Exercise 02 (Suggested Answers)

1. (a)
D D̄ Total
T 30 60 90
T̄ 20 70 90
Total 50 130 180
(b) P (T̄ ) = 90/180 = 0.5
(c) P (D) = 50/180 = 0.2778
(d) P (D ∩ T ) = 30/180 = 0.1667
(e) P (D ∪ T ) = P (D) + P (T ) − P (D ∩ T ) = 0.2778 + 90/180 − 0.1667 = 0.6111
30
(f) P (T |D) = 50
= 0.6
70
(g) P (T̄ |D̄) = 130
= 0.5385
(h)
P (T |D)P (D)
P (D|T ) =
P (T |D)P (D) + P (T |D̄)P (D̄)
(0.6)(0.15)
=
(0.6)(0.15) + (1 − 0.5383)(1 − 0.15)
= 0.1865

2. (a) i. The drilling of a well (trial) results in a strike (success) or not strike (fail-
ure).
ii. Trials are identical and independent with p = 1/13 for each well.
iii. X : the number of trials (wells drilled) before the first success (strike).
(b)
 x−1  
12 1
P(X = x) =
13 13
for x = 1, 2, 3, . . . and P(X = x) = 0 otherwise.
1 12/13
(c) E(X) = 1/p = 1/13
= 13 and Var(X) = (1 − p)/p2 = (1/13)2
= 156
(d)
P(X ≥ 2) = 1 − P(X = 1)
 
1
= 1−
13
12
=
13
3. Let X : the number of silent paging errors introduced when using the system word
processor 20 times.
X is binomial with n = 20 and p = 0.1.

1
 (a) P(X = 0) = 0.1216
(b) P(X ≥ 1) = 1 − P(X = 0) = 0.8784
(c) Yes, the probability of more than four errors occurring is

P(X > 4) = 1 − P(X ≤ 4) = 1 − 0.9568 = 0.0432

which is small.

4. X is negative binomial with r = 3 and p = 0.9.

(a)
 
x−1
P(X = x) = (0.1)x−3 (0.9)r
2

for x = 3, 4, 5 . . ., and P(X = x) = 0 otherwise.

(b) µ = r/p = 3/0.9 = 3.333,
σ 2 = rq/p2 = 3(0.1)/(0.9)2 = 0.3704
(c)

P(X ≥ 7) = 1 − P(X ≤ 6)
     
2 0 3 3 1 3 4
= 1− (0.1) (0.9) + (0.1) (0.9) + (0.1)2 (0.9)3
2 2 2
  
5 3 3
+ (0.1) (0.9) +
2
≈ 0.00127

5. (a) P (X = 1) = P (X ≤ 1) − P (X ≤ 0) = 0.406 − 0.135 = 0.271

Or −2 1
P (X = 1) = e 1!(2) = 0.27067
(b) P (X = 2) = P (X ≤ 2) − P (X ≤ 1) = 0.677 − 0.406 = 0.271
Or −2 2
P (X = 2) = e 2!(2) = 0.27067
(c) P (X = 0) = P (X ≤ 0) = 0.135
Or −2 0
P (X = 0) = e 0!(2) = 0.13534
(d) P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X ≤ 0) = 1 − 0.135 = 0.865

∼ End ∼