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Analysis of the impact of Brexit on logistics and supply chain activities in the
UK – “Teething Problems” or permanent impacts?

Thesis · September 2021

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Analysis of the impact of Brexit on logistics and supply
chain activities in the UK – “Teething Problems” or
permanent impacts?

Amr Gamal Fawzy

UNIVERSITY OF
WESTMINSTER

2021
 Dissertation

for the

MSc Logistics and Supply Chain

Management

MSc Student : Amr Fawzy

Dissertation title : Analysis of the impact of Brexit on logistics and

supply chain activities in the UK – “Teething Problems” or permanent
impacts?

Name of supervisor(s) : Dr. Jacques Leonardi

Submitted at University of Westminster on 1 September 2021

University of Westminster
ABSTRACT

This research aim is about investigating and exploring how Brexit as a political supply chain risk has
impacted the activities of logistics and supply chain in the United Kingdom. Concerning the
methodology, a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches was used.

404 news stories and press articles from reliable sources were fully examined and then filtered to gather
the selected secondary data. For the primary data, 1483 invitations were sent to logistics and supply
chain professionals to give their input in a survey questionnaire where 117 of them have agreed to
participate.

The analysis was done mainly by using statistics and content analysis where specific techniques include
verbal-argumentative analysis and the central tendency for analyzing the survey data were used. The
results revealed that Brexit has affected logistics and supply chain activities in the UK in many ways and
caused several businesses’ disruptions.

Besides, it was found that many of these disruptions are not just “teething problems” as was argued but
might cause a permanent impact on how supply chain and logistics’ networks work in the UK post-
Brexit.

Keywords: Brexit impacts, logistics & supply chain, supply chain risks

1
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I can not express enough how I am very honored for being a student at the University of Westminster. I
am very thankful for experiencing those great attributes of the academic environment provided by this
excellent educational institution. I am very grateful for having the resources that were in the possession
of me during my study time in such a great university.

I am thankful for all of the survey respondents who took some time out of their full and hectic academic
or professional daily plans and timetables to fill out the questionnaire. I am very grateful for such
contributions made by all of the participants.

I would love to express my honest deepest appreciation towards my dissertation’s supervisor Dr.
Jacques Leonardi for his detailed in-depth feedbacks, priceless supervision, helpful consultations,
thoughtful comments, and valuable recommendations on that dissertation. The consistent support and
guidance since day one for me in the University from Dr Jacques Leonardi have exceeded my highest
optimistic expectations by miles. Thank You!

2
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

Abbreviation/Acronym Meaning

BCP Border Control Post

BMPA The British Meat Processors Association
BRC The British Retail Consortium
CIPS The Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply
CO Certificate of Origin
CSCMP The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals
DDP Delivered Duty Paid
DFDS Det Forenede Dampskibs-Selskab
EAD The Export or Transit Accompanying Documents
EEA The European Economic Area
EHC Export Health Certificate
EORI Economic Operators Registration and Identification number
EU The European Union
FSB Federation of Small Businesses
GB Great Britain
HMRC Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs
INCOTERMS International Commercial Terms
IT Information Technology
KAP The Kent Access Permit
M&S Marks and Spencer Group
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NFU The National Farmers’ Union
NI Northern Ireland
NPA The National Pig Association
PM Prime Minister
RHA The Road Haulage Association
ROI Republic Of Ireland
RORO Roll-on, Roll-off
SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards
TCA The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement
TRACES Trade Control and Expert System
UCAS The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service
COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019
UK The United Kingdom
UPS The United Parcel Service Company
USA The United States of America
VAT Value-Added Tax
WTO The World Trade Organization

3
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: LORRIES QUEUE ALONG THE A16 MOTORWAY IN NORTHERN FRANCE MID-DECEMBER 2020. ...............32
FIGURE 2: THE LORRIES QUEUE IN KENT IN MID-DECEMBER 2020. ............................................................................33
FIGURE 3: NEW RED TAPE PROCEDURES TO TRADE BETWEEN EU-UK.. ......................................................................34
FIGURE 4: THE UK LAND-BRIDGE ROUTE.. ...................................................................................................................35
FIGURE 5: NEW DIRECT FREIGHT ROUTES FROM ROI TO THE EU.. .............................................................................36
FIGURE 6: STENA LINE FERRIES ROUTES.. ....................................................................................................................37
FIGURE 7: THE IRISH SEA BORDERS.. ...........................................................................................................................39
FIGURE 8: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ EDUCATION QUALIFICATIONS. .....................................................................41
FIGURE 9: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUNDS. ..................................................................42
FIGURE 10: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ WORKING SECTORS. ...................................................................................42
FIGURE 11: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE ROAD HAULAGE DISRUPTIONS POST-
BREXIT. ................................................................................................................................................................43
FIGURE 12: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE POST-BREXIT PAPERWORK IMPACTS ON
SUPPLY CHAIN ACTIVITIES. ..................................................................................................................................43
FIGURE 13: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE DISRUPTIONS OF TRADE WITH THE EU
CUSTOMERS POST-BREXIT. .................................................................................................................................44
FIGURE 14: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF HIRING MORE
CUSTOMS AGENTS. .............................................................................................................................................44
FIGURE 15: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF EU-BASED FACILITIES. ........................................................................................................45
FIGURE 16: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE DISRUPTIONS THAT RESULTED FROM THE
‘RULES OF ORIGIN’ POST-BREXIT. .......................................................................................................................45
FIGURE 17: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE RAISED RATES OF SHIPPING BETWEEN EU-
UK POST-BREXIT. .................................................................................................................................................46
FIGURE 18: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF LOCALIZING THE
UK SUPPLY CHAINS. ............................................................................................................................................46
FIGURE 19: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF THE USAGE OF
THE BONDED WAREHOUSES POST-BREXIT. ........................................................................................................47
FIGURE 20: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF THE USE OF THE
DDP INCOTERMS POST-BREXIT. ..........................................................................................................................47
FIGURE 21: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE NEW DIRECT ROUTES FOR TRADE BETWEEN
EU-ROI POST-BREXIT. ..........................................................................................................................................48
FIGURE 22: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE COST OF THE TRADE NEW DIRECT ROUTES
BETWEEN EU-ROI. ...............................................................................................................................................48
FIGURE 23: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF THE TREND OF
AVOIDING THE UK LAND-BRIDGE........................................................................................................................49
FIGURE 24: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL IMPACTS
ON TRADE. ..........................................................................................................................................................49
FIGURE 25: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE DISRUPTIONS OF TRADE BETWEEN NI-GB
POST-BREXIT. ......................................................................................................................................................50
FIGURE 26: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE EFFECT OF THE EU HEALTH AND SAFETY
STANDARDS CERTIFICATES ON THE NI SUPPLY CHAINS. .....................................................................................50
FIGURE 27: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF ADOPTING THE
SWISS MODEL FOR THE HEALTH AND SAFETY STANDARDS. ..............................................................................51
FIGURE 28: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SCOTTISH SEAFOOD SUPPLY CHAIN
DISRUPTIONS POST-BREXIT. ...............................................................................................................................51

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FIGURE 29: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE EFFECT OF THE GROUPAGE
TRANSPORTATION SERVICE DISRUPTIONS. ........................................................................................................52
FIGURE 30: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE EFFECT OF THE EU HEALTH AND SAFETY
STANDARDS’ REQUIREMENTS ON THE SCOTTISH SUPPLY CHAINS. ...................................................................52
FIGURE 31: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF EXPLORING NEW
MARKETS FOR THE SCOTTISH SEAFOOD PRODUCTS AFTER BREXIT. ..................................................................53
FIGURE 32: THE SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ PERCEPTION REGARDING THE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF NEGOTIATING
FOR A GRACE PERIOD FOR TRADING THE SCOTTISH SEAFOOD PRODUCTS POST-BREXIT. ................................53
FIGURE 33: THE CLAIMED DISRUPTIONS RESULTED FROM THE POST-BREXIT EXCESSIVE ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUES. 56
FIGURE 34: HOW SMART BORDER CONCEPT WORKS. ................................................................................................57
FIGURE 35: THE SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS TO MITIGATE THE POST-BREXIT DISRUPTIONS THAT WERE RESULTED
FROM THE EXCESSIVE ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUES. ...............................................................................................58
FIGURE 36: THE CLAIMED DISRUPTIONS RESULTED FROM THE NEW TARIFF REGIME POST-BREXIT. ........................59
FIGURE 37: THE PROPOSED SOLUTIONS TO RESOLVE THE LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS RESULTED
FROM THE POST-BREXIT TARIFF REGIME. ..........................................................................................................60
FIGURE 38: THE CLAIMED REASONS FOR WHY MANY HAULIERS OPTED TO AVOID THE UK LAND-BRIDGE POST-
BREXIT. ..............................................................................................................................................................62
FIGURE 39: EVALUATION OF THE COST-DIFFERENCE BETWEEN USING THE UK LAND-BRIDGE AND THE NEW DIRECT
ROUTES POST-BREXIT. .......................................................................................................................................62
FIGURE 40: THE SOLUTION OF SELECTING THE NEW DIRECT ROUTES RATHER THAN THE UK LAND-BRIDGE. ...........63
FIGURE 41: THE DIFFERENCE OF JOURNEY TIME BETWEEN THE TRADE ROUTES LINKING MAINLAND EUROPE WITH
THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND. ................................................................................................................................64
FIGURE 42: THE LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS IN NI POST-BREXIT. ...................................................65
FIGURE 43: THE PROPOSED SOLUTION OF THE UK APPLYING A SIMILAR MODEL TO THE SWISS MODEL FOR THE
HEALTH AND SAFETY STANDARDS ISSUE. ...........................................................................................................66
FIGURE 44: THE DISRUPTIONS FACED BY THE SCOTTISH SEAFOOD INDUSTRY POST-BREXIT. ....................................67
FIGURE 45: THE PROPOSED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SCOTTISH SEAFOOD INDUSTRY TO RESOLVE ISSUES FACED POST-
BREXIT. ................................................................................................................................................................68

5
TABLES
TABLE 1: THE DISSERTATION MAIN CHAPTERS AND THEIR CONTENT. .......................................................................12
TABLE 2: THE ADDRESSED ISSUES DURING THE PRELIMINARY PLANNING OF THE SURVEY. ......................................25
TABLE 3: THE SURVEY'S IDENTIFICATION, SELECTION, AND INVITING PROCESSES. ....................................................27
TABLE 4: THE SURVEY INSTRUMENT DESIGN TOPICS. .................................................................................................28
TABLE 5: THE ADMINISTRATION ISSUES OF THE SURVEY. ...........................................................................................29
TABLE 6: CODES USED FOR THE SURVEY .....................................................................................................................29
TABLE 7: WEIGHTED MEAN VALUES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE LEVELS OF AGREEMENT/LIKELIHOOD .........................30

6
TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................................... 1
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................................... 2
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................... 3
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................ 4
TABLES........................................................................................................................................................... 6
TABLE OF CONTENTS..................................................................................................................................... 7
1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 11
1.1 Context of the Research.................................................................................................................... 11
1.2 Aim .................................................................................................................................................... 11
1.3 Objectives.......................................................................................................................................... 11
1.4 Research Questions .......................................................................................................................... 11
1.5 Research Outcomes .......................................................................................................................... 12
1.6 Overview of Study ............................................................................................................................. 12
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................................... 13
2.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 13
2.2. Research Gaps .................................................................................................................................. 13
2.3. Supply Chains and Logistics.............................................................................................................. 13
2.4. Supply Chain Risks ............................................................................................................................ 13
2.5. Supply Chain Political Risks .............................................................................................................. 13
2.6. Brexit in the Context of Logistics and Supply Chain......................................................................... 14
2.6.1. The Term ‘Brexit’....................................................................................................................... 14
2.6.2. The European Union ................................................................................................................. 14
2.6.3. The European Single Market ..................................................................................................... 14
2.6.4. The European Customs Union .................................................................................................. 14
2.6.5. The Frictionless Trade ............................................................................................................... 15
2.6.6. Brexit Withdrawal Agreement .................................................................................................. 15
2.6.7. Brexit Transition Period ............................................................................................................ 15
2.6.8. Deal or No-Deal Uncertainty ..................................................................................................... 15
2.6.9. The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) .............................................................. 16
2.6.10. The Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland ....................................................................... 16

7
 2.7. Brexit as a Risk ................................................................................................................................. 16
2.7.1. Brexit Impacts on Trade ............................................................................................................ 17
2.7.2. Tariffs ........................................................................................................................................ 17
2.7.3. Rules of Origin ........................................................................................................................... 17
2.7.4. Health and safety standards ..................................................................................................... 17
2.7.5. Customs and IT Systems............................................................................................................ 17
2.7.6. Logistics Market ........................................................................................................................ 17
2.7.7. Brexit and Northern Ireland ...................................................................................................... 18
2.7.8. Welsh Ports ............................................................................................................................... 18
2.7.9. Brexit and Republic of Ireland................................................................................................... 18
2.7.10. Brexit and VAT......................................................................................................................... 19
2.7.11. Brexit Paperwork Burden ........................................................................................................ 19
2.7.12. Perishable Logistics ................................................................................................................. 20
2.8. Logistics and Supply Chain Disruptions ............................................................................................ 20
2.8.1. Trade Disruption/Border Delays ............................................................................................... 20
3. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................... 22
3.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 22
3.1.1. Research .................................................................................................................................... 22
3.1.2. Research Methodology ............................................................................................................. 22
3.2. Research Philosophy ........................................................................................................................ 22
3.2.1. Pragmatism Research Philosophy ............................................................................................. 22
3.3. Research Approach .......................................................................................................................... 23
3.4. Research Design ............................................................................................................................... 23
3.4.1 The Mixed-Method Research Design ......................................................................................... 23
3.5. Data Collection Method ................................................................................................................... 24
3.5.1. The Secondary Data Collection Method ................................................................................... 24
3.5.2. The Primary Data Collection Method ....................................................................................... 24
3.5.3. Setting Up the Survey ............................................................................................................... 25
3.5.4. Survey Data Processing ............................................................................................................. 29
3.5.5. Data Weighting ......................................................................................................................... 30
3.6. Data Analysis Technique .................................................................................................................. 30
3.6.1. Qualitative Data Analysis .......................................................................................................... 30
3.6.2. Quantitative Data Analysis ........................................................................................................ 31

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 3.7. Research Limitations ........................................................................................................................ 31
4. RESULTS................................................................................................................................................... 32
4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 32
4.2. UK Media Coverage of Brexit ........................................................................................................... 32
4.2.1. Pre-Brexit Stockpiling ................................................................................................................ 32
4.2.2. Post-Brexit New Administrative Overload ................................................................................ 33
4.2.3. Re-Directing of Freight .............................................................................................................. 35
4.2.4. Post-Brexit Tariff Regime .......................................................................................................... 37
4.2.5. Northern Ireland ....................................................................................................................... 38
4.2.6. The Scottish Fishing Industry .................................................................................................... 40
4.3. The Survey Questionnaire Results ................................................................................................... 41
4.3.1. The Respondents’ Profiles ........................................................................................................ 41
4.3.2. The Post-Brexit Customs Declarations ...................................................................................... 43
4.3.3. The Post-Brexit Tariff Regime Effects ....................................................................................... 45
4.3.4. The UK Land-bridge and the New Routes ................................................................................. 48
4.3.5. Northern Ireland Supply Chains Disruptions............................................................................. 49
4.3.6. The Scottish Seafood Industry Disruptions ............................................................................... 51
5. ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................. 54
5.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 54
5.2. Discussion......................................................................................................................................... 54
5.2.1. Analysis of causalities for the pre-Brexit disruptions ............................................................... 54
5.2.2. Analysis of causalities for the post-Brexit disruptions that were resulted from the excessive
administrative issues........................................................................................................................... 55
5.2.3. Analysis of causalities for the post-Brexit disruptions that were resulted from the new tariff
regime ................................................................................................................................................. 58
5.2.4. Analysis of causalities for the disruptions that were resulted from the re-direction of freight
post-Brexit........................................................................................................................................... 61
5.2.5. Analysis of causalities for the post-Brexit disruptions which resulted from the Northern
Ireland protocol .................................................................................................................................. 64
5.2.6. Analysis of causalities for the disruptions that were experienced by the Scottish fishing and
seafood industry post-Brexit............................................................................................................... 66
6. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 70
6.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 70
6.2. Findings’ Summary ........................................................................................................................... 70

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 6.3. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 72
6.4. Limitations of the survey results ...................................................................................................... 72
6.5. Recommendations ........................................................................................................................... 72
6.6. Future research ................................................................................................................................ 73
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 75
APPENDICES ................................................................................................................................................ 84
Appendix A: List of the covered news stories and the press articles. .................................................... 84
Appendix B: The Survey Questionnaire .................................................................................................. 95
Appendix C: List of Universities and their respective survey invitations number. ............................... 108
Appendix D: Levels of agreements/likelihood among the survey respondents’ sub-groups. .............. 110
Appendix E: Usage of SMART BORDER Concept ................................................................................... 117
GLOSSARY.................................................................................................................................................. 118
INDEX ........................................................................................................................................................ 125

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1. INTRODUCTION
“The impact of unplanned and unforeseen events in supply chains can have severe financial effects
across the network as a whole” (Christopher, 2016). The modern world is extremely volatile and subject
to wild randomness, however, businesses still forecast and plan as if the business environment is stable.
Nowadays, businesses are depending on networks such as transport, information, and communications
technology that are more interrelated than ever. As a result, any failure of one of these networks shall
impose knock-on effects on others (Manners-Bell, 2014). In that introduction chapter, the foundation of
that study has been set in terms of the research aim, the research’s background, and its objectives.
Moreover, the research questions were designed based on the research objectives.

1.1 Context of the Research

The divorcement between UK-EU is called ‘Brexit’. ‘Brexit’ is a term which was created in 2012 by the
British attorney Peter Wilding. It is a combination of the terms ‘Britain’ and ‘Exit’ (Sky News, 2018). This
divorce between the UK and the EU has its impacts on society and business in many ways. Many
countries, supply chains, industries, markets, products, and business owners, and logistics service
sectors were affected by Brexit.

1.2 Aim
This research aim is to investigate and analyse the Brexit impacts on the activities of logistics and supply
chain that are related to the goods’ flows and therefore provide recommendations on how to mitigate
these impacts. The research aims to show how Brexit affected countries, supply chains, industries,
markets, products, and business owners, and how the logistics service sectors were affected by Brexit.

1.3 Objectives
For achieving the aim of this study, numerous objectives have been set. The selected objectives help in
making the study to flow and as a result, the research findings become possible to be approached.
The selected objectives of this dissertation include: -

• Obtain an overview of the risks of logistics and supply chain in general and especially the
political risks and their potential impacts.
• Investigate the claimed Brexit impacts on logistics and supply chains activities in the UK that
were covered by the press during the first quarter of 2021.
• Survey the claimed impacts and the suggested solutions to mitigate such impacts.
• Assess the levels of agreements and likelihood of the survey respondents regarding the
genuineness of the claimed Brexit impacts and the suggested solutions’ success odds.
• Propose practical recommendations to positively contribute to resolving the harmful impacts of
Brexit on the activities of logistics and supply chain in the UK.

1.4 Research Questions

There are two research questions that have been thought about in that research project.

• How does Brexit affect the activities which are related to logistics and supply chain in the UK?
• How to mitigate the impacts of Brexit on the activities of logistics and supply chain in the UK?

11
1.5 Research Outcomes
The outcomes of that study are associated with the research’s objectives and aim. The research resulted
in a better understanding of the Brexit impacts on logistics and supply chain activities. Consequently, the
policymakers, the manufacturers, the retailers, the logistics managers, and the supply chain planners
could overcome and mitigate the negative impacts.

The study outcomes contain a set of recommendations concerning the required regulatory changes
post-Brexit that might be usable for the policymakers. The research outcomes are establishing few
strategic proposals that might guide the business owners and operators into designing more resilient
supply chains. Logistics executives in the UK might make use of the research outcomes like a reference
for experiencing an improved decision-making process regarding the dealing with the logistics activities
in the whole new business environment in the post-Brexit era.

1.6 Overview of Study

Table 1 indicates the overview of the study and the content of each fundamental chapter.

The Chapter The Content

Concerning that chapter, the context of the study along with the objectives
and the aim were discussed in brief. Furthermore, research questions have
Introduction
been also discussed based on the objectives. Outcomes of the dissertation
have been highlighted as well inside this chapter.
That chapter concentrates on the research that has been done by
researchers regarding the dissertation topics. That chapter would assist in
Literature Review
analysing the degree to which the work that has been previously done by
other researchers as well as their own hypotheses.
This chapter focuses on discussing the different characteristics of the
research such as the approach of research and its philosophy. Additionally,
Methodology the original survey design, the sample size and method, and the data
analysis methods.
Results The results chapter presents the primary and secondary data results.
In chapter 5, the obtained findings from the collected data are analysed to
Analysis
extract valuable research information.
In chapter 6, a summary of the findings is included along with an overall
conclusion is drawn based on the analyses conducted in the previous
Conclusion chapter. Furthermore, the study results’ limitations, recommendations for
businesses, and future research suggestions are also discussed for future
studies.
Table 1: The dissertation main chapters and their content.

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2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Introduction
Chapter 2 defines the key concepts and the research’s topics presented from the perspective of mostly
academic authors. What are supply chains? What are the risks of supply chains? What are the political
risks like Brexit from the perspective of supply chains and logistics? This chapter shows these topics
among other main relevant points.

The research gaps and limited evidence-based studies are explored, given the nature of the topic that
was only implemented in 2021. Academic studies have yet to fully cover it.

2.2. Research Gaps

Even though the literature before Brexit showed concerns regarding the possibility of such a political risk
to supply chains, Brexit embodies an entirely new different disruption for the supply chains.

2.3. Supply Chains and Logistics

As per (Cambridge University, 2021a), a ‘Supply Chain’ is defined as “the system of people and
organizations that are involved in getting a product from the place where it is made to customers”.
While (Oxford University Press, 2021a) defines it as “the series of processes involved in the production
and supply of goods, from when they are first made, grown, etc. until they are bought or used”.

Council of supply chain management professionals (CSCMP, 2013a) defines ‘Logistics’ as “The process of
planning, implementing, and controlling procedures for the efficient and effective transportation and
storage of goods including services, and related information from the point of origin to the point of
consumption for the purpose of conforming to customer requirements. This definition includes inbound,
outbound, internal, and external movements”.

2.4. Supply Chain Risks

(Manners-Bell, 2021) defined supply chain risk as “the probability of an event occurring which will
materially affect an organization’s ability to meet its business goals in terms of satisfying its customers’
demands whilst fulfilling its social and environmental obligations”.

As per (Manners-Bell, 2019), the supply chain threat could happen from many sources that could be
internal where it is related to the production and distribution process and/or management of
companies, or from external sources.

(Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that as a result of the complexity and the global nature of the supply chains
nowadays, these supply chains are very vulnerable to external risks such as environmental risks,
economic risks, societal risks, security risks, technological risks, and finally the political risks such as
Brexit.

2.5. Supply Chain Political Risks

(Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that in the last few years it has become obvious that the global trading
networks and supply chains are under threat from political risks. (Manners-Bell, 2019) claimed that free
trade held sway until the world governments tried to intervene and adopted protectionist and
interventionist policies to counter the economic depression in the 1930s and that was the end of the

13
primacy of economic liberalism. Such political interventions have led to many impacts and factors that
eventually created mistrust in the trading systems that are created by the politicians across the world
and made the British people vote for Brexit in 2016.

2.6. Brexit in the Context of Logistics and Supply Chain

Brexit as a pure political decision or event meant a lot of changes on many scales but this study is mainly
concerned with the economic and trade aspects that directly affect logistics and supply chains.

2.6.1. The Term ‘Brexit’

As a phrase, ‘Brexit’ means ‘the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union’ as per
(Oxford University Press, 2021b).

"Unless a clear view is pushed that Britain must lead in Europe at the very least to achieve the
completion of the Single Market then the portmanteau for Greek euro exit might be followed by
another sad word, Brexit". The previously mentioned quote belongs to Peter Wilding, a pro-Europe
political consultant and attorney in European Law, the person who invented the term “Brexit” (Moseley,
2016).

On 23rd June 2016, the EU referendum happened in the UK and the results showed that British voters
have voted to leave the European Union (UK Government, 2016). Later in January 2017, the former UK’s
PM, Theresa May, said that leaving the EU meant that the UK had to leave the EU Single Market as well
(Kuenssberg, 2017).

2.6.2. The European Union

“The European Union (EU) is a unique economic and political union between 27 European countries”
(European Commission, 2021a). The EU was created to fulfil a desire of having a united and single
European political entity after years of wars between European countries like World War II (European
Union, 2021).

2.6.3. The European Single Market

The Brexit term was invented in a quote that has referred to what is called “the Single Market”. As per
(European Commission, 2021b), the Single Market is described as “The EU as one territory without any
internal borders or other regulatory obstacles to the free movement of goods and services. A
functioning single market stimulates competition and trade, improves efficiency, raises quality, and
helps cut prices”.

One of the great achievements of the EU as an economic union and trading bloc was the establishment
of the European Single Market by 12 countries in the early 1990s in order to enable the European
people from what is called the 4 freedoms: the movement of people, goods, services, and money
(European Union, 2021).

2.6.4. The European Customs Union

The European Customs Union is described by (Kenton, 2021) as a union created by the EU Member
States that accomplishes two major purposes: it guarantees the tariff-free trading of cargo within the

14
bloc, whether the cargos are produced within the bloc or were imported, and the second purpose is to
implement standardized rated of the duties of customs on goods that are imported from out of the EU.

The Customs Union polices the global trade agreements and imports from out of the EU, while the EU
Single Market requires the policies’ integration that focus on the free-movement of labour, work
conditions, and health and safety standards inside the EU (Kenton, 2021).

2.6.5. The Frictionless Trade

The ‘Frictionless Trade’ refers to the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers from trade which as a
result provide a free-movement of goods, services, capital and people between the different countries
and the trade between these countries then be like the trade activity within one country. In the UK, this
term is often being used for referring only to the removal of most barriers in trade in goods like the
situation of trade between the Member States within the EU (UK in a Changing Europe, 2020).

2.6.6. Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

On 17th October 2019, the UK and the EU have agreed on the Withdrawal Agreement which determines
the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU. This agreement covers aspects such as the rights of
citizens, border’s arrangements, dispute resolution, and money. This agreement included a transition
period and a framework for the upcoming relationship between UK-EU. That agreement entered into
force on the first of February 2020 (European Commission, 2020).

2.6.7. Brexit Transition Period

Beginning from the first of February 2020, the UK became a non-EU member and has abandoned the EU
yet that was not the end of the Brexit tale. As was agreed in the withdrawal agreement, the UK was in
an eleven-month period, known in the media as the Brexit transition period where the UK has been kept
bound to the EU’s regulations like any Member State (Edgington, 2020).

The transition period has been planned to end on 31 December 2020 and while being in the transition
period, the UK resumed being a member in the EU Single Market and the EU Customs Union. That
meant the UK-EU trade had the right to be operated without any barriers like extra charges, tariffs, or
border checks and the trade between the UK-EU was still under the umbrella of the Single Market and
its frictionless trade system (Edgington, 2020).

2.6.8. Deal or No-Deal Uncertainty

The transition period was necessary so while the negotiators on both sides were trying to agree on a
deal regarding the future trade relationship between UK-EU, the businesses and trade could continue
under the old rules without disruption till the transition period deadline (Scott, 2021).

During that transition period, it was unknown if the UK and the EU would agree on a trade deal or not by
the end of that transition period, the options were characterized as a ‘soft Brexit’ where both parties
will agree on a deal that close to the former arrangements of the frictionless trade, or the other feared
option which was characterized as ‘hard Brexit’ where there could be a whole new system and economic
relationship that has none of the prior trade frictionless arrangements (Scott, 2021).

While the time was passing without making any breakthrough between the negotiating parties,
stakeholders started to worry that the two parties might have no deal at all, and then the trade after 31

15
December 2020 will be governed under the traditional terms of trade from the World Trade
Organization WTO (Scott, 2021).

2.6.9. The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)

The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) is a free-trade agreement between UK-EU that was
signed on 30th December 2020 has been entered into force on the first of May 2021 and guarantees
zero-tariffs and zero-quotas on all trade of EU and UK commodities which comply with the rules of
origin. According to this agreement, the UK is now considered as a non-EU state when it comes to
customs on goods. The procedures and formalities of customs generally apply to the trade between EU-
UK but as stated by the agreed protocol on ROI and NI which is part of the agreed agreement, the EU
customs rules and procedures shall resume to be applied on cargo entering or leaving NI (European
Commission, 2021c).

2.6.10. The Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland

Because of the unique political situation on the Irish island, both negotiation parties, the EU and the UK
have decided to avoid creating any sort of a hard border situation on the Irish island and both parties
went for protecting the cooperation between NI and ROI by agreeing to insert a special protocol in the
withdrawal agreement which is known in the media by “The Northern Ireland Protocol” but formally is
called “The Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland” (European Commission, 2020b).

This protocol ensures the avoidance of having a hard border between NI-ROI in a way that enables the
smooth functioning of the island economy. That protocol also guarantees the integrity of the EU Single
Market and makes NI, despite being politically and geographically part of the UK, acts as a member of
the EU Single Market in terms of required safety and health standards when it comes to the movement
of goods and trading with other countries. The protocol’s practical provisions enter into force by the first
of January 2021 (European Commission, 2021b).

2.7. Brexit as a Risk

(Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that after having discussions with many industry figures in the UK, it was
clear that there is no consensus over the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s supply chains or the
logistics sector. People who favoured leaving the EU saw Brexit as a chance to grow up the trade
volumes with other markets in North America and other areas in the world with new trade deals while
those who voted against Brexit were convinced that Brexit would produce more complexity and
regulation to the trade with the UK’s most important trading partners.

(Manners-Bell, 2019) claimed that it would be ill-judged to only focus on trade relations when it comes
to discussing Brexit impacts on the future of the UK’s situation in international supply chains. Supply
chain managers nowadays make decisions upon many aspects like transport availability, inventory
levels, risk, and even environmental factors before they consider factors like tariffs and non-tariff
barriers that are related to trade relations since international supply chains run efficiently within or
outside free-trade agreements like the EU Single Market area. Despite saying so, (Manners-Bell, 2019)
admitted that visibility and speed are critical for operating global supply chains and any threat to either
could badly affect the UK and that the UK faces a major risk to its supply chains if the frictionless trade
systems that were provided by the Single European Market would be dismantled.

16
2.7.1. Brexit Impacts on Trade
Despite being a member of the EU, the UK’s existing long-term trend when it comes to trade is to have
increasing trade volumes with the rest of the world and Brexit shall only accelerate that trend (Manners-
Bell, 2019).

2.7.2. Tariffs
(CSCMP, 2013b) defined ‘Tariff’ as “A tax assessed by a government on goods entering or leaving a
country. The term is also used in transportation in reference to the fees and rules applied by a carrier for
its services”.

(Feinberg and Keane, 2009) argued that the impact of tariffs on global trade has become less significant
than it was before. (Manners-Bell, 2019) believed that any potential tariffs to be levied on the EU
exports to the UK or vice-versa will not be a significant supply chain risk or barrier. That conclusion was
supported by the fact that following the NAFTA deal in the mid-1990s, the trade volume between the
USA and Canada witnessed a growth of 100% despite that the tariffs fell by only 3%.

2.7.3. Rules of Origin

As stated by the (WTO), the ‘Rules of Origin’ are described as “The criteria needed to determine the
national source of a product. Their importance is derived from the fact that duties and restrictions in
several cases depend upon the source of imports”. (Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that the ‘Rules of
Origin’ would be a complicated process and shall affect any importer and exporter in the UK and that
would affect supply chains.

2.7.4. Health and safety standards

Health and safety standards are related to product standardization. (Manners-Bell, 2019) argued since
the UK is already compliant with all EU required standards then it would not be considered a serious
issue for supply chains to operate according to these standards while trading between UK and EU.

2.7.5. Customs and IT Systems

(Manners-Bell, 2019) admitted that a novel system for categorizing imports and exports, and which
tariffs might be applicable, is needed to be established after Brexit, but the author concluded that IT
systems and customs should not be a problem or cause disruptions for supply chains in the UK nor the
EU given that all accredited traders in the UK have access to software operated by HMRC that can
manage the authorization of specific shipments and process the payment of tariffs. The author argued
that there would not be problems with the IT systems in the EU partners where the EU TRACES system
can track movements of consignments for levying taxes.

2.7.6. Logistics Market

(Manners-Bell, 2019) predicted that Brexit would impact road freight in many ways. Cross channel road
freight volumes shall be reduced since sourcing will move to international markets. The domestic road
haulage industry shall gain advantages from localizing supply chains since the European imports would
become more costly.

(Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that since Brexit will alter the geographies of supply chains, that would
affect the global freight market and infrastructure required to facilitate the goods’ movements.
Overseas shipping service alongside air cargo will benefit from Brexit. Inbound trade volumes from the
EU to be decreased due to the Brexit new barriers. Cross-channel (RORO) transport would lose out.

17
Freight forwarders will benefit from the added complexity in terms of the required paperwork to move
goods.

2.7.7. Brexit and Northern Ireland

(McFarlane et al., 2018) showed concerns regarding the future of the agri-food sector in Northern
Ireland (NI) after Brexit and indicated that the NI agri-food sector will be more adversely affected by the
decision of leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market. (McFarlane et al., 2018) argued that the
food supply chain, trade, and access within NI will suffer from destabilizing consequences due to Brexit.

(McFarlane et al., 2018) suspected that the proposal of creation of a border between the Irish island and
GB would be a realistic solution where having new border checks will require the inspection for
documents, goods, and food stuffs at the border crossings to fulfil the EU requirements about the health
and safety standards, as a result, it will add costs for food business in NI.

(McFarlane et al., 2018) argued that NI’s public health infrastructure shall require huge investment if it is
to be effective in ensuring health and safety standards are met by the traded goods to avoid likely delays
in the food supply chains that might result in food perishing in the event of having a new virtual border
around NI. (McFarlane et al., 2018) concluded that the Single European Market has made the access of
food supply chains easier to/from NI and without the frictionless trade it could restrict NI consumers’
access to the needed food supplies.

2.7.8. Welsh Ports

(Potter and Beresford, 2017) argued that the Welsh seaports especially Holyhead and Cardiff ports act a
complex role within trading patterns by linking the UK and Wales economies with the world while
representing an international land-bridge for freight movements between the Republic of Ireland (ROI),
mainland Britain, and ultimately mainland Europe. Such a situation results in a complex set of
relationships in terms of freight movements between the concerned parties.

(Potter and Beresford, 2017) claimed that Brexit would bring opportunities as well as challenges for the
Welsh ports and that would be influenced by the terms of the Brexit agreement between UK-EU.
Demand for ports as logistic facilities often depends on two factors, first the goods being traded
between two locations, and second, the decision from stakeholders about which transport mode to use
for these traded goods. As a result, (Potter and Beresford, 2017) predicted that the Welsh ports will be
affected by any trade agreement post-Brexit and factors like tariffs will have an impact.

(Potter and Beresford, 2017) argued that Brexit will cause more traffic flow through Welsh ports will
require border and customs checks due to the fact that the UK will no longer be a member in the
European Single Market. Such a situation shall bring delays into the overall transportation process and
that can affect the port choice decision by supply chain and logistics managers.

2.7.9. Brexit and Republic of Ireland

(Mahfouz et al., 2020) argued that Irish agri-food supply chains are extremely vulnerable to the Brexit
impacts since about thirty-eight percent of Irish unitized exports to mainland Europe transit through the
UK land-bridge. Brexit represents a threat for the competitive advantage of the Irish agri-food products
in the UK markets since (Mahfouz et al., 2020) found that the delivery time for most of goods will rise
and that will result in diminishing the products’ shelf-life which then will affect the quality and the value
of the Irish products.

18
(Mahfouz et al., 2020) predicted, in a high check delay scenario, that the establishment of new border
checks due to Brexit at the Irish seaports will cause further delays in the inbound transportation time for
trucks up to 4 extra days than usual in comparison to the situation pre-Brexit. (Mahfouz et al., 2020)
argued that in the absence of agreeing on a common food safety regulation between the UK and the EU,
it is predicted that there would be a significant increase in the levels of (SPS) measures and checks at
border checkpoints.

(Mahfouz et al., 2020) concluded that the new checks will increase the delivery time of up to more than
250% for agri-food goods being transferred from ROI to mainland Britain in comparison with the
situation pre-Brexit where there was a frictionless trade system under the umbrella of the European
Single Market.

2.7.10. Brexit and VAT

As per (European Commission, 2021d), VAT in the EU is a consumption tax which is being evaluated on
the value added to services and goods. VAT applies to almost all services and goods which are purchased
and sold for consumption in the EU. Services which are sold and goods which are sold to be exported to
clients outside the EU are usually not subject to VAT. In contrast, imports are subject to VAT to maintain
the system of being fair for the European producers for competing in the EU market with producers
based outside the EU.

(Freedman, 2017) claimed that the biggest impact of Brexit for the UK-based firms in regards to VAT is to
be in relation to administration where many administrative schemes and simplifications would
disappear post-Brexit when the UK firms will have to register in the taxation system of an EU Member
State to be able to pay the EU VAT. Due to Brexit, non-UK traders that have registered in the UK for this
purpose pre-Brexit will need re-registration processes in another EU Member State.

(Seabrooke and Wigan, 2017) argued that imposing VAT on the products entering the UK from the EU
will cause an increase of costs to businesses. (Arends et al., 2020) indicated that Brexit will impact the
UK-based supply chains through the new taxation system registrations and formalities required from
businesses trading with/in the UK or where a UK business operating in the EU. (Arends et al., 2020)
concluded that such a situation will represent an increased burden on businesses and will cause delays.

2.7.11. Brexit Paperwork Burden

(Leeson, 2021) claimed that despite avoiding the ‘no deal Brexit’ scenario, stakeholders of supply chains
stakeholders are facing new forms of bureaucracy, red tape, and paperwork in a situation which reveals
the significant intensification in administrative burden which businesses have to experience to
accommodate the new rules that were emerged from Brexit where it is estimated that the additional
costs for businesses in the UK to fill out export and import declarations range between £7.5 and £15
billion per year.

(Leeson, 2021) argued that new customs and export paperwork have caused significant delays during
December 2020 just before the Brexit trade deal was agreed on and that companies already expressed
that customs and paperwork delays, and the increased cost of regulations were considered the highest
risk to their supply chains.

(Leeson, 2021) indicated that the paperwork issue might not be just an early teething problem that will
end once everybody became familiar with the new systems. The HMRC estimates that up to two

19
hundred and fifteen million customs declarations every year put one hundred eighty thousand traders
now in a situation that forces them to create declarations for the first time and that is considered a scary
scale of change. Customs declaration is such a complex document to be created, and the new agreed
TCA imposes a huge increase in the required information and details of goods that need to be declared
to be authorized for exporting. These customs declarations do not exist in isolation, but these
declarations are required to be provided in addition to other documents like license documentation,
commercial bills, and freight documents. Whenever any of these supporting documents are inaccurate
or missing then that will result in more delays and extra costs. (Leeson, 2021) claimed that traders face a
major challenge to cope with the Rules of Origin data and information required to complete the
paperwork for each shipment where the regulations are very complicated and very technical and
involving a high level of administration.

(Leeson, 2021) demonstrated that the timeliness, completeness, and accuracy of the submission of the
customs declarations are the drivers of the efficiency and speed of the whole customs process at the
border. (Leeson, 2021) concluded that post-Brexit paperwork is an extra trade burden and challenge
that will be tough to overcome.

2.7.12. Perishable Logistics

(Forse et al., 2019) reviewed the concerns about Brexit's impacts on the Scottish fishing and seafood
industry. The industry stakeholders showed concerns regarding the potential loss of free trade
mechanisms and how that would impact the cross-border trade since fishing and seafood products are
perishable. Border inspections will boost the lead times, reduce the products’ quality, and as a result,
both the demand and the value of the Scottish fishing and seafood will be affected negatively.

2.8. Logistics and Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chains and logistics face many issues and risks that cause disruptions. These disruptions could
result from many different reasons not just the political risks like Brexit but as this study will show,
Brexit has started a series of consequences that resulted in specific disruptions to be existing eventually.
In literature, the concepts of logistics disruptions and logistics risks are often used as a synonym, but
here, the relevant risks encompass a wider range of economic, political, and planning aspects, while
disruption could be seen as more practical. Really disruptive events would be more acting as an
immediate tactical day-to-day problem for the logistics manager, while risks could be more strategic and
long term, and could be dealt with by a wider range of professionals in different private and public
organisations.

2.8.1. Trade Disruption/Border Delays

(Manners-Bell, 2019) showed that the unpredictability of border delays is one of the major problems
faced by manufacturers and retailers. Trade networks are negatively affected by the lack of
standardization of documentation and lack of harmonization in the trade regulations. Consignments are
to face delays, and the logistics managers are prone to more errors when the bureaucracy reaches high
levels. (Manners-Bell, 2019) concluded that integration into global supply chains mainly depends on
both, visibility and reliability.

2.8.2. Ports Congestion

(Jansson & Shneerson, 1982) defined the congestion at ports as “Congestion costs exist if the other
short-run costs of port operations, per unit of throughput, are an increasing function of the actual

20
capacity utilization. When actual demand exceeds capacity, extreme congestion costs arise, which we
call queuing costs. When a port is said to be congested, it is commonly meant that ships are queuing,
waiting to obtain a berth”.

(Meersman et al., 2012) argued that one of the main issues that prevent a match between logistics chain
and ports is the ports’ congestion where the congestion will affect the generalized cost, the whole
logistics process, and the ports’ throughput performance. From the perspective of shipping companies,
ports’ congestion implies time loss which results in higher costs. For the port operators themselves,
congestion causes huge issues where inbound vessels shall face delays for berthing at the port and as a
result a further delay to the scheduled loading and unloading cargo operations for these affected
vessels. Consequently, capacity management shall be affected and result in more costs. The domino
effect shall reach other actors like the fields of storage and the hinterland transportation. Finally, the
delays will affect the decision of shipping companies when they decide ports of call for their vessels and
they will try to avoid congested ports where the limited available capacity implies not only the berth
allocations but also the efficiency of port operations and hinterland connections.

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3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Introduction
In that chapter, various techniques and methods will be discussed in conjunction with the selection
process of the most applicable technique for each step and provided with the reasoning.

Research’s philosophy, research’s approach, research’s design, research’s limitations, data collection
techniques, sample size and data analysis technique are the major research methodology parts to be
considered inside that chapter.

3.1.1. Research
Research is defined by Cambridge Dictionary as “a detailed study of a subject, especially to discover new
information or reach a new understanding” (Cambridge University, 2021b).

3.1.2. Research Methodology

(Kothari, 2004) described research’s methodology as the method of how to systematically answer the
research’s questions and solve the research problems.

(Kothari, 2004) argued that within the research methodology, the different phases which are followed
by researchers in studying their researches’ problems and questions with the logic behind them are
being studied. The researcher needs to know the way of developing different tests or indices, the
method to calculate the different statistical and math figures, the way for applying different research
techniques, and to determine which of these techniques are suitable and relevant and which are not.

3.2. Research Philosophy

(Saunders et al., 2016) described the phrase ‘Research Philosophy’ as it describes a structure of beliefs
and assumptions regarding the development of knowledge. The researchers make several types of
assumptions such as epistemological, ontological, and axiological assumptions at every stage of their
projects. These assumptions unavoidably form and shape the way the researchers understand their
research questions and the techniques that might be used and how to analyse the findings. A well-
organized and coherent set of assumptions would represent a reliable research’s philosophy that shall
support the researcher’s choice of methodology, the data collecting methods, and results’ analysis
techniques.

(Saunders et al., 2016) argued that there are 5 main research philosophies in the business and
management research field: pragmatism, positivism, interpretivism, postmodernism, and critical
realism. In this research, the pragmatism research philosophy was the chosen one.

3.2.1. Pragmatism Research Philosophy

As per Oxford dictionary, ‘Pragmatism’ is defined as “thinking about solving problems practically and
sensibly rather than by having fixed ideas and theories” (Oxford University Press, 2021c).

Pragmatism thinks about hypotheses, theories, ideas, concepts, and research findings concerning their
playing roles as instruments of action and concerning their practical impacts in particular contexts rather
than considering these findings and theories in an abstract form (Saunders et al., 2016).

22
This research discusses an entirely new topic, Brexit as an event is considered as an unprecedented
factor that has its impacts on logistics and supply chain activities and an ongoing, unclear, and yet to be
a fully discovered issue to be dealt with to neutralize its impacts. As a result, this research needed
practical outcomes rather than abstract distinctions as the research’s problem and questions are the
major focus of this study.

3.3. Research Approach

(Chetty, 2016) described the research’s approach as a plan and procedure which include the stages of
broad assumptions to detailed techniques of data collection, data analysis, and data interpretation.

As a result, the research approach depends on the nature of the addressed research’s problem. (Chetty,
2016) argued that the research’s approach is mainly categorized into the approach of collecting the data
and the approach of the data analysis. The latter has two types mainly, the inductive approach and the
deductive one. Qualitative data involves an inductive approach to analysis. In contrast, quantitative data
requires the deductive approach. In the event of having a combined type of data, both of the inductive
and the deductive analysis approaches are to be utilized.

(Saunders et al., 2016) argued that for some projects the literature will be used to assist the researcher
to identify ideas and theories that will be tested using data. In the deductive approach, the researcher
develops first a conceptual framework that is to be tested subsequently. Alternatively, (Saunders et al.,
2016) described the inductive approach as the approach that will involve exploration the data before
developing theories from it and then relate to the literature.

A combination of inductive and deductive reasoning was applied in this research.

(Saunders et al., 2016) argued that for studies that deal with a new or recent topic like Brexit where the
existing literature is rudimentary, it would be recommended then to use inductive reasoning. (Snieder
and Larner, 2009) claimed that “Deductive approach follows the path of logic most closely. The
reasoning starts with a theory and leads to a new hypothesis. That hypothesis is then put to the test by
confronting the hypothesis with observations that either leads to a confirmation or a rejection of that
hypothesis”.

The deductive approach shall allow the researchers from getting their conclusions from the collected
data (Zukauskas et al., 2018).

3.4. Research Design

(Durrheim, 2006) described ‘Research Design’ as “a strategic framework for action that serves as a
bridge between research questions and the execution or implementation of the research”.

(Creswell, 2003) argued that there are mainly three types under which the research design can be
classified: quantitative research, qualitative research, and the mixed method research. The mixed-
method research design was chosen for that research by utilizing both the qualitative and the
quantitative research approaches.

3.4.1 The Mixed-Method Research Design

The mixed methods research was identified by (Creswell, 2003) as an approach to review that combines
or associated both quantitative and qualitative forms. This approach includes the use of qualitative

23
approach, the use of quantitative approach, philosophical assumptions, and the mix of both mentioned
approaches in research.

On the basis of mixed research methods, a content analysis for the collected data was conducted.
Accordingly, the quantitative method was used for answering the research questions through the
numerical data which has been processed to produce meaningful statistical information.

Plus the content analysis of the qualitative data that was gathered from the press stories and press
articles, the empirical quantitative primary data was collected using questionnaires.

3.5. Data Collection Method

(Quinlan et al., 2019) described the data collection method as the whole process of measuring and
gathering knowledge and information based on a variable that is selected for the research developed in
the most organized way. The data collection methods cab be either the primary data collection method
or the secondary data collection method.

(Kothari, 2004) defined the primary data as the data “which are collected afresh and for the first time,
and thus happen to be original in character”. Moreover, the secondary data is defined as “data which
have already been collected by someone else and which have already been passed through the
statistical process”.

Secondary sources and primary sources were used for collecting the data for that study.

3.5.1. The Secondary Data Collection Method

(Saunders et al., 2016) argued that it is much less costly to select using secondary data rather than the
researcher doing the collection process by himself. As a result, the researcher would be able to analyze a
larger amount of data. There would be more available time to think about substantive issues and
theoretical aims since the time and effort shall be saved for analyzing the collected data. In this
research, it was needed to cover as many press stories as possible from reliable newspapers and news
organisations about Brexit related issues to the supply chain and logistics sector and that is why the
secondary data method was favoured for this part of the research project.

The secondary data collection method was used for the qualitative data sources, it includes reports and
news stories. The most trustworthy and reliable news sources like BBC News, Reuters, The Guardian,
The Economist, and The Independent have been accessed for collecting most of the data sources.

Google Scholar have been accessed for getting the needed academic papers.

Appendix A presents the covered 404 news stories and press articles regarding the subject topic with
their respective sources and the publication dates.

3.5.2. The Primary Data Collection Method

(Weigold et al., 2013) argued that the primary data collection method is considered as the most
dependable source of data since it avoids the biasness factors in the research and that the researcher
gathering the data on his own to achieve the research’s objectives and aims.

The primary data collection method was selected for the quantitative data sources, online survey was
conducted by using questionnaires from the period of 1st to 21st July 2021 using the online survey tool

24
‘SurveyKing’. The questionnaire respondents were approached using their LinkedIn profiles and their e-
mail addresses.

3.5.3. Setting Up the Survey

(Richardson et al., 1995) demonstrated that conducting a survey must follow a series of interconnected
and logical steps, starting with the preliminary planning step and ending with the presentation of
results. This survey follows these principles and methods systematically.

3.5.3.1. Survey Preliminary Planning

(Richardson et al., 1995) argued that during the preliminary planning step, several basic issues need to
be addressed before proceeding to the design of the survey.

Table 2 shows the stages of chosen problem, system boundaries, survey objectives and survey content
established during this preparation phase. Another stage is to determine the available resources since it
shall dictate the design of the survey. The needed resources for doing a survey are categorized into
three items; money, time, and manpower (Richardson et al., 1995).

Problem The problem was defined as the impacts of Brexit on the activities of
Definition logistics and supply chain in the UK.
System • The spatial dimension defines the system boundaries
Boundaries related to the geographical area to be considered in the
survey and in this case, it was the UK area.
• The social dimension is related to the social group to be
Overall Study included in the system boundaries and in this case, it was
Objectives the logistics and supply chain professionals.
• The temporal dimension relates to the time frame and in
this case, the Brexit impacts are considered with respect to
their long-term implications.
Study To analyse and investigate the impacts of Brexit on the activities of
Objectives logistics and supply chains in the UK.

In this project, the survey questionnaire objectives were, firstly to provide a piece of
empirical evidence to support the collected secondary data regarding the impacts of
Survey
Brexit on the activities of logistics and supply chain in the UK, and secondly, to
Objectives
explore the likelihood of the efficiency of the suggested solutions to mitigate the
negative impacts.
Determination Money Minimum as possible.
of Survey Time Three to four weeks during July 2021.
Resources Manpower One researcher.
• Impacts’ statements about negative consequences of Brexit on the activities
Survey of logistics and supply chain in the UK.
Content • Likelihood solution-oriented questions regarding the suggested ways to
mitigate the mentioned negative impacts.
Table 2: The addressed issues during the preliminary planning of the survey.

3.5.3.2. Selection of Survey Method

The choice of survey method is a result of doing a sort of compromise between the available resources
and the survey objectives. A trade-off must be done between the quality of data and the data quantity

25
while keeping in mind the survey resources and as a result, the survey method, the degree of quality
control, the survey length, and the sample size shall be decided (Richardson et al., 1995).

Regarding the time frame for the survey, a cross-sectional survey was selected. The cross-sectional
survey is the study of a certain phenomenon at a particular time rather than the diary approach where it
is called longitudinal studies or surveys (Saunders et al., 2016).

Regarding the data collection technique, the online questionnaire technique was chosen in this
research.

3.5.3.3. Sample Size and Technique

The size of the sample is a vital aspect of the study methodology that introduces the entire population
data on the basis of the research’s nature (Wiek and Lang, 2016).

Logistics and supply chain industry managers and experts (the total survey population) are estimated to
be in the 10 thousands, if not hundred thousands, in the UK economy. It was decided to target a specific
number of that sector’s professionals and academia as a survey sample.

The sample includes 117 logistics and supply chain professionals and academic professors who were
chosen randomly from the LinkedIn’s connections of the researcher’s network and from the official
websites of their respective UK universities, therefore, allowing a selection of rather representative
businesses and academia in the UK.

(Saunders et al., 2016) demonstrated that ‘Sampling Techniques’ offer several methods which allow the
researchers from reducing the quantity of data that is required to be collected by considering just the
data from a subgroup instead of each possible cases or elements of the entire population. For research
questions where it might be impractical for collecting data from the whole population, then the research
must select a sample. The existing sampling techniques are the probability or representative sampling
technique and the non-probability sampling technique.

(Saunders et al., 2016) described the non-probability sampling technique as the technique that offers
several alternative methods for samples selection on the basis of the researcher subjective judgement.

The non-probability sampling technique was chosen in that research. The selection of the non-
probability sampling technique was done due to the research aim and strategy.

(Saunders et al., 2016) demonstrated that non-probability sampling techniques are: quota, purposive,
snowball, self-selection, and convenience technique.

The ‘Purposive’ sampling also known as the judgemental sampling allows the researchers from using
their judgement for selecting elements which would allow them from answering the research’s
questions and it is used when the researchers need to select cases which are informative in particular
(Saunders et al., 2016).

The purposive sampling technique was selected to be used in this research for sample selection to be
sure about the respondents being informative enough to this topic.

To identify the targeted respondents, two sources were used: LinkedIn and the official websites of
selected British Universities. Table 3 shows the process of the selection and the inviting of the
respondents.

26
 • The researcher selected the LinkedIn profiles that were within his network (1st
connection), based in the UK, and their industry choice was logistics and supply
chain.
• A number of 944 persons have been sent 944 personalised first contact e-mails
LinkedIn that include invitations to the online survey questionnaire and a small intro
about its topic and the research purpose.
• A LinkedIn post was published on the researcher LinkedIn profile inviting
logistics and supply chain colleague professionals to participate in the survey
questionnaire.
• As per the (UCAS) website, there are a number of 63 universities that provide
logistics and supply chain postgraduate courses. 59 of these universities were
selected to be the source of information of the academia respondents’ input
for this survey.
The • By browsing the official websites of these universities, as Appendix C shows, it
universities’ was possible to identify each professor and lecturer who are either teaching
official logistics and supply chain courses or members in logistics and supply chain
websites research centres in these universities.
• A number of 539 individual, personalised, first contact e-mails were sent to the
doctors and professors e-mail addresses that were available online. That 539 e-
mails each includes an invitation to the online survey questionnaire and a small
intro about its topic and the research purpose.
A total number of 1483 individual e-mails were sent to the identified persons’ e-mail
addresses.
Table 3: The survey's identification, selection, and Inviting processes.

3.5.3.4. Survey Instrument Design

The survey designing is a very critical step that is considered to be an art (Richardson et al., 1995). Table
4 shows issues that have to be addressed in designing surveys.

Length of theThe length of the questionnaire has been decided after making a
Questionnairetrade-off between the dream full questions list, survey resources,
and the effect of length. By the end, it was suited to end in an
average time of 10 minutes and to cover the essential parts in
addition to the respondent’s profile.
Relevance of All the questions, except the respondent’s profile ones, were
the Questions selected with direct and very clear relevance to the survey topic
Questionnaire
and each set of questions were supported with a very brief text
Content
that indicates the relevance.
The selected questions covered all the essential areas in the study.
Reasonableness The questionnaire content questions were all selected to be
of the reasonable to expect respondents to be able to answer. An option
Questions of ‘No Answer’ (n/a) was inserted into each question to make sure
that the respondents only answer questions that they are
confident enough to answer.
The opinion questions type was selected for this survey questionnaire. Opinion
Question questions purely seek to decide whether a respondent agrees or disagrees with a
Types given statement (Richardson et al., 1995).

27
 The ‘Likert Scale’ was selected to be the measurement scale in the survey. This scale
consists of several statements of different polarities and degrees of extremity where
Measurement
the respondent levels each statement along a 5-point dimension (Richardson et al.,
Scales
1995).

The close-ended question format was selected in conducting this survey. The close-
ended questions format is suitable for the opinion questions where it can be asked
by using psychometric scaling techniques such as the ‘Likert Scale’ (Richardson et al.,
1995).
The psychometric techniques were introduced because of the need to quantify the
qualitative attributes of opinions, attitudes, and perceptions to meet the
requirements of being included in the social sciences researches. Psychometrics
techniques use several scales in social science researches and one of these scales is
Question
the Likert scale. Likert scale was devised to measure attitude and opinion in an
Format
accepted scientific and validated way in the 1930s (Joshi et al., 2015).

(Joshi et al., 2015) argued that the Likert scale is a set of statements where the
respondents are asked to demonstrate their levels of agreement from strongly
disagree to strongly agree towards these statements on a metric scale. When the
researchers want to combine the items to generate a composite score then the
assigned scale should be an interval scale. The measures for dispersion and the
central tendency for an interval scale are standard deviation and mean.
Table 4: The survey instrument design topics.

Appendix B presents the final version of the survey design after taking into consideration the previously
discussed points.

3.5.3.5. Administration of the Survey

(Richardson et al., 1995) indicated that there are many issues to address in the process of survey
administration as Table 5 shows.

To increase the response rate, some pre-publicity for the survey was done.
1- A first contact e-mail draft was prepared to introduce the questionnaire topic,
Initial Contact content, objective, and access options.
2- A post on the researcher’s LinkedIn account has been made to provide the
previously mentioned information about the survey questionnaire.
Immediately after making the questionnaire online, the follow-up procedures
Follow-up started either by responding to any questions from the respondents or the process
Procedures of starting to copy the results from the online survey platform ‘Surveyking’ to the
Microsoft Excel sheets for restoring the collected data.
• The online survey platform ensures that all surveys are anonymous so no
Confidentiality
one would know which answer belongs to which respondent.
and data
• The anonymity of the survey and data was guaranteed in the first contact e-
protection
mails and the survey introduction form.
In an attempt to increase the response rate, the first contact e-mails and the online
Use of
survey form introduction part mentioned that the respondents would be rewarded
Incentives
with a study report and an analysis of the research topic.

28
 To increase response rate and the understanding of the questions, both the first
contact e-mails and the survey online format introduction part have mentioned the
Covering
e-mail of the researcher while asking the respondents to communicate in case of the
Letter
need of any answers for any questions regarding the survey content or any ethical
issues.
Table 5: The administration issues of the survey.

3.5.4. Survey Data Processing

As per (Richardson et al., 1995), the process of transforming the completed questionnaires into useable
data results consists of many tasks.

3.5.4.1. Coding
(Richardson et al., 1995) defined the coding process as the translation of data into labelled categories
suitable for computer processing. There are three other types of codes that are possible to be used:
ordinal, ratio, and interval codes.

3.5.4.2. The Interval Codes

(Richardson et al., 1995) argued that the interval codes rank the data items as well as impute measures
of separation to the numerical differences in the code’s values.

Since it was determined to use the ‘Likert Scale’ in that research’s questionnaire, then the interval codes
were used for coding the questionnaire data.

3.5.4.3. Data Editing, Entry, Coding, and Processing

The used online survey tool ‘SurveyKing’ automatically filter the questionnaire’s responses and then
eliminate the incomplete ones.

The questionnaire completed responses were transferred and been entered into a database program
‘Microsoft Excel’ spreadsheet.

Using ‘Microsoft Excel’ has enabled the combination of the two tasks of data entry and coding into one.
Meanwhile, using the ‘Likert Scale’ and the interval codes has resulted in the codes to these data items,
depending on the statement as presented in Table 6.

Data Item Code

Strongly Disagree / Very Unlikely / Much Less 1
Disagree / Unlikely / Slightly Less 2
Neutral / Similar 3
Agree / Likely / Slightly More 4
Strongly Agree / Very Likely / Much More 5
Table 6: Codes used for the survey

(Main formula of the survey)

As per (Keni, 2019), the weighted mean =∑ni = 1 (xi*wi)/∑ni = 1wi
This suggests that weighted mean =w1x1 + w2x2 +…+ wnxn/w1 + w2 +…+ wn

29
 Where:-

∑: indicates the Sum

w: Weights
x: Value

The resulted weighted means then have been recategorized under the scale of 1 – 5 to determine the
level of agreement/likelihood.

To decide the maximum and the minimum range of the five Likert items on the scale, that range is
determined by the calculation of ( 5−1= 4 ) before dividing the result (4) by (5) since (5) is the greatest
value of the scale and the final result is to be (0.8). So the range value is (0.8).

After that, the value (1), that is the minimum value on the scale is added to the range value (0.8) for
identifying the maximum of that cell (1.8). Consequently, the levels of agreement/likelihood could be
classified as Table 7 shows.

The Weighted Mean Value Level of Agreement/Likelihood

1.0 to 1.79 Very Low
1.8 to 2.59 Low
2.6 to 3.39 Moderate
3.4 to 4.19 High
4.2 to 5.0 Very High
Table 7: Weighted mean values and their respective levels of agreement/likelihood

3.5.5. Data Weighting

(Richardson et al., 1995) argued that there must be a process of weighting the survey extracted data to
address few factors that would interfere with obtaining information in quality and quantity from the
extracted data.

The only systematic weakness in the data was the selection of the ‘No Answer’ (n/a) option by
respondents. To compensate for this, during the coding and data editing step in the spreadsheets this
option was taken out in all calculations, and therefore the 22 questions have a different number of valid
responses (= n) in the sample.

3.6. Data Analysis Technique

(Kothari, 2004) argued that after the data processing stage then the data analysis should follow. The
phrase ‘Analysis’ refers to the computation of particular measures while exploring if there are patterns
of association which exist within the collected data.

3.6.1. Qualitative Data Analysis

(Saunders et al., 2016) argued that qualitative data analysis assists in making the data to be useful and
allow the researchers to develop a theory or answer questions.

A mixed approach was selected for analysing the qualitative contextual data which was gathered from
the news stories, articles, and reports where the content analysis was adopted to analyse the data.

30
3.6.1.1. The Content Analysis
(Kothari, 2004) argued that content analysis includes the process of the analysis of the content of
documentary materials like newspapers and books.

3.6.2. Quantitative Data Analysis

Analysis can be classified as inferential analysis and descriptive analysis. An inferential analysis is
involved with the different tests of significance to assess hypotheses for deciding which validity data can
be used to reveal conclusions (Kothari, 2004). This type of analysis was selected to analyse the survey
questionnaire data in that research.

3.6.2.1. Statistics in Research

In research, statistics is a tool to design the research, to analyse the data, and to make conclusions.
Statistics in research can be classified into two areas: inferential statistics and descriptive statistics.
Inferential statistics concern with the evaluation of population’s parameters and to examine statistical
hypotheses (Kothari, 2004).

(Kothari, 2004) argued that the statistical measures that are used for summarising surveys data are:
central tendency measures or statistical averages, measures of dispersion, measures of asymmetry,
measures of relationship, and other measures.

It was decided to select the Likert scale in the survey questionnaire and as a result, the central tendency
was selected to be used as a statistical measure and in particular the weighted mean.

3.6.2.3. Central Tendency and The Mean

(Kothari, 2004) indicated that the measures of central tendency inform researchers about the point
where items tend to cluster. That measure is the most representative figure that represent a whole
population. The ‘Mean’ is the most common measure for central tendency where it is the value that
results when the total of the values or different given items are being divided by the total number of
items. Sometimes for getting a more realistic average, the weighted mean is calculated instead of the
simple one.

By using the weighted mean, it was possible to determine the level of agreement among the sample
population regarding the Brexit impacts and it was possible to determine the level of likelihood of
whether the suggested solutions would positively contribute to mitigating the reported negative
impacts or not.

As a result, levels of agreement/likelihood were calculated for the survey respondents towards the
survey statements as Appendix D presents. Appendix D is an additional analysis of subgroups, a step that
was not leading to outcomes as important as the other findings.

3.7. Research Limitations

There were two main limitations in this study. First, the research topic is about Brexit impacts that is still
a new experience. Consequently, there is a lack of existing literature in the research studies. The other
limitations is that this research analyses an entirely new experience, Brexit impacts are changing rapidly,
and new developments are occurring regularly, so, it was impractical to keep updating the research until
the deadline day of the submission of the dissertation. Consequently, a cut-off date for new press and
news information was set in this study to be 30th April 2021.

31
4. RESULTS
4.1. Introduction
Chapter 4 aims to introduce and review the results that were found from the data collection methods
which were previously depicted in chapter 3.

Chapter 4 consists of two major sections. The first section is related to the results that were obtained
from screening the news and press stories from reliable sources in the UK covering the Brexit impacts on
logistics and supply chain activities. It was decided to start covering the news stories that were
published since mid-December 2020 before the deadline of the Brexit transition period till the end of
April 2021, where the first quarter of the year was covered and to ensure that enough period has been
witnessed by the logistics and supply chain industry under the post-Brexit era. The results in this section
come with some basic analysis or descriptive statistics.

The second main section in this chapter is related to the results of the survey questionnaire. The plan
was to get a piece of extra empirical evidence for the news stories’ basic conclusions from the industry
field by surveying logistics and supply chain professionals and academic lecturers in the UK.

4.2. UK Media Coverage of Brexit

This section presents the results after being screened as a whole and then being filtered, categorized,
and structured logically to present the big picture of the Brexit impacts. One difficulty for the factual
presentation of Brexit impacts out of press articles was that many articles were mixing factual
descriptions with opinionated comments pro or against Brexit. Here in this section (4.2), it is necessary
to be as neutral and factual as possible. In the analysis section 5 below, this difficulty, and how to
overcome it, will be explained more in detail.

4.2.1. Pre-Brexit Stockpiling

While retailers were encountering uncertainty regarding the Brexit novel rules, most retailers opted to
stockpile before the Brexit transition period deadline (Anthony, 2020).

Pre-Brexit stockpiling besides the usual busy festive pre-Christmas period through the last weeks of the
year produced an unparalleled and an exceptional international surge of imports to the UK in a manner
that has seriously impacted the sector of logistics (Wood and Partridge, 2020).

4.2.1.1. Lorries Queues

Figure 1: Lorries queue along the A16 motorway in northern France mid-December 2020. Source: The Guardian (2020)

32
In mid-December 2020, there was a 10-mile lorry queue in Calais as Figure 1 shows. French sources
confirmed that there were about 3000 more lorries on the access roads to the port and the Channel
Tunnel during the first half of December 2020 than it is used (O'Carroll, 2020).

Figure 2: The lorries queue in Kent in mid-December 2020. Source: The Independent (2020)

The situation was not different on the other side of the channel. As Figure 2 shows, there was a lorries
queue of 5 miles long in Kent as they were heading to the Channel Tunnel (Blackall, 2020).

4.2.1.2. Ports’ Congestion

Ships had to partially unload consignments allocated to the UK congested ports or totally skip these
ports’ calls and then offload the allocated consignments at ports in Belgium and the Netherlands. The
re-routing for shipments has impacted many suppliers such as Weir and Willis who owned shipments
that were stuck in Belgium (Wood and Partridge, 2020).

A monthly survey that was regarding the period of December 2020, done by IHS Markit and (CIPS),
demonstrated that the shipment lead times faced their steepest trend since IHS Markit/CIPS began
surveying business activity back in 1992 (Partington, 2020).

4.2.1.3. Stuck Shipments

Retailers struggled to fill up their stock in warehouses. Honda opted to stop the manufacturing process
at its plant in Swindon because of the shortage of car parts. Furthermore, IKEA failed to meet the
demand for home furnishings as the shipments of IKEA flatpack furniture were stuck at the UK’s
seaports (Wood and Partridge, 2020).

4.2.2. Post-Brexit New Administrative Overload

Post-Brexit, in order to trade then it would require new trading systems that involve new paperwork and
extra red tape where, for instance, the UK-based traders have to follow many procedures as Figure 3
shows.

Post-Brexit, the UK exporters would need first to register for an (EORI) number. Then the exporter
would need to establish the origin of the goods to identify whether they qualify for lower or no customs
duty. Then for each consignment, the exporters need to complete commercial invoices contain the sales
price of the goods (DFDS, 2021).

33
 Figure 3: New red tape procedures to trade between EU-UK. Source: Deloitte (2021).

The added paperwork post-Brexit for trading goods with the EU includes commercial invoices,
certificates of origin, health and safety licenses and certificates for goods such as plants and food, the
(EAD), and combined customs and safety and security declarations (DFDS, 2021).

4.2.2.1. Denied Entry and Traffic Restrictions

In the very first days of 2021, many lorries’ drivers were stopped and been unable to board the ferries or
passing through the Channel Tunnel end at Port of Dover in the UK to cross the channel to Calais in
France because they did not have the needed paperwork as the new rules require (Savage, 2021).

Due to the chaos on Kent roads that happened before the transition period deadline, the British
authorities had to create the (KAP) which is known as the Brexit passport. KAP is issued electronically to
lorries that its operators have all the needed paperwork for crossing the channel to the EU (O’Carroll,
2021a).

Such new paperwork requirement has caused difficulties for carriers as 636 drivers had been charged
£300 penalties during the first three weeks of 2021 due to the missing of a KAP (O’Carroll, 2021b).

4.2.2.2. UK Business Rejection

Post-Brexit, freight forwarders rejected jobs from companies that ask for transporting cargo to the UK as
the European drivers became no longer interested in entering the UK post-Brexit because of delays and
extra expenses (Holton, 2021a).

4.2.2.3. Stoppage of Haulage

Because of the confusion and the incomplete understanding of the new rules for trading, many British
hauliers had to temporarily halt the business since they have realized that they became no longer able
to transport the cargo to the EU till they fully know the new systems (Staunton, 2021).

34
4.2.2.4. EU-UK Haulage Raising Costs
According to (RHA), the post-Brexit new trade rules were the reason that around half of the lorries
returning to mainland Europe from the UK while having empty loads. Pre-Brexit, the empty return loads
level would normally be around 18% maximum. Hauliers opted to charge more for accepting to move
cargo from mainland Europe to the UK and that resulted in that the haulage’s spot rate between France-
UK in the 3rd week of 2021 to be around 50% greater than the average of the third quarter of the 2020
year (Clarke, 2021).

4.2.2.5. Industries Disruptions

At the beginning of February 2021, a pharmaceutical company based in Wales had to move production
into Ireland due to the mountain of red tape post-Brexit. The pharma company had three hundred
shipments blocked in the system inside the EU due to the lack of required paperwork and since the
consignments were time-sensitive cancer drugs, so the company did not have other option but to throw
them away and move the production from the UK to Ireland (O'Carroll, 2021c).

As per the (NFU) and the (NPA), no livestock have been exported from the UK to the European
marketplaces since 1 January 2021. The mentioned reason was that there were no (BCPs) for the
livestock at the EU ports (Kevany, 2021).

By the end of March 2021, the (FSB) has revealed that 35 of 132 exporters that were surveyed had
either suspend trade with the EU or even stop the trade permanently because of delivery delays and
increased costs (jolly, 2021).

4.2.3. Re-Directing of Freight

For decades, cargo carriers who operate between mainland Europe and ROI have favoured the UK as a
land-bridge because that route was faster and less costly for lorries’ drivers (Dickins, 2021). The UK land-
bridge route, as Figure 4 shows, is estimated to be used by 150,000 lorries annually, comprises sailing in
the Irish Sea on board of ferries from Dublin in ROI to the port of Holyhead in Wales, or the port of
Rosslare in ROI to port of Pembroke in Wales before doing a land drive in the UK to travel between
Dover in England and Calais on the French coast (Lough and Halpin, 2021).

Figure 4: The UK Land-bridge Route. Source: Irish Farmers Journal (2019).

35
4.2.3.1. Bypassing the UK Land-bridge
European hauliers and Irish traders have been enforced to think about avoiding the UK land-bridge
route to evade the delays and started using the direct routes between the Irish island and mainland
Europe (Lough and Halpin, 2021).

4.2.3.2. New Direct Routes

As a reaction to the new trend of shifting the freight movements to the new direct routes, the Irish Sea
ferries’ operators have decided to increase the number of the direct shipping routes services and ferries
between France and ROI, as Figure 5 shows, so that the operators can meet the post-Brexit different
new demand (Lough and Halpin, 2021).

Figure 5: New direct freight routes from ROI to the EU. Source: BBC News (2021a).

Rosslare Europort which is ROI’s second busiest freight port runs 28 weekly services between ROI and
mainland Europe compared to just 10 weekly services prior to the Brexit transition period deadline
(Euractiv, 2021).

‘Stena Line’ has opted to double its shipping services for connecting Rosslare to Cherbourg in France
while cancelling some of its operations between ROI and the UK ports because of the dramatic fall of
60% in freight volume on these routes in the first two weeks of January 2021 (Lough and Halpin, 2021).

The new routes added around £351 per load and took additional 6 hours compared to using the UK
land-bridge but the Irish hauliers still favoured it over the UK land-bridge route post-Brexit(O'Carroll,
2021c).

Many NI businesses which used to ship cargo to England through travel to Dublin then Holyhead Port in
Wales had opted to change and started using ferries from Larne or Belfast from NI to Liverpool or
Cairnryan ports in England as Figure 6 shows (Campbell, 2021a).

36
 Figure 6: Stena Line ferries routes. Source: Stena Line (2021).

4.2.3.3. Ferries Capacity Issues

In January 2021, (DFDS) confirmed that their freight ferries for the new route between Rosslare and
Dunkirk in France were completely booked (Euractiv, 2021). Shippers who booked into the new routes
of (DFDS) between France and the Irish island have said that their bookings were not being honoured.
But the Irish Sea logistics operators as (DFDS) said that they have to prioritize the transportation of the
vital imports of medical supplies at this time of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic (Carswell, 2021).

4.2.4. Post-Brexit Tariff Regime

A deal between UK-EU was agreed on where it guarantees a zero tariff and zero quota access for the
trade of goods between both parties. However, for qualifying to get such a zero tariff treatment it still
has to be subject for the ‘Rules of Origin’ (Islam, 2021b).

Another change that was caused by Brexit was the changes to the (VAT) rules done by (HMRC) where
the new VAT model guarantees that UK businesses are not being disadvantaged by foreign competitors
and ensuring that is no longer VAT-free EU imports (Plummer, 2021).

Logistics and freight transport companies reacted to that by imposing surcharges on shipments between
EU-UK (Plummer, 2021).

4.2.4.1. Re-Exporting Trade Disruptions

The businesses that rely on the re-exportation trade face struggles resulted from the effects of the rules
of origin and an example for such a situation is the M&S company and their famous product the Percy
Pigs sweet. The production and the packaging of that sweets are being done in Germany before being
transferred to the M&S warehouses in the UK. But when the sweets are being re-exported to ROI as an
EU member, then a tariff may be needed to be paid despite being manufactured in the EU at the
beginning (Reuben, 2021).

The process of analyzing and approving the percentage of the products’ origins is very complex and the
suppliers are still not prepared to deliver audit trail for all products to the manufacturers and
wholesalers where such a process shall require two months at least for only getting the origin data from
the original suppliers (O’Carroll, 2021d).

The (BRC) revealed that fifty of its members, at least, found that there would be potential tariffs to be
paid for re-exporting cargoes to the EU (Wood, 2021).

37
4.2.4.2. Suspension of the UK Deliveries
As per the new trade rules post-Brexit, the collection of VAT is to be done at the point of sale instead of
the point of purchase like before Brexit, as a result, new registration for UK VAT is required from the EU
retailers to be able then to account VAT to the British authorities when the item sale value is lower than
£135 (O’Carroll and Henley, 2021).

‘Dutch Bike’ stated in January 2021 that it would halt all delivery orders to the UK due to the changes in
the VAT system (Jones, Snowdon and Mustoe, 2021). ‘Scandinavian Outdoor’ has decided to stop the
orders' delivery to the UK till the completion of the UK VAT registration process (Plummer, 2021).

4.2.4.3. Logistics Companies Extra Investments

(TNT) started to impose a surcharge of £4.31 on all shipments between the EU-UK. (TNT) which is now
part of FedEx, DHL, and UPS, all have been making extra-large investments to adjust the systems,
solutions, processes, and resourcing to be able to operate as per the post-Brexit rules. Many logistics
companies decided to increase transportation rates for shipping goods and parcels between EU-UK.
(Plummer, 2021).

4.2.4.4. EU Hauliers Extra Financial Burden

Post-Brexit, the EU hauliers are being requested to deliver the British authorities with financial
guarantees that are known as (T1s) for covering the VAT once arrived in the UK (O’Carroll, 2021e). Post-
Brexit, a lorry loaded with £200,000 goods will have to have a (T1) document of forty thousand pounds
for just covering the potential VAT (O’Carroll, 2021e).

Consequently, many EU hauliers began rejecting the UK-based businesses to just dodge that burden.
The data indicates that during the 2nd week of the 2021 year, the rate of rejecting the transporting of
goods to the UK was up to almost 170% during the third quarter of the 2020 year and that rate was
doubled over in the 1st week of January 2021 (O’Carroll, 2021e).

4.2.5. Northern Ireland

As previously explained by details in section (2.6.), Figure 7 indicates how the Northern Irish protocol
means that NI will have to follow the EU customs and standards rules while trading goods with others
including trading goods with GB (Davey, 2021).

4.2.5.1. Food Supplies Shortage

Despite that part of NI protocol mentioned that the NI supermarkets will have a grace of three months
to be able to adapt to the new trading system (Gordon, 2021), there were major disruptions. Food
products are being moved in lorries in mixed loads where that type of haulage involves goods from
many different locations and businesses are being grouped and loaded inside the same lorry and then
destinated for distinct destinations and clients. Such a transportation process known as ‘Groupage’.

Food products that are loaded on a single lorry might contain milk, meat, and fish. These types of
products when arriving from outside the EU like from GB will then have to be checked and also to be
certified by vets to be able to enter NI (Campbell, 2021b).

38
 Figure 7: The Irish Sea Borders. Source: BBC (2021).

The lorry then has then to be sealed after certification. That might be a very clear and straightforward
process on one condition which is that the whole load of the truck is from one GB business destinated to
one NI business, but groupage means that there will be cargo belongs to different GB suppliers in a
single truckload destinated for different NI clients and then the difficulties occur when these lorries be
asked for breaking the seals for recertifying the cargo and then sealing the lorry for multiple times which
is such a very complex and time-consuming process for hauliers. Consequently, many GB hauliers began
rejecting any groupage food product loads from GB to NI and that has negatively affected the food
supply chains in NI, particularly the medium-sized and the small-sized businesses that are severely
dependent on the groupage haulage (Campbell, 2021b).

4.2.5.2. GB-NI Transport Costs

NI haulage firms opted to raise the cost of shipping cargo to GB from NI as a result of Brexit impacts
where one of these companies has planned to raise the transportation costs by twelve percent (Halpin,
2021).

4.2.5.3. GB-NI Businesses Suspension

Many plant retailers in GB have halted sales to NI customers. GB businesses have to handle inspections
and checks up to 4 distinct checkpoints during the supply chain journey, which adds costs and time to
their plants business due to the EU rules regarding the plant health regulations (Blaney and Campbell,
2021).

4.2.5.4. GB-NI Orders Cancellation

Due to a ban on plants that was imposed by the EU, purchases of about one hundred thousand trees
were cancelled by NI customers. At the start of February, a ban on British soil that is traded to NI has
emerged in a move that has enforced a total block on British nurseries supplies to NI from the whole GB
(O'Carroll, 2021f).

39
In April 2021, ‘Logistics UK’, has revealed that since January 2021 almost 50% of its businesses have
faced delays or cancellations to their exports to NI because of post-Brexit border rules (Vardy, 2021).

4.2.5.5. Extending Grace Periods

By the start of March 2021, the UK has decided unilaterally for extending the grace periods for the Irish
Sea border checks. The first of these grace periods was extended until October 2021 instead of the end
of March 2021 as was previously agreed with the EU (Campbell, 2021c).

4.2.6. The Scottish Fishing Industry

Fishing and seafood are time-sensitive industries and that is why the Scottish seafood supply chain was
one of the very first supply chains that have been badly affected by Brexit impacts. The end of the
frictionless trade between UK-EU has triggered many barriers and the Scottish fishers now are facing an
uncertain future for their trade that is worth more than £1bn to Scottish businesses (Carrell, 2021).

4.2.6.1. Consignment Delays

Post-Brexit, customs and checks are causing a huge delay for the trade process since that the entire
trailers of seafood and fish now need to be checked before it leaves Scotland rather than representative
samples like before the Brexit. Under the new post-Brexit rules, an (EHC) is mandatory for moving the
fish from Scotland to the EU, vets have to sign off each consignment and it is estimated that it would
take six times longer than it is supposed to take because of the lack of veterinary service capacity (BBC
News, 2021b).

4.2.6.2. Markets’ Access Denied

Boulogne in France is the marketplace for around 80% of the UK fish produce that is exported to the EU
(Fraser, 2021a). In the first week of the post-Brexit era in France, 25 trucks of Scottish seafood were
backlogged for clearance because of IT issues in Boulogne (BBC News, 2021c).

Shipments failed to get to market in time after being forced to be diverted from Boulogne to Dunkirk
due to computer problems in Boulogne port (Carrell, 2021).

4.2.6.3. Suspension of Logistics Services

At the beginning of the first month in the post-Brexit era, the major seafood exporter (DFDS Logistics)
has temporarily halted export groupage loads after being affected by the new paperwork and the IT
issues (BBC News, 2021d).

Normally, paperwork needs to be secured first and then the consignments are sent to DFDS’s
warehouses in Lanarkshire where several small consignments of seafood are merged into the trucks
beofre being shipped to cross the Strait of Dover towards the largest market that lies in Boulogne in
France. That groupage haulage for seafood from different ports, and many fish species, being sent for
different wholesalers, caused a complex process in the paperwork like what happened in NI. Industry
sources reported a dramatic drop in seafood and fish exports (Fraser, 2021b).

4.2.6.4. Rejected Consignments

Pre-Brexit, Scottish seafood and fish exporters were able to send their shipments to the largest market
at Boulogne in twenty four hours, but in the first weeks of 2021, the shipments took three days to arrive
at Boulogne (Carrell, 2021). Many Scottish fishing companies said that French buyers have rejected the
Scottish fish exports due to the late arrival of the shipments after being delayed by the new customs
procedures (Holton, 2021b).

40
The Scottish fishermen had to turn to fish auctions in Denmark instead of France in trips that take 72-
hour to arrive in Denmark so that the fish shipments can arrive its destination while being still fresh and
make a fair sale price (Barsoe, 2021).

4.2.6.5. Exports Restrictions

In February 2021, the EU imposed indefinite restrictions on fishers from the UK selling live bivalve
molluscs to the EU Member States. Before Brexit, seafood products were allowed to be purified after
being transferred to the final destination. Starting from January 2021, UK-based businesses are only
authorized to send pre-purified or ready-to-eat shellfish to the EU. As per the EU rules, shellfish that are
caught in the cleanest waters, (Class A Waters), can be transferred to the EU without purification.
However, most of the British coastal waters do not have the category of class A (BBC News, 2021e).

4.3. The Survey Questionnaire Results

That section illustrates the results of the online survey questionnaire that was performed out to provide
empirical evidence that would either support or contradict the reported press stories and to test the
suggested solutions success chances that would help in resolving the reported disruption for logistics
and supply chain activities in the UK post-Brexit.

This section includes graphical representations for the results of the questionnaire where 117
respondents of logistics and supply chain professionals and professors shared their thoughts regarding
22 statements on a Likert scale questions format.

4.3.1. The Respondents’ Profiles

EDUCATION QUALIFICATION
Secondary
PhD Certificate
25% 19%

Master Graduate
25% 31%

Figure 8: The survey respondents’ education qualifications.

Concerning the education level, Figure 8 shows the participants’ qualifications. The diagram reveals that
half of the respondents possess a postgraduate qualification where PhD and master’s degree holders are
25% each. Meanwhile, nearly one-third are graduates and the rest 19% hold a secondary certificate
qualification.

41
 PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND
Shipping Other
operative 2% Academic
2%
24%

Management
72%

Figure 9: The survey respondents’ professional backgrounds.

Considering the background, Figure 9 reveals the respondents’ professional backgrounds. Nearly three-
quarters of the respondents have a management background. Almost a quarter 24% belong to
academia. A tiny portion 2% voted for having a shipping operative background.

WORKING SECTORMaritime
Public Sector Other
2% Logistics Food Logistics
Consulting2% 4% 5%
5%
Parcels Logistics
6%
Cold chain
Higher
Logistics
Education
4%
26%

Logistics
(others)
25%
Supply Chain Purchasing
19% 2%

Figure 10: The survey respondents’ working sectors.

In terms of the working sector, Figure 10 indicates that approximately a quarter of respondents work for
the higher education sector. Exactly one quarter 25% opted to choose other logistics sector.
Furthermore, respondents belong to the supply chain sector made up 19% of the total number.
Conversely, the other sectors have far smaller percentages where parcel logistics sector counted for 6%,
food logistics and consulting sectors had 5% each, cold chain logistics and maritime logistics had 4%
each, and each of purchasing, public sector and the other unmentioned sector accounted for only 2%.

42
4.3.2. The Post-Brexit Customs Declarations

Statement (1): During the first weeks of 2021 post-Brexit, road haulage has
struggled at crossing the English Channel with denied entries, delays and extra
costs that resulted from post-Brexit changes in customs declarations
requirements, and as a result, some freight forwarders and trucks' drivers
avoiding UK businesses.
2.59% Number of Responses: (n = 116)
3.45%
Weighted Mean: 4.25
Level of Agreement: Very High (4.25)
4.31%

44.83%

44.83%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 11: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the road haulage disruptions post-Brexit.

Figure 11 illustrates the respondents’ perception towards the road haulage disruptions. Almost 90% of
the respondents have either strongly agreed or agreed with Statement (1). By contrast, tiny fractions
have either disagreed (nearly 3%) or strongly disagreed (almost 3%) with the same statement.

Statement (2): Because of post-Brexit paperwork, most of the freight

trucks that were returning from the UK to the EU had empty return loads,
as a result, the hauliers had to raise the rates for freight transport to the
UK and that has affected the logistics and supply chain activities in the UK.
Number of Responses: (n = 110)
2.73%
Weighted Mean: 3.90
8.18% Level of Agreement: High (3.90)

13.64%

46.36%

29.09%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 12: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the post-Brexit paperwork impacts on supply chain activities.

Figure 12 shows a high level of agreement (3.9) regarding the post-Brexit paperwork impacts. More than
three-quarters of the respondents have agreed (around 46%) or strongly agreed (approximately 29%)
with statement (2). In comparison, the minority of respondents (almost 22%) have either opted to
remain neutral (about 14%) or disagreed (roughly 8%) with statement (2). Just below 3% have strongly
disagreed.

43
 Statement (3): Post-Brexit, many UK businesses have struggled with delays
and increased costs for moving goods to the EU, as a result, many UK
businesses are opting to temporarily suspend trade with EU-based
customers or even stop permanently.
Number of Responses: (n = 116)
Weighted Mean: 3.66
6.03% Level of Agreement: High (3.66)

12.93%

16.38%

37.93%

26.72%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 13: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the disruptions of trade with the EU customers post-Brexit.

Figure 13 shows a rather high level of agreement (3.66) on the disruptions of trade between UK retailers
and EU customers. Almost 38% of respondents have agreed and nearly 27% have strongly agreed with
statement (3). Conversely, just above one-third of the respondents have opted to be neutral (around
16%), disagreed (almost 13%), or strongly disagreed (about 6%).

Statement (4): How likely the investing in hiring more customs agents who
have experience with non-EU overseas imports/exports by the involved
businesses and freight transport firms would positively contribute to resolving
the issues related to the post-Brexit extra needed paperwork for trading
goods between EU-UK?
1.74% Number of Responses:(n = 115)
Weighted Mean: 3.87
8.70% Level of Likelihood: High (3.87)
16.52%

46.09%

26.96%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 14: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of hiring more customs agents.

Figure 14 shows a high level of likelihood (3.87) of the success chances for the solution of hiring more
customs agents by businesses. Almost three-quarters of the respondents think the solution is either very
likely (almost 27%) or likely (roughly 46%) to resolve the mentioned issue. On the other hand, just below
11% had an opposite view.

44
 Statement (5): How likely the establishing of a branch, warehouse, or depot in the
EU by the UK-based businesses for serving their EU customers would positively
contribute to resolving the issues related to the post-Brexit extra delays or costly
shipping for trading goods with the EU?
Number of Responses: (n = 115)
1.74% Weighted Mean: 3.96
Level of Likelihood: High (3.96)
9.57%

14.78%

38.26%

35.65%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 15: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of the establishment of EU-based facilities.

There is a high level of likelihood (3.96) and good success chances for the solution of establishing EU
facilities by the UK businesses. 74% of the participants are optimistic about the solution’s success odds.
Interestingly, just below 2% of the respondents are very pessimistic about the chances. Less than 10%
see that it is unlikely to help.

4.3.3. The Post-Brexit Tariff Regime Effects

Statement (6): Because of the post-Brexit tariff regime, the UK Businesses that
depend on the re-exporting trade with the EU are facing trade disruptions
because of the 'Rules of Origin'.
Number of Responses: (n = 107)
Weighted Mean: 3.96
2.80%
Level of Agreement: High (3.96)
4.67%

11.21%

56.07%

25.23%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 16: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the disruptions that resulted from the ‘Rules of Origin’ post-Brexit.

Figure 16 reflects the participants’ views regarding the negative impact of ‘Rules of Origin’. Remarkably,
well over three quarters have either agreed (about 56%) or strongly agreed (approximately 25%) with
statement (6). By contrast, less than 3% strongly disagreed and just below 5% disagreed about the
negative impact of the ‘Rules of Origin’.

45
 Statement (7): Most of the global freight transportation firms have already raised
the rates for the shipments between EU-UK given their incremental investments
on the needed changes to their systems, processes, solutions to operate as per
the post-Brexit tariff regime new rules.
Number of Responses: (n = 110)
0.00% Weighted Mean: 4.05
5.45%
Level of Agreement: High (4.05)

11.82%

54.55%

28.18%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 17: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the raised rates of shipping between EU-UK post-Brexit.

Figure 17 emphasises the respondents’ perception towards the reported raised shipping rates between
EU-UK. The majority of participants (almost 83%) opted to either strongly agree (around 28%) or agree
(about 55%) with the mentioned statement. Notably, none of the 110 responses 0% opted for the
‘Strongly disagree’ choice. Furthermore, only around 5% disagreed.

Statement (8): How likely the greater localization of the UK-based businesses' supply
chains and particularly the on-shoring of raw materials would positively contributes
to resolve the issues related to the post-Brexit tariff regime?
Number of Responses: (n = 113)
Weighted Mean: 3.53
Level of Likelihood: High (3.53)
2.65%

17.70%

20.35%

42.48%

16.81%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 18: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of localizing the UK supply chains.

Figure 18 expresses how the participants see the likelihood of the success of adopting the solution of
localizing the UK supply chains. Nearly 59% of the respondents tended to be optimistic about the
mentioned solution. Just above the same percentage opted to outline the solution as unlikely (around
18%) or very unlikely approximately 3% to be successful.

46
 Statement (9): How likely the greater usage of the bonded warehouses concept
by businesses would positively contributes to resolve the issues related to the
re-exporting trade after Brexit?
Number of Responses: (n = 112)
Weighted Mean: 3.66
2.68%
Level of Likelihood: High (3.66)
14.29%

16.96%

45.54%

20.54%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 19: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of the usage of the bonded warehouses post-
Brexit.

Figure 19 analyses the respondents’ estimation for the likelihood of the success of the usage of the
bonded warehouses. Nearly 66% of the participants believe in that solution where approximately 21%
opted to consider it as a very likely successful solution. Nonetheless, just below 15% see it is unlikely
that this solution will be a hit and almost 3% are very pessimistic about the solution.

Statement (10): How likely the greater usage of doing business between EU-UK
according to the Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) incoterms would positively contributes
to resolve the issues related to post-Brexit VAT system changes?
Number of Responses: (n = 103)
Weighted Mean: 3.39
Level of Likelihood: Moderate (3.39)
6.80%

14.56%

23.30%

42.72%

12.62%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 20: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of the use of the DDP incoterms post-Brexit.

Figure 20 offers an indication of how the participants see the success chances of the usage of the (DDP)
incoterms. More than half of the respondents are positive about the solution’s prospects with almost
13% selected the ‘Very likely’ choice. Meanwhile, a percentage comprised of around 21% of the
participants are pessimistic about the solution’s chances.

47
4.3.4. The UK Land-bridge and the New Routes

Statement (11): Because of post-Brexit border delays, hauliers and shipping

companies started to explore and use new routes to avoid the UK land-bridge
which was favoured by hauliers to move goods from mainland Europe to Ireland.
Number of Responses: (n = 112)
2.68%
Weighted Mean: 3.85
8.04% Level of Agreement: High (3.85)
17.86%

43.75%

27.68%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 21: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the new direct routes for trade between EU-ROI post-Brexit.

Figure 21 delineates the respondents’ impression about whether the trend to use the new trade routes
between the EU and ROI was a result of the need to avoid the UK land-bridge or not. A significant
proportion of about 71% of the participants is in favour of statement (11). By contrast, just above 8%
disagreed with statement (11).

Statement (12): How much does it cost to send shipment via the UK land-bridge
route compared to the sea only route under current trading situations?
Number of Responses: (n = 88)
Weighted Mean: 2.64
Evaluation of Cost Difference: Similar Cost(2.64)
6.82%

23.86%

19.32%

27.27%

22.73%

Much less Slightly less Similar Little more Much more

Figure 22: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the cost of the trade new direct routes between EU-ROI.

Figure 22 explores the participants’ evaluation for the difference in cost between using the UK land-
bridge compared to using the sea direct routes for trading between mainland Europe and ROI.
Surprisingly, only a noticeable minority (almost 7%) of the respondents agreed with the press reports
that it costs much less to use the UK land-bridge. Nonetheless, exactly half of the participants reported
that using the UK land-bridge costs more. Meanwhile, approximately 19% of them see no difference in
cost.

48
 Statement (13): How likely the trend of selecting the new direct routes rather than the
UK land-bridge would positively contribute to resolving the issues related to delays
and the uncertainty in regards to trading flows between mainland Europe and Ireland.
Number of Responses: (n = 105)
Weighted Mean: 3.58
3.81% Level of Likelihood: High (3.58)

13.33%

20.95%

44.76%

17.14%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 23: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of the trend of avoiding the UK land-bridge.

Figure 23 illustrates the respondents’ impressions about the success possibilities of the trend of avoiding
the UK land-bridge route. Just below 62% of the participants are betting on that solution’s success.
Contrariwise, a small portion of around 17% of the respondents has negative thoughts regarding that
solution prospects.

4.3.5. Northern Ireland Supply Chains Disruptions

Statement (14): Post-Brexit, the Northern Ireland Protocol has caused disruptions
for the freight groupage services which by result caused goods' shortage in many
businesses in Northern Ireland (NI) such as supermarkets and other industries that
depend on suppliers from Great Britain (GB).
Number of Responses: (n = 112)
0.89%
Weighted Mean: 4.02
Level of Agreement: High (4.02)
8.04%

13.39%

42.86%

34.82%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 24: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol impacts on trade.

Figure 24 demonstrates the participants’ opinions about the impacts of the groupage transport service
disruptions. More than three-quarters of the respondents agreed or strongly agreed with statement
(14). On the contrary, a tiny portion of just below 1% strongly disagreed and around 8% of the
participants disagreed with the statement.

49
 Statement (15): Post-Brexit, many businesses in NI had to suspend or even
permanently stop businesses with GB suppliers and shift for local or Irish suppliers
because of the new extra time and costs when it comes to importing goods from
GB.
Number of Responses: (n = 104)
Weighted Mean: 3.63
0.96%
Level of Agreement: High (3.63)
12.50%

25.96%

43.27%

17.31%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 25: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the disruptions of trade between NI-GB post-Brexit.

Figure 25 shows the respondents’ views about the extra time and cost in trade between NI-GB that
caused disruptions. Marginally above 60% agreed or strongly agreed with statement (15). Meanwhile,
roughly one-quarter of the participants remained neutral towards the claims on that statement.
Furthermore, just below 14% disagreed or strongly disagreed.

Statement (16): How likely the EU Health and Safety Standards required
certificates (i.e. the Health Certificates) negatively impact the logistics and
supply chain activities in NI?
Number of Responses: (n = 105)
Weighted Mean: 3.84
3.81% Level of Likelihood: High (3.84)

11.43%

13.33%

39.05%

32.38%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 26: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the effect of the EU Health and Safety Standards certificates on the NI
supply chains.

Figure 26 describes the participants’ assessments for the likelihood of the negative effects from the EU
health and safety standards’ requirements. A significant majority are convinced that the EU health and
safety standards requirements have negative impacts. Nonetheless, a small minority around 15% had an
opposite view.

50
 Statement (17): How likely that the suggested solution that sees the UK
government agree on a kind of mutual recognition of health and safety standards
for traded goods with the EU or have a similar model like the Swiss model would
positively contribute to resolving the issues related to the agri-food shipments
and ease disruption on GB-NI shipping?
0.00% Number of Responses: (n = 105)
Weighted Mean: 4.20
1.77%
Level of Likelihood: Very High (4.20)
9.73%

54.87%

33.63%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 27: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of adopting the Swiss model for the Health and
Safety Standards.

Figure 27 depicts the respondents’ estimations for the success prospects of adopting the Swiss model. A
very large proportion (almost 89%) believe that it is likely or even very likely for that solution to be
successful. By contrast, only a tiny portion below 2% selected the ‘Unlikely’ choice. Interestingly, none of
the 105 responses was ‘Very Unlikely’.

4.3.6. The Scottish Seafood Industry Disruptions

Statement (18): Post-Brexit, the extra needed time to secure the required health
certificates for each seafood consignment from Scotland before being exported to
the EU has caused damaging disruptions to the Scottish seafood supply chains.
Number of Responses: (n = 100)
2.00% Weighted Mean: 4.27
Level of Agreement: Very High (4.27)
4.00%

7.00%

39.00%

48.00%

Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Figure 28: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the Scottish seafood supply chain disruptions post-Brexit.

Figure 28 presents the participants’ perceptions regarding the negative impact of the extra needed time
to secure the health certificates post-Brexit. A very large proportion 87% agreed or strongly agreed with
statement (18). Conversely, a tiny fraction of 6% disagreed or strongly disagreed with the mentioned
claim.

51
 Statement (19): How likely the disruptions for the groupage transportation service
between Scotland and mainland Europe post-Brexit negatively impact the logistics
and supply chain activities related to perishable goods such as the Scottish seafood
products?
Number of Responses: (n = 104)
0.96% Weighted Mean: 4.12
Level of Likelihood: High (4.12)
5.77%

9.62%

47.12%

36.54%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 29: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the effect of the groupage transportation service disruptions.

Figure 29 indicates the respondents’ views regarding how likely the disruptions of the groupage
transportation service have badly affected the Scottish seafood industry post-Brexit. Almost 84% of the
participants believe that these disruptions have negative impacts. On the other hand, just less than 7%
think otherwise.

Statement (20): How likely the EU Health and Safety Standards required
certificates (i.e. the Health Certificates) negatively impact the logistics and
supply chain activities in Scotland?
Number of Responses: (n = 104)
1.92% Weighted Mean: 3.93
Level of Likelihood: High (3.93)
7.69%

14.42%

47.12%

28.85%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 30: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the effect of the EU Health and Safety Standards’ requirements on the
Scottish supply chains.

Figure 30 emphasises the participants’ thoughts regarding the negative effects that were experienced by
the Scottish seafood supply chains due to the EU health and safety standards certificates. Just below
10% were not concerned about these negative impacts. By contrast, more than three-quarters of the
respondents affirmed that these certificates caused disruptions.

52
 Statement (21): How likely the solution of exploring new near markets like
Denmark to replace France and Spain would positively contribute to resolving
the issues related to the Scottish seafood perishable products post-Brexit?
Number of Responses: (n = 104)
Weighted Mean: 3.20
4.81% Level of Likelihood: Moderate (3.20)

26.92%

21.15%

37.50%

9.62%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 31: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of exploring new markets for the Scottish
seafood products after Brexit.

Figure 31 reflects the participants’ estimations about the suggested solution of exploring new markets.
Only nearly 47% of the respondents believed in that solution with only under around 10% of them
selected the ‘Very likely’ choice. In comparison, nearly one-third of them did not see the potential
success’s odds for that solution.

Statement (22): How likely the solution that involves the UK government to
negotiate and agree on a six-month or longer grace period for the Scottish fish
exports would positively contribute to resolving the issues related to the Scottish
seafood perishable products post-Brexit?
Number of Responses: (n = 104)
3.85% Weighted Mean: 3.51
Level of Likelihood: High (3.51)
13.46%

25.96%

40.38%

16.35%

Very unlikely Unlikely Neutral Likely Very likely

Figure 32: The survey respondents’ perception regarding the suggested solution of negotiating for a grace period for trading the
Scottish seafood products post-Brexit.

Figure 32 reveals the respondents’ evaluations for the suggested solution of negotiating a grace period
for trading the Scottish fish exports to the EU. The results suggest that almost 57% of the participants
believe in that solution prospects. On the other hand, a small minority of approximately 18% do not that
solution as a successful one. Meanwhile, around a quarter opted for the ‘Neutral’ choice.

53
5. ANALYSIS
5.1. Introduction
Chapter 5 offers a comprehensive analysis for the results showed in chapter 4. Chapter 5 purpose is to
critically analyse that results in-depth and answering the research’s questions about the impacts and
recommendations. Chapter 5 is much more than presenting results, it is adding new analysis and
develops new original ideas about causes and effects, explains the findings of chapters 2 and 4, shows
why they are coherent, and also is about recommendations on solutions that were not mentioned
before.

5.2. Discussion
5.2.1. Analysis of causalities for the pre-Brexit disruptions
In sub-section (4.2.1.), several pre-Brexit distributions for logistics and supply chain activities in the UK
were reported. These reported disruptions were witnessed during the very few weeks prior to the
deadline of the Brexit transition period. These reported disruptions included a halt of many plants’
production and struggling of meeting customer’s demands by many retailers and suppliers in the UK.

Brexit has started a series of events chain that led in the end to the major experienced disruptions pre-
Brexit. Brexit itself as a change of political and economic rules and systems meant that a transition
period has to be implemented to allow stakeholders to prepare and be ready for the new systems.
While the deadline of that transition period was approaching -the start of January 2021- and no news
about an agreed trade deal between EU-UK, therefore, the retailers and manufacturers faced a high
level of uncertainty towards the near future of their business.

Uncertainty about how the trade systems will be following the deadline date of the transition period has
caused issues. The UK retailers might have been afraid that their inventory levels would be affected if
the new rules included imposing tariffs and duties on the imported EU supplies. Therefore, the UK
retailers and manufacturers might have opted to be on the safe side and decided to stockpile as much
amount of goods as possible prior to the deadline date of the transition period. By doing so, they could
still trade under the umbrella of the EU Single Market where there are no trade barriers at all between
EU-UK. As a result, the retailers could guarantee that their trade to be frictionless and without any
potential tariff or duties. Hence, the retailers guarantee that their businesses can operate financially
viable with that stock.

The existing literature suggested in sub-section (2.7.) that supply chain and logistics managers nowadays
make decisions upon many aspects like transport availability, inventory levels, risk, and even
environmental factors before they consider factors like tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Therefore, the
business decided to deal with the uncertainty concerns that were mentioned in sub-section (4.2.1.) by
stockpiling as much cargo as possible to protect their inventory levels for the near future. This strong
working hypothesis was confirmed by the survey results showed in sub-section (4.2.1.).

It might be thought that the EU and the UK negotiators, who agreed on the Brexit transition period,
have made a poor planning decision by selecting the date of the deadline of the transition period to
coincide with the Christmas festive period.

54
The claimed stockpiling trend pre-Brexit has coincided with the always high-demand festive period, as a
result, there was unprecedented demand on importing goods to the UK ports. That means more
shipments to be sent to the UK ports and consequently more vessels need to berth in these ports in a
very narrow time window, therefore, the demand for the port's services shall exceed the port's capacity
which results in ports’ congestion. An unexpected and unprecedented surge of cargo movements shall
always result in congestion at the ports.

The mentioned results in sub-section (4.2.1.) such as UK ports’ congestion have also confirmed the
hypothesis developed with the literature review in sub-section (2.8.2.), regarding the impacts of ports’
congestion, where (Jansson & Shneerson, 1982) argued that when the real demand exceeds the
capacity, severe congestion costs happen and when a seaport is said to be congested, that is generally
meant that vessels queue and awaiting for getting a berth.

Another point that represents an agreement between the literature thoughts and the study results was
when the UK ports’ congestion has forced the shipping companies to skip the clogged UK ports calls and
the shipments had to be re-routed to Belgium and that was explained by (Meersman et al., 2012) where
he argued that the delays will affect the decision of shipping companies when they decide ports of call
for their vessels and they will try to avoid congested ports. Such congestion shall cause delays in cargo
handling operations in ports, which then will lead to a delay in goods’ movements from the ports’
premises to the warehouses of the retailers and affects the length of shipments lead times. Such delays
will disrupt the supply chains in many ways like the ones mentioned in sub-section (4.2.1.) about the
halt of productions and the fail to meet the customers’ demand.

5.2.2. Analysis of causalities for the post-Brexit disruptions that were resulted from the excessive
administrative issues

In sub-section (4.2.2.), several post-Brexit distributions for the activities of logistics and supply chain in
the UK were reported. The reported disruptions in the very first weeks post-Brexit in 2021 includes
lorries traffic restrictions, EU entry denial, rejection for UK shipping business, stoppage of road haulage
services, higher costs for haulage services between EU-UK, relocation of production for some industries,
life exports disruptions, and suspension of businesses with EU customers.

Brexit meant the UK has to leave the EU Single Market and the EU Customs Union which as a result
made the UK to be considered as a third country. Therefore, any trade of goods between EU-UK will not
be done under the umbrella of the Single Market. Consequently, that was the end of the frictionless
trade era. Furthermore, the traders on both sides EU-UK now need to trade as per new rules that
involve extra administrative work and more red tape. The UK being a third country means that for any
animal or plant goods, the UK has to follow the EU health and safety standards. Therefore, more border
checks need to be done before being allowed to cross the border.

The results mentioned in chapter 4 regarding the disruptions caused by delays have mostly confirmed
the hypothesis made showing existing literature. In sub-section (2.7.), (Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that
visibility and speed are critical for operating global supply chains and any threat to either could badly
affect the UK. In addition, the UK faces a major risk to its supply chains if the frictionless trade systems
that were provided by the Single European Market are dismantled. Furthermore, the disruptions for the
UK livestock exports because of the lack of the check facilities such as the (BCPs) have affirmed
(Manners-Bell, 2019) arguments in sub-section (2.7.6.) where it was mentioned that post-Brexit the
infrastructure needs to facilitate the goods’ movement.

55
It is noticeable that the results have contradicted the existing literature on some points. In sub-section
(2.7.6.), the existing literature has predicted that the freight forwarders shall benefit from the added
complexity of paperwork needed to move goods. Surprisingly, the results showed the opposite. The
freight forwarders had to reject UK businesses since the European drivers became not interested to
serve UK businesses to avoid the uncertainty and delays at borders because of the paperwork issues
post-Brexit.

New rules and paperwork requirements for trade means more time, extra staff, extra cost, more
paperwork mistakes, more checks, more cases of denied access at borders, and more unprecedented
delays. Consequently, many haulage companies suspended their business until completing the full
understanding of the new trade rules. Furthermore, truck drivers started to reject UK businesses for
shipping goods to the EU to avoid the border long delays or denied access.

That would be the logical reason why around 50% of lorries returning to mainland Europe from the UK
for having empty return loads while it was around only 18% pre-Brexit as previously mentioned in sub-
section (4.2.2.4.). More rejection for the UK businesses has pushed many hauliers to raise the haulage
costs for moving goods from mainland Europe to the UK and accept the risk of returning with an empty
load.

The rejection of the UK shipping businesses, the delays for shipments at borders, and the raised
transport rates for the UK might have disrupted the activities of logistics and supply chain in the UK in
many ways. The UK business might have faced or even still facing issues like shortage in EU supplies,
higher logistics costs that affect the viability of the businesses financially, and uncertainty towards the
business sustainable performance as a whole given the grey areas of many processes in the supply
chains.
5

4
Level of Agreement

3
Very High High Level Moderate
Level High Level Moderate
2 Level Level Low Level

1
The Survey Respondents The Public Sector Sub-Group

The claims about that freight forwards avoided the UK businesses post-Brexit.

The claims about that rates for freight transport to the UK were raised because of empty return loads post-
Brexit.
The claims about that the UK businesses opted to suspend trade with EU customers because of and increased
costs post-Brexit delays.

Figure 33: The claimed disruptions resulted from the post-Brexit excessive administrative issues. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 33 indicate that the respondents in general and the public sector sub-group have differing levels
of agreement with what was reported in the press and was mentioned in sub-section (4.2.2.2.). While
the survey respondents, in general, seem to confirm that the initial hypothesis is correct, the public

56
sector sub-group seem to be having a different side of view.

It is worth mentioning that there might be a potential bias in the responses from the public sector sub-
group since that the claimed disruptions were resulted -in one way or another- from public sector’s
regulations or organizations.

The first suggested solution by this study to mitigate the disruptions discussed in this sub-section is the
investment in the ‘SMART Border’. Such a solution might positively contribute to resolving the border
delays due to the controls and checks. Therefore, the UK government and mainland Europe neighbours
where trade flows for UK-EU take place should invest in the SMART border technology.

Figure 34: How the SMART Border concept works. Source: (Hawkes, 2019)

Figure 34 illustrates how the ‘SMART Border’ works. The technology is based on 3 main principles. First,
anticipating customs formalities before arriving at the port/border using barcode of customs declaration
for hauliers. Second, identification of the lorries and barcodes of the customs declaration of the carried
cargo. Third, automation of notifications of passage to customs officials to prevent lorries delays (Port

57
Boulogne Calais, 2020). Appendix E indicates how this technology is being used for managing lorries flow
at the French borders.

The second suggested solution is to invest in hiring more customs agents who have experience with
non-EU overseas imports/exports by the involved businesses and freight transport firms. One obvious
limitation for that solution is that it would need an extra amount of investment and recruitment which
represent challenges, especially for medium and small size firms.

The third suggested solution is the establishment of a subsidiary, warehouse, or depot inside the EU by
the UK-based businesses for serving their EU customers. The clear limitation is that small and even
medium businesses might not be able to maintain the business running financially viable in case of extra
costs of another continental branch been added to the capital and operation costs.

5
Level of Liklihood

3
High Level High Level
2

1
The Survey Respondents

The solution of investing in hiring more customs agents.

The solution of the establishment of subsidiaries and branches in the EU for the UK businesses.

Figure 35: The suggested solutions to mitigate the post-Brexit disruptions that were resulted from the excessive administrative
issues. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 35 shows that the survey respondents have provided the same level of likelihood (High) that the
second and third proposed solutions could help in resolving the experienced logistics and supply chain
disruptions discussed in this sub-section.

5.2.3. Analysis of causalities for the post-Brexit disruptions that were resulted from the new tariff regime

In sub-section (4.2.4.), several post-Brexit distributions for the activities of logistics and supply chain in
the UK were reported. The reported disruptions post-Brexit that were related to the new tariff regime
include that many firms of those who use the UK as a distribution centre for the re-exporting trade
products have to suspend exporting, longer import times for the ‘just-in-time’ industries’ supplies,
increased rated for shipping goods and parcels between EU-UK, and EU hauliers opted to avoid the UK
businesses.

Brexit meant that the EU and the UK have to agree on how the trade should be operated between both
of them. As a result, the UK-EU agreed on the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) as explained in
sub-section (2.6.9.). Despite agreeing on a free trade deal that guarantees zero-tariffs and zero-quotas
on all trade between UK-EU, but to be qualified to such treatment it has to be decided by and meets the
‘Rules of Origin’. Consequently, the traders became obliged to provide the certificate of origin (CO) for
each product to prove the percentage of how much of the product’s value originated outside the EU or

58
the UK.

The process of analyzing and approving the origin percentage has been approved to be very complex
and time-consuming. As a result, the industries that depend on ‘just-in-time’ strategies such as the cars
industry will suffer from longer import times for its supplies and that shall disrupt the production.
Another result will be that the companies that use the UK as a distribution centre to Europe will have to
suspend exporting since the re-exporting products might be subject to tariff and that shall make the
business financially unviable.

5
Level of Agreement

3
High Level High Level
2

1
The Survey Respondents
The claims about that ‘Rules of Origin’ caused issues for UK businesses that depend on the re-exporting
trade post-Brexit.
The claims about that the rates for the shipments between EU-UK given have been raised because of post-
Brexit tariff regime new rules.
Figure 36: The claimed disruptions resulted from the new tariff regime post-Brexit. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 36 shows that the respondents, in general, have a high level of agreement with what was
reported in the press: Freight and logistics companies decided to increase transportation rates for
shipping goods and parcels between EU-UK to recoup the extra-large investments to adjust the systems,
solutions, and processes resourcing to be able to operate as per the post-Brexit tariff regime rules.
(Leonardi, 2021) argued that the net profit margin percentage in the logistics sector is around only 5%.
As a result, the logistics companies would have a very limited space to maneuver and keep the business
financially viable. Consequently, most of the extra investments or costs shall be levied on the final
customers in a form of raised shipping rates as reported.

Figure 36 indicates that the survey respondents in general are in line with the existing literature when it
comes to the ‘Rules of Origin’ impact on supply chains. In sub-section (2.7.3.), it was shown that the
hypothesis of (Manners-Bell, 2019) would need to be checked, believing that the ‘Rules of Origin’ would
be a complicated process and shall affect any importer and exporter in the UK and that would affect
supply chains. The results show a similar view where many supply chains were reportedly disrupted
especially due to the potential tariffs that are subject to the ‘Rules of Origin’ as mentioned in sub-
section (4.2.4.). It is noticeable in Figure 36 that despite the generally high level of agreement among
the respondents in general, the purchasing sub-group has not confirmed the mentioned claims
regarding the ‘Rules of Origin’ disruptions to supply chains post-Brexit.

On the other hand, Brexit meant that there are new UK tax system changes where the British VAT
applies to all acquisitions from the EU. Furthermore, the EU retailers post-Brexit have to register for the
UK VAT to be able to send deliveries to the UK and that increases the operating and administrative costs
to their businesses. Consequently, several EU-based retailers had to freeze or even permanently stop

59
and close business with the British consumers.
Post-Brexit, EU hauliers have to provide financial guarantees (T1) to cover the VAT upon arrival to the
UK. Such a new requirement is considered to be tens of thousands of British pounds and that represents
a huge financial burden on the freight companies. Consequently, many EU hauliers began rejecting UK
business for avoiding the mentioned financial burden. Such shortage in shipping services shall raise the
transport rates in general which affects businesses financially.

There is a kind of consensus between the press stories, survey results, and the existing literature about
the impact of VAT on logistics and supply chain activities. (Arends et al., 2020) indicated that Brexit will
impact the UK-based supply chains through the new taxation system registrations and formalities.
Furthermore, the authors concluded that such a situation will represent an increased burden on
businesses and will cause delays. This hypothesis was confirmed with the survey results according to
Figure 36.

The first suggested solution by this study to mitigate the disruptions discussed in this sub-section is to
opt for a greater localization for the UK-based businesses' supply chains. The solution shall help in
avoiding the need of applying the ‘Rules of Origin’ since the final products and goods shall be already
mostly manufactured from EU or UK originated materials.

The second suggested solution is the greater use of the bonded warehouses concept by businesses that
depend on the re-exporting trade in the UK. A ‘Bonded Warehouse’ is a warehouse where cargo that
would ideally be subject to export or excise tariffs may be stored, processed, or submit to further
manufacturing, without the payment of duty (Johnston Logistics, 2020).

The third suggested solution is to opt for greater usage of doing business between EU-UK according to
the (DDP) INCOTERMS. As per the Incoterm DDP, the seller delivers the goods, at the buyer´s premises
in the country of destination and any import tax and in particular VAT, are covered by the seller unless
the parties agree otherwise in the contract of sale (International Contracts, 2021).
5

4
Level of Likelihood

3
High Level High Level
2 Moderate Level

1
The Survey Respondents
The solution of opting to greater localization of the UK-based businesses' supply chains.

The solution of greater usage of the bonded warehouses concept by the UK-based businesses.

The solution of opting to greater usage of doing business between EU-UK according to the Delivered Duty
Paid (DDP) incoterms.

Figure 37: The proposed solutions to resolve the logistics and supply chain disruptions resulted from the post-Brexit tariff regime.
Source (Own Survey, 2021)

60
Figure 37 illustrates that the participants in general have high levels of expectations for the success of
the first and the second proposed solutions in this sub-section. Meanwhile, the survey respondents have
a lower level of confidence (Moderate) regarding the DDP incoterms solution’s success odds. It might be
that the respondents have put into account the limitations of using the DDP incoterms for the sellers.
Many businesses might see potential financial risk along the supply chain where they are responsible for
any additional costs under such incoterms.

5.2.4. Analysis of causalities for the disruptions that were resulted from the re-direction of freight post-
Brexit

In sub-section (4.2.3.), several post-Brexit distributions for the activities of logistics and supply chain in
the UK were reported. The reported disruptions post-Brexit that are related to the re-direction of freight
post-Brexit include the action of the Irish Sea operators and ferries companies cancelling a number of
their operations between ROI and the UK ports because of the dramatic fall of 60% in freight volume on
these routes. Another issue that was experienced is when many hauliers who booked into the new
direct routes between the French ports and the Irish island have claimed that their bookings are not
being honoured.

As previously explained in sub-section (5.3.2.3.), Brexit has resulted in more checks and more
unprecedented delays when it comes to the transit or cross-border trade between EU-UK.
Consequently, the Irish and the EU hauliers decided to stay under the umbrella of the European Single
Market and take the advantage of the frictionless trade system while moving goods between mainland
Europe and the Irish island. As a result, avoiding the UK land-bridge route and use the new alternative
direct sea route was the obvious option to avoid the delays and uncertainty.

The demand for booking the new ferries using the new direct routes was increasing at a high rate,
therefore, the Irish Sea operators increased the number of services on these routes on the expanse of
reducing or even cancelling their operations and move their ferries from the UK land-bridge route like
those ferries that used to work between Dunkirk-Dover and ferries operating between Holyhead-Dublin.
The high demand for the new services caused several logistic issues where the goods hauliers have seen
their bookings not to be honoured. The reasoning was that the Irish Sea operators had to prioritize
moving the medical supplies over the businesses’ goods, especially during the pandemic time.
From a logistics perspective, new routes in service normally involve inadequate service operational
capacity, at least during the early stages of services’ implementation, till the operators be able to offer
extra number of ferries for meeting that unplanned demand. Therefore, disruptions to logistics and
supply chains for the freight flow is inevitable.

The dramatic fall of freight volumes that using the UK land-bridge post-Brexit has meant disruptions for
the Welsh ports. The Welsh ports especially Holyhead port and Fishguard port used to depend on the
revenue from ferries moving between Wales in the UK and Dublin or Rosslare in ROI. Avoiding the UK
land-bridge meant that these ports had to face substantial falls in vessels calls which as a result lead to
income disruptions.

Figure 38 shows that the survey respondents in general have a level of agreement (High) that because of
post-Brexit border delays, hauliers and shipping companies started to explore and use new routes to
avoid the UK land-bridge for moving goods from mainland Europe to ROI. Such a level of agreement
confirms the hypothesis that was reported by the presentation of the press in sub-section (4.2.3.).

61
 5

4
Level of Agreement

High Level
2

1
The Survey Respondents

The claims about that many hauliers started to avoid the UK land-bridge and favoured the new direct routes
post-Brexit to avoid delays and the uncertainty.

Figure 38: The claimed reasons for why many hauliers opted to avoid the UK land-bridge post-Brexit.
Source (Own Survey, 2021)

The study results contradict the existing literature regarding the impact of Brexit on the Welsh ports the
link UK-ROI. (Potter and Beresford, 2017) argued that demand for ports as logistics facilities often
depends on two factors, one of these factors is the decision from stakeholders about which transport
mode to use for these traded goods. (Potter and Beresford, 2017) predicted that Brexit shall cause more
traffic flow through Welsh ports. However, the Welsh ports faced a large decrease in freight movements
as previously mentioned in sub-section (4.2.3.) because of Brexit.

On the other hand, the study results agreed with (Potter and Beresford, 2017) prediction about the
potential delays into the overall transportation process in the Welsh ports post-Brexit, and how this
could affect the port choice decision by supply chain and logistics managers.

5
Evaluation of Cost-differance

2
Similar Cost
Much Higher Cost
1
The Survey Respondents The Maritime Logistics Sector Sub-Group

The cost-difference between using the UK land-bridge and the new direct routes post-Brexit.

Figure 39: Evaluation of the cost-difference between using the UK land-bridge and the new direct routes post-Brexit.
Source (Own Survey, 2021)

62
Figure 39 demonstrates that the survey respondents in general have an evaluation of the cost-difference
(Similar Cost) between using the UK land-bridge and the new direct routes. Such evaluation contradicts
what is reported by the press that the new direct routes cost more. That reason might be that the
situation might have been changed from when the press has covered this story (January 2021) and when
the survey was conducted (July 2021). If the cost of the new direct routes would have been changed
from being (Higher) in January to be (Similar) in July, then that might mean that the solution could have
been a trend to the degree that made the shipping companies increase the number of its services in the
Irish Sea. Therefore, the trip costs could have become less than when they started, given the extra
provided capacity.

On the other hand, the maritime logistics sector sub-group -who might be the most qualified sub-group
to answer such a survey question- has an evaluation that contradicts the press coverage. The maritime
logistics sector sub-group suggests that using the UK land-bridge costs much more compared to the new
direct routes.

5
Level of Likelihood

3
High Level
2

Very Low Level

1
The Survey Respondents The Maritime Logistics Sector Sub-Group

The success chances of selecting the new direct routes rather than the UK land-bridge to resolve the post-Brexit
issues.

Figure 40: The solution of selecting the new direct routes rather than the UK land-bridge. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 40 shows that the survey respondents in general have a high level of optimism regarding the
chances of the solution of avoiding the UK land-bridge to resolve the post-Brexit delays issues. On
contrary, the maritime logistics sector sub-group has the lowest possible level of optimism (Very Low)
towards the odds of this solution.

The reasoning for that might be that the maritime logistics sector sub-group has put into account the
difference of journey time between the direct sea routes (18-24 hours) and the UK land-bridge route (15
hours) as Figure 41 indicates. Consequently, the maritime logistics sector sub-group might have thought
that using either of the two options would still cause delays. Using the UK land-bridge would cause
border delays while opting for the direct sea route would involve extra hours due to the distance
difference.

63
 Figure 41: The difference of journey time between the trade routes linking mainland Europe with the Republic of Ireland.
Source: CNBC (2021)

5.2.5. Analysis of causalities for the post-Brexit disruptions which resulted from the Northern
Ireland protocol
In sub-section (4.2.5.), several post-Brexit distributions for logistics and supply chain activities in NI were
reported. The reported disruptions post-Brexit that are related to the NI protocol include food supplies
shortage in NI, raised rates for goods transportation between GB-NI, suspension of supplies to NI by
many GB businesses, and cancellation of many NI orders by GB businesses.

The Brexit withdrawal agreement included the special protocol which keeps NI inside the EU Single
Market and makes NI to follow the EU regulations when it comes to trade despite being part of the UK.

The trade between NI-GB became subject to the post-Brexit rules without the frictionless trade system
and faced the same issues and disruptions. Furthermore, the traders on both sides NI-GB now need to
trade as per new rules that involve extra administrative work and more red tape. The GB being a third
country, as a result of Brexit, means that for any animal or plant goods, the GB supplies which are being
shipped to NI have to follow and match the EU health and safety standards. Therefore, more border
checks need to be done before being allowed to cross the border. The result of the border checks might
be a denied access or consignments being rejected.

As explained in sub-section (4.2.5.1.), many supply chains in NI depend on the groupage transport
services to impost supplies from GB. As a result, the groupage transport service might have been
disrupted by the new health and safety checks at borders where multiple checks will be needed for each
lorry and that cause disruptive delays. Consequently, many GB hauliers opted to reject groupage food

64
loads from GB to NI, therefore, the food supply chains have been disrupted in NI and as reported in this
study results, many supermarkets had experienced empty shelves post-Brexit.

5
Level of Agreement/Likelihood

3 High Level
High Level
High Level
2

1
The Survey Respondents
The claims about that the issues of the freight groupage services in NI post-Brexit have caused supply chain
disruptions.
The claims about that many NI businesses had to suspend or cut trade ties with GB suppliers post-Brexit.

The likely negative impact of the EU Health and Safety Standards certificates on NI Supply chains.

Figure 42: The logistics and supply chain disruptions in NI post-Brexit. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 42 shows that the survey respondents have confirmed the press claims that were mentioned in
sub-section (4.2.5.) regarding the logistics and supply chain disruptions in NI due to the Northern Ireland
protocol post-Brexit.

The existing literature agrees with the reported press stories and the survey results regarding the
disruption in logistics and supply chains in NI post-Brexit. In sub-section (2.7.7.), it was argued by
(McFarlane et al., 2018) that the food supply chain, trade, and access within NI will suffer from
destabilizing consequences due to Brexit. (McFarlane et al., 2018) showed significant concerns towards
the idea of creating a border between NI and GB where the checks for goods and documents to fulfil the
EU requirements would add costs for businesses in NI.

Similarly, Figure 42 indicates that the survey participants have a high level of concern towards the
negative impact of the EU health and safety standards required certificates on the activities of logistics
and supply chain in NI.

The GB suppliers and retailers have also been affected by the delays, bans, EU health and safety
standards, and the extra costs associated with the new administrative burden. As a result, they decided
to halt sales to NI customers.

Lossing of GB suppliers would have forced NI businesses to face goods shortage, potential loss of
businesses’ customers, loss of trading longstanding relationships, the need to re-engineer the NI supply
chains, and the need to establish new logistics networks. Having such new variables in the NI businesses
formulas might involve new supply chain risks and businesses’ running costs. The result might be that
many businesses become financially unviable.

65
Mitigating such mentioned disruption in NI might needs that the two main two points to be considered
are the check delays at borders and the differences or variations between the EU health and safety
standards and the GB’s ones.

The first suggested solution by this study to mitigate these disruptions was discussed earlier in sub-
section (5.3.2.5.) about the ‘SMART Border’. Such a solution should help in reducing the needed
documents and goods’ checks at the Irish Sea borders.

The second recommended solution is that the UK government try to agree on a kind of mutual
recognition of health and safety standards for traded goods with the EU. The obvious example of such a
solution is what is known as the Swiss modal where Switzerland has an agreement with the EU.

Switzerland dodges that kind of checks since that the government of Switzerland aligns their rules on
plant and animal health with the EU rules. When the bloc modifies its regulations, the government of
Switzerland adjusts its rules to guarantee a continued alignment and that would remove the technical
barriers of trade between the bloc and Switzerland (European Commission, 2021e).

Such a solution shall eliminate the need for the Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks at the border for
GB goods which reduce the delays as much as possible. Furthermore, the EU bans on many GB products
shall be lifted as a result. The clear limitation for such a solution is that the Brexit advocates or the
current UK government were targeting retaining UK’s national sovereignty, while the proposed solution
will require that the UK governments to do some concessions to follow the EU standards.

4
Level of Likelihood

3 Very High Level

1
The Survey Respondents

The suggested solution of agreeing on a kind of mutual recognition of health and safety standards for traded
goods with the EU.

Figure 43: The proposed solution of the UK applying a similar model to the Swiss model for the health and safety standards
issue. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 43 indicates that the survey respondents have very high expectations that such a solution shall
help in resolving the issues related to the EU health and safety standards requirements in NI.

5.2.6. Analysis of causalities for the disruptions that were experienced by the Scottish fishing and seafood
industry post-Brexit

In sub-section (4.2.6.), several post-Brexit logistics and industry disruptions that were faced by the
Scottish fishing and seafood industry were reported. Those reported disruptions include consignment

66
delays, markets’ access denial, suspension of logistics services, consignments being rejected by buyers,
and restrictions on Scottish seafood exports.

Brexit meant that the UK has left the EU Single Market. Consequently, the exports of the Scottish fishing
and seafood industry to mainland Europe became subject to the post-Brexit rules without the
frictionless trade system and faced the same issues that were previously discussed in the sub-section
(5.3.2.).

The fishing and seafood exports are time-sensitive goods. As a result, any delays that prevent the
exports from arriving at its destination markets in a short suitable time then the consignments shall be
not suitable to human usage or to lose its quality and therefore not suitable to be traded.

Figure 44 illustrates that the survey respondents in general and the cold chain logistics sub-group
confirmed the press claims mentioned in the sub-section (4.2.6.). The respondents shared a very high
level of agreement towards the claims that suggest that the extra needed time for securing health
certificates has caused disruptions for the Scottish seafood exports to the EU post-Brexit. Furthermore,
high and very high levels of agreement were spotted towards the claims that suggest that the groupage
transportation service issues have caused disruptions for the Scottish seafood exports to the EU post-
Brexit.

5
Level of Agreement/Likelihood

3
Very High High Level Very High High Level
Level High Level Level High Level
2

1
The Survey Respondents The Cold Chain Logistics Sector Sub-Group
The claims about that the time needed to secure health certificates for Scottish seafood consignments post-Brexit
has caused disruptions.
The likely negative impact of groupage transportation service disruption on the Scottish traded perishable goods
post-Brexit.
The likely negative impact of the EU Health and Safety Standards certificates on Scottish supply chains.

Figure 44: The disruptions faced by the Scottish seafood industry post-Brexit. Source (Own Survey, 2021)

The existing literature agrees with the reported press stories and the survey results regarding the
disruption in logistics and supply chains for the Scottish seafood industry post-Brexit. In sub-section
(2.7.12.), it was argued by (Forse et al., 2019) that the loss of frictionless trade system post-Brexit shall
impact the perishable goods trade by causing delays while performing the border checks. (Forse et al.,
2019) warned of the increased lead times will lead to the reduction of the products’ quality and
therefore the demand and value of the Scottish seafood products.

67
Similarly, Figure 44 indicates that the survey respondents in general, and the cold chain logistics sub-
group have either high or very high levels of concern towards the negative impact of the EU health and
safety standards required certificates on the flow of the Scottish perishable goods post-Brexit.

4
Level of Likelihood

Moderate Level High Level Moderate Level

2 Moderate Level

1
The Survey Respondents The Cold Chain Logistics Sector Sub-Group
The suggested solution of exploring new near markets like Denmark to replace France and Spain markets for
exporting the Scottish seafood products.
The solution of requesting a six-month or longer grace period for the Scottish fish exports by the industry.

Figure 45: The proposed solutions for the Scottish seafood industry to resolve issues faced post-Brexit.
Source (Own Survey, 2021)

Figure 45 indicates the levels of likelihoods towards success chances of two solutions that were
proposed to the survey respondents. The respondents in general and the cold chain logistics sub-groups
did not seem to be much convinced with the two proposed solutions. One solution was about exploring
new markets for the Scottish seafood products and the other one was about that the UK government
agreeing on a trade grace period with the EU for the Scottish seafood products. Neither of both
solutions seemed to be convincing.

Therefore, this study opted to suggest two new different solutions to mitigate the disruptions discussed
in this sub-section.

The first proposed solution is that the industry associations put pressure on policymakers and the UK
governments to negotiate a special fast-tracked scheme with the EU. Such arrangement should
guarantee a smooth passage for perishable seafood consignments across the English Channel and other
related logistics facilities. The scheme should reduce the administrative burden and the border check
delays to close rates to that which were existed pre-Brexit.

The clear limitation for such a solution is that negotiating such a scheme shall need that both UK and the
EU to give away some concessions. Therefore, it would not be easy to convince the policymakers or the
UK government to do so.

That can be avoided only by making this solution to be as a collective general request from different
multiple industries that share the same issue of trading time-sensitive consignments through their
respective industry associations. Organizations such as the Scottish Seafood Association, (BMPA), (NFU),
and (NPA) can represent a fair and strong case to justify such an arrangement that protect their
industries.

68
The second proposed solution by this study is that the fishing and seafood industry’s stakeholders ask
the UK government to reach a deal for a new agreement regarding veterinary regulation with the EU.

Such agreement is like what Norway has already with the EU. The Norwegian model guarantees that
Norway’s local veterinary rules are coordinated with the EU’s ones. The veterinary regulations cover all
seafood production standards such as input products, fish welfare, and fish health. That modal
guarantees the free-movement of all fishing, seafood products, and live-fish within the EEA. The free
movement of such goods means it shall be done with no veterinary border controls between Norway
and the EU (Government of Norway, 2018).

The solution would provide a frictionless trade for the fishing and seafood exports to the EU. It will
contribute to lifting the EU bans on the live mussels and other shellfish caught in most of the UK's
waters. The main obstacle for such a solution is that it would need the UK to act like Norway where the
latter acting as the external border of the EU with the non-EU countries. That might contradict or
conflict with future trade deals between the British government and the non-EU countries.

69
6. CONCLUSION
6.1. Introduction
That chapter is the concluding one in this dissertation. The chapter summarizes the whole analysis for
the identification of the impacts on logistics and supply chain activities in the UK that were resulted
from Brexit. Chapter 6 depicts the summarized findings of the research project. The summarized
findings are designed to match the research’s objectives. Furthermore, based on the findings, chapter 6
highlights the limitations of the survey results, the recommendations of the study to businesses in the
UK, and provides future research implications.

6.2. Findings’ Summary

This study aimed for identifying part of the Brexit impacts on the activities of logistics and supply chain
in the UK and to provide recommendations that might help in mitigating the reported wider supply
chain effects. It was found that uncertainty about the future of the trading rules post-Brexit has caused
reported disruptions such as the phenomena of pre-Brexit stockpiling, lorries queues in Calais and Kent
prior to the deadline of the Brexit transition period, congestion at the British ports, shipments stuck in
the UK ports warehouses, and the UK’s ports calls have been skipped by the shipping lines.
Consequently, there was a halt of production in many UK-based plants. Also, many UK retailers and
suppliers have struggled to meet the customers’ demand.

Brexit meant an imposing of full controls and checks at borders on the UK imports by the EU. That has
caused a new excessive administrative burden for trade. As a result, many disruptions were reported
such as an unprecedented delay at borders between EU-UK, denied entry for lorries at EU borders post-
Brexit, traffic restrictions for lorries at Kent, rejection of many UK businesses for shipping goods to the
EU, and stoppage of haulage to the EU by many UK logistics operators.
Subsequently, there were relocation processes of production for some UK-based industries, UK livestock
exports almost stopped, and many UK retailers had to suspend business with their EU customers.
Moreover, costs for haulage between EU-UK have been raised.

Brexit meant that the UK to quit the European Single Market and the end of the frictionless trade system
for the EU-UK trade and that caused many changes. Many European hauliers and Irish traders started to
bypass and avoid the UK land-bridge for moving cargo between EU-ROI and there were ferries capacity
issues in the new direct routes between EU-ROI.
Consequently, the Welsh ports, especially Holyhead and Fishguard ports faced a dramatic fall in freight
volumes post-Brexit. Additionally, many goods’ hauliers have seen their bookings for using the new
direct routes not to be honored.

It turned out that the issues of ‘Rules of Origin’ and the new changes in the UK VAT system post-Brexit
have caused many disruptions. Re-exporting products in the UK distribution centres became subject to
potential tariffs. Many EU retailers had to suspend the UK deliveries for a while post-Brexit. Many
logistics companies had to make the extra investment to adjust their systems and processes. EU hauliers
had to pay financial guarantees to operate in the UK.
As a result, there were disruptions for the re-exporting trade in the UK, longer import times for the ‘Just-
in-Time’ industries in the UK, and many EU hauliers opted to avoid the UK businesses.

70
It was found that the Northern Ireland Protocol has caused many reported disruptions in NI. There were
disruptions for the groupage transport service between GB-NI, check delays at the NI border for the GB
goods, and there were bans were imposed by the EU on many GB products such as plants and soil.
Subsequently, there were food supplies shortages in NI supermarkets, raised rates for shipping goods
between GB-NI, many GB retailers and suppliers had to suspend businesses with their NI clients, and
many GB imports orders to the NI had to de cancelled.

Brexit meant that the Scottish seafood industry has to face many disruptions. Perishable seafood
consignments have faced delays for border checks. A health certificate for each fishing or seafood
consignment became a condition. IT systems issues were faced at borders. Disruptions for the groupage
transport service between EU-Scotland were excited. Also, the EU had to place indefinite restrictions on
fishermen from the UK selling live bivalve molluscs to the EU Member States.
Consequently, many Scottish seafood exports have been rejected by the EU importers. There was a
needed extra time and additional costs for moving seafood from Scotland to markets in mainland
Europe post-Brexit. Moreover, there was a suspension of logistics services by major logistics operators in
Scotland.

This study has proposed different solutions to mitigate the previously discussed disruptions for the
activities of logistics and supply chain in the UK.

The first solution is the investment in the ‘SMART Border’ technology The potential probable effects of
such solution is that it might reduce the needed time and delays for performing the customs checks and
formalities at borders for the goods trade flows between UK-EU.

This study has suggested investing in hiring more customs agents by the involved businesses and freight
transport firms. The hopeful effect of that solution is that it might help in eliminating the confusion and
the incomplete understanding of trading rules post-Brexit. Moreover, it might help in easing the
administrative burden on the traders and logistics operators for shipping cargo between UK-EU.

Another solution is the establishment of a subsidiary, warehouse, or depot in the EU by the UK-based
businesses for serving their EU customers. That would help to avoid the need of moving goods from
outside the umbrella of the EU Single Market and avoiding the excessive administrative burden to move
goods from the UK to the EU post-Brexit.

One more recommended solution is to apply the ‘Swiss Model’ where that the UK government try to
agree on a kind of mutual recognition of health and safety standards for traded goods with the EU. That
might in eliminating the need for the (SPS) checks at the border for GB goods, which reduces the delays
as much as possible. Furthermore, it would assist in lifting the EU bans on many GB products imports
such as plants and soil.

The study has also proposed a solution where that the UK government to negotiate a special fast-
tracked scheme with the EU for the time-sensitive and perishable products. That solution might
guarantee a smooth passage for perishable seafood consignments across the English Channel to the EU
markets. Moreover, the solution should help to minimize the administrative load and the border check
delays to close rates to that which were existed pre-Brexit.

The last suggested solution by this study is to apply the ‘Norwegian Model’ where that the UK
government to agree on a new agreement for veterinary regulation with the EU. That might provide a

71
frictionless trade system for the fishing and seafood exports to the EU. Furthermore, that solution would
Help to lift the EU bans on importing many fishing products caught in most of the UK's waters.

6.3. Conclusions
“Of course there are teething problems in lots of areas and that’s inevitable because this is a big
change”. That was the response of Boris Johnson, the United Kingdom current PM, when the press
confronted him with the Scottish seafood industry’s disruptions post-Brexit (Schomberg, 2021).

The findings might suggest that many of the Brexit impacts on logistics and supply chains are far from
being just ‘Teething Problems’ as was suggested. It was reported by the study results and confirmed by
the survey respondents that many changes have permanent and long term impacts on industries such as
the Scottish seafood industry had to explore new markets such as Denmark, businesses strategies like
the NI supply chains new procurement sources, businesses’ operations’ location like the businesses that
had to move to the EU from the UK, and logistics facilities such as the Welsh ports that suffered from
the re-direction of freight seeking to avoid the UK land-bridge route post-Brexit. Only future research on
this topic shall confirm conclusively whether a number of these disruptions were just teething problems
or not.

The dismantling of the economic blocs or the event of leaving a trading bloc by a Member State shall
expose logistics and supply chain activities to different supply chain risks that, in the most extreme
cases, might results in businesses become financially unviable or face permanent closures.

6.4. Limitations of the survey results

The survey results might have few limitations. Firstly, the study is concerned about the Brexit
disruptions that were experienced during the first quarter of 2021 (January- End of April). Meanwhile,
the survey was performed during July 2021. The responses and therefore the results might not perfectly
reflect the impacts of the subject period (First quarter of 2021).

Secondly, the inevitable existence of response bias in any survey is another limitation. For instance, the
responses of the public sector sub-group might have a potential bias since that the asked questions
were mostly about disruptions that were mostly resulted -in one way or another- from public sector’s
regulations and organizations.

Thirdly, the survey sample has not included enough percentage of respondents to represent the
shipping operative (2%) sub-groups. On the other hand, the survey sample is dominated by the
academic (24%) and the management (72%) sub-groups. As a result, the survey responses and results
might be missing the much-valued input of sub-groups like the trucks’ drivers. Such limitation might
impact the representativity of the survey.

6.5. Recommendations
The vulnerable or the already-affected businesses by the political risks like Brexit have to begin with
attempting to comprehend the causes of supply chain disruptions that the business experiences post-
Brexit. To do so, (Manners-Bell, 2019) argued that the first step must be that the business’s
management does a risk analysis.

For supply chain risks like Brexit, the risks have a nature of being highly complex, involving the
interaction of environmental, technological, political, economic, and human factors. Therefore, it would

72
be not easy to identify the reasons behind an event that leads to supply chain disruption.

(Manners-Bell, 2019) indicated that the most suitable way to analyse such risks is to follow what has
been known as the Swiss Cheese model of accident causation. The model is relevant to the logistics and
supply chain activities at many levels where it involves a more holistic analysis that helps to understand
the risks and threats along the supply chains.

Following the risk analysis and the identification of the risks process, businesses have to start
engineering supply chains resilience. Resilience ought to be designed into a supply chain through a
better understanding of vulnerabilities and addressing these vulnerabilities.

As previously discussed earlier in this study, post-Brexit, the UK businesses might need to make strategic
and financial decisions depending on the kind of experienced disruptions.

Time and resources might need to be invested by businesses for staff-training courses and programs
that are related to the post-Brexit administrative logistics and trading procedures, other businesses
might need to do more than that by recruiting dedicated overseas customs experts who shall assist to
ease the logistics operations.

Businesses might opt for re-engineering their supply chains. The analysis for the flow of the physical
supplies and goods post-Brexit along the supply chain might need that the businesses’ planners to re-
design their businesses’ networks to be more resilient. For instance, the Northern Irish businesses might
start to think about onshoring or nearshoring their supply chains by replacing the GB suppliers with local
or EU ones.

Many businesses might need to go further and have to move to the EU or invest in establishing an EU
subsidiary. Such strategic decisions might be needed to protect the subject business from a potential
permanent closure in the most extreme cases.

Many industries through their unions and associations have to get united together to put political
pressure on policymakers in the UK to legalise needed schemes such as industries supporting financial
schemes. Industries unions and associations might also need the relevant policymakers to convince the
UK government to negotiate new needed agreements with the EU like the Swiss and the Norwegian
models that were previously discussed in this study.

Such actions might help in the end in creating the supply chains’ resilience which is fundamentally
needed after events Brexit that has involved exiting the European Single Market and the European
Customs Union.

6.6. Future research

This study focus was only on the logistics and supply chain disruptions that were experienced in the UK
post-Brexit for a limited period covering the first quarter of 2021. Therefore, future research shall try to
cover the disruptions experienced in the later time periods such as the second and the third quarters of
2021.

73
During mid-March 2021, the UK authorities have opted to postpone the checks on the EU imports from
by six months where the introduction of that phase has been postponed until January 2022 because of
the infrastructure of the border posts shall not be complete in time as was planned before (Partridge,
2021). Furthermore, many agreed grace periods are planned to end by October 2021 and March 2022.
This study has only covered the Brexit impacts on logistics and supply chains activities while the
restrictions were only imposed on the UK exports by the EU. Therefore, future research should explore
the Brexit disruptions after the UK impose the restrictions on the EU imposts in January 2022 to cover
the whole picture when the border controls are being imposed in both ways between EU-UK.

74
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 APPENDICES
Appendix A: List of the covered news stories and the press articles.

Title Date Source

1. Ikea latest firm to suffer shortages and delays due to clogged UK ports 12/12/2020 The Guardian
2. Any port in a perfect storm: UK container trade is grinding to a halt 13/12/2020 The Guardian
3. Hornby pauses non-UK toy orders because of Brexit 16/12/2020 The Guardian
4. UK firms struggling to import as end of Brexit transition period looms 16/12/2020 The Guardian
5. Will Brexit cause disruption in Britain’s ports? 16/12/2020 The Economist
6. Priority Freight teams up with Jota to provide post-Brexit UK-EU air bridge 17/12/2020 The Loadstar
7. Shipping and the UK Ports – a tale of dire straits? 17/12/2020 Transport Intelligence
8. DPD and Parcel Motel suspend Northern Ireland operations due to Brexit 20/12/2020 Belfast Telegraph
9. Road freight conditions highly unpredictable across English Channel 21/12/2020 Transport Intelligence
10. Brexit poses grave risks to UK health and care sector, report finds 22/12/2020 The Guardian
11. Goods arriving in NI from GB that fail to pass Brexit checks ‘will be sent back’ 22/12/2020 Belfast Telegraph
12. ACS announces UK-EU air bridge is ready for take-off as Brexit transition ends 22/12/2020 The Loadstar
13. Brexit trade deal will lessen, but not kill, the economic pain 24/12/2020 Reuters
14. How will the EU-British trade deal change ties? 26/12/2020 Reuters
15. PM sold out fish in Brexit trade deal, fishermen say 26/12/2020 Reuters
16. French truckers brace for disruption as Britain restores hard border with Europe 30/12/2020 Reuters
17. Aldi to boost annual spending on UK-made food and drink by £3.5bn 30/12/2020 The Guardian
18. Brexit is far from done – this deal is no ‘game, set and match' 30/12/2020 The Guardian
19. British businesses on preparing for Brexit: 'It’s been a bit of a debacle' 31/12/2020 The Guardian
20. Passports and permits: what are the biggest changes to expect after Brexit? 31/12/2020 The Guardian
21. Sector by sector: are British firms ready for post-Brexit trade? 31/12/2020 The Guardian
22. In northern France, first trucks cross new customs border with UK 31/12/2020 Reuters
23. Britain braced for queues of up to 7,000 trucks as Brexit border change kicks in 31/12/2021 The Telegraph
24. Calais port boss: After Brexit, coronavirus is next challenge 01/01/2021 Reuters
25. Brexit trade deal places Europe back at centre of UK politics 01/01/2021 The Guardian
26. Adieu to the single market created by the UK 01/01/2021 BBC News
27. Come clean on logjams at British borders as new Brexit rules kick in, ministers told 02/01/2021 The Guardian
28. For Europe, the Brexit deal makes the best of a bad business 02/01/2021 The Economist
29. A border inside the UK brings Northern Ireland closer to the republic 02/01/2021 The Economist
30. Britain’s relationship with the EU will look like Switzerland’s 02/01/2021 The Economist
31. UK carmakers have three years to source local electric car batteries 03/01/2021 The Guardian
32. UK factory PMI hits three-year high in December - IHS Markit 04/01/2021 Reuters
33. Breakingviews - Brexit throws down electric gauntlet to UK cars 04/01/2021 Reuters
34. EU firms refuse UK deliveries over Brexit tax changes 04/01/2021 BBC News
35. First days of Brexit 05/01/2021 Transport Intelligence
36. Brexit forces retailers to localise Northern Ireland supply chains 05/01/2021 The Loadstar

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37. UK new car registrations in 2020 sink to 30-year low 06/01/2021 BBC News
38. UK car sector warns of Brexit costs as it pushes for investment 06/01/2021 Reuters
39. Northern Ireland facing food supply disruption over Brexit, MPs told 06/01/2021 The Guardian
40. Calm so far, but airbridges and extra capacity ready for the 'Brexit storm' 06/01/2021 The Loadstar
41. Brexit: 'Problems' in first week of post-deal GB-NI trade 06/01/2021 BBC News
42. Scottish seafood exports 'held up by post-Brexit rules' 06/01/2021 BBC News
43. What does Brexit mean for pet passports and travelling with my dog or cat? 06/01/2021 The Telegraph
44. Meat factories warn Covid absences could hit supplies 07/01/2021 BBC News
45. Brexit: Vets helping firms complete Irish Sea border forms 07/01/2021 BBC News
46. Brexit: Why are the shelves empty in some supermarkets? 07/01/2021 BBC News
47. Brexit: Lorry drivers handed £32,000 in fines since New Year's Day 07/01/2021 BBC News
48. John Lewis among UK firms scrapping overseas deliveries 07/01/2021 BBC News
49. Brexit: UK-Ireland lorry traffic at Holyhead port slumps 07/01/2021 BBC News
50. Ireland seeks its own ‘landbridge’ to continental EU 07/01/2021 Euractiv
51. Customers in Europe hit by post-Brexit charges when buying from UK 07/01/2021 The Guardian
52. UK retailers face tariffs for re-exporting goods to EU, trade body says 07/01/2021 Reuters
53. British fishermen have not escaped the Common Fisheries Policy 07/01/2021 The Economist
54. Brexit delivery issues: How Amazon, John Lewis, Dunelm and other companies have been 07/01/2021 The Telegraph
affected by Irish Sea border
55. Exporters raise warning over 'significant shortages and disruption' without post-Brexit 08/01/2021 The Telegraph
'pragmatism'
56. Were there hold-ups in first week after Brexit? 08/01/2021 BBC News
57. Food waste: 'I'll have to throw away £6,000-worth of milk' 08/01/2021 BBC News
58. Brexit: M&S temporarily cuts hundreds of products in NI 08/01/2021 BBC News
59. Brexit: The reality dawns 08/01/2021 BBC News
60. High number of trucks being stopped on UK-EU border, DFDS says 08/01/2021 Reuters
61. Exclusive: 'It's a catastrophe': Scottish fishermen halt exports due to Brexit red tape 08/01/2021 Reuters
62. Brexit delays and costs 'pushing Scottish seafood firms into crisis' 08/01/2021 The Guardian
63. 'I'm stuck here': lorry drivers in Calais begin to feel effects of Brexit 08/01/2021 The Guardian
64. Percy Pigs in Ireland hit by Brexit red tape as M&S warns of tariffs 08/01/2021 The Guardian
65. Airbus backs jet output target amid supplier concerns 08/01/2021 Reuters
66. Brexit and Covid blamed as Asia-UK shipping rates increase fourfold 08/01/2021 The Guardian
67. Firms halt deliveries from UK to EU over Brexit border problems 08/01/2021 The Guardian
68. Seafood bodies call for 'lighter touch' on exports 08/01/2021 BBC News
69. Johnson promised tariff-free trade – so why is Brexit reality so different? 08/01/2021 The Guardian
70. Percy Pigs the first casualties of Brexit red tape 08/01/2021 Belfast Telegraph
71. Northern Ireland-Britain supply chain at risk of collapse, hauliers warn 09/01/2021 Reuters
72. Scotland's seafood exporters dealt new post-Brexit blow 09/01/2021 Reuters
73. Brexit paperwork 'a nightmare' for small NI traders 09/01/2021 BBC News
74. Brexit: Can Welsh firms cash in on trading rules? 09/01/2021 BBC News
75. Baffling Brexit rules threaten export chaos, Gove is warned 10/01/2021 The Guardian
76. Online retailer Ocado warns of shortages as suppliers cut choice 10/01/2021 BBC News

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77. 'Welcome to Brexit': Dutch officials confiscate British truckers' sandwiches under new 11/01/2021 The Telegraph
import rules
78. Scottish exporters count cost of further EU delays 11/01/2021 BBC News
79. UK firms fear twin force of Covid plus Brexit will force them under 11/01/2021 The Guardian
80. DPD suspends its European Road Service 11/01/2021 Transport Intelligence
81. Hauliers using North to avoid State’s Brexit checks 11/01/2021 The Irish Times
82. Brexit: British hauliers pause transport of goods to EU and NI 11/01/2021 The Irish Times
83. Dutch officials seize ham sandwiches of drivers arriving from UK 11/01/2021 The Guardian
84. Brexit: Kirkella super trawler unable to fish since Brexit 11/01/2021 BBC News
85. Truckers ramp up rates as Brexit bites and customs chaos looms 11/01/2021 The Telegraph
86. Brexit disrupts cross-border e-commerce 12/01/2021 Transport Intelligence
87. Irish Sea Border: Mixed food loads pose problems for traders 12/01/2021 BBC News
88. 'We've lost 30 years': Brexit shatters supply chains for French fish hub 12/01/2021 Reuters
89. Over 70% of British imports arriving into Dublin Port clearing without delays 12/01/2021 The Irish Times
90. Portsmouth City Council to buy land for Brexit port customs checks 12/01/2021 BBC News
91. Brexit: Supermarkets call for action on NI food supplies 12/01/2021 BBC News
92. Ireland awarded over €1bn from EU fund to offset Brexit impact 12/01/2021 The Irish Times
93. Marks & Spencer to close Czech stores as Covid restrictions keep customers at bay 12/01/2021 Reuters
94. Brexit: Five surprising consequences 13/01/2021 BBC News
95. Brexit export EU costs a 'nasty shock' for small business owners 13/01/2021 BBC News
96. Post-Brexit demand for direct ferries causes capacity problems 13/01/2021 The Irish Times
97. Post-Brexit costs: British firms charging Irish customers more 13/01/2021 The Irish Times
98. Britain's ASOS expects 15-million-pound hit from Brexit tariffs 13/01/2021 Reuters
99. Scottish fishermen threaten to dump rotten shellfish outside British parliament 13/01/2021 Reuters
100. UK supermarkets seek urgent action on Northern Ireland supplies 13/01/2021 Reuters
101. Brexit: Supply problems for NI supermarkets being 'overcome' 13/01/2021 BBC News
102. Scottish seafood exports to EU delayed for further five days 13/01/2021 BBC News
103. Honda to close UK plant for four days owing to supply chain problems 13/01/2021 The Guardian
104. DHL Express sees strong start to year, Brexit challenges under control 13/01/2021 Reuters
105. If Brexit is 'done', then where's the dividend? 13/01/2021 The Guardian
106. Guest view: Dislocation will be 2021’s buzzword 13/01/2021 Reuters
107. Stena moves larger ship to French route as more firms seek to avoid Brexit checks 13/01/2021 The Irish Times
108. Brexit: 'My £50,000 shellfish lorry was delayed for 30 hours' 13/01/2021 BBC News
109. Post-Brexit food supply problems will get worse, MPs warned 13/01/2021 The Telegraph
110. Brexit problems halt some Scottish seafood exports to EU 14/01/2021 The Guardian
111. Irish Sea Border: Measures to ease mixed food loads to be announced 14/01/2021 BBC News
112. German freight giant DB Schenker pauses UK deliveries 14/01/2021 BBC News
113. Tesco hails record Christmas fuelled by online grocery surge 14/01/2021 The Guardian
114. Brexit: Dorset seafood exporter warns of 'end of the industry' 14/01/2021 BBC News
115. Tory MPs from fishing areas criticise government over Brexit red tape 14/01/2021 The Guardian
116. Brexit shellfish delays leave Scottish seafood rotting 15/01/2021 BBC News

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117. Rules of origin: Why are Percy Pigs a headache for M&S? 15/01/2021 BBC News
118. Brexit: 'Most difficult week I've had in this job in 20 years' 15/01/2021 BBC News
119. Scottish fishermen land fish in Denmark to avoid post-Brexit red tape 15/01/2021 Reuters
120. Criticism rains down on DB Schenker, but loss of EU-UK services may spread 15/01/2021 The Loadstar
121. Post-Brexit customs systems not fit for purpose, say meat exporters 15/01/2021 BBC News
122. Scottish fishermen 'sailing to Denmark to land catch' 15/01/2021 BBC News
123. Uncertainty for NI's steel industry as 'surprise' 25% tariff to be imposed on non-GB 15/01/2021 Belfast Telegraph
imports
124. Brexit: Dublin Port 'minefield' leaves trucks stranded 15/01/2021 BBC News
125. Britain’s immediate economic prospects are grim 16/01/2021 The Economist
126. Brexit delays Mojo magazine as cover CDs remain stranded in EU 16/01/2021 The Guardian
127. Brexit: Welsh seafood in 'grave state' over port delays 16/01/2021 BBC News
128. Brexit: Irish hauliers 'bypassing Welsh ports', say bosses 16/01/2021 BBC News
129. Brexit: GB package to NI had international customs label 17/01/2021 BBC News
130. Brexit: Welsh Government legal action over trade law 17/01/2021 BBC News
131. Shock Brexit charges are hurting us, say small British businesses 17/01/2021 The Guardian
132. Small seafood firm exports from Scotland to EU 'resume' 18/01/2021 BBC News
133. The Brexit rules may be late, but it's not rocket science, guys 18/01/2021 The Loadstar
134. AF-KLM-Martinair Cargo pledges not to pass on extra cost of Brexit air cargo security 18/01/2021 The Loadstar

135. 'Brexit carnage': shellfish trucks protest in London over export delays 18/01/2021 Reuters
136. Software data shows freight groups avoiding UK, prices rising 18/01/2021 Reuters
137. 'A multiple pile-up in the fog': wine agent's fury at Brexit red tape 18/01/2021 The Guardian
138. Brexit: Edwin Poots issues jelly and gravy shortage warning 18/01/2021 BBC News
139. Boris Johnson unveils £23 million compensation fund for fishing industry losses over 18/01/2021 The Telegraph
Brexit red tape
140. Superdry to use bonded warehouses to avoid post Brexit EU tariffs 19/01/2021 Reuters
141. Britain's largest fishing port sees 18% fall in catch after Brexit 19/01/2021 Reuters
142. One in five UK small businesses have halted EU exports, accountants say 19/01/2021 Reuters
143. Palletways the latest operator to suspend its UK-EU road services 19/01/2021 The Loadstar
144. Brexit: Paperwork 'horror' sparks anger from hauliers 19/01/2021 BBC News
145. Defra sets up £23m fund for UK seafood exporters hit by Brexit 19/01/2021 The Guardian
146. EU rubbishes Boris Johnson's claims that post-Brexit trade is running 'smoothly' 20/01/2021 The Telegraph
147. Brexit trade deal: What does it mean for fishing? 20/01/2021 BBC News
148. 'Absolute carnage': EU hauliers reject UK jobs over Brexit rules 20/01/2021 The Guardian
149. Brexit: 'My meat shipment is rotting in Rotterdam' 20/01/2021 BBC News
150. Organic food shipping system is a 'nightmare' post-Brexit 20/01/2021 BBC News
151. Digital simulation predicts 20-day wait in 70,000-truck queue to Dover 20/01/2021 The Loadstar
152. Brexit: NI hauliers raise concerns over 'competence' of new customs agents 20/01/2021 BBC News
153. Furious Kent residents step up fight over Brexit lorry park 20/01/2021 The Guardian
154. EXCLUSIVE: Another shock as DHL Express suspends some UK-EU services 20/01/2021 The Loadstar
155. Dixons Carphone has had "teething problems" supplying Ireland after Brexit deal 20/01/2021 Reuters

87
156. Delivery costs for Northern Ireland-Britain trade set to rise, hauliers say 20/01/2021 Reuters
157. Food supply problems in NI clearly a Brexit issue - Coveney 21/01/2021 BBC News
158. Brexit: Exporter sets up Dutch firm to avoid bureaucracy 21/01/2021 BBC News
159. Brexit: 'I was asked to pay an extra £82 for my £200 coat' 21/01/2021 BBC News
160. Britons buying from EU websites hit with £100 customs bills 21/01/2021 The Guardian
161. Brexit responsible for food supply problems in Northern Ireland, Ireland says 21/01/2021 Reuters
162. UK factories fear shortage of materials and workers as COVID and Brexit hit 21/01/2021 Reuters
163. Crisps lorry held up for two days by Northern Irish Brexit checks, MPs told 21/01/2021 The Guardian
164. DB Schenker resumes land shipments to the UK 21/01/2021 The Loadstar
165. Border control chaos for trucks: 'crossing the iron curtain would be easier' 21/01/2021 The Loadstar
166. After Brexit, Ireland and France cut out the middleman - Britain 22/01/2021 Reuters
167. Brexit: Retailers warn they could burn goods stuck in EU 22/01/2021 BBC News
168. Brexit: Nissan commits to keep making cars in Sunderland 22/01/2021 BBC News
169. Brexit: Amazon to ask for GB to NI customs declarations 22/01/2021 BBC News
170. Shipping crisis: I'm being quoted £10,000 for a £1,600 container' 22/01/2021 BBC News
171. Brexit has given competitive edge on car battery tariffs, says Nissan chief 22/01/2021 The Guardian
172. Cheshire cheesemaker says business left with £250,000 'Brexit hole' 23/01/2021 The Guardian
173. 'A Brexit nightmare': the British businesses being pushed to breaking point 23/01/2021 The Guardian
174. Brexit: Can Irish Sea border ‘teething problems’ be solved? 23/01/2021 BBC News
175. Move to EU to avoid Brexit costs, firms told 23/01/2021 The Guardian
176. UK firms told 'set up in EU to avoid trade disruption' 24/01/2021 BBC News
177. Brexit: NI garden centres struggling to get plants from GB 24/01/2021 BBC News
178. Brexit butchers EU trade for Scottish beef producers 25/01/2021 Reuters
179. Brexit: Amazon prepares to stop selling some products to NI 26/01/2021 BBC News
180. 'An absolute killer': small UK firms struggle with Brexit VAT rules 26/01/2021 The Guardian
181. Brexit: Dutch warehouse boom as UK firms forced to invest abroad 26/01/2021 The Guardian
182. Weekly UK-EU freight volumes down 38%, truck data indicates 26/01/2021 Reuters
183. Brexit: Lough Neagh eels can't be sold in Britain 27/01/2021 BBC News
184. Brexit: Poots calls for 'immediate action' on plant problems 27/01/2021 BBC News
185. First flashes of Brexit trade trouble appear in UK data 28/01/2021 Reuters
186. Brexit: British business leaders warn of 'substantial difficulties' at UK ports 29/01/2021 The Guardian
187. Brexit: EU introduces controls on vaccines to NI 29/01/2021 BBC News
188. EU leaves UK off exempt list for tighter vaccine export controls 29/01/2021 The Guardian
189. EU in U-turn over move to control vaccine exports to Northern Ireland 29/01/2021 The Guardian
190. Fears that post-Brexit regime may lead to trailer shortage and higher rates 29/01/2021 The Loadstar
191. UK firms plan to shift across Channel after Brexit chaos 30/01/2021 The Guardian
192. EU’s vaccine blunder reopens Brexit battle over Irish border 30/01/2021 The Guardian
193. Arlene Foster urges PM to replace 'unworkable' NI Brexit deal 30/01/2021 BBC News
194. EU vaccine export row: Bloc backtracks on controls for NI 30/01/2021 BBC News
195. Eight days for carrots to get to Belfast with complex Brexit checks 31/01/2021 The Guardian
196. Road freight between Britain and EU is down by a third, data shows 31/01/2021 The Guardian

88
197. Post-Brexit taxes for steel 'very damaging', says Kinnock 31/01/2021 BBC News
198. Brexit 'teething problems' endemic and could ruin us, say UK businesses 31/01/2021 The Guardian
199. Irish Sea border: What will happen once the grace periods end? 31/01/2021 BBC News
200. Brexit: How much disruption has there been so far? 01/02/2021 BBC News
201. Brexit: Processes to ease food delivery to NI announced 01/02/2021 BBC News
202. Brexit: Soil ban 'could cost nursery £500,000' 01/02/2021 BBC News
203. UK factory growth slows as COVID and Brexit combine -IHS Markit 01/02/2021 Reuters
204. RHA calls on government for 'easement' as transport struggles with Brexit 01/02/2021 The Loadstar
205. Wrapped in Brexit red tape, a UK freight firm struggles to trade 01/02/2021 Reuters
206. Brexit: Animal-based food checks at ports suspended 02/02/2021 BBC News
207. Brexit: Michael Gove calls for extension of Brexit grace periods 02/02/2021 BBC News
208. Brexit: Millions of bees could be 'destroyed' over import rules 02/02/2021 BBC News
209. EU rules on some types of shellfish leave UK fishers 'devastated' 02/02/2021 The Guardian
210. Brexit: Animal border post 'too expensive' for Portsmouth port 02/02/2021 BBC News
211. EU shellfish import ban indefinite, UK fishing industry told 02/02/2021 BBC News
212. EU condemns Northern Ireland Brexit port staff 'threats' 02/02/2021 BBC News
213. Northern Ireland suspends Brexit checks amid safety fears for port staff 02/02/2021 The Guardian
214. UK to seek lifting of Brexit controls in Northern Ireland 02/02/2021 The Guardian
215. Plea for help as Brexit supply chain red tape 'strangles' UK fashion industry 02/02/2021 The Loadstar
216. Brexit one month on: Firms describe hold-up 'hell' and' teething problems' 03/02/2021 BBC News
217. PM urges EU action to ease Brexit tensions in NI 03/02/2021 BBC News
218. EU rebuffs UK demand to soften Northern Ireland Brexit trade terms 03/02/2021 Reuters
219. Second-hand clothing mountain piles up as Brexit halts exports to EU 03/02/2021 The Guardian
220. Gove: Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade disruption not 'teething problems' 03/02/2021 The Loadstar
221. Many UK companies report trade hassles from Brexit shift: HSBC 04/02/2021 Reuters
222. Brexit leaves a bitter taste and a mountain of clothes 04/02/2021 BBC News
223. UK government 'in denial' over EU seafood and fish exports 04/02/2021 BBC News
224. Dublin and EU reject call to scrap Northern Ireland Brexit protocol 04/02/2021 The Guardian
225. Cancer drugs discarded because of Brexit red tape, MPs hear 04/02/2021 The Guardian
226. Call for review of 'vexatious' NI Protocol after problems with customs checks 04/02/2021 The Loadstar
227. Brexit: 71 pages of paperwork for 1 lorry of fish 05/02/2021 BBC News
228. Live farm animal exports to mainland EU at a standstill post-Brexit 05/02/2021 The Guardian
229. Brexit: Irish Sea border issues foreseen when deal was done 06/02/2021 BBC News
230. Fury at Gove as exports to EU slashed by 68% since Brexit 06/02/2021 The Guardian
231. Hauliers say exports to European Union are down 68pc since Brexit 07/02/2021 The Telegraph
232. From fashion to farming: how Brexit is hitting Britain's trade 07/02/2021 The Guardian
233. The growing Brexit threat to Ireland 07/02/2021 The Guardian
234. UK importers brace for 'disaster' as new Brexit customs checks loom 07/02/2021 The Guardian
235. Government hits back at claims Brexit is stifling exports to EU 08/02/2021 The Guardian
236. Brexit: NI firms' increased costs 'linked to red tape' 08/02/2021 BBC News
237. Brexit: Cheese wholesaler 'gives up on Ireland' 08/02/2021 BBC News

89
238. Brexit: Call to cut Welsh ports in a bid to boost trade 08/02/2021 BBC News
239. Yorkshire lobster exporter says Brexit costs have forced it to close 08/02/2021 The Guardian
240. Government defends role in preparing industry for post-Brexit border controls 08/02/2021 The Loadstar
241. Bridlington lobster firm blames closure on Brexit rules 08/02/2021 BBC News
242. EU to seek more time to ratify Brexit trade deal amid tensions with UK 09/02/2021 The Guardian
243. NI Protocol: Manufacturing firms 'significantly' hit 09/02/2021 BBC News
244. Brexit worse than feared, says JD Sports boss 09/02/2021 BBC News
245. Brexit: UK pig exports 'facing a crisis' 09/02/2021 BBC News
246. Government failed traders over new Brexit rules of origin requirements 09/02/2021 The Loadstar
247. UK had 'one or two' Brexit teething issues on fishing, minister says 09/02/2021 Reuters
248. Factbox: What changes does Britain want to N. Ireland post-Brexit rules? 09/02/2021 Reuters
249. Britain wants to resolve post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade issues quickly 09/02/2021 Reuters
250. JD Sports eyes European warehouse to counter post-Brexit tariffs 09/02/2021 Reuters
251. Brexit to negatively affect German-British trade this year: DIHK 09/02/2021 Reuters
252. Brexit: Stena Line 'committed to Wales' despite traffic drop 10/02/2021 BBC News
253. Trailer shortage fears as EU drivers question the viability of serving the UK 10/02/2021 The Loadstar
254. 'Resilient' freight business rescues a tough year for DFDS 10/02/2021 The Loadstar
255. Road freight prices from France to Britain jump 50% in January - data 10/02/2021 Reuters
256. Brexit: Small businesses 'drowning in paperwork' face higher costs 10/02/2021 BBC News
257. Food traders say Brexit impact 'could get worse' 10/02/2021 BBC News
258. Retail distributor blames 12% drop in turnover on uncertainty over NI Protocol 10/02/2021 Belfast Telegraph
259. Half of UK exporters to EU are having Brexit difficulties, survey finds 11/02/2021 The Guardian
260. Nearly half of UK goods exporters see Brexit trade trouble 11/02/2021 Reuters
261. Businesses offered £20m Brexit fund after border trade disruption 11/02/2021 The Guardian
262. Phasing-in new UK Customs border checks may have been a mistake 11/02/2021 The Loadstar
263. Brexit: Trade friction 'not teething problems' 12/02/2021 BBC News
264. Post-Brexit Northern Ireland volumes shipping via Scotland instead of Dublin 12/02/2021 The Loadstar
265. Post-Brexit trade: 'If you don't speak French, you're stuffed' 12/02/2021 BBC News
266. UK and EU hold 'frank but constructive' talks on NI trade rules 12/02/2021 BBC News
267. Brexit: Can the Northern Ireland Protocol be tweaked? 13/02/2021 BBC News
268. Brexit: as half its sales are wiped out, silk firm joins exodus to Europe 14/02/2021 The Guardian
269. Raab shrugs off Brexit troubles, urging people to take ‘10-year view’ 14/02/2021 The Guardian
270. Brexit causing supply problems for small UK manufacturers: survey 15/02/2021 Reuters
271. Exporters getting to grips with post-Brexit processes, 'but new pains loom' 15/02/2021 The Loadstar
272. Brexit: NI Protocol is 'only solution' despite challenges 16/02/2021 BBC News
273. Overhaul red tape to seize Brexit dividend, says landmark report 16/02/2021 The Telegraph
274. 'Trading with the EU becoming financially unviable for some firms', MPs told 16/02/2021 The Loadstar
275. Brexit: Are freight exports to the EU back to normal? 17/02/2021 BBC News
276. Brexit: NI port operators warn of grace period end 17/02/2021 BBC News
277. Brexit? No problem on our side, says Port of Calais Boulogne chairman 17/02/2021 The Loadstar
278. Brexit forces Northern Ireland buyers to cancel orders for 100,000 trees 17/02/2021 The Guardian

90
279. More 'Brexit' companies shift to the Netherlands as uncertainty persists 18/02/2021 Reuters
280. I thought Brexit would be hard for small businesses like mine – but not this hard 18/02/2021 The Guardian
281. Northern Ireland firms optimistic Brexit barriers will be eased 18/02/2021 The Guardian
282. Brexit: Ban on GB to NI tree sales 'a major setback' 18/02/2021 BBC News
283. 'An invisible traffic jam of exports' as shipper anxiety builds 18/02/2021 The Loadstar
284. Post-Brexit regulations out of synch with Scottish groupage operations 19/02/2021 The Loadstar
285. Twycross Zoo conservation 'halted by lack of Brexit forms' 19/02/2021 BBC News
286. How European businesses are adapting to Brexit 20/02/2021 BBC News
287. Ports feel the chill as trade re-routes around Brexit Britain 20/02/2021 The Guardian
288. Exclusive: Britain could declare Brexit ‘water wars’ in response to Brussels’ blockade on 20/02/2021 The Telegraph
shellfish
289. UK to widen post-Brexit support to fishing businesses 21/02/2021 Reuters
290. Sussex medicines firm takes production line abroad in white van to beat Brexit ban 21/02/2021 The Guardian
291. From the docks to the eBay – will online marketplaces save the fishing industry? 21/02/2021 The Guardian
292. Brexit: NI supermarkets face new rules for GB meat products 22/02/2021 BBC News
293. Brexit 'an exercise in damage limitation' for UK automotive supply chains 23/02/2021 The Loadstar
294. Brexit trade delays getting worse at UK border, survey finds 24/02/2021 The Guardian
295. Counting the cost of Brexit’s impact on trade 24/02/2021 The Economist
296. UK and EU fail to break impasse over Irish Sea border 24/02/2021 The Guardian
297. Cairnryan border control post preparations made 24/02/2021 BBC News
298. UK fashion houses hit out at post-Brexit 'hidden costs' for EU customers 24/02/2021 The Loadstar
299. Northern Ireland 'hamstrung' by Brexit, which may threaten quality of life 26/02/2021 The Loadstar
300. Why is the Northern Ireland protocol so contentious? 10/03/2021 The Economist
301. UK factory production slows amid Brexit and Covid disruption 01/03/2021 The Guardian
302. Finding the way through delays from a maze of post-Brexit red tape 01/03/2021 The Loadstar
303. Fishing firms could go bust over Brexit, MPs told 02/03/2021 BBC News
304. Brexit: EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law 03/03/2021 BBC News
305. Brussels says plan to extend Brexit grace period breaks international law 03/03/2021 The Guardian
306. 'No one is ready' – calls for phase 2 of new customs checks to be postponed 04/03/2021 The Loadstar
307. Brexit: Why Irish freight trade is avoiding Britain 04/03/2021 BBC News
308. Brexit: Further trade rules relaxed between GB and NI 05/03/2021 BBC News
309. UK Statistics Authority rebukes Gove over Brexit figures 06/03/2021 The Guardian
310. Food scarcity fears prompt plan to ease post-Brexit checks on EU imports 07/03/2021 The Guardian
311. British ports say they are not ready for Brexit customs checks 07/03/2021 The Guardian
312. Cumbria shellfish producers call for water grading change 07/03/2021 BBC News
313. UK ports plead for more time to build border posts for new customs procedures 08/03/2021 The Loadstar
314. Brexit: Lord Frost accuses EU of 'ill will' over UK exit 08/03/2021 BBC News
315. Brexit: What will happen when EU-GB grace periods expire? 10/03/2021 BBC News
316. Brexit: Why has UK trade with Germany fallen so dramatically? 10/03/2021 BBC News
317. 'Desperate' Jersey fishermen blocked harbour in protest 10/03/2021 BBC News
318. Brexit: UK acted prevent empty shelves, says Brandon Lewis 10/03/2021 BBC News

91
319. More than 25% of trucks leaving the UK for EU are empty as exports dive 10/03/2021 The Loadstar
320. UK government accused of 'spin-doctoring of the highest order' over freight movement 11/03/2021 The Loadstar
321. Industry relief as UK government delays next phases of post-Brexit border checks 11/03/2021 The Loadstar
322. Brexit: John Lewis to restart NI deliveries before summer 11/03/2021 BBC News
323. Derbyshire cheese maker upset at £180 post-Brexit Stilton fee 11/03/2021 BBC News
324. Brexit: UK delays border checks on EU goods into Great Britain 11/03/2021 BBC News
325. Brexit: trade survey finds 74% of British firms hit by delays with EU markets 11/03/2021 The Guardian
326. UK forced to delay checks on imports from EU by six months 11/03/2021 The Guardian
327. UK delays post-Brexit import checks to give more time to prepare 11/03/2021 Reuters
328. In Northern Ireland, UK's Johnson defends post-Brexit trade moves 12/03/2021 Reuters
329. UK exports to European Union drop 40% in January 12/03/2021 BBC News
330. Deferring new UK-EU customs controls no 'universal fix' for underlying problems 12/03/2021 The Loadstar
331. Exports to EU plunge by 40% in first month since Brexit 12/03/2021 The Guardian
332. 'It’s been tough': UK exporters on how Brexit has damaged them 13/03/2021 The Guardian
333. Eight major government U-turns on post-Brexit controls 13/03/2021 The Guardian
334. Collapse of trade with EU will ‘last until the summer’ 13/03/2021 The Guardian
335. The Observer view on the grim effects of Brexit being impossible to hide 14/03/2021 The Guardian
336. Call for more help for UK SMEs left out in the Brexit cold 15/03/2021 The Loadstar
337. Brexit: Trade changes 'challenging' for Welsh car industry 17/03/2021 BBC News
338. UK seafood exporters need same grace period as importers to avoid 'disaster' 17/03/2021 The Loadstar
339. Irish Sea Border: Brexit 'forces' NI supplier to buy less from GB 17/03/2021 BBC News
340. British exports to Ireland fall by almost €1bn 18/03/2021 BBC News
341. Irish goods imports from Britain fall 65% in January after Brexit 18/03/2021 Reuters
342. Brexit blamed for British exports to Ireland falling 65% in January 18/03/2021 The Guardian
343. Brexit: Some tobacco products withdrawn from NI market 19/03/2021 BBC News
344. Buying a £5,000 bike from Poland has become a Brexit nightmare 22/03/2021 The Guardian
345. Even no deal might make more sense than this unstable Brexit agreement 22/03/2021 The Guardian
346. The UK now 'a micro-climate in Europe' when it comes to shipping 22/03/2021 The Loadstar
347. Data shows collapse of UK food and drink exports post-Brexit 22/03/2021 The Guardian
348. Brexit: John Lewis resumes NI home deliveries 23/03/2021 BBC News
349. John Lewis delivering smaller parcels to Northern Ireland again 23/03/2021 Belfast Telegraph
350. Irish Sea border trade service 'gradually improving' 24/03/2021 BBC News
351. How Brexit added layers of bureaucracy to meat exports 24/03/2021 The Guardian
352. UK firm to stop using British pork after post-Brexit border problems 24/03/2021 The Guardian
353. British meat industry warns of permanent loss of trade with EU 24/03/2021 Reuters
354. Brexit: Welsh ports under threat from post-Brexit trade 25/03/2021 BBC News
355. Brexit: EU shellfish ban indefensible, says minister 25/03/2021 BBC News
356. Technology is key to cutting through the reels of post-Brexit red tape 26/03/2021 The Loadstar
357. Brexit: EU expects UK 'road map' on NI Protocol 26/03/2021 BBC News
358. All is not rosy for UK gardens as Brexit hits supplies and Covid hikes demand 28/03/2021 The Guardian
359. 'We've been sold a dud': small firms suffer decline in post-Brexit exports 29/03/2021 The Guardian

92
360. More than a fifth of small UK exporters have temporarily halted EU sales 29/03/2021 Reuters
361. Defra says EU has changed the rules, forcing higher costs on UK SMEs 29/03/2021 The Loadstar
362. UK 'success story' SMEs struggle to stay afloat in a maze of post-Brexit red tape 30/03/2021 The Loadstar
363. What Brexit changed for clothes, flower and sausage firms 31/03/2021 BBC News
364. Brexit: Businesses find 'teething problems' trading with the EU 31/03/2021 BBC News
365. Trading relationships three months after Brexit 31/03/2021 BBC News
366. Brexit: Scottish dog food firm relocates to France due to export red tape 01/04/2021 The Guardian
367. Brexit: Counting the cost of the Irish sea border 01/04/2021 BBC News
368. Half of UK firms expect long-term post-Brexit disruption - survey 03/04/2021 Reuters
369. From bikes to booze, how Brexit barriers are hitting Anglo-Dutch trade hard 04/04/2021 The Guardian
370. Small-time dealers fear Brexit could decimate antiques trade in UK 05/04/2021 The Guardian
371. The key to post-Brexit change is preparation – don't delay, say thriving firms 06/04/2021 The Loadstar
372. Fashion returns bound up in post-Brexit red tape, raising costs for SMEs 07/04/2021 The Loadstar
373. Brexit weighs on French exports to Britain in February - customs office 08/04/2021 Reuters
374. Freight traffic between Welsh and Irish ports rises after slump 08/04/2021 BBC News
375. Trade with France bounces back to pre-Brexit levels 09/04/2021 The Telegraph
376. UK consumers need clear idea of cost of EU purchases, Which? says 10/04/2021 The Guardian
377. UK and EU edge closer to deal on Brexit checks in Northern Ireland 12/04/2021 The Guardian
378. UK trade recovering but picture is clouded by Covid and Brexit 13/04/2021 The Guardian
379. Brexit prompts JD Sports to open Dublin warehouse 13/04/2021 BBC News
380. UK exports to Ireland partially recover following Brexit 13/04/2021 BBC News
381. NI sea border: Border control posts must progress 'without delay' 13/04/2021 BBC News
382. UK exports to EU rebound partially after January's slump 13/04/2021 BBC News
383. Firm behind Tayto crisps facing Brexit 'logistical problems' as it reports £207.2m in 13/04/2021 Belfast Telegraph
revenue
384. Drifting apart? European firms battle to reach UK clients 13/04/2021 Reuters
385. Some progress to ease GB-NI border friction, but our costs are rising, says industry 14/04/2021 The Loadstar
386. Medicine supply chains into NI post-Brexit a 'high risk area' 15/04/2021 BBC News
387. Cross-border trade in Ireland 'has increased dramatically' in 2021 15/04/2021 BBC News
388. Permanent facilities for Brexit checks at NI ports will not be ready ‘until 2023’ 15/04/2021 Belfast Telegraph
389. EU post-Brexit imports from UK halve in Jan-Feb, trade surplus rises 16/04/2021 Reuters
390. Exclusive: Northern Ireland faces medicine shortages ‘unless Brexit rules are changed’ 18/04/2021 The Telegraph
391. Brexit: Dublin Port trade down 15% compared to last year 19/04/2021 BBC News
392. More Irish-British trade diverted via N.Ireland post-Brexit -port boss 19/04/2021 Reuters
393. UK eases post-Brexit controls on vehicles taking goods to the EU 20/04/2021 Reuters
394. 'Passport to Kent' scrapped as delays fade thanks to 'prepared' hauliers 20/04/2021 The Loadstar
395. Brexit: Lorry permit to enter Kent scrapped and M20 barrier removed 20/04/2021 BBC News
396. New Zealand-style agri-food deal 'would help NI' 21/04/2021 BBC News
397. Ponies detained at Belfast Port over Brexit forms to be released 22/04/2021 BBC News
398. Brexit: ponies held for month in Belfast port freed after court ruling 22/04/2021 The Guardian
399. Ponies detained at Belfast port due to Brexit paperwork errors released 23/04/2021 Belfast Telegraph

93
400. ‘It’s a betrayal’: Cornish fishing vote turns against Tories over Brexit deal 25/04/2021 The Guardian
401. UK retailers warn of higher prices as costs rise 28/04/2021 Reuters
402. Pressure mounts to reopen Brexit deal 29/04/2021 BBC News
403. Fishermen accuse Government of Brexit betrayal as Norway deal falls through 29/04/2021 The Telegraph
404. Comment: Tariff-free UK-EU trade? The reality is a minefield of Brexit red tape 30/04/2021 The Loadstar

94
Appendix B: The Survey Questionnaire

Impacts of Brexit on Logistics and Supply Chain Activities in the UK.

Welcome to my survey.

Thank you for participating in this survey. Your feedback is important and appreciated.

This survey is part of a research project designed to analyse selected impacts and disruptions of Brexit on the
logistics and supply chain activities in the UK.

The aim of the research project is to investigate and analyze some of the impacts of Brexit on logistics and
supply chain activities that are associated with the flows of physical goods and then provide
recommendations on how to mitigate these impacts. The research aims to show how Brexit affected
countries, supply chains, industries, markets, products, business owners, and logistics services.

This survey is anonymous, consisting of multiple questions with an estimated response time of 10 minutes.

Participation is entirely voluntary, and you can withdraw from the questionnaire at any time if you feel
uncomfortable or you think there are ethics-related issues.

The data gathered from the survey is purely for academic purposes.

If you have any questions regarding this study aim or procedures or if you wish to receive the report, please
do not hesitate to contact me via my university e-mail at (w1802288@my.westminster.ac.uk).

You will be rewarded by receiving the study report, showing the perception of the market actors in UK
logistics about selected Brexit impacts, and an analysis.

Researcher: Amr Fawzy, MSc student, MSc Logistics and Supply Chain Management
Supervisor: Dr Jacques Leonardi
Institution: University of Westminster

95
Based on your professional knowledge and company experience, please give an estimation on the
following statements and impact questions. In case the statement is not relevant to your activities,
please select “no answer (n/a)”

96
Post-Brexit Customs Declarations
Shipment paperwork and customs declarations documents have changed at the border after Brexit,
increasing the workload of operatives and drivers

Statement (#1)
During the first weeks of 2021 post-Brexit, road haulage has struggled at crossing the English Channel
with denied entries, delays and extra costs that resulted from post-Brexit changes in customs
declarations requirements, and as a result, some freight forwarders and trucks' drivers avoiding UK
businesses.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

Statement (#2)
Because of post-Brexit paperwork, most of the freight trucks that were returning from the UK to the EU
had empty return loads, as a result, the hauliers had to raise the rates for freight transport to the UK and
that has affected the logistics and supply chain activities in the UK.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

97
Statement (#3)
Post-Brexit, many UK businesses have struggled with delays and increased costs for moving goods to the
EU, as a result, many UK businesses are opting to temporarily suspend trade with EU-based customers
or even stop permanently.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

Statement (#4)
How likely the investing in hiring more customs agents who have experience with non-EU overseas
imports/exports by the involved businesses and freight transport firms would positively contribute to
resolving the issues related to the post-Brexit extra needed paperwork for trading goods between EU-
UK?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

Statement (#5)
How likely the establishing of a branch, warehouse, or depot in the EU by the UK-based businesses for
serving their EU customers would positively contribute to resolving the issues related to the post-Brexit
extra delays or costly shipping for trading goods with the EU?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

98
Post-Brexit Tariff Regime
Despite agreeing on a free trade deal between UK-EU, there is a new tariff regime to deal with

Statement (#6)
Because of the post-Brexit tariff regime, the UK Businesses that depend on the re-exporting trade with
the EU are facing trade disruptions because of the 'Rules of Origin'*.

(*) Rules of origin govern how customs authorities determine the 'economic nationality' of goods - either where they are wholly grown,
produced or where the last substantial manufacturing transformation took place.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

Statement (#7)
Most of the global freight transportation firms have already raised the rates for the shipments between
EU-UK given their incremental investments on the needed changes to their systems, processes, solutions
to operate as per the post-Brexit tariff regime new rules.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

99
Statement (#8)
How likely the greater localization of the UK-based businesses' supply chains and particularly the on-
shoring of raw materials would positively contribute to resolve the issues related to the post-Brexit tariff
regime?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

Statement (#9)
How likely the greater usage of the bonded warehouses* concept by businesses would positively
contributes to resolve the issues related to the re-exporting trade after Brexit?

(*) Bonded warehouse is a building or other secured area in which dutiable goods may be stored, manipulated, or undergo manufacturing
operations without payment of duty.

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

Statement (#10)
How likely the greater usage of doing business between EU-UK according to the Delivered Duty Paid
(DDP)* incoterms would positively contribute to resolve the issues related to post-Brexit VAT system
changes?

(*) DDP is the only Incoterms rule that places responsibility for import clearance and payment of taxes and/or import duty on the seller.

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

100
Re-directing Freight
Post-Brexit, the hauliers and shipping companies started to rethink about the freight routes.

Statement (#11)
Because of post-Brexit border delays, hauliers and shipping companies started to explore and use new
routes to avoid the UK land-bridge* which was favoured by hauliers to move goods from mainland
Europe** to Ireland.

(*) The UK land-bridge refers to the route that connects the Republic of Ireland to the rest of the EU via mainland Britain's road and
ports network – often from Dublin to Holyhead, then across the short Channel straits.
(**) Mainland or continental Europe is the contiguous continent of Europe, excluding its surrounding islands.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

101
Statement (#12)
How much does it cost to send shipment via the UK land-bridge route compared to the sea only route
under current trading situations?

 Much more
 Little more
 Similar
 Slightly less
 Much less
 (n/a)

Statement (#13)
How likely the trend of selecting the new direct routes rather than the UK land-bridge would positively
contribute to resolving the issues related to delays and the uncertainty in regards to trading flows
between mainland Europe and Ireland.

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

102
Northern Ireland
Part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the trade deal between EU-UK was the Northern Ireland
Protocol where Northern Ireland has to follow the EU rules despite being part of the UK.

Statement (#14)
Post-Brexit, the Northern Ireland Protocol* has caused disruptions for the freight groupage** services
which by result caused goods' shortage in many businesses in Northern Ireland (NI) such as
supermarkets and other industries that depend on suppliers from Great Britain***(GB).

(*) The NI protocol aims to: avoid a hard border between NI and the Republic of Ireland. make sure of the integrity of the EU's single
market for goods and facilitate unfettered access for NI goods to the GB market, and the inclusion of NI goods in free trade agreements
between the UK and third countries.
(**) Groupage transport, simply known as groupage, defines a special type of transport consisting in grouping together goods
dispatched by several different companies into a same load.
(***) Great Britain refers to the nations of England, Scotland and Wales.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

103
Statement (#15)
Post-Brexit, many businesses in NI had to suspend or even permanently stop businesses with GB
suppliers and shift for local or Irish suppliers because of the new extra time and costs when it comes to
importing goods from GB.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

Statement (#16)
How likely the EU Health and Safety Standards required certificates (i.e. the Health Certificates)
negatively impact the logistics and supply chain activities in NI?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

Statement (#17)
How likely that the suggested solution that sees the UK government agree on a kind of mutual
recognition of health and safety standards for traded goods with the EU or have a similar model like the
Swiss model* would positively contribute to resolving the issues related to the agri-food shipments and
ease disruption on GB-NI shipping?

(*) The agreement the EU has with Switzerland avoids such checks because the Swiss align their own regulations on animal and plant health
with the bloc’s. When the EU changes its rules, the Swiss change theirs to ensure continued alignment.

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

104
The Scottish Seafood Industry
Given the nature of its products being perishable and time-sensitive, the Scottish fish and seafood
industry was one of the first to be affected by Brexit.

Statement (#18)
Post-Brexit, the extra needed time to secure the required health certificates for each seafood
consignment from Scotland before being exported to the EU has caused damaging disruptions to the
Scottish seafood supply chains.

 Strongly Disagree
 Disagree
 Neutral
 Agree
 Strongly Agree
 (n/a)

Statement (#19)
How likely the disruptions for the groupage transportation service between Scotland and mainland
Europe post-Brexit negatively impact the logistics and supply chain activities related to perishable goods
such as the Scottish seafood products?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

105
Statement (#20)
How likely the EU Health and Safety Standards required certificates (i.e. the Health Certificates)
negatively impact the logistics and supply chain activities in Scotland?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

Statement (#21)
How likely the solution of exploring new near markets like Denmark to replace France and Spain would
positively contribute to resolving the issues related to the Scottish seafood perishable products post-
Brexit?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

Statement (#22)
How likely the solution that involves the UK government to negotiate and agree on a six-month or
longer grace period for the Scottish fish exports would positively contribute to resolving the issues
related to the Scottish seafood perishable products post-Brexit?

 Very unlikely
 Unlikely
 Neutral
 Likely
 Very Likely
 (n/a)

106
Respondent’s Profile

Please select your work sector: -

 Maritime Logistics
 Food Logistics
 Parcels Logistics
 Cold chain Logistics
 Logistics (others)
 Purchasing
 Supply Chain
 Higher Education
 Consulting
 Public Sector
 Other: please specify

Please select your professional background: -

 Academic
 Management
 Shipping operative
 Other

Please select your education qualification: -

 Secondary Certificate
 Graduate
 Master
 PhD

107
Appendix C: List of Universities and their respective survey invitations number.

Number of Invitations to the

University Location
University’s Professors
1. University of Aberdeen Scotland 2
2. Anglia Ruskin University England 3
3. Aston University England 15
4. University of Bath England 8
5. University of Bedfordshire England 2
6. Birmingham City University England 8
7. University of Bolton England 16
8. University of Bradford England 19
9. University of Bristol England 8
10. Brunel University London England 17
11. Cardiff Metropolitan University Wales 5
12. Cardiff University Wales 35
13. Coventry University England 5
14. Cranfield University England 21
15. University of Derby England 7
16. Durham University England 6
17. University of East Anglia UEA England 16
18. Edinburgh Napier University Scotland 17
19. University of Essex England 9
20. University of Exeter England 8
21. Glasgow Caledonian University Scotland 3
22. University of Greenwich England 6
23. Heriot-Watt University Scotland 5
24. University of Hertfordshire England 1
25. University of Huddersfield England 7
26. University of Hull England 9
27. University of Kent England 5
28. Kingston University England 3
29. Lancaster University England 21
30. Leeds Beckett University England 4
31. University of Leeds England 10
32. University of Lincoln England 10
33. Liverpool John Moores University England 8
34. University of Liverpool England 23
35. Loughborough University England 8
36. Manchester Metropolitan University England 4
37. University of Manchester England 5
38. Newcastle University England 19
39. University of Northampton England 2
40. Northumbria University England 15
41. Nottingham Trent University England 17
42. University of Nottingham England 11
43. Oxford Brookes University England 1
44. University of Plymouth England 14
45. University of Portsmouth England 7

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46. Robert Gordon University Scotland 5
47. Royal Holloway, University of London England 7
48. University of Salford England 4
49. Sheffield Hallam University England 18
50. University of South Wales Wales 14
51. Solent University England 4
52. University of Southampton England 7
53. University of Strathclyde Scotland 8
54. University of Sussex England 7
55. Swansea University Wales 6
56. University of Westminster England 6
57. University of Warwick England 2
58. University of the West of Scotland Scotland 3
59. University of Worcester England 3
Total number of survey invitations for the UK universities’ 539
professors

109
Appendix D: Levels of agreements/likelihood among the survey respondents’ different
sub-groups.

110
 The survey respondents’ responses categorized as per their professional backgrounds

Statement Disruption/Solution The Respondents in The Academic Background The Management The Shipping Operative
general Sub-group Background Sub-group Background Sub-group
1 Freight forwards avoided the UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
businesses post-Brexit 4.25 4.0 4.337 4.66
Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High High Very High Very High
2 Rates for freight transport to the UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
were raised because of empty return 3.90 3.88 3.91 4.66
loads post-Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High High High Very High
3 UK businesses opted to suspend Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
trade with EU customers because of 3.66 3.71 3.61 4.33
and increased costs post-Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
delays High High High Very High
4 The investing in hiring more customs Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
agents 3.87 3.62 3.95 4.33
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High Very High
5 The establishment of subsidiaries and Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
branches in the EU for the UK 3.96 3.67 4.03 4.0
businesses Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High High
6 ‘Rules of Origin’ caused issues for UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
businesses that depend on the re- 3.96 4.0 3.93 4.0
exporting trade Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High High High High
7 The rates for the shipments between Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
EU-UK given have been raised 4.05 3.91 4.09 4.0
because of post-Brexit tariff regime Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
new rules High High High High
8 The greater localization of the UK- Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
based businesses' supply chains 3.53 3.39 3.55 3.66
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High Moderate High High
9 The greater usage of the bonded Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
warehouses concept by the UK-based 3.66 3.6 3.63 4.66
businesses Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High Very High
10 The greater usage of doing business Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
between EU-UK according to the 3.39 3.61 3.31 4.0
Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) incoterms Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Moderate High Moderate High
11 Hauliers started to avoid the UK land- Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
bridge and favoured the new direct 3.85 3.46 4.01 4.0
routes post-Brexit to avoid delays Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
and the uncertainty High High High High
12 Difference of costs between using Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
the UK land-bridge and the new 2.64 2.77 2.64 1.5
routes by sea Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost-
difference: difference: difference: difference:
Similar Cost Similar Cost Similar Cost Much Higher Cost
13 Selecting the new direct routes Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
rather than the UK land-bridge 3.58 3.26 3.69 3.50
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High Moderate High High

111
14 Issues of the freight groupage Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
services in NI post-Brexit caused 4.02 3.88 4.09 3.66
supply chains’ disruptions Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High High High High
15 Many NI businesses had to suspend Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
or cut trade ties with GB suppliers 3.63 3.33 3.73 3.66
post-Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High Moderate High High
16 The likely negative impact of the EU Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
Health and Safety Standards 3.84 3.79 3.87 3.50
certificates on NI Supply chains Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High High
17 Agreeing on a kind of mutual Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
recognition of health and safety 4.20 4.15 4.22 3.50
standards for traded goods with the Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
EU Very High High Very High High
18 The time needed to secure health Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
certificates for Scottish seafood 4.27 4.03 4.37 4.0
consignments post-Brexit has caused Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
disruptions Very High High Very High High
19 The likely negative impact of Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
groupage transportation service 4.12 4.0 4.17 4.0
disruption on the Scottish traded Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
perishable goods post-Brexit High High High High
20 The likely negative impact of the EU Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
Health and Safety Standards 3.93 3.60 4.04 4.0
certificates on Scottish Supply chains Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High High
21 Exploring new near markets like Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
Denmark to replace France and Spain 3.20 3.34 3.08 4.33
markets for exporting the Scottish Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
seafood products Moderate Moderate Moderate Very High
22 Negotiating on a six-month or longer Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
grace period for the Scottish fish 3.51 3.23 3.60 3.50
exports Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High Moderate High High

112
 The survey respondents’ responses categorized as per their working sector
[Part 1]
Statement Disruption/Solution The Maritime Logistics The Food Logistics The Parcels Logistics The Cold Chain Logistics
Sector Sub-Group Sector Sub-Group Sector Sub-Group Sector Sub-Group
1 Freight forwards avoided the UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
businesses post-Brexit 4.40 3.66 4.57 4.40
Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High High Very High Very High
2 Rates for freight transport to the Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
UK were raised because of empty 4.50 3.66 4.42 3.60
return loads post-Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High High Very High High
3 UK businesses opted to suspend Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
trade with EU customers because 4.20 3.83 3.28 3.80
of and increased costs post-Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
delays High High Moderate High
4 The investing in hiring more Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
customs agents 3.40 4.00 4.14 4.20
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Moderate High High High
5 The establishment of subsidiaries Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
and branches in the EU for the UK 3.40 3.50 4.42 4.40
businesses Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High Very High Very High
6 ‘Rules of Origin’ caused issues for Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
UK businesses that depend on the 4.00 3.50 4.42 3.60
re-exporting trade Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High High Very High High
7 The rates for the shipments Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
between EU-UK given have been 4.00 3.83 4.57 3.80
raised because of post-Brexit tariff Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
regime new rules High High Very High High
8 The greater localization of the UK- Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
based businesses' supply chains 3.00 3.66 4.00 3.20
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Moderate High High Moderate
9 The greater usage of the bonded Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
warehouses concept by the UK- 3.50 3.16 4.28 3.80
based businesses Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Moderate Moderate Very High High
10 The greater usage of doing Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
business between EU-UK according 3.25 3.60 3.57 3.50
to the Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
incoterms Moderate High High High
11 Hauliers started to avoid the UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
land-bridge and favoured the new 3.00 3.40 4.42 4.20
direct routes post-Brexit to avoid Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
delays and the uncertainty Moderate Moderate Very High High
12 Difference of costs between using Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
the UK land-bridge and the new 1.66 3.25 2.33 2.33
routes by sea Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost-
difference: difference: difference: difference:
Much Higher Cost Similar Cost Higher Cost Higher Cost
13 Selecting the new direct routes Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
rather than the UK land-bridge 1.66 3.25 3.71 3.80
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Very Low Moderate High High

113
14 Issues of the freight groupage Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
services in NI post-Brexit caused 3.40 4.33 4.42 3.80
supply chains’ disruptions Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Moderate Very High Very High High
15 Many NI businesses had to suspend Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
or cut trade ties with GB suppliers 4.00 3.83 3.66 3.80
post-Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High High High High
16 The likely negative impact of the Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
EU Health and Safety Standards 3.50 3.83 4.00 3.40
certificates on NI Supply chains Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High Moderate
17 Agreeing on a kind of mutual Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
recognition of health and safety 4.00 4.33 4.28 4.20
standards for traded goods with Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
the EU High Very High Very High High
18 The time needed to secure health Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
certificates for Scottish seafood 3.80 4.40 4.42 4.40
consignments post-Brexit has Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
caused disruptions High Very High Very High Very High
19 The likely negative impact of Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
groupage transportation service 3.60 3.80 3.71 4.20
disruption on the Scottish traded Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
perishable goods post-Brexit High High High High
20 The likely negative impact of the Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
EU Health and Safety Standards 2.80 4.60 4.28 4.20
certificates on Scottish Supply Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
chains Moderate Very High Very High High
21 Exploring new near markets like Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
Denmark to replace France and 3.20 3.75 3.28 2.80
Spain markets for exporting the Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Scottish seafood products Moderate High Moderate Moderate
22 Negotiating on a six-month or Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
longer grace period for the Scottish 4.25 4.00 3.71 3.40
fish exports Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Very High High High Moderate

114
 The survey respondents’ responses categorized as per their working sector
[Part 2]

Statement Disruption/Solution The Purchasing Sector The Supply Chain The Public Sector Sub- The Consulting Sector
Sub-Group Sector Sub-Group Group Sub-Group
1 Freight forwards avoided the UK businesses Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
post-Brexit Weighted Mean = 4.50 3.00 4.33
5.00 Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Level of Agreement: Very High Moderate Very High
Very High

2 Rates for freight transport to the UK were Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
raised because of empty return loads post- 4.50 4.00 3.00 3.75
Brexit Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High High Moderate High
3 UK businesses opted to suspend trade with EU Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
customers because of and increased costs 4.00 3.77 2.50 4.33
post-Brexit delays Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High High Low Very High
4 The investing in hiring more customs agents Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
4.50 3.90 4.00 3.833
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Very High High High High
5 The establishment of subsidiaries and branches Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
in the EU for the UK businesses 4.50 4.18 3.50 4.66
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Very High High High Very High
6 ‘Rules of Origin’ caused issues for UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
businesses that depend on the re-exporting 2.50 4.05 4.50 4.20
trade Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Low High Very High High
7 The rates for the shipments between EU-UK Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
given have been raised because of post-Brexit 4.50 4.31 3.50 4.00
tariff regime new rules Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High Very High High High
8 The greater localization of the UK-based Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
businesses' supply chains 4.00 3.52 4.50 3.66
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High Very High High
9 The greater usage of the bonded warehouses Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
concept by the UK-based businesses 3.50 3.90 4.00 3.16
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High Moderate
10 The greater usage of doing business between Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
EU-UK according to the Delivered Duty Paid 3.00 3.14 4.50 3.60
(DDP) incoterms Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Moderate Moderate Very High High
11 Hauliers started to avoid the UK land-bridge Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
and favoured the new direct routes post-Brexit 3.00 4.10 4.00 3.80
to avoid delays and the uncertainty Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Moderate High High High
12 Difference of costs between using the UK land- Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
bridge and the new routes by sea 1.50 2.29 3.00 3.00
Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost- Evaluation of cost-
difference: difference: difference: difference:
Much Higher Cost Higher Cost Similar Cost Similar Cost

115
13 Selecting the new direct routes rather than the Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
UK land-bridge 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.16
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High Moderate
14 Issues of the freight groupage services in NI Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
post-Brexit caused supply chains’ disruptions 4.50 3.71 3.50 4.60
Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High High High Very High
15 Many NI businesses had to suspend or cut Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
trade ties with GB suppliers post-Brexit 4.50 3.72 3.50 4.25
Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
Very High High High Very High
16 The likely negative impact of the EU Health and Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
Safety Standards certificates on NI Supply 5.00 4.00 3.50 4.00
chains Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Very High High High High
17 Agreeing on a kind of mutual recognition of Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
health and safety standards for traded goods 3.50 4.45 4.00 4.16
with the EU Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High Very High High High
18 The time needed to secure health certificates Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
for Scottish seafood consignments post-Brexit 4.00 4.68 3.00 5.00
has caused disruptions Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement: Level of Agreement:
High Very High Moderate Very High
19 The likely negative impact of groupage Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
transportation service disruption on the 4.50 4.52 4.00 4.50
Scottish traded perishable goods post-Brexit Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Very High Very High High Very High
20 The likely negative impact of the EU Health and Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
Safety Standards certificates on Scottish Supply 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.40
chains Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High High Very High
21 Exploring new near markets like Denmark to Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
replace France and Spain markets for exporting 3.00 2.94 3.50 3.00
the Scottish seafood products Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
Moderate Moderate High Moderate
22 Negotiating on a six-month or longer grace Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean = Weighted Mean =
period for the Scottish fish exports 3.50 3.42 4.50 3.80
Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Likelihood: Level of Agreement:
High High Very High High

116
Appendix E: Usage of SMART BORDER Concept.

Source: (Direction Générale des Douanes et des Droits Indirects, 2019)

117
GLOSSARY

Term Definition

Agri-food The business of producing food agriculturally (as opposed

to fishing, hunting etc.).

Bonded warehouse A customs-controlled depot for the holding of imported

cargoes until the duty owed is paid.

Border Control Post (BCP) A station that is authorized and specified for inspections in
line with the European Union rules regarding conducting
checks on animals, plants, and their products coming from
third countries at a EU border.

Brexit The departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Brexit transition period The period agreed in the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement
where the United Kingdom is no longer an European Union
member but keeps being a member in the EU Single Market
and Customs Union for a specific agreed period of time.

Brexit withdrawal agreement The agreement on the departure of the United Kingdom
from the European Union.

Certificate of origin (CO) A document that is used in international trade transactions

which demonstrates that the product listed therein has met
specific criteria to be considered as originating in a specific
country/region.

Cold chain logistics Refers to the working sector related to the technology and
process that concerned with the safe transport of
temperature-sensitive cargo and products along the supply
chains.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) A disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus.

Customs declaration A document that reveals the lists and detailed description
of commodities bound for import/export.

Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) A set of INCOTERMS rules where the seller accepts all
liabilities and expenses for delivering the exports to the
assigned location of destination.

Det Forenede Dampskibs-Selskab (DFDS) A Danish international shipping and logistics company.

DHL A global courier which is a subsidiary of the German

logistics company Deutsche Post.

118
Distribution centre A warehouse or a specialized building that is stocked with
goods to be redistributed.

Domino effect Refers to the cumulative effect resulted when one event
sets off a chain of events.

Dutch Bike Company LTD A Dutch bicycle part firm.

Duty Refers to a form of taxation levied on certain services,

products, or other transactions.

Economic Operator Registration and An identification number that businesses and individuals
Identification number (EORI) who are involved in trade have to use in all customs
measures when dealing with the customs executives.

Eurotunnel A railway tunnel which links Folkestone with Coquelles

beneath the English Channel. Also known as the Channel
Tunnel, or Chunnel.

Export health certificate (EHC) An official document that proves that certain exports
comply with the health standards of the destination state.

Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) A UK organisation that represents small and medium-sized
businesses.

FedEx An American shipping, delivery services and supply chain

management firm.

Freight forwarder An agent who is responsible for the movement of products

on behalf of the owner.

Frictionless trade Refers to the removal of the tariff and non-tariff barriers for
trading between the different countries/blocs.

Google Scholar A web search engine that files the research and scholarly
literatures.

Grace period In the context of this research, the grace period refers to a
set length of time where the related parties can trade
certain products without the applied trade barriers.

Great Britain (GB) Consists of the nations of England, Wales and Scotland.

Groupage transportation service A special type of transport service consisting in grouping

together products dispatched by several different
businesses into a same load.

Hard border In the context of Brexit, a ‘Hard border’ speaks about all
physical infrastructure that could be set up along the
borders between the Republic of Ireland and Northern
Ireland for inspections and the processing of the movement
of people and cargo.

119
Hard Brexit A phrase used during the Brexit process to depict the
anticipated political, social and economic impact of a sharp
divorce in relations between UK-EU because of the United
Kingdom leaving the European Union.

Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) A division of the British government that has the
responsibility to collect taxes and managing of other
regulatory systems.

Honda A Japanese carmaker.

IHS Markit Ltd A UK information provider.

IKEA A Swedish furniture retailer and manufacture.

International Commercial Terms (INCOTERMS) A series of pre-defined commercial terms that are related
to the international commercial law.

Inventory levels Refers to the amount of inventory that is available

throughout the entire distribution network.

Just-in-time A manufacturing approach where raw material or parts are

delivered instantly just prior to they are required to lower
the storage cost.

Lead time Refers to the time that starts from the first effort to
commence purchase of products, up to the time of its
arrival.

Likert scale A psychometric scale which is used in research that

employs questionnaires.

LinkedIn An online platform which is mainly used for professional

networking.

Logistics The process of designing, executing, and managing

procedures for the efficient and effective hauling and
storing of commodities including services, and associated
information from the origin’s point to the consumption’s
point.

Logistics UK An industry association for freight transport in the UK.

Mainland Europe The contiguous continent of Europe, excluding the

European islands.

Marks and Spencer Group (M&S) A British multinational retailer.

Member State A nation which belongs to a political, economic, or trade

union like the EU.

Microsoft Excel A software that features calculation and graphing tools.

120
National Farmers’ Union (NFU) An industry association for farmers in England and Wales.

National Pig Association (NPA) A trade association for the pig industry in the UK.

Nearshoring supply chain Nearshoring happens when a business decides to transfer

work to companies/suppliers that are geographically closer.

Non-tariff barriers Refers to trade barriers which restrict the movement of

cargo/services via mechanisms apart from imposing tariffs.

Onshoring supply chain The procedure of altering a business operation that was
moved abroad back to the local country from where it was
initially relocated.

Perishable products Refers to products which have an expiration date like food
which shall lose quality if not consumed in a specific
amount of time.

Port capacity A measure of the maximum throughput that a port and its
terminals can handle over a given period.

Port congestion A situation where a ship coming to a seaport for the

purpose of cargo operations is not able to berth and has to
wait outside at an anchorage area waiting for a berth to be
available.

Port hinterland Refers to the area from which products are delivered to a
port for shipping elsewhere.

Port throughput Refers to the amount of cargo or number of ships the port
handles over a given period.

Post-Brexit In the context of this research, ‘post-Brexit’ refers to the

period after 31st December 2020.

Pre-Brexit In the context of this research, ‘pre-Brexit’ refers to the

period prior to 1st January 2021.

Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland A protocol to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that
governs the unique customs issues at the border between
the UK, Northern Ireland and the EU, and on some aspects
of trade between Northern Ireland and GB.

Quota A governmental trade restriction which limits the quantity

or financial value of cargo that a state can import or export
during a certain period.

Red tape An idiom describing the conformity to official rules or

standards that are claimed to be excessive, rigid or
unnecessary, or to bureaucracy claimed to obstruct or
prevent action and decision-making.

121
Re-exporting trade A form of international trade where a business exports
cargo which was previously imported without altering
them.

Response bias A phrase for a wide range of tendencies for respondents to

give inaccurate or false answers to questions.

Road Haulage Association (RHA) A trade association in the UK committed exclusively to road
haulage.

Roll-on/Roll-off (RORO) A ferry in which ships are driven directly on at the

beginning of the journey and driven off at the end of it.

Rules of origin Rules of origin are the rules to attribute a country of origin
to a product to decide its "economic nationality".

Sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) Procedures to safeguard people, animals, and plants from
illnesses and contaminants.

Scandinavian Outdoor A Finnish retail and online store company.

Shelf life The length of time a product can be stored without

becoming unsuitable for use or consumption.

SMART border Refers to information and communication technologies

which allow de-territorialized borders’ controls. That
involve biometric, data and information exchange systems.

Soft Brexit A phrase used during the Brexit process to refer to a

divorce between EU-UK which ensures the retaining of a
close relationship with the EU, staying inside the EU Single
Market and the EU Customs Union.

Stena Line A Swedish shipping line company.

Supply chain A network between companies and their suppliers to produce and
distribute a certain product to the final consumers.

Supply chain resilience Refers to the capacity of a supply chain for persisting,
adapting, or transforming while facing of a change.

SurveyKing An online survey platform.

T1 document A customs document used in cross-border movement of

goods.

Tariff A tax evaluated by governments on products entering or

leaving a state.

Teething problems Refers to the short-term problems that normally occur in

the early stages after a new change.

122
The British Meat Processors Association A trade association that represents the meat processing
(BMPA) industry in the UK.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) A trade association for retail businesses in the UK.

The Chartered Institute of Procurement An international professional body working for the supply
and Supply (CIPS) and procuring professions.

The Christmas period An annually recurring period that runs from November to
early January in many countries.

The European Economic Area (EEA) Refers to an economic area that includes the members of
the EU plus Liechtenstein, Norway, and Iceland.

The European Single Market Refers to the European Union as one territory with no internal
borders or other regulatory barriers to the free-movement of
cargo and services.

The European Union (EU) An economic and political union between twenty-seven
European nations.

The European Union Customs Union An alliance created by the members of the EU which
imposes a complete system of rules for the imports and
exports of the EU.

The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement A free-trade agreement between the European Union, the
(TCA) European Atomic Energy Community, and the United
Kingdom.

The Export or Transit Accompanying Document A formal evidence from a competent customs office that an
(EAD) export is admissible.

The Kent access permit (KAP) A mandatory UK permit scheme designed to reduce traffic
congestion at the port of Dover following the end of the
Brexit Transition period.

The Norwegian model In the context of this research, the Norwegian model refers
to the agreement between Norway and the European
Union regarding the veterinary regulations.

The Scottish Seafood Association A Scottish organization promoting the Scottish seafood
industry.

The Swiss Cheese model of accident causation A model used in risk analysis and risk management.

The Swiss model In the context of this research, the Swiss model refers to
the agreement between Switzerland and the European
Union regarding the regulations of animal and plant health.

The UK land-bridge Refers to the route that links the Republic of Ireland with
mainland Europe via mainland Britain's road and ports
network.

123
The United Kingdom (UK) An island nation in north-western Europe made of England,
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The Universities and Colleges Admissions A UK-based organisation which manages the application
Service (UCAS) process for the UK’s universities.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) An intergovernmental organization that regulates and
facilitates international trade between nations.

Third Country A country that is not a member of the European Union.

TNT Express An international courier delivery services company.

TRACES An online platform for sanitary and phytosanitary

certification needed for the importing of animals, animal
products, food and feed of non-animal origin and plants
into the European Union.

Trading bloc A group of countries that have reduced or eliminated trade

barriers for its participants.

United Parcel Service (UPS) An American multinational shipping, receiving, and supply
chain management company.

Value-added tax (VAT) A goods and services tax which is evaluated incrementally
and imposed on the price of goods or services at each stage
of the producing, the distributing, or the selling to the final
customer.

Minor, Weir & Willis Ltd A UK handler of fresh produce.

124
INDEX

A
L
Administrative overload ..........................................33
Lead time .................................................................67
B Logistics ...................................................................13
Lorries Queues .........................................................32
Bonded warehouses concept ..................................60
Border control posts (BCPs) .....................................35 N
Border delays ...........................................................20
Nearshoring .............................................................73
Brexit .......................................................................14
Non-tariff barriers ....................................................16
Brexit Transition Period ...........................................15
Northern Ireland ......................................................18
Brexit Withdrawal Agreement .................................15
O
C
Onshoring ................................................................73
Certificate of origin (CO) ..........................................58
Consignment delays.................................................40 P
Customs declarations ..............................................19 Paperwork burden ...................................................19
D Perishable logistics ..................................................20
Port capacity ............................................................20
Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) .......................................60
Ports congestion ......................................................20
E Ports throughput .....................................................21
Post-Brexit tariff regime ..........................................37
Economic Operator Registration and Identification
number (EORI) .....................................................33 R
Export health certificate (EHC) ................................40
Re-directing of freight..............................................35
Exports restrictions ..................................................41
Re-Exporting trade ...................................................37
F Rejected consignments............................................40
Republic of Ireland ...................................................18
Freight forwarders ...................................................56
Rules of Origin .........................................................17
Frictionless Trade.....................................................15
S
G
SMART Border .........................................................57
Grace periods...........................................................68
Soft Brexit ................................................................15
Groupage .................................................................38
Stockpiling ...............................................................32
H Supply chain.............................................................13
Hard border .............................................................16 Supply Chain Risk .....................................................13
Hard Brexit ...............................................................15 Supply chains resilience ...........................................73
Health and Safety Standards ...................................17 T
I T1 documents ..........................................................38
Inventory levels .......................................................54 Tariffs .......................................................................17
IT Systems ................................................................17 Teething Problems ...................................................72
The European Customs Union .................................14
J The European Single Market ...................................14
Just-in-time ..............................................................58 The European Union ................................................14
The Frictionless Trade ..............................................15

125
The Kent Access Permit (KAP)..................................34
The Norwegian model .............................................69
The Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland ........16
The Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) ......................66
The Swiss Cheese model of accident causation.......73
The Swiss model ......................................................66
The UK land-bridge ..................................................35
The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)
.............................................................................16
V
VAT ..........................................................................19
W
Welsh Ports..............................................................18
126
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