FICC Research

Credit Strategy
23 October 2023

EM Credit Strategy

Emerging Markets Credit Monitor

CORE
We summarise performance and valuations, and highlight trade
opportunities and dislocations across sovereign, quasi-
sovereign, and corporate bonds in Asia, Emerging Europe, the Fabian Herold
+44 (0)20 7773 0753
Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. fabian.herold@barclays.com
Barclays, UK

• Switch from LBTCOR 10.875% 2031s into CWCLN 6.875% 2027s: Within the Liberty Latin Stefan Styk
America complex, we recommend switching into the unsecured C&W bond following its +1 212 526 4856
stefan.styk@barclays.com
recent underperformance versus the Liberty Costa Rica bond, and also against broader LatAm
BCI, US
Bs. The unsecured C&W bond now has an OAS of 620bp, which is 10bp wide of the LBTCOR,
compared to 115bp tight on average since January 2023. Furthermore, versus LatAm Bs, C&W
has historically traded 145bp tight over the past year but is now just 20bp tight. Against Costa
Rica, we prefer C&W’s slightly shorter duration at 3.2 years versus 4.7 years at LBTCOR, as well
as more diversified operations in 22 countries versus one. C&W is also a more liquid bond
given the larger size outstanding as well as EBITDA at C&W nearly 6x the size of Costa Rica. We
anticipate that the unsecured C&W bond will outperform after earnings in early November.

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the
independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail
investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its
own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests
may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.
Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 16.
Completed: 23-Oct-23, 16:19 GMT Released: 23-Oct-23, 16:23 GMT Restricted - External
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

EM credit at a glance
FIGURE 1. Global EM USD aggregate: spread history FIGURE 2. Global EM USD aggregate by region

750 bp 1,300 EM USD Aggregate: LATAM

1,200 EM USD Aggregate: EMEA
650 1,100 EM USD Aggregate: Asia
1,000
550
900
450 800
700
350 600
500
250 400
300
150
200
2020 2021 2022 2023 100
+/-1 Stdev EM USD Aggregate 3mma Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22

Note: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standard
deviation.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 3. Global EM USD Aggregate vs. US credit FIGURE 4. Largest contributors/detractors to index 12m returns

900 EM USD Aggregate US BB US BBB

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100
2019 2020 2021 2022

Note: Top 10 countries shown. Each country’s contribution to index returns (not the
country return) from the end of the previous year’s month.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 2
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 5. Differentials vs. US credit by rating over past 4 years FIGURE 6. Total returns for global credit

1M 3M 6M 1Y YTD

EUR HY -1.5% 0.1% 2.0% 10.7% 5.3%

Current differential within 4y range

Δ
US HY -2.7% -2.3% 0.0% 7.6% 3.9%

Δ
EUR IG -0.8% -0.7% 0.2% 4.6% 2.1%

Δ
EM USD Corp-Quasi -2.4% -3.4% -2.7% 7.1% -0.4%

Δ
EM USD Agg -3.6% -5.1% -3.1% 7.6% -1.3%

Δ
EM USD Sov -4.8% -6.7% -3.2% 8.9% -1.9%

Δ
US IG -3.8% -5.5% -5.6% 3.9% -2.3%

Δ
A BBB BB B

Note: Best- and worst-performing asset class in each period highlighted. In

respective currency.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 3
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

EM sovereigns
FIGURE 7. Global EM USD sovereigns: spread history FIGURE 8. Largest contributors/detractors to index 12m returns

950
850
750
650
550
450
350
250
150
2020 2021 2022 2023
+/-1 Stdev EM Sovereigns 3mma

Note: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standard Note: Top 10 countries shown. Each country’s contribution to index returns (not the
deviation. country return) from the end of the previous year’s month.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 9. Sovereign spread vs rating (10y in blue, 30y in grey) FIGURE 10. Sovereign bonds versus CDS basis

Country BOND CDS BASIS 4WK Δ 1Y HISTORY

500
BRAZIL 87 193 106 21

400 MEXICO 91 134 43 14

DOMREP 266 287 21 17
300
TURKEY 354 429 75 25
200 INDONESIA 77 102 25 13
PHILIPPINES 70 93 23 5
100
S.AFRICA 290 297 7 14
0 CHILE 73 81 8 1
QATAR
CHILE
KOREA

MEX
URUGUA

BRAZIL
INDON

COLOM
SOAF

TURKEY
ADGB

KSA
MALAYS
PERU

COLOMBIA 278 245 -33 5

AA A BBB BB B

Note: Basis is CDS minus cash spread. 5y CDS used.

Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 4
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 11. Corps, quasis, and sovereigns: average spreads today

BB BBB A Sovereign

TURKEY
MEXICO

RUSSIA
COLOM

BRAZIL
ALL EM

INDON

CHINA
CHILE
INDIA

PERU
UAE
USA
EUR

Note: Scale is logarithmic. Sovereign duration is matched to those of corporates of the same country.
Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 5
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

EM sovereigns: Performance chips and relative value

FIGURE 12. We separate sovereigns into low- to high-beta categories based on their current spreads: current spread, w/w and YTD changes, and one-year range of 10y benchmark bonds

MALAYS 41 ADGB 42 QATAR 46 ISRAEL 124 UAE 50 URUGUA 50 KSA 80

W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
LOW BETA

LOW BETA
-2 -2 -9 -31 -6 -19 -5 +57 -9 -19 -2 -26 -8 -21

PHILIP 90 DUGB 68 CHILE 91 INDON 93 PERU 119 MEX 153 BERMUD 151

W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
-4 -19 -10 -19 -7 -50 -6 -33 -10 -63 -5 -31 -7 +13

PARGUY 188 PANAMA 173 MOROC 205 REPHUN 169 GUATEM 240 AZERBJ 211 BRAZIL 164
LOW MID BETA

LOW MID BETA

W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
-5 +13 -9 -49 -10 -27 -7 -86 -9 +17 1 -18 -6 -74

OMAN 206 ROMANI 195 SERBIA 225 UZBEK 326 COSTAR 233 ARMEN 361 BHRAIN 317

W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
-11 -63 -8 -128 -5 -75 -10 +68 -3 -70 -5 +34 -10 -39

JORDAN 463 DOMREP 325 COLOM 321 SOAF 372 IVYCST 448 MONGOL 405 SENEGL 509
HIGH MID BETA

HIGH MID BETA

W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
-17 +52 -7 -38 -9 -50 -5 +25 -10 +31 -3 -47 -10 -12

TURKEY 419 HONDUR 398 RWANDA 506 GABON 854 KENINT 799 ANGOL 872 NGERIA 739

W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
-8 -114 -4 -170 -13 -84 -9 +194 -7 +93 -12 +158 -10 -112

EGYPT 1364 ELSALV 795 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

HIGH BETA

HIGH BETA
W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD W/W YTD
-16 +520 -7 -1069 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Note: Best performing credits with respective bucket in blue, worst in red. Small chart depicts spread history.
Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 6
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 13. Price of 10y (or nearest) bonds of distressed EM sovereign FIGURE 14. Changes in prices of 10y (or nearest) bonds of distressed
credits EM sovereign credits

Cash price (10Y or nearest bond) 1Y z-score (rhs) 1W Change in price (10Y or nearest bond)
70 63 2.0 1M Change in price (10Y or nearest bond)
57 57 3M Change in price (10Y or nearest bond)
60 1.5 6
49
50 46 4
41 1.0
40 2 0.5 0.2
30 29 0.5 0
30 27 24
-2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5
0.0 -0.7
20 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8
-4 -2.2
10 7 -0.5
-6
0 -1.0 -8

Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 15. 10y benchmark bond performance matrix: low-beta sovereigns. Performance measured over past 12 months. Relationships more
than 1.5 standard deviations from the 1y mean highlighted (green = cheap, red = rich, eg, green cell indicates that ticker in left column is cheap
to ticker across top row).
URUGUA

GUATEM
PANAMA

PARGUY
ROMANI

COSTAR

BHRAIN
AZERBJ
MOROC

COLOM
SERBIA
BRAZIL
ISRAEL
PHILIP

INDON

OMAN
CHILE
DUGB

PERU

MEX
KSA

SPREAD TODAY ↓→
119

124

153

164

173

175

188

205

206

211

225

233

240

317

321
50

68

80

90

91

91

ADGB 42 -12 4 2 -4 -3 -5 -21 55 -6 -43 -8 -35 10 -5 -23 16 -8 -12 24 -12 -33

QATAR 46 -16 0 -2 -8 -7 -9 -25 51 -10 -47 -12 -39 6 -9 -27 12 -12 -16 20 -16 -37

URUGUA 50 0 16 14 8 9 7 -9 67 6 -31 4 -23 22 7 -11 28 4 0 36 -1 -21

DUGB 68 -16 0 -2 -8 -7 -9 -25 51 -10 -47 -12 -39 6 -9 -27 12 -12 -16 20 -16 -37

KSA 80 -14 2 0 -6 -5 -6 -23 54 -8 -45 -10 -37 8 -7 -25 14 -10 -14 23 -14 -35

PHILIP 90 -8 8 6 0 1 0 -17 60 -2 -39 -4 -31 14 -1 -19 20 -3 -8 29 -8 -29

CHILE 91 -9 7 5 -1 0 -1 -18 59 -3 -40 -5 -32 13 -2 -20 19 -5 -9 28 -9 -30

INDON 91 -7 9 6 0 1 0 -16 60 -1 -39 -3 -31 15 -1 -18 20 -3 -8 29 -8 -29

PERU 119 9 25 23 17 18 16 0 76 15 -22 13 -14 31 16 -2 37 13 9 45 8 -12

ISRAEL 124 -67 -51 -54 -60 -59 -60 -76 0 -61 -99 -63 -91 -45 -60 -78 -40 -63 -67 -31 -68 -89

MEX 153 -6 10 8 2 3 1 -15 61 0 -37 -2 -29 16 1 -17 22 -2 -6 30 -6 -27

BRAZIL 164 31 47 45 39 40 39 22 99 37 0 35 8 54 38 21 59 36 31 68 31 10

PANAMA 173 -4 12 10 4 5 3 -13 63 2 -35 0 -27 18 3 -15 24 0 -4 32 -4 -25

ROMANI 175 23 39 37 31 32 31 14 91 29 -8 27 0 46 30 13 51 28 23 60 23 2

PARGUY 188 -22 -6 -8 -14 -13 -15 -31 45 -16 -54 -18 -46 0 -15 -33 5 -18 -22 14 -23 -43

MOROC 205 -7 9 7 1 2 1 -16 60 -1 -38 -3 -30 15 0 -18 21 -3 -7 29 -7 -28

OMAN 206 11 27 25 19 20 18 2 78 17 -21 15 -13 33 18 0 39 15 11 47 10 -10

AZERBJ 211 -28 -12 -14 -20 -19 -20 -37 40 -22 -59 -24 -51 -5 -21 -39 0 -23 -28 9 -28 -49

SERBIA 225 -4 12 10 3 5 3 -13 63 2 -36 0 -28 18 3 -15 23 0 -4 32 -5 -26

COSTAR 233 0 16 14 8 9 8 -9 67 6 -31 4 -23 22 7 -11 28 4 0 36 0 -21

GUATEM 240 -36 -20 -23 -29 -28 -29 -45 31 -30 -68 -32 -60 -14 -29 -47 -9 -32 -36 0 -37 -58

BHRAIN 317 1 16 14 8 9 8 -8 68 6 -31 4 -23 23 7 -10 28 5 0 37 0 -21

COLOM 321 21 37 35 29 30 29 12 89 27 -10 25 -2 43 28 10 49 26 21 58 21

Note: Grey cells indicate lack of at least one year of data.

Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 7
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 16. 10y benchmark bond performance matrix: high-beta sovereigns. Performance measured over the past 12 months. Relationships
more than 1.5 standard deviations from the 1y mean highlighted (green = cheap, red = rich, eg, green cell indicates that ticker in left column is
cheap to ticker across top row).

HONDUR 398

BAHAMA
JORDAN
TURKEY

SENEGL

KENINT
NGERIA

ELSALV

GABON
ANGOL
IVYCST

EGYPT
SOAF

1364
SPREAD TODAY ↓→
354

419

448

463

509

704

739

795

799

846

868
DOMREP 325 32 -139 -74 14 96 -3 -127 -72 -646 46 147 188 249

UZBEK 326 4 -167 -103 -14 68 -31 -155 -100 -675 18 118 160 220

SOAF 354 0 -171 -106 -18 64 -35 -159 -104 -678 14 114 156 216

HONDUR 398 171 0 65 153 235 136 12 67 -507 185 285 327 388

TURKEY 419 106 -65 0 88 170 71 -53 3 -572 120 221 262 323

IVYCST 448 18 -153 -88 0 82 -17 -141 -86 -660 32 132 174 234

JORDAN 463 -64 -235 -170 -82 0 -99 -223 -168 -742 -50 51 92 153

SENEGL 509 35 -136 -71 17 99 0 -124 -68 -643 49 150 191 252

BAHAMA 704 159 -12 53 141 223 124 0 55 -519 173 274 315 376

NGERIA 739 104 -67 -3 86 168 68 -55 0 -575 117 218 260 320

ELSALV 795 678 507 572 660 742 643 519 575 0 692 793 834 895

KENINT 799 -14 -185 -120 -32 50 -49 -173 -117 -692 0 101 142 203

ANGOL 846 -114 -285 -221 -132 -51 -150 -274 -218 -793 -101 0 42 102

GABON 868 -156 -327 -262 -174 -92 -191 -315 -260 -834 -142 -42 0 60

EGYPT 1364 -216 -388 -323 -234 -153 -252 -376 -320 -895 -203 -102 -60 0

Note: Grey cells indicate lack of at least one year of data.

Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 8
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

EM corporates & quasi sovereigns

FIGURE 17. Global EM USD Corps + Quasi: Spread history FIGURE 18. Largest contributors/detractors to index 12m returns

650

550

450

350

250

150
2020 2021 2022 2023
+/-1 Stdev EM corps/quasis 3mma

Note: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standard Note: Top 10 countries shown. Each country’s contribution to index returns (not the
deviation. country return) from the end of the previous year’s month.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 19. Global average spread of corps/quasis vs. sovereign FIGURE 20. EM corp/quasi spread ratio v US: rating matched basis

2.5
160 bp

140

120 2.0

100

80
1.5
60

40

20 1.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0
2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: This is the median differential of all corporates and quasi sovereigns versus
their rating and tenor matched sovereign bond. Includes corps/quasis within 1y
maturity and two rating notches to sov. Includes new issues as they come.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 9
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 21. EM corporate/quasi versus US differentials: ratings matched basis

Composition Spread Equiv. US bp discount x discount 5Y Chart
BRAZIL BBB #NAME?
BB < 313 263 50 1.2
CHILE >A #NAME? BBB B< 198 142 56 1.4
CHINA >A #NAME? BBB B< 228 144 84 1.6
COLOMBIA BB #NAME?
BB <B 463 316 147 1.5
INDONESIA #NAME?
BBB BB < 203 177 26 1.1
KAZAKHSTAN #NAME?
BBB 272 190 82 1.4
MEXICO >A BBB #NAME? BB <B 442 302 140 1.5
PERU BBB#NAME? BB <B 340 221 119 1.5
QATAR #NAME?
>A B 112 88 23 1.3
TURKEY BB #NAME?
<B 375 495 -119 0.8
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES >A #NAME? BBB B< 129 113 17 1.1
GLOBAL EM CORPS >A #NAME?
BBB BB <B 266 197 69 1.4

Note: We calculate the “equivalent US spread” by weighting the spread of US credit segments (from AAA to CCC) at each point in time (dynamically) to match each EM
country’s composition.
Source: Barclays Research

Cheapest and richest quasi and corp bond to sovereigns

FIGURE 22. Cheapest quasi-sovereigns vs their sovereigns (1y z-score FIGURE 23. Richest quasi-sovereigns vs their sovereigns (1y z-score
level) level)
BOND OAS METRICS BOND OAS METRICS
QUASI SOV QUASI SOV DIFF Δ Z 1Y RANGE QUASI SOV QUASI SOV DIFF Δ Z 1Y RANGE
CDEL 4.25 2042 CHILE 3.625 2042 192 122 71 24 2.8 SABIC 3 2050 KSA 5.25 2050 61 163 -102 -51 -4.4
CDEL 4.5 2047 CHILE 3.86 2047 197 119 77 26 2.5 OILGAS 8.375 2028 BHRAIN 7 2028 259 236 23 -52 -2.6
ECOPET 4.125 2025 COLOM 4.5 2026 175 151 24 22 2.2 GULINT 2.375 2025 BHRAIN 6.875 2025 120 157 -37 -64 -2.5
CDEL 3.15 2030 CHILE 3.24 2028 174 73 101 23 2.1 ARAMCO 3.25 2050 KSA 5.25 2050 139 163 -24 -13 -2.5
DPWDU 5.625 2048 DUGB 5.25 2043 198 133 65 9 2.0 KORGAS 1.125 2026 KOREA 2.75 2027 67 24 42 -27 -2.2
QPETRO 3.125 2041 QATAR 5.75 2042 128 89 39 34 1.8 ARAMCO 3.5 2029 KSA 4.375 2029 92 83 9 -28 -2.2
PETMK 4.5 2045 MALAYS 4.236 2045 111 47 64 -12 1.8 MUBAUH 6.875 2041 ADGB 4.125 2047 90 98 -8 -56 -2.1
PETRPE 4.75 2032 PERU 8.75 2033 559 156 404 157 1.7 SMIPIJ 2.05 2026 INDON 4.75 2026 156 33 123 1 -2.1
ISRELE 7.75 2027 ISRAEL 3.25 2028 254 110 145 12 1.6 PETBRA 6.875 2040 BRAZIL 5.625 2041 252 241 11 -39 -2.0
PETRPE 5.625 2047 PERU 5.625 2050 558 146 413 102 1.5 KORELE 1.125 2026 KOREA 2.75 2027 72 24 48 -30 -2.0

Note: For changes, blue indicates tightening, red widening. Note: For changes, blue indicates tightening, red widening.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 24. Cheapest corporates vs their sovereigns (1y z-score level) FIGURE 25. Richest corporates vs their sovereigns (1y z-score level)
BOND OAS & 1M Δ METRICS BOND OAS METRICS
CORP SOV CORP SOV DIFF Δ Z 1Y RANGE CORP SOV CORP SOV DIFF Δ Z 1Y RANGE
LVIATH 6.125 2025 ISRAEL 2.875 2026 713 85 628 305 4.3 KOREAT 2.5 2026 KOREA 2.75 2027 74 24 50 -21 -2.4
LVIATH 6.5 2027 ISRAEL 3.25 2028 650 110 540 188 4.0 MRFGBZ 7 2026 BRAZIL 6 2026 179 44 135 -149 -2.3
MVFPSO 6.748 2034 BRAZIL 8.25 2034 501 231 270 71 3.2 HYUSEC 2.125 2026 KOREA 2.75 2027 148 24 124 -16 -2.3
ENOIGA 4.875 2026 ISRAEL 2.875 2026 534 85 449 112 3.2 FERMCA 6.375 2038 MEX 6.05 2040 226 195 31 -82 -2.2
ENOIGA 5.375 2028 ISRAEL 3.25 2028 529 110 419 98 3.0 ABENGO 6.875 2043 PERU 6.55 2037 229 142 87 -39 -2.2
AICNRA 5.75 2033 COLOM 4.5 2029 728 278 450 69 2.7 KEBHNB 1.25 2026 KOREA 2.75 2027 89 24 65 -24 -2.2
BRASKM 4.5 2030 BRAZIL 4.5 2029 412 124 287 115 2.4 CENSUD 6.625 2045 CHILE 3.625 2042 172 122 50 -38 -2.0
BRASKM 4.5 2028 BRAZIL 4.625 2028 332 87 246 56 2.3 NXPI 3.25 2051 CHINA 4 2048 142 40 102 -69 -2.0
ENELIM 4 2026 CHILE 3.125 2026 175 38 137 49 2.2 TEVA 4.1 2046 ISRAEL 4.125 2048 296 156 140 -62 -2.0
IHSHLD 8 2027 NGERIA 6.5 2027 905 677 228 267 2.1 SHNHAN 1.375 2026 KOREA 2.75 2027 90 24 66 -11 -2.0

Note: For changes, blue indicates tightening, red widening. Note: For changes, blue indicates tightening, red widening.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 10
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

Global EM credit: 5/10 curves

FIGURE 26. 5/10s curves for Global EM corporates and quasi FIGURE 27. 5/10s curves for Global EM sovereigns
sovereigns
5Y 10Y 5Y 10Y
CURVE 1Y RANGE 1M 3M 6M 1Y CURVE 1Y RANGE 1M 3M 6M 1Y
SPRD SPRD SPRD SPRD
ALL CORPS* 162 225 49 -2 -2 -1 2 ALL SOV* 206 265 58 -4 -3 -5 -4
AALLN 171 221 49 -2 -1 -5 ADGB 69 79 10 -4 -1 1 -8
ADGLXY 217 317 100 -7 37 36 2 ANGOL 911 938 27 -12 -41 -55 10
AMXLMM 146 168 23 3 7 12 12 BHRAIN 270 368 98 -3 -2 19 26
BABA 121 191 70 -4 -10 -1 -21 BRAZIL 125 246 122 -11 -12 7
BIDU 134 183 49 0 2 19 59 CHILE 97 142 45 0 -5 0 -6
BRASKM 360 449 89 -1 -10 -14 COLOM 222 390 169 -3 7 30
CFELEC 167 332 165 -12 -12 13 82 DOMREP 274 331 57 -8 -8 -11 -5
CNOOC 92 148 56 1 -3 -3 -67 EGYPT 1607 1300 -308 -11 -147 -279 -296
CSNABZ 440 506 65 -10 -36 -32 23 GUATEM 234 271 37 -9 1 -7 -1
ECOPET 415 498 83 -1 13 8 INDON 105 124 19 6 -2 -7
ENOIGA 566 577 11 -38 -42 -68 KENINT 927 869 -58 -19 -16 -98 -131
ISRELE 262 306 44 0 2 5 31 KSA 99 127 28 -5 -2 -5 3
LENOVO 191 247 56 0 0 -13 -11 MOROC 194 261 67 -4 3 3
MAFUAE 151 145 -7 -19 -18 -23 NGERIA 768 814 46 -15 -13 -45 53
MUBAUH 105 123 18 -3 -12 1 -38 OMAN 214 244 30 -4 -6 -5 -16
OILGAS 280 229 -51 -15 -32 -31 PANAMA 155 223 68 -4 1 9 -1
PEMEX 643 734 92 -27 -22 -28 PARGUY 154 241 87 -1 0 23 -8
PETBRA 156 274 118 1 3 18 PERU 85 186 101 -1 9 24 -3
PETMK 93 141 48 -2 1 7 8 REPHUN 171 230 59 9 -1 15
PIFKSA 120 134 14 0 0 0 ROMANI 197 270 73 5 -6 -5
RILIN 131 180 49 -3 -3 -1 -11 SOAF 322 400 78 -8 -16 -9 -3
SECO 80 98 18 -4 -17 -25 TURKEY 389 449 60 -6 -20 -21 -8
SUZANO 192 243 52 2 -1 0 18
TAISEM 101 111 10 0 2 7 -16
TAQAUH 91 115 24 -2 7 -5
YPFDAR 1188 716 -472 -60 -341 -438 -28

Note: *Top row is a median of the individual ticker values for the corresponding Note: *Top row is a median of the individual ticker values for the corresponding
column. Blank cells where calculation was impossible due to lack of history of the column. Blank cells where calculation was impossible due to lack of history of the
used bond pair. used bond pair.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 11
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

Global EM credit: 10/ 30 curves

FIGURE 28. 10/30s curves for Global EM corporates and quasi FIGURE 29. 10/30s curves for Global EM sovereigns
sovereigns
10Y 30Y 10Y 30Y
CURVE 1Y RANGE 1M 3M 6M 1Y CURVE 1Y RANGE 1M 3M 6M 1Y
SPRD SPRD SPRD SPRD
ALL CORPS* 228 302 64 -2 -2 -3 -14 ALL SOVS* 242 319 69 -3 14 30 12
AMXLMM 168 201 33 0 1 -11 -15 ADGB 79 165 86 -4 -7 -7 -7
ARAMCO 120 204 85 -7 -4 -2 -12 ANGOL 938 946 8 -10 99 156 141
BABA 160 248 88 -8 -15 -8 -29 BHRAIN 368 473 105 -6 71 82 81
BRASKM 449 438 -11 6 -41 44 BRAZIL 246 325 78 6 5 16
BRFSBZ 448 489 41 -24 -45 -24 15 CHILE 142 195 54 -3 12 19 2
CDEL 220 287 67 1 6 COLOM 390 403 12 1 30 72
CELARA 280 327 47 9 10 -37 -30 DOMREP 331 410 80 -23 14 43 -12
CFELEC 332 406 74 -1 31 49 -28 EGYPT 1300 1274 -26 -19 56 225 12
CNOOC 148 191 43 2 8 23 25 GUATEM 271 322 51 -19 0 30 12
DPWDU 162 255 93 17 22 INDON 124 191 67 0 5 14
ECOPET 498 556 59 -9 14 103 KSA 127 230 103 1 27 36
FUNOTR 391 497 106 -2 12 -54 49 MALAYS 78 130 52 -2 -5 -17 -31
IDASAL 235 318 82 -3 -7 -13 -14 MEX 202 291 89 -1 -1 9
MUBAUH 123 183 59 -4 6 27 MOROC 261 322 61 -5 43 38
OCPMR 304 420 115 4 -2 4 -19 NGERIA 814 837 23 38 58 119 155
PEMEX 734 794 59 21 -37 72 OMAN 244 343 98 -15 17 31 -17
PERTIJ 167 242 75 2 12 6 -12 PANAMA 223 308 85 -5 7 29 12
PETMK 141 189 48 2 -6 11 -25 PARGUY 241 317 76 -4 14 18 -6
PLNIJ 194 296 103 13 14 11 11 PERU 186 206 20 4 7 9 29
PRXNA 335 404 69 -6 -12 -19 75 QATAR 82 182 100 -3 -4 -2 18
PTTGC 248 307 59 -3 -6 -19 -8 REPHUN 230 296 66 11 21 18
QPETRO 127 188 62 -5 -2 -4 -21 ROMANI 270 341 71 10 32 51
SABIC 108 114 6 -3 -16 -26 -16 SOAF 400 525 125 -13 12 61 -19
SINOPE 96 179 82 -3 -7 -11 -19 TURKEY 449 504 55 23 30 116 108
TAQAUH 115 163 48 -11 7 17 UAE 81 167 87 -1 11
TENCNT 179 260 81 -7 -11 -4 15

Note: *Top row is a median of the individual ticker values for the corresponding Note: *Top row is a median of the individual ticker values for the corresponding
column. Blank cells where calculation was impossible due to lack of history of the column. Blank cells where calculation was impossible due to lack of history of the
used bond pair. used bond pair.
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 12
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

New and existing dislocation

FIGURE 30. New and existing dislocations in LatAm
New Dislocation
Spread History (Z-Spread)
Relationship Z-Score Conclusion
6mo Chart Min Now Max
CFELEC $2051 - IENOVA $2051 56 101 101 3.7 CFELEC $2051 is CHEAP to IENOVA $2051

AMXLMM $2042 - SCCO $2042 -39 -7 -7 3.0 AMXLMM $2042 is CHEAP to SCCO $2042

CMPCCI $2027 - ENTEL $2026 -46 -46 21 3.0 CMPCCI $2027 is RICH to ENTEL $2026

PANAMA $2030 - MEX $2029 28 61 61 2.8 PANAMA $2030 is CHEAP to MEX $2029

MEXCAT $2026 - SIGMA $2026 -19 53 53 2.6 MEXCAT $2026 is CHEAP to SIGMA $2026

MEX $2027 - PANAMA $2026 -97 -96 -18 2.6 MEX $2027 is RICH to PANAMA $2026

CCUCI $2032 - TELEFO $2031 -195 -195 -93 2.5 CCUCI $2032 is RICH to TELEFO $2031

CENSUD $2027 - ENTEL $2026 -20 -20 49 2.5 CENSUD $2027 is RICH to ENTEL $2026

CDEL $2051 - SQM $2051 -59 23 24 2.4 CDEL $2051 is CHEAP to SQM $2051

CDEL $2042 - SCCO $2042 -25 51 51 2.4 CDEL $2042 is CHEAP to SCCO $2042

DOMREP $2030 - BOLIVI $2030 -1117 -1117 -546 2.4 DOMREP $2030 is RICH to BOLIVI $2030

PARGUY $2050 - PERU $2050 86 116 116 2.4 PARGUY $2050 is CHEAP to PERU $2050

MSUNRG $2025 - TRAGAS $2025 1417 2645 2645 2.3 MSUNRG $2025 is CHEAP to TRAGAS $2025

BOLIVI $2030 - DOMREP $2029 566 1120 1120 2.3 BOLIVI $2030 is CHEAP to DOMREP $2029

CFELEC $2051 - FRESLN $2050 109 149 149 2.3 CFELEC $2051 is CHEAP to FRESLN $2050
Existing Dislocations
Spread History (Z-Spread)
Relationship Z-Score Conclusion
6mo Chart Min Now Max
AGROSU $2032 - TELEFO $2031 -63 -63 26 4.3 AGROSU $2032 is RICH to TELEFO $2031

BNCE $2031 - PEMEX $2031 -398 -92 -80 3.1 BNCE $2031 is CHEAP to PEMEX $2031

AEGEBZ $2029 - CMIENE $2029 -50 -50 88 3.1 AEGEBZ $2029 is RICH to CMIENE $2029

CNECN $2028 - TPHLTT $2029 116 444 444 3.1 CNECN $2028 is CHEAP to TPHLTT $2029

CMIENE $2029 - ELEBRA $2030 9 146 146 3.1 CMIENE $2029 is CHEAP to ELEBRA $2030

Note: Dislocation defined as a spread differential between a pair of bonds more than 1.5 standard deviations from the 6mo median (modified z-score; see highlighted column). Existing dislocations denotes a spread differential with a z-score above
1.5x at least over the past two weeks. Subordinate bonds are priced to call date.
Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 13
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 31. New and existing dislocations in EEMEA

New Dislocations
Spread History (Z-Spread)
Relationship Z-Score Conclusion
6mo Chart Min Now Max
GEORG $2026 - JORDAN $2025 -244 -210 94 3.8 GEORG $2026 is RICH to JORDAN $2025

OMAN $2027 - JORDAN $2026 -348 -335 3 3.7 OMAN $2027 is RICH to JORDAN $2026

BHRAIN $2026 - JORDAN $2025 -524 -491 -137 3.5 BHRAIN $2026 is RICH to JORDAN $2025

BKMBOM $2026 - EBIUH $c2025 -61 -61 5 3.3 BKMBOM $2026 is RICH to EBIUH $c2025

DIBUH $2027 - ABQKQD $2026 -55 -55 -19 3.2 DIBUH $2027 is RICH to ABQKQD $2026

BHRAIN $2028 - IRAQ $2028 -671 -596 -275 3.2 BHRAIN $2028 is RICH to IRAQ $2028

ISRAEL $2026 - QATAR $2025 13 89 89 3.1 ISRAEL $2026 is CHEAP to QATAR $2025

GHANA $2030 - UKRAIN $2029 -2076 -1724 -1724 3.1 GHANA $2030 is CHEAP to UKRAIN $2029

UKRAIN $2030 - GHANA $2030 1887 1887 2239 3.1 UKRAIN $2030 is RICH to GHANA $2030

POLAND €2025 - REPHUN €2025 -62 -31 -31 3.0 POLAND €2025 is CHEAP to REPHUN €2025

ADGB $2027 - ISRAEL $2028 -79 -79 -27 2.9 ADGB $2027 is RICH to ISRAEL $2028

EBIUH $2027 - QNBK $2027 -29 9 10 2.8 EBIUH $2027 is CHEAP to QNBK $2027

IVYCST €2031 - SERBIA €2033 234 342 342 2.8 IVYCST €2031 is CHEAP to SERBIA €2033

QNBK $2027 - ABQKQD $2026 -48 -46 -15 2.8 QNBK $2027 is RICH to ABQKQD $2026
Existing Dislocations
Spread History (Z-Spread)
Relationship Z-Score Conclusion
6mo Chart Min Now Max
ISRAEL €2032 - POLAND €2032 -6 75 76 4.1 ISRAEL €2032 is CHEAP to POLAND €2032

POLAND €2028 - ISRAEL €2029 -101 -100 -12 4.1 POLAND €2028 is RICH to ISRAEL €2029

JORDAN $2025 - SOAF $2025 -21 312 359 3.8 JORDAN $2025 is CHEAP to SOAF $2025

ARMEN $2025 - JORDAN $2025 -412 -386 34 3.8 ARMEN $2025 is RICH to JORDAN $2025

BOUSUK $2027 - LUMIIT $2027 -185 -185 -59 3.7 BOUSUK $2027 is RICH to LUMIIT $2027

Note: Dislocation defined as a spread differential between a pair of bonds more than 1.5 standard deviations from the 6mo median (modified z-score; see highlighted column). Existing dislocations denotes a spread differential with a z-score above
1.5x at least over the past two weeks. Subordinate bonds are priced to call date. Russian issuers excluded.
Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 14
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

FIGURE 32. New and existing dislocations in Asia

New Dislocations
Spread History (Z-Spread)
Relationship Z-Score Conclusion
6mo Chart Min Now Max
AGRBK $2025 - ICBCIL $2025 -60 -48 -48 3.0 AGRBK $2025 is CHEAP to ICBCIL $2025

YANTZE $2026 - POWINV $2025 -13 -13 7 2.9 YANTZE $2026 is RICH to POWINV $2025

PLNIJ $2050 - IDASAL $2050 -58 -31 -31 2.9 PLNIJ $2050 is CHEAP to IDASAL $2050

CHGRID $2026 - POWINV $2025 -6 -6 14 2.8 CHGRID $2026 is RICH to POWINV $2025

HTSC $2025 - SWHYSE $2026 -44 -15 -15 2.5 HTSC $2025 is CHEAP to SWHYSE $2026

ADTIN $2026 - ONGCIN $2026 235 408 408 2.4 ADTIN $2026 is CHEAP to ONGCIN $2026

RECLIN $2026 - SBIIN $2026 31 31 44 2.3 RECLIN $2026 is RICH to SBIIN $2026

BHARTI $2025 - NTPCIN $2026 -24 6 6 2.3 BHARTI $2025 is CHEAP to NTPCIN $2026

ADSEZ $2031 - ADANEM $2030 -84 -21 -21 2.3 ADSEZ $2031 is CHEAP to ADANEM $2030

IDASAL $2050 - PLNIJ $2049 23 23 45 2.3 IDASAL $2050 is RICH to PLNIJ $2049

CHGRID $2026 - YANTZE $2025 8 8 24 2.3 CHGRID $2026 is RICH to YANTZE $2025

AGRBK $2025 - SDBC $2025 -21 -10 -10 2.2 AGRBK $2025 is CHEAP to SDBC $2025

HAISEC $2025 - SWHYSE $2026 -13 8 9 2.2 HAISEC $2025 is CHEAP to SWHYSE $2026

LENOVO $2028 - NXPI $2027 34 34 84 2.2 LENOVO $2028 is RICH to NXPI $2027

NXPI $2030 - LENOVO $2030 -90 -50 -49 2.2 NXPI $2030 is CHEAP to LENOVO $2030
Existing Dislocations
Spread History (Z-Spread)
Relationship Z-Score Conclusion
6mo Chart Min Now Max
HPCLIN $2027 - OINLIN $2027 1 1 17 3.2 HPCLIN $2027 is RICH to OINLIN $2027

PETMK $2025 - RHBCMK $2026 -78 -49 -49 3.2 PETMK $2025 is CHEAP to RHBCMK $2026

ICICI $2027 - RECLIN $2026 -29 2 2 3.1 ICICI $2027 is CHEAP to RECLIN $2026

ICBCAS $2026 - SDBC $2025 11 11 32 3.1 ICBCAS $2026 is RICH to SDBC $2025

JSTLIN $2027 - RPVIN $2028 -115 -43 -43 3.1 JSTLIN $2027 is CHEAP to RPVIN $2028

Note: Dislocation defined as a spread differential between a pair of bonds more than 1.5 standard deviations from the 6m median (modified z-score; see highlighted column). Existing dislocations denotes a spread differential with a z-score above
1.5x at least over the past two weeks. Subordinate bonds are priced to call date.
Source: Barclays Research

23 October 2023 15
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

Analyst(s) Certification(s):
We, Fabian Herold and Stefan Styk, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or
all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
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discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.
Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, "Barclays").
All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects
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Materially Mentioned Issuers/Bonds
C&W SENIOR FINANCING DAC, CD/J
CWCLN 6 7/8 09/15/27 (USD 86.25, 20-Oct-2023)
LIBERTY COSTA RICA SENIOR SECURED FINANCE, CD/J
LBTCOR 10 7/8 01/15/31 (USD 97.50, 20-Oct-2023)
All pricing information is indicative only. Unless otherwise indicated, prices are sourced from Refinitiv and reflect the closing price in the relevant
trading market, which may not be the last available price at the time of publication.
Disclosure Legend:
A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of the issuer in the
previous 12 months.
B: An employee or non-executive director of Barclays PLC is a director of this issuer.
CD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in debt securities issued by this issuer.
CE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in equity securities issued by this issuer.
CH: Barclays Bank PLC and/or its group companies makes, or will make, a market in the securities (as defined under paragraph 16.2 (k) of the HK SFC
Code of Conduct) in respect of this issuer.
D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.

23 October 2023 16
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the
next 3 months.
FA: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with US
regulations.
FB: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns a long position of more than 0.5% of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated
in accordance with EU regulations.
FC: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns a short position of more than 0.5% of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated
in accordance with EU regulations.
FD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of equity securities of this issuer, as calculated in accordance with
South Korean regulations.
FE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or its group companies has financial interests in relation to this issuer and such interests aggregate to an amount equal to
or more than 1% of this issuer’s market capitalization, as calculated in accordance with HK regulations.
GD: One of the Research Analysts on the fundamental credit coverage team (and/or a member of his or her household) has a long position in the
common equity securities of this issuer.
GE: One of the Research Analysts on the fundamental equity coverage team (and/or a member of his or her household) has a long position in the
common equity securities of this issuer.
H: This issuer beneficially owns more than 5% of any class of common equity securities of Barclays PLC.
I: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is party to an agreement with this issuer for the provision of financial services to Barclays Bank PLC and/or an
affiliate.
J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a liquidity provider and/or trades regularly in the securities of this issuer and/or in any related derivatives.
K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation (including compensation for brokerage services, if
applicable) from this issuer within the past 12 months.
L: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
M: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an
affiliate.
N: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or
an affiliate.
O: Not in use.
P: A partner, director or officer of Barclays Capital Canada Inc. has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for
remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.
Q: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a Corporate Broker to this issuer.
R: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.
S: This issuer is a Corporate Broker to Barclays PLC.
T: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is providing investor engagement services to this issuer.
U: The equity securities of this Canadian issuer include subordinate voting restricted shares.
V: The equity securities of this Canadian issuer include non-voting restricted shares.
Explanation of the Barclays Research Corporate Credit Sector Rating System

Overweight (OW):
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European Credit Index, the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Grade Credit
Index or the Bloomberg EM USD Corporate and Quasi-Sovereign Index, the analyst expects the six-month excess return of the sector to exceed the six-
month excess return of the relevant index.
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped
Credit Index excluding Financials, the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Finance Index or the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit
Index, the analyst expects the six-month total return of the sector to exceed the six-month total return of the relevant index.

Market Weight (MW):

For sectors rated against the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European Credit Index, the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Grade Credit
Index or the Bloomberg EM USD Corporate and Quasi-Sovereign Index, the analyst expects the six-month excess return of the sector to be in line with
the six-month excess return of the relevant index.
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped
Credit Index excluding Financials, the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Finance Index or the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit
Index, the analyst expects the six-month total return of the sector to be in line with the six-month total return of the relevant index.

23 October 2023 17
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

Underweight (UW):
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European Credit Index, the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Grade Credit
Index or the Bloomberg EM USD Corporate and Quasi-Sovereign Index, the analyst expects the six-month excess return of the sector to be less than the
six-month excess return of the relevant index.
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped
Credit Index excluding Financials, the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Finance Index or the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit
Index, the analyst expects the six-month total return of the sector to be less than the six-month total return of the relevant index.

Sector definitions:
Sectors in U.S. High Grade Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index and are rated against the Bloomberg
U.S. Credit Index.
Sectors in U.S. High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index and are
rated against the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index.

Sectors in European High Grade Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Pan-European Credit Index and are rated against
the Bloomberg Pan-European Credit Index.
Sectors in Industrials and Utilities in European High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield
3% Issuer Capped Credit Index excluding Financials and are rated against the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped Credit Index
excluding Financials.
Sectors in Financials in European High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Finance Index
and are rated against the Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Finance Index.

Sectors in Asia High Grade Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index.
Sectors in Asia High Yield Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit Index.

Sectors in EEMEA and Latin America Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Bloomberg EM USD Corporate and Quasi
Sovereign Index. These sectors may contain both High Grade and High Yield issuers.

To view sector definitions and monthly sector returns for Asia, EEMEA and Latin America Research, go to https://live.barcap.com/go/research/
EMSectorReturns on Barclays Live.

Explanation of the Barclays Research Corporate Credit Rating System

For all High Grade issuers covered in the US, Europe or Asia, and for all issuers in Latin America and EEMEA, the credit rating system is based on the
analyst's view of the expected excess return over a six-month period of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities* relative to the expected
excess return of the relevant sector, as specified on the report.

Overweight (OW): The analyst expects the six-month excess return of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities to exceed the six-month
expected excess return of the relevant sector.
Market Weight (MW): The analyst expects the six-month excess return of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities to be in line with the six-
month expected excess return of the relevant sector.
Underweight (UW): The analyst expects the six-month excess return of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities to be less than the six-
month expected excess return of the relevant sector.
Rating Suspended (RS): The rating has been suspended temporarily due to market events that make coverage impracticable or to comply with
applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC is acting in an advisory
capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Coverage Suspended (CS): Coverage of this issuer has been temporarily suspended.
Not Covered (NC): Barclays’ fundamental credit research team does not provide formal, continuous coverage of this issuer and has not assigned a
rating to the issuer or its debt securities. Any analysis, opinion or trade recommendation provided on a Not Covered issuer or its debt securities is valid
only as of the publication date of this report and there should be no expectation that additional reports relating to the Not Covered issuer or its debt
securities will be published thereafter.

For all High Yield issuers (excluding those covered in EEMEA or Latin America), the credit rating system is based on the analyst's view of the expected
total returns over a six-month period of the rated debt security relative to the expected total return of the relevant sector, as specified on the report.

23 October 2023 18
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

Overweight (OW): The analyst expects the six-month total return of the debt security subject to this rating to exceed the six-month expected total
return of the relevant sector.
Market Weight (MW): The analyst expects the six-month total return of the debt security subject to this rating to be in line with the six-month expected
total return of the relevant sector.
Underweight (UW): The analyst expects the six-month total return of the rated debt security subject to this rating to be less than the six-month
expected total return of the relevant sector.
Rating Suspended (RS): The rating has been suspended temporarily due to market events that make coverage impracticable or to comply with
applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC is acting in an advisory
capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Coverage Suspended (CS): Coverage of this issuer has been temporarily suspended.
Not Covered (NC): Barclays’ fundamental credit research team does not provide formal, continuous coverage of this issuer and has not assigned a
rating to the issuer or its debt securities. Any analysis, opinion or trade recommendation provided on a Not Covered issuer or its debt securities is valid
only as of the publication date of this report and there should be no expectation that additional reports relating to the Not Covered issuer or its debt
securities will be published thereafter.

Where a recommendation is made at the issuer level, it does not apply to any sanctioned securities, where trading in such securities would be
prohibited under applicable law, including sanctions laws and regulations.

*In EEMEA and Latin America (and in certain other limited instances in other regions), analysts may occasionally rate issuers that are not part of the
Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index, the Bloomberg Pan-European Credit Index, the Bloomberg EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index or Bloomberg EM USD
Corporate and Quasi Sovereign Index. In such cases the rating will reflect the analyst’s view of the expected excess return over a six-month period of
the issuer’s corporate debt securities relative to the expected excess return of the relevant sector, as specified on the report.
Distribution of ratings assigned by Barclays Corporate Credit Research at the bond level:
31% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 32% of bonds with
this rating category are investment banking clients of the Firm; 61% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
47% have been assigned Market Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 51% of bonds
with this rating category are investment banking clients of the Firm; 70% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
22% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 44% of bonds
with this rating category are investment banking clients of the Firm; 71% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
Types of investment recommendations produced by Barclays FICC Research:
In addition to any ratings assigned under Barclays’ formal rating systems, this publication may contain investment recommendations in the form of
trade ideas, thematic screens, scorecards or portfolio recommendations that have been produced by analysts in FICC Research. Any such investment
recommendations produced by non-Credit Research teams shall remain open until they are subsequently amended, rebalanced or closed in a future
research report. Any such investment recommendations produced by the Credit Research teams are valid at current market conditions and may not be
otherwise relied upon.

Disclosure of other investment recommendations produced by Barclays FICC Research:

Barclays FICC Research may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities/instruments recommended in this
research report during the preceding 12 months. To view all investment recommendations published by Barclays FICC Research in the preceding 12
months please refer to https://live.barcap.com/go/research/Recommendations.
Barclays does not assign ratings to asset backed securities. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates may have acted as an underwriter for public
offerings of any asset backed securities that are otherwise recommended in trade ideas contained within its securitised research reports.
Legal entities involved in producing Barclays Research:
Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, UK)
Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, US)
Barclays Bank Ireland PLC, Frankfurt Branch (BBI, Frankfurt)
Barclays Bank Ireland PLC, Paris Branch (BBI, Paris)
Barclays Bank Ireland PLC, Milan Branch (BBI, Milan)
Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Japan)
Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong Branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)
Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Canada)
Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico)
Barclays Capital Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. (BCCB, Mexico)
Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, India)
Barclays Bank PLC, India Branch (Barclays Bank, India)
Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore Branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)

23 October 2023 19
Barclays | EM Credit Strategy

Barclays Bank PLC, DIFC Branch (Barclays Bank, DIFC)

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