Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Valuation Methodologies 14
A. Valuation Techniques 18
A. Profiles 154
2
What is Investment Banking?
Buy & Sell securities for their clients and provide stock advice
Facilitate buying and selling of stocks, bonds, options, currencies, derivatives and
Sales and Trading other financial products (Flow & Exotic)
Clients include Institutional Investors like pension funds, mutual funds, private clients/
HNI’s and individual investors, investment arms of non-finance companies
Follow stocks and make recommendations on whether to buy, sell or hold securities
Prepare Initiation Reports, Sector Reports and also Market Reports
Provide investment ideas for the Sales & Trading Group
Equity Research
Analyze and forecast economic trends, interest rate movements and other industry
level parameters and perform valuations on companies within industry sectors they
follow
Work with clients in determining financing needs and structuring specific financial
strategies
Corporate Finance /
Provide underwriting services on issue of equity or debt securities
Advisory
Provide advice on Mergers and Acquisitions, foreign exchange, economic and market
trends, and specific financial strategies such as corporate restructurings
3
Dynamics/ Relationship between various institutions
Financing M&A
Corporate Finance Corporate Finance
Chinese Wall
4
Typical Corporate Finance Deal Team
5
What do they do and how do they make money?
Investment banks perform the following major functions:
Corporate Finance & Advisory services, for which they receive fees
– Underwrite securities and provide advisory services
– Provide M&A advisory
– Provide financial advisory services to companies, governments and other agencies
Equity Research, they make money from two sources, primarily from investors / readers of the reports and
secondly, from firms they are covering for which they are paid a set annual fee in cash; they do not accept any
form of equity, which may cause conflicts of interest
– Provide information on market
– Conduct financial statement analysis and build financial models to derive a company's proper valuation
Investment banking activities tend to be more profitable than commercial banking activities; based on the fees rather
than interest rate differentials
6
What are Chinese Walls in Investment Banking?
Legal and physical separation between
investment banking and trading activities is
termed as Chinese Walls.
Corporate Finance
Includes:
Includes: Acquisitions
Initial Public Offerings (IPO) Private Company Sale
Secondary Offerings Public Company Sale
Debt Syndication Corporate Restructuring
Equity Private Placements Corporate Divestitures
Joint-Ventures
Bankers generally generate business through pitching transaction ideas to clients. “Pitch Books” - presentations the
bankers use for their clients, contain general information and include a wide variety of selling points they make to
potential clients. Pitch books almost always include valuation and research analysis on a number of companies
and/or industries
8
What are the various types of groups within an Investment Bank?
There are broadly two types of groups within a typical investment bank (or investment banking division):
Product groups: The three most well known product groups are mergers and acquisitions (M&A), leveraged
finance and restructuring.
The products of an Investment Bank, are basically advisory for M&A, Financing, Restructuring, etc., hence a
Group covering any of the above activities would be a Product group
Bankers in Product groups have product knowledge and tend to execute transactions (respectively M&A
transactions, leveraged buyouts (LBO’s) and restructuring transactions/bankruptcies).
For e.g. an M&A banker would be a specialist in deal structuring (equity or cash etc.), types of deal structures,
takeover codes (legalities, regulation) in a particular country etc .
Industry groups (also called sector groups or domains): Bankers in industry groups cover specific industries and
develop expertise in a particular sector. They tend to do more marketing activity (pitching).
Examples of common industry groups include FIG (Financial Institutions Group), Healthcare, Consumer/Retail,
Industrials, Natural Resources, TMT (Telecom, Media and Technology.. Often subgroups exist within the broader
group. For example, a Healthcare group may be segregated into biotechnology, medical devices, pharmaceuticals,
etc.
9
Bulge Bracket Banks and Corporate Finance Boutiques
Bulge Bracket Banks: The term “bulge bracket” generally refers to the large investment banks that cover most or
all industries and offer most or all of the various types of investment banking services. While there is no official list of
bulge bracket banks, some examples are BAML, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank etc.
Corporate Finance Boutiques: These are small in size, ranging from a few professionals to hundreds or even
thousands of professionals; can generally be categorized into three types:
– specializing in one or more products
– specializing in one or more industries and
– specializing in small or mid-sized deals & clients (generally less than $500 million)
Boutiques known for M&A, often compete with the bulge bracket banks for M&A transactions. A few examples
include Lazard, Greenhill, Evercore
Other boutiques offer many different products but specialize in one or more industries. Such boutiques often
compete with the bulge bracket banks on the basis of their industry knowledge and expertise. A few examples
include Cowen & Co. (healthcare), Allen & Co. (media) and Thomas Weisel Partners (technology), Avendus
(technology in India)
The third type of boutique, those that offer many products and cover many industries but compete only for “middle
market” or smaller deals include Jefferies & Co., Piper Jaffray, Raymond James. Many of these middle market
boutiques are regionally focused.
Some of the Indian boutiques are Equirus, O3, Edelweiss, Mape Advisory, Pears Capital , Numinous Consulting,
Viedea Capital
10
Top Global Investment Banks (M&A)
Worldwide Announced deals - 2010
Financial Advisor Deal Value (in $mn) Freeman Fees (in $mn) Number of Deals
Goldman Sachs & Co 425,164 1,952.8 325
Morgan Stanley 346,039 1,421.7 331
JP Morgan 330,835 1,400.3 280
Credit Suisse 327,179 1,046.4 249
Citi 299,167 729.4 185
Barclays Capital 265,094 715.6 133
Deutsche Bank AG 242,883 831.5 224
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 236,383 906.6 204
UBS 231,960 850.9 230
Lazard 188,637 845.0 259
Rothschild 127,830 746.5 245
HSBC Holdings PLC 98,194 212.0 79
Nomura 87,404 320.6 171
Evercore Partners 79,257 209.4 35
BNP Paribas SA 78,350 300.1 110
Jefferies & Co Inc 72,904 354.3 114
Greenhill & Co, LLC 70,551 202.3 47
Houlihan Lokey 61,464 349.6 167
Blackstone Group LP 54,777 169.6 41
Santander 51,225 – 47
Centerview Partners LLC 50,161 – 13
RBC Capital Markets 48,909 344.0 133
KPMG 44,578 – 327
Mizuho Financial Group 43,279 – 121
RBS 41,921 153.2 59
Source: Thomson Financial
11
Transaction Volumes
Completed Deals Worldwide: Annual Transaction Volume
Date Effective/Unconditional Deal Value (in $mn) Number of Deals
2008 1,924,659 24,890
2009 1,848,453 30,431
2010 1,893,852 32,114
2011 824,484 8,762
CLIENT
MARKETING
RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS
Investment Banks
DEAL
EXECUTION
KPO’s
13
Copal Partners
Valuation Methodologies
14
Valuation Methodologies
A. Fundamental valuation: A stand-alone valuation methodology to compute the intrinsic value of an asset
A. Fundamental Valuation:
The DCF (WACC, FTE, APV) model of valuation is a fundamental method.
Value of firm (equity) is the PV of future cash flows.
Ignores the current level of the stock market (industry).
Appropriate for comparing investments across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate,
etc).
B. Relative Valuation:
Comparable company analysis and comparable transaction analysis are relative valuation methods
Relative valuation is based on P/E ratios and a host of other “multiples”.
Can not compare value across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).
Can not answer the question “is the stock market over valued?”
Can answer the question, “I want to buy a tech stock, which one should I buy?”
Can answer the question, “Which one of these overpriced IPO’s is the best buy?”
15
Fundamental Valuation Concepts
Fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a security’s value by focusing on underlying
factors that affect a company's actual business and its future prospects.
On a broader scope, one can perform fundamental analysis on industries or the economy as a whole. The term
simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price
movements.
The various fundamental factors can be grouped into two categories: quantitative and qualitative.
– Qualitative – related to or based on the quality or character of something, often as opposed to its size or
quantity.
16
Relative Valuation Concepts
Relative valuation answers the question “How does the value of an asset compare with the values assessed by
the market for similar or comparable assets”
Absolute values of comparable assets are standardized for the purpose of comparison. Friendly – The Board
recommends the offer
– How would you compare a pencil priced at Rs.10 with another pencil priced at Rs. 20?
Standardized values – values with a common numerator – are called price multiples
Comparing the price multiples of comparable assets can give an indication of whether an asset is under or over
valued.
– If Rs.10 pencil lasts 10 days and Rs. 20 pencil lasts 16 days, is Rs. 10 pencil over or under valued compared
to the Rs. 20 pencil?
17
Copal Partners
Valuation Techniques
18
Valuation Overview
Valuation is the process of determining the current worth of an asset. Valuation answers the question “How much
will it cost to acquire the asset?”
– “What is the underlying value of the business against which debt is being issued?”
Thus, Investment banks perform valuation on firms, or parts of firms for several reasons:
– Contribution into a Join Venture or Mergers & Acquisitions (Buy side or sell side engagements)
Valuations are not scientific. It is highly dependent on a strong set of assumptions and inputs. A valuation is only
as good as the quality of inputs. Analyst look at a variety of valuation methods to quantify value.
19
Valuation Techniques
Comparable Company Analysis (Trading Comps) – Trading Comps analyze key valuation ratios of comparable
companies that are trading in the market to give an indication of what fair value is and compares firm’s financial
performance to its market value.
Comparable Transactions Analysis (Transaction Comps) – Transaction Comps analyze value based on
historical takeout multiples of comparable targets to give an indication of what one would have to pay to acquire
the company. It also includes control premium.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) – Discounted cash flow analysis is based on cash flow generation potential of
business. It uses projected cash flows in the future to determine the value of company at the present time. It
involves discounting levered / unlevered cash flows by equity cost of capital or weighted average cost of capital.
20
Copal Partners
21
Index
Table of Content
Overview 23
Key Definitions 24
Source of Information 29
Market Capitalization 41
Balance Sheet 47
Enterprise Value 58
Income Statement 61
Understanding Multiples 78
22
Overview
Comparable Company Analysis (‘comps’) is the most basic and effective valuation tool used by investment
bankers for the analysis of publicly listed companies across various industries.
This technique is used in private market valuation, IPO valuation, comparative analyses, identifying potential
targets for M&A etc
Comps establishes value of a company and measures its performance vis-à-vis the operating and trading
statistics of the company’s peer group (“comparable companies”)
Valuation metrics and financial ratios used/ analyzed vary from project to project, depending on the industry and
information available
– Share price performance parameters such as current & 52 week high/low share price, margin and long term
growth rate
These inputs define the output Multiple sheet (the comps) containing various Enterprise Value (EV) multiples.
Common valuation multiples used are EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/E, P/B
Since the comps provide multiples prevailing at a given point of time, they provide a static view of comparable
companies and can change over a period of time depending on the company’s financial performance and market
performance (stock performance)
23
Key Definitions
Market capitalization Represents the market value of all outstanding shares
Calculated as Total number of shares outstanding x current share price
Stock Options A privilege, in which the underlier is the common stock of a corporation, that
gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock at an
agreed-upon price during a certain period of time or on a specific date
A right granted to employees of a company to buy a certain amount of shares
in the company at a predetermined price. Employees typically must wait a
specified vesting period before being allowed to exercise the option
Warrants A derivative security or certificate that gives the holder/ bearer the right to
purchase securities (usually equity) from the issuer at a specific price within a
certain time frame
Convertibles Securities, usually bonds or preferred shares, that can be converted into
common stock at a specified conversion price
24
Key Definitions (cont’d)
Fully Diluted shares Represents the number of shares that would result if all stock options,
warrants and convertible debts were traded in for stock.
Treasury stock method The purpose of the Treasury method is to account for the cash generated by the
exercise of options and/or warrants
Treasury stock method assumes that the options and/or warrants are exercised
at the beginning of the year (or issue date if later) and such proceeds are used
to repurchase outstanding shares of common stock
Example
25
Key Definitions (cont’d)
Total debt Includes all interest bearing obligations both long-term and short-term such
as loans, credit facilities etc
Excludes in-the-money convertible debt
Minority Interest Represents portion of equity not owned by the majority shareholder - a
significant but non-controlling interest of less than 50%
Preferred equity Represents class of stock carrying preference over equity stake holders to
receive dividend and repayments in the event of liquidation
Capital lease A lease that transfers substantially all risks and rewards of ownership to the
lessee
Cash and cash Represents cash, marketable securities and short-term investments that can
equivalents easily be converted to cash
26
Key Definitions – Some Examples
Example 2. Which of the following statement is correct:
a) Restricted cash is always excluded from cash for calculation of net debt
b) Restricted cash, if related to debt, include in cash for calculation of net debt
c) Restricted cash, if related to Letter of credit and Bank Guarantees, include in cash for calculation of net debt
a) 470 mn
b) 485 mn
c) 473.3 mn
d) 471.6 mn
27
Key Definitions – Some Examples (cont’d)
28
Filings and Sources
Source all data from the Company’s official latest financial filings
Check Company Website, Investor Relation Section, look out for latest:
Annual Report (AR)
Quarterly / Interim / Half Yearly Report ( Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 or IR )
Press Releases and Announcements
For US companies
Annual report - SEC filing - 10K (From 10kwizard.com or www.sec.gov)
Quarterly report (SEC – 10Q)
Press releases, pro forma filings, M&A announcements (SEC filing – 8K)
Prospectus (SEC filing – 424B series)
Note: (i) Always use most recent filings for EV calculation as we are looking for the current and most
recent financial position of the company
(ii) Always use the pro-forma financials in case the company has completed a major acquisition or
divestiture
(iii) Where the company has made restatements and filed restated financials, always use such
restated financials.
29
Filings and Sources (cont’d)
Note: There are many more databases apart from the names mentioned above used by companies for
their analysis. Since these are all paid data sources, companies subscribe them according to their
work requirement.
30
Peer Group Identification
Peer Group Analysis means identifying a list of comparable companies for valuation.
The following criteria should be borne while doing the preliminary search for selecting the companies to form a
peer set:
– Similar Industry, featuring into the same sub-sector, having product categories which are related
– Same size of companies, can be identified with similar operating margins, growth rate, cash flow, number of
employees etc
– Should not be undergoing any unusual or major strategic changes, such as an M&A, divestiture
There are various sources available for Peer Analysis such as Thomson One Banker, Bloomberg, Reuters,
OneSource, Research Report, Google Finance, Company Websites (for Description), broker reports etc.
31
Equity and equity linked information – Shares
Number of shares should exclude the treasury shares or own shares. Treasury shares are shares repurchased by
the company and do not have the right to dividends, have no voting rights, and should not be included in shares
outstanding calculations.
In case of companies filing with SEC, outstanding shares can generally be found on the cover page of the 10K,
10Q, 20F report. In case of Non US companies search out for filings on various sources including Company
Website, Latest Filings and Stock Exchanges of the respective country.
Where a Company has more than one class of share, with all classes being listed, input the total of all classes of
shares in shares outstanding and calculate weighted average share price
In case, one class of share is listed and the other class of shares are unlisted, input the total of listed and unlisted
shares in shares outstanding and assume the share price of unlisted shares to be equal to that of listed shares
32
Equity and equity linked information – Shares (cont’d)
In the given example of Novell Inc, the number of shares outstanding is 353.053202 mn. This is obtained from
the cover page of 10Q Jan 2011 filing
Annotation
33
Equity and equity linked information – Shares (cont’d)
Example 4. Calculate the Market cap of ABC Co. with the available information
Particulars Details Par Value Market price
Class A Shares o/s 200 mn $10.00 $500.00
Class B Shares o/s 10 mn $100.00 Unlisted
a. $ 100,000 mn
b. $ 100,500 mn
c. $ 105,000 mn
d. $ 150,000 mn
Since Class B shares are unlisted, we will calculate the price of class B shares as follows:
Price of Class A shares / Par value of Class A shares X Par value of Class B shares
34
Equity and equity linked information – Shares (cont’d)
Example 5. Calculate the latest shares outstanding
with below mentioned data: The correct answer is (a)!!!!!!!!
35
Equity and equity linked information – Options and warrants
Input information on Options (and Warrants) from latest financials. 10K or annual filings are usually the best
source
Notes to the financials should provide detailed information on total number of Options & warrants outstanding,
traunche-wise details and the weighted average strike price on them. Ensure that the equivalent number of
shares and not “number of options or warrants” are entered
Input the ‘Options Outstanding’ and weighted average exercise price of such outstanding options and NOT the
‘Options Exercisable’
Depending on the space available in the template, input options/ warrants outstanding and weighted average
exercise price tranche-wise or in aggregate.
In case options/warrants have a range of exercise price, take the average or lower of the range for maximum
dilution effect.
Read Management Discussion & Analysis and Notes to Financial statements closely and ensure all option plans/
warrants are incorporated
36
Equity and equity linked information – Options and warrants (cont’d)
In the given example of Novell Inc, the total options (equivalent shares) outstanding are 30.933 mn, with a weighted
average exercise price of USD 3.96
37
Equity and equity linked information – Convertible debt
Input information on Convertible debt (value) from latest financials. Latest financials should provide price of
Conversion or at least the conversion ratio from where the conversion price can be deduced. If not, revert to the
previous annual report for conversion price
If convertible price of the convertible debt is not given, read the relevant notes and MD&A to figure out the
conversion ratio i.e. the number of shares into which the debt will be converted. Only “in the money” debt are
considered for weighted average exercise price of the convertible debt
While convertible debt is in the money, it will be treated as equity, once it falls out of the money it will be added
back to debt
Depending on the space available in the template, input convertible debt and conversion price tranche-wise or in
aggregate.
38
Equity and equity linked information – Convertible debt (cont’d)
Example 6
Current share price $ 50
Book value of Convertible debt $ 200 mn
Conversion price per share $ 40
Equivalent shares on conversion of in-the-money 200/ 40 = 50 shares
convertible debt
Example 7
Current share price $ 50
Book value of convertible debt (par value $1000 each) $ 100 mn
Conversion ratio 16
Conversion price per share of convertible debt $ 1000/ 16 = $ 62.5
(out of money and hence added to debt)
39
Equity and equity linked information – Convertible debt (cont’d)
Example 8. If a company has convertible debt of US$100 mn with a conversion price of US$ 50.00, the company's
current price is US$ 51.00, which of the following treatment is correct:
d) Include equivalent number of shares in shares outstanding and do not include US$100 mn in net debt
When the convertible debt is converted into equity shares, the liability for the debt is eliminated and the number of
common equity shares is increased
40
Market Capitalization
Dual Listing
When a security is registered for trading on more than one exchange. The treatment of dual listed companies
depends upon the specifications of the end user . However, the two common treatments of dual listed companies are
as follows:
Treatment 1 : In certain cases, weighted average market capitalization is calculated by adding the product of
share prices prevailing on both the exchanges & shares outstanding for respective classes of shares
Treatment 2 : Output for both the classes of securities is shown separately. Market Capitalization is calculated
using the share price on each exchange. For example, in case of Chinese companies which are also listed on
Hong Kong stock exchange, will have inflated prices on Chinese stock exchange, so it is better to analyze them
using both the classes of shares separately.
Market Cap, EV and multiples for different class of shares are calculated as:
Market Capitalization: Market Capitalization to be calculated for both class of shares using share outstanding for
each class and their respective share price
Net Debt : Bifurcate total net debt into two classes of shares based on proportion of market cap
Enterprise Value: Calculate EV (Market cap + Net debt for respective class) and EV per share for each class
Multiples: Calculate per share value of relevant financial metrics (Revenue, EBIT, EBITDA, EPS)
Calculate multiples for each class separately using EV per share for each class and per share financials as
calculated
41
Market Capitalization (cont’d)
Example 11
As at 31 Mar 11
Net Debt CNY 4,250 mn
Minority Interest CNY 20,500 mn
LTM Revenue CNY 82,000 mn
LTM EBIT CNY 33,000 mn
LTM EBITDA CNY 41,500 mn
LTM EPS CNY 1.04
42
Market Capitalization (cont’d)
Step 1. Calculation of Market Cap, EV and Multiples for both the class of shares
Class A Class H
Share Price CNY 50.00 HKD 35.00
Shares outstanding 16,500 mn 3,400 mn
Market Cap CNY825,000 mn HKD 11,9000 mn
Market Cap (CNY) CNY825,000 mn CNY 106,565 mn (approx.)
Proportion of Market Cap 88.56% 11.44%
Net Debt (In proportion of Market Cap) CNY 3,763.8 mn CNY 486.1 mn
Minority Interest CNY 18,154.9 mn CNY 2,345.1 mn
Enterprise Value CNY 846,919 mn (approx.) CNY 109,396 mn (approx.)
EV / Share CNY 51.33 CNY 32.18
43
Market Capitalization (cont’d)
44
Market Capitalization (cont’d)
Example 12.
XYZ Inc. has 250 mn shares outstanding as at 31 Dec 2010. The company’s also has its ADRs listed at NYSE
45
Market Capitalization (cont’d)
The correct answer is (a) !!!!!
46
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Consolidated Balance sheet as at 31 Jan 2011
Novell Inc Includes cash and bank balances
(amounts in thousands) Includes cash equivalents & marketable securities
Includes short-term investments
47
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Total Debt
Debt includes all interest bearing liabilities (long term and short term) of the Company i.e. obligations that have a
financing cost to the company (such as Bank overdrafts / Current portion of long term borrowings / short term and
long term loans / Convertible debts)
Consider Capital lease obligation ONLY if it is stated in the Balance Sheet. Do not confuse capital lease
obligations with the operating lease obligations. The latter is an expense item in the income statement
Read the MD&A and Notes to financial statements closely as sometimes ‘Minority Interest’ is not represented in
the Balance Sheet as a separate item but is given in the ‘Other Liabilities’
Include pension liabilities (deficit) in debt, only if specific guidelines have been given to that effect. Pension deficit
is the value of all pension obligations minus the market value of any pension assets
– In case of a US Company: US GAAP has the requirement for the company to give a separate note for Pension
assets and pension liabilities. Pension deficit is = Pension Liabilities Less Pension Assets
– For a company in UK: FRS 17 gives the accounting policy for a separate disclosure of pension deficit
– For other companies: Read the MD&A and Notes to financial statements and determine accordingly
– Always consider Net Pension Liability recognized in the balance sheet or Unfunded or Deficit in Pension Fund.
In case company reports surplus ie Pension Assets are more than Liabilities, ignore it.
Remember to exclude in-the-money convertible debt and include out of money convertible debt in total debt
48
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Consolidated Balance sheet as on 31 Jan 2011
Novell Inc
(amounts in thousands)
In the given example, the total debt for EV
calculation shall be:
Senior Convertible Debenture
(Add minority interest if reported
separately)
Shareholders’ equity
Input from the latest financials the book value of shareholders’ equity or stockholders’ equity.
49
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Long Term Investments
Read the note for Long term investment and check whether company has invested in private unquoted company
or in Quoted/ Listed/ Traded company or in mutual funds or government stocks.
Consider the long term investment in public company, mutual funds and government stocks as their market value
can be assessed easily. Ignore any invest done in private or unquoted company.
Remember for the ultimate effect, long term investment is treated as a part of cash and cash equivalents and gets
excluded from EV.
Equity Investments
Includes Investment in Affiliates / Subsidiaries / Joint Ventures / Associated Company / Equity Affiliates
Mostly Company reports equity investments as a separate line item in their balance sheet.
Consider all equity investments irrespective of short term or long term or quoted or unquoted.
Remember for the ultimate effect, long term investment is treated as a part of cash and cash equivalents and gets
excluded from EV.
50
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Check the note for Non Current Investment – Long Term and consider only the portion invested in Quoted/ Listed/
Traded company or in mutual funds or government stocks.
51
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Balance Sheet Information – Adjustments
The latest financial publication is used to determine Enterprise value. However, there are certain corporate actions,
which if they occur subsequent to the date of the latest filing, have to be given effect as these have an impact on the
Enterprise value. A few of these adjustments include:
Stock Split : A stock split is a corporate action involving the dividing of company’s existing stock into multiple shares.
This is effected by reducing the par value of shares and increasing the number of shares. The Shareholders’ equity
remains the same. Adjustments to be effected include:.
Increase the number of outstanding shares
Check that the stock price is split-adjusted
Increase the number of equivalent shares on conversion of options and reduce (in the same ratio) the exercise
price
Similar effect on warrants and convertible debt (exercise price)
Equity issue : In case a company makes a fresh additional equity issue, the following adjustments have to be made:
Increase the number of shares outstanding by the fresh number of shares issued
Increase shareholders’ equity by issue value
Increase cash by the “net proceeds” of the issue
Check for pro forma filings
Stock Buyback : When a company repurchases the shares it had previously issued, it is called a ‘Stock buyback’.
This reduces the number of shares outstanding in the market. Adjustments to be effected include:
Decrease the number of shares outstanding by the number of shares repurchased
Decrease cash by the amount used to repurchase shares
Reduce shareholders’ equity by value of treasury stock repurchased
52
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Balance Sheet Information – Adjustments
Debt Issue : A Company when in need of funds, can raise Debt as a source of funds. It may be preferable than issue
of shares as debt issue leads to no dilution of control of company. Adjustments include:
Add the ‘Net proceeds’ to Cash. Net Proceeds means proceeds received, net of any discount and expenses of
issue.
Add the face value of the debt to the Total debt
Rights Issue: If the company decides to issue additional shares (equity) as a source of raising additional capital, it
may be obliged to first offer such shares (or rights) to the existing shareholders. In effect , the number of shares
outstanding increases. Adjustments similar to equity issue.
Bonus Issue: In the case of a bonus issue, equity shares are issued to existing shareholders for no additional
consideration. It is also called a capitalization issue. There is no effect on shareholders’ equity. Adjustments are to be
made to outstanding shares, options/ warrants and corresponding exercise prices with respect to bonus factor.
Stock Dividend: A dividend is the distribution of profits to a company's shareholders. Such distribution can be in the
form of cash or issue of stock ( i.e. Stock Dividend). In the case of stock dividend additional shares are issued to
existing shareholders without any receipt of cash from them. There is no effect on shareholders’ equity. Adjustments
are to be made to outstanding shares, options/ warrants and corresponding exercise prices
53
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
Example 9. A company announced a two for one stock split and a stock dividend of 25% on 10 May 2011 ( i.e. after
the release of results for Q1 Mar 2011):
54
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
55
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
(Convertible notes included in Long term debt $ 50mn, conversion price $20 per share)
56
Balance Sheet (cont’d)
(in USD mn) Particulars Cash Short term Long Term Total Debt
debt Debt
Balance as on 31 150 50 200 250
Dec 10
57
Enterprise Value
Formula to calculate Enterprise Value Total Enterprise Value (TEV or EV) is the term bankers use when they
refer to the total value of a company (also referred to as Aggregate
Value)
Market Capitalization
+ Enterprise value is a measure of the actual economic value of a
company at a given point of time. It reflects what it would actually cost to
Total Debt purchase the entire company
+
Minority Interest One could believe that a possible way to calculate the value of a
+ company would be to look at the value of the assets in the company’s
balance sheet. This is a common misconception because the assets in
Preferred Stock the balance sheet are recorded using the historical value and thus it is
+ not the value the company has today
Capital Leases
Generally for public companies TEV = market value of the equity + total
-
debt (short and long term) + minority interest + preferred stock + capital
Cash & Cash Equivalents leases – cash and cash equivalents
=
Enterprise Value or The method and assumptions for calculation of enterprise value varies
“EV” with every financial institution, banker and industry
58
Enterprise Value vis-à-vis Market cap
Enterprise value
reflects the actual purchase price anyone acquiring the company would have to pay
many investors use the current value of all of a company's outstanding shares or market capitalization, as a
proxy for its economic value
Although market capitalization is the key component of the actual economic value of a company, it is not the only
one. In order to calculate a more ‘Accurate value’ we need to consider the other things which come as a baggage
along with the company when it is acquired. We have to take into account all the obligations which are now to be
discharged by the acquirer
In the event of a buyout, the buyer has to pay the equity value and would have to assume/ repay the company’s debt.
Of course, the buyer gets to keep the cash available with the firm, which is why cash needs to be deducted from the
firm's price
59
Enterprise Value
Example 1. What is the Market Cap & EV for the company:
Enterprise Value (CNY mn) = Market Cap + Debt + Minority Interest – Cash
60
Income Statement
Revenue/ Net Sales: Income from sales of goods and services, minus the cost associated with elements such as
returned or undeliverable merchandise, discounts, and allowances. Also called ‘sales revenue’, ‘net sales’, ‘net
revenue’, and ‘sales’
Other revenues: The total revenues which the company has earned may include other revenues incidental to
business. These are revenues derived from activities not directly related to the operations of the Company and
therefore should not be included in turnover. For instance, Rental income should not be included in turnover.
However, revenues of real estate companies will primarily consist of rental income. Therefore, identify the
Company’s business and decide the composition of revenues accordingly
EBITDA: EBITDA means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It is an indicator of the
cash earnings that a company generates from its on going and recurrent operations regardless of its capital
structure. EBITDA can be used to analyze the profitability between companies and industries, because it
eliminates the effects of financing and accounting decisions. (EBITDA is often used as an indicator of unlevered
cash flow in case of scarce information).
EBIT: EBIT means earnings before interest and taxes. It measures the income that a company generates from its
on going and recurrent operations. Also called Operating Income or Income from Operations
Net Income: Net Income represents total earnings available to common shareholders. Net Income is derived by
subtracting all costs of doing business, depreciation, interest and taxes from revenues. Share of minorities for the
period and preferred stock dividends, must also be deducted to arrive at Net Income.
61
Income Statement (cont’d)
Normalization refers to the process of adjusting/ removing the effect of extraordinary and one-time items from
components of Income Statement (revenues, EBITDA, EBITA, EBIT & Net Income)
For the purpose of Comps, companies have to be evaluated and compared on basis of trading / valuation metrics
and thereby it is imperative that any exceptional and non-recurring items impacting the operating results of a
company be removed and cleaned, so as to make its results comparable within its peer group
Some examples of exceptional / non-recurring items include restructuring charges, impairment, gain on sale of
fixed assets, income from divested business etc
Always read through the Notes to Financial Statements and MD&A closely to identify extraordinary items.
Details of exceptional items are generally found in the Notes to financial statements and MD&A
– For adjusted net income, make appropriate tax adjustments for the tax impact of such extraordinary items. Read
the MD&A closely for actual tax impact of exceptionals, if available. If not, use the marginal tax rate for making tax
adjustments. Marginal Tax rate should be effective or statutory tax rate.
62
Income Statement (cont’d)
Income Statement Information
Let us consider the case of Novell Inc.
If you look at the Consolidated Statement of
Example: Normalized Revenue
Operations you would say that the company’s
revenue for FY 2010 would be USD 811.871 mn.
63
Income Statement (cont’d)
Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized EBIT
The Company states that its operating income
was USD 84.437 mn Is this equal to EBIT? No!
EBITDA is calculated as
Normalized EBIT + Depreciation and
Amortization
65
Income Statement (cont’d)
Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized Net Income
66
Income Statement (cont’d)
Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized Net Income
Adjust for Tax : Always remember that when you are dealing with net income you have to account for the tax
implications of an increase or decrease in profits. Net income is always calculated after taxes, and in a way
expenses act as a tax shield, as the higher expenses you have the less taxes you pay.
Thus, One time and extraordinary charges have to be adjusted for tax. Here, we shall use the statutory tax rate of the
country of incorporation of the Company (which is 40% in case of Novell Inc. as it is a US company )
There are certain cases we need to remember when we charge Net Income for tax such as –
1. Always charge Exceptional or one off items for tax whenever company is reporting net profit in its books.
2. In case company is reporting net loss, tax adjustment is done only if loss turns into profit after adjusting for
exceptional items and than tax is charged on the whole figure including net loss.
3. If the resulting figure for net loss remains negative even after adjusting exceptional items, there will be no tax
adjustment at all.
4. Remember to tax-effect all adjustments to net income, if items relate to an after-tax financial statistic and are
tax-deductible. Do not tax adjust a net loss or non-tax deductible items such as goodwill
Therefore, the adjusted Net Income = 377.366 + ( -7.413+2.774)* (1- 0.40) = $ 374.582 mn
67
Income Statement (cont’d)
Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) represents the portion of a company's earnings, net of taxes and preferred stock
dividends, but before equity dividends allocated to each share of the company’s common stock
68
Pro-forma Financials
Companies may acquire or divest businesses during the year
Pro-forma financials means restated financials of the company adjusted to give effect to any corporate actions so
as to reflect the continuing financials position of the company going forward
– Acquisitions
– Mergers
– Divestitures
– Spin offs
– Capital Restructuring
69
Pro-forma Financials (cont’d)
How to identify whether Pro-forma financials to be done
70
Pro-forma Financials (cont’d)
1. In case the pro forma financials
are reported by the company –
use them for your analysis to
know the current position of the
company
71
Pro-forma Financials (cont’d)
2. If pro-forma financials are not reported by the company, calculate it by adding financials of the acquired company in
case of acquisition and exclude the financials of the divested business in case of a divestiture
Question.
On 15 Dec 10, ABC Ltd announced the acquisition of XYZ plc. The acquisition was completed on 12 February 2011.
Now, in case ABC does not release proforma financials adjusted for the acquisition of XYZ for its Fiscal year ended 31
Dec 10, then we may calculate the proforma financials of the combined entity by adding the financials of ABC and XYZ
for the fiscal year ended 31 Dec 10
72
Income Statement Information – Indicative exceptional list
S. No. Line item Add Back Tax adjustment Comment
1 Joint Venture Y Y Different treatment for different purposes
2 Discontinued operations Y Y No tax adjustment if net of tax
3 Restructuring cost / expenses Y Y
4 Expenses related to merger and acquisition transactions Y Y
Write down / Impairment of assets (both tangibles and intangibles
5 Y Y No tax adjustment on Goodwill
including goodwill)
6 Impairment of leasehold expenses Y Y
7 Loss / Gain on sale of tangible & intangible assets Y Y
8 Loss / Gain on sale of investments, other than marketable Y/N Y Loss/ Gain on strategic investment is exceptional
9 Amortization of deferred compensation Y Y
10 Equity based compensation expense- stock options or warrants Y Y
11 Writing back of any provisions or reserves Y/N Y Provision is exceptional or not
12 Gain/Loss on sale of marketable securities N
13 Income from associates / affiliates Y Y
14 Litigation settlement Y Y
15 Loss / Gain on sale or termination of an operation Y Y No tax adjustment if net of tax
16 Foreign currency exchange gain / loss Y Y
17 Accounting changes Y/N Cumulative effect relating to exceptions is exceptional
18 Tax benefit from exercise of options Y N
19 Provision for doubtful accounts N N
20 Amortization of debt issuance costs Y Y
21 Expenses associated with the Sarbanes Oxley Act Y Y
22 Rental income N N To be excluded from EBIT calculations
23 Government grants or subsidies Y Y
24 Severance costs Y Y
25 Facilities consolidation Y Y Restructuring expense
26 Gain / Loss on early extinguishment of debt Y Y
27 Early retirement costs Y
28 Redundancy costs Y Y
29 Donations Y Y
30 Amortization of Negative goodwill Y N
Item can be treated as exceptional or normal depending upon the industry and analysis
73
LTM & Calendarization
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM / LTM)
A Graphical Representation There will be times when the most recent company
financial statement is a quarterly report or a half-year
LTM Results report. In such cases the results for the last twelve months/
trailing twelve months are derived.
74
LTM & Calendarization (cont’d)
Example 13: If LTM Sales need to be calculated (for a company with Dec FYE) as in March‘11, calculate the
LTM sales from the below mentioned data:
75
LTM & Calendarization (cont’d)
Earnings estimates are obtained from various broker research reports or databases such as Bloomberg, Capital
IQ, Factset estimates. Adjust the earnings estimates for any exceptionals
For the purpose of deriving trading multiples, estimates are determined on a calendar year basis. This is done to
ensure consistency and enhance comparability within comps
In case of companies with fiscal year end other than December, the forecasted estimates are “calendarized”.
Calendarization is the process of prorating estimates that are available on fiscal year basis, to derive estimates on
a calendar year basis.
76
LTM & Calendarization (cont’d)
Output currency
Find out the output currency in which the figures are to be reported. The output flows in the desired currency when
we input the relevant exchange rates ( i.e. Local currency to the desired currency). This is done to ensure
consistency and enhance comparability within comps
Average exchange rate for income statement figures for the relevant fiscal years
Example: If the fiscal year of a company ends in September 2010 (Local currency being USD and Desired
currency being EUR) the exchange rate to be used will be USD - EUR average conversion rate from 1st
October 2009 to 30th September 2010
Ques: Which of the following exchange rates will be used for converting Net debt outstanding as on 31 Dec 10
(FYE) for the comparable company analysis being done on 31 Mar 11
(a) Average exchange rate for FYE 31 Dec 10 (b) Spot exchange rate as on 31 Dec 10
(c) Spot exchange rate as on 31 Mar 11 (d) Average exchange rate for the quarter ended 31 Dec 10
77
Understanding Multiples
Multiples are ratios with equity value (Price) or enterprise value (EV) in the numerator and a standardizing factor
(Earnings, Sales, Book Value, etc.) in the denominator.
– EV/EBIT
– EV/EBITDA
– EV/Cash Flow
– EV/Sales
– P / Book value
Both the value (the numerator) and the standardizing factor ( the denominator) in multiples represent the same
claimholders in the firm
– For instance, value of equity is standardized with equity earnings, and enterprise value (value of entire firm) is
standardized with EBITDA or book value of assets
For multiples to make sense, the standardizing factor (earnings, EBITDA, etc) must be computed using same
accounting rules across all firms being compared
78
Multiples – Example 1
Example 1. Please calculate Sales, EBITDA, EBIT and P/E multiple:
Share Price20.00
Correct answer is (b)!!!!!!…
Market Cap10,000
Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Debt +
Debt 250 Minority Interest – Cash
EPS 0.75
79
Using Multiples
– Same multiples can be computed differently. For instance, P/E can be computed as Price/LTM Earnings,
Price/Fiscal Year Earnings, or Price/Forward Earnings Estimate
– It can be all firms in a sector, industry, entire market, or any subset thereof
Understand the fundamentals (growth, risk, profit margin, etc. ) that drive the multiple, and the nature of the
relationship between the multiple and each fundamental variable
– The relationship between a fundamental (like growth) and a multiple (such as PE) is seldom linear. For
example, if firm A has twice the growth rate of firm B, it will generally not trade at twice its PE ratio
– It is impossible to properly compare firms on a multiple, if we do not know the nature of the relationship
between fundamentals and the multiple
80
Price/Earnings (PE Ratio)
There are a number of variants on the basic PE ratio, based upon how the price and the earnings are defined
– Though some like to use average price over last 6 months or year
– Time variants: EPS in most recent financial year (current), EPS in most recent four quarters (trailing), EPS
expected in next fiscal year or next four quarters (both called forward) or EPS in some future year
– EPS measured using different accounting rules for outstanding shares (options expensed or not, pension fund
income counted or not, etc)
81
Multiples – Example 2
Example 2. Calculate the Basic P/E, Diluted P/E, adjusted Basic P/E & adjusted Diluted P/E multiple with the
following information:
(all figures in US$ mn except share data)
Share price $10.00
Shares outstanding 1,000
Wtd. Avg. shares outstanding (Basic) 950
Wtd. Avg. shares outstanding (Diluted) 990
Revenue 5,000
Restructuring charges 1,000
One-time Insurance recoveries 500
Non-recurring charges 300
EBIT 1,500
Interest Expenses 500
Reported Net Income 500
(after adjusting tax @30%)
a) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 19.00x, Adj. Diluted P/E 19.80x
b) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 8.96x, Adj. Diluted P/E 9.34x
c) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 7.31x, Adj. Diluted P/E 7.62x
d) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 4.13x, Adj. Diluted P/E 4.30x
82
Multiples – Example 2 (cont’d)
Adjusted net income = Net income + Restructuring charges* - One-time Insurance recoveries* + Non-recurring
charges*
Reported Basic EPS = 500/950 = US$ 0.53 Reported Diluted EPS = 500/990 = US$ 0.51
Adjusted Basic EPS = 1,060/950 = US$ 1.12 Adjusted Diluted EPS = 1,060/990 = US$ 1.07
Reported Basic P/E = 10.00/0.53 = 19.00x Reported Diluted P/E = 10.00/0.51 = 19.80x
Adjusted Basic P/E = 10.00/1.12 = 8.96 x Adjusted Diluted P/E = 10.00/1.07 = 9.34x
83
PE Fundamentals
To understand the fundamentals, start with a basic equity discounted cash flow model
DPS1
P0 =
r−g
– Where, DPS1 is dividends per share next year, r is equity risk, and g is perpetual growth rate
– Higher growth firms will have higher PE ratios than lower growth firms
– Higher risk firms will have lower PE ratios than lower risk firms
– Firms with lower reinvestment needs will have higher PE ratios than firms with higher reinvestment rates
84
Enterprise Value (EV) Ratios
While Price earnings ratios look at the market value of equity relative to earnings to equity investors, Enterprise
Value ratios look at total value of the firm relative to total operating earnings or free cash flows
The form of value to cash flow ratios that has the closest parallels in DCF valuation is the value to Free Cash
Flow to the Firm, which is defined as:
– EV/FCFF
85
Multiples – Example 3
Example 3. What is the EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and EV/FCFF for the company:
(all figures in US$ mn)
Share Data Income Statement
Share Price $5.00 Revenue 1,000
Shares outstanding 1,000 COGS 270
Balance Sheet SG&A 200
Cash 200 R&D 50
Debt 175 Restructuring expenses 30
Minority Interest 50 EBIT 450
Tax rate 30.0%
Cash Flow Statement
Depreciation 50
Amortization of intangibles 50
Capex 100
Change in Working Capital (75)
86
Multiples – Example 3 (cont’d)
Correct answer is (c) !!!!!…
FCFF = Adj. EBIT * (1 - tax rate) – (Capex – D&A) – Change in working capital
87
EV Ratio Alternatives
Most analysts find FCFF to complex or messy to use in multiples (partly because capital expenditures and
working capital have to be estimated) They use modified versions of the multiple with the following alternative
denominators such as EBIT or EBITDA
Assume that you have computed the value of a firm, using discounted cash flow models. Rank the following
multiples in the order of magnitude from lowest to highest?
– EV/EBIT
– EV/EBITDA
– EV/FCFF
88
Why use EV/EBITDA?
It can be computed even for firms that are reporting net losses, since earnings before interest, taxes and
depreciation are usually positive
For firms in certain industries, such as cellular, which require a substantial investment in infrastructure and long
gestation periods, this multiple seems to be more appropriate than the price/earnings ratio
In leveraged buyouts, where the key factor is cash generated by the firm prior to all discretionary expenditures,
the EBITDA is the measure of cash flows from operations that can be used to support debt payment at least in
the short term
By looking at cash flows prior to capital expenditures, it may provide a better estimate of “optimal value”,
especially if the capital expenditures are unwise or earn substandard returns.
By looking at the value of the firm and cash flows to the firm it allows for comparisons across firms with different
financial leverage.
89
Other Common Ratios
Price/Book Value: ratio of market value of equity to the book value of equity, i.e., the measure of shareholders’
equity in the balance sheet
– If the market value of equity refers to the market value of equity of common stock outstanding, the book value
of common equity should be used in the denominator
– If there is more than one class of common stock outstanding, the market values of all classes (even the non-
traded classes) needs to be factored in.
EV/Book Value: ratio of sum of market value of equity and market value of debt to sum of book value of equity
and book value of debt
90
Choosing Between Multiples
There are dozens of multiples that can be potentially used to value an individual firm. In addition, relative
valuation can be relative to a sector (or comparable firms) or to the entire market (using the regressions, for
instance). However, since there can be only one final estimate of value, there are three options:
– Use a simple average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
– Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
– Choose one of the multiples and base your valuation on that multiple
The best approach is to choose a set of relevant multiples that make most sense for that industry or sector, given
how value is measured and created
91
Sector Multiples
High Tech, High Growth PEG (PE/Growth Rate) Big differences in growth across firms
92
Things to check
Numbers across the years are in line, both historicals and forecast
– Different currency
– Different company
– Restatements
93
Obvious errors
94
Copal Partners
95
Index
Table of Content
Introduction 97
Transactions Overview 98
96
Introduction
Transaction Comps is a valuation tool to look at the precedent transactions in a specific sector
Precedent transaction comps is the analysis of M&A Deals which have already taken place in past.
It involves valuing the target company based on relative prices (or multiples) paid for similar business in the past
The financial ratios and values analyzed vary from project to project, depending on the industry and information
available
– Transaction overview (Announcement and closing date, Target name, Acquirer name)
These inputs define the output Multiple sheet containing various Enterprise Value (EV) multiples
Unlike trading comps, precedent transactions multiple contain an element of control premium paid by the acquirer
to gain control over target company
97
Transaction overview
Announcement Date
This is the day the transaction is announced by the company. The source should be the official company press
release/ stock exchange announcements/ Merger documents etc
The date on which company revises its original offer. The source should be the official company press release/
Merger documents etc. In case of any amendment in deal, always new offer is considered for analysis.
Target Name
Acquirer
Date Completed
Date the company announced that the transaction was successfully closed
Source should be acquirer's/ seller’s/ target’s press release or filings after the date of close of the deal
* Note: Terminated deals are generally excluded from analysis, unless specifically required
98
M&A Deals Identification
M&A Deal Run means identifying a list of comparable precedent (which have already been done in past)
transactions in specific sector or industry for valuation or acquisition purposes. For Deal Run all targets should
belong to same industry.
Specify Region / Country target companies should belong to. For e.g. searching out deals in Beverages Industry
on Global level or restricting search to Asia Pacific region or may be Europe only.
Other criterions can be considering a set Deal Value range. Such as deals should have Deal Value ranging from
US$100 mn to US$1,500 mn for a particular time period such as last 5 years.
There are various sources available for extracting Deal Run such as Thomson One Banker, Bloomberg.
After doing the preliminary search like understanding industry or the product for which past deals are required,
check various sources mentioned above for M&A Deal Run by doing industry specific or company specific search
and extract list of comparable past deals for transaction comps valuation.
99
Transaction Value
Offer Value =
Transaction Value =
Offer Value + Total Debt* + Pref. Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Equiv.
*Total Debt excludes convertible securities that are assumed to convert into common shares (do not double count)
100
Types of Consideration
Combination of cash and stock consideration (either lump-sum or per share stock and cash)
*There may be other forms of consideration like issue of loan notes or other debt instruments by the acquirer or asset swaps
101
Types of Consideration (cont’d)
The acquiror might pay a lump sum cash to acquire the target
Example 1.
No!!!!!
* Milestone payments are contingent considerations, so they are generally not considered as part of Equity Value
102
Types of Consideration (cont’d)
For Lump sum stock consideration, the Equity Value can be calculated as follows:
Number of acquirer shares issued X Acquirer's share price 1 day prior to date of announcement /
% stake acquired
Example 2.
Concord EFS and Star Systems to Merge
How will we calculate the Equity Value in this case??
MEMPHIS, Tenn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 9, 2008
Concord EFS, Inc. (Nasdaq: CEFT), a leading electronic
Equity Value = commerce processor, and Star Systems, Inc., the largest PIN-
secured payments network in the U.S., today announced that
they have entered into a merger agreement pursuant to which
Number of share issued as consideration = 24.75 mn Star Systems would become a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Concord. Concord currently owns the MAC(R) EFT network,
X Concord share price as on October 8, 2008 = $34.50 which provides services to over 3,300 financial institutions
primarily in the Northeast and Midwest. The STAR (sm)
network has 3,500 financial institution members, and operates
/ % stake acquired i.e. 100%
primarily in 22 states in the West, Southwest, and Southeast,
plus the District of Columbia. In connection with the closing of
Equity Value = USD 854 mn the merger, Concord will issue 24.75 million shares of common
stock for all of the outstanding shares of Star Systems' common
stock.
Other Information
103
Types of Consideration (cont’d)
In case acquirer pays cash consideration per target share, the Equity Value can be calculated as follows:
Example 3.
Nokia to Acquire NAVTEQ
Calculate the Equity Value in this case??
The combined entity would create a leading global player in the
fast growing location based services market NAVTEQ to
support existing customers as before
Equity Value =
CHICAGO, Oct. 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Nokia and
NAVTEQ today announced a definitive agreement for Nokia to
Navteq shares outstanding = 98.8 mn acquire NAVTEQ. Under the terms of the agreement, Nokia will
+ Dilution impact of options = 4.54 mn pay $78 in cash for each share of NAVTEQ including
outstanding options for an aggregate purchase price of
Total Diluted shares outstanding =103.34 mn approximately $8.1 billion (euro 5.7 billion), or approximately
$7.7 billion (euro 5.4 billion) net of NAVTEQ existing cash
balance. The acquisition has been approved by the board of
Offer price per share = $78.00 directors of each company and is subject to customary closing
conditions including regulatory approvals and NAVTEQ
Equity value = $ 103.74 * 78 = $8,060 mn shareholders' approval.
Other Information
Target share outstanding as on date of announcement X Exchange ratio X Acquirer's share price 1 day prior to
date of announcement
Example 4.
State Street to Acquire Investors Financial Services Corporation
05/02/2007
BOSTON, February 5, 2007 – State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), the world's leading provider of financial services to institutional
investors, announced today that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Investors Financial Services Corporation (NASDAQ:
IFIN). In the transaction, Investors Financial Services Corporation shareholders will receive 0.906 shares of State Street common stock
for each share of Investors Financial Services Corporation common stock, based upon the closing price of State Street common stock
on February 2, 2007
Equity value =
IFS Shares outstanding as on date of announcement + Dilution impact of options = 65.99 mn + 2.98 mn = 68.97 mn
Equity Value = Total Diluted shares outstanding X Exchange ratio State Street share price as on 2 Feb 07 (last trading day
prior to announcement)
Equity value = 68.97*0.906*71.75 = $ 4,483.43 mn
105
Types of Consideration (cont’d)
Thomson and Reuters in Discussions to Form Global Leader in Business-Business Information Services
Other information:
Reuters shares o/s as on May 4, 2007 1,256.56 mn
Dilution impact of options 16.05 mn shares
Thomson share price as on 3 May 07 CAD 48.46
GBP-CAD exchange rate as on 3 May 07 2.19795
Equity value = (Reuters Shares o/s + Dilution Impact of Options) X (Thomson Share price one day prior to
announcement X Exchange Ratio + Cash per share)
= (1,256.56+16.05)*((48.46/2.19795*0.16)+3.525)
Equity value = GBP 8,975 mn
106
Target Financials – Sources
We can divide transaction comps in three sections viz basic transaction data, deal consideration and financial
multiples.
Transaction comps look out for the status of target company as on the Date of Announcement i.e. what was the
EV and other relevant multiples as on that date.
For Multiple calculations, please cross check the financials or filings to be used.
Multiples vary and depend from industry to industry for which analysis is being conducted.
For calculating financials, use the latest filings available just before the Date of Announcement. For example, if
DOA is 25 April 09, consider AR Dec 08 and IR Mar 09 filings. Also, please check whether calculating LFY or LTM
multiples. The former filings will be used for calculating LTM multiples. In case of LFY multiples use IR Mar 09 for
EV calculations and consider only AR for Income Statement.
In case of Amendment, consider the latest filings available as per the Date of Amendment and not the initial date.
For Examples DOA is 17 May 08, later on deal got revised on 21 July 08, consider AR Dec 07 and IR June 08 for
financials and not IR Mar 08.
Calculation and adjustments of EV and Income Statement Normalization is similar as it is done for Trading
Comps.
107
Target Financials – Sources (cont’d)
Offer Document
Press Releases
Offer Document
Brokers Reports
108
Target Financials – LTMs
Refers to the last twelve months financials of the target prior to the announced date. LTM is calculated as under:
+ financial results for the accumulated current partial year result (stub period)
- financial results for the corresponding stub period (partial year) of the previous year (i.e. for the same period but
for the previous year)
LTM Results
Reported Reported
previous year accumulated
accumulated 6 current year 6
month results month results
109
Premium Analysis
Premium (%) = (Offer Price / Target Price) – 1
Generally acquirer would offer to acquire the target a value more than its current trading price. The excess of offer
price over current trading price is the control premium for the target
Use unaffected stock price of target for calculating the premium i.e. prior to announcement of possible acquisition
Example 6.
On May 5, 2010, A announced to acquire B for a cash consideration of USD 15 per share. B’s share price as on May
4, 2010 was USD 12. Here premium paid by the acquiror is 25%
But in this case had there been some rumor in the market since February 5, 2010, and B’s share price as on
February 4, 2010 was USD 10, then premium should be 50%
Case 1. Premium = (Offer Price / Target Price on last trading day prior to announcement) – 1
= ($15-$12)/$12 - 1
= 25%
Case 2. Premium = (Offer Price / Target Price on last trading day prior to rumor in public) – 1
= ($15-$10)/$10 - 1
= 50%
110
Amendment of Deal Terms
In case deal terms gets amended after initial announcement, use final deal terms for valuation
Target’s LTM financials will be taken with respect to date of announcement of final deal terms
Example:
On May 5, 2010, A announced to acquire B for a cash consideration of 0.5 A shares per B share. On July 6, 2010,
the consideration was increased to 0.55 A shares per B share and further increased to 0.60 A shares on October
6, 2010.
A B
$11.40
111
Copal Partners
DCF Valuation
112
Index
Table of Content
113
Time Value of Money
Let’s review the three main concepts used in DCF-based valuation
– Cash flows
– Perpetuities
– Discount rate
Cost of Capital
– Cost of Equity
– CAPM
– Cost of Debt
– WACC
114
Time Value of Money (cont’d)
Conclusion: Rs. 2 Crore today is greater than Rs. 3 Crore in exactly 5 years!
115
Time Value of Money (cont’d)
But how much is Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years worth today?
– Alternatively, how much money deposited at 10% today will equal Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years?
3
X=
(1 + 10%)5
X = 1.86 Crore
The amount of Rs. 1.86 Crore is known as the Present Value of Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years
116
Present Value
A “cashflow” is time-dated money
– It consists of an amount (in some currency), a date (or a point in time), and a sign (positive or negative)
In order to compare different cashflows, we convert all future cashflows to their present values
Use:
Ct =i
PVt =0 =
(1 + rt =i ) i
A simplification of PV formula
– Assume r is same for all time intervals (years)
Ct = i
PVt =0 =
(1 + r ) i
117
Present Value (cont’d)
Example 1: One future cashflow
What is the present value of US $100,000 received in year 10 if the discount rate (for ten-year horizons) is 12%
$100,000
PV = ?? Year 5 Year 10
100,000
Present Value Calculation: PVt =0 = = 32,197.32
(1 + 12%)10
118
Present Value (cont’d)
Example 2: Effect of discount rate
What would you rather have:
– $10,000 today or $12,000 in exactly 2 years
12,000
PV [$12,000; Yr 2; 8%] = = $10288.0
(1 + 8%) 2
– Value of $10,0000 in 2 years is:
119
Present Value (cont’d)
Example 2: Effect of discount rate
What would you rather have:
– $10,000 today or $12,000 in exactly 2 years
12,000
PV [$12,000; Yr 2; 10%] = = $9917.3
(1 + 10%)2
120
Present Value (cont’d)
Example 3: Multiple future cash flows
What is the present value of $50,000 received in year 5 and $100,000 received in year 10 if the discount rate is
12%
$100,000
$50,000
Cash Flow Diagram:
PV = ?? Year 5 Year 10
T
Ct
Present Value Formula: PV = PVt =0 (C1...CT ) = ∑
t =1 (1 + rt ) t
50,000 100,000
Present Value Calculation: PV = + = 60568.67
(1 + 12%)5 (1 + 12%)10
121
Net Present Value
Net present value combines the initial investment (usually made at time zero) and the PV of expected future cash
flows
T
Ct
NPV = C0 + ∑
t =1 (1 + rt ) t
What is the NPV for the following set of cash flows (assume r = 8%)
10 10 110
– NPV = − 100 + + + = 5.15
(1 + 8%) (1 + 8%) 2 (1 + 8%)3
122
Perpetuity
A perpetual stream of equal cash flows received at equal time intervals is known as a perpetuity
C C C C
PV = + + + .....
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )
1 2 3
(1 + r ) ∞
C
= Sum of infinite geometric series
r
Example 1: What is the PV of $10 received in perpetuity, starting in one year? Assume discount rate of 10%
– PV = $10/0.1 = $100
123
Perpetuity (cont’d)
Example 2: What is the PV of $10 received in perpetuity, starting in 6 years? Assume discount rate of 10%
0 5 6 7 8 ∞
10
Value of perpetuity at Year 5: PVt =5 = = 100
0.1
PVt =5 100
PV today (t=0): PVt =0 = = = 62.09
(1 + r ) 5
(1.1) 5
124
Growing Perpetuity
Example 3: What is the PV of a perpetual cash flow starting at $10 in Year 1 and growing at 5% each year
subsequently? Assume discount rate of 10%
C C (1 + g ) C (1 + g ) 2 C (1 + g ) ∞
PV = + + + ...
(1 + r )1 (1 + r ) 2 (1 + r )3 (1 + r ) ∞
C
=
(r - g)
C = first cashflow
r = discount rate
125
Discount Rate
Discount rate used for NPV calculations is the rate of return on the best alternate investment with comparable risk
It often comes from the return on a traded asset such as stocks, bonds, etc. with comparable risk.
Risk-less cash flows are discounted using the current rate for US government bonds or bills as they are
considered riskless
126
Cost of Capital
– Investment examples include building a new plant, launching a new product, or acquiring another company
Cost of Capital is the required return necessary to make a capital investment worthwhile
Capital is provided as either debt or equity, hence Cost of capital includes Cost of Debt and Cost of Equity
The Cost of Capital determines the optimal way for the company to raise money (through a stock issue,
borrowing, or a mix of the two)
127
Cost of Equity
The cost of equity is the rate of return that investors require to make an equity investment in a firm
– Dividend-growth model
Dividend growth model specifies the cost of equity to be the sum of the dividend yield and the expected growth in
earnings
– Useful for mature companies that distribute most of the earnings to shareholders as dividends
Risk and return model, on the other hand, tries to answer two questions:
128
CAPM
CAPM or Capital Asset Pricing Model is a risk and return based model for computing expected return on equity
(Cost of Equity to the firm)
According to CAPM, expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the return on a risk-free security plus a risk
premium
– Re = Rf + b (Rm- Rf)
Example: Compute the expected return on IBM stock, given that risk-free rate is 4%, IBM beta is 1.4, and market
risk premium is 5.5%
– Implies that in the long-term, investors expect to earn 11.70% return on IBM stock
129
CAPM Inputs
– Usually the short-term US Govt. T-bill rate or the long-term US Govt. Security rate, since they have no default
risk
– The choice between short-term rate and long-term rate depends on the investment horizon
– Firm valuations are over a long-term horizon, so use long-term US Govt. Bond rate for firm valuation
130
CAPM Inputs (cont’d)
Computing Beta:
Approach 1: Regress the historical return on equity (Re) with historical market portfolio return (Rm)
Regression output:: Re = a + b Rm
– Where a is the intercept and b, the slope of regression, is the beta of stock and measures the riskiness of the
stock.
Beta is based on historical business and leverage of the firm, either or both of which may be different in the
present
– Take a weighted (by sales or operating income) average of these unlevered betas
131
Estimating Cost of Equity
– Hence, Intel needs to make at least 11.98% as return for their equity investors. This is the hurdle rate for
projects, when investments are analyzed from an equity standpoint. In other words, Intel’s Cost of Equity is
11.98%
132
Cost of Debt and its Estimation
Cost of Debt is
– the market rate of interest at which the company can borrow today
– corrected for the tax benefit it gets for interest payments
Cost of debt = Rd = Interest rate on debt (1 - tax rate)
Caution: Cost of debt is not the interest rate at which the company obtained the old debt that it has on its books
NOTE: The cost of debt has to be estimated in the same currency as the cost of equity and the cash flows
133
Cost of Capital (WACC)
Market Value of Debt is more difficult to estimate because few firms have only publicly traded debt. There are two
solutions:
– Assume book value of debt is equal to market value
– Estimate the market value of debt from the book value?
134
Cost of Capital (WACC) (cont’d)
A firm’s Cost of Capital is calculated by taking a weighted average of the firm’s cost of equity and cost of debt.
WACC represents the investor’s opportunity cost for investing in a particular business instead of others with a
similar risk.
E D
WACC = * Re + * Rd (1 − Tc )
V V
Re = cost of equity
Rd = cost of debt
E = market value of the firm's equity
D = market value of the firm's debt
V=E+D
E/V = percentage of financing that is equity
D/V = percentage of financing that is debt
Tc = corporate tax rate
WACC is used as the discount rate for all cash flows with risk that is similar to that of the overall firm
135
Cost of Capital (WACC) (cont’d)
E D
WACC = * Re + * Rd (1 − Tc )
V V
150 50
WACC[ IBM ] = *11.70% + * 8%(1 − 35%)
200 200
= 10.08%
136
Free Cash Flow – FCF
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) is the cash flow that is generated by company’s operations and available to all
the company’s capital providers (investors), including both debt and equity
Computed as operating income less expenses, taxes, and changes in net working capital and investments
FCFF is also equal to the sum of CFs paid to or received from all the capital providers (interest, dividends, new
borrowing, debt repayments and so on)
FCFF = CF available to all investors = EBIT – taxes – increases in working capital +/- deferred taxes + D&A - Capex
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is the portion of FCFF that is available to company’s equity investors.
This is a measure of how much cash can be paid to the equity shareholders of the company after all expenses,
reinvestment and debt repayment
FCFE = CF available to equity investors only = Earnings after interest and taxes – increases in working capital +/-
deferred taxes + D&A - Capex
137
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis aim at showing the value impact if changing individual key assumptions or the main value
drivers. Following is an example of valuation sensitivity to assumptions regarding cost of capital and terminal
growth.
Sensitivity Table
138
DCF – based Valuation
DCF-based valuation analysis discounts projected (expected) “cash flows” of a firm with an appropriate “discount
rate” to determine firm’s value in present time
– Discount Rate
Cost of Equity
139
DCF – based Valuation (cont’d)
Firm / Equity Valuation Overview
There are two approaches to valuation: A firm can be valued from two different perspectives –
Firm valuation (Enterprise Value or Transaction Value) – represents the value of all capital invested in business
Equity valuation (Market Value or Offer Value) – Value attributable to owners of the company after paying debt.
Firm
Firm valuation values the entire
business including both debt
Debt (D)
and equity claims thereby giving Assets
Claim holders
value of the company to debt (A)
Equity (E)
holders and shareholders.
A = D+E
Equity valuation values just the equity claim in
business i.e. value of a company to shareholders
140
DCF – based Valuation (cont’d)
t =n
FCFFt
Firm valuation: value the entire business, including, besides ValueFirm = ∑
equity, the other claimholders in the firm t =1 (1 + WACC ) t
– Obtained by discounting expected cash-flows to the firm (FCFF),
i.e., the residual cash-flows after meeting all operating n = life of the company
expenses, taxes, and reinvestments needed for future growth,
but prior to debt payments
141
DCF – based Valuation (cont’d)
Project future earnings and cash flows (FCFF) for 5-7 years by estimating an expected growth rate in sales and
earnings during this period
Growth rate may also vary from year to year
For fast growth companies, estimate when the firm will reach “stable growth” and what characteristics (risk & cash
flow) it will have when it does
For mature companies, estimate a nominal growth rate for cash flows beyond the projection period. This is usually
equal to the growth rate of the economy
142
DCF – based Valuation (cont’d)
Value of Firm
=
Present value of operating FCFF during explicit forecast period (5-7 years)
+
Present value of cash flow after explicit forecast period (Terminal Value)
143
DCF – based Valuation (cont’d)
Computing FCFF
NOTE : FCFF does not include any of the financing related cash flows such as interest expense or dividends
n
FCFFt
PVFCFF = ∑
t =1 (1 + WACC ) t
144
Terminal Value
Assume that the firm will generate the last forecast year cash flows in perpetuity
– Can also assume a modest growth rate (usually equal to the GDP growth rate)
145
DCF Worksheet Example
146
Cash Flow Considerations
Capital Expenditures:
– Treatment of R&D expenses
– Treatment of operating leases
– Acquisitions
– Other capitalizable expenses
Tax rate:
– Marginal tax rate vs. Effective tax rate?
147
Equity Value from Firm Value
Steps:
Compute present value of all operating cash flows during projected years
148
Advantages and Disadvantages of DCF Approach
Advantages
– Theoretically, the most sound method of valuation.
– Since it provides intrinsic value as opposed to market value, hence less influenced by temperamental market
conditions economic or other factors
– Can value components of business or synergies separately from the business
– Very helpful to capture businesses in transition
– It allows a detailed assessment of alternative strategies through formulation of alternative cash flow
projections.
Disadvantages:
– Present value obtained are sensitive to assumptions and methodology
– Terminal value represents a significant portion of value and is highly sensitive to valuation assumptions.
– Need realistic projected financial statements over at least one business cycle or until cash flows are
normalized.
– Sales growth rate, margins, investment in working capital, capital expenditures and terminal value
assumptions along with the discount rate assumptions are key to the valuation.
149
Copal Partners
Pitchbook Building
150
Introduction & Types of Pitch book
Usually there can be the following types of book, depending on the purpose :
A. Market Overviews / Bank Introductions: Introducing the bank and giving updates to potential clients.
B. Deal Pitches: Sell-side M&A, buy-side M&A, IPOs, debt issuances, and so on
151
Pitch book Building
A. Market Overviews / Bank Introductions: generally small in size, showcasing the bank’s credentials, having
the following elements
Slides showing the bank’s organization, the different departments
Several “tombstone” slides that show recent deals the bank has done in a particular sector.
Along with these, there can be “league table” slides that show how the bank ranks in different areas like
tech M&A deals, equity issuances, and so on
“Market overview” slides showing recent trends and deals in the market and data on how similar banks
(“comps”) have been performing lately.
B. Deal Pitches: These pitch books are long and most complex, and are basically focused on idea generation,
they talk about all the aspects of the selected deals/deal. These are in response to invitations from the clients.
e.g. RFPs & RFIs (colloquially called beauty parade)
Bank Overview: Update about the bank and the introduction of deal team
Situation / Positioning Overview : Information on what makes the company attractive. It also includes the
update about the market
Preliminary Valuation analysis: Valuation of the company using various valuation techniques discussed
before
Then you show individual methodologies such as public comps, precedent transactions, and a DCF.
Primarily based on public information
Potential Buyers: an exhaustive list of everyone who could potentially buy this company, strategic acquirers
(normal companies) and financial sponsors (PE firms and hedge funds).
It contains a summary slide in the beginning followed by detailed descriptions (“company / asset profiles”)
afterward.
Summary / Recommendations: The bank’s advice and recommendation to the company.
152
Pitch book Building
C. Management Presentations: These pitch books – created for real clients instead of prospective clients – are
less quantitative and are more focused on the client’s strengths. The common elements of this book would be
the following:
Executive Summary / Company Highlights
Market Overview
Products & Services
Sales & Marketing
Customers
Expansion Opportunities
Organization Chart
Historical & Projected Financial Performance
D. Execution Pitch books: These books are prepared only once the bank has been mandated by a particular
client(company):
Highly focused on ongoing deals
Primarily based on the primary information given by the client (company)
Normally include detailed valuation analysis (key assumptions, detailed operating model output, updates
on the deal’s progress)
153
Copal Partners
Profiles
154
Index
Table of Content
Overview 156
155
Overview
A profile is the most basic presentation tool for research used by investment bankers
It gives a brief overview of a company, clearly laying out key details to enable the reader to form a judgment over
its operation, financial and strategic health
– Business description
– Key customers/partners/investors
– Shareholders’ structure
– Management
– Recent news
– Brokers rating
156
Business Description
Company website
– “About us” section of the website is the best source
– Company’s fillings, reports and presentations can also be used
Sources – Press releases
Other databases such as Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Reuters etc
In the absence of any information, do a web search, for example
“company+ customer” and “company+partner”
158
Key Investors
Provides information about the owners of the Financing Summary
Company i.e. who owns the majority stake, what Amount Post-Money
type of investors are they (strategic or financial) Round Raised Valuation
Round Type Date ($MM) ($MM) Company Stage
Applicable for a private company, the section 1 NA 12 / 93 0.05 NA Startup / Seed
provides information on the Company’s various 2 NA 01 / 94 2.0 7.8 Early Stage
financing rounds 3 NA 04 / 96 3.0 17.7 Expansion
4 NA 03 / 00 4.3 32.4 Later Stage
Also provides the list of investors who have 5 NA 06 / 02 21.2 35.2 Expansion
invested in the Company
6 NA 05 / 03 4.2 21.2 Expansion
7 NA 02 / 05 2.5 NA Later Stage
Information includes the round number, round type,
date, amount raised ($m), post-money valuation
($m) and company stage
Company Filings
159
Shareholders’ Structure
Provides information about the owners of the Company i.e. who
owns the majority stake, what type of investors are they
(strategic or financial)
Private Companies
160
Key Management
Gives an overview about the key decision makers of the
Company. Their affiliations provides additional information
of the experience they have in the relevant industry
Includes the list of the top management team (C-Level) as
per the following hierarchy
– Founder
– Chairman
– Vice/Deputy Chairman
– President
– CEO
– CFO
– COO
– CIO
– CTO
Always mention all the designations applicable for every individual e.g. if CFO is also SVP, Finance; the
designation should be written as CFO & SVP, Finance
Abbreviations such as CFO, CTO, CIO, COO, SVP, EVP etc need not be expanded
Always cross check the Executive Management with the Company’s news section; sometimes a management
change is announced but not updated on the website
State the management names in the format, <First Name> <Last Name>, preferably; Exclude middle names,
nick-names, initials and titles (Mr. , Sir, etc.)
Primary objective is to give a quick snapshot about recent developments in the company in the past few months
Acquisitions
Mergers
Types of news to be included
Divestiture
Management changes
Stock buyback/split, IPO
Follow-on offering
Customer contracts
Partnerships/strategic alliances
Organizational changes
Product launches
Funds raised
Financial news
DO NOT include news
163
Recent News (cont’d)
Examples
News Headline
164
Products and Services
Helps understand the business of the
Company and its reporting structure
165
Broker’s Rating
Reflects the market / broker views on fundamentals of the Company i.e. a higher rating reflects strong
fundamentals & hence low level of risk and a lower rating reflects weak fundamentals & hence high level of risk
The Broker’s rating chart gives the breakup of the total number of Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations over an
last twelve months (LTM) period
The section on Analyst Commentary provides commentary on the company from the analyst’s research reports
– The commentary highlights the strengths of the company and how it has been able to benefit from these
strengths. It may also include the Company’s recent developments and which may have affected the share
price and/or the analyst recommendation of the company
166
Share Trading Analysis
Share trading analysis provides an overview of the share price and the various trends related to capital markets
The purpose of this section is to understand and analyze the share price and capital market movements with
respect to the chosen company
167
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
Relative share price performance
Used to compare the performance of the company’s
share with respect to the primary index in the market
Points to remember
Stock exchange
websites
168
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
Annotated share price performance
169
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
Volume at price and
liquidity analysis
Objective is to show in a
chart how has traded
volume of the share been
distributed between
different price ranges
170
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
Overview of Research analyst ratings
Gauges different analysts’ perception of the stock and what kind of recommendation they are making on it
Research reports
Sources
Databases such as Bloomberg, Capital IQ etc
171
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
Development of Consensus Estimates
Gauges the consensus estimates on Revenues, EBITDA and EPS for the future years and how they evolve
Consensus estimates represent the market perception on the future operational results of the company
172
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
173
Share Trading Analysis (cont’d)
Valuation methods used by research analysts
To describe the valuation methods used by the research analysts covering the stock
Information to be included:
– bank/broker name
– main valuation methods used
– main comparable companies used for valuation purposes
– key comments on the valuation of the company
174
Copal Partners
Case Studies
175
Index
Table of Content
Introduction 177
Overview 181
176
Introduction
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are a big part of the corporate finance world. Every day, Wall Street investment
bankers arrange M&A transactions, which bring separate companies together to form larger ones.
M&A are a combination of two or more companies, or the acquisition of a part of a corporation for which some
payment is given in compensation. This payment can be in stock, cash or a combination of the two.
Investors in a company, that are aiming to take over another one, must determine whether the purchase will be
beneficial to them. In order to do so, they must determine how much the company being acquired is really worth.
The success of a merger is measured by whether the value of the buyer is enhanced in medium to long term, by
the action.
A transaction case study aim at analyzing the merger and acquisition deal that has taken place.
177
Types of Acquisition
An Acquisition can take the form of a purchase of stock and other equity in the target entity or the purchase of all or a
substantial portion of its assets
Share Purchase – In a share/stock purchase, the seller transfers shares in the target entity to the acquirer in
exchange for an agreed-upon consideration. The acquirer takes on the target company with all its assets and
liabilities
Asset Purchase – In an asset purchase, the acquirer buys all or a substantial portion of the assets of the target
company. An advantage for the acquirer in an asset purchase is that it can cherry-pick the assets it wants and
leave assets and liabilities that it does not want to purchase
178
Transaction Types
Leveraged Buyout – An LBO is essentially a strategy whereby the acquirer gains control over the target’s stock
or assets through significant amount of borrowed money, making the acquired company’s new capital structure
highly levered; for e.g. - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Texas Pacific Group’s acquisition of TXU Corp
Secondary Buyout – The management team, in conjunction with a private equity fund, acquires the business,
allowing the existing private equity supplier to exit from its investment. Thus, it is an exit mechanism whereby one
investment firm sells its position in a venture on to another; for e.g. - The sale of textile and cleaning group Elis by
French buyout firm PAI Partners to rival Eurazeo
Public to Private Buyout – This involves the management or a private equity provider making an offer for the
listed shares of a public quoted company, then taking the company private; for e.g. - Blackstone Group’s
acquisition of German chemical maker Celanese
Management Buyout – Existing management of a company buys the Company from its owners; foe e.g. -
A.T.Kearney’s management buy-out
Tender Offers – A formal offer of determined duration to acquire a public company’s shares made to equity
holders. The offer is often conditioned upon certain requirements such as a minimum number of shares being
tendered; for e.g. - Sanofi-Aventis’ tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Genzyme for $69 per share in
cash
Divestiture – A deal which results in the loss of majority control, such as sale of subsidiary; for e.g. - Kodak’s
sale of Health Group to Onex
179
Transaction Types (cont’d)
Deal Attitude
Represents the recommendation of the target company’s Management or Board of Directors on the transaction
– Hostile – The Board officially rejects the offer (but the acquirer persists with the takeover)
– Not applicable – The attitude of the Board is not applicable, i.e. open market repurchases, spin-offs
– Unsolicited – The offer is a surprise to the target’s board, and it has yet not given a recommendation.
Deal Consideration
– All Cash
The acquirer pays a lump sum cash consideration to purchase shares/assets in the target
The acquirer offers per share cash consideration for every target share
– All Stock – The acquirer offers its own shares in consideration for each share of the target
– Stock & Cash – The acquirer makes payment for the target partly by issuing its own stock and partly in cash
Additionally, the deal consideration may also include provision for Earnouts. Earnout is a method of
compensating a seller based on the future earnings of the acquired entity. It is the contingent portion of the
purchase price
180
Overview
Case studies focus on different M&A transactions and include the following information regarding the deal:
– Transaction Highlights
– Transaction Overview
– Transaction Rationale
– Market/broker’s Perception
181
Target Business Description
– Include main business of the company, major product categories, geographic presence and other details like
brands, headquarter, listing, employees
In case only one division or segment of the company is being acquired then focus on that particular segment or
division
Also, include data related to the market position of the Target (for example: largest produce of chemicals in China;
one of the leading provider of software solutions etc)
182
Transaction Overview
This section captures the various news items that have been released regarding the transaction
Start from the first mention of the deal (rumors date) or management’s wish to get acquired
It might be the first bid by the acquirer or a competitive bid
Move in ascending order to the latest available news on the deal
Try to capture all news regarding the deal including
– Market rumors
– Other bidders
– Revised bids
– Change in value of the deal
– Search for partners
183
Transaction Highlights
Covers a summary of all events that took place in the course of the deal, starting from the announcement of the
deal includes:
– Items such as the %age held, final price, dividends declared, financing details, advisors, etc. and Information
regarding the terms and conditions of the deal
184
Transaction Rationale
Rationale for Seller/Target: Mention benefits which the seller/target is expecting from the deal or why they want to
sell off the Company
Synergy: Overall synergy benefits expected out of the joint entity post merger. The functions of synergy allow for
the enhanced cost efficiency of a new entity made from two smaller ones - synergy is the logic behind mergers
and acquisitions
Focus on various strategic benefits of the deal such as combining the product portfolio of current target with its
existing portfolio companies and entering a new geography with the current acquisition
Include potential synergies, increase in market share, enhancement in product portfolio, geographic expansion,
financing further growth and divesting non-core activities
185
Market /Broker’s perception
The section provides commentary on the company from the analyst’s research reports; try to include comments
from the brokers who have made commentary on the deal
– Also, in some cases, the commentary includes quotes by Key management of the target and acquirer on the
deal
The commentary highlights the attractiveness of the target, deal rationale, comments on valuation or future
predictions of the deal
In case of private companies, try to find out analyst’s comments on the deal through web search
Try to incorporate broker comments on target/acquirer and seller for the deal
186
Copal Partners
Industry Overview
187
Introduction
Industry overview analysis presents a snapshot of the industry and its competitive landscape
This is provided to gauge the current positioning of the particular company and identify certain strategic areas that
the company may consider, including M&A options
Broadly, the following sections exist in this overview
– Industry snapshot
this section details the current state of the industry
provides figures relating to market size and growth rates
also details how the industry is structured in terms of various segments
the current and expected trends are then highlighted to understand the future outlook for the industry
– Evolution
briefly highlight the evolution of the industry, and analyze any specific pattern
competitive landscape
briefly describe the competition in each segment highlighting large players and their positioning
– Company’s positioning
given the industry trends, future outlook and competition, highlight the company’s competitive positioning
and suggest any specific strategic actions (this may include a SWOT analysis)
– Options
present a case for various strategic options that could be possible given the industry scenario, competitive
landscape and the current state of the company
188
Introduction (cont’d)
– What competitive forces are at work in the industry and how strong are they?
– How attractive is the industry in terms of its prospects for above average profitability?
– What are the forces of change in the industry and what impact will they have?
189
Industry’s dominant economic traits
Covers
Capital requirements
190
Forces of change in the industry
The most dominant forces that cause the industry to change are called driving forces
– Task 2 - assessing their impact on the industry (few are important, generally)
– Product innovation
– Technological change
– Marketing innovation
– Increasing globalization
– Regulatory changes
191
Companies in the strongest/weakest competitive position
Identify strongest/weakest
competition using strategic
group mapping: two
dimensional representation
according to the competitive
characteristics of the
competitors in the industry
– Identify competitive
characteristics
– Plot firms on a 2 variable
map
– Assign firms to strategic
groups
– Circle groups proportional
to size
Product line/merchandise mix
Variables:
– Axes should not be
correlated
– Expose differences in rival
strategies
– Need not be quantitative or
continuous
The closer the circles, the
stronger the rivalry
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Variables in identifying competitors
– The more similar the definitions of firms, the more likely the firms will view each other as competitors
How similar are the benefits the customers derive from the products and services other firms offer?
– The more similar the benefits, the higher the level of substitutability between them
– To size up commitment of potential competitors to industry, reliable intelligence data are needed concerning
potential resource commitments
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Common mistakes in identifying competitors
Overemphasizing competitors’ financial resources, market position, and strategies while ignoring their intangible
assets
Assuming all firms in industry are subject to same constraints or are open to same opportunities
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Who’s likely to make what competitive moves next?
In order to outmaneuver your competition you have to evaluate the competitors’ future moves
– Strategic changes
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Key factors that determine success or failure
Key success factors (KSF) are crucial elements that lead to success
– Scientific research expertise (important in such fields as pharmaceuticals, medicine, space exploration, other
"high-tech" industries)
– Low-cost production efficiency (achieve scale economies, capture experience curve effects)
– High utilization of fixed assets (Asset Turnover) (important in capital intensive/high fixed-cost industries)
– High labor productivity (important for items with high labor content)
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Key factors that determine success or failure (cont’d)
– Fast delivery
– Merchandising skills
– Attractive styling/packaging
– Customer guarantees and warranties (important in mail-order retailing, big ticket purchases, new product
introductions)
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Key factors that determine success or failure (cont’d)
– Ability to get newly developed products out of the R&D phase and into the market very quickly
– Superior information systems (important in airline travel, car rental, credit card, and lodging industries)
– Ability to respond quickly to shifting market conditions (streamlined decision-making, short lead times to bring
new products to market)
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Attractiveness of the industry in terms of its prospects for above average profitability
Growth potential
Stability of demand
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Data gathering
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Data gathering (cont’d)
Develop a Search Strategy
– Using the Internet to search for business valuation information is
potentially one of the most efficient ways
– Boolean logic is the basic logic system used for online searching; uses
three logical operators: AND, OR and NOT
The AND connector means that all search terms connected by the
AND must be present
The OR connector requires either term to be present
The NOT connector returns records where the designated term
does not appear
– Another helpful search logic tool is truncation. Truncation, also known
as wild card searching, allows searching of word variations
Wild cards can vary from database to database but usually are
either the “*” or “?”
Evaluate Information
The following questions should be asked for evaluation:
– Who authored this information? - Is the author’s name and affiliation
disclosed? Is there an e-mail address so that you can inquire further?
Is the author the creator or the compiler of the information?
– Who is publishing this information? - Can the producer be identified
and contacted? Is it a professional organization? Does the
organization have a particular bias? Who is the intended audience?
– What can you determine about the content? - How complete is the
information? Is it an abstract of the complete text? Are the references
documented, current and relevant?
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Creating an analysis structure
Appendix
– Should contain all necessary definitions of the jargons used in the presentation
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Project execution
Do not just write an email for information request and wait for people to
respond. Be proactive, keep calling until you get the desired data from
external and internal contacts
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Project execution (cont’d)
Key questions:
“So what does this mean”?
“Will this affect the sector, economy or the region being analyzed”?
“Will the impact be positive or negative”?
“Is the rate of change fast or slow”? (Will the impact be strong and immediate or not?)
“Does this get you closer to proving or disproving your current hypotheses”?
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Copal Partners
Research Techniques
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Introduction
There are a lot of research methodologies used to prepare an Industry piece. The most extensively used techniques
are as follows:
A. SWOT Analysis
B. PESTEL Analysis
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SWOT Analysis
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PESTEL Analysis
B. PESTEL Analysis
– PESTEL is an acronym for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal
– PESTEL Analysis helps analyze factors in the macro-environment that affect the decisions of the managers of
any organization
Examples include: Tax changes, new laws, trade barriers, demographic change, government policy
changes etc
It is important not to just list PESTEL factors because this does not in itself tell much
Need to find out, which factors are most likely to change and which ones will have the greatest impact on
the company i.e. each firm must identify the key factors in their own environment
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Porter’s Five forces model
– It is designed to explain the relationship between the five dynamic forces that affect an industry’s performance;
these are the:
– The Five Forcers Analysis model tries to identify what factors shape the character of competition within an
industry.
– Finally the Five Forces Analysis pinpoints strengths and weaknesses in a company and discovers
opportunities or threats within the industry
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Competitive forces at work in the industry
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