International Journal of Environmental Studies

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Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in

Bangladesh: a reality check

Hugh Brammer

To cite this article: Hugh Brammer (2016) Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in
Bangladesh: a reality check, International Journal of Environmental Studies, 73:6, 865-886, DOI:
10.1080/00207233.2016.1220713

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2016.1220713

Published online: 22 Sep 2016.

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International Journal of Environmental Studies, 2016
Vol. 73, No. 6, 865–886, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2016.1220713

Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in

Bangladesh: a reality check
HUGH BRAMMER*
Retired. Formerly FAO Team Leader in East Pakistan, FAO/UNDP Soil Survey Project of Pakistan
1961-71 and FAO Agricultural Development Adviser Bangladesh, 1974-87

This paper seeks to correct prevailing assumptions about Bangladesh’s susceptibility to floods,
tropical cyclones and drought, and the extent to which global warming has already affected the coun-
try’s climate. Analysis of 50 years of the country’s climate and hydrological data showed no evidence
that rainfall amounts have changed or that floods, tropical cyclones and droughts have increased in
frequency or severity. The extent to which global warming might have affected temperatures is made
uncertain by the probably greater impact on temperatures at recording stations of widespread changes
in land use and the heat-island effect resulting from urban expansion around the stations. The paper
reviews both the diversity of environments in Bangladesh’s coastal area exposed to sea-level rise and
the possible mitigation methods. Two major conclusions are drawn: that population increase and rapid
urbanisation pose more serious immediate problems for development planning in Bangladesh than cli-
mate change; and that education at all levels needs to include practical field studies that could provide
all students with a better understanding of the country’s diverse and locally complex environments.

Keywords: Bangladesh; Climate change; Cyclones; Drought; Floods

1. Introduction

This paper aims to substitute factual information for widespread assumptions made in
Bangladesh and elsewhere, e.g. by Dastagir [1] and Wikipedia [2], about that country’s
exposure to flood, cyclone and drought disasters and their link to global warming. The
author spent over 20 years in Bangladesh and the former East Pakistan working on soil
surveys and agricultural development, wrote several books on the country’s environment,
natural disasters and land use (including Brammer [3], [4]), and analysed 50 years of the
country’s rainfall and temperature data in order to assess the evidence for climate change
related to global warming (Brammer [5]). Floods, cyclones, drought, climate change and
sea-level rise are described systematically below under relevant headings. Conclusions and
recommendations are given in the final section. Figure 1 shows places referred to in the text.

2. Floods

There is no evidence that floods in Bangladesh have increased in severity or duration in

recent years, as reported for example by Dewan [6]; nor, as is widely assumed, are floods
in Bangladesh generally caused by rivers overflowing their banks.

*Email: h.brammer@btinternet.com

© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

866 H. Brammer

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eg
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Pad
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JESSORE
. Jessore
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AG
NOAKHALI
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0 20 40 60 80 km
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0 0
880 89 0 90 0 91 92

Figure 1. Location of Districts and places named.

Large areas of Bangladesh are, in fact, flooded every year. Soil surveys in the 1960s
and 1970s found that 62% of the country was subject to annual flooding (Brammer [7]).
Farmers classify land as Medium Highland (flooded up to 90 cm deep); Medium Lowland
(flooded 90–190 cm deep); Lowland (flooded 180–300 cm deep); and Very Lowland
(flooded > 300 cm deep); land above normal flood levels is classified as Highland. But it
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 867

is important to distinguish between normal ‘flooding’ (barsha in Bengali) and abnormal

‘floods’ (bonna).

• Normal flooding occurs every year, as reflected in the depth-of-flooding land types
described above, to which rural people have adapted their traditional settlements and
agricultural practices. The different land types occur within floodplain villages,
linked to the landscape of former levees and backswamps (now ridges and basins)
created over time by meandering rivers. Farmers’ crop choice and cropping patterns
are finely adapted to these micro-differences in elevation and associated flooding
characteristics.
• Floods which damage or destroy crops and property occur at intervals of several
years, and they vary in frequency with location in the country. They are more com-
mon alongside rivers that are subject to flash floods in the country’s high-rainfall
eastern Districts than they are on the floodplains adjoining the country’s two major
rivers, the Brahmaputra and Ganges (see below).

Serious floods that cause extensive crop damage have occurred, on average, about once in
3−5 years, and so-called catastrophic floods on the scale of those in 1974, 1987, 1988,
1998, 2004 and 2009 − which displaced many thousands of people, caused extensive dam-
age to property and crops, and sometimes caused many human and livestock casualties −
occur at intervals of ca 5–10 years or longer [4]. There is no evidence that such floods
have increased in frequency or in height over time (see below), although flood disaster
impacts can have increased because of increases in population and the economic value of
crops and property affected. In fact, the growing use of irrigation has reduced the impacts
of monsoon season floods on agricultural production: more than 50% of Bangladesh’s rice
production is now in the dry season; and the irrigated dry-season boro rice crop has
replaced large areas of flood-prone aus and deepwater aman rice formerly grown in the
rainy season.
Table 1 shows that maximum annual flood levels in Bangladesh’s two major rivers have
not increased in height or in frequency over the past 50 years; (danger level is the bankful
stage of a river at which overland flooding could occur). The frequency of bankful stages
in the Ganges river in Bangladesh has, in fact, decreased significantly since 1988, probably
owing to the abstraction of water from the river at the Farakka Barrage in India.
Both floods and flooding in Bangladesh occur when high river levels prevent water
derived from local rainfall from draining off adjoining land [4]). More than 90% of the
flow in Bangladesh’s three major rivers, the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, Ganges and Meghna

Table 1. Frequency of Jamuna and Ganges rivers exceeding danger level 1959−2008 by decad.

No. of years/(Highest recorded, m)

Danger level
River Station (m) 1959−68 1969−78 1979−88 1989−98 1999−08

Jamuna Bahadurabad 19.50 7 9 7 7 8

(19.99) (20.26) (20.61) (20.06) (20.40)
Ganges Hardinge 14.25 8 5 6 3 2
Bridge (14.57) (14.69) (14.87) (15.19) (14.45)

Note: No records for 1963 at Bahadurabad and 1971 at Hardinge Bridge.

868 H. Brammer

rivers, is derived from outside the country, and the high levels in these rivers in the
monsoon season block drainage of water derived from local rainfall off adjoining flood-
plain land; the groundwater-table may rise above the ground surface in basin centres at
such times. Only relatively small areas on so-called active and very young floodplains
within and immediately adjoining river channels are flooded by river water and receive
new sediment.
The soil surveys referred to above found that most floodplain land between the major
rivers has soils with acid topsoils and well-developed subsoil B horizons, not the neutral
or calcareous, stratified alluvium that occurs on land regularly flooded by river water. This
finding has important implications for the maintenance of soil fertility (Brammer [8]):
recently-deposited alluvium on river char land is noticeably less fertile than are the soils
on adjoining floodplains developed in older alluvium.1 Ives and Messerli [9] had earlier
punctured a prevalent myth that floods in Bangladesh were caused by deforestation in the
Himalayas.
There is a long history of building flood embankments in what is now Bangladesh.
Rennell, starting out on his surveys to map the rivers of Bengal in June 1764, described
embankments 12 feet high and 14 yards broad along five miles of the west bank of the
Ganges river near Kushtia and for nine miles near Pabna on the east bank, the latter
already breached by river-bank erosion in several places and so old that no-one could
tell him when they had been built (La Touche [10]). The modern, country-wide, river
embankment programme was initiated in the late 1950s following severe floods along the
Brahmaputra river in 1954 and 1955. Those floods had followed the severe Assam earth-
quake in June 1950 which had brought down whole Himalayan mountain sides into
Brahmaputra tributaries, the sediments from which raised the Brahmaputra bed levels in
the north of the then East Pakistan in subsequent years [4].
By 1988, about 7500 km of embankments had been built along both sides of the Tista
and Ganges rivers, the right bank of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river, about half of the left
bank of the latter river, long stretches of the Padma and lower Meghna rivers, and both
banks of most eastern rivers; they had also been built alongside tidal rivers near the coast
under the so-called Coastal Embankment Project. These projects absorbed about 10% of
the East Pakistan/Bangladesh annual development plan budgets. Despite this expenditure,
as indicated above, severe floods have continued to occur periodically, illustrating that
damaging floods are not caused solely by high river levels but by the combination of high
river levels and heavy rainfall over Bangladesh (Messerli and Hofer [11]). The mainte-
nance and reconstruction of these embankments has provided a continuing problem, espe-
cially along the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river because of riverbank erosion, and in the
Coastal Embankment Project area because of inadequate funding for maintenance and
repair (Brammer [4, 12]).
Although, as advocated by Dewan [6], it is important for governments to take into
account traditional knowledge in flood management, it needs also to be recognised that tra-
ditional knowledge and customs are no longer sufficient by themselves to cope with flood
disasters with today’s population numbers and a developed economy. Flood management
today requires skilled technical planning and a strong management authority. Ideally, bene-
ficiaries should contribute towards the costs and maintenance of the benefits they receive
(in normal years). But that is not the custom in Bangladesh. Experience has shown that
supposed beneficiaries in government-funded development projects expect a paternalistic
government to provide the benefits free of cost, a situation that should not be unexpected
given the top-down mores of Bengali society (Maloney [13]).
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 869

There are good reasons for such dependency relationships in a disaster-prone society. It
is conspicuous that the areas of big landlords and sharecropper tenants are in the most dis-
aster-prone areas of the country: i.e. coastal areas exposed to cyclones and storm surges;
drought-prone western areas; river and estuarine char land subject to riverbank erosion;
and the seasonally-deeply-flooded Sylhet Basin in the north-centre. Small farmers would
be wiped out economically by the total loss of their crops or land in the recurrent kinds of
disaster affecting such areas. Traditionally, they depended for relief and new seed on large
(often absentee) landlords living off half the crop production from their sizeable holdings
in a mutually beneficial relationship which also ensured continuing production for the
land-owners (and for the country). This inequitable social system can only be superseded
if and when government is able to provide and support measures that will ensure reliable
economic security to those living in disaster-prone areas.

3. Cyclones

Cyclones (properly termed ‘tropical cyclones’) do not, as asserted in Wikipedia [2] and
by Rahman and Rahman [14], give rise to extensive damage to property and loss of
lives every year in Bangladesh; nor, as the two latter authors assert, are cyclones gener-
ated by ponds or shrimp farms in southern Bangladesh. The tropical cyclones that peri-
odically hit Bangladesh are the equivalent of storms named hurricanes or typhoons in
other tropical regions. They form in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons around
latitudes 8–10° N in the Bay of Bengal and initially move westward as they strengthen.
Some hit Sri Lanka or south-eastern India, but the majority curve round to a more
northerly, then north-easterly, direction and cross the coasts of West Bengal, Bangladesh
or Myanmar, although some weaken before they reach the coast. Cyclones occasionally
pass inland to affect central and, more rarely, northern Districts of Bangladesh. There is
still much to learn about the generation of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the tracks
that they follow.
Tropical cyclones have sustained wind speeds of >117 km/hr near their centre. The next
lower class of such storms, with sustained wind speeds of 87−117 km/hr, are termed
severe cyclonic storms. Both categories of such storms can cause substantial damage to
property and crops by strong wind, heavy rainfall and a storm surge.
A storm surge is the raised sea-level caused partly by the low atmospheric pressure on
the ocean surface near the centre of a cyclone and partly by the piling up of the sea by
strong on-shore winds as a cyclone approaches the coast; surges can be particularly high
in the funnel-shaped Meghna estuary in the south-centre of Bangladesh. Storm surges can
reach heights of up to ca 9 m above normal sea-level (Table 2), and it is storm surges that
cause most of the human and livestock casualties when cyclones hit coastal areas.2 The
damage and casualties they cause partly depend on whether they hit the coast near high
tide or low tide. Flooding of land with sea-water can damage crops and temporarily sali-
nise soils: the latter is more important if it occurs at the end of the rainy season than if it
occurs in the pre-monsoon season when following heavy monsoon rainfall can quickly
desalinise soils.
Table 2 shows that, contrary to widespread assertions and assumptions, the frequency of
tropical cyclones and severe cyclonic storms affecting Bangladesh has not increased in
recent decades. In fact, there were more cyclones in the 1960s when global warming was
at a still-stand than in the period since 2000 when global warming has been occurring.
870 H. Brammer

Table 2. Incidence of tropical cyclones and severe cyclonic storms affecting Bangladesh 1960–2013.

Maximum Maximum
wind speed storm surge Main District(s)
Date km/hr height (m) affected Casualties

1960s
1960, 8–11 October 160 5–7 Chittagong, Barisal, 3000
Noakhali
1960, 28–31 October 193 6.1 Chittagong, Barisal 5249
1961, 5–9 May 160 6.6 Barisal 11,468
1961, 27–31 May 160 8.96 Chittagong 10,466
1962, 27–30 October 95 2.5–3 Chittagong 1000
1963, 25–29 May 209 2.44–3.66 Chittagong 11,520
1965, 10–12 May 160 5.95 Chittagong, Barisal 17,279
1965, 26 May-1 June NR 5.95 Barisal, Patuakhali 12,000
1965, 7–15 December 210 3.66 Chittagong 1873
1966, 27 Sept-1 Oct. 120 9.54 Barisal, Khulna, 850
Noakhali
1967, 8–11 October 157 9.3 Noakhali, NR
Chittagong
1967, 20–24 October 148 NR Chittagong 270
1970s
1970, 2–7 May 150 4.87 Chittagong NR
1970, 18–24 October 163 NR Khulna, Barisal 200–300
1970, 8–13 November 224 6.0 Khulna, Patuakhali, 200,000−500,000
Barisal, Noakhali,
Chittagong
1971, 3–6 November NR 5.76 Chittagong NR
1973, 14–18 November 102 3.81 Noakhali NR
1973, 5–9 December 111 4.15 Khulna 1000
1974, 23–28 November 163 4.96 Chittagong 300
1977, 9–13 May 113 0.6 Patuakhali, Barisal, NR
Noakhali,
Chittagong
1980s
1981, 6–10 December 120 2.13–4.57 Khulna 72
1983, 14–15 October 93 NR Chittagong 43
1983, 6–9 November 136 NR Chittagong 300
1985, 22–25 May 154 4.64 Chittagong, 11,069
Noakhali
1986, 7–9 November 110 NR Chittagong, Khulna >50
1988, 18–20 October NR NR Barisal, Patuakhali 300
1988, 23–30 November 160 0.61–4.42 Khulna 6133
1990s
1990, 14–18 December 115 1.5–2.1 Chittagong NR
1991, 24–30 April 225 3.66–6.71 Chittagong 138,882
1994, 29-April–2 May 278 1.52–1.83 Chittagong 118
1995, 22–25 November 140 3.05 Chittagong 650
1997, 15–19 May 232 4.6 Chittagong 155
1997, 23–27 September 150 4.6 Chittagong 78
1998, 17–20 May 173 0.91 Chittagong 14
1998, 11–22 November 120 1.2–2.4 Patuakhali 40

(Continued)
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 871

Table 2. (Continued).
Maximum Maximum
wind speed storm surge Main District(s)
Date km/hr height (m) affected Casualties

2000s
2007, 11–16 November 223 4.57 Barisal, Dhaka 3363
2009, 25 May 85–95 3.0 Khulna 190
2010s
2013, 10–16 May 90 NR Noakhali 43

Notes: (1) Abstracted from Ali and Choudhury 2014 [15].

(2) The dates include those of formation in the Bay of Bengal. The last one or two days are those when the cyclone affected
coastal Districts.
(3) In column 2, numbers in bold indicate true cyclones. Others are severe cyclonic storms.
(4) NR = Not recorded.
(5) Casualties include dead and those reported missing.

The interval between successive storms affecting Bangladesh ranged between two weeks
in October 1960 and nine years between November 1998 and November 2007 (Table 2).
Of the 38 cyclones and severe cyclonic storms affecting the country recorded in the
54 years since 1960, more occurred in the post-monsoon season than in the pre-monsoon
season (Ali and Choudhury [15]). The fact that Chittagong District was affected more fre-
quently than the other coastal Districts is at least partly accounted for by the fact that that
District has a coastline of ca 275 km facing the Bay of Bengal compared with Noakhali
(ca 60 km), Barisal-Patuakhali (ca 70 km) and Khulna (ca 90 km).

4. Tornadoes

The assertions by Rahman and Rahman [14] that tornadoes (and cyclones) are generated
by ‘terrestrial wet bodies’ and shallow ponds that ‘get heated and create low pressure
centres (and) thus increase the frequency of local tornadoes and cyclones’ are incorrect.
Tornadoes predominantly occur in the hot pre-monsoon season when much of the land is
dry. The authors have apparently confused tornadoes – revolving storms with a tubular
funnel extending from cloud to ground, usually <100 m in diameter in Bangladesh, and
with very strong winds circulating around the centre – with the much more frequent line-
squalls (nor’-westers; kal baishakhi). The latter are linear storms with strong winds, fre-
quent lightning strikes and occasionally hail storms which are common throughout the
country in the pre-monsoon season: the study by Yamane et al. [16] to which the authors
refer includes both nor’-westers and tornadoes in its description of ‘severe local convective
storms’. Perhaps indicating their rarity in Bangladesh and West Bengal, there is no specific
Bengali word for tornado: the term gurni jhar is used for both tornado and cyclone; and
both English and Bengali language newspapers in Bangladesh refer to them as tornadoes.
Tornadoes can form within kal baishakhi, but they are so infrequent and affect such a
relatively small area, that the risk of any particular house or settlement being hit by a tor-
nado is almost infinitely small.3 It is not for protection against tornadoes, as Rahman and
Rahman assert, that rural families grow bamboos and trees around their houses. It is
against the strong winds in kal baishakhi, which occur virtually every year – in most
years, there is more than one during the pre-monsoon season − and which extend over
great areas.
872 H. Brammer

5. Drought

Miyan [17] and some of the authors he quotes include Bangladesh’s natural dry season in
their analysis and description of drought. That is inappropriate. Drought is an abnormal
condition. It occurs when there is insufficient rainfall for satisfactory plant growth at a
time of the year when there normally is sufficient rainfall to provide soil moisture for plant
growth (and/or, in some regions, to recharge the groundwater-table and/or maintain river
flow).
Droughts restricting satisfactory crop growth in Bangladesh can occur in the pre-monsoon,
monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Their frequency in different parts of the country was
analysed in detail in an agroecological zones study carried out in the 1980s (FAO [18]),
summarised in Brammer [19]. Table 3 shows the begin dates and end dates of the pre-kharif
(= pre-monsoon) and kharif (= monsoon) growing seasons as determined in that study,
together with standard deviation ranges.

• The pre-kharif season was defined as the period when soil moisture derived from
rainfall is intermittently above and below 0.5 potential evapotranspiration (PET),
considered to be the threshold value for reliable germination and early growth of
broadcast-sown crops at the beginning of the rainy season. Pre-kharif zone p1 lies in
the wettest north-east corner of Bangladesh and zone p6 in the driest area near the
country’s south-western border. The day following the end-date of the pre-kharif
season is the begin-date of the kharif season.

Table 3. Mean begin and end dates of the pre-kharif (p) and kharif (K) growing periods by zone.

Begin date End date

Zone Mean St. Dev (days) Mean St. Dev (days)

Pre-kharif
p1 17 March 5 2 April 10
p2 20 March 5 14 April 10
p3 22 March 5 26 April 10
p4 24 March 5 8 May 10
p5 24 March 5 18May 10
p6 27 March 5 21 May 10
Kharif
K1 27 May 20–30 18.November 20–25
K2 24 May 20–30 24 November 20–25
K3 21 May 10–30 2 December 20–35
K4 16 May 10–30 9 December 20–35
K5 9 May 10–30 10 December 20–35
K6 3 May 10–30 14 December 20–35
K7 27 April 10–30 18 December 20–35
K8 24 April 10–20 25 December 20–35
K9 18 April 10–20 29 December 20–35
K10 12 April 10–20 2 January 20–35
K11 3 April 10–20 3 January 20–30
K12 27 March 10–20 6 January 20–30

Source: FAO, 1988 [18].

 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 873

• The kharif season was defined as the period when moisture derived from rainfall
(plus an assumed 100 mm of soil moisture storage) is continuously higher than 0.5
PET. Kharif zone K1 lies in the extreme west (where the mean annual rainfall is
<1250 mm) and zone K12 lies in the extreme north-east corner of the country (where
the mean annual rainfall is >5000 mm).

The standard deviation figures in Table 3 show the great interannual variability in the
begin and end dates of the rainy season, with implications for drought in years when the
rains begin late or end early.
In the absence of daily rainfall data on which to determine relevant p and K data,
monthly rainfall data were analysed for the pre-monsoon months April and May (when
adequate rainfall is important for the direct-seeded early kharif crops aus and deepwater
aman rice, and jute) and the post-monsoon months October and November (when adequate
rainfall is important for the maturing transplanted aman rice crop) to determine if there
was any change over the past 50 years in the frequency of years with less than half the
average monthly rainfall. Table 4 shows such data for four meteorological stations:
Rajshahi in the dry west of the country; Dhaka in the centre; Sylhet in the wet north-east;
and Chittagong on the coast. As can be seen in Table 4, these data provide no evidence of
increasing drought frequency in these critical periods in the past 50 years. Note that the
frequency of years with below-average rainfall is greatest in November when the mean
rainfall is low anyway; at all four stations, there are several years per decad (=10-year
period) with zero rainfall.
Observed and potential drought-mitigation measures in Bangladesh were reviewed in
Brammer [3]. Drought is now a much less serious problem for agriculture in Bangladesh
than it was up to about 30 years ago. Forty-five per cent of Bangladesh’s cropped area
was irrigated in 2011–2012 (the latest data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics), with 54−73% irrigated in the country’s three driest Districts (Rajshahi, Kushtia
and Jessore) in the centre-west. National rice production increased from 11.87 Mt in
1981–1982 to 33.89 Mt in 2011–2012. Annual rice production in the three driest Districts
increased in that period from 0.64 to 2.94 Mt in Rajshahi, from 0.18 to 0.97 Mt in Kushtia
and from 0.45 to 2.33 Mt in Jessore. These data do not suggest an increasing impact of
drought on agriculture.
Miyan [17] refers incorrectly to groundwater depletion and arsenic contamination in the
Barind Tract (occupying parts of Dinajpur, Rangpur, Bogra and Rajshahi Districts in
north-western Bangladesh) from over-exploitation by irrigation. Lowering of the water-
table by irrigation is not (or need not be) a serious problem over the greater part of this
region − it is specifically a problem in the so-called High Barind in the south-west of the
region − and arsenic contamination of groundwater does not affect the Barind Tract, which
is an uplifted block (Brammer [7]); arsenic contamination is confined to Bangladesh’s
floodplain areas (Brammer and Ravenscroft [20]). Lowering of the groundwater-table is a
serious problem in Dhaka city, and potentially so in some of Bangladesh’s other urban
areas; but it need not be a serious problem for sustainable irrigation over the greater part
of Bangladesh. Farmers’ present methods of flood-irrigating rice are highly wasteful. More
economical techniques are known, such as Alternate Wetting and Drying being promoted
by the International Rice Research Institute and the System of Rice Intensification in
which rice is grown as a dryland crop. These methods deserve stronger government pro-
motion not only for their economic benefits; they could also greatly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and reduce arsenic contamination of soils and rice (Kassam and Brammer [21]).
 874

Table 4. Frequency of rainfall totals <150 mm in May, June and October at selected stations by decad 1959–2014.

May June October

Station Period 0–49 mm 50–99 mm 100–149 mm Total years 0–49 mm 50–99 mm 100–149 mm Total years 0–49 mm 50–99 mm 100–149 mm Total mm

Rajshahi 1964–1968 0 3 2 5 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 4
1969–1978 0 2 3 5 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 5
1979–1988 2 2 3 7 1 1 0 2 4 1 1 6
1989–1998 0 4 2 6 0 1 0 1 2 2 3 7
1999–2008 0 2 3 5 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 5
2009–2014 1 1 1 (3) 0 1 1 (1) 3 1 1 (5)
Dhaka 1959–1968 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 5
1969–1978 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 6
1979–1988 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 6
1989–1998 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 3 1 5
1999–2008 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3
2009–2014 0 0 1 (1) 0 0 0 (0) 4 2 0 (6)
Sylhet 1959–1968 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 6
1969–1978 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
H. Brammer

1979–1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 4
1989–1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4
1999–2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3
2009–2014 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 0 (0) 1 1 1 (3)
Chittagong 1959–1968 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
1969–1978 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 4
1979–1988 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 6
1989–1998 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 4 5
1999–2008 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
2009–2014 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 0 (0) 1 0 1 (2)

Notes: (1) The numbers in the columns indicate the number of years in the decad when rainfall was within the range shown in the column heading.
(2) No data for Rajshahi 1959–1963, 1972 and 1992.
(3) Note that data for 2009–2014 are for six, not ten years.
(4) Mean rainfall and (standard deviation) mm: Rajshahi: May 137 (68); June 273 (124); October 124 (82). Dhaka: May 293 (140); June 367 (154); October 182 (120).
Sylhet: May 551 (213); June 807 (237); October 212 (140). Chittagong : May 275 (165); 594 (237); October 206 (133).
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 875

6. Climate change

It was the common attribution of natural disasters such as floods, drought and even river-
bank erosion in Bangladesh to climate change that led the author to analyse 50 years of
daily maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly rainfall data for the country’s 31
main meteorological stations (Brammer [5]). Those analyses did not provide conclusive
evidence that climate change related to global warming had occurred to-date in
Bangladesh: (see below). That finding should not, perhaps, be surprising. If average global
temperatures have increased by ca 1.0 °C since pre-industrial times but temperatures in the
Arctic have increased by ca 4 °C during that time, then temperatures in latitudes nearer the
Equator have presumably increased by less than the global average.

6.1. Rainfall
Figure 2 shows the great interannual variability of annual rainfall at Kolkata (formerly
Calcutta) over a period of 186 years; (Kolkata lies approximately 65 km west of
Bangladesh’s south-western border). The 10-year running mean line for rainfall in this
figure shows no correlation between annual rainfall and the increasing global temperatures
since near the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the early nineteenth century.
The analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall data for stations in Bangladesh showed no
consistent evidence for either increased annual rainfall or increased rainfall variability since
global warming resumed ca 1979 as predicted by models [5]. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate
annual rainfall data for Rajshahi, Dhaka, Sylhet and Chittagong. Figure 3 shows that the
years with very high or very low rainfall did not always coincide between the four stations
and that annual rainfall has not increased since 1979. Similarly, figure 4 shows that there
was no increase in variability (as shown by the difference between highest and lowest
rainfall within pentads): annual rainfall was highly variable throughout the period of
analysis (as figure 2 shows that it also was at Kolkata over a much longer period).

6.2. Temperatures
Interpretation of temperature data for evidence of climate change in Bangladesh is made
difficult by the fact that most of the country’s meteorological stations are in urban areas
where temperatures may have been increased by a growing ‘heat island effect’ as cities
and towns have expanded and acquired more masonry buildings, tarmac roads and motor
traffic during recent decades, and have done so at different rates. The widespread substitu-
tion of irrigated boro paddy cultivation for dryland crops or fallow in the dry season in
the past 30 years, reported in Section 2 and illustrated for the North-west region in Table 5,
can also have affected both maximum and minimum temperatures in the dry season,
decreasing day temperatures and increasing night temperatures.
Table 6 shows that the number of days with maximum temperatures >40 °C decreased
at four western stations during the past 55 years. Such temperatures, which can adversely
affect pollination of rice, only occur in Bangladesh’s western Districts, so the numbers of
days with temperatures >35 °C were also counted for all stations in order to examine
national maximum temperature trends. Figure 5 illustrates trends for such temperatures at
Rajshahi, Dhaka, Sylhet and Chittagong. Figure 6 shows trends for the number of days
per annum with minimum temperatures <15 °C (also of agricultural relevance). The
876 H. Brammer

Figure 2. Comparison of annual rainfall at Calcutta with global carbon-dioxide and temperature trends and with
el Niño/la Niña events.
Source: 1830–1949 based on data derived from Couper-Johnston [22]. 1950–2008 based on data from http://
ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm. See notes in text.
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 877

Rajshahi mm Dhaka
4000

3500

3000

2500
M
2000
M
1500

1000

500

XXX X 0 X XXXX
1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13

1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13
M
X = No or incomplete data = 10-year running mean = Short period mean

Sylhet mm Chittagong
6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

X X XX X X 0 X X XX X X
1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13

1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13

Figure 3. Annual rainfall at Rajshahi, Dhaka, Sylhet and Chittagong 1964–2013 with 10-year running means.

vertical dashed line in these figures marks the division between the pre-1979 period when,
as is shown in figure 2, global temperatures were at a still-stand and the following period
when global temperatures resumed increasing.
Figure 5 illustrates both the great variability at individual stations and the substantial
differences in the occurrence of high maximum temperatures between stations in different
878 H. Brammer

Rajshahi mm Dhaka
4000

3000

2000

1000

No of
years
0 5 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 0 5 4 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
1959-63

1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14

1959-63

1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14
1984-88

1984-88
Highest in period Period mean Lowest in period.
Sylhet mm Chittagong
6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

No of
years
4 4 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 0 5 4 2 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6
2009-14
1959-63

1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

1959-63

1964-68

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14
1984-88

1984-88

Figure 4. Maximum, mean and minimum annual rainfall at Rajshahi, Dhaka, Sylhet and Chittagong 1959–2014
by pentad.

regions of the country. The variations between stations and the lack of uniformity in trends
illustrated in figures 5 and 6 suggest that temperature changes have been influenced more
by local environmental factors than by global warming: whereas Dhaka and Sylhet are in
interior urban sites, Rajshahi adjoins the broad Ganges river and Chittagong is on the
coast. The figures provide no consistent evidence that variability has increased over time.
The lack of evidence for increased temperatures directly linked to 1 °C global warming
is supported by the information on mean annual temperatures presented in figure 7 for two
stations in non-urban environments (Mymensingh and Srimangal) which show increases of
only 0.1 and 0.2 °C respectively in the continuous period of records.4 For comparison,
figure 7 also includes data for two stations in urban areas (Dhaka and Sylhet) which show
much greater temperature increases since 1964 (although not since the mid-1980s at
Dhaka).
 Table 5. Expansion of the boro paddy area in the North-west region 1960−2010.

1960 1969–1970 1979–1980 1989–1990 1999–2000 2009–2010

Area of Boro % of Boro % of Boro % of Boro % of Boro % of Boro % of
District District ha area ha District area ha District area ha District area ha District area ha District area ha District

Dinajpur 665,318 235 <1 2831 <1 7080 1.1 63,015 9.5 199,810 30.0 286,916 39.8
Rangpur 961,959 460 <1 13,181 1.4 32,096 3.3 174,379 18.1 324,189 33.7 464,190 45.7
Bogra 388,507 518 <1 12,270 3.2 23,248 6.0 170,182 43.8 236,123 60.8 258,367 66.5
Pabna 486,038 1,53 <1 8535 1.8 14,913 3.1 98,430 20.25 146,439 30.1 202,831 41.2
Rajshahi 944,152 16,183 1.7 36,568 3.9 38,691 4.1 172,760 18.3 324,189 34.3 372,370 40.4
NW region
3,445,974 18,929 <1 73,385 2.1 116,028 3.4 678,766 19.7 1230,674 35.7 1544,515 41.9

Notes: 1. Boro paddy includes all varieties (local + HYV + hybrid).

2. Data for 1960 from 1960 Agricultural Census of East Pakistan. Data for other years from respective Bangladesh Yearbooks of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka.
Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh
879
880 H. Brammer

Table 6. Mean number of days per annum with maximum temperatures >40 °C at four western stations
1959–2013 by pentad.

Rangpur Bogra Rajshahi Jessore

No. of Mean No. No. of Mean No. No. of Mean No. No. of Mean No.
Pentad years of days years of days years of days years of days

1959–63 5 2.6 5 9.6 0 – 5 6.8

1964–68 5 1.4 3 3.7 5 11.4 3 0
1969–73 2 4.8 4 7.5 2 20.0 4 6.8
1974–78 1 0 4 1.8 5 3.0 4 2.3
1979–83 4 0 5 4.8 4 10.0 5 3.0
1984–88 5 0 5 0.2 5 9.0 5 1.4
1989–93 5 0 5 1.2 5 6.6 5 2.0
1994–98 5 0.2 5 0.8 5 6.8 5 2.2
1999–03 5 0 5 0.8 5 1.6 5 1.0
2004–08 5 0 5 0.4 5 2.4 5 1.6
2009–13 5 0 4 0 5 4.0 5 3.8

Rajshahi Days Dhaka

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14

1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

Highest in pentad Pentad mean Lowest in pentad X = No data 2009-14

Sylhet Days Chittagong
40
30
20
10
0 X
1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14

1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14

Figure 5. Maximum, mean and minimum number of days per annum with maximum temperatures >35 °C at
Rajshahi, Dhaka, Sylhet and Chittagong 1964–2013 by pentad.

The sudden upward changes at Dhaka in 1984 and at Sylhet in 1994 apparently fol-
lowed changes of the station sites, so they are not necessarily linked to global temperature
changes. The sites of several other meteorological station sites were changed in the past
50 years, a factor that has apparently not been considered in previous interpretations of
temperature data for measuring supposed climate change in Bangladesh: e.g. by Islam and
Neelim [23] and Mondal, Islam and Madhu [24].5
The observations made above do not mean that global warming has not affected temper-
atures in Bangladesh to-date or that it will not do so in future. They merely mean that it is
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 881

Rajshahi Days Dhaka

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
X 0
1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14

1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14
Highest in pentad Pentad mean Lowest in pentad X = No data

Sylhet Days Chittagong

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 X
1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14

1964-68

1968-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-14
Figure 6. Maximum, mean and minimum number of days per annum with minimum temperatures <15 °C at
Rajshahi, Dhaka, Sylhet and Chittagong 1964–2013 by pentad.

impossible at present to determine by how much – if at all − temperatures have changed

to-date through global warming because of the variable effects of local environmental
changes such as urban warming, widespread changes in land use and the shifting of some
meteorological station sites.6

6.3. Links with el Niño/la Niña

No consistent links were found between the numbers of days with temperatures >35 °C
and <15 °C and el Niño or la Niña events reported between 1959 and 2008 (Brammer
[5]). Analysis of data for 36 stations showed that annual rainfall was below average in
56% of the years with strong or moderate el Niño events and was above average in 69%
of the years with strong or moderate la Niña events. But these data have little predictive
value because of inconsistencies between el Niño/la Niña events and rainfall at different
stations: for example, in the 1989–1998 decad, rainfall at Rajshahi was respectively 18
and 374 mm below average in two el Niño occurrences but 546 mm above average in
another occurrence; and whereas Rajshahi had below-average rainfall in eight out of nine
years with strong or moderate el Niño events between 1964 and 2008, rainfall at Dhaka
was below average in only four out of eight years.
882 H. Brammer

Mymensingh °C Srimangal
26.0

25.5

25.0

24.5

X X X 24.0 X X
1964-68

1964-68
1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13
Highest in pentad Pentad mean Lowest in pentad X = No or incomplete data
Dhaka °C Sylhet
27.0

26.5

26.0

25.5

25.0

24.5

24.0
1964-68

1964-68
1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13

1969-73

1974-78

1979-83

1984-88

1989-93

1994-98

1999-03

2004-08

2009-13
Figure 7. Maximum, average and minimum mean annual temperatures at Mymensingh, Srimangal, Dhaka and
Sylhet 1964–2013.

7. Sea-level rise

It is widely assumed, inside and outside Bangladesh, that the country is a flat alluvial plain
which a rising sea-level will overwhelm contour by contour, displacing as many as
10−30 million people in the twenty-first century: e.g. Gore [25]. That is too simplistic a
picture. The reality is that the southern part of Bangladesh comprises a diversity of natural
environments which have been modified to varying extents by human interventions
(Brammer [26]). These environments will be affected in different ways by sea-level rise
and will require different counter-measures.

• The Ganges Tidal Floodplain in the south-west has both saline and non-saline subre-
gions, and it includes the Sunderbans mangrove forest. Large areas have been
embanked, creating polders to safeguard rice production from tidal flooding.
• The Young Meghna Estuarine Floodplain in the Meghna estuary is subject to erosion
by shifting river channels and the creation of new land by sedimentation, with a net
annual land gain of ca 20 km2 in recent decades.
• The Chittagong Coastal Plains in the south-east is a complex region of piedmont,
river and tidal floodplains and off-shore islands that have been partly embanked
against tidal and river flooding.
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 883

All these regions are exposed to tropical cyclones and accompanying storm surges.
Adjoining regions inland include older river and estuarine floodplains which have been
partly embanked, together with large, low-lying, peat basins in the south-west. These dif-
ferent environments will need area-specific measures in order to counter adverse impacts
of sea-level rise.
There has been much criticism by social scientists of official and unofficial develop-
ments in some parts of the coastal area, particularly of embankment building and of
shrimp farming: e.g. Rahman and Rahman [14]; Paprocki and Cons [27]. Certainly, human
interventions have greatly changed the natural environment, and serious environmental and
social problems have arisen in some parts of the Coastal Embankment Project area: e.g.
siltation of rivers blocking drainage from enclosed land (polders) in part of the moribund
Ganges delta in western Khulna District7; and reduced employment opportunities where
shrimp cultivation has replaced rice cultivation. But the great benefits of the Coastal
Embankment Project should not be ignored.
Rice production in the three south-western Districts (Barisal, Patuakhali, Khulna)
increased from 1.05 Mt in 1971–1972 to 2.68 Mt in 2010–2011, and with it the population
increased from 8.9 million in 1974 to 14.1 million in 2011. Production of shrimps in the
coastal zone also increased from near-zero in 1970–1971 to >3 Mt in 2010–2011, and
shrimps now provide the country’s third-largest source of foreign exchange income. Those
developments would not have been possible without the measures introduced to manage
tidal flooding that had severely limited crop production under natural conditions. The
embankments were provided in order to protect land from normal tidal flooding. They
were not designed to keep out storm surges: with surges reaching 3 m or more high
(Table 2), that was considered unpractical.
It is true that several technical and institutional problems arose that were not foreseen
when the Coastal Embankment Project was planned in the 1950s – particularly land subsi-
dence in some parts of the area (Brammer [26]), and siltation of channels blocking drai-
nage from polders in the moribund Ganges delta − and those problems were aggravated
by the inadequate provision of government funds for the operation and maintenance of
project structures. The substitution of shrimp farming for rice production undoubtedly also
created serious social problems by displacing tenant farmers and seasonal agricultural
labourers; and the unofficial sluices created in order to let river water onto shrimp farms
also weakened some embankments, causing them to be damaged by storm surges. But
shrimp farming is a rational form of economic production for remote parts of the coastal
zone: it provides a higher income per hectare for land-owners than rice production; and,
with its low labour requirement, it means that fewer people need to live in remote areas
exposed to cyclones and storm surges, and where it has proved difficult to provide basic
government and commercial services. The need is not to prevent economic change but
for government to plan and promote alternative livelihoods for economically-displaced
persons – preferably in less hazardous locations − and to ensure maintenance and rapid
repair of project structures.
Finally, it needs to be recognised that Bangladesh is not helpless against the predicted
rise in global sea-level during the twenty-first century, as is widely assumed. Measures to
enable periodic tidal flooding of polders need to be tested and developed that will enable
sediments to raise land levels as tidal river levels rise and as land subsides (Brammer [26];
Auerbach et al. [28]). Where this process might be unpractical or inadequate, pump
drainage could be provided (as in The Netherlands and the English Fens where large areas
are several metres below sea-level). Institutional measures need to be taken and funded to
884 H. Brammer

provide and maintain adequate numbers of cyclone shelters as population increases; to

maintain embankments and sluices efficiently; to enable the speedy repair of embankments
and other structures after damage by storm surges; and to encourage and enable people to
find livelihoods outside remote disaster-prone areas. The Bangladesh Delta Plan is tackling
the technical and institutional problems experienced in the coastal zone [29].

8. Conclusions and recommendations

The findings reported above that climate change in Bangladesh has been much less than
has been generally assumed have important implications for national planning. The focus
of the Bangladesh government, aid donors and NGOs in recent years on climate change
impacts and needs has distracted attention from two more serious immediate problems fac-
ing Bangladesh: population increase and rapid urbanisation. Bangladesh’s population is
now ca 160 million and is growing at ca 2 million a year, meaning that it could reach
200 million within 20–25 years. That will require a 25% increase in combined food pro-
duction plus import and the need to generate a corresponding increase in employment
opportunities in-country and abroad. The demands that this rate of population growth
impose on food production, employment generation and urban development are likely to
be much greater than those that might be imposed by climate change during the next
20 years: a mean temperature increase of perhaps 0.1 °C, and sea-level rise of ca 60 mm.
Plans for feeding, employing and housing the additional population deserve priority focus.
Since most of the country’s meteorological stations are in urban areas subject to a heat
island effect, it is desirable for government to site more meteorological stations in rural
areas, such as on agricultural research stations and seed multiplication farms, where
changes related to global warming are likely to be recognised with greater certainty. Addi-
tionally, academic studies could usefully be made to observe temperature differences at dif-
ferent sites within urban areas and within different crops or crop rotations on agricultural
research stations in order to gain a better understanding of the environmental factors that
influence temperatures. Similarly, a study could usefully be made at meteorological stations
in river-bank towns such as Rajshahi to see if, using satellite images available since 1974,
relationships can be found between maximum, minimum and mean annual temperatures in
years when the sites were adjoined by water and those when they were adjoined by bare
alluvium.
The prevalent errors and misunderstandings about Bangladesh’s physical environments
and climate reviewed in earlier sections indicate an urgent need for changes to be made in
the country’s education system. There is a particular need to make changes in the teaching
of geography and related environmental subjects in the country’s academic institutions,
substituting field studies for ‘paper’ studies so that students, at all levels, obtain a practical
knowledge and understanding of the physical, economic and social geography of their
country. That would enable them to replace popular assumptions and assertions with
fact-based information and understanding.
For example, students could learn much about environmental interrelationships by
making a traverse between the highest and lowest land in a floodplain village, examining
the differences in land types and soils within the village, and discussing with farmers how
the different environments influence their choice of crops and cropping patterns together
with the relative susceptibility of the different micro-environments to drought and floods.
Repeated in different physiographic regions, such studies could extend students’ (and
 Floods, cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh 885

teachers’) knowledge of different environments and their influence on land use and
exposure to natural disasters. The classical study by Bari [30] relating farmers’ cropping
decisions to local physical, social and economic factors – the studied farmer used 61
different crop rotations on the 17 scattered plots on his 1-ha farm-holding over a 5-year
period − could usefully be carried out by students throughout the country.
Repeated year after year by successive generations of students, such studies could build
up valuable knowledge on how farmers in different environments respond to varying
weather, hydrological, economic and social factors, as well as to changing technology and
institutional support, information of use not only for teachers and students but also of
value to national planners and of interest to the general public. Related to climate change,
students could usefully analyse the country’s meteorological data in order to measure cli-
mate parameters, using statistical methods appropriate for their age. Like other physical
and environmental sciences, geography is much better learnt from practical exercises and
experience than by merely reading about it.

Acknowledgement
The author is grateful to Dr Robert Brinkman for constructive comments on an earlier draft of this paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes
1. The soil surveys referred to above showed that the Ganges and Brahmaputra Floodplains were not formed
directly by those rivers but by smaller tributary and distributary rivers of the two major rivers. That is shown
by the size and shape of the meander scars and ox-bow lakes on the floodplains. Although classified as
meander floodplains, they are the meander floodplains only of the small rivers that cross them. The flood-
plains as a whole are the deltaic floodplains of the two major rivers.
2. The storm-surge height reported in some of the earlier cyclone occurrences included in Table 2 probably
includes the maximum height of accompanying waves hitting the coast, not just the sustained height of the
surge.
3. During 28 years in East Pakistan/Bangladesh, the author witnessed two megatornadoes − up to ca 1 km in
diameter − which affected areas immediately east of Dhaka in 1963 and 1976, causing several thousand casu-
alties, but he never witnessed an ordinary tornado, despite frequent travels about the country on field surveys
and inspection visits during the pre-monsoon season, and he only once saw damage to a village caused by a
tornado. He experienced many kal baishakhi, both in Dhaka and in the field, three with hail stones golf ball
to small orange in size which killed cattle, damaged crops, broke windows and dented cars.
4. The Mymensingh meteorological station was moved from the town centre to the Bangladesh Agricultural
University campus outside the town in the 1970s. The Sribardi site was moved several kilometres from a
former airfield on the plains to the Bangladesh Tea Research Station on adjoining low hills during the same
period. The linking of temperature data before and after these moves is invalid, therefore.
5. The author was unable to obtain information on changes in station sites. He knows from his own experience
that five station sites were changed in the past 50 years, but he does not have the dates; and step changes in
temperatures following breaks in the record suggest that at least another five station sites were changed.
6. Islam and Neelim [23] acknowledge that city areas can be 1−20C warmer than adjoining rural areas, but they
did not take this factor into account in their data analyses and interpretation; nor did they consider the
possible impact on temperatures of land use changes or of site changes at some meteorological stations. Mon-
dal, Islam and Madhu [24], in a 50-year analysis of Bangladesh’s mean annual temperatures, found a 2.4 °C
per century rate of increase in mean temperature 1980–2010 that was twice that of the long-term trend
(1948–2010) and projected this trend to increase in future to 4.6 °C per century, but they did not take urban
warming and site shifts into account in their analysis.
886 H. Brammer

7. The moribund Ganges delta comprises the area in the south-west of Bangladesh and in West Bengal where
Ganges river distributaries are no longer connected with that river or a major distributary in the dry season.
In this area, river salinity moves much further inland in the dry season than it does in central and eastern
parts of the Ganges Tidal Floodplain where there is sufficient dry-season river flow to hold back saline intru-
sion to a narrow belt near the coast: see Brammer [25], figure 5.

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