Environmental Data Science

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Hypothesis Testing
A hypothesis, then, to a research scientist is a “guess” about
what we think is true in the real world.
Hypotheses always refer to the population, and never to the
sample of people, plants, animals, or events in our study.
Hypothesis
We will use the symbol: μ (the Greek letter “mu”) to refer to the
population mean.
In testing our hypotheses, we are trying to decide which one of two
competing hypotheses about the population mean we should accept
given our data set.
Two Hypothesis
The null hypothesis is what we accept as true unless we have
compelling evidence that it is not true. Statistics textbooks typically
refer to the null hypothesis with the notation: 𝐻0
The research hypothesis is what we accept as true whenever we
reject the null hypothesis as true. Typically referred to with the
notation: 𝐻1
Hypothesis in Rating Scales
How do we decide what to use as the null hypothesis and the
research hypothesis whenever rating scales are used?
Rule: Whenever rating scales are used, we will use the “middle” of the
scale as the null hypothesis and the research hypothesis.
Hypothesis in Rating Scales
Example:
Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality of the academic programs offered
by your school?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Very Very
dissatisfied satisfied

Null hypothesis: μ = 4
Research hypothesis : μ ≠ 4
Steps for Hypothesis-Testing Using the
Confidence Interval about the Mean

STEP 1: State the Null Hypothesis and the Research Hypothesis

STEP 2: Select the Appropriate Statistical Test
STEP 3: Calculate the Formula for the Statistical Test
STEP 4: Draw a Picture of the Confidence Interval About the Mean,
Including the Mean, the Lower Limit of the Interval, the Upper Limit of
the Interval, and the Reference Value Given in the Null Hypothesis, 𝑯𝟎
Steps for Hypothesis-Testing Using the
Confidence Interval about the Mean

STEP 5: Decide on a Decision Rule

(a) If the reference value is inside the confidence interval, accept the null hypothesis, 𝑯𝟎
(b) If the reference value is outside the confidence interval, reject the null hypothesis, 𝑯𝟎 , and
accept the research hypothesis, 𝑯𝟏

STEP 6: State the Result of Your Statistical Test

a) Since the reference value is inside the confidence interval , we accept the null hypothesis
b) Since the reference value is outside the confidence interval, we reject the null hypothesis and
accept the research hypothesis.

STEP 7: State the Conclusion of Your Statistical Test

Example Problem no. 1
Let’s suppose that General Motors wanted to claim that its Ford
Ranger achieves 28 miles per gallon (mpg). Let’s call 28 mpg the
“reference value” for this car. Suppose that you work for Ford Motor
Co. and that you want to check this claim to see is it holds up based
on some research evidence. You select a sample of new car owners
for this car and they agree to keep track of their mileage for two tanks
of gas and to record the average miles per gallon they achieve on
these two tanks of gas.
Example Problem no. 1
Draw a picture below this confidence interval
26.92 28 28.17 29.42
Lower ref. Mean Upper
Limit value limit
Reference value: 28
Null hypothesis: 𝐻0 : μ = 28
Research hypothesis: 𝐻1 : μ ≠ 28
RESULT: Since the reference value of 28 mpg is inside the confidence
interval, we accept the null hypothesis, 𝐻0
CONCLUSION: The Ford Ranger did get 28 mpg
Example Problem no. 2
Suppose that an ad in the Facebook claimed that the Honda Accord Sedan
gets 34 miles per gallon
30 34 31 32
Lower ref. Mean Upper
Limit value limit
Reference value: 34
Null hypothesis: 𝐻0 : μ = 34
Research hypothesis: 𝐻1 : μ ≠ 34
RESULT: Since the reference value is outside the confidence interval, we
reject the null hypothesis, 𝐻0 and accept the research hypothesis, 𝐻1 .
CONCLUSION: The Honda Accord Sedan got significantly less than 34 mpg,
and it was probably closer to 31 mpg.
NOTES
Objective: To write the conclusion when you accept Null hypothesis
Rule #1: If the reference value was inside the confidence interval, we
cannot use the word “significantly” in the conclusion.

Objective: To write the result and conclusion when you reject Null
hypothesis
Rule #1: We must include the word “significantly” if since the
reference value is outside the confidence interval. Key terms to used:
either “more than” or “less than”, “probably close to”
Different Ways to Accept the Null
Hypothesis
•“The null hypothesis is not rejected.” (Black 2010, p. 310)
•“The null hypothesis cannot be rejected.” (McDaniel and Gates 2010, p.
545)
•“The null hypothesis ... claims that there is no difference between groups.”
(Salkind 2010, p. 193)
•“The difference is not statistically significant.” (McDaniel and Gates 2010,
p. 545)
•“... the obtained value is not extreme enough for us to say that the
difference between Groups 1 and 2 occurred by anything other than
chance.” (Salkind 2010, p. 225)
•“If we do not reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that there is not
enough statistical evidence to infer that the alternative (hypothesis) is true.”
(Keller 2009, p. 358)
•“The research hypothesis is not supported.” (Zikmund and Babin 2010, p.
552)
Different Ways to Reject the Null
Hypothesis
•“The null hypothesis is rejected.” (McDaniel and Gates 2010, p. 546)
•“If we reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that there is enough statistical
evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is true.” (Keller 2009, p. 358)
•“If the test statistic’s value is inconsistent with the null hypothesis, we reject the
null hypothesis and infer that the alternative hypothesis is true.” (Keller 2009, p.
348)
•“Because the observed value ... is greater than the critical value ..., the decision is
to reject the null hypothesis.” (Black 2010, p. 359)
•“If the obtained value is more extreme than the critical value, the null hypothesis
cannot be accepted.” (Salkind 2010, p. 243)
•“The critical t-value ... must be surpassed by the observed t-value if the hypothesis
test is to be statistically significant ....” (Zikmund and Babin 2010, p. 567)
•“The calculated test statistic ... exceeds the upper boundary and falls into this
rejection region. The null hypothesis is rejected.” (Weiers 2011, p. 330)