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Effect of Climate Change on Flood Innundation of the Jamuna River Basin

Conference Paper · February 2014

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 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development
(ICCESD-2014), 14~16 February 2014, KUET, Khulna, Bangladesh

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD INUNDATION OF THE JAMUNA

RIVER BASIN

Md. Mostafizur Rahman*1, Dr. Mohammad Mostafa Ali2

1
Post-graduate student, Department of Water Resource Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering &
Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
e-mail: mostafizsust@gmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resource Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering &
Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
e-mail: amostafa@wre.buet.ac.bd

ABSTRACT

Bangladesh lies at the confluence of three world’s major rivers, namely the Ganges, the Jamuna and the
Meghna. As a low lying country, at least 22% areas are flooded every year and in case of severe flood 66%
areas are inundated. Flooding causes sufferings to the people, damage to crops and vegetation, destruction to
infrastructures and affect economic activities. The majority of flood disasters victims are poor people living
in nearby stretch of floodplain. A non- structural measure like flood inundation mapping is a good way to
prevent flood damages. With the help of hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS and GIS application like Arc-GIS and
HEC-GeoRAS, inundation mapping has been prepared. Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) has been
prepared from field survey data and the DEM of the study area in ArcGIS. The hydrodynamic analysis is
done by HEC-RAS which exports water level for HEC-GeoRAS. The flood inundation map has been developed
using HEC-GeoRAS. The model provides water surface map and inundation map. The flooded area for the
discharge of 91307,93658,98300,101524,103893and 108631 m3 /sec are 61.16, 61.72, 62.86, 63.58, 64.09 and
65.08 km2, respectively.

Keywords: Flood Inundation Map, Jamuna River, HEC-RAS, HEC-GeoRAS, Geographic Information System.

1. INTRODUCTION
The Brahmaputra-Jamuna River, draining the northern and eastern slopes of the Himalayas, is 3000 km long
where in Bangladesh, reach length is 240 km (Jagers, 2003). It is a wandering braided river with an average
bankful width of about 11 km (BWDB, 2010.) Having an average annual discharge 19,600 m3/sec, rivers drains
an estimated 620×109 m3 of water annually to the Bay of Bengal. The discharge varies from a minimum 3,000
m3/sec to a maximum 100,000 m3/sec, with a bankful discharge of approximately 48,000 m3/sec. (BWDB,
2010). It has an average surface slope of 7 cm/km (Hossain, 1992).

Flood is the most frequent natural disaster of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has experienced floods of a vast
magnitude in 1974, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2000 & 2004 (FFWC, 2005). Floods of 1988, 1998 and 2004
inundated about 61, 68 and 38% of the total area of the country respectively (Rahman et.al., 2007). Flood of
1998 inundated the country for a period of more than two months (Khan 2009).

1.1 Types of flood in Bangladesh

The term flood is generally used when the flows in the rivers and channel cannot be contained within natural or
artificial river banks. There are four types of flood occurred in Bangladesh that is flash flood from hilly areas,
monsoon floods from major rivers, rain-fed floods, and floods due to storm surges (Rahman et.al., 2007). Flash
flood prone areas of the Bangladesh are at the foothills. Intense local and short-lived rainfall often associated
with convective clusters is the primary cause of flash floods. These are characterized by a sharp rise followed by
a relatively rapid recession. The word flood is generally synonymous with river flood. River flood is a common
phenomenon in the country caused by bank overflow. Of the total flow, around 80% occurs in the 5 months of
monsoon from June to October (WARPO, 2004). Rain-fed flood generally occurs in many parts of the country
 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

but is mainly prevalent in the south-western part of the country. This kind of flood also occurs in the flood
plains where natural drainage systems have been disturbed either due to human interferences e.g. construction of
unplanned rural roads and encroachment of river courses etc. or due to gradual decay of the natural drainage
system. A flood due to storm surges mostly occurs along the coastal areas of Bangladesh over a coastline of
about 800 km along the southern part. The worst kind of such flooding was on 12 Nov 1970 and 29 April 1991
which caused loss of 300,000 and 138,000 human lives respectively (FFWC, 2005).

1.2 Causes of floods in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is surrounded on the east, north and west by India and by the Bay of Bengal on the south. The
Ganges and the Brahmaputra-Jamuna are the two major rivers are coming from outside of Bangladesh and
passing through. The topography of Bangladesh is very low lying where about 50 % of the country is within 6-7
m of Mean Sea Level (Khan 2009). In monsoon season the discharge of the main river of Bangladesh is very
high. Bangladesh Rivers receive runoff from a catchment of 1.72 million sq. Km, around 12 times its land area.
There are 57 trans-boundary rivers of which 54 from India and 3 from Myanmar. Any change in sea level causes
land elevation to change. Sea level is rising globally at the present time and if it rises in an area at a rate faster
than the rate of land aggradations due to sedimentation, then land elevation decreases compare to river bed. Any
decrease in land elevation can cause increased inundation by rivers overflowing at bank full stage. River bed
aggradations also cause of flood in Bangladesh. (Khan, 2007)

1.3 Flood management

Flood Managements are broadly divided into structural and non structural measures. Structural measure like
embankments, sluice gates, drainage canals, dams and barrages are practice in Bangladesh to flood
management. An alternative strategy for mitigation flood hazard, the concept of non structural measure, can be
important. Thesis include: dissemination of meteorological forecast, floodplain mapping to restrict development
regulations, disaster relief etc.

1.4 Previous study

A number of studies have been carried out in the past, particularly concerning the floodplain inundation
mapping. Khan (2009) studied flooding plain inundation mapping of Kaliganga-Dhaleswari River Basin. His
objectives of the study were bathymetric Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) creation and Floodplain
visualization mapping of Kaliganga-Dhaleswari River reash. He used water level, discharge data of April, 2004
to March, 2005 which was collected from Bangladesh Water development Board (BWDB). The Resolution of
300m*300m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Bangladesh was collected from IWM. He prepared floodplain
map and the area of inundation within the floodplain during post monsoon. Different thana like Dhamrai, Savar
and Saturia were inundated 11.81, 9.0 and 47.38% respectively. CRWR (1999) studied Floodplain Mapping
Using HEC-RAS and ArcView GIS. Main objective of the study was to develop a procedure to take computed
water surface profiles generated from the HEC-RAS hydraulic model and draw a map of the resulting floodplain
in ArcView GIS. The studied was shown grid-based flood plain map.

1.5 Study area

Bangladesh is called the country of rivers. The Padma, the Meghna and the Jamuna are three major rivers in
Bangladesh. the mother river of the Jamuna is the Brahmaputra, originating from the Chemayung-Dung
glacier, at approximately 31°30´N and 82°0´E (Islam, 2009),. A part of the Brahmaputra, named Jamuna crosses
the Bangladeshi border at Kurigram Sadar, Ulipur thana of Kurigram district. The Jamuna inside Bangladesh
and its floodplain about 25 km each side of river banks are the study areas for this study (figure 1.1). Total study
area consist of 11300 square Km.
 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

Figure 1.1: Location of Full Brahmaputra- Jamuna (left side) and Jamuna in Bangladesh (right side). Source:
Google Map https://maps.google.com

1.6 Objectives of the study

Bathymetric TIN Creation.

Developing flood inundation mapping for the Jamuna River for the different flow conditions.
Studying the impact of climate change on flood inundation mapping.

2. DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY

2.1 Data collection

The cross section data of the Jamuna for the year of 2011 have been collected from the Bangladesh Water
Development Board (BWDB). The reference elevation of BWDB is 0.46 m above mean sea level. Therefore,
BWDB data are subtracted by 0.46 m from the reduced level data. All cross section data were projected on to
the Bangladesh Transverse Mercator (BTM). The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Bangladesh has been
collected from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) which resolution is 30mX30m
(http://reverb.echo.nasa.gov).

2.2 Methodology

Flood inundation mapping of the Jamuna reach has been developed using HEC-RAS 4.1.0, HEC-GeoRAS
10.1and Arc Map GIS 9.3. HEC-RAS has been used for hydrodynamic modeling, Arc Map GIS has been used
to visualize the floodplain and HEC-GeoRAS has been used for linking HEC-RAS and GIS. The process is
illustrated in Figure 2.1.

Pre-Processing: Post-Processing:
TIN Data Extracted Input Output GIS Themes Created
Data
HEC-RAS Data
Cross-sections Cross-section cut lines
Exchange Exchange
File File
Stream centerline Bounding polygons
Stream bank lines Water surface TINs
Flow lines Floodplain polygons

Figure 2.1: Pre and post processing for HEC-RAS

 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

2.2.1 GIS based study

At first river cross section data has been imported into GIS using the Add Data option. All cross section data has
been Geo-referenced according to the Bangladesh Transverse Mercator (BTM).This data has been converted
into the Shape file format .This Shape file has been converted into the raster format within the cell size of 5m.
The DEM tif file has been converted in to raster format within the cell size of 5 m. The DEM of the study area
has been extract from the Bangladesh DEM (Figure2.2).

Figure 2.2: DEM of the Study Area

The topographic DEM doesn’t contain the bathymetric data. The extracted raster file contains the bathymetric
grid but not the topographic grid. So the bathymetric grid has been merged with the topographic DEM to
produce the complete DEM of the river bathymetry along with the topographic DEM (figure 2.3). The complete
DEM has been converted into TIN (figure 2.4). For doing this 3D Analysis menu has been used. Highest
elevation of the TIN is 191 m which reefer the hilly area and lowest elevation is -29 m which refer deepest river
portion.

Figure 2.3: DEM with bathymetry.

 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

Figure 2.4: Bathymetric TIN

2.2.2 HEC-GeoRAS Based study

HEC-GeoRAS is a geographic river analysis system developed using ArcGIS by U.S Army corps of
engineers to function as a pre-processor for preparing the input data for HEC-RAS from GIS and a
post-processor to map the extent of flood plain. The data needed to perform these computations are
separated into geometric data (elevation, river center-line, hydraulic structures etc) and steady flow data
(flow values of various recurrence intervals).

Complete TIN has been created. Now the geometric data of the river bathymetry along with topography can be
extracted from the TIN. Geometric data has been extracted from the TIN using PreRAS option of HEC-GeoRAS
extension. The development of a stream centerline, stream banks, cross-section and flow path lines as shape files
were required for preprocessing. The HEC-GeoRAS PreRAS menu function has been used to extract 3-D spatial
data from the TIN to develop 3-D poly lines themes of the previous defined stream centerline, stream banks, and
cross-section and flow path lines. Stream line has been drawn from upstream to downstream. All flow paths also
have been drawn from upstream to downstream. The River name and stream name are assigned. The channel,
left bank and right bank should be assigned. To draw cross-section cut line rule should be maintained so that the
cross section cut lines must cross each of the three flow paths and cross section cut lines should be perpendicular
to the direction of flow. To attribute stream line, bank lines and cross section from TIN, stream center lines
attributes and XS cut lines attributes of PreRAS menu has been used. Finally the geometry data has been
exported from the PreRAS export RAS data option for the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic analysis. Figure 2.5 shows
the channel, bank lines, flow paths, and cross-sections below.

Figure 2.5: Channel, bank lines, flow paths and cross-section (small part of study area).
 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

2.2.3 HEC-RAS Based study

HEC-RAS is designed to calculate water surface profiles for steady or unsteady Gradually Varied Flow (GVF)
in natural and manmade channels. Steady state analysis is performed in this study to calculate the water surface
profiles using the “standard step method”. In this method, water surface profiles are computed by solving
energy equation using an iterative procedure Geometry data has been imported from the HEC-RAS geometry
dada editor option. The ASTER DEM has a spatial resolution of 30 m, which is a very coarse resolution for
flood inundation mapping. Comparison is made between the channel profiles extracted from DEM with cross-
section survey data. Figure 2.6 shows a reasonable comparison for the active portion of the channel.

Figure2.6: cross-section from model data (left side) and cross-section from survey data (right side).

HEC-RAS model has been setup for hydrodynamic steady flow analysis. Manning’s roughness coefficient n
has been taken 0.025 for river and 0.040 for flood plains (chow 1959).Boundary condition for Steady analysis
has been chosen average slope of the Jamuna 0.00007 (BWDB 2010). There are tens water discharges profile
have been used which is 91307, 93658, 98300, 101524, 103893 and 108631m3/sec. Flood or peak discharge in
the year of 1988, 1998 and 2004 is 98300, 93658 and 91307 m3/sec respectively (IWF, 2004).The last step of
steady flow analysis is to run the model and export the water surface profile for HEC GeoRAS base flood
mapping.

2.2.4 Preparation of flood plain inundation map

Water surface profile sdf file has been imported in GIS by post GeoRAS option of HEC GeoRAS menu and
convert sdf file into xml file. Before water surface generation layer set up should be done. Using this menu
water surface generation and inundation mapping is done.

3 Results

One of the major outcomes of this study is the generation of the flood inundation maps of the Jamuna for
different peak discharge, e.g, 91307, 93658, 98300, 101524, 103893 and 108631 cumec (figure3.1)
 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

Figure 3.5: Inundation map at different discharge.

Inundated area and percentage of inundated area by flood at different discharges are shown in the table 3.1
below.

Table3.1: Flood inundated area

Discharge Inundated % of area

(m3/ sec) area (km2) inundated
91307 6911.56 61.16

93658 6974.82 61.72

98300 7102.70 62.86

101524 7184.16 63.58

103893 7242.32 64.09
108631 7354.09 65.08

Table shows that flood inundation area increase with increase discharge. It’s clear from the table inundated area
is increase with increase discharge.

3.5 Climate Change Impact on flood Inundation Map

From analysis of last 50 years rainfall data of Bangladesh, it was found that the monsoon rainfall increases very
gently as 2.65 mm/year (IPCC 2007). In the year of 1987 to 2008, the maximum rainfall at the Jamuna Basin
was found as 2748 mm/year. Considering this rainfall as a base rainfall and with a rate of 2.65 mm/year
increase, it is estimated that the rainfall will be increased by 3.28, 5.69 and 10.51% for the year of 2025, 2050
and 2100 respectively. Owing to this increasing rainfall, it is also estimated that discharge will be increased by
the same percentages and it will be 101524, 103893, and 10863m3/sec in the year of 2025, 2050 and 2100
respectively. From the flood inundation maps it is found that flood inundation areas for this three discharges will
be 7184.16, 4242.32, and 7.54.09, km2 and the percentages of inundation will be 63.58%, 64.09% and 65.08%,
 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering for Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2014)

respectively. However, this should be noted that these are few preliminary results from our ongoing research.
Further analyses are needed in order to calibrate and verify the model results which will be done in next phases.

4. CONCLUSIONS

Flooding around the Jamuna causes a considerable damage to life and property. This study presents a systematic
approach in the preparation of flood inundation map by using one-dimensional numerical model HEC-RAS, and
HEC-GeoRAS. The automated floodplain mapping and analysis using these tools provide more efficient,
effective and standardized results and saves time and resources. The study also made the assessment of flood
inundation with relation to the discharge and their water depth. In this study, flood inundation maps for selected
flood years are modeled. Objective was to predict future scenario. Few preliminary results are presented.
However, further analyses are needed in order to calibrate and verify the model results which will be done in
next phases.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge Mr. Sarfaraz Alam, Lecture, Department of water resource
Engineering, BUET, for his contribution to this study at various stages of work. More over we would like to
acknowledge Bangladesh Water Development Board for providing the cross sectional data.

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