CHOCOCONO

PRONÓSTICO PROMEDIO MÓVIL

Item Ref
PARÁMETROS (N)
6 PRONÓSTICO

MES DEMANDA PROM MÓVIL (Mt)

May 2020 0
June 2020 0

DATOS DE INICIO
July 2020 0
August 2020 9
September 2020 56
October 2020 48
November 2020 111
December 2020 96
January 2021 88
February 2021 81
March 2021 59
April 2021 66 Err:502
May 2021 26 Err:502
June 2021 83 Err:502
July 2021 92 Err:502
SIMULACIÓN

August 2021 73 Err:502

September 2021 90 Err:502
October 2021 99 Err:502
November 2021 88 Err:502
December 2021 153 Err:502
January 2022 80 Err:502
February 2022 3 Err:502

CV 0.657
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 41.863
DEMANDA PROMEDIO 63.682
PATRÓN ESTACIONARIA O PERPETUA
 MAD MAPE MAPE' ECM
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

e lel lel/xt lel/x^t e²

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
 CHOCOCONO
180

160

140

120

100
f(x) = 0.108308184042943 x − 4731.37256746229
80 R² = 0.261801262398701

60

40

20

0
May 2020 September 2020 January 2021 May 2021 September 2021 January 2022

Demanda Linear (Demanda) Linear (Demanda) Pronóstico

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL DOBLE
CHOCOCONO
Tao α 𝒃_𝟏 𝒃_𝟐 𝒂_𝟏
1 0.17065972 3.53951705 0.0633848067 2.8422841745

Mes Periodo Demanda S(t) S(t)²

1 0
INICIALIZACIÓN

2 0
3 0
4 9
5 56
6 48
7 111
8 96
9 88
10 81
11 0 59 3.2314913874 2.9234657264
12 1 66 13.9435 4.8041
SIMULACIÓN DEL

13 2 26 16.0011 6.7150
PRONÓSTICO

14 3 83 27.4351 10.2511
15 4 92 38.4537 15.0642
16 5 73 44.3494 20.0620
17 6 90 52.1401 25.5364
18 7 99 60.1372 31.4414
19 8 88 64.8923 37.1501
20 9 153 79.9287 44.4507
21 10 80 79.9409 50.5074
22 11 3 66.8102 53.2896
 m MAD ECM MAPE MAPE´ Sigma MAD
11 37.92 2450.43 372.70% 206.95% Sigma ECM

Pronóstico eT IeTI et2 APE APE´

180

160

140

120

100
f(x) = 3.295
80 R² = 0.2613

60

40
3.60 62.40 62.40 3893.40 94.54% 1731.86%
24.96 1.04 1.04 1.07 3.99% 4.15% 20
27.20 55.80 55.80 3113.86 67.23% 205.17% 0
48.16 43.84 43.84 1922.37 47.66% 91.05% 0

66.66 6.34 6.34 40.24 8.69% 9.52%

73.63 16.37 16.37 267.83 18.18% 22.23%
84.22 14.78 14.78 218.50 14.93% 17.55%
94.74 -6.74 6.74 45.40 7.66% 7.11%
98.34 54.66 54.66 2987.37 35.72% 55.58%
122.71 -42.71 42.71 1823.91 53.38% 34.80%
115.43 -112.43 112.43 12640.74 3747.70% 97.40%
83.11 Pronóstico en tiempo real
 47.52 α MAD α ECM
49.50 0.3 0.19385152

CHOCOCONO
180

160

140

120

100
f(x) = 3.29587803500847 x + 25.7792207792208
80 R² = 0.261366721373252

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Demanda Linear (Demanda) Pronóstico

 ACETAMINOFÉN 500 MG
PRONÓSTICO PROMEDIO MÓVIL
Item Ref
PARÁMETROS (N)
6 PRONÓSTICO

MES DEMANDA PROM MÓVIL (Mt) e

May 2020 107

June 2020 226

DATOS DE INICIO
July 2020 328
August 2020 232
September 2020 209
October 2020 70
November 2020 136
December 2020 187
January 2021 92
February 2021 201
March 2021 163
April 2021 187 Err:502 Err:502
May 2021 177 Err:502 Err:502
June 2021 246 Err:502 Err:502
July 2021 268 Err:502 Err:502
SIMULACIÓN

August 2021 179 Err:502 Err:502

September 2021 184 Err:502 Err:502
October 2021 174 Err:502 Err:502
November 2021 209 Err:502 Err:502
December 2021 308 Err:502 Err:502
January 2022 355 Err:502 Err:502
February 2022 3 Err:502 Err:502

CV 0.428
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 82.593
DEMANDA PROMEDIO 192.773
PATRÓN ESTACIONARIA O PERPETUA
 MAD MAPE MAPE' ECM
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

lel lel/xt lel/x^t e² ACETAMINOFÉN 500 MG

400

350

300

250

200
f(x) = 0.0377701177121269 x − 1479.39794184328
R² = 0.00817937387954748
150

100

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

50
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 0
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 May 2020 October 2020 March 2021 August 2021 Jan

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Demanda Linear (Demanda) Pronóstico

Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
ÉN 500 MG

28

021 August 2021 January 2022

r (Demanda) Pronóstico
ACETAMINOFÉN 500 MG

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

Item
PARÁMETROS (α)
0.01 PRONÓSTICO

MES PER. T DEMANDA SES e

May 2020 107

June 2020 226
DATOS DE INICIO

July 2020 328

August 2020 232
September 2020 209
October 2020 70
November 2020 136
December 2020 187
January 2021 92
February 2021 201
March 2021 163
April 2021 0 187 177.36 9.64
May 2021 1 177 177.46 -0.46
June 2021 2 246 177.46 68.54
July 2021 3 268 178.14 89.86
SIMULACIÓN

August 2021 4 179 179.04 -0.04

September 2021 5 184 179.04 4.96
October 2021 6 174 179.09 -5.09
November 2021 7 209 179.04 29.96
December 2021 8 308 179.34 128.66
January 2022 9 355 180.62 174.38
February 2022 10 3 182.37 -179.37
11 PRONÓSTICO
Sumatorias
Desv. Est.
 MAD MAPE MAPE' ECM
62.81 5.60 0.35 8449.84

lel lel/xt lel/x^t e²

ACETAMINOFÉN 500
400

350

300

250

200
f(x) = 0.0377701177121269 x − 1479.39794184328
R² = 0.00817937387954748
150

100
9.64 0.05 0.05 92.86
50
0.46 0.00 0.00 0.21
68.54 0.28 0.39 4698.36 0
May 2020 November 2020 May 2021
89.86 0.34 0.50 8074.67
0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 Demanda Lin
4.96 0.03 0.03 24.61 Linear (Demanda) Pro
5.09 0.03 0.03 25.89
29.96 0.14 0.17 897.74
128.66 0.42 0.72 16554.07
174.38 0.49 0.97 30406.98
179.37 59.79 0.98 32172.80
PRONÓSTICO EN TIEMPO REAL
690.96 61.57 3.84 92948.19
Desv. Est. 78.73 91.92
 ACETAMINOFÉN 500 MG

7121269 x − 1479.39794184328
7954748

vember 2020 May 2021 November 2021

Demanda Linear (Demanda)

Linear (Demanda) Pronóstico
 X RAY DOL
PRONÓSTICO PROMEDIO MÓVIL
Item Ref
PARÁMETROS (N)
6 PRONÓSTICO

MES DEMANDA PROM MÓVIL (Mt) e

May 2020 36
June 2020 24

DATOS DE INICIO
July 2020 60
August 2020 24
September 2020 24
October 2020 0
November 2020 24
December 2020 12
January 2021 36
February 2021 24
March 2021 0
April 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
May 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
June 2021 12 Err:502 Err:502
July 2021 12 Err:502 Err:502
SIMULACIÓN

August 2021 24 Err:502 Err:502

September 2021 60 Err:502 Err:502
October 2021 48 Err:502 Err:502
November 2021 60 Err:502 Err:502
December 2021 60 Err:502 Err:502
January 2022 72 Err:502 Err:502
February 2022 0 Err:502 Err:502

CV 0.835
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 23.241
DEMANDA PROMEDIO 27.818
PATRÓN ESTACIONARIA O PERPETUA
 MAD MAPE MAPE' ECM
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
X RAY DOL
lel lel/xt lel/x^t e² 80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
May 2020 October 2020 March 2021 August 2021 Ja

Demanda Linear (Demanda) Pronóstico

Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Y DOL

2021 August 2021 January 2022

ear (Demanda) Pronóstico

X RAY DOL

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

Item
PARÁMETROS (α)
0.01 PRONÓSTICO

MES PER. T DEMANDA SES e

May 2020 36
June 2020 24
DATOS DE INICIO

July 2020 60
August 2020 24
September 2020 24
October 2020 0
November 2020 24
December 2020 12
January 2021 36
February 2021 24
March 2021 0
April 2021 0 0 24.00 -24.00
May 2021 1 0 23.76 -23.76
June 2021 2 12 23.52 -11.52
July 2021 3 12 23.41 -11.41
SIMULACIÓN

August 2021 4 24 23.29 0.71

September 2021 5 60 23.30 36.70
October 2021 6 48 23.67 24.33
November 2021 7 60 23.91 36.09
December 2021 8 60 24.27 35.73
January 2022 9 72 24.63 47.37
February 2022 10 0 25.10 -25.10
11 PRONÓSTICO
Sumatorias
Desv. Est.
 MAD MAPE MAPE' ECM
25.16 #DIV/0! 1.05 799.64

lel lel/xt lel/x^t e²

X RAY DOL
80

70

60

50

40
f(x) = 0.0274343418266573 x − 1186.76372864035
30 R² = 0.0544979849586955
20
24.00 #DIV/0! 1.00 576.00
10
23.76 #DIV/0! 1.00 564.54
11.52 0.96 0.49 132.77 0
May 2020 November 2020 May 2021
11.41 0.95 0.49 130.12
0.71 0.03 0.03 0.50 Demanda Lin
36.70 0.61 1.58 1346.88 Linear (Demanda) Pro
24.33 0.51 1.03 592.09
36.09 0.60 1.51 1302.45
35.73 0.60 1.47 1276.53
47.37 0.66 1.92 2244.04
25.10 #DIV/0! 1.00 630.13
PRONÓSTICO EN TIEMPO REAL
276.72 #DIV/0! 11.52 8796.05
Desv. Est. 31.53 28.28
 X RAY DOL

266573 x − 1186.76372864035
86955

ember 2020 May 2021 November 2021

Demanda Linear (Demanda)

Linear (Demanda) Pronóstico
 DICLOFENACO 75 MG 3 ML
PRONÓSTICO PROMEDIO MÓVIL
Item Ref
PARÁMETROS (N)
6 PRONÓSTICO

MES DEMANDA PROM MÓVIL (Mt) e

May 2020 0
June 2020 26

DATOS DE INICIO
July 2020 0
August 2020 12
September 2020 0
October 2020 0
November 2020 0
December 2020 0
January 2021 0
February 2021 0
March 2021 15
April 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
May 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
June 2021 82 Err:502 Err:502
July 2021 148 Err:502 Err:502
SIMULACIÓN

August 2021 37 Err:502 Err:502

September 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
October 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
November 2021 0 Err:502 Err:502
December 2021 10 Err:502 Err:502
January 2022 120 Err:502 Err:502
February 2022 29 Err:502 Err:502

CV 1.900
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 41.377
DEMANDA PROMEDIO 21.773
PATRÓN ERRATICA
 MAD MAPE MAPE' ECM
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502

lel lel/xt lel/x^t e²

Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502

Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 0.00 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
 DICLOFENACO 75 MG 3 ML

CROSTO
Mes Demanda (Xt) Cálculo n0 Cálculo n0 (2) Contador nt
May 2020 0 1
June 2020 26 1 1
July 2020 0 2 0
August 2020 12 1 2
September 2020 0 2 0
October 2020 0 3 0
November 2020 0 4 0
December 2020 0 5 0
January 2021 0 6 0
February 2021 0 7 0
March 2021 15 1 7
April 2021 0 2
May 2021 0 3
June 2021 82 1
July 2021 148 1
August 2021 37 1
September 2021 0 2
October 2021 0 3
November 2021 0 4
December 2021 10 1
January 2022 120 1
February 2022 29 1
CROSTON
n^t z^t Pronóstico et |et| et2 MAD

3.333 17.6667
3.3333 17.6667 5.3 -5.3 5.3 28.09 DESVIACIÓN
3.3100 17.7800 5.3 -5.3 5.3 28.09 41.533
3.2869 17.6022 5.371601208459 76.628399 76.628399 5871.9115 51.917
3.2640 17.4262 5.355258754449 142.64474 142.64474 20347.522 Alfa
3.2640 17.4262 5.338851867522 31.661148 31.661148 1002.4283 0.01
3.2640 17.4262 5.338851867522 -5.3388519 5.3388519 28.503339
3.2640 17.4262 5.338851867522 -5.3388519 5.3388519 28.503339
3.2414 17.2519 5.338851867522 -5.3388519 5.3388519 28.503339
3.2190 17.0794 5.322380999373 4.677619 4.677619 21.88012
3.1968 16.9086 5.305846611715 114.69415 114.69415 13154.749
3.1968 16.9086 5.28924917627 23.710751 23.710751 562.1997
5.28924917627
 ECM
CROSTON
160

140

120

100

80

60

DESVIACIÓN 40
4107.429
20
64.089
Alfa 0
0.01 December 2019 June 2020 January 2021 July 2021 Feb

DEMANDA SEMANA
ON

July 2021 February 2022 August 2022

SEMANA