Optimized

Estimated
Raw Data (hardcoded) One segment
Formula

One-Segment Model: Model Estimation

%(survive m # Customers retained # Losses in

m months) in month m month m
0 100% 10,000
1 64% 6,426 3574
2 50% 5,023 1403
3 41% 4,146 877
4 36% 3,556 590
5 31% 3,109 446
6 28% 2,822 287
7 25% 2,535 287
8 23% 2,312 223
9 21% 2,105 207
10 19% 1,945 159
11 19% 1,945 0
12 18% 1,786 159

# customers retained
after m=12 1,786
One segment
Loglikelihood of data -9367
monthly churn probability 17.9%

monthly retention rate 82%

P(survive m P(churn in month

months) m) LL
100%
82% 18% -2672
67% 15% -1169
55% 12% -806
45% 10% -592
37% 8% -487
31% 7% -337
25% 5% -362
21% 5% -301
17% 4% -297
14% 3% -242
11% 2% 0
9% 2% -269

-1834
 Optimized
Estimated
Raw Data (hardcoded)
Formula

Two-Segment Model: Model Estimation

# Customers alive in %(survive m # Losses in

m month m months) month m
0 10,000 100%
1 6,426 64.3% 3574
2 5,023 50.2% 1403
3 4,146 41.5% 877
4 3,556 35.6% 590
5 3,109 31.1% 446
6 2,822 28.2% 287
7 2,535 25.4% 287
8 2,312 23.1% 223
9 2,105 21.0% 207
10 1,945 19.5% 159
11 1,945 19.5% 0
12 1,786 17.9% 159

# customers
retained after
m=12 1,786

Two-Segment Model: Long-Term Retention Forecast

m # Customers alive in month m %(survive m months# Losses in month m
0 10,000 100%
1 6,426 64% 3574
2 5,023 50% 1403
3 4,146 41% 877
4 3,556 36% 590
5 3,109 31% 446
 6 2,822 28% 287
7 2,535 25% 287
8 2,312 23% 223
9 2,105 21% 207
10 1,945 19% 159
11 1,945 19% 0
12 1,786 18% 159
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Loglikelihood of data -8649
monthly churn monthly retention
Proportion probability rate

segment 1 46% 7.7% 92.3%

segment 2 54% 56.6% 43.4%

P(survive m P(churn in month P(survive m P(churn in month P(survive m P(churn in month

months)-seg1 m)-seg1 months)-seg2 m)-seg2 months)-overall m)-overall
100% 100% 100.0%
92% 8% 43% 57% 65.9% 34%
85% 7% 19% 25% 49.3% 17%
79% 7% 8% 11% 40.6% 9%
72% 6% 4% 5% 35.3% 5%
67% 6% 2% 2% 31.6% 4%
62% 5% 1% 1% 28.7% 3%
57% 5% 0% 0% 26.3% 2%
52% 4% 0% 0% 24.2% 2%
48% 4% 0% 0% 22.3% 2%
45% 4% 0% 0% 20.6% 2%
41% 3% 0% 0% 19.0% 2%
38% 3% 0% 0% 17.5% 1%

P(survive m monthsP(churn in month mP(survive m monthsP(churn in month mP(survive m monthsP(churn in month m)-overall
100% 100% 100.00%
92% 8% 43% 57% 65.89% 34%
85% 7% 19% 25% 49.34% 17%
79% 7% 8% 11% 40.56% 9%
72% 6% 4% 5% 35.27% 5%
67% 6% 2% 2% 31.60% 4%
62% 5% 1% 1% 28.75% 3%
57% 5% 0% 0% 26.35% 2%
52% 4% 0% 0% 24.23% 2%
48% 4% 0% 0% 22.32% 2%
45% 4% 0% 0% 20.58% 2%
41% 3% 0% 0% 18.97% 2%
38% 3% 0% 0% 17.50% 1%
35% 3% 0% 0% 16.15% 1%
32% 3% 0% 0% 14.89% 1%
30% 3% 0% 0% 13.74% 1%
28% 2% 0% 0% 12.68% 1%
25% 2% 0% 0% 11.69% 1%
23% 2% 0% 0% 10.79% 1%
22% 2% 0% 0% 9.95% 1%
20% 2% 0% 0% 9.18% 1%
18% 2% 0% 0% 8.47% 1%
17% 1% 0% 0% 7.81% 1%
16% 1% 0% 0% 7.21% 1%
14% 1% 0% 0% 6.65% 1%
13% 1% 0% 0% 6.14% 1%
12% 1% 0% 0% 5.66% 0%
11% 1% 0% 0% 5.22% 0%
10% 1% 0% 0% 4.82% 0%
10% 1% 0% 0% 4.44% 0%
9% 1% 0% 0% 4.10% 0%
8% 1% 0% 0% 3.78% 0%
8% 1% 0% 0% 3.49% 0%
7% 1% 0% 0% 3.22% 0%
6% 1% 0% 0% 2.97% 0%
6% 0% 0% 0% 2.74% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0% 2.53% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0% 2.33% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0% 2.15% 0%
4% 0% 0% 0% 1.98% 0%
 LL

-1669
-1096
-926
-753
-641
-443
-465
-374
-356
-280
0
-292

-1352

n in month m)-overall
 Optimized
Estimated
Raw Data (hardcoded)
Formula

One-Segment Model: Customer Valuation

Valuation Inputs

Monthly retention rate 82.1%

Avg Order Rate 1.8
Rev Per Order 57.3
Contribution Margin 26%
Monthly WACC 1.53%
CAC (2016) $100

Cash Flow Forecasts

Month
Overall (1 Segment Model) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A Average Order Rate 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
B x Revenue per order 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
C x Contribution margin 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
D = Margin while alive 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
E x Retention probability 82.1% 67.4% 55.4% 45.5% 37.3% 30.7% 25.2%
F = Expected margin 22.0 18.1 14.8 12.2 10.0 8.2 6.8
G x Discount Factor 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90
= Net present value of expected
H margin 21.7 17.5 14.2 11.5 9.3 7.5 6.1
Cumulative net present value of
I expected margin 21.7 39.2 53.4 64.9 74.2 81.7 87.7

Summary of Valuation Metrics

Cumulative net present value of Month

expected margin 1 2 3 6 12 24 36
Overall (1 Segment Model) 21.7 39.2 53.4 81.7 104.5 112.7 113.4

Post-acquisition customer value,

CLV, and CLV-to-CAC ratios NPV CLV CLV/CAC
Overall (1 Segment Model) 113.4 13.4 0.13
 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
20.7% 17.0% 13.9% 11.4% 9.4% 7.7% 6.3% 5.2% 4.3% 3.5% 2.9%
5.5 4.6 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8
0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.76

4.9 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6

92.6 96.6 99.8 102.4 104.5 106.2 107.6 108.7 109.6 110.3 110.9

48 60
113.4 113.4
 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
2.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.75 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

111.4 111.8 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.7 112.8 113.0 113.0 113.1 113.2 113.2
 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.62 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.53

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

113.2 113.3 113.3 113.3 113.3 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4
 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.52 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.44

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4
 55 56 57 58 59 60
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4

 Optimized
Estimated
Raw Data (hardcoded)
Formula

Two-Segment Model: Customer Valuation

Valuation Inputs

Proportion(hi loyal) 46%

Retention (hi loyal) 92.3%
Retention (lo loyal) 43.4%
Avg Order Rate 1.8
Rev Per Order 57.3
Contribution Margin 26%
Monthly WACC 1.53%
CAC (2016) $100

Cash Flow Forecasts

Month
High Loyalty Segment 1 2 3 4 5 6
A Average Order Rate 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
B x Revenue per order 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
C x Contribution margin 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
D = Margin while alive 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
E x Retention probability 92.3% 85.1% 78.5% 72.4% 66.8% 61.6%
F = Expected margin 24.7 22.8 21.1 19.4 17.9 16.5
G x= Discount Factor
Net present value of expected 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.91
H margin 24.4 22.1 20.1 18.3 16.6 15.1
Cumulative net present value of
I expected margin 24.4 46.5 66.6 84.9 101.5 116.6

Month
Low Loyalty Segment 1 2 3 4 5 6
A Average Order Rate 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
B x Revenue per order 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
C x Contribution margin 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
D = Margin while alive 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
E x Retention probability 43.4% 18.8% 8.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7%
F = Expected margin 11.6 5.0 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.2
G x= Discount Factor
Net present value of expected 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.91
H margin 11.5 4.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2
Cumulative net present value of
I expected margin 11.5 16.4 18.4 19.3 19.7 19.9
Summary of Valuation Metrics

Cumulative net present value of Month

expected margin 1 2 3 6 12 24
High Loyalty Segment 24.4 46.5 66.6 116.6 182.2 239.9
Low Loyalty Segment 11.5 16.4 18.4 19.9 20.0 20.0
Overall (2 Segment Model) 17.4 30.2 40.6 64.4 94.7 121.3

Post-acquisition customer value NPV CLV CLV/CAC

High Loyalty Segment 266.7 $167 1.67
Low Loyalty Segment 20.0 -$80 -0.80
Overall (2 Segment Model) 133.6 $34 0.34
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
56.9% 52.5% 48.4% 44.7% 41.2% 38.0% 35.1% 32.3% 29.8% 27.5% 25.4%
15.3 14.1 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.2 9.4 8.7 8.0 7.4 6.8
0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77
13.7 12.5 11.3 10.3 9.3 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.3

130.3 142.8 154.1 164.4 173.7 182.2 189.9 196.9 203.3 209.1 214.4

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
 36 48 60
258.2 264.0 265.8
20.0 20.0 20.0
129.7 132.4 133.2
 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
23.4% 21.6% 19.9% 18.4% 17.0% 15.7% 14.4% 13.3% 12.3% 11.3% 10.5% 9.6%
6.3 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6
0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64
4.8 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7

219.1 223.5 227.4 231.0 234.3 237.2 239.9 242.4 244.6 246.6 248.4 250.1

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
8.9% 8.2% 7.6% 7.0% 6.4% 5.9% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7%
2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
0.63 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.54
1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

251.6 253.0 254.2 255.4 256.4 257.3 258.2 259.0 259.7 260.3 260.9 261.4

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.63 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.54
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
3.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4%
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

261.9 262.3 262.7 263.1 263.4 263.7 264.0 264.2 264.4 264.6 264.8 265.0

42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.44 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40
0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

265.2 265.3 265.4 265.5 265.6 265.7 265.8

54 55 56 57 58 59 60
1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3
26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.44 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

 Optimized
Estimated
Raw Data (hardcoded)
Formula

Financial Metrics
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Total Marketing Expense ($MM) 2,283 3,499 4,350 3,868 8,374 12,837 15,960 14,191
Total Active Customers (k) 213 303 414 429
Orders per Customer 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6
Total Orders 841 1,247 1,763 1,970
Total Revenue ($MM) 48,586 73,271 102,283 116,663
Revenue Per Customer 228 242 247 272
Average Order Value 57.8 58.7 58.0 59.2

Months since acquisition

6 12 18 24 30 36
Cumulative revenue per customer, all
cohorts ($) 410 606 725 796 867 939

2014 2015 2016

6-month cumulative revenue by
acquisition cohort ($) 402 451 387

Cost of Capital Assumption

WACC (annual) 20%
WACC (monthly) 1.53%

Customer Acquisition Cost Figures (Estimates from McCarthy 2017)

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 2015 2016
Customer acquisition cost 78.2 89.9 115.0 113.1 147.7 62.77 100.04
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
25,413 32,031 49,618 37,079 60,605
649 766 907 879 1,036
4.5 4.4 4 4.2 4.1
2,903 3,399 3,597 3,674 4,273
172,098 201,924 205,452 215,942 244,843
265 264 227 246 236
59.3 59.4 57.1 58.8 57.2