To Race Or Not To Race?

John Carter was not sure, but his brother and partner,
Fred Carter, was on the phone and needed a decision.
Should they run in the race or not?
It had been a successful season so far, but the Pocono
race was important because of the prize money and TV
exposure it promised.
This first year had been hard because the team was
trying to make a name for itself. They had run a lot of
small races to get this shot at the bigtime.
A successful outing could mean more sponsors, a
chance to start making some profits for a change, and
the luxury of racing only the major events. But if they
suffered another engine failure on national television…
15.1
Wednesday, 27 April 2022 7:38 PM
 To Race Or Not To Race?
Adapted from: Carter Racing, [A] [B] [C], Jack W. Brittain and
Sim B. Sitkin, Dispute Resolution Research Centre, Northwestern
University.

1988 Brittain, J., and Sitkin, S. Carter Racing Case and Teaching
Notes, Stanford Case System (#S-OB-24), Graduate School of
Business, Stanford University.

1989 Brittain, J., and Sitkin, S. Facts, figures and organisational

decisions: Carter Racing and quantitative analysis in the
organisational behaviour classroom, Organisational Behaviour
Teaching Review, Vol. 14, No. 1, 62-81.

2015 Borgonovo, E. and Marinacci, M. Decision analysis under

ambiguity, European Journal Of Operational Research Volume:
244 Issue: 3 Pages: 823-836 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.02.001
15.2
Wednesday, 27 April 2022 7:38 PM
To Race Or Not To Race?

Would you race?

15.3
 To Race Or Not To Race?

1. Top five finish would mean a big-time sponsorship.

2. But another blown engine could mean disaster.

3. Team engines have failed 7 times in 24 outings for

mysterious reasons.

4. The team engine mechanic believes that cooler

temperatures are related to engine failure and it’s
unusually cold at post time.

15.4
To Race Or Not To Race?

Would you race?

15.5
 Technical Input

1. Engine mechanic Paul Edwards recommends

withdrawal because he feels that past engine
failures are related to the ambient air
temperature.

2. Team engineer Tom Burns believes strongly

that the rewards are worth the risks. He
reviews the temperature data, but they
indicate no relationship with gasket failure.

15.6
 Historical Failure Data
4

3
Failures

0
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Temperature

Burns finds that the data indicate engine failures

have occurred at all temperatures. 15.7
To Race Or Not To Race?

Would you race?

15.8