed
the center of our forecasts. Understanding innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
forecasting is unique—we put people at into business strategy, design process,
the future. Our approach to technology We provide our members with insights
strategic tools to better position them for society and the global marketplace.
and communities develop insights and discontinuities that will transform global
three to ten years. We help organizations work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities and innovations in the next forecasting experience. The core of our
societal forces to identify and evaluate group with more than 45 years of
a deep understanding of technology and independent, nonprofit strategic research
The Technology Horizons Program combines The Institute for the Future is an
HOR IZONS PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE
ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT THE I NST ITUTE
11 Magical materials transform digital devices
r es ou rc es
Supermaterials currently under development will transform consumer
electronics as we know them. Memristors, for example, will soon
allow designers to create devices with memory systems that function
more like a brain. Further out, energy-efficient technologies and
supercapacitors could dramatically improve battery performance.
We have become used to basic limitations in the way
so
electronics work, but many future electronic systems will
what?
be limited only by our own imaginations.
12 Waste mining pushes against planned obsolescence
su bsta nc es r eso urc es log istic s i nd ustry
Waste materials will become increasingly valuable as new technologies
offer better ways to extract reusable substances like rare metals from
discarded products. Global energy demands will revitalize the waste
and recycling industries. Already, industrial-scale systems are under
construction by companies such as Enerkem in cities worldwide to
convert nearly all local landfill waste to energy.
Traditional landfills will be our mines of the future as new
so standards, incentives, and technologies emerge to prolong
what?
the life cycle of materials and supplies.
13 The new space race yields innovations on Earth
r es ou rc es logi st ic s
With efforts under way to commercialize spaceflight, governmental
organizations will become customers of entrepreneurial ventures around
medicine, manufacturing, and surveillance funded by private industry.
This decade’s space race will be between companies like SpaceX
jockeying for NASA contracts, third parties such as biotech firms
seeking to do microgravity medical research, and private outfits like
Virgin Galactic cashing in on a boom in space tourism.
The first space race drove breakthroughs in science and
technology that eventually trickled down to civilians. This one,
so
springing directly from the private sector, will likely accelerate
what?
R&D and commercialization of new technologies developed
for, or in, space.
14 Matter routing delivers a new kind of supply web
ne w co mpe t it io n netwo r ke d m atte r log i st ic s data
Rapid innovation in mobile commerce, autonomous vehicles, detailed
urban traffic models, and routing algorithms will begin to string together
end-to-end solutions to route actual things where and when they are
needed. Google’s autonomous car project and early experiments with
drone-based delivery services will finally be commercially deployed.
Supply chains will become far more complex supply webs,
so
and people will be able to access things in real time through
what?
many more channels.
progress. We hope that you consider it an invitation to add your own landmarks and fill in unexplored regions.
This map is just one view of the technology landscape that lies before us. Think about it as a work in
new research, innovative businesses, or other endeavors, demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
and newly opening possibilities. Concrete examples from the world today, including emerging technologies,
navigate the future as it unfolds. Each combinatorial forecast is built on a range of enabling technologies
This Technology Horizon map presents twenty new innovative combinatorial forecasts you can use to
anticipate the future emerging at these intersection points.
and remixed in new and different combinations. Combinatorial forecasting embraces this complexity to
of foundational elements. Over the next decade, many different foundational technologies will get mixed
trends is insufficient. Technological change is increasingly driven by the combination and recombination
innovation, we have revisited the processes we use to build foresight. Linear extrapolation of technological
Against a background of accelerating change, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational
intersection of future possibilities.
a broad look ahead at the amazing technological innovations and disruptions emerging from the
pointing out both technological shifts and transformations. In 2014, we continue this process by taking
Each year, IFTF creates forecasts and maps charting the technology horizon for the next decade—
these emerging technology spaces.
For more than thirty years, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program has been scouting ahead, exploring
experiments hint at things to come.
horizon, as small-scale discoveries, innovations, and
of these new frontiers are already becoming visible on the
of new technology territories. In many cases, the outlines
In the next decade, we will advance into a number
15 The human-machine division of labor rebalances 18 The Internet becomes a network of networks
netwo r ke d m atter lo gist ic s data net wor ked m att er d ist rib uted co mpu tati on
artifi cial i ntelligenc e new co mpeti tio n
On the factory floor, humans will learn to work alongside robot
colleagues that augment and extend human capabilities. Already, Over the coming decade, we will see more specialized networks
BMW is testing “collaborative robots” in its factories that, for example, established as an alternative to the Internet as we know it. For example,
glue parts together that are held in place by more precise human the emergence of services built into the hardware layer of new network
fingers. Kiva Systems is automating the warehouse floor with robots topologies shows promise. This arrangement could dramatically reduce
increasing human productivity. And “social robots” are aiding downtime and lead to new smart grids, inexpensive but high-quality
health-care workers and caregivers in homes and hospitals. video conferencing, and faster financial transactions and swarm
computing clusters. Since existing Internet infrastructures will limit many
We’ll rethink what it means to be human in a world remade
so of these possibilities, we will likely see additional fragmentation through
for machines and embrace the opportunity to do what we’re
what? tailor-made sub-networks. Your experience of the Internet will fragment
uniquely good at while leaving the rest for the machines.
too as entirely new Internets—from finances to health—emerge to leverage
flexibility, efficiency, and security gained in new network arrangements.
16 Local energy production will power the smart grid
Matching more specialized networks to specific applications
reso urces lo gisti cs so will be a functional challenge for organizations, individuals,
As the smart grid begins to take shape, a big push is emerging for what? and network providers. There will be no single Internet but
many Internets.
more localized energy production. The idea is to deploy cheaper
and more climate-friendly solar, wind, and fuel cell technology at
the neighborhood scale, with smart routing and storage. Watch 19 Machines get a social life
for widespread decentralization of energy grids as digital intelligence
d i st r i bute d c om putat i on artific ial i ntelligen ce
and renewable energy technologies drive power production to the
Computation will continue to move away from single-user desktop
edges of our networks.
applications and toward a rich variety of novel forms and architectures.
Complicating the debate about sprawl and land use, this shift
so Ultimately, as machine-to-machine systems mature, these digital
what?
could mean that—as at least one study argues—suburbs are
systems will interact with each other far more than with human users
the most sustainable use of land for distributed solar.
and will cooperate in new ways. MIT researcher David Rose frames
this shift as a transition from traditional computation toward a world
17 The data race shifts gears from information to insights of “enchanted objects.”
netwo r ke d m atter data To a large extent, new computation technologies will
so revolve around finding ways for computers to connect
As sensing and computing become available all the time everywhere,
what? and communicate with each other without people
organizations that can create machine intelligence tools and operating
getting in the way.
practices to blend massive amounts of data from many sources will
move to the forefront of innovation. They will have a competitive advantage
through amplified decision support and complex task management as 20 An algorithm arms race risks a Sorcerer’s
well as new insight into market dynamics and hidden forms of value. Apprentice scenario
The collection of “big data” has gotten a lot of attention, but art ifi ci al i nt ell i genc e new com peti tio n
so the organizations that figure out how to unlock insights by
what? fluidly blending data from many sources will be best positioned
As prediction algorithms are deployed to detect geopolitical and
to serve their market and stakeholders. financial discontinuities, they will increasingly be designed to anticipate
and outdo one another. Once these bots are empowered to act upon
and adjust our increasingly critical connected systems—such as global
markets, smart cities, and social networks, competing programs could
create chaos. Financial trading algorithms, for example, have already
been implicated as the cause of market “flash crashes.”
Chaos caused by competing algorithms could thwart
so
our ultimate goal of fine-tuning systems to avoid
what?
potential problems.

is an unfamiliar territory ...
The future of technology
20 Combinatorial Forecasts: Frontiers of innovation
1 The microbiome mediates the war on germs
l if e sc i ence substances
Increased understanding of the microbiome—the community of micro-
organisms in our bodies—is challenging our long-running obsession
with antibacterial measures. New approaches to staying healthy will
be based on balancing the ecologies of microorganisms: think “bugs,
not drugs.” Indiegogo-funded uBiome is already helping people better
understand their germs by sequencing the bacteria in their bodies.
This new understanding will likely lead to a new wave of
so
what?
probiotic products and perhaps even to seeding babies’
guts with microbial life.
2 Thinking and feeling become quantifiable
l if e sc i ence p erso nal ex p eri ence
Sophisticated brain-imaging technologies and neural modeling using
machine-learning algorithms are promising to enable measurement of
subjective aspects of human experience. Neuroscientists can read
visual images from brain activity. Assigning precise measurements to
feelings like pain through neurofeedback and other techniques could
allow for comparison, modulation, and manipulation of these feelings.
Direct measurement of our once-private thoughts and feelings
so
can help us understand other people’s experience but will also
what?
present challenges regarding privacy and definition of norms.
3 Biomanufacturing unites mother nature with
the man-made
l if e sc i ence substances i nd ustry
As the recent public debut of lab-grown meat hints, bioengineering
technologies are transforming manufacturing. With biomanufacturing,
heretofore associated with the development of pharmaceuticals and
artificial organisms, new biology-based processes will do things that
only machines have previously done. For example, scientists have
recently been able to modify cells to act like fully functional computers.
People and organizations involved in manufacturing
so
and production will face new competitive dynamics
what?
from bio-inspired processes and designs.
2014–2024 20 Forecasts
Combinatorial
The Technology Horizon
4 The cloud coalesces into a global supercomputer
d i str i buted co mp utat i o n i n f o rmati o n netwo rks
n etwo rked matter
No longer simply a way to virtualize enterprise IT or to expand storage
capacity, cloud computing offers a more disruptive capability. It lends
greatly expanded processing power to any computational project, from
personal analytics on your smartphone to enterprise simulations for the
firm. Moreover, as powerful computation becomes ever more embedded
in everyday objects, the internet of things will also run on this cloud
supercomputing network.
As access to cheap, scalable supercomputing in the cloud
so becomes available to any device or app whenever,
what? wherever, it will be put to new uses as a problem-solving
tool even in geographies with resource constraints.
5 Reality will be in the eye of the beholder
p ers o n al ex p er i en ce culture and so ci ety
While technology has traditionally served to connect us in a shared
reality, wearable and embedded devices will increasingly allow for our
fundamental perceptions to radically diverge. The coming generations
of augmented reality and brain-computer interfaces will shape our views
according to highly personalized filters. Ultimately, this could create a
world where each individual lives in his or her own digitally layered reality.
Polarization and miscommunication will increase as shared
so
what?
context becomes scarcer, while people and organizations that
can clearly communicate across perceptual layers will gain value.
6 We’ll all see through other people’s eyes
p ers o n al ex p er i en ce culture and so ci ety
i n f o rmat i o n n etwo rks
Virtualization and wearable computing devices will combine to create a
new wave of social technology. The Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset
for 3D gaming, already allows users to virtually explore real environments
from the perspective of a child, and wearable recording devices are
beginning to capture the details of everyday life.
While offering the possibility of amplifying compassion, this new
so
technology also raises privacy issues and creates nearly endless
what?
marketing and customization opportunities for enterprises.
© 2014 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1671A
Christine Peterson, Brian Wang, Eric Stackpole
Romie Littrell, Todd Meyerrose, Josh Perfetto,
Matt Bell, Ian Blumenfeld, Rachel Kalmar,
Special thanks to:
Trent Kuhn, Karin Lubeck | Design Team
Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks,
& Executive Producer
Jean Hagan | Creative Director
Design & Production
Nicolas Weidinger | Research Team
David Pescovitz, Jason Tester,
Alex Goldman, Lyn Jeffery, Mike Liebhold,
Jake Dunagan, Eri Gentry,
Devin Fidler | Project Lead
Sean Ness | Business Development
Nicole Tindall | Program Manager
Rod Falcon | Program Director
Progr am Team
T ech nology H or izons
The Technology Horizon
7 Intelligence moves to the networked edges
i n f o rmat i o n netwo rks di str i buted co mp utati o n
Network processing power is concentrated today at the core (in the
cloud) and on the periphery (in end-point devices), but we will see
increasing intelligence at intermediate processing points. New “hotspots
of smart” in our communications network infrastructure will facilitate
seamless local interactions between diverse networked people and things.
Geography matters in localized processing. Physical spaces
so
with access to intermediate processing can be made smarter
what?
than those with access only to traditional networks.
8 Work becomes programmable
culture and so c i ety i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Early Internet technologies allowed a freer, more open way of
communicating. That transformation naturally led to a revolution
involving commerce. We are on the brink of the next Internet revolution:
coordination. Start-ups and technologies will rush to map and activate
spare capacities and resources—from human skills to legacy assets—
in massively coordinated efforts.
A striking variety of approaches to coordinating everything from
so
resource sharing to complex workflows will upend twentieth-
what?
century models of commerce, work, learning, and productivity.
9 Code becomes law
culture and so c i ety
With sensors and programmable devices everywhere, law enforcement
will become embedded in the environment. It might soon be impossible
for people or machines to do illegal things, a scenario that many
enforcement agents prefer. For example, the EU has proposed that
cars be designed so that they cannot exceed about 70 mph.
so
Governance is shifting from reliance on individual
responsibility and human policing toward a system of
what?
embedded protocols and automatic rule enforcement.
10 Graphene supermaterials spark a nanorevolution
reso urces substances
Improvements in the production of graphene (a two-dimensional material
consisting of a nanoscale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms) are
laying the groundwork for vastly more effective energy systems, faster
chip architectures, stronger plastics, more accurate sensors, and batteries
that last. Manufacturing challenges still exist, but teams of researchers at
Stanford, MIT, and Harvard have found methods using DNA to scaffold
the construction of molecularly perfect graphene structures.
Graphene supermaterials have the potential to revolutionize
so
materials science, creating artifacts that can do seemingly
what?
magical things.
www.iftf.org
Palo Alto, CA 94301
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
in the coming decade.
live, work, and connect with one another
threats, as well as anticipate how we will Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.
and discover new market opportunities and and human identity. The Institute for the
forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, health care to technology, the workplace,
identify the value in new technologies, transformative trends, from health and
beyond the technical capabilities and research spans a broad territory of deeply
holders, and citizens allows IFTF to look to create insights that lead to action. Our
humans as consumers, workers, house­ research generates the foresight needed
the center of our forecasts. Understanding innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
forecasting is unique—we put people at into business strategy, design process,
the future. Our approach to technology We provide our members with insights
strategic tools to better position them for society and the global marketplace.
and communities develop insights and discontinuities that will transform global
three to ten years. We help organizations work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities and innovations in the next forecasting experience. The core of our
societal forces to identify and evaluate group with more than 45 years of
a deep understanding of technology and independent, nonprofit strategic research
The Technology Horizons Program combines The Institute for the Future is an
HOR IZONS PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE
ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT THE I NST ITUTE
11 Magical materials transform digital devices
r es ou rc es
Supermaterials currently under development will transform consumer
electronics as we know them. Memristors, for example, will soon
allow designers to create devices with memory systems that function
more like a brain. Further out, energy-efficient technologies and
supercapacitors could dramatically improve battery performance.
We have become used to basic limitations in the way
so
electronics work, but many future electronic systems will
what?
be limited only by our own imaginations.
12 Waste mining pushes against planned obsolescence
su bsta nc es r eso urc es log istic s i nd ustry
Waste materials will become increasingly valuable as new technologies
offer better ways to extract reusable substances like rare metals from
discarded products. Global energy demands will revitalize the waste
and recycling industries. Already, industrial-scale systems are under
construction by companies such as Enerkem in cities worldwide to
convert nearly all local landfill waste to energy.
Traditional landfills will be our mines of the future as new
so standards, incentives, and technologies emerge to prolong
what?
the life cycle of materials and supplies.
13 The new space race yields innovations on Earth
r es ou rc es logi st ic s
With efforts under way to commercialize spaceflight, governmental
organizations will become customers of entrepreneurial ventures around
medicine, manufacturing, and surveillance funded by private industry.
This decade’s space race will be between companies like SpaceX
jockeying for NASA contracts, third parties such as biotech firms
seeking to do microgravity medical research, and private outfits like
Virgin Galactic cashing in on a boom in space tourism.
The first space race drove breakthroughs in science and
technology that eventually trickled down to civilians. This one,
so
springing directly from the private sector, will likely accelerate
what?
R&D and commercialization of new technologies developed
for, or in, space.
14 Matter routing delivers a new kind of supply web
ne w co mpe t it io n netwo r ke d m atte r log i st ic s data
Rapid innovation in mobile commerce, autonomous vehicles, detailed
urban traffic models, and routing algorithms will begin to string together
end-to-end solutions to route actual things where and when they are
needed. Google’s autonomous car project and early experiments with
drone-based delivery services will finally be commercially deployed.
Supply chains will become far more complex supply webs,
so
and people will be able to access things in real time through
what?
many more channels.
progress. We hope that you consider it an invitation to add your own landmarks and fill in unexplored regions.
This map is just one view of the technology landscape that lies before us. Think about it as a work in
new research, innovative businesses, or other endeavors, demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
and newly opening possibilities. Concrete examples from the world today, including emerging technologies,
navigate the future as it unfolds. Each combinatorial forecast is built on a range of enabling technologies
This Technology Horizon map presents twenty new innovative combinatorial forecasts you can use to
anticipate the future emerging at these intersection points.
and remixed in new and different combinations. Combinatorial forecasting embraces this complexity to
of foundational elements. Over the next decade, many different foundational technologies will get mixed
trends is insufficient. Technological change is increasingly driven by the combination and recombination
innovation, we have revisited the processes we use to build foresight. Linear extrapolation of technological
Against a background of accelerating change, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational
intersection of future possibilities.
a broad look ahead at the amazing technological innovations and disruptions emerging from the
pointing out both technological shifts and transformations. In 2014, we continue this process by taking
Each year, IFTF creates forecasts and maps charting the technology horizon for the next decade—
these emerging technology spaces.
For more than thirty years, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program has been scouting ahead, exploring
experiments hint at things to come.
horizon, as small-scale discoveries, innovations, and
of these new frontiers are already becoming visible on the
of new technology territories. In many cases, the outlines
In the next decade, we will advance into a number
15 The human-machine division of labor rebalances 18 The Internet becomes a network of networks
netwo r ke d m atter lo gist ic s data net wor ked m att er d ist rib uted co mpu tati on
artifi cial i ntelligenc e new co mpeti tio n
On the factory floor, humans will learn to work alongside robot
colleagues that augment and extend human capabilities. Already, Over the coming decade, we will see more specialized networks
BMW is testing “collaborative robots” in its factories that, for example, established as an alternative to the Internet as we know it. For example,
glue parts together that are held in place by more precise human the emergence of services built into the hardware layer of new network
fingers. Kiva Systems is automating the warehouse floor with robots topologies shows promise. This arrangement could dramatically reduce
increasing human productivity. And “social robots” are aiding downtime and lead to new smart grids, inexpensive but high-quality
health-care workers and caregivers in homes and hospitals. video conferencing, and faster financial transactions and swarm
computing clusters. Since existing Internet infrastructures will limit many
We’ll rethink what it means to be human in a world remade
so of these possibilities, we will likely see additional fragmentation through
for machines and embrace the opportunity to do what we’re
what? tailor-made sub-networks. Your experience of the Internet will fragment
uniquely good at while leaving the rest for the machines.
too as entirely new Internets—from finances to health—emerge to leverage
flexibility, efficiency, and security gained in new network arrangements.
16 Local energy production will power the smart grid
Matching more specialized networks to specific applications
reso urces lo gisti cs so will be a functional challenge for organizations, individuals,
As the smart grid begins to take shape, a big push is emerging for what? and network providers. There will be no single Internet but
many Internets.
more localized energy production. The idea is to deploy cheaper
and more climate-friendly solar, wind, and fuel cell technology at
the neighborhood scale, with smart routing and storage. Watch 19 Machines get a social life
for widespread decentralization of energy grids as digital intelligence
d i st r i bute d c om putat i on artific ial i ntelligen ce
and renewable energy technologies drive power production to the
Computation will continue to move away from single-user desktop
edges of our networks.
applications and toward a rich variety of novel forms and architectures.
Complicating the debate about sprawl and land use, this shift
so Ultimately, as machine-to-machine systems mature, these digital
what?
could mean that—as at least one study argues—suburbs are
systems will interact with each other far more than with human users
the most sustainable use of land for distributed solar.
and will cooperate in new ways. MIT researcher David Rose frames
this shift as a transition from traditional computation toward a world
17 The data race shifts gears from information to insights of “enchanted objects.”
netwo r ke d m atter data To a large extent, new computation technologies will
so revolve around finding ways for computers to connect
As sensing and computing become available all the time everywhere,
what? and communicate with each other without people
organizations that can create machine intelligence tools and operating
getting in the way.
practices to blend massive amounts of data from many sources will
move to the forefront of innovation. They will have a competitive advantage
through amplified decision support and complex task management as 20 An algorithm arms race risks a Sorcerer’s
well as new insight into market dynamics and hidden forms of value. Apprentice scenario
The collection of “big data” has gotten a lot of attention, but art ifi ci al i nt ell i genc e new com peti tio n
so the organizations that figure out how to unlock insights by
what? fluidly blending data from many sources will be best positioned
As prediction algorithms are deployed to detect geopolitical and
to serve their market and stakeholders. financial discontinuities, they will increasingly be designed to anticipate
and outdo one another. Once these bots are empowered to act upon
and adjust our increasingly critical connected systems—such as global
markets, smart cities, and social networks, competing programs could
create chaos. Financial trading algorithms, for example, have already
been implicated as the cause of market “flash crashes.”
Chaos caused by competing algorithms could thwart
so
our ultimate goal of fine-tuning systems to avoid
what?
potential problems.
 life science
6 We’ll all see through
The Technology Horizon
Modifications in our

20
Combinatorial approaches to genetics, organisms, P ERSONAL E X P ERIENCE other people’s eyes
Forecasts
biomaterials, and ecology Developments impacting the ways CULTURE
that we perceive and interface with the world
2 Thinking and feeling AN D
become quantifiable SOCIET Y
Frontiers of Innovation Shifts that affect
The future of technology is an unfamiliar our connections to
territory. The landscape of technologies on other individuals
this map reveals a territory shaped by new 5 Reality will be in the and groups
combinations of foundational elements. Look
eye of the beholder
out for transformations in this landscape as
1 The microbiome
technology mashups generate unprecedented
opportunities for disruption.
mediates the war on germs
This technology horizon map is designed to help you
anticipate the future of combinatorial innovations
emerging at the intersection of distinct territories.
It is therefore important to understand that multiple 8 Work becomes programmable
territories shape each forecast. Understanding what
these territories look like in the coming decade requires
us to focus in on the intersections where territories INFOR M ATION NET W OR K S
blur and the future emerges.
3 Biomanufacturing unites Refinements in the structure of the Internet
Use the map to visualize the whole range of innovations
mother nature with the man-made and the web of digital links around us
and see the bigger picture—a more interconnected
technology landscape.

• Consider the other forecasts nearby as you

read through each forecast.

• Develop your own insights about how forecasts 4 The cloud coalesces
impact each other. into a global supercomputer
• Anticipate the future by identifying which s u b s ta n c e s
territories on the map are most transformative or Advances in materials
disruptive to your future.
science, engineering, and
9 Code becomes law
physical processes 7 Intelligence moves to
This map is organized around 20 combinatorial
forecasts. These are the big stories, the hot spots that
the networked edges
will shape the landscape of technology in the coming
decade. Each combinatorial forecast emerges from the
intersection of multiple territories. NET W OR K E D M ATTER
Innovations in the ways that everyday
15 The human-machine division objects communicate and “think”
of labor rebalances

IN D USTR Y
19 Machines get a social life
13 territories, or frontiers of innovation, define the land-
scape of the map. Each forecast shares common ground Upheavals in manufacturing 14 Matter routing delivers
and takes place at the intersection of up to 4 territories. and production processes
a new kind of supply web
D ISTRIBUTE D
CO M P UTATION
New ways that digital processing
is being used and organized
12 Waste mining pushes
against planned obsolescence
18 The Internet becomes
a network of networks
LO G ISTICS
Evolutions in the physical transportation
and coordination of people and things
ARTIFICIAL INTELLI G ENCE
15 The human-machine Frontiers in software and machine cognition
13 The new space race division of labor rebalances
10 Graphene supermaterials yields innovations on Earth
spark a nanorevolution

17 The data race shifts gears

from information to insights 20 An algorithm arms race risks a
Sorcerer’s Apprentice scenario

11 Magical materials
transform digital devices D ATA
16 Local energy production New applications for facts NE W CO M P ETITION
resources and statistics being collected Adjustments in the competitive
Changes in the availability will power the smart grid
by smart systems landscape and commercial opportunities
and use of raw materials

is an unfamiliar territory ...
The future of technology
20 Combinatorial Forecasts: Frontiers of innovation
1 The microbiome mediates the war on germs
lif e sc i ence substances
Increased understanding of the microbiome—the community of micro-
organisms in our bodies—is challenging our long-running obsession
with antibacterial measures. New approaches to staying healthy will
be based on balancing the ecologies of microorganisms: think “bugs,
not drugs.” Indiegogo-funded uBiome is already helping people better
understand their germs by sequencing the bacteria in their bodies.
This new understanding will likely lead to a new wave of
so
probiotic products and perhaps even to seeding babies’
what?
guts with microbial life.
2 Thinking and feeling become quantifiable
lif e sc i ence perso nal experience
Sophisticated brain-imaging technologies and neural modeling using
machine-learning algorithms are promising to enable measurement of
subjective aspects of human experience. Neuroscientists can read
visual images from brain activity. Assigning precise measurements to
feelings like pain through neurofeedback and other techniques could
allow for comparison, modulation, and manipulation of these feelings.
Direct measurement of our once-private thoughts and feelings
so
can help us understand other people’s experience but will also
what?
present challenges regarding privacy and definition of norms.
3 Biomanufacturing unites mother nature with
the man-made
lif e sc i ence substances i nd ustry
As the recent public debut of lab-grown meat hints, bioengineering
technologies are transforming manufacturing. With biomanufacturing,
heretofore associated with the development of pharmaceuticals and
artificial organisms, new biology-based processes will do things that
only machines have previously done. For example, scientists have
recently been able to modify cells to act like fully functional computers.
People and organizations involved in manufacturing
so
and production will face new competitive dynamics
what?
from bio-inspired processes and designs.
Combinatorial
2014–2024 20 Forecasts
The Technology Horizon
4 The cloud coalesces into a global supercomputer
d i str i buted co mputat i o n inf o rmati o n netwo rks
netwo rked matter
No longer simply a way to virtualize enterprise IT or to expand storage
capacity, cloud computing offers a more disruptive capability. It lends
greatly expanded processing power to any computational project, from
personal analytics on your smartphone to enterprise simulations for the
firm. Moreover, as powerful computation becomes ever more embedded
in everyday objects, the internet of things will also run on this cloud
supercomputing network.
As access to cheap, scalable supercomputing in the cloud
so becomes available to any device or app whenever,
what? wherever, it will be put to new uses as a problem-solving
tool even in geographies with resource constraints.
5 Reality will be in the eye of the beholder
perso nal exper i ence culture and so ci ety
While technology has traditionally served to connect us in a shared
reality, wearable and embedded devices will increasingly allow for our
fundamental perceptions to radically diverge. The coming generations
of augmented reality and brain-computer interfaces will shape our views
according to highly personalized filters. Ultimately, this could create a
world where each individual lives in his or her own digitally layered reality.
Polarization and miscommunication will increase as shared
so
context becomes scarcer, while people and organizations that
what?
can clearly communicate across perceptual layers will gain value.
6 We’ll all see through other people’s eyes
perso nal exper i ence culture and so ci ety
i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Virtualization and wearable computing devices will combine to create a
new wave of social technology. The Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset
for 3D gaming, already allows users to virtually explore real environments
from the perspective of a child, and wearable recording devices are
beginning to capture the details of everyday life.
While offering the possibility of amplifying compassion, this new
so
technology also raises privacy issues and creates nearly endless
what?
marketing and customization opportunities for enterprises.
© 2014 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1671A
Christine Peterson, Brian Wang, Eric Stackpole
Romie Littrell, Todd Meyerrose, Josh Perfetto,
Matt Bell, Ian Blumenfeld, Rachel Kalmar,
Special thanks to:
Trent Kuhn, Karin Lubeck | Design Team
Robin Bogott, Dylan Hendricks,
& Executive Producer
Jean Hagan | Creative Director
Design & Production
Nicolas Weidinger | Research Team
David Pescovitz, Jason Tester,
Alex Goldman, Lyn Jeffery, Mike Liebhold,
Jake Dunagan, Eri Gentry,
Devin Fidler | Project Lead
Sean Ness | Business Development
Nicole Tindall | Program Manager
Rod Falcon | Program Director
Pro gr am T eam
T ech n o lo gy H o r izo n s
The Technology Horizon
7 Intelligence moves to the networked edges
i n f o rmat i o n netwo rks di str i buted co mputati o n
Network processing power is concentrated today at the core (in the
cloud) and on the periphery (in end-point devices), but we will see
increasing intelligence at intermediate processing points. New “hotspots
of smart” in our communications network infrastructure will facilitate
seamless local interactions between diverse networked people and things.
Geography matters in localized processing. Physical spaces
so
with access to intermediate processing can be made smarter
what?
than those with access only to traditional networks.
8 Work becomes programmable
culture and so c i ety i nfo rmat io n netwo rks
Early Internet technologies allowed a freer, more open way of
communicating. That transformation naturally led to a revolution
involving commerce. We are on the brink of the next Internet revolution:
coordination. Start-ups and technologies will rush to map and activate
spare capacities and resources—from human skills to legacy assets—
in massively coordinated efforts.
A striking variety of approaches to coordinating everything from
so
resource sharing to complex workflows will upend twentieth-
what?
century models of commerce, work, learning, and productivity.
9 Code becomes law
culture and so c i ety
With sensors and programmable devices everywhere, law enforcement
will become embedded in the environment. It might soon be impossible
for people or machines to do illegal things, a scenario that many
enforcement agents prefer. For example, the EU has proposed that
cars be designed so that they cannot exceed about 70 mph.
Governance is shifting from reliance on individual
so
responsibility and human policing toward a system of
what?
embedded protocols and automatic rule enforcement.
10 Graphene supermaterials spark a nanorevolution
reso urces substances
Improvements in the production of graphene (a two-dimensional material
consisting of a nanoscale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms) are
laying the groundwork for vastly more effective energy systems, faster
chip architectures, stronger plastics, more accurate sensors, and batteries
that last. Manufacturing challenges still exist, but teams of researchers at
Stanford, MIT, and Harvard have found methods using DNA to scaffold
the construction of molecularly perfect graphene structures.
Graphene supermaterials have the potential to revolutionize
so
materials science, creating artifacts that can do seemingly
what?
magical things.
www.iftf.org
Palo Alto, CA 94301
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
in the coming decade.
live, work, and connect with one another
threats, as well as anticipate how we will Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.
and discover new market opportunities and and human identity. The Institute for the
forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, health care to technology, the workplace,
identify the value in new technologies, transformative trends, from health and
beyond the technical capabilities and research spans a broad territory of deeply
holders, and citizens allows IFTF to look to create insights that lead to action. Our
humans as consumers, workers, house­ research generates the foresight needed
the center of our forecasts. Understanding innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
forecasting is unique—we put people at into business strategy, design process,
the future. Our approach to technology We provide our members with insights
strategic tools to better position them for society and the global marketplace.
and communities develop insights and discontinuities that will transform global
three to ten years. We help organizations work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities and innovations in the next forecasting experience. The core of our
societal forces to identify and evaluate group with more than 45 years of
a deep understanding of technology and independent, nonprofit strategic research
The Technology Horizons Program combines The Institute for the Future is an
HOR I ZONS PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE
ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT THE I NST I TUTE
11 Magical materials transform digital devices
r esou rc es
Supermaterials currently under development will transform consumer
electronics as we know them. Memristors, for example, will soon
allow designers to create devices with memory systems that function
more like a brain. Further out, energy-efficient technologies and
supercapacitors could dramatically improve battery performance.
We have become used to basic limitations in the way
so
electronics work, but many future electronic systems will
what?
be limited only by our own imaginations.
12 Waste mining pushes against planned obsolescence
su bstanc es r esou rc es log istic s indu stry
Waste materials will become increasingly valuable as new technologies
offer better ways to extract reusable substances like rare metals from
discarded products. Global energy demands will revitalize the waste
and recycling industries. Already, industrial-scale systems are under
construction by companies such as Enerkem in cities worldwide to
convert nearly all local landfill waste to energy.
Traditional landfills will be our mines of the future as new
so standards, incentives, and technologies emerge to prolong
what?
the life cycle of materials and supplies.
13 The new space race yields innovations on Earth
r esou rc es logi st i c s
With efforts under way to commercialize spaceflight, governmental
organizations will become customers of entrepreneurial ventures around
medicine, manufacturing, and surveillance funded by private industry.
This decade’s space race will be between companies like SpaceX
jockeying for NASA contracts, third parties such as biotech firms
seeking to do microgravity medical research, and private outfits like
Virgin Galactic cashing in on a boom in space tourism.
The first space race drove breakthroughs in science and
technology that eventually trickled down to civilians. This one,
so
springing directly from the private sector, will likely accelerate
what?
R&D and commercialization of new technologies developed
for, or in, space.
14 Matter routing delivers a new kind of supply web
ne w c omp e t it ion ne twor ke d matte r log ist ic s data
Rapid innovation in mobile commerce, autonomous vehicles, detailed
urban traffic models, and routing algorithms will begin to string together
end-to-end solutions to route actual things where and when they are
needed. Google’s autonomous car project and early experiments with
drone-based delivery services will finally be commercially deployed.
Supply chains will become far more complex supply webs,
so
and people will be able to access things in real time through
what?
many more channels.
progress. We hope that you consider it an invitation to add your own landmarks and fill in unexplored regions.
This map is just one view of the technology landscape that lies before us. Think about it as a work in
new research, innovative businesses, or other endeavors, demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.
and newly opening possibilities. Concrete examples from the world today, including emerging technologies,
navigate the future as it unfolds. Each combinatorial forecast is built on a range of enabling technologies
This Technology Horizon map presents twenty new innovative combinatorial forecasts you can use to
anticipate the future emerging at these intersection points.
and remixed in new and different combinations. Combinatorial forecasting embraces this complexity to
of foundational elements. Over the next decade, many different foundational technologies will get mixed
trends is insufficient. Technological change is increasingly driven by the combination and recombination
innovation, we have revisited the processes we use to build foresight. Linear extrapolation of technological
Against a background of accelerating change, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational
intersection of future possibilities.
a broad look ahead at the amazing technological innovations and disruptions emerging from the
pointing out both technological shifts and transformations. In 2014, we continue this process by taking
Each year, IFTF creates forecasts and maps charting the technology horizon for the next decade—
these emerging technology spaces.
For more than thirty years, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program has been scouting ahead, exploring
experiments hint at things to come.
horizon, as small-scale discoveries, innovations, and
of these new frontiers are already becoming visible on the
of new technology territories. In many cases, the outlines
In the next decade, we will advance into a number
15 The human-machine division of labor rebalances 18 The Internet becomes a network of networks
ne twor ke d matte r logist i c s data n e t wo rk e d m at t e r di st ri bu t e d c om p utati on
art ifi ci al i n t e llige nc e ne w c om p e titi on
On the factory floor, humans will learn to work alongside robot
colleagues that augment and extend human capabilities. Already, Over the coming decade, we will see more specialized networks
BMW is testing “collaborative robots” in its factories that, for example, established as an alternative to the Internet as we know it. For example,
glue parts together that are held in place by more precise human the emergence of services built into the hardware layer of new network
fingers. Kiva Systems is automating the warehouse floor with robots topologies shows promise. This arrangement could dramatically reduce
increasing human productivity. And “social robots” are aiding downtime and lead to new smart grids, inexpensive but high-quality
health-care workers and caregivers in homes and hospitals. video conferencing, and faster financial transactions and swarm
computing clusters. Since existing Internet infrastructures will limit many
We’ll rethink what it means to be human in a world remade
so of these possibilities, we will likely see additional fragmentation through
for machines and embrace the opportunity to do what we’re
what? tailor-made sub-networks. Your experience of the Internet will fragment
uniquely good at while leaving the rest for the machines.
too as entirely new Internets—from finances to health—emerge to leverage
flexibility, efficiency, and security gained in new network arrangements.
16 Local energy production will power the smart grid
Matching more specialized networks to specific applications
r esou rc es logist ic s so will be a functional challenge for organizations, individuals,
As the smart grid begins to take shape, a big push is emerging for what? and network providers. There will be no single Internet but
many Internets.
more localized energy production. The idea is to deploy cheaper
and more climate-friendly solar, wind, and fuel cell technology at
the neighborhood scale, with smart routing and storage. Watch 19 Machines get a social life
for widespread decentralization of energy grids as digital intelligence
d i st r i b u t e d c om p u tat i on a rtifi ci a l in tell igen ce
and renewable energy technologies drive power production to the
Computation will continue to move away from single-user desktop
edges of our networks.
applications and toward a rich variety of novel forms and architectures.
Complicating the debate about sprawl and land use, this shift
so Ultimately, as machine-to-machine systems mature, these digital
could mean that—as at least one study argues—suburbs are
what? systems will interact with each other far more than with human users
the most sustainable use of land for distributed solar.
and will cooperate in new ways. MIT researcher David Rose frames
this shift as a transition from traditional computation toward a world
17 The data race shifts gears from information to insights of “enchanted objects.”
ne twor ke d matte r data To a large extent, new computation technologies will
so revolve around finding ways for computers to connect
As sensing and computing become available all the time everywhere,
what? and communicate with each other without people
organizations that can create machine intelligence tools and operating
getting in the way.
practices to blend massive amounts of data from many sources will
move to the forefront of innovation. They will have a competitive advantage
through amplified decision support and complex task management as 20 An algorithm arms race risks a Sorcerer’s
well as new insight into market dynamics and hidden forms of value.
Apprentice scenario
The collection of “big data” has gotten a lot of attention, but
art ifi ci al i n t e ll i ge nc e ne w c om p e titi on
so the organizations that figure out how to unlock insights by
what? fluidly blending data from many sources will be best positioned
As prediction algorithms are deployed to detect geopolitical and
to serve their market and stakeholders. financial discontinuities, they will increasingly be designed to anticipate
and outdo one another. Once these bots are empowered to act upon
and adjust our increasingly critical connected systems—such as global
markets, smart cities, and social networks, competing programs could
create chaos. Financial trading algorithms, for example, have already
been implicated as the cause of market “flash crashes.”
Chaos caused by competing algorithms could thwart
so
our ultimate goal of fine-tuning systems to avoid
what?
potential problems.