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No of Pages: 4 Course Code : 15XD25

Roll No:
(To be filled in by the candidate)

PSG COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, COIMBATORE - 641 004

SEMESTER EXAMINATIONS, MAY 2017

MSc - DATA SCIENCE Semester : 2

15XD25 THEORY OF PROBABILITY

Time : 3 Hours Maximum Marks : 100

INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Answer ALL questions from GROUP–I.
2. Answer any FOUR questions from GROUP–II.
3. Answer any ONE question from GROUP – III.
4. Ignore the box titled as “Answers for Group III” in the Main Answer Book.
5. Statistical tables brought by the candidates shall be permitted.
GROUP - I Marks : 10 x 3 = 30

1. If an event A is contained in another event B, what can you say about 𝑃 𝐴 and 𝑃 𝐵 ?
For any two events E and F, what does this imply about the relationship among 𝑃 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ,
𝑃 𝐸 , and 𝑃 𝐸 ∪ 𝐹 ?
2. There is a 60 percent chance that the event A will occur. If A does not occur, then there
is a 10 percent chance that B will occur. What is the probability that at least one of the
events A or B occurs?
3. Cars arrive independently at an intersection. Assume that, on average 25% of the cars
turn left and the left-turn lane has a capacity for 5 cars. What is the probability that the
capacity is reached in the left-turn lane when 10 cars are delayed by a red signal?
4. In a hospital, babies are born at a Poisson rate of 12 per day. What is the probability that
it takes at least seven hours before the next three babies are born?
5. What are moments of a random variable? What is their significance?
6. For a certain random variable X, the first two moments about the value 2 are known to
be 1 and 16. Determine the the mean and variance of X
7. Suppose 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , … , 𝑋35 are independent random variables each of which is uniformly
distributed over (0, 1). Let 𝑆 = 𝑋1 + 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝑋35 . What is the probability that 𝑆 > 22?
8. Suppose two variables X and Y are connected by the relation 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏𝑦 + 𝑐 = 0 with
𝑎𝑏 < 0. What is the coefficient of correction between X and Y? Justify your answer.
9. If the hazard function is constant, what can say you say about the failure time
distribution?

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10. A four-component system that functions when both components 1 and 4, and at least
one of the other components function has its structure function given by 𝜙 𝑥 =
𝑥1 𝑥4 max 𝑥1 𝑥2 .. What is its reliability?

GROUP - II Marks : 4 x 12.5 = 50

11. a) Suppose each of three persons tosses a coin. If the outcome of one of the tosses
differs from the other outcomes, then the game ends. If not, then the persons start
over and retoss their coins. Assuming fair coins, what is the probability that the game
will end with the first round of tosses? If all three coins are biased and have
probability 1/4 of landing heads, what is the probability that the game will end at the
first round? [5]
b) You ask your neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without
water it will die with probability .8; with water it will die with probability .15. You are 90
percent certain that your neighbor will remember to water the plant.
i) What is the probability that the plant will be alive when you return?
ii) If it is dead, what is the probability your neighbor forgot to water it? [7.5]
12. a) A car has five traffic lights on its route. Independently of other traffic lights, each
traffic light turns red as the car approaches the light (and thus forces the car to stop
at the light) with a probability of 0.4. Let X be the random variable that denotes the
number of lights at which the car stops. i) Obtain the PMF of X. ii) Find the
probability that the car stops at more than two lights; iii) Find the expected value of
X. [5]
b) Prove that for any continuous random variable X with distribution function F and
∞ ∞
density function f, 𝐸 𝑋 = ∫ 1 − 𝐹(𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 − ∫0 𝐹(−𝑡)𝑑𝑡.
0
Hence find the mean of exponential distribution with parameter 𝜆. [7.5]
13. a) Suppose the time, in minutes, between the placement of an order of pizza and its
delivery is a uniform random variable over (25,40). (i) Determine the mean and
variance of the time it takes for the pizza shop to deliver pizza. (ii) Suppose that it
takes 12 minutes for the pizza shop to bake pizza. Find the mean and variance of
the time it takes for the delivery person to deliver pizza after baking. [5]
b) A coffee machine dispenses coffee into cups. A sign on the machine indicates that
each cup contains 50 ml of coffee. The machine actually dispenses a mean amount
of 55 ml per cup and 10% of the cups contain less than the amount stated on the
sign.
Assuming that the amount of coffee dispensed into each cup is normally distributed
find i) the standard deviation of the amount of coffee dispensed per cup in ml;
ii) the percentage of cups that contain more than 61 ml.
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Following complaints, the owners of the machine make adjustments. Only 2.5% of
cups now contain less than 50 ml. The standard deviation of the amount dispensed
is reduced to 3 ml. Assume that the amount of coffee dispensed is still normally
distributed; find the new mean amount of coffee per cup. [7.5]
14. a) Show that the sum of n independent and identically distributed exponential variables
each with parameter 𝜆 has an 𝑛-Erlang distribution with parameters 𝑛 and 𝜆. [5]
b) Let X denotes the lifetime of an electronic system and Y denotes the lifetime of one
of its components. Suppose that the electronic system fails if the component does
(but not necessarily vice versa). Furthermore, suppose that the joint probability
1 −𝑦/7
𝑒 ,0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑦 < ∞
density function of X and Y (in years) is given by 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 = 49 .
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
i) Find the expected value of the remaining lifetime of the component when the
system fails; ii) Find the covariance of X and Y. [7.5]
15. a) Determine the reliability of the system with 8 components connected as shown in
Fig.1. The reliability each component is given. [5]

Figure.1

b) It is known that the reliability function for a critical solid state power unit for use in a
10
communication satellite is 𝑅 𝑡 =
10+𝑡, 𝑡 ≥ 0 is measured in years.
(i) How many units must be placed in parallel in order to achieve a reliability of 0.98
for 5 year operation?
(ii) If there is an additional common mode with constant failure rate of 0.002 as a
result of environmental factors, how many units should be placed in parallel?
[7.5]

GROUP - III Marks : 1 x 20 = 20

16. a) A bank operates both a drive-up facility and a walk-up window. On a randomly
selected day, let 𝑋 denotes the proportion of time that the drive-up facility is in use
(at least one customer is being served or waiting to be served) and 𝑌 denotes the
proportion of time that the walk-up window is in use. The joint pdf of (X,Y) is found
to be
𝑐 𝑥 + 𝑦 2 , 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1, 0 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 1
𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 = .
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

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Find i) the value of c; ii) the marginal density functions of X and Y; iii) whether X and
Y are independent; iv) 𝑃[1/4 < 𝑌 < 3/4]. [12]
b) Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are such that 𝑃[𝐴] = 1/4, 𝑃[𝐵|𝐴] = 1/2, and 𝑃[𝐴|𝐵] = 1/4. Let
X and Y be two random variable defined as follows: 𝑋 = 1 if event A occurs and
𝑋 = 0 if event A does not occur. 𝑌 = 1 if event B occurs and 𝑌 = 0 if event B does
not occur. Find the coefficient of correlation between X and Y and determine
whether or not X and Y are uncorrelated. [8]
17. a) The wear-out (time to failure of a machine part is normally distributed with 90% of the
failures occurring symmetrically between 200 and 270 hours of use.
i) Find the MTTF (mean time to failure) and standard deviation of the failure times;
ii) What is the reliability if the part is to be used for 200 hours and then replaced?
iii) Determine the design life if no more than a 1% probability of failure prior to the
replacement is to be tolerated.
iv) Given that the part has been in use for 200 hours, what is the probability that it
will survive a further 10 hours of operation?
b) A manufacturer finds that, on an average, a smart phone is used 1.4 hours per day.
A one- year warranty is offered on the display panel having a MTTF of 2000 hours. If
the failure time distribution is exponential, what percentage of display panels will fail
during the warranty period?

/END/
FD/JU

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