What-if

Analysis
FM-TEC-SHE-ALL-C05-L2-P06-N04

TEC-TOB2
Training Overview

1. Introduction

1a. Description

1b. Expected Training Competency

2. Learning Content

2a. Learning Objective

2b. Material Course

2c. Summary/Resume

2d. Evaluation/Formative Test

3. Evaluation
CONFIDENTIAL

Section Department General

Manager Manager Manager

Andang P Erwin L Yohanes W

CONFIDENTIAL

1a. Material Description

Introduction for basic knowledge of What-If Analysis Method as One of
Process Hazard Analysis Tools

1b. Expected Training & Competency

Competency ENG Sr ENG
Definition
Name TOB1 TOB2 TPO1 TPO2 TPO3 TEC1 TEC2 TOB1 TOB2 TPO1 TPO2 TPO3 TEC1 TEC2

Safety By the in of this session, participant will Be

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Management able to provide what if analysys

Competency SM DM
Definition
Name TOB1 TOB2 TPO1 TPO2 TPO3 TEC1 TEC2 TOB TPO

Safety By the in of this session, participant will Be

4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4
Management able to provide what if analysys

4
CONFIDENTIAL

2a. Learning Objective

By the end of this training, participants will be able to :

 Knowing What-If Analysis as one of Process Hazard Analysis Tools
 Understanding steps of what if analysis
 Knowing how to participate/ conduct what- if analysis

5
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

Terms & Definitions

No. Term Definition

A technique using brainstorming to determine what can go wrong in specific scenarios and
1 What If identify the resulting consequences.

A set of organized and systematic assessments of the potential hazards associated with an
Process Hazard
2 industrial process. A PHA provides information intended to assist managers and employees
Analysis
in making decisions for hazardous chemicals.

6
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

About What If Analysis

A technique using  Assessing Modified

brainstorming to determine Facility
Appropriate for both
what can go wrong in specific  Simple Process
individuals and teams.
scenarios and identify the  Refer to Matrix in PHA
resulting consequences. Procedure’s CAP

What? Who? When?

Familiar with process/

equipment that being
assessed

Requirement
7
CONFIDENTIAL
2b. Material Course
Benefits and Limitations of What If Analysis
BENEFITS
 Easy to use
 No specialized tools needed
 People with little hazard analysis
experience can participate meaningfully
 Leads to deeper insight, especially for
person/people conducting the analysis
8
LIMITATION
 Only useful if you ask the right
questions
 Relies on intuition of team members
 More subjective than other methods
 Greater potential for reviewer bias
 More difficult to translate results into
convincing arguments for change
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

CAP’s Matrix about Process Hazard Analysis Tools Selection
PHA TOOLS REQUIRED
ACTIVITIES
HAZOPS-LOPA SIL/ FTA FMEA WHAT-IF

Background of PHA Leader Process Tech/ Operation MTN/ EGD Instrument MTN/ PDM Process Tech/ Operation
SHE, MTN/ EGD SHE, Operation/ Operation/ Process Tech SHE, MTN/ EGD
Required Teams Process Tech
Equipment Breakdown Analysis - - Y -
Process Condition Changes from BEP/ PDP (i.e: Operating

HAZOPS Existing
plant in high capacity, Feed changes, product specification Y - - -
changes, etc)
Plant
PHA Normal Activities Y - - -
PHA Non Normal Activities (i.e: Shut Down, Start Up,
Regeneration, Decoking, Dumping, etc) Y - - -
Process Modification (i.e: Add line, pump, control valve,
pump, etc) which can be captured by HAZOPS guideword Y - - -
Process Modification (i.e: size up mesh strainer, add drain,
etc) which can't be captured by HAZOPS guideword - - - Y
Software Modification (i.e: Add Automatic Process Control,
DCS Upgrading, etc) - - - Y
HAZOPS for Material Upgrade/ Replacement (i.e: catalyst replacement,
MOC/ ECR process equipment material changes, etc) - - - Y
Interlock Logic Modification Y Y - -
Add new Instumentation (i.e: online analyzer, Flow/
Pressure Transmitter) - - - Y
Instrumentation Range Changes/ Sized Up - - - Y
Expansion/ Increasing of plant capacity through some modification (by
Debottlenecking Licensor) Y Y - -
Greenfield
Project
New Plant/ Process System (by Licensor) Y Y - -

9
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

Steps to Conduct What-If Analysis

2. Generate 5. Prioritize and

3. Evaluate and 4. Develop 6. Assigned
1. Kick Off What-If Summarize
Assess Risk Recommendation Follow Up Action
Questions Recommendation
• Explain scope of • Potential • Considers all • Categorized Risk • Prioritized all • Assigned PIC
What-If Human Errors What-If as high and low recommendation • Set up due date
• Explain • Equipment Questions • High risk need as high, moderate,
modification in Component • Decide recommendation and low
those systems Errors likelihood and to reduce risk
• Deviation of consequences and low risk
Operating doesn’t
Condition

10
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

CAP’s Risk Matrix
Frequency
Frequency
DESCRIPTION (Events per
Category RISK
Year)
Very likely to occur > 1 to 10-1 F-1 IV III II II I I
Likely to occur at least
once in the lifetime of the 10-1 to 10-2 F-2 IV IV III II II I
process
Unlikely to occur in the
lifetime of the process, 10-2 to 10-3 F-3 IV IV IV III II I
but possible
Very unlikely - not
expected
10-3 to 10-4 F-4 IV IV IV IV III II
Extremely unlikely 10-4 to 10-5 F-5 IV IV IV IV IV III
Not realistically expected
to occur
10-5 to 10-6 F-6 IV IV IV IV IV IV
CONSEQUENCE CATEGORY C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6
Multiple
Serious Injury Single Fatality (1-
Safety None Minor Injury Lost Time Injury
(Irreversible) 3 fatalities)
Fatalities (>3
fatalities)

EPA breach of Major release, EPA Environment

Public nuisance, EPA
license, minor investigation, fines, damage,Corporate Extensive Catastrophic
CONSEQUENCE licence non-
Environmental public nuisance,
compliance possible
lawsuits expected. reputation environmental environmental
DESCRIPTION external release
fines
Some environment damaged, Legal damage damage
minor damage action expected

Significant Damage - Extensive

Slight Damage Minor Damage Major Damage
Asset (USD) < 3K >3K and <30K
Defult (one vessel lost)
> 0.3M and < 3M
Damage >30M
>30k and < 0.3 M >3 Mand <30M

11
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

CAP’s What-If Worksheet

Chandra Asri Petrochemical Session Date : Drawings : 02006F,03007B, 03007C, 03007E, 04008D
What-If Analysis Worksheet System :
Sub-system :
Parameter :
Design Intention :

RECOMMENDATIONS/
NO WHAT-IF CONSEQUENCES S L R IPL SAFEGUARDS S L R COMMENTS
ACTIONS

12
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

CAP’s Risk Level Criteria
I Intolerable Risk Level Un-Acceptable- Mandatory Develop
recommendations to reduce risk to at least
category III
II Undesirable Risk Level Un-Acceptable-Mandatory Develop
recommendations to reduce risk to at least
category III
III Tolerable with Risk Level Transition-Team may make
Controls Opportunity for Improvement to reduce risk to
category IV
IV Tolerable as is Risk Level Acceptable-Team may make
Opportunity for Improvement to reduce risk

13
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

Reference of Likelihood

14
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

Reference of IPL’s Credit

15
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

Example of What-If Questions
Equipment or
Human Factor Utility Personal Protection
Material Failure
• What if material used is • What if power is lost? • What if pressure • What if a body is impacted
too concentrated (or • What if power is suddenly increased/ by liquids or solids?
diluted)? restored automatically decreased? (consider physical barriers)
• What if the after loss? • What if flow rate • What if someone is
valve/stopcock does not • What if cooling water suddenly increase/ exposed to vapors or
open (or close)? loss? decreased? gases? (consider PPE)
• What if IA loss? • What if temperature • What if someone is
• What if the valve(s) are • What if steam loss? suddenly increased/ exposed to small particles?
opened (or closed) in the decreased? (consider ventilation)
wrong sequence? • What if material
• What if inert gas is rupture?
omitted? • What if instrumentation
• What if unintended error?
materials are mixed
together?

• What if readings are

missed or ignored?
• What if warnings are
missed or ignored?
• What if there are errors
in diagnosis?
16
CONFIDENTIAL

2b. Material Course

Example of What-If Analysis

Chandra Asri Petrochemical Session Date : Monday, 12th October 2020 Drawings : 04008H
What-If Analysis Worksheet System : Debutanizer
Sub-system : PC-1208
Parameter : Additional New Transmitter PC-1208
Design Intention : Operating Pressure 5.5 KG

RECOMMENDATIONS/
NO WHAT-IF CONSEQUENCES S L R IPL SAFEGUARDS S L R COMMENTS
ACTIONS
1 PIC-1208 error misreading low due Low feed to reactor causing pygas - - - -FIC-1201 - - - Not required
to signal failed product rate decreased, no impact to -FAL-1210
process safety

2 PIC-1208 error misreading high Higher pressure in DC-1201 impact to 5 1 1 -PIC-1201 will active and reduce pressure (-1) 5 4 3 Risk Level 3,
due to signal failed equipment damage due to over - FAH-1201 (-1) Opportunity for
pressure, potental jet fire if there is - PSV-1202 in DC-1201 (-2) improvement to
ignition source include PIC-1208 in PM

17
CONFIDENTIAL

2c. Summary

 What If analysis: A technique using brainstorming to determine what can go

wrong in specific scenarios and identify the resulting consequences.
 There are 6 steps during conducting What-If Analysis.
 What If Analysis questions can be categorized into 4 criteria's: Human
Factors, Utilities, Equipment/ Material Failure, Personal Protection .

18
CONFIDENTIAL

2d. Evaluation / Post Test

POST TEST CAN BE ACCESSED ON:

19
CONFIDENTIAL

Thank You

20