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Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.,
Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed
securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does
not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general
information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity. 1
Economic commentary
Construction Put In Place – Annualized and Seasonally Adjusted (through January 2022)
$1,000
According to the U.S.
$900 Census Bureau, January
$838.9
2022 construction spending
$800 totaled $1,677.3 billion, up by
$838.4
8.2% YoY
Billions of Dollars
$300
$200
$100
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Residential Non-residential
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (through February 2022)
70.0
The U.S. manufacturing PMI
increased to 58.6 in
65.0
February, remaining above
50.0 for the 21st consecutive
ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
60.0 month
58.6
An index value over 50.0
55.0 indicates expansion in the
manufacturing sector
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Management, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2
Economic commentary (continued…)
U.S. Capacity Utilization (through March 5, 2022)
2,000 90.0%
U.S. steel production
1,800 decreased throughout
75.0% February with capacity
1,600 utilization at 80.0%, down
from 81.1% in January
1,400
60.0%
800
30.0%
600
400
15.0%
200
0 0.0%
Feb-21 May-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22
Tota l P roduction Capacity Utilization
Oil & Gas Drilling Activity – U.S. 1 (through March 11, 2022)
100.0% 2,250
90.0%
2,000
80.0%
1,750
70.0%
1,500
Oil vs. Gas (Rig Count)
60.0%
% of Total Rig Count
1,250
50.0%
1,000
40.0%
750
30.0%
20.0% 500
10.0% 250
0.0% 0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
% Horizontal % Vertical Oil Gas
3
Industry fundamentals
Steel Prices (through February 2022)
Steel HRC CRC HDG Plate Rebar Merchant
$2,000 $1,250
$1,750
$1,000
$1,500
$1,250
$750
U.S. $ / ton
U.S. $ / ton
$1,000
$500
$750
$500
$250
$250
$0 $0
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22
HRC CRC HDG Plate Rebar Merchant
$5.00 $15.00
$4.00 $12.00
$3.00 $9.00
U.S. $ / lb
U.S. $ / lb
$2.00 $6.00
$1.00 $3.00
$0.00 $0.00
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22
Aluminum Copper Zinc Nickel
4
Industry fundamentals (continued…)
Monthly Steel Production (LTM through January 2022)
180 ,00 0
160 ,00 0
Monthly Production ('000s Tons)
140 ,00 0
120 ,00 0
100 ,00 0
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jan-19 May-19 Sep -19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep -20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep -21 Jan-22
U.S . China Rest of World
MSCI Ending Inventories & Average Daily Shipments (through February 2022)
10,000 300 .0
250 .0
8,000
Ending Inventory ('000s Tons)
200 .0
6,000
150 .0
4,000
100 .0
2,000
50.0
0 0.0
Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22
5
Industry fundamentals (continued…)
Ferrous Monthly Scrap Net Exports 1 Non-Ferrous Monthly Scrap Net Exports 1
$800 $400
$351.6
$700
$300 $200.2
$600
U.S. $ in Millions
$500
U.S. $ in Millions
$200
$400.5
$400
$100
$300
$200
$0
$100 ($23.7)
$0 ($100)
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
Ferrous Scrap
Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap
$500 $10.00
$400 $8.00
$300 $6.00
U.S. $ / ton
U.S. $ / lb
$200 $4.00
$100 $2.00
$0 $0.00
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22
Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap
6
Select KeyBanc Capital Markets equity research
KeyBanc Capital Markets’ top-ranked 1 equity research team covers numerous companies across the Metals and Mining
sector. Selected recent research notes are provided below. Click on the respective ‘tear out’ to read the entire note.
Nickel Alloys /
Carbon Steel
Aerospace
Steel
1KeyBanc Capital Markets’ Industrial Research platform has consistently achieved a Top 3 ranking in Greenwich Associates annual survey of small / mid-cap fund
managers. In its June 2019 Analyst Awards, ThomsonReuters recognized Phil Gibbs as the #1 earnings estimator in the Metals & Mining sector
7
Capital markets update
Index Performance (through March 11, 2022)
(25.0%)
Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22
Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500
Investment Grade and High Yield Bond Spreads (through March 11, 2022)
1,400
1,200
Bond spreads widened
across all ratings last
1,000 month, driven primarily by
Spread to Maturity (Basis Points)
600
492
400
336
200 197
139
0
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
A Index BBB Index BB Index B Index
Source: Capital IQ
8
Capital markets update (continued…)
Current Rate Snapshot (as of March 14, 2022) USD Swap Curve Activity 1 (as of March 14, 2022)
9
Select recent transaction activity
Acquirer Target
Closed Highlights
(Parent) (Seller)
▪ AZZ has announced it will acquire Precoat Metals for ~9.4x LTM EBITDA of
$137 million, or ~$1.3 billion
Precoat Metals
Pending AZZ Inc. (NYSE:AZZ) ▪ The acquisition advances AZZ’s strategy of becoming predominantly a metal
(Sequa Corporation)
coatings company, expanding the Company’s position across the metal coating
value chain and will enhance the Company’s scale and margin profile
Integrated Metal ▪ Integrated Metal Recycling (‘IMR’) has acquired Société des Métaux Recyclés
Recycling (‘SMR’)
Société des Métaux
3/3/2022 (Triple M Metal & ▪ The transaction provides IMR with additional ferrous and non-ferrous scrap
Recyclés (SMR)
ArcelorMittal Long recycling capacity, allowing the Company to unlock incremental market share
Products) and scale in the Montreal metal recycling market
10
Select recent transaction activity
Acquirer Target
Closed Highlights
(Parent) (Seller)
Can Art Aluminum ▪ TorQuest Partners has established a continuation fund to acquire a controlling
Extrusion interest in Can Art Aluminum Extrusion from TorQuest Partners Fund IV
2/17/2022 TorQuest Partners
(TorQuest Partners ▪ The transaction extends TorQuest’s investment in the Company, allowing the
Fund IV) firm to capitalize on attractive secular trends
11
Recent capital markets activity
3/11/2022 Nucor (NYSE:NUE) $550 million Senior Notes ▪ The proceeds will be used to redeem outstanding 4.125% Notes due 2022 and
4.000% Notes due 2023, pay transaction fees and expenses and for general
corporate purposes
3/11/2022 Nucor (NYSE:NUE) $550 million Senior Notes ▪ The proceeds will be used to redeem outstanding 4.125% Notes due 2022 and
4.000% Notes due 2023, pay transaction fees and expenses and for general
corporate purposes
12
Metals public operating & trading statistics
$ in millions, except per share data Prices
as of Market Enterprise LTM CY 2022 LTM CY 2022
Company Ticker 3/11/2022 Cap Value Sales EBITDA % Margin EPS EBITDA EPS EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio
ArcelorMittal S.A. ENXTAM:MT $30.32 $27,571 $33,839 $76,571 $10,901 14.2% $13.44 $14,662 $10.56 NM 2.3x 2.3x 2.9x
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional BOVESPA:CSNA3 5.13 7,078 9,629 9,079 4,404 48.5% 2.78 3,392 1.07 2.2x 1.8x 2.8x 4.8x
International Producers
Gerdau S.A. BOVESPA:GGBR4 5.99 10,215 11,695 15,526 4,491 28.9% 1.76 3,294 1.13 2.6x 3.4x 3.6x 5.3x
Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. NYSEAM:SIM 28.56 4,404 3,684 2,652 693 26.1% 2.94 683 NA 5.3x 9.7x 5.4x NA
Public Joint Stock Company Severstal LSE:SVST 0.06 50 1,592 10,094 5,220 51.7% 4.06 4,505 3.59 0.3x 0.0x 0.4x 0.0x
SSAB AB (publ) OM:SSAB A 6.31 6,497 6,101 9,872 2,275 23.0% 1.47 1,934 1.21 2.7x 4.3x 3.2x 5.2x
Tata Steel Limited 500470 16.98 20,406 26,274 26,813 5,479 20.4% 1.79 6,046 2.62 4.8x 9.5x 4.3x 6.5x
thyssenkrupp AG XTRA:TKA 9.56 5,951 3,542 39,103 2,310 5.9% 0.62 2,213 1.85 1.5x 15.5x 1.6x 5.2x
Average $10,272 $12,044 $23,714 $4,472 27.4% $4,591 2.8x 5.8x 2.9x 4.3x
Median $6,788 $7,865 $12,810 $4,447 24.6% $3,343 2.6x 3.8x 3.0x 5.2x
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF $25.86 $13,023 $18,625 $18,307 $5,746 31.4% $6.17 $4,341 $5.41 NM 4.2x 4.3x 4.8x
Domestic Produce
Commercial Metals Company CMC 40.43 4,955 5,605 7,320 925 12.6% 4.70 942 4.32 6.1x 8.6x 5.9x 9.4x
Nucor Corporation NUE 135.25 37,115 40,770 36,484 10,183 27.9% 23.44 8,693 19.86 4.0x 5.8x 4.7x 6.8x
Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD 72.12 14,312 16,190 18,409 4,678 25.4% 15.67 3,900 13.67 3.5x 4.6x 4.2x 5.3x
United States Steel Corporation X 33.34 8,839 10,301 20,275 5,592 27.6% 14.48 4,296 10.04 1.8x 2.3x 2.4x 3.3x
Average $15,649 $18,298 $20,159 $5,425 25.0% $4,434 3.8x 5.1x 4.3x 5.9x
Median $13,023 $16,190 $18,409 $5,592 27.6% $4,434 3.8x 4.6x 4.3x 5.3x
Olympic Steel, Inc. ZEUS $29.24 $343 $661 $2,312 $212 9.2% $11.78 $197 $3.49 3.1x 2.5x 3.4x 8.4x
Service Centers /
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS 188.23 9,474 10,828 14,093 2,181 15.5% 22.02 2,021 20.29 5.0x 8.5x 5.4x 9.3x
Processors
Russel Metals Inc. TSX:RUS 24.62 1,559 1,772 3,310 524 15.8% 5.44 281 2.51 3.4x 4.5x 6.3x 9.8x
Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI 31.69 1,217 1,812 5,675 492 8.7% 5.34 0 4.18 3.7x 5.9x NA 7.6x
Worthington Industries, Inc. WOR 58.54 2,947 3,577 4,081 677 16.6% 8.80 388 5.36 5.3x 6.7x 9.2x 10.9x
Average $3,108 $3,730 $5,894 $817 13.1% $577 4.1x 5.6x 6.1x 9.2x
Median $1,559 $1,812 $4,081 $524 15.5% $281 3.7x 5.9x 5.8x 9.3x
Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 49.41 1,465 1,710 3,065 327 10.7% 7.01 295 5.96 5.2x 7.1x 5.8x 8.3x
Sims Limited ASX:SGM 14.94 2,872 2,808 5,656 617 10.9% 2.35 375 1.53 4.5x 6.4x 7.5x 9.8x
Average $1,624 $1,687 $3,013 $315 7.4% $335 4.9x 6.7x 6.6x 9.0x
Median $1,465 $1,710 $3,065 $327 10.7% $335 4.9x 6.7x 6.6x 9.0x
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated ATI $26.50 $3,372 $4,674 $2,800 $273 9.7% $0.18 $413 $0.95 17.1x NM 11.3x 27.9x
Specialty Metals & Alloys
Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS 34.85 1,682 2,280 1,557 (26) (1.7%) (2.67) 246 1.08 NM NM 9.3x NM
Haynes International, Inc. HAYN 41.79 535 529 365 27 7.5% 0.32 57 2.41 19.4x NM 9.2x 17.3x
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU 87.18 1,410 2,143 2,937 214 7.3% 1.88 239 3.81 10.0x NM 9.0x 22.9x
Materion Corporation MTRN 87.03 1,813 2,264 1,656 172 10.4% 11.51 197 5.00 13.2x 7.6x 11.5x 17.4x
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. USAP 9.33 83 152 156 14 9.0% (0.97) 22 0.01 10.8x NM 6.9x NM
Average $1,483 $2,007 $1,578 $112 7.0% $196 14.1x 7.6x 9.5x 21.4x
Median $1,546 $2,204 $1,606 $99 8.2% $218 13.2x 7.6x 9.3x 20.1x
13
Metals public credit statistics
$ in millions
Total Net Total Debt / Net Debt / Total Debt / Net Debt / EBITDA /
Company Ticker Debt Debt EBITDA EBITDA Cap (book) Cap (book) Interest
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional BOVESPA:CSNA3 6,899 1,881 1.6x 0.4x 61.6% 16.8% 11.1x
Select Global Producers
Gerdau S.A. BOVESPA:GGBR4 2,782 1,437 0.6x 0.3x 24.8% 12.8% 15.8x
Public Joint Stock Company Severstal LSE:SVST 1,815 1,526 0.3x 0.3x 29.8% 25.0% NM
Tata Steel Limited 500470 6,457 5,254 1.2x 1.0x 35.1% 28.6% 6.8x
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF $5,350 $5,308 0.9x 0.9x 57.2% 56.8% 17.0x
Domestic Produce
Commercial Metals Company CMC 1,065 650 1.2x 0.7x 30.0% 18.3% 19.0x
Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD 3,106 1,862 2.7x 1.6x 33.0% 19.8% 19.8x
United States Steel Corporation X 3,891 1,369 0.7x 0.2x 30.2% 10.6% 9.3x
Olympic Steel, Inc. ZEUS $328 $318 1.5x 1.5x 43.6% 42.3% NM
Service Centers /
Processors
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS 1,647 1,347 0.8x 0.6x 21.3% 17.4% NM
Russel Metals Inc. TSX:RUS 318 213 0.6x 0.4x 24.5% 16.4% NM
Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI 879 828 1.8x 1.7x 61.7% 60.3% 9.6x
Worthington Industries, Inc. WOR 702 477 1.0x 0.7x 33.4% 22.7% NM
Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 260 241 0.8x 0.7x 23.0% 21.3% NM
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated ATI $1,843 $1,155 NM 4.2x 72.9% 45.7% 2.8x
Specialty Metals & Alloys
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU 1,036 733 4.9x 3.4x 59.9% 42.4% 4.3x
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. USAP 69 69 4.9x 4.9x 23.4% 23.4% 7.1x
14
Select transaction experience
Deal Value
Client Business Description ($ mm) Type Closed
Manufacturer of steel joist and deck for applications in Senior Secured Credit
Canam Steel Corporation $425 Mar-22
non-residential construction Facilities
PCH, LLC -
PCH, LLC Toll-processor of aluminum and light-gauge steel coil $50+ Debt Advisor Nov-21
VORTEQ Coil Finishers
VORTEQ Coil Finishers Toll-processor of aluminum and light-gauge steel coil ND Sell-Side Advisor Nov-21
The North American Coal Miner of steam and met coal for power generation and Senior Secured Revolving
$120 Nov-21
Corporation steel production Credit Facility
Olympic Steel Inc. Value-added processor and distributor of metals $475 ABL Financing Jun-21
Ryerson Inc. Value-added processor and distributor of metals $107 Sale-Leaseback Jun-21
Manufacturer of steel joist and deck for applications in Senior Secured Credit
Canam Steel Corporation $140 Mar-21
non-residential construction Facilities
For additional information, contact the KeyBanc Capital Markets Metals & Mining Team:
Eric Klenz Arindam Basu Barry Stormer David “Dee” Gose Nicholas Kuhn
216.689.3974 216.689.4262 216.689.7921 216.689.7831 216.689.5113
eklenz@key.com abasu@key.com barry.a.stormer@key.com david.w.goseiii@key.com nicholas.j.kuhn@key.com
Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.,
Member FINRA/SIPC and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed
securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does
not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general
information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity. 15