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Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12

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Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci

Activity based risk assessment and safety cost estimation for residential
building construction projects
G. Emre Gurcanli, Senem Bilir ⇑, Merve Sevim
Technical University of Istanbul, Department of Civil Engineering, Division of Construction Management, Ayazaga Campus, Maslak, 34469 Istanbul, Turkey

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Fatal construction accidents are major problem in Turkish construction industry. Although new compre-
Received 6 February 2015 hensive legislation has been inured recently; level of consciousness in the industry is unsatisfactory and
Received in revised form 19 June 2015 safety is perceived as an extra cost. Small or middle scaled residential projects have a big share in the
Accepted 1 July 2015
industry and majority of the fatal accidents usually occur on such work sites. Focus of this study is small
and middle-scaled residential construction sites. Drawings, technical specifications, bill of quantities of
25 concrete residential buildings with total areas that vary between 230 and 118,200 m2 in Istanbul were
Keywords:
examined. Site visits and information gathering were performed from site engineers. This study aims to
Risk assessment
Safety cost
give an approach for safety cost estimation for the early stages of construction bidding phase using risk
Scheduling assessment activities and construction project scheduling by focusing on construction activities.
Construction industry Additionally, a cost analysis was performed and the results were compared and analyzed with a former
Logarithmic regression project that focused on 30 concrete residential projects in Istanbul. Primavera P6 was utilized for
scheduling, and risk assessment was conducted using the techniques applicable for construction projects
(i.e., L matrix and Fine-Kinney). Finally, activity-based techniques were used for cost estimation. The
results of this study reveal that the percentage of safety cost to the total construction cost is 1.92%.
Also, to comply with the current legislation and minimize risks; 0.85 USD per man-hour should be spent
according to 2013 rates and safety cost per unit area was found as approximately 5.68 USD.
Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction playing a significant role in the economic development of Turkey.


However, the industry also has a reputation of being one of the
In recent years, not only in Turkey, but also all around the most dangerous domestic industries. Compared with other
world, safety in the construction industry has become a matter industries, construction accidents are frequent with a diverse set
of grave concern to government bodies and private enterprises. of small-scale hazard sources.
When safety assessments are required in construction sites, there Current legislation on occupational safety in Turkey provides
is often insufficient data or imprecise information available for regulation and enforcement of employers to implement safety
(Gurcanli and Mungen, 2009). Additionally, different companies measures as well as safety management systems. However, the
tend to have different scales in various safety management level of consciousness in the industry is unsatisfactory and safety
systems because of resource limitations (Tam et al., 2002). Thus, is perceived as an extra cost and unnecessary expenditure. More
the construction industry has a higher fatal accident rate than specifically, in order to stay economically competitive, sustainable
other industries (Waehrer et al., 2007). and to reach maximum profits, many contractors only execute
The Turkish construction industry has had double-digit growth basic safety measures and eliminate many important hazard
and success in recent years. Most of this growth has come since prevention-training programs during construction project
2011 from projects of the Housing Development Administration implementation (Cheng et al., 2010a).
of Turkey (TOKI). After a small increase in 2012, the industry expe- This paper provides the results of a project conducted by the
rienced 11.5% growth in terms of GNP in 2013 and its share in total authors, which was supported by The Scientific and
employment reached 7.4%, the highest number in the last 20 years Technological Research Council of Turkey (Project Number
(TUIK, 2013). As these figures show, the construction industry is 112M033). The aim was to combine construction project schedul-
ing, risk assessment activities and construction cost estimation to
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 212 285 37 36; fax: +90 212 285 65 87. value safety costs and its distribution throughout a project. In this
E-mail address: sbilir@itu.edu.tr (S. Bilir). way, this research provides a better understanding of safety costs

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2015.07.002
0925-7535/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2 G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12

during a building construction project. Therefore, this approach with other firms. The other objectives of this system are providing
helps in efforts to reduce loss of workers’ life and mitigation cost reduction and management; determination of profitability of
of the safety costs arising from severe injuries, fatalities, customers, inventory valuation, and new product and service
administrative procedures, legal obligations and litigation costs design.
and expenses. However, studies about the cost of safety measures as a part
of project costs during a construction project are very rare.
2. Literature Tan (1999) compared the cost of safety measures during a project
and costs of accidents in Turkey. Aminbakhsh et al. (2013) investi-
Cost estimation models are useful in the preliminary design gated the safety risk assessment during planning and budgeting of
stage of a construction project if they are able to estimate construc- construction projects using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
tion costs with minimum project information in the early stages Chalos (1992) introduced a cost of safety model to conceptually
(Kim et al., 2004). Such estimates allow owners and planners to describe the cost-benefit analysis of accident/injury prevention.
evaluate project feasibility and effectively control costs in detailed Tappura et al. (2015) discussed management accounting for
project design work. However, contractors do not have any stan- safety-related decision-making and valuing human life in a
dard for cost estimation in the European Union (EU) or in other cost-benefit analysis. Alonso et al. (2013) studied the impact of
countries. Several sources mention various cost estimating imple- health and safety on the investment of construction companies
mentations (Akarca, 1992; Akintoye, 2000; Arpaci, 1995; Cook, by applying a questionnaire in southern Spain. Sousa et al.
1982; Cox, 1987; Curran, 1989; Ciraci et al., 1996; Feng et al., (2014) presented an Occupational Safety and Health Potential
2015; PMBOK, 2008; Polat, 2004; Seyyar, 2000; Usta, 1994). Risk Model for estimation of the statistical costs of occupational
Some of these cost estimation methods include: Unit Method, safety and health risk. As health and safety costs are not calculated
Superficial Method, Approximate Quantities Method, Artificial during the bidding period, the parties do not want to waste money
Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic, Genetic Algorithms, Regression for safety expenses or reduce their contract profits.
Analysis, etc. Since the accuracy of construction cost estimates The objective of this paper is to offer an approach for safety cost
(as well as contingency for contractors) is a critical factor in the estimation in the early stage of the construction bidding phase
success of the project, many cost estimation models that adopt using construction project scheduling data, and risk assessment
parametric methods have been developed. Approaches to cost esti- techniques applicable for construction projects, such as the L
mation based on statistics (Singh, 1990; Wilson, 2005) and linear matrix and Fine-Kinney methods (Hughes and Ferrett, 2005;
regression analysis (Kouskoulas and Koehn, 1974) were developed Kinney and Wiruth, 1976; Rausand, 2011) and ABC method.
in the 1970s. During the late 1980s a new approach to cost estima- Using an activity-based risk assessment and activity-based cost
tion was introduced based on user experience and increased estimation analysis would be consistent since the safety risks of
research into the potential of artificial intelligence, such as with every activity are analyzed and costs of these risks are investigated
expert systems (Kim et al., 2004). in this study. Furthermore, consideration of safety costs as part
The literature on construction project cost estimation includes of project costs and calculation of safety cost using both
research on the costs of accidents. Costs of accidents have been a activity-based risk assessment methods and ABC analysis will offer
focus point for safety experts and academicians in the field of occu- a new approach for determination of safety expenses in the con-
pational safety. There are numerous studies that analyze the cost of struction industry. The approach provides a very practical way to
lost working days, insurance, delay in project duration, etc. In a estimate the share of safety costs in total project costs for building
study undertaken by the Health and Safety Executive (of projects. Hence, by implementation of the approach suggested,
England), it was shown that indirect costs could be 36 times contractors can readily prepare and implement their safety
greater than the direct costs of an accident. In other words, the management plan while controlling costs and improving project
direct costs of an accident or disease represent the tip of the ice- management, and most importantly save human life and protect
berg when compared to overall costs (Cheng et al., 2010b). their workers on site.
Panopoulos (2003) sought optimum safety cost by estimation of
prevention cost, average accident cost and management failure
3. Methodology
with-no-accident cost and determined whether or not safety pays
for a project. Everett and Frank (1996) reexamined the total cost of
This section provides details on specific topics related with the
accidents and injuries in the construction industry making neces-
proposed approach and methodology. Fig. 1 shows a graphical
sary assumptions, method changes and updating inputs. Feng
representation of the methodology.
et al. (2015) calculated average direct accident costs, indirect acci-
dent costs and total accidents costs of building projects in
Singapore using bivariate correlation analysis and moderated 3.1. Data collection
regression analysis.
According to Cooper and Kaplan (1992), Activity-Based Costing This paper attempts to estimate safety costs and its distribution
(ABC) has emerged as a new approach that associates costs directly throughout a project before construction starts. For this purpose,
related to business activities with manufactured products. ABC firstly drawings, technical specifications, bill of quantities of 25
gives more accurate information especially in complex structures concrete residential buildings in the region of Istanbul province
and allows one to obtain information on cost items that are were collected, construction sites were visited and information
ignored in traditional methods (Rzvi and Elnathan, 1999). gathered from the site engineers about safety practices on site with
Furthermore, this method is flexible for all kinds of the financial support of The Scientific and Technological Research
technology-intensive business systems and can be used success- Council of Turkey (TUBITAK). In total, the 25 concrete residential
fully in developing countries (Alkan, 2005; Liu and Pan, 2007). building projects vary between 230 and 118,200 m2 in area.
ABC provides detailed information about the cost of activities in Since the costs of construction projects vary due to regional
a particular process and helps decision-makers to develop reason- characteristics (different labor wages, different tax policies of the
able decisions (Khataie et al., 2011). According to the municipalities, variable transportation, material cost and
Ríos-Manríquez et al. (2014) ABC implementation gives firms a additional cost due to site facilities), the study only focused on
chance to compare their profitability, productivity and cost control the projects in Istanbul province.
G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12 3

Fig. 1. Graphical representation of the methodology.

3.1.1. Preparation of work breakdown structures convenience for best-cost calculations (Pilcher, 1966; PMBOK,
Since construction work is a project-based production type and 2008).
differs from a process-based production; depending on the struc- There are many work items in construction projects and work
ture type, different risks and different occupational accidents come items have different qualifications from each other, which makes
to the fore. However, although the construction industry has a a reliable comparison between them difficult. Therefore, in order
project-oriented type of production, in similar projects there are to evaluate productivity in the construction industry, using the
similar activities. A work breakdown structure (WBS) divides the concept of man-hours allows translation of all these items into a
project into several parts to make activities more manageable. common metric. It is important to use man-hour values to calcu-
Each of these parts can be considered as products; planning, cost late the realistic costs of a project. One crucial point when using
estimates, observations and controls can be made via these parts man-hour values is that these values are durations that reflect only
(Project Management Body Of Knowledge-PMBOK, 2008). the workers performing the unit work items (Kuruoglu, 2002).
Accordingly, establishing WBS and determining the work items Another important issue is that the man-hour values depend on
precisely are beneficial and necessary efforts for effective activity to site conditions, project restrictions and they can vary with the
based risk assessment. Park and Kim (2012) mentioned that effec- nationality of the workers, etc. Hence, companies generally create
tive activity based risk identification is one of the most crucial their own man-hour values to obtain more accurate results for
aspects for site safety management planning in efficiently accom- estimation of a budget. In this study, after arranging summary
plished projects. information and work breakdown structures of all the projects,
In this study, the work breakdown structures of 25 building preparation of scheduling tables, performing project schedules, a
projects were established and for each construction project all determination of man-hour values for each activity was completed.
work items were listed. Sources were determined and assigned Project schedules were prepared using the planning tables, activity
to listed work items. Fig. 2 shows the work items of column con- durations and total number of workers for each activity. Primavera
crete work for Project 1. At this stage of the study, the authors P6 (http://www.oracle.com) software was utilized to prepare the
and concerned departments of the projects discussed the work project schedules. Start and finish dates of each activity were set,
items. Ultimately, a number of adjustments and assumptions were and relations between activities (finish to start or start to start
made about the work items of the construction projects. etc.) were determined.
This study utilized Kuruoglu and Bayoglu (2001) man-hour val-
ues derived from 69 different construction jobs. In their study
3.1.2. Determination of man-hour values Kuruoglu and Bayoglu (2001) specified these values using the
A properly conducted and evaluated work program will facili- man-hour values of the Turkish Ministry of Environment and
tate successful completion of a project. An insufficient work pro- Urban Planning and averaged man-hour values obtained from sev-
gram may lead to an increase in time taken and costs of the eral companies. Briefly, this study comprises the man-hour values
project. Companies should estimate an effective cost calculation from the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning as
of required activities for successful project management. In order well as man-hours from real project scheduling tables of different
to make such estimates, a proper work program is of great companies.

Construction Project

R.C.C. Roof Electrical and Floor Doors & Lift Landscaping General
Excavation Masonry mechanical works Plastering Painting Grooting work
works works works Windows installation site works

2.1. lean 2.2. foundation 2.3. floor 2.4. beam 2.5. column
conc. conc. conc. conc. conc.

2.5.1. Formwork

2.5.2. Pouring conc.

2.5.3. Re-bar bending

2.5.4. Settlement

Fig. 2. WBS of column concrete work of Project 1.


4 G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12

3.2. Risk assessment


Gen. Site
Works

3.2.1. Analysis of possible hazards


According to the work break down structures and work item

x
x
lists, possible activity hazards are listed. Table 1 shows the funda-
Landscaping

mental work activities performed in a concrete residential building


project and related occupational hazards.
works

The main aim in performing hazard analysis is to determine


safety expenditures to prevent accidents by conducting risk assess-
x

x
ments and decreasing risk scores (to the level of ‘‘acceptable’’) by
inst.
Lift

x the utilization of personnel protective equipment, collective equip-

x
ment and other equipment or techniques as well as training pro-
window Inst

grams. Although many possible hazards are cited, they are the
most frequently encountered hazards according to past studies
Door &

done in Turkey (Gurcanli and Mungen, 2005; Gurcanli, 2006;


x

Gurcanli and Mungen, 2009, 2013; Mungen, 1997). Since this study
provides a point of view and establishes a new approach based on
historical data from past studies in Turkey, however, future studies
Rebar & other
metal works

should also consider other possible and contemporary hazards.

3.2.2. Assessment of risk scores


x

A risk analysis of each work item for 25 residential building


Floor

construction projects was accomplished with the help of activity


tables, a project schedule and work breakdown structures. The risk
x
x

scores of each work item were calculated and risk assessments


Painting

were completed using two different methods: L Matrix and


Fine-Kinney (Hughes and Ferrett, 2005; Kinney and Wiruth,
x

1976; Rausand, 2011).


Plastering

Risk assessments were done by the utilizing accident severity


and accident likelihood as input parameters for each construction
x

work item and sub-item. A conceptual framework and scores from


a study performed by Gurcanli and Mungen (2009) was used for
Grouting

accident likelihood and severity. This paper referenced some differ-


ent definitions and rankings of severity measures and utilized a
x

x
x

x
x

combination of these definitions (Australian and New Zealand


mech. works

Standard 4360, 1999; Management of Health and Safety at Work


Regulations (HSE), 1999; Sii et al., 2001; Tweeddale, 1997; Wang,
Elect. &

1997). In the literature, severity rankings were defined with 4 to


7 scales; while in this paper, a 5-scale ranking was chosen. After
x

a literature review (HSE, 2003; Raafat, 1995; Sii et al., 2001;


Masonry

Sii and Wang, 2002) a 5-scaled ranking was chosen for accident
likelihood. Subsequently, we obtained risk distributions for all
x

the projects. As an example, Table 2 shows the risk distribution of


Roof

Project 8. Similar risk distribution tables were prepared for all the
x

projects. Table 2 shows the ratio of risk categories to total risk scores,
total number of activities in the project, as well as number of
concr. const.
Reinforced

activities and percentages of items that have very high risk scores.
These risk analyses are generally performed in the planning
stages; hence it will be more reasonable to focus on the number
x

x
x

x
x

of very high and high-risk activities. As it can be seen from


Excavation

Table 2, the risk assessment of Project 8 gives 228 very high and
139 high-risk activities in a L Matrix Method. However, there are
450 very high and 39 high risk activities in a Fine-Kinney
x
x
x
x

x
x
x

Method risk assessment of Project 8. In order to stay on the safe


Equipment accidents (concrete pump

side, using the method that gives more very high and high-risk
Equipment accidents (roll over etc.)
(especially neighbor structures)

activities makes more sense. In Project 8, the results show that


Hazards due to machine and tool

Equipment accident (lifts, hoists,


Contact with underground lines
Hazard analysis of main job items.

the Fine-Kinney Method risk assessment was the more conserva-


Struck by flying/falling object

Struck by a moving vehicle


Building/Structure collapse

tive approach.
Manual handling hazards

usage (hummer etc.)


Fall into the excavation

Contact with electricity

Although both methods give similar results in certain aspects,


Possible hazards/jobs

the Fine-Kinney Method gave much higher levels of risk scores


Fall onto ground

for 25 projects than the L Matrix Method. In other words, the


Fall from height

Fine-Kinney Method scores reflect a safer estimate for almost all


cranes)

projects. The Fine-Kinney and L Matrix methods give the same risk
Cave-ins

etc.)

level for ‘‘cave-ins,’’ which are shown in Table 4. However, there is


Table 1

a large difference between these methods. In Fine-Kinney there


was a significant risk score difference between ‘‘explosion’’ and a
G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12 5

Table 2
Summary of risk distribution for project 8.

L Matrix method Fine-Kinney method


Very high High Average Low Very low Total Very high High Average Low Very low Total
Ratio of risk categories to total risk score (%) 23.6 34.1 37.1 5.2 0 100 74.2 13.3 12.4 0.2 0 100
Number of activity and percentages 228 139 531 450 39 531
(%42.9) (%26.2) (%84.8) (%7.3)

Table 3 and was accepted with amount of work with a unit cost and was
Percentage of very high-risk scores and percentage of very high-risk activities for 25 assigned to the each activity when put into the Primavera P6
projects.
software (2013). In other words, unit prices were considered as 1
Project L Matrix method Fine-Kinney method and risk scores of the activities were assigned as if it was an
number amount of work in the resource assignment table in Primavera
Ratio to Ratio to total Ratio to Ratio to total
total risk number of total risk number of P6. In this way, the risk of any activity, the distribution of risks
score (%) activities (%) score (%) activities (%) throughout the project and the time period with highest risk level
1 12.5 14.2 71 29.7 in the project could be seen in the scheduling tables and project
2 12.7 13.9 72.7 27.1 schedules. Utilization of the Fine-Kinney method and L Matrix
3 14.8 19 71.2 36.2
method is very advantageous for safety experts, especially in the
4 18.5 26.7 68 30
5 12.4 14.6 67.5 28.7 pre-construction phase as it allows one to focus on managerial
6 15.6 21 73.5 30 tools and decision-making about materials, equipment, construc-
7 32 72.2 78.8 80.6 tion methods, assembling of work teams, and coordination of sub-
8 23.6 42.9 74.2 84.8 contractors to reduce safety risks throughout the project.
9 6.2 6.3 63.2 14.6
10 7.2 6.9 64.8 18.5
11 19.7 23.7 73.2 37.6 3.2.3. Determination of protection measures, mitigation and
12 12.3 13.2 73.5 33.3 abatement techniques
13 20.3 36.8 53.6 47.4
14 14 20.7 75.3 48.9
Generally the safety experts on site define the risks for each
15 26.9 62.9 72.9 68.6 construction work item and determine the mitigation and abate-
16 18.4 24 79.6 48 ment measure to prevent the possible accident. It is important to
17 42.1 89.8 80.3 92.5 note that many safety measures that need to be performed should
18 16 16.5 76.9 32.2
be thought as a part of the construction job rather than as separate
19 27.2 46.8 76.2 60.3
20 16.4 22.4 69.6 39.5 safety measures and/or expenditure. For example, for excavation
21 19 26.2 81.7 45.5 work, shield, shoring, sloping and other techniques are part of
22 17.2 25.4 81.3 46.3 the job itself rather than separate safety measures. According to
23 24.3 36.6 85.3 55.6 regulations, specifications and standards, it is necessary to follow
24 23.6 35.7 84.8 55.2
25 22.5 33.7 84.2 52.8
the rules as a part of proper engineering principles. Therefore, in
this study all these types of safety measures were not calculated
Ave 19 30.1 74.1 45.7
and not included in the ‘‘cost of safety’’. Table 4 was given as an
example for both risk assessment methods (i.e., L Matrix Method
and Fine-Kinney Method). For the given example for excavation
‘‘cave-in’’ hazards. In comparison, it is impossible to specify these
(and all other job items), PPE’s (in this case helmet and safety har-
hazards using the L Matrix Method. The L Matrix Method also does
nesses) and collective protective equipment (in this case fences,
not allow the user to see differences in hazards. This is an impor-
guardrails, safety signs) are depicted in the last two columns of
tant consideration for eliminating the risks as risks are put in order
Table 4.
according to their risk scores and safety measures are taken from
the top-to-bottom in the risk scores list.
The average rate of the sum of the very high risks to total risks 3.3. Safety cost estimation
was found to be 0.19 in the L Matrix analysis; however, the same
average rate was found to be 74.1% in the Fine-Kinney analysis Cost estimating is one of the most important steps in project
(see Table 3). According to the L Matrix Method, the ratio of sum management especially during the bid and award phase. A cost
of the very high-risk activities to total number of activities was estimate establishes the baseline of project costs at different stages
found to be 30.1%; the same ratio was approximately 45.7% in of the project. For the contractor, a bid estimate is submitted to the
Fine-Kinney. If these two methods are compared, the Fine-Kinney owner either for competitive bidding or negotiation, and consists
Method identifies more activities in the region of very high risk of direct construction costs including field supervision, markup
for the 25 residential concrete construction projects. Since the to cover general overhead and profit. The direct costs of construc-
Fine-Kinney method has some difficulties in daily practice (i.e., dif- tion for bid estimates is usually derived from a combination of sub-
ficulty in accessing accident frequency values), it is generally pre- contractor quotations, quantity takeoff and required construction
ferred for use in the planning stage of construction projects in technology/procedures; but many times safety costs are not taken
order to develop an OHS management system. In contrast, the L into consideration. A cost estimate at a given stage of a project
Matrix method is easier to use for occupational safety experts development represents a prediction on the basis of available data
and also site engineers and technicians during construction pro- performed by a cost engineer or estimator; and gathering more
jects on a day-to-day basis. data provides better estimation.
After completion of the risk assessments, calculated risk scores
were used to obtain the risk distributions throughout the projects. 3.3.1. Cost of construction activities
In order to acquire risk distribution, a risk score for each work item Since the ultimate aim of the paper is to give an approximate
was calculated using both the L Matrix and Fine-Kinney methods, cost of safety to contractors before the bid and award phase or
6 G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12

before the construction phase begins, project costs including labor


and material costs, service and consultancy costs for mechanical,

Caution Signs, Rearrangement


of excavation site with cover
electrical systems as well as architectural and structural services,

Caution Signs, Safety Strips


costs for supervision and finally general expenditures for construc-
tion site facilities were calculated.
Direct and indirect labor is taken into consideration when
calculating labor costs. In order to calculate direct labor cost, it is

Caution Signs
important to determine how many hours each employee works
for a work item. Payroll information and work hours information
Ladder

plates
CPM

is evaluated together to determine direct labor costs of each work



item (Bozkurt, 2010). Therefore, daily labor payroll information


PPE

PPE

was used. In comparison, indirect labor costs were distributed to



the work items by using an ABC method as overhead.
Safety precautions to be taken in

The costs of all construction activities were calculated using the


ABC system. For these calculations, the man-hour values men-
excavation and underground

tioned in the previous section were used. The direct cost of each
work item was determined from market research. Tenders about
the projects were received from subcontractors for each work item
or cost data were used with the permission of the companies. This
study was conducted from the perspective of the main contractors
Measures

and assumes that the main contractors will take all safety
works

measures on site. Additionally, the following assumptions were


used in the calculations:
Average

 The notification published in 24 April 2013 by the Ministry of


High

High

High
level
Very

Very
high

high
Risk

Environment and Urban Planning was used for calculation of


approximate structure cost.
score

252
2400

270

120

540
200
Risk

 In absence of current prices, unit prices of the previous year


were used by increasing 5%.
Exposure

 Construction site overhead was taken as 5% of the total cost.


 For Architectural, Structural, Mechanical Design, Review and
Engineering Fee of the projects, ‘‘Project and Technical
6

6
3

Responsibility Fee Rate 2012’’ (promulgated by the Ministry of


Severity
Fine Kinney method

Environment and Urban Planning) was taken into account.


15

15
40

7
40

100

 Chamber of Electric Engineers Construction Engineering


Services and Minimum Wage Project Tender Documents
Probability

Charges for 2012 data were used when calculating the electric-
ity costs.
3

6
1

6
10

 In calculating Construction Supervision Fee, the value of


Excavation risk assessment for building construction using L Matrix and Fine-Kinney method.

‘‘Service Cost Rate’’ was taken assuming that the construction


Average

Average

Average

period is 1 year. These assumptions were taken into account


High

High
level
Very

Very
Risk

Low

in cost calculations of 25 building projects.


score
Risk

3.3.2. Cost of safety expenses


5

20
25

12

12

12

After calculating the cost of construction activities, safety costs


Severity

for personal protective equipment (PPE), collective protective mea-


sures (CPM), consultancy and training were determined. Firstly,
L Matrix method

4
5

market research was performed to estimate the safety cost for each
item. In this stage, not only were costs for PPEs taken into consid-
Likelihood

eration, but also the costs of collective protective equipment such


as fences, guardrails, stairs, roof stairs and other items identified
5

3
1

from the market survey. After first stage, PPE packages were estab-
Equipment accidents (roll over,

lished for each worker working at different jobs throughout the


struck by a moving vehicle
Building/Structure collapse

project. For example, for workers that work in excavation work,


Contact with underground
Struck by a falling object
Fall into the excavation

the package was titled as PPE-EXC (PPE for excavation worker or


(especially neighbor

PPE-Form - PPE for formwork workers) and so on. Each package


electricity etc. Lines

consists of a different combination of PPEs. In Table 5, the details


of a particular construction job, quantities, man-hours, unit price
structures)

for PPE-Package and total PPE cost for that job are provided.
Cave-ins

Job details were explained according to Ministry of


Risks

etc.)

Environment and Urban Planning Unit Prices and Definitions


Handbook. The daily work time was assumed as 9 h and the num-
Excavation

ber of working days was found by dividing total work hours by the
daily work time. In order to obtain the number of workers, work
Table 4

Job

days were divided by the number of days work will be completed.


In some small-scale construction projects, the number of workers
G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12 7

Table 5
Example of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) cost calculation for excavation work.

Excavation Amount Unit Man Total Days Duration Number Minimum Maximum PPE Total PPE
hour working of work of number of number Package Price
hour worker worker of worker Price (USD) (USD)
Sand and gravel paving 10.08 m3 1.2 12.09 1.34 10 1 3 3 15.28 45.84
Soil Excation by Hand 330.8 m3 0.25 82.71 9.19 1 3
(Hard and Soft Soil)
Soil Excavation by Machine 28.94 m3 0.25 7.24 0.8 1 3
(Hard and Soft Soil)
Free Excavations by machine 53.75 m3 0.25 13.44 1.49 1 3
Blockage with Hearthstone 14.82 m3 6 88.9 9.88 1 3
Manually Soil Compaction 125.25 m3 1 125.25 13.92 2 3

was less than three for some specific jobs. In these cases, the num- guardrails. All these decision-making processes need hazard anal-
ber of workers was determined as three (minimum number of ysis and risk assessment scores performed by safety experts with
workers in PPE tables) according to ergonomics and feasibility of the aid of Table 4. Therefore, it is very important to collaborate
a project. PPE module costs were found by multiplying the number with safety experts before the bid and award phase to estimate
of persons working on the relevant work item by PPE module price safety expenditures for the contractors. The level of risk for each
for the same work item. Finally, the PPE costs of all work items construction activity determines the level of safety expenditure
were summed and the total PPE cost for the project was achieved. to eliminate that hazard.
In Table 6, PPE packages for different occupations are shown. After PPEs and CPMs, consultancy and training costs were calcu-
One point needs special attention because some repeating activities lated. In the study, it was assumed that a safety consultancy and
may possibly be ‘‘double-counted’’. In order to prevent this mistake, training service was provided by an expert once every two weeks
the workmanship of each work item was assigned to activities with throughout the project for a fixed 12 months project duration
a particular coding system. For unit price analysis in the last column and was calculated as 3675 USD data based on market research
of Table 6, the most expensive and high-quality equipment (in (from consultant firms). Safety Consultancy, training and expertise
other words equipment not only appropriate to required standards, cost (STCost) is the minimum price and includes auditing and
but also preferred by the safety professionals) were preferred rather training.
than the average price in the market. Finally, the safety cost of a building project can be expressed as
Hazard analyses and risk assessment scores were used to deter- follows:
mine collective protection measures and calculation of associated
SafetyCost ¼ PPECost þ CPECost þ STCost ð1Þ
costs for related construction activity. When calculating the cost
of safety measures, the overall project was examined to determine Xn
PPECost ¼ ðPPEi  NÞ ðSee Table 6 for PPEi ; n ¼ 14Þ ð2Þ
mitigation and abatement techniques, equipment and tools with i¼1
the aid of architectural and technical drawings, bill of quantities, Xn
specifications and construction schedule. It is not preferable to CPECost ¼ Ci ðSee Table 10; n ¼ 6Þ ð3Þ
divide the cost of collective protective equipment for each con- i¼1

struction job (item or sub-item) for two reasons; firstly, it is very STCost ¼ 12  2  1  STDaily
difficult to divide collective safety measures, and secondly, many ðSTD daily ¼ 153:13 USD from market researchÞ ð4Þ
construction activities or many hazards, which are a result of the
nature of those jobs, can be eliminated or associated risks can be
mitigated together. For example, floor openings have risks of fall 3.3.3. Distribution of safety costs during projects
from height and falling objects, and the installation of guardrails As mentioned in the assessment of risk scores section, risk scores
is not only necessary for jobs on the slabs, but also necessary and calculated with the L Matrix and Fine-Kinney methods were consid-
required when electrical and mechanical installations while work- ered as resources and these resources were assigned to each activ-
ers working on the floors. It is also impossible to divide the instal- ity. Furthermore, project schedules were prepared using Primavera
lation of fencing. For example, one way to clearly delineate the P6 software and then the distributions of risks throughout the pro-
boundaries of a construction site is by erecting a fence around jects were obtained. In other words, the risk of each activity, the dis-
the perimeter of the area under construction. By ensuring that tribution of risks throughout the project and the most risky time
work is carried out within well-defined borders, the public can period in the projects can be seen in the project schedules.
be kept safe from potentially life-threatening accidents. Additionally, with the help of these distributions, one can create
Furthermore, construction site workers will have a secure area in safety measures implementation plans. While preparing the safety
which to conduct their work. The installation of fences can prevent measures implementation plans, ‘‘very high’’ and ‘‘high-risk’’ activ-
or reduce many risks (due to excavation, heavy equipment work ities should be taken into consideration. In this manner, one can
and so on) and should be erected at project initiation. Therefore, have the safety cost of a project and organize the project budget
especially thru the aid of the architectural and technical drawings before the project begins by focusing on risk distributions. The dis-
and the project schedule, safety items such as safety signs, fences, tribution graphs of risk scores that were assigned to the activities
guardrails, cover sheets, safety nets, first aid, fire protection tools were prepared for each project. Figs. 3 and 4 are examples for risk
and so on were determined and associated costs were calculated distributions for Project 4 estimated by the L Matrix and
for 25 building projects. Table 7 provides the Collective Fine-Kinney Methods.
Protection Measures and related techniques.
In some cases, it is necessary to prevent people from entering 4. Results
the working radius of a crane thru the use of fences or in some
cases with safety tape. Floor openings can easily covered with In accordance with the performed risk assessments, safety mea-
wooden cover, timber, etc., but sometimes it is necessary to install sures were determined and the share of the safety cost to the total
8 G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12

Table 6
PPE packages for different occupations.

PPE Helmet Goggle Dust mask Face Protective Reflective Safety Safety-toe High Gloves Cost
respirator Shilld clothes work vests harness protective boots (USD)
footwear
Standards CE EN CE EN CE EN CE EN CE EN CE EN CE EN CE EN CE EN
397 166 149 166 471 361 345 345 388
PPE1 PPE-EXC Exc.       15.28
Worker
PPE2 PPE-FRM Formwork       47.66
Worker
PPE3 PPE-IRW Iron Worker      47.23
PPE4 PPE-CON Concrete Worker       49.86
PPE5 PPE-ROF Roof Worker       47.66
PPE6 PPE-BRK Excavation Worker      47.23
PPE7 PPE-PPT Bricklayer       49.86
PPE8 PPE-ELC Painter, Plaster     23.55
PPE9 PPE-MEK Electrician     23.55
PPE10 PPE-FLR Mechanics, Plumber     24.34
PPE11 PPE-WEL Floor Jobs Worker       48.45
PPE12 PPE-CAR Welder       24.76
PPE13 PPE-UNS Unskilled     23.55
PPE14 PPE-DWI Door-Window ins.     23.55

Table 7
Collective protection techniques, equipment and tools.

Required measure Techniques, equipment or tools Unit/Unit Total Total


required price quantity cost
C1 Protect workers and public from the hazards of site and excavation Fencing around the site
Standard warning signs
Safety tapes
C2 Protect workers from falls into floor openings, hoist areas and slab edges Guardrails
Covering with Timbers
Safety Nets
Safety Tapes
C3 Prevent workers or public to enter the working radius of cranes, hoists etc. Fences
Safety Tapes
C4Prevent workers or public from falling objects Fences
Safety Nets
Guardrails
C5Prevention of tile breaks, fall from edge, fall from skylights Slide guards on the roof
Timbers on skylights
Roof ladders
C6 First Aid and Fire Protection First Aid Tool Boxes
Fire Protection Tools

700 35000
Total Risk Total Risk
600 30000
Total Risk Score
Total Risk Score

High Risk High Risk


500 25000
Very High Risk
400 20000 Very High Risk

300 15000

200 10000
5000
100
0
0

Project Duration
Project Duration
Fig. 4. Risk Score Distribution of Project 4 with Fine-Kinney Method.
Fig. 3. Risk Score Distribution of Project 4 with L Matrix Method.

construction cost was found. The total construction cost includes 4.1. Results of cost vs. total area
material-labor costs, project service costs (reinforced concrete,
architectural design, mechanical design, electrical design), Table 8 provides summarized information of all cost items cal-
building inspection service cost, site overhead and occupational culated in this study. The share of safety expenditures of total pro-
safety costs. Safety cost comprises personal protective equipment ject cost should be especially underlined, because this calculation
costs, collective protective measure costs and consultancy/training will be important in the bidding phase for contractors. Another
costs. important aspect of Table 8 is that it shows the share of safety costs
G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12 9

Table 8
Cost Summary information (USD) and cost rates of 25 projects.

Project Construction Project cost Safety Total cost Project cost per Total Safety Safety cost per Safety cost per C.
number area (m2) (Except Safety cost C. Area (m2) working cost/total cost man-hour (USD) Area (USD/m2)
Cost) hour (%)
1 2618 1,171,758 21,205 1,192,963 865.8 37,792 1.78 0.56 8.11
2 9750 2,038,263 27,896 2,066,159 402.6 71,072 1.35 0.39 2.84
3 2500 381,438 11.49 392,928 298.6 11,264 2.92 1.02 4.58
4 1350 386,333 13,836 400,169 563.2 10,352 3.46 1.34 10.26
5 1260 455,286 18,776 474,062 714.9 46,184 3.96 0.41 14.89
6 11,200 2,891,402 33,899 2,925,301 496.3 95,640 1.16 0.35 3.05
7 2500 937,883 12,549 950,433 722.3 10,800 1.32 1.16 5
8 11,000 18,458,607 143,947 18,602,554 3213.20 118,002 0.77 1.22 13.11
9 3400 833,645 11,179 844,824 472.1 9056 1.32 1.24 3.26
10 3700 1,089,413 21,367 1,110,780 300.2 34,384 1.92 0.62 5.79
11 530 171,688 7728 179,416 643.2 6728 4.31 1.15 14.58
12 7330 1,997,605 31,649 2,029,254 526 51,368 1.56 0.62 4.32
13 2000 717,087 10,494 727,582 691.2 28,728 1.44 0.36 5.26
14 300 111,521 7778 119,299 755.6 9176 6.52 0.85 25.95
15 3150 729,174 14,491 743,665 448.6 19,544 1.95 0.74 4.58
16 230 107,012 6.3 113,312 936.1 15,064 5.56 0.42 27.37
17 12,000 2,699,819 84,166 2,783,985 440.8 23,728 3.02 3.55 5.26
18 500 263,385 6852 270,236 1026.90 5072 2.54 1.35 13.68
19 118,200 28,666,266 155,158 28,821,424 463.3 166,128 0.54 0.93 1.32
20 1200 239,692 8831 248,523 393.5 7664 3.55 1.15 7.37
21 2255 813,805 16,451 830,256 699.6 25,880 1.98 0.64 7.32
22 439 172,102 10,858 182,961 791.9 20,992 5.93 0.52 24.74
23 4345 1,414,536 19,962 1,434,498 627.3 22,760 1.39 0.88 4.58
24 3106 1,150,106 17,592 1,167,698 714.3 18,832 1.51 0.93 5.68
25 4042 1,476,310 19,042 1,495,352 702.9 25,952 1.27 0.73 4.74
Median 1.92 0.85 5.68

per unit of man-hour; because man-hour data are extremely y ¼ 1:16 lnðxÞ þ 11:55 R2 ¼ 0:67 ð5Þ
important and they are the smallest units used for the planning
of managerial activities in modern construction project manage- y represents the percentage of safety cost in total project cost and x
ment. It is also worth mentioning that determination of safety is the total area of the construction project. The formula gives a very
costs per unit area offers great advantages in bidding, budgeting, practical way to estimate the share of safety cost in total project
planning and other construction management activities. The calcu- cost for building projects, but deficiencies must be considered (this
lations indicate that the percentage of safety cost to the total con- is discussed in the Section 5).
struction cost is 1.92%. In terms of man-hour costs, 0.85 USD safety Analysis of Fig. 5 shows that as the construction area gets larger,
expenditure should be spent (with the 2013 rates). Safety cost per safety costs tend to decrease. However R2 is lower than expected
unit construction area was found to be approximately 5.68 USD. (see Table 9) if we compare it with the results of the former study
Safety cost versus construction area for 24 building projects is shown in Fig. 6 and Table 10 in the validation section. As known
shown in Fig. 4 (one project regarded as an ‘‘outlier’’ due to its total that R2 is a statistical measure for data set whether far or close
construction area being 118,200 sqm). The most appropriate trend to the regression curve. R2 can be basically defined as the percent-
can be expressed by a logarithmic curve for this data set. age of explained variation in total variation and in general, the
Regression analysis gives the relationship shown below: higher the R2, the better the model fits the data. Of course R2 does

Share of Safety Cost in Total Project Cost for Recent Research (%)

7,00

6,00 y= -1.16 ln (x) + 11.55


2
R = 0.67
5,00

4,00

3,00

2,00

1,00

0,00

0,00 2000,00 4000,00 6000,00 8000,00 10000,00 12000,00


Total Construction Area
Observed
Logarithmic

Fig. 5. Variation of Safety Cost Based on Construction Area for 24 Projects larger than 2000 sqm.
10 G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12

Table 9 Table 10
Model summary of recent research for logarithmic regression. Model summary of former research with logarithmic regression.

Unstandardized Standardized T Sig. Unstandardized Standardized t Sig.


coefficients coefficients coefficients coefficients
B Std. Beta B Std. Beta
error Error
ln(x) 1.160 .175 .816 6.625 .000 ln(x) 2.497 .130 .964 19.194 .000
Constant 11.554 1.365 8.462 .000 Constant 20.321 .866 23.473 .000
Sum of df Mean square F Sig. Sum of df Mean square F Sig.
squares squares
Regression 40.618 1 40.618 43.891 .000 Regression 26.117 1 26.117 368.405 .000
Residual 20.360 22 .925 Residual 1.985 28 .071
Total 60.978 23 Total 28.102 29

accidents in the construction industry generally occur in smalls


not always point out whether a regression model is adequate; in and middle-scale projects. Therefore, this study provides a refer-
some cases a low R-squared value may be a good percentage for ence for contractors of small- or middle-scale construction projects
the model. However, it can be observed from the plots and and facilitates estimation of both safety and bidding costs.
commented intuitively that R2 here is a measure of how well our If we combine two data sets, logarithmic regression analysis
logarithmic regression model fits the data for safety cost versus gives the relationship below:
construction area.
y ¼ 1:239 lnðxÞ þ 12:053 R2 ¼ 0:72 ð6Þ
4.2. Validation of the results
where y represents the percentage of the safety cost to total project
cost and x is the total area of the construction and p < 0.001 for all
The results are compared with an earlier study (Gurcanli et al.,
data sets. Furthermore, when we focus on projects with a less than
2011) where the ratio of safety cost to the total construction cost
10,000 sqm construction area, R2 tends to reach the value 0.80
was found to be 3.62%; man-hour cost was calculated as 0.28
where more than fifty percent of the standard deviation can be
USD and cost per unit area was obtained as 8.08 USD. Former
explained by the model. Of course the logarithmic relationship just
research observed and focused on relatively small construction
gives a point of view or starting point for further analyses. However
projects and it can be intuitively said that the share of the safety
at this stage, the formula provides a very practical way to estimate
cost decreases when total construction area increases. The most
the share of safety costs in the total project cost for a building pro-
appropriate trend can be expressed by a logarithmic curve for this
ject, especially for projects with a less than ten-thousand sqm total
data set. Fig. 6 obviously points out that as the area of construction
construction area.
gets larger, the safety costs tend to decrease.
In the former study carried out by Gurcanli et al. (2011), the R2
value can be reached as 0.93 as shown in Fig. 6 and the model sum- 5. Discussion
mary in Table 10. A logarithmic regression model fits well for this
data set due to the scope of the projects examined. All the projects As seen in Table 8, the share of the safety expenses in the total
in this data set had a total project area of less than 2000 sqm, but in cost of a construction project (construction plus safety) was 1.9% at
the current research the majority of the construction projects were a median. 0.85 USD per man-hour is required to proceed with the
more than 2000 or even 4000 sqm. Briefly, the logarithmic model project safely and 5.68 USD should be spent for safety expenses per
works well for middle- or small-scale projects according to the unit construction area. It should be noted that as the total area of
results, and especially for projects whose total construction area the project increases, the share of the safety expenses decreases.
is less than 10,000 sqm. Recent studies (Ceylan, 2014; Social At this point, firstly it must be stated that certain constant
Insurance Institution – SII Occupational Accidents Statistics expenses (fixed costs) for safety were the same for all projects
Report, 2012; Yilmaz and Tan, 2015) show that occupational (safety training and consultancy due to legal requirements).

Share of Safety Cost in Total Project Cost for Former Research (%)
6,00
y= -2.50 ln (x) + 20.32
2
R = 0.93
5,00

4,00

3,00

2,00

200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 1000,00 1200,00 1400,00 1600,00


Total Construction Area
Observed
Logarithmic

Fig. 6. Variation of Safety Cost Based on Construction Area for 30 Projects smaller than 2000 sqm.
G.E. Gurcanli et al. / Safety Science 80 (2015) 1–12 11

However, the total number of safety expert service hours may as Urban Renewal Act). According to this law, many residential
change only with the number of workers (according to a new reg- buildings have begun to be demolished and new projects have
ulation). Moreover, some expenses such as fencing around the site started. As mentioned above, recent studies reveal that generally
or excavation area do not depend on the total construction area, workers at small- and middle-scaled building projects are the
because the area of the construction site (for instance the fencing victims of the fatal accidents. Therefore, research as well as
cost for a ten-storey building and three-storey building erected guidance to give information and object oriented training
on a same surface area) may be same. programs for contractors of small- or middle-scale construction
The authors suggest that for the future research, data from the projects is important.
construction sites may be analyzed with different regression meth- It is thought that these results will shed light on resource load-
ods to model the relationship between type of construction, total ing and leveling purposes. It is known that resource loading
area of construction and percentage of safety expenditures. The describes the amounts of individual resources an existing schedule
logarithmic relationship of course just gives us a point of view; requires during specific time periods. Resource loading provides a
however, the formula provides a very practical way to estimate general view of the demands of a project on a construction com-
the share of safety costs in total project costs for building projects. pany’s resources and it is an excellent guide for early, rough project
Additionally, contractors can prepare safety plans and organization planning. Moreover, it is also a first step attempting to reduce
and allocate the required budget for safety measures not only for excessive demands on certain resources, regardless of the specific
cost control or project management, but also in order to protect technique used to reduce demands (Meredith and Mantel, 2011).
human life and ensure the safety of their workers. Due to the char- If a general project management approach is translated into health
acteristics of the construction industry, when scope is enlarged, and safety resource allocation, this study will provide information
many different factors will affect the project cost, and this is sim- for safety professionals as well as project managers to plan limited
ilar for health and safety costs. Therefore, further research may resources throughout the project while acknowledging that the use
increase sample size and focus on multi regression models or dif- of resources on a project is generally nonlinear.
ferent methodologies such as logistic regression, fuzzy logic
approach and expert systems. 6. Conclusion
This project provides some other results important for practi-
tioners and safety experts: This project proposed an approach for prime contractors to esti-
Risk assessments done with the L matrix method clearly points mate safety costs as well as its distribution throughout a construc-
out periods in the schedule where the most risky activities exist. tion project. Toward this purpose, hazard analysis and risk
On the other hand, the Fine-Kinney method points out the most assessment techniques were presented. Safety risks and related
risky one or two activities in a much shorter time interval. costs were assessed and calculated, and a distribution of risk and
Although the risk categories of some activities were the same, related costs were determined to facilitate effective safety plan-
Fine-Kinney method can give very different risk scores. In other ning. Safety management is one of the most prominent elements
words, since the Fine-Kinney utilizes three parameters instead of of construction management. Additionally, activity-based risk esti-
two and larger intervals for risk categories (for instance high-risk mation by focusing on the distribution of very high and high-risk
means, a risk score between 200 and 400 while in the L-Matrix activities throughout a project provides necessary information for
method it means a risk score between 15 and 20), it is possible safety budgeting and planning for contractors as well as safety
to evaluate and differentiate risk scores between different activi- experts. Therefore, for the establishment of an occupational health
ties those have same risk category. Therefore, the Fine-Kinney pro- and safety management system, contract requirements, project
vides a higher time and activity risk resolution, in other words duration, total employment, number of employees, total construc-
gives estimation for the ‘‘date’’ of the most hazardous activities tion area, number and variety of work items should be considered
during a building construction project. This fact is important for in initial planning and with the proposed approach safety planning
more precise risk assessment and strategy for decision makers can easily be implemented. Moreover, the results of the study may
when determining the most urgent measures to be taken and/or help in resource leveling attempts to minimize period-by-period
changes of working method, materials and equipment. variations in resource loading by shifting tasks within their slack
A common finding throughout all the risk assessments of the 25 allowances.
projects was unsurprisingly that traditional construction jobs such In future research, the sample size may be increased, and data
as ‘‘reinforced concrete’’ work items such as formwork, pouring from construction sites may be analyzed with different regression
concrete, re-bar bending, settlement and so on are the most haz- methods to model the relationship between type of construction,
ardous (and risky) jobs in building construction. The most risky total area of construction and percentage of safety expenditures.
work items after ‘‘reinforced concrete’’ are excavation and work Briefly, it is thought that completely different project characteris-
related to electrical installations, use of electrical equipment, etc. tics like duration, number of workers and similar parameters
The risks of these work items can be easily eliminated with should also be considered and multiple regression modeling or
advance implementation of an occupational health and safety other techniques may be used in future studies.
management plan.
The results reveal that the logarithmic regression model fits Acknowledgement
well, especially for projects with a less than 10,000 sqm construc-
tion area, where R2 tends to reach the value 0.80, and roughly This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological
speaking more than fifty percent of the standard deviation can be _
Research Council of Turkey (TÜBITAK) under the project with no.
explained by the model. The formula gives a very practical way 112M033.
to estimate the share of safety cost in total project cost for building
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