International Conference on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation (I3CIA-2013)

Center for Climate Change and Sustainability Research (3CSR), Department of Civil Engineering
DUET - Gazipur, Bangladesh

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BANGLADESH WATER RESOURCES

AND USING MODEL FOR SURFACE WATER ASSESSMENT

M.S. Hossain1 Madhusudan Debnath2 and Rupayan Saha3

ABSTRACT: Bangladesh is facing the threat of global warming and sea level rise. This impact is
severe in the coastal region. Proper water resources management is must in this problematic area.
The coastal belt of Bangladesh is under a polder system. This system protects the mass people from
great threats of natural and man maid calamities over the time. Human requirement of water is
increasing day by day as life is getting better and better. So, a good management is required to
augment the water resources. This research is aimed at filling the gaps in existing knowledge and
management of Bangladesh’s surface water resources. One of the challenges facing water managers
understands how changing land use and land cover, evaporation and floods impact surface water
resources. We are developing tools and methods to manage the increased pressure on water
resources from different users and the competition for water between competing uses including
interception from vegetation (such as plantation forestry or farming). Surface water resources are
replenished by floodplain inundation and groundwater recharge from landscapes, but these events
are episodic so the dynamics of the water balance need to be understood to fully appreciate the
implications of variable and changing climate.

Keywords: Climate Change, Surface Water Assessment Model, Water Resources Engineering

1. Introduction

Bangladesh made great strides in improving coverage of its population with access to an
improved water supply and in the Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment 2010 Report
(WHO and UNICEF, 2010), Bangladesh had a coverage in rural areas of 97% of the population
having access to an improved water supply within one kilometre of their home or 30 minutes
total collection time. The presence of arsenic in groundwater is now reduced this figure to
74%and in the mid-term assessment of progress towards meeting the MDG Target for
water,Bangladesh was considered off-track (WHO and UNICEF, 2010). It should be noted,
however, that in other countries currently considered to be on-track to meet the MDG, it is likely
that if water safety is taken into account then progress would be lower. Nonetheless, arsenic in
shallow groundwater has resulted in a major water supply and public health problem for
Bangladesh and one that requires ongoing and urgent attention.

2. Basic Informations

1
First Author,Institute of Water Modelling(IWM), shn@iwmbd.org,shlitonbuet@gmail.com
2
Madhusudan Debnath,JE, Institute of Water Modeling (IWM), msd@iwmbd.org
3
Rupayan Saha, Institute of Water Modelling(IWM), rsa@iwmbd.org

1|P age
IWM has been maintaining Bay of Bengal model for the last fifteen years to assess the hydrodynamics and
salinity distribution in the coastal area of Bangladesh. The model domain covers the Bay of Bengal from
Chandpur on the Lower Meghna River to 17º Latitude in north-south direction and India to Myanmar in
east-west direction. The bathymetry of the model is shown in the Figure-2.1, which is based on mPWD
datum. Inter-tidal areas are flooded and dried during a tidal cycle. Moheskhali as seen in the following map
lies in the Bay of Bengal area and Moheskhali Study Area is located at the eastern part of it.

Figure 2.1: Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal Model

3. Moheshkhali Study Area

3.1 Location and Topography

Moheskhali Study Area is located at Moheskhali Upazila, Cox’s bazar District under Chittagong Division.
For most of Study Area change in elevation is gradual. The land elevation of the Study Area effectively
ranges between 0.83 mPWD and 5.80 mPWD. Insignificant fractional percent of land lie outside the above
range. It is assessed that 23% land of the Study Area is below 1.54 mPWD while 33%, 56%, 74%, 90% and
100% of the land are below 1.89 mPWD, 2.60 mPWD, 2.96 mPWD, 3.67 mPWD and 5.80 mPWD
respectively. The use of present Study Area’s area can be broadly divided into lands for agricultural (58%)
and non-agricultural (42%).

3.2 River and Khal System

Regional river system adjacent to the Study Area is shown in Figure: 3.1. Moheskhali Study Area lies in the
Moheskhali upazilla which is a south east coastal island of Bangladesh. The existing polder 69 protects the
large part of Study Area from flood tides. Study Area is separated from the mainland by the Moheskhali
channel. This channel lies in the south east part of Study Area and flows toward Bay of Bengal in south
west direction. There are two khals named Boruna & Sarkar lies in Study Area area. Boruna Khal runs
along the Study Area boundary in south east direction and flow into Moheskhali channel. Sarkar khal
collects water from low land area of southern part of Study Area and flow towards south direction to
Moheskhali channel.

2|P age
 Figure 3.1: Regional river system surrounding the Study Area
3.3 Rainfall
The average observed records of short duration (1986-09) of yearly 1-day maximum rainfall at
Moheskhali is higher than the base station Dhaka. The highest rainfall recorded during the period
is 227 mm which occurred in June 1991. The average yearly rainfall is about 3601 mm. About
78% rainfall occurs during the period from June to September.

3.4 Flood
Moheskhali lies in the south east coastal region of Bangladesh. The water level data of nearest water level
gauge station at Cox’s Bazar (41) on the Bogkhali River is not available for analysis of water level.
Saflapur (200) on the Moheskhali channel is a tidal water level station is situated about 15 km up from the
Study Area.The area of the Study Area is comparatively flat lands. The Study Area has its significant lands
flood free while the rest of the lands are in the order of shallow, moderate and deep flooded areas.It is
assessed that 44% of land of the Study Area is above the average flood level while 13% land is subjected to
shallow depth (less than 30 cm) of flooding. The rest of the land ranges from moderate to deep flooding. It

3|P age
is assessed that 16% and 27% of land is subjected to moderate (30-90 cm flood depth) and deep (90-180
cm flood depth) flooding in reference to average year flood. There is no very deep (more than 180 cm flood
depth) flooded area in the Study Area in reference to average year flood level.

4. Hydro-Meteorological Data

4.1 Precipitation
Rainfall data is needed as input to the model. Eight rainfall stations are available in and around the whole
model area. To account for the spatial variation in rainfall, the time series data for each station has been
associated with an area. This area has been estimated by Thiessen Polygon Method. Thiessen polygons for
each rainfall stations have been shown in Figure 4.1.

4.2 Evapo-Transpiration
The actual evapo-transpirations are estimated in the model on the basis of potential evapotranspiration rates, the root
depths and leaf area indexes of different crops over the seasons. Model uses Kristensen and Jensen formula for
calculation of actual evapotranspiration. Time series of the potential evapotranspiration are given as input to the
model. Evaporation data for Bandarban and Chittagong stations have been used in the model.

Moheshkhali

Figure 2.2: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of

Figure 4.1: Thiessen Polygons for Rainfall Figure 4.2: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the
Stations in Model Area Study Area

4|P age
4.3 Topography
A well-prepared DEM is essential for visualizing the floodplain topography and for accurate modeling. A
DEM of 300 m resolution has been developed to define the topography of the study area and used in the
model. Topographic data for the study area has been extracted from the topographic database developed by
FAP-19 based on irrigation planning maps available at IWM and also from the topographic survey
conducted for Moheshkhali Study Area by IWM. Roads alignment and homestead coverage also have been
collected from Roads and Highway Department (RHD) and LGED. Utilizing these topographic data, road
alignment and homestead coverage, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 300 m resolution has been
developed to define the topography of the study area Figure 4.2.Elevation of the area varies from 5 mPWD
on average to the coastal region to 200 mPWD.

4.4 Existing Agricultural Practice

Land use and vegetation are used in the model to calculate actual evapo-transpiration depending on the actual crops
grown in the project area. Major part of the model area is agricultural land and forest. Under the present study, for
modelling purpose the cropping types and cropping pattern have been simplified considering the major crops that
require irrigation water. A crop database for each crop, which defines leaf area index, root depth and other properties
of each crop are developed based on FAO publications (FAO, 1979) and used in the model. Crop calendar of the
model area reveals that Boro and T.Aman are the main crops cultivated in the study area where as
mangrove forest also covers a major portion of the study area. Spatial distribution of cropping pattern is
shown in Figure 4.3.

Figure 4.3: Spatial Distribution Map for Land use

5|P age
5. Regional Model Used for assessment

Lower Meghna River falls into Bay of Bengal near Noakhali. Figures-5.1 & 5.2 shows the location of
Moheskhali Study Area. The area is influenced by tides from bay and freshwater from Lower Meghna
which differs seasonally with the volume of upland flow. Land accretion and also erosion continues due to
presence of huge sediment and movement of tides. The island has been embanked by polders and its
maintenance is overseen by BWDB. Thus the area is free from tidal salinity and drainage of the area is
facilitated through the sluice gates constructed on the embankment to arrest inflow of tidal water and
draining out of excess water during low tide. These internal channels and ponds are sources of fresh surface
water. However, the availability is not sufficient to manage requirements during dry periods.

Figure 5.1: Map of Eastern Hill Region of Bangladesh showing location of Moheskhali Study Area

Bay of Bengal Model (BoBM) developed by IWM and is often calibrated and verified is seen an important
tool to understand the hydro-morphology and salinity at the current situation and also under development
scenario including Climate Change scenarios.

6|P age
 Figure 5.2: River System around Moheskhali Study Area

6. Surface water Identification

Water level variation near Moheskhali in the Bay of Bengal is shown in the Figure-6.1. It is evident from
the Figure-6.1 that the seasonal variation near Moheskhali in the Bay of Bengal is about 0.62 m. Tidal
characteristics for dry season and monsoon season near Moheskhali are also presented in the Table-6.1. It is
found from the Table-6.1 that the maximum water level near Moheskhali is 2.82 mPWD during dry season
and 3.36 mPWD during monsoon.

Figure 6.1: Seasonal variation near Moheskhali in the Bay of Bengal

Impact of climate change was also assessed in the Bay of Bengal near Moheskhali for 120 cm sea level rise

7|P age
at the end of the year 2100 and the increase in water level is furnished in the Figure-6.2. It is evident from
the figure that water level may increase near Moheskhali by 1.2m at the end of the year 2100.

Figure 6.2: Increase of water level due to 120cm SLR at the end of the year 2100

Salinity model was also carried out to assess the distribution of salinity level near Moheskhali and its
change in changing climate. The distribution of salinity level both for existing condition and climate
change condition are furnished in the Figure-6.3 and Table 6.1. It is clear from the figure that maximum
salinity level near Moheskhali in the existing condition is between 25ppt to 30ppt whereas it may increase
to more than 30ppt due to 1.2m SLR.
Table-6.1: Tidal characteristics near Moheskhali in the Bay of Bengal
Moheskhali
Parameters
Dry Season Monsoon Season
Maximum Water level (m) 2.82 3.36
Minimum Water level (m) -2.03 -1.64
Mean Low Water Spring (m) -1.61 -1.18
Mean High Water Spring (m) 2.05 2.80
Mean Low Water Neap (m) -1.36 -0.82
Mean High Water Neap (m) 1.90 2.40
Mean Water Level (m) 0.29 0.74

8|P age
 Figure 6.3: Distribution of maximum salinity level both for existing and climate change condition

7. Recommendation

Perennial rivers, reservoirs, lakes and ponds constitute the surface water source, while
underground aquifer constitutes the groundwater source. Both the sources have limitations like
water availability, water quality environment, physical locations, hydrogeology, salinity, etc. To
identify the safe drinking water sources, many variables are to be looked at. To solve this
complex problem the mathematical model for both surface and groundwater are used to meet the
present and projected need of the safe drinking water for the individual Pourashava. Following
are the findings and recommendations for Moheshkhali Pourashava:
 Surface water around Moheshkhali Pourashava is saline and climate change is going to
negatively affect the salinity in the Bay and its impact of higher salinity will be felt all
the way. Thus, surface water is not recommended as municipal source for Moheshkhali
Pourashava.
 Through mathematical modelling it is found that the groundwater availability is
satisfactory. However, before using groundwater as source for supply of municipal water,
necessary deep test well is to be installed and the water quality is to be tested. Water
treatment plant will have to be provided, if found necessary.
 Rain water harvesting can be considered a possibility of surface water in the area.
Rainwater harvesting can be explored as a possibility of surface water source in the area.

8. Acknowledgement

The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of all team members of this study.
Particularly, Mr.Robin Raihan, Project Direcor, Ground Water Management Project, DPHE is
appreciated for his kind consent to the authors for this publication. the invaluable support of Mr.
Emaduddin Ahmad, Team Leader, Comp-I,Mathematical Modelling for safe Drinking Water
Source Identification, DPHE and Mr. S M Mahbubur Rahman,Director, Water Resources
Planning Division, IWM. The authors are also thankful to colleagues of IWM- Md., Musfiqur
Rahman for his contribution in this particular assignment.

9|P age
9. References

[1] UN-Water Global Annual Assessmentof sanitation and drinking water (GLASS), 2012
report.
[2] Bangladesh WASH, K. B. (09-10 December 2009). Learning and Knowledge Sharing
Workshop on Response to Cyclone Aila Khulna. Water Aid.
[3] Board, T. SWOT Analysis and Sustainability Study for A Service Sector-A Case Study
of TWAD Board. TWAD Board.
[4] Haider, D. (14 July 2011). Solution Exchange for the Climate and Disaster Risk
Reduction Community Consolidated ReplyQuery: Safe Water for the South West –
Experiences.
[5] Sharmin, F. (20 April 2010). Sustainable Alternative Water Supply Technologies in
Arsenic Prone Areas of Bangladesh.
[6] Zaman, M. Climate Change, Cross border Migration and Regional Conflicts: Risks and
Strategies for Bangladesh; Bangladesh Calling for Climate Justice.Retrieved January 8,
2012, from www.dmb.com
[7] December 4, 2012, from Disaster Management Bureau. (n.d.). From www.dmb.com.
http://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilson/arsenic/conferences/Feroze_Ahmed/Sec_3.htm,
[8] Haider, D. Solution Exchange for the Climate and Disaster Risk Reduction Community
Consolidated ReplyQuery: Safe Water for the South West – Experiences. WaterAiD.

10 | P a g e