CMP: 742.

10 NOV 14th, 2019

THE PHOENIX MILLS LTD ISIN:
Result Update (CONSOLIDATED BASIS): Q2 FY20 Overweight
INE211B01039
Index Details SYNOPSIS
Stock Data The Phoenix Mills Ltd is a leading retail mall
Sector Realty developer and operator in India.
BSE Code 503100
During the quarter, consolidated revenue stood at
Face Value 2.00
Rs. 4150.67 mn from Rs. 4047.37 mn in the
52wk. High / Low (Rs.) 766.00/549.40 corresponding quarter ending of previous year,
Volume (2wk. Avg.) 16000 increased by 2.55% on YoY basis.
Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) 113799.92
During the quarter, consolidated EBIDTA increased
Annual Estimated Results(A*: Actual / E*: Estimated) by 6.36% to Rs. 2302.18 mn from Rs. 2164.53 mn
Years(Rs in mn) FY19A FY20E FY21E in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Net Sales 19815.61 21400.85 23540.94 During Q2 FY20, consolidated PBT up by 34.04%
EBITDA 10782.74 11509.43 12543.78 to Rs. 992.77 mn from Rs. 740.67 mn in Q2 FY19.
Net Profit 4210.18 4521.73 5175.67 During Q2 FY20, consolidated Net profit stood at
EPS 27.47 29.49 33.75 Rs. 657.99 mn as compared to Rs. 620.47 mn in Q2
P/E 27.02 25.17 21.99 FY19, grew by 6.05%.

Shareholding Pattern (%) EPS of the company stood at Rs. 4.29 a share during
the quarter, as against Rs. 4.05 per share over
As on Sep 2019 As on Jun 2019 previous year period.

Promoter 59.16 62.75 Retail aggregate consumption at its 8 malls across 6

cities was Rs. 34,762 million, up 3% y-o-y in H1
Public 40.84 37.25 FY2020.
Others - - Commercial income was at Rs. 514 million, up 66%
y-o-y in H1.
1 Year Comparative Graph
In H1 FY20, consolidated revenue stood at Rs.
10301.10 mn as against Rs. 8179.01 mn in H1
FY19.
During H1 FY20, consolidated Net Profit of Rs.
1961.86 mn from Rs. 1217.76 mn in H1 FY19, up
by 61.10%.
Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to
grow at a CAGR of 7% and 30% over 2018 to
THE PHOENIX MILLS LTD S&P BSE SENSEX 2021E, respectively.

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS(TTM) P/E (X)(TTM) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND
Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)
The Phoenix Mills Ltd 742.10 113799.92 32.31 22.97 3.27 150.00
Sobha Limited 427.50 405466.00 35.27 12.12 1.95 70.00
Omaxe Ltd 184.65 33772.60 1.43 129.27 2.47 7.00
Godrej Properties Ltd 951.00 239674.20 13.54 69.94 9.00 0.00

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QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (CONSOLIDATED BASIS)

Results updates- Q2 FY20,

(Rs in mn) Sep-19 Sep-18 % Change

Revenue 4150.67 4047.37 2.55%

Net Profit 657.99 620.47 6.05%

EPS 4.29 4.05 5.94%

EBIDTA 2302.18 2164.53 6.36%

During the quarter, consolidated revenue stood at Rs. 4150.67 million from Rs. 4047.37 million in the corresponding
quarter ending of previous year, increased by 2.55% on YoY basis. During Q2 FY20, Net profit stood at Rs.657.99
million as compared to Rs. 620.47 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, grew by 6.05%. Reported
earnings per share of the company stood at Rs. 4.29 a share during the quarter, as against Rs. 4.05 per share over previous
year period. During the quarter, Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 2302.18 million as against Rs. 2164.53
million in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Break up of Expenditure

Value in Rs. Million

Break up of
Expenditure
%
Q2 FY20 Q2 FY19
Change
Cost of Materials
229.44 585.49 -61%
Consumed
Employee Benefit
398.42 396.51 0%
Expenses
Depreciation &
509.36 506.41 1%
Amortization Expenses

Others Expenses 1101.94 1048.19 5%

Electricity Expenses 423.56 394.36 7%

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Segment Revenue

Retail – contributed 59% to H1 FY2020 consolidated revenu

 Aggregate consumption at its 8 malls across 6 cities was Rs. 34,762 million, up 3% y-o-y in H1 FY2020.

 Consumption was driven by strong performances at Phoenix Marketcity Mumbai (consumption up 9% y-o-y to Rs.
4,967 million), Phoenix Marketcity Pune (consumption up 8% y-o-y to Rs. 6,475 million) and Phoenix Marketcity
Bengaluru (consumption up 5% y-o-y to Rs. 6,570 million).

 Aggregate retail rental income was up 7% at Rs. 5,190 million and retail EBITDA was up 8% yo-y at Rs. 5,023
million.

Commercial – contributed 5% to H1 FY2020 consolidated revenue

 Commercial income was at Rs. 514 million, up 66% y-o-y in H1 driven by higher occupancy and improved rental
yields at Art Guild House and Phoenix Paragon Plaza and contribution from Fountainhead Tower 1.

 Art Guild House, Mumbai, one of its premier commercial properties, had an occupancy of 91% at the end of
September 2019 and generated rental income of Rs. 304 million in H1.

 Fountainhead Tower 1, newest commercial asset in Pune, had an occupancy at 94% at the end of September 2019 and
generated a rental income of Rs. 65 million.

Hospitality and others – contributed 15% to H1 FY2020 consolidated revenue

The St. Regis, Mumbai

 Total Income was at Rs. 1,373 million, up 3% y-o-y and room occupancy stood at 79% in H1.

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 Average room rentals (ARR) was at Rs. 10,959 in H1.

Courtyard by Marriot, Agra

 Total Income was at Rs. 141 million, up 14% y-o-y in H1 largely led by improvement in occupancy.

 Room occupancy stood at 62% in H1, up from 53% in the corresponding period last year.

Residential – contributed 21% to H1 FY2020 consolidated revenue

 Residential revenue was at Rs. 2,183 million in H1, led by higher sales recognition at One Bangalore West & Kessaku
in Q1 FY20.

 Revenue recognition of Rs. 112 mn from Kessaku this quarter.

 The company has launched Tower 7 at One Bangalore West in July 2019 and have sold 13 units so far.

COMPANY PROFILE

The Phoenix Mills Limited (PML) is a leading retail mall developer and operator in India and is the pioneer of retail-led,
mixed-use developments in India with completed development of over 17.5 million square feet spread across retail,
hospitality, commercial, and residential asset classes. The company has an operational retail portfolio of approximately
6.0 million square feet of retail space spread across 8 operational malls in 6 gateway cities of India. The company is
further developing 5 malls with over 4.9 million sq. feet of retail space in 5 gateway cities of India. Besides retail, the
company has an operating commercial office portfolio with gross leasable area of 1.32 million sq. feet and plans to add
approximately 4.0 million sq. feet of commercial office across existing retail properties going forward.

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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (CONSOLIDATED BASIS) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)
Balance Sheet as of March 31, 2018 -2021E
. FY-18A FY-19A FY-20E FY-21E
ASSETS
Non-Current Assets
a) Property, plant and equipment 52939.31 61488.51 63487.91 66662.31
b) Capital Work in Progress 5025.07 8960.39 11469.29 12616.22
c) Other Intangible Assets 25.24 24.93 24.18 24.66
d) Intangible Assets Under Development 0.03 2.16 2.46 2.68
e) Goodwill on consolidation 3710.70 3710.70 3784.91 3860.61
f) Financial Assets
i)Investments 4978.37 4722.06 4580.40 4717.81
ii) Loans 63.04 63.03 65.55 68.17
iii) Other Financial assets 943.28 1060.04 1187.25 1305.97
g) Deferred Tax Assets (Net) 1059.88 1389.81 1125.75 968.14
h) Other Non - Current Assets 1694.27 1630.16 1646.46 1679.39
1. Sub - Total Non- Current Assets 70439.18 83051.77 87374.15 91905.96
Current Assets
a) Inventories 6614.95 8986.49 8447.30 8700.72
b) Financial Assets
i) Investments 3311.67 2728.10 2209.76 2298.15
ii) Trade Receivables 1291.53 1955.24 1916.13 1992.78
iii) Cash and Bank Balances 308.30 395.82 451.23 505.38
iv) Bank Balances Other than Cash 97.85 1523.88 1371.49 1453.78
v) Loans 316.40 212.06 180.25 189.26
vi) Other Financial Assets 557.03 265.00 296.80 326.48
c) Current Tax Assets 928.08 929.16 1114.99 1282.24
d) Other current assets 1108.45 1111.53 1845.14 2029.66
2. Sub - Total Current Assets 14534.27 18107.28 17833.10 18778.45
Total Assets (1+2) 84973.45 101159.05 105207.25 110684.41
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
EQUITY
a) Equity Share Capital 306.28 306.58 306.70 306.70
b) Other Equity 28210.81 34434.60 37878.06 42196.16
c) Non-Controlling Interest 4661.04 12233.02 12600.01 13104.01
1.Total Equity 33178.13 46974.20 50784.77 55606.87
Liabilities
Non Current Liabilities
a) Financial Liabilities
i) Borrowings 31971.92 34319.41 33633.03 32624.03
ii) Trade Payables 4.40 1.53 5.60 6.67
iii) Other Financial Liabilities 121.06 1607.41 2073.56 2426.06
b) Provisions 534.82 78.06 90.55 103.23
c) Deferred tax liabilities (Net) 1.81 3.32 0.00 0.00
d) Other Non Current Liabilities 2479.97 155.48 57.53 47.17
2.Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities 35113.97 36165.21 35860.26 35207.16
Current Liabilities
a) Financial Liabilities
i) Borrowings 2537.19 5490.95 6534.23 7252.99
ii) Trade payables 1094.47 1477.10 1004.43 1034.05
iii) Other Financial Liabilities 8847.74 6177.49 6671.68 7005.27
b) Other Current Liabilities 3692.20 4301.63 3699.40 3847.38
c) Provisions 508.45 551.88 651.22 729.37
d) Current Tax Liabilities 1.29 20.59 1.25 1.33
3. Sub Total Current Liabilities 16681.35 18019.63 18562.22 19870.38
Total Equity and Liabilities (1+2+3) 84973.45 101159.05 105207.25 110684.41

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Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2018 to 2021E

Value(Rs.in.mn) FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12m
Net Sales 16198.53 19815.61 21400.85 23540.94
Other Income 556.23 851.34 766.21 796.85
Total Income 16754.76 20666.94 22167.06 24337.79
Expenditure -8421.91 -9884.21 -10657.62 -11794.01
Operating Profit 8332.86 10782.74 11509.43 12543.78
Interest -3476.07 -3505.79 -3575.91 -3683.18
Gross profit 4856.79 7276.95 7933.53 8860.60
Depreciation -1982.82 -2042.32 -2103.59 -2208.77
Exceptional Items 0.00 480.99 77.66 0.00
Profit Before Tax 2873.97 5715.62 5907.60 6651.83
Tax -757.96 -1098.73 -1151.98 -1297.11
Profit after Tax 2116.01 4616.89 4755.62 5354.72
Minority interest -134.67 -759.78 -562.23 -517.26
Share of Profit/Loss from Joint Venture 442.30 353.07 328.35 338.20
Net Profit 2423.65 4210.18 4521.73 5175.67
Equity capital 306.28 306.58 306.70 306.70
Reserves 28210.81 34434.60 37878.06 42196.16
Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
EPS 15.83 27.47 29.49 33.75

Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31st Mar, 2019 to 31st Dec, 2019E
Value(Rs.in.mn) 31-Mar-19 30-Jun-19 30-Sep-19 31-Dec-19E
Description 3m 3m 3m 3m
Net sales 7232.30 6150.43 4150.67 4482.72
Other income 329.00 153.76 194.55 206.22
Total Income 7561.30 6304.19 4345.22 4688.95
Expenditure -3460.82 -3222.99 -2043.04 -2218.95
Operating profit 4100.48 3081.20 2302.18 2470.00
Interest -825.69 -871.24 -877.71 -939.15
Gross profit 3274.79 2209.97 1424.47 1530.85
Depreciation -513.97 -507.02 -509.36 -539.92
Exceptional Items 480.99 0.00 77.66 0.00
Profit Before Tax 3241.81 1702.95 992.77 990.93
Tax -509.94 -234.20 -350.15 -203.14
Profit after Tax 2731.88 1468.75 642.62 787.79
Minority interest -558.18 -233.32 -89.59 -85.11
Share of Profit/Loss from Joint Venture 110.41 68.43 104.95 99.71
Net Profit 2284.10 1303.87 657.99 802.39
Equity capital 306.58 306.68 306.70 306.70
Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
EPS 14.90 8.50 4.29 5.23
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Ratio Analysis

Particulars FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E

EPS (Rs.) 15.83 27.47 29.49 33.75
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.44% 54.42% 53.78% 53.28%
PBT Margin (%) 17.74% 28.84% 27.60% 28.26%
PAT Margin (%) 13.06% 23.30% 22.22% 22.75%
P/E Ratio (x) 46.89 27.02 25.17 21.99
ROE (%) 7.42% 13.29% 12.45% 12.60%
ROCE (%) 10.08% 11.72% 12.00% 12.55%
Debt Equity Ratio 1.21 1.15 1.05 0.94
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.33 13.81 13.03 11.91
Book Value (Rs.) 186.21 226.64 249.01 277.17
P/BV 3.99 3.27 2.98 2.68

Charts

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OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION

 At the current market price of Rs 742.10, the stock P/E ratio is at 25.17 x FY20E and 21.99 x FY21E respectively.

 Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY20E and FY21E is seen at Rs. 29.49 and Rs. 33.75
respectively.

 Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7% and 30% over 2018 to 2021E,
respectively.

 On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 13.03 x for FY20E and 11.91 x for FY21E.

 Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be 2.98 x and 2.68 x for FY20E and FY21E respectively.

 Hence, we say that, we are Overweight in this particular scrip for Medium to Long term investment.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
The Indian retail industry has arisen as one of the most dynamic and fast-paced industries due to the entry of several new
players. Total consumption expenditure is expected to reach nearly US$ 3,600 billion by 2020 from US$ 1,824 billion in
2017. It accounts for over 10% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and around 8% of the employment.

India is the world’s fifth-largest global destination in the retail space. India’s retail market is expected to increase by 60%
to reach US$ 1.1 trillion by 2020, on the back of factors like rising incomes; lifestyle changes by the middle class; and
increased digital connectivity.

It is projected that, by 2021, traditional retail will hold a major share of 75%, organised retail share will reach 18% and e-
commerce retail share will reach 7% of the total retail market. The long-term outlook for the industry is positive,
supported by rising incomes, favourable demographics, entry of foreign players, and increasing urbanisation.

Presently, the penetration of modern retail in India is low compared to that of developed and emerging economies.
However, consumer spending patterns and increasing disposable income levels in India continue to evolve at a faster
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speed. With a number of international brands entering the market, the dynamism has been amplified. Existing brands are
also working towards reinventing ways to keep up with the pace of growth in the sector. Nevertheless, there is a huge
untapped potential for the growth of modern retail in the top six retail markets in India namely, National Capital Region,
Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Pune, and Hyderabad.

Growth in Organised Retail

Strong macroeconomic factors coupled with robust demographics and Internet penetration will fuel the growth of the
retail market in India, which is third largest in Asia and fourth largest globally after USA, China and Japan. According to
a joint report by Deloitte and the Retailers Association of India (RAI), as Internet penetration increases in the country and
more international retailers start operating in India, the share of organised retail market would increase from about 12% in
2017 to about 22-25% by 2021.

Real Estate Sub-sectors

In 2018, the retail sector emerged as one of the most vibrant and fast-paced real estate sectors in India. The sector is now
projected to grow from US$672 billion in 2017 to US$1.3 trillion in 2020. As per industry estimates, the market size of
Tier II and Tier III cities is expected to grow from the current US$ 5.7 billion to US$ 80 billion by 2026. India’s Tier II
and Tier III cities are well-set to be the growth engines of the country’s retail future, and mall developers.

In 2018, the retail sector emerged as one of the most vibrant and fast-paced real estate sectors in India. The sector is now
projected to grow from US$672 billion in 2017 to US$1.3 trillion in 2020. As per industry estimates, the market size of
Tier II and Tier III cities is expected to grow from the current US$ 5.7 billion to US$ 80 billion by 2026. India’s Tier II
and Tier III cities are well-set to be the growth engines of the country’s retail future, and mall developers.

Commercial

Commercial real estate sector gained momentum during 2018 as the supply increased by 13% YoY to 36.9 million square
feet, the highest YoY increase in this decade. In addition to this, the BFSI sector observed the majority increase in
transactions’ share, driven by payment gateway companies taking up spaces — especially in Bangalore — while the
concept of co-working spaces is also gaining prominence in India.

Residential

The residential real estate market in India is beginning to stabilise as reflected by the recovery in the volume of
apartments launched in 2018, says a report titled ‘India Real Estate, July- December 2018’,by Knight Frank India. This
period of stabilisation, right-sizing and rightpricing of new residential product, including an improving homebuyer
sentiment due to increased transparency, have culminated in a 76% YoY growth in units launched during 2018 and a more
modest 6% YoY growth during the same period for sales.

Hospitality

The tourism and hospitality industry in India has evolved as one of the major key drivers of growth in the services sector.
The industry has a noteworthy potential in view of the rich cultural and historical heritage, variety in ecology, terrains,

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and places of natural beauty spread across the country. It is also a potentially large employment generator besides being a
significant source of foreign exchange for the country.

During the period April 2000-December 2018, the hotel and tourism sector attracted around US$ 12 billion of FDI,
according to the data released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT).

India’s rising middle class and increasing disposable incomes has continued to support the growth of domestic and
outbound tourism. Further, the tourism industry is looking forward to the expansion of the E-visa scheme, which is
expected to double the foreign tourist inflow to India.

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CoveredCoverage in the Current
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