Received: 10 February 2017 Revised: 3 April 2018 Accepted: 5 April 2018

DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12450

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Challenges for flood risk management in flood-prone Sirajganj

region of Bangladesh
Md.H. Ali1 | B. Bhattacharya2 | A.K.M.S. Islam3 | G.M.T. Islam3 | Md.S. Hossain4 | A.S. Khan5

1
Department of Civil Engineering, Chittagong
University of Engineering & Technology, Although Bangladesh has suffered from different types of floods which have
Chittagong, Bangladesh caused enormous damage to properties and lives, managing floods still remains a
2
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, challenging task. Flood management is a multisectoral activity due to its complex-
Delft, The Netherlands
ity, scale, and multidisciplinary nature. Sirajganj district can be regarded as one of
3
Institute of Water and Flood Management
the most vulnerable areas in Bangladesh and hence a study was carried out for
(IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering
and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh Sirajganj district to provide guidelines to combat challenges to flood risk manage-
4
Processing and Flood Forecasting Circle (PFFC), ment. The flood frequency analyses at three river stations using water level data
Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), were carried out, the flood inundation map for different return periods and a flood
Dhaka, Bangladesh depth versus damage curve are plotted to address the vulnerable areas and dam-
5
Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka, Bangladesh ages, and to help design flood mitigation structures. It can be inferred that damages
Correspondence will be proportional to return period since the risk is a function of hazard, vulnera-
Prof. Md. Hazrat Ali, Department of Civil
Engineering, Chittagong University of
bility, and exposure. Both structural and non-structural measures including rejuve-
Engineering & Technology, Chittagong 4349, nation of the Jamuna River and low-cost flood resistant building approaches for
Bangladesh. flood affected char (island) people are suggested along with a few recommenda-
Email: pdrmhali@cuet.ac.bd
tions to mitigate floods in the study area. The government, Non governmental orga-
Funding information
Netherlands Organization for International
nization (NGO), funding agencies, and transboundary countries should come
Cooperation in Higher Education, Grant/Award forward to mitigate flood hazards to improve the livelihood of the affected people.
Number: NICHE/BGD/081
KEYWORDS

Bangladesh, flood mitigation measures, flood risk, Sirajganj

1 | INTRODUCTION
The major disasters that affect in Bangladesh are floods,
cyclones, storm surges, flash floods, drought, tornados, river-
bank erosion, and landslides (UNEP, 2001). Floods constitute
about 50% of all natural disasters, and as a result, life and live-
lihoods are regularly affected by flooding (Guha-Sapir, Hargitt,
& Hoyosis, 2004; Jonkman, Maaskant, Boyd, & Levitan, 2009
and Vos, Rodriguez, Below, & Guha-Sapir, 2010). Many stud-
ies have identified floods as one of the major natural disasters
in Europe and elsewhere in the world due to the loss of human
lives (Brázdová & Říha, 2014; de Moel, van Alphen, & Aerts,
2009; Dráb & Říha, 2010; Jonkman, Gelder, & Vrijling, 2002;
Jonkman, Vrijling, & Vrouwenvelder, 2008; Klijn, Samuels, &
Van Os, 2008). Bangladesh is situated in South Asia and is
one of the largest deltas of the world, formed at the confluence
of the world's three major rivers—the Ganges, Brahmaputra,
and Meghna (GBM), and more than 230 major rivers and their
tributaries (Mirza, 2003). Located at the bottom of the mighty
GBM river system, Bangladesh receives water from 57 trans-
boundary rivers, out of which 54 originate from neighbouring
India and 3 from Myanmar.
The GBM basins cover a combined total catchment area
of about 1.76 × 106 km2 and extend over Bhutan, China,
India, Nepal, and Bangladesh (Figure 1). Only 8% of the total
drainage area lies within Bangladesh, while 62% in India,
18% in China, 8% in Nepal, and 4% in Bhutan. The annual
flow volume of the rivers is about 1,200 billion m3. The
annual sediment flow of these three major rivers has been esti-
mated to be about 1.8 billion tons. Almost all of its land area

© 2018 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
J Flood Risk Management. 2018;e12450. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jfr3 1 of 12
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12450
2 of 12
has been formed through siltation from these river systems.
These topographical characteristics of the country result in an
average river gradient in the delta area of about 6 cm/km
(1/17,000). The country has an average annual rainfall of
about 2,300 mm, the range being 1,500 mm in the west to
over 5,000 mm in the north-east. Floods occur in Bangladesh
almost every year and devastating ones in every 5–10 years.
Some 30–35% of the total land surface of the country is
flooded every year during wet monsoon (Milliman,
Broadus, & Gable, 1989). These normal floods are considered
as a blessing for Bangladesh providing vital moisture fertility
to the soil through the alluvial silt deposition (UNEP, 2001).
The geographical location, land characteristics, multiplic-
ity of rivers, and the monsoon climate render Bangladesh
highly vulnerable to flood hazards. Floods are regular phe-
nomena, with the most severe floods occurring during the
months of July and August. The occurrence of water-induced
disasters is a regular phenomenon in Bangladesh; living with
floods is not an option but a way of life (Paudyal, 2002).
Flash, pluvial, fluvial, and coastal floods are also observed
in Bangladesh. Flash flood occurs during the premonsoon
period (March to May) and are observed in the north-eastern
region due to intense rainfall in the neighbouring hilly regions
in India. Rain-fed flooding is caused by heavy rainfall and
drainage congestion and in secondary water courses known as
khals (streams). River floods result from snow-melt in the
Himalaya and heavy monsoon rainfall over the Himalaya,
Assam Hills, Tripura Hills, and the upper Brahmaputra and
Ganges floodplains. Coastal flooding mostly occurs during
the premonsoon and postmonsoon seasons. The economic
loss due to floods is one of the main hindrances to achieve tar-
geted development of the country.
The flood problem in Bangladesh is extremely complex.
The floods of 1954, 1955, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004,
ALI ET AL.
FIGURE 1 The Ganges, Brahmaputra, and
Meghna Rivers basins
2007, 2014, and 2016 all caused enormous damage to proper-
ties and considerable loss of life. In the case of most severe
floods, 68% or more land area of the country is affected; an
average year up to 25% area is flooded. The flood in 1988
affected 90,000 km2 of the area, caused damage of approxi-
mately US$ 2.0 billion, 2,330 deaths and affected 45 million
people. The 1998 flood caused damage of US$ 2.8 billions and
1,100 deaths (World Bank, 2002). In 2004, the flood damage
was estimated to be about US$ 2 billion. Flood damages are
largely due to agricultural damages, though the industries in the
Pabna and Sirajganj areas also suffered substantial damages
during the flood of 2004 and 2007. Table 1 presents a compari-
son of hydrological and socio-economical aspects of floods in
2007, 2004, 1998 and 1988 in Brahmaputra-Jamuna River.
The flood in 2014 caused inundation in Sirajganj Sadar,
Kazipur, Belkuchi, Chauhali, and Shahjadpur of Sirajganj
District, affecting a total of 69,438 families (partially and fully)
and 250,624 people (DMIC, 2014).
In this context, this papers presents the results from a
study focused primarily on determining the characteristics of
the floods occurred in the most flood vulnerable districts in
Bangladesh to provide a strategy to reduce flood risks. The
study first determined the areas of flood hazards to assess
the flood damage using depth-damage functions. Secondly,
the study reviewed the existing structural and non-structural
measures of flood risks management currently exist. Finally,
a set of guidelines were produced for reducing flood dam-
ages and casualties in the study area.
2 | S TUD Y A RE A
Sirajganj District of Rajshahi division has an area of about
2,497.92 km2. The main rivers are Jamuna, Baral, Ichamati,
ALI ET AL.
TABLE 1 Comparison of hydrological and socio-economical aspects of
floods in 2007, 2004, 1998, and 1988 in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river
Parameters 2007 2004 1998
Date of first crossing danger July 27, July 11, July 7,
level at rising stage 2007 2004 1998
Height of peak flood level 0.88 0.68 0.87
above danger level (m)
Duration of flood above 21 15 67
danger level (days)
Area inundated (km2)a 62,000 56,000 1,00,000
Fatalities (no.)b 649 700 1,100
Damage (USD in B$)b 1.0 2.0 2.8
a
Source: Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) (2017).
b
Source: Mallick (2013).
Karatoya, and Phuljuri. The annual rainfall is 1,610 mm
(BWDB, 2007). Moreover, the district has six municipali-
ties, six parliamentary seats, 9 Upazilas (=subdistricts),
82 unions, and 2016 villages. The population is 3,215,873.
The city has universities/colleges, hospitals, industries and
in many administrative reasons it has high importance in
Bangladesh. The economic activities in the Sirajganj district
are mostly agricultural. All cultivable areas are used for pro-
ducing monsoon (Aman) rice (June to October/November)
and Boro (dry period, Dec-May) rice (i.e., 2 crops a year).
Sirajganj district lies on the bank of Brahmaputra River,
which is locally known as the Jamuna River (Figure 2a).
The monsoon discharge of Jamuna is so high that it regularly
overflows the banks and creates flooding in most of the upa-
zilas of Sirajganj district. Sirajganj is flooded almost every
year,, with the most severe floods occurring in 1949, 1956,
1961, 1962, 1966, 1968, 1974, 1979, 1987, 1988, 1996,
1998, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2014, and 2016. Social data
and semi-structured interviews have been conducted in the
Sirajganj Sadar Upazila (Figure 2b). Sirajganj Sadar Upazila
is one of the Upazilas of Sirajganj District with a total area
325.77 km2.
With such a large area of the country flooded in 1998 the
impact was severe for a large number of people. The flood
suddenly inundated major parts of all the 9 Upazilas of the
district in mid-July 2007. The water level of the Jamuna
River in Sirajganj point (September 10, 2007 at 6 a.m.) was
above 77 cm of the Danger Level (13.75 m, defined by the
Bangladesh Water Development Board [BWDB], 2014).
The Sirajganj district was also inundated for 15 days in
2014. The most vulnerable areas in Sirajganj are the low flat
areas made up of deposited silt in the river locally called the
“char” (island) areas. These areas are inhabited by very poor
people who struggle to survive even in normal years. In the
district as the flood water rises most families try to stay in
their homes by simply raising their beds and furniture to live
above the water level. When the water reaches the roof level,
they move to higher ground within easy reach of their
homes. In many cases their animals drown as these areas of
high ground are barely large enough to accommodate even
3 of 12
the people. The floods bring a considerable health risk from
waterborne diseases as the wells are submerged, making the
1988 water unsafe. As a result, diseases such as cholera and diar-
July 09, rhoea spread widely, especially in the crowded conditions
1988
on the higher ground with limited sanitation facility. In the
1.12
worst hit areas, the flood removes complete villages and
16 large areas of farmland are swept out to the river. The roads
are flooded and this makes it very difficult to bring the relief
89,000 to the rural areas. In such severe floods the deposits tend to
2,379 be infertile sand rather than silt and when the water level
1.2 goes down large areas become infertile. To manage flood
risks both structural (e.g., embankments) and non-structural
(e.g., flood forecasting) measures are currently practised in
the study area. BWDB issues flood forecasts with a lead
time of 120 hours at Sirjaganj gauging station on the Jamuna
River using the flood forecasting (FF) models.
3 | METHODS
3.1 | Data collection
BWDB has an extensive network of water level, rainfall, dis-
charge, sediment, and water quality stations all over the
country. Data collection from the field has been established
on the basis of requirements of the FF Model. For daily
operation of the FF model, water level and rainfall data are
collected. Water level data from 84 stations, comprising of
three hourly readings from 6.00 a.m. to 6.00 p.m., are col-
lected. Daily rainfall data are also collected from 58 stations
across the country. The length of record in Bangladesh var-
ies from station to station and on an average, can be about
30 years. Landline phones and mobile phones are also used
to send the data. A pilot telemetry network covering 16 sta-
tions was established in 1996. This is mainly used to moni-
tor the water levels of the major rivers at border stations.
Limited WL, rainfall, and forecasts of upper catchments
from India stations are also collected through Internet, email,
and from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).
Figure S1, Supporting Information shows all the available
84 water level gauging stations used by the Flood Forecast-
ing and Warning Centre (FFWC) of BWDB for providing
FF and early warnings in major rivers of Bangladesh. Basin-
wise water level gauging stations (total 84) for providing FF
and early warnings is shown in Table S1. Rain gauges (total
58) used for FF and early warnings purposes is shown basin
wise in Table S2. Figure 2a shows the locations of the water
level gauge stations that were used for flood frequency
analysis.
3.2 | Flood frequency analysis
In this study, five distribution methods, namely, Two-
Parameter Log Normal (LN2), Three-Parameter Log Normal
(LN3), Pearson Type III (P3), Log-Pearson Type III (LP3),
4 of 12 ALI ET AL.

FIGURE 2 Location map of study area (a) Sirajganj district and (b) Sirajganj Upazila

and Extreme Value Type III (EV3) were used in the fre- checked for trends. In the case trends were found in the time
quency analysis (Chow, Maidment, & Mays, 1988). The series, the trends were removed from the data to make them
time series water level data at the selected stations were first stationary (Figure S2). The probability distributions
ALI ET AL.
functions (PDFs) were tested based on the probability plot
correlation coefficient (PPCC) (Filliben, 1975). A goodness-
of-fit assessment based on PPCC is useful for assessing
whether a proposed distribution is consistent with the at-site
data sample (Stedinger, Vogel, & Georgiou, 1993). The test
uses the correlation coefficient between the ordered observa-
tions and the corresponding fitted quantiles, determined by
plotting positions for each observation. Cunnane (1978)
plotting position formula was used to obtain the fitted quan-
tiles. The best-fit PDFs were selected and subsequently used
to determine the design flood level.
3.3 | Flood inundation mapping
Use of hydrodynamic models (e.g., HEC-RAS, MIKE11,
SOBEK, and ISIS) has been very common in flood inunda-
tion mapping. Apart from hydrodynamic model application
for developing inundation maps, Geographic Information
System (GIS) software has also been widely used to map
and model surface water and flood hazard. Digital Elevation
Model (DEM)-based flood extent is frequently adopted in
flood hazard studies. For monsoon floods, the water surface
slope from the river towards the floodplain is very small; the
whole inundated area appears as one big inundated water
body. As in Sirajganj Sadar the three water level guages
(SW_11, SW_49, and SW_66) on important rivers are in
close vicinity to the study area, no hydraulic simulation was
carried out. Instead, the interpolation technique available
with GIS system was applied using water level data
(of various return periods) of the three guage stations in
order to generate water level surface.
An essential data required for hydraulic simulation
and/or GIS interpolation of water surface is land topography.
The DEM data from Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission
(SRTM) was downloaded for the study area. The resolution
of the SRTM data is available approximately 90 m. The
DEM data were further processed using ArcGIS 9.3 to fill in
cells with no-data. The processing involved the production
of vector contours and points, and the re-interpolation of
these derived contours back into a raster DEM, followed by
filling in no-data cells using Spatial Analyst. The data were
then projected to WGS84 projection.
There are a number of interpolation techniques, designed
for particular purpose in ArcGIS 9.3.1 framework, for exam-
ple, kriging interpolation technique, spline interpolation
technique, and topo to raster method (ESRI, 2007). The topo
to raster interpolation tool of ArcGIS was applied for water
level interpolated surface generation. The point feature data
sets can be converted to 1-m resolution ArcGIS grid format
data sets using the topo to raster tool located in the ArcGIS
Toolbox (Tait, Sturman, & Smart, 2012). The topo to raster
tool in ArcGIS 3D analyst results in a connected drainage
structure and corrects representation of ridges and streams
(CollinsFosu et al., 2012).
5 of 12
3.4 | Flood damage assessment
The first step in vulnerability analysis is to identify the ele-
ments at risk in the study area. The elements at risk is
defined as the level of exposure with reference to agricul-
tural fields, buildings/ infrastructures, population, economic
activities, public services and utilities, etc., which can be
impacted by the flood hazard. Elements of risk were identi-
fied by analysing satellite images in the GIS environment
and hence obtaining land use map, followed by overlying
the elements onto flood inundation maps. Land use or land
cover data set was generated from the digital image classifi-
cation of Landsat satellite image of 2011. Supervised classi-
fication of LANDSAT images was done with Integrated
Land and Water Information System—ILWIS 3.4 Academic
image classification software to derive different land cover-
age in the existing study areas.
The quantification of vulnerability depends on suscepti-
bility of “elements at risk”, that is, the degree of loss to a
given element at risk at a given severity level, and is usually
expressed on a scale 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss) unit.
Damage due to flooding depends on several factors, such as
depth of flood inundation, duration of flooding, flow veloc-
ity, timing of occurrence, rate of rise of flood, sediment con-
centration and pollution. A limitation of the present study
was that it considered “depth of inundation” as the main
parameter for assessing flood damage functions for crop-
lands, rural settlements, and roads.
Another limitation has been that only the direct eco-
nomic damages of floods were considered, while some stud-
ies (e.g., Islam, 2005) indicated that indirect flood damage
(with multiplier effect) may assume a significant proportion
of the total flood damage. It is noted here while vulnerability
due to flood hazards encompasses physical, social, eco-
nomic, and environmental dimensions, only the physical
vulnerability aspects were considered in the study because
of limitations in time and resources for the investigation.
Considering depth as the flood damage parameter,
depth-damage relationships (alternatively called loss func-
tions or vulnerability functions) were developed for different
elements at risk (crops, settlements, and roads) based on data
or information that exist in different secondary literature/
reports and organisations, and extensive interviews with the
local people conducted as part of the questionnaire survey.
Depth-damage curves relate to a specific class of buildings
or crops and present information on the relationship of flood
damage to depth of flooding (or stage) (Smith, 1994).
To develop depth-damage curve for crops, questionnaire
surveys were conducted in the study sites to gather crop
damage data from actual flood events in 1988, 1998, 2004,
and 2007, as well as damage corresponding to hypothetical
inundation depths in agricultural lands. Damage was
assessed in terms of the amount of money (presented as per-
centage of the total production value) necessary to recover
the original production.
6 of 12
Valuation surveys were conducted for the settlement
vulnerability assessment. Following the study by Islam
and Sado (2000), settlement was classified in four types
such as brick floor—brick wall, brick floor—Corrugated
Iron (CI) sheet wall, mud floor—CI sheet wall, and mud
floor—mud wall. For the selected properties, the survey
quantified the damage of all items due to flood and their
current value based on type, quality, and degree of wear.
This included information on the height above the floor
of each item or the height taken as standard from house to
house. The information for all samples of each element
class were then averaged and depth-damage curves
constructed.
4 | R E S U L T S AN D D I S C U S S I O N S
4.1 | Damage assessment for flooding in Sirajganj
Land-use classes for agricultural and rural settlement in
the study area are about 28% and 13%, respectively. The
flooding problem becomes severest when the peak flows of
the three main river basins (GBM) coincide. Assessment of
flood damage is important for flood management, recovery
and mitigation. The Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequences
model is frequently used in analysing flooding risk. “Depth of
inundation” is considered as the main parameter for assessing
flood damage. Duration of inundation has not been
considered for damage assessment.
The trend-free hydrologic data were used to determine
designed flood levels for several return periods (2.33,
10, 20, 50, and 100 years). The results of the goodness-of-fit
test to select the best fit distribution are shown in Table S3.
Based on the result of the goodness-of-fit test, Pearson Type
III (P3) was selected for SW 11 and SW 49 and Log Pearson
Type III (LP3) for SW 66 station. Figures 5.3–5.5 show the
results of frequency analysis at station SW 11, station SW
49, and station SW 66, respectively. Table 2 show frequency
analyses at Sirajganj station of three rivers. Plots of water
level versus the standardised probabilities for three stations
are shown in Figure S3. Figure 3 is plotted to help deter-
mine the return period with known water levels at the sta-
tions, which in turn help design any flood mitigation
structures. It can be inferred from the analyses that for the
design the flood mitigation structures like embankment,
spurs, etc. a return period 100 years or more should be con-
sidered. The danger level of the Jamuna River at Sirajganj
point is 13.75 m, but corresponding danger levels for Kara-
towa and Bangali Rivers are not known. The danger levels
for these rivers need to be fixed as it is known that flooding
from these rivers also occurred in Sirajganj.
The flood water levels obtained from flood frequency
analysis for various return periods were used to generate
inundation map for each return period. The flood inundation
maps corresponding to floods of 2.33 and 100-year return
ALI ET AL.
periods are shown in Figure 4. Figures S4–S8 show the
flood inundation maps for floods of 100-, 50-, 20-, 10-, and
2.33-year return periods.
Supervised classification of Landsat image with ILWIS
3.4 software showed the presence of different land use clas-
ses. About 28 and 13% area were found to be covered by
agricultural and rural settlement, respectively, whereas urban
land cover was negligible (1.9%). Figures S9 and S10 pro-
vide further information.
Depth-damage curves were developed using surveys
(questionnaire) conducted in the study sites to gather crop
damage data from actual flood events (1988, 1998, 2004,
and 2007) (Figure 5). Damage was assessed in terms of the
amount of money (normalised to the total production value).
Vulnerable livelihood groups include daily labourers and
small and marginal farmers as they are the poorest in the
communities.
4.2 | Structural measures of flood management in
Bangladesh
The flood control structural measures generally used in
Bangladesh are (a) Dykes, embankments, polders, levees,
bunds, or floodwalls along the major rivers and estuaries,
(b) Dredging of major drainage channels which do not have
sufficient cross-sectional areas, (c) Diversion of flood flows
through the distributaries, (d) Shorten the length of meander
rivers by cut-offs where possible, (e) Closing down the tidal
estuaries by cross-dams to stop tidal flooding, (f ) Watershed
Management and afforestation, and (g) Rubber dams as a
possibility to flood fighting. Embankments dykes, polders,
levee, bund, or flood wall are the most preferred options in
Bangladesh. The major city of the study area (Sirajganj
town) is protected by flood Embankment (known as
Sirajganj Hard Point) along the right banks of the Jamuna
river. On the other hand, non-structural measures such as FF
and early warnings are also provided for the study area from
BWDB. In the following section, non-structural measures of
flood risks management for the study area will discussed in
details.
4.3 | Non-structural measures of flood risks
management
4.3.1 | FF and early warnings
Flood forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS)
of BWDB integrates FF, assessment of flood impact, the
dissemination of warning messages and response of
BWDB and the public. FFWC provides flood warnings
with 3-day lead-time (24, 48, and 72 hours) and for some
locations with 5-day lead time. A forecast of flood water
level is provided at designated gauge locations, and one of
them is near the city of Pabna (close to Sirajganj). The
forecast is done by running a set of hydrological (NAM)
and hydrodynamic (MIKE11) models. Additionally, up to
ALI ET AL. 7 of 12

TABLE 2 Water levels (m, PWD) for different return periods at Sirajganj Station of Brahmaputra-Jamuna, Karatowa, and Bangali rivers

River name Brahmaputra–Jamuna

Station name Sirajganj
Station ID SW49
Return period
Distribution methods 2.33 5 10 20 50 100 Correlation coefficient Rank
LN2 14.15 14.52 14.77 14.99 15.10 15.40 .99260 2
LN3 14.13 14.48 14.72 14.92 15.02 15.30 .99249 3
P3 14.14 14.48 14.71 14.90 15.00 15.26 .99321 1
LP3 14.13 14.51 14.79 15.03 15.15 15.50 .98986 4
EV1 14.05 14.42 14.72 15.01 15.17 15.66 .97163 5
River name Karatoya
Station name Sirajganj
Station ID SW66
Return period
Distribution methods 2.33 5 10 20 50 100 Correlation coefficient Rank
LN2 11.71 12.28 12.68 13.02 13.41 13.68 .991416 3
LN3 11.67 12.27 12.71 13.11 13.58 13.91 .990575 4
P3 11.71 12.27 12.71 13.03 13.43 13.71 .99158 2
LP3 11.70 12.28 12.69 13.05 13.47 13.76 .991586 1
EV1 11.60 12.20 12.69 13.16 13.76 14.22 .979099 5
River name Bangali
Station name Sirajganj
Station ID SW11
Return period
Distribution methods 2.33 5 10 20 50 100 Correlation coefficient Rank
LN2 13.99 14.89 15.53 16.08 16.37 17.16 .97801 4
LN3 13.99 14.72 15.18 15.53 15.71 16.14 .98581 2
P3 13.96 14.72 15.20 15.59 15.79 16.28 .98593 1
LP3 14.08 14.91 15.44 15.87 16.08 16.62 .98550 3
EV1 13.69 14.56 15.27 15.96 16.35 17.50 .94884 5

FIGURE 3 Frequency analyses at Sirajganj station of three rivers

10 days probabilistic forecasts are available at 18 desig-
nated locations in Bangladesh. Unfortunately, there is no
location near Pabna or Kusthia, which receives probabilis-
tic forecasts. A schematic diagram showing the activities
of FFWC with time schedule is shown in Figure S11.
The deterministic forecast is generated in collaboration
with the Institute of Water Modelling (www.iwmbd.org),
which uses MIKE Basin (of DHI) model of the Ganges-
Brahmaputra Basin (DEM with SRTM data) with meteorolog-
ical input of daily rainfall from about 300 rain gauges in the
GBM basin and rainfall forecast up to 5-days using the WRF
model to generate the boundary condition at the border of
Bangladesh (Hardinge bridge for Ganges and Bahadurabad
for Brahmaputra) to be used in a set of hydrological (MIKE
NAM) and hydraulic (MIKE11) model to generate flood fore-
casts. The combinations of models generate a forecast of up
8 of 12
FIGURE 5 Normalised damage corresponding to depth (a) for agriculture
and (b) for settlement
to 5 days. The probabilistic forecast is generated in collabora-
tion with Regional Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for
Africa and Asia (RIMES), which also uses a basin (Ganges–
ALI ET AL.
FIGURE 4 Inundation maps for (a) 2.33 and
(b) 100-year return periods
Brahmaputra) approach with meteorological input from 1- to
10-day weather forecast from the European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecast and satellite-based rainfall
estimates (with limited gauge data) to produce flood forecasts
up to 10 days. Although, the long forecast horizon of the
probabilistic forecast is an advantage, its accuracy is a matter
of concern. As data from upstream riparian countries are lim-
ited and intermittent, it is difficult to carry out longer range
(>10 days) FF comfortably in Bangladesh.
Daily forecast bulletin is prepared with forecast up to
5 days and region-wise flood warning messages. The bulle-
tins are disseminated daily to more than 600 recipients
including different ministries, offices (central and district
level), individuals, press, development partners, research
organisations and Non governmental organizations (NGOs)
including the President's and Prime Minister's Secretariat
through email, website, fax, hard copy, SMS, and interactive
voice response. Whenever the forecast river stage crosses
the danger level, the key officials are informed through Short
Messaging Service (SMS). The responsibility of disseminat-
ing flood warnings down to the local level lies with the
Disaster Management Committees at the district and subdis-
trict levels (Figure 6).
Presently, Bangladesh has almost 100% coverage of
mobile phone network and about 80% people have mobile
phones. Recent studies have shown the usefulness in using
mobile phones in communicating FF and warning
(Cumiskey, 2013; FFWC, 2017). It is necessary to deploy
both traditional and modern channels of communication.
Local Government Organisations and Community-Based
Organisations can play an important role in this regard. Fur-
ther field surveys are necessary to assess the effectiveness of
ALI ET AL.
messages and the channels used, and for undertaking
research to devise proper feedback mechanisms.
4.3.2 | Policy instruments
Basic flood forecasts only provide information about the
water level at designated gauging stations on the main rivers.
When required the forecast must be converted into a warn-
ing. The warning messages need to be understandable to the
people. Other policy instruments which may be further
explored are: dissemination of flood forecasts to help speedy
evacuation, spatial planning for reduction of runoff, updating
building codes, changing cropping pattern, evacuation and
shelter management, disaster relief, and flood insurance.
Low-cost buildings resistant to floods (and earthquakes)
will be a solution for flood affected people living in the char
areas. The low-cost housing can be constructed in a flood-
stricken region that receives extreme temperatures year-
round, meeting the basic residential needs of a residential
dwelling. The buildings may be assembled using basic com-
ponents and bamboo module units secured with anchors,
ties, and solid connections. The structure should be strong
enough to float in floods and may be built with local
FIGURE 6 Dissemination process of Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, Bangladesh
9 of 12
materials, such as, bamboo, leaves and recycled oil con-
tainers with traditional architectural characteristics.
4.3.3 | Transboundary nature of flood risk management in
Sirajganj
The Upper Ganges basin comprises of a basin area of
965,000 km2 at Hardinge Bridge, Bangladesh. The bulk of
the basin area is located in India and the rest in Nepal and
China. Brahmaputra is a major international river covering a
drainage area of 580,000 km2, out of which 50.5% lies in
China, 33.6% in India, 8.1% in Bangladesh, and 7.8% in
Bhutan. The Meghna Basin comprises of an area of about
75,500 km2, out of which around 68% area lies within India.
The upstream catchment is modelled using MIKE Basin,
which provides the upstream boundary (discharge) at three
locations (Hardinge Bridge, Bahadurabad, and Bhairab
Bazar) in Bangladesh for the NAM-MIKE11 model. FFWC
receives daily rainfall data from about 300 gauges from the
upstream catchment to run the MIKE Basin model. Addi-
tionally, forecast rainfall from WRF model is used. There
are more rain gauges in India operated by provincial govern-
ments, which are not shared. Sharing of water level data of
the upstream catchment is limited (four locations on Ganges
10 of 12
and three locations on Brahmaputra). Fostering cooperation
and building information network have been initiated and
established in various river basins of the world. Examples
can be cited from Rhine Basin (http://www.iksr.org/),
Danube Basin (https://www.icpdr.org), etc. Thus, with the
cooperation from India and China, Bangladesh can go
for some alternative flood mitigation measures to reduce
flood risk, such as, (a) data and information sharing,
(b) construction of retention reservoirs and silt-traps in areas
outside Bangladesh, (c) afforestation to obstruct runoff to
principal rivers, and (d) diversion of flood flow of the Ganges
into the Bay of Bengal with the help of Farakka Barrage.
The rivers of Bangladesh carry about 1.2 billion tons
sediment each year. Among them Brahmaputra suffers silta-
tion every year, new bars are developing and old bars are
becoming larger, and hence, river instability increases con-
tinuously. Although expensive capital dredging may be prac-
tised initially to dredge the submerged dunes and newly
developed/old chars to increase the conveyance. For sustain-
ability, maintenance dredging will be needed for periodic
removal of redeposited silt. The dredged materials can be
used in increasing the height of river banks, construction,
and land reclamation.
4.4 | Impact of climate change on flood risks
According to IPCC estimates, the rise in the sea level would
be in the range of 15–95 cm by 2,100 (IPCC, 2007). Various
studies based on hydrologic models report the impact of cli-
mate change on water resources (e.g., Bobba, Singh, Jeffries,
& Bengtsson, 1997; Kirshen, 2002; Querner, 1997;
Wilkinson & Cooper, 1993). It is likely that with climate
change flooding events will increase in frequency and inten-
sity [http://ecowatch.com/climate-change-news]. Firstly, sea
level rise, increased storm frequency, changing seasonal pat-
terns and an increase in the probability of extreme events
mean that low-lying areas will be at greater risk of flooding
in future years (IPCC, 2007). Secondly, increased public and
private developments in floodplains will have a dramatic
effect on both the annual damage estimates and the distribu-
tion areas at risk. Quantifying possible changes of floods
due to climate change need consideration of uncertainties,
particularly, in terms of changes in the variability and
extremes of precipitation. The predicted changes of future
flows of the Brahmaputra basin have been reported by Gain,
Immerzeel, Sperna Weiland, and Bierkens (2011). Increasing
flood risk requires the development and application of an
appropriate set of tools to inform local and regional govern-
ments on management policy, engineers for planning and
design purposes and insurers on changing exposures.
Bangladesh has established the Bangladesh Climate
Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) and the Bangladesh Climate
Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) allocating $200 million
and cumulating further around $114 million, respectively.
Three thousand cyclone shelters have been constructed, over
ALI ET AL.
40,000 volunteers have been trained and 10,000 km of
embankments have been constructed. Many countries have
pledged to provide funding for adaptation and mitigation in
developing nations, such as Bangladesh. The Copenhagen
Accord (COP 15) also pledges $100 millions of public and
private finance by 2020, mostly to developing nations. Popu-
lation pressures will continue to see more and more build-
ings in low-lying coastal areas and flood plains. Investment
in adequate defences will need to grow massively to protect
against this advancing threat.
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries
in the world (> 1,000 residents/km2). Flooding and extreme
weather already contribute to increased domestic migration—
particularly to major cities such as Dhaka and Chittagong. Cli-
mate change is also expected to increase the flow of cross-
border migration from neighbouring countries. The govern-
ment of Bangladesh has prepared a National Adaptation Pro-
gram of Action (NAPA) that outlines priority climate change
adaptation strategies, including planting of trees, providing
reliable sources of drinking water, and improving agricultural
techniques in areas impacted by salinisation and flash flood-
ing. The NAPA states that these efforts may help to reduce
migration but it does not include actions to address population
pressures or plan for the continuing and inevitable flow of in-
country or cross-border migrants.
5 | C O NC L U S IO N S
Although, floods affect almost every part of the country with
varying intensity and frequency, Sirajganj is regarded as one
of the most flood vulnerable districts of the country. Because
of lack of quality flood data, WL data from three river sta-
tions were chosen in this study. The WL frequency analyses
will be helpful in determining flood risk and in the design of
various flood mitigation structures. In the management of
floods, Bangladesh has taken many structural and non-
structural measures mentioned in the preceding sections. To
mitigate flood and reduce flood damage effects, both struc-
tural and non-structural measures are to be adopted in the
study area. The existing flood management measures are not
sufficient for effective flood management at both the
regional and local levels as they have serious weaknesses.
To prevent frequent flood attacks, reduce damages and save
people from sufferings of floods, the major weaknesses in
flood management at both the regional and local levels have
to be addressed precisely and necessary steps must be taken
up. To combat challenges the study suggested the following
recommendations:
1. Reliable adequate data are to be ensured for short term
forecast for urban area, and long-term forecast for rural
areas to allow harvesting time to farmers.
2. In severe flooding situations, the char people generally
leave the area and take shelters on nearby high lands/
ALI ET AL.
flood shelter. Provisions should be kept to resettle them
on their pre-occupied lands after flood for their
rehabilitation.
3. Initiatives should be taken by the BWDB to involve
community-based NGOs, private–public partnerships in
Sirajganj to gather data, generate information, and to
disseminate information to flood affected people using
mobile phones, etc., in order to ensure community-based
sustainable flood risk management.
4. Further improvements of FF and warning system with
enhancing of dissemination at the community level are
required.
5. Plans to address the impacts of climate change should
be integrated with development goals that can reduce
pressures to migration.
6. Low-cost flood resistant buildings are to be constructed
free of cost for the poor people of char areas with fund-
ing from the government, Non governmental organiza-
tions (NGOs), donor agencies, etc.
7. Appropriate structural measures to be constructed for at
least a return period equal to 100 years in conjunction
with non-structural measures to mitigate floods in the
study area.
8. Rejuvenation of the Brahmaputra River by dredging is
required. Safe conveyance of the large cross-boundary
flows through the major rivers to the
Bay of Bengal can be made by channel`ing and stabilis-
ing these rivers with appropriate measures. The rivers,
khals, and flood ways should be kept free from
encroachment for free flood flows.
9. Required fund should be allocated for the maintenance
of flood management and drainage infrastructures, so
that the annual maintenance works are to be started in
time.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors wish to thank Flood Forecasting and Warning
Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development Board
(BWDB) for their technical supports in providing necessary
data and information, and the NICHE/BGD/081 project for
financial assistance in this study.
ORCID
Md.H. Ali http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9874-0063
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