Introduction: Fragility and Antifragility in the food industry

COVID-19 caused chaos on food systems, resulting in a series of serious problems. The rapidity with
which supply chain operators reorganized themselves in order to ensure food availability,
particularly in industrialised countries, is incredible. As COVID-19 levels grow, some delays may
continue, and new disruptions may occur. The need for an efficient and sustainable international
commerce environment has been underscored by the rapid responsiveness of food supply chains,
which allows enterprises to diversify into new sources of supply when current ones are eliminated.
Living creatures rarely rely on a single important organ, and disaggregated systems have been used
to organize agriculture and food supply for most of human history, and continue to be used
throughout significant portions of the world today. It's a bad idea to put all of your eggs in one
basket. Regrettably, the majority of official agriculture policy, investment, and agribusiness
management tend to oppose that philosophy, which has evolved through thousands of years of
experience.
Taleb presents a persuasive case that real-world behaviour should be based on academic theory, not
the other way around and messing with the experience of artisans, farmers, and people like his
colleague, who had over 30 years of practical experience is far more reliable than academic
understandings from people who had no risk or failed crops to face or in other words, no "skin in the
game".
Smallholder agriculture as a whole is robust or antifragile, notwithstanding the fragility of individual
smallholders. The information gained from all of its members' numerous mistakes, failures, and
achievements benefits the entire industry. What kills one in our small-scale farming community,
hopefully strengthens them and the others. There is a link between antifragility and flexibility.
Chinese masters (ming zhi – _literally "bright intellects") advise us to be more like the bamboo or
grass that bends in the wind rather than the blown-over oak tree. Even if the tree appears to be
strong under normal circumstances, it will not be able to withstand an uncommon (unexpected,
implausible) typhoon. Refine the metaphor: the tree is frail because it cannot take a strong push,
whereas the bamboo bends with the wind and springs back, making it resilient. The grass, on the
other hand, not only bends and survives, but also benefits from the soil and water brought by the
storm. This is how antifragile is defined.
According to Taleb, the greatest illusion of life is the attempt to eliminate uncertainty (randomness).
There's an obvious irony here, because commodity trading, particularly in the agriculture and food
industries, appears to be the goal of most of the systems we encounter, including one in which Taleb
worked as an options trader. However, as a hedge fund manager, he may be able to claim that he has
profited from uncertainty. However, it is less clear how this strategy pertains to our field. Isn't it true
that people in farming, particularly smallholders, are risk averse? And isn't it true that one of the first
rules of developing a food security policy is to foresee and remove risk? T Farmers and fishers, for
example, face daily volatility (uncertainty) since their earnings change with the price at the farm gate
and in the market, the weather, the season and the harvest. However, these stressors carry knowledge,
allowing the more intelligent to adapt and embrace new techniques. They are also open to positive
outcomes, such as subsidies to refurbish fishing boats or construct a vegetable packhouse as part of a
"humanitarian" or "development" project. All of this shows that small-scale farms are antifragile,
meaning they can profit to some extent from changes, including climate change, depending on their
exposure. A larger agribusiness, on the other hand, pays experienced risk managers to predict and
manage risk. Shareholders prefer stable and predictable quarterly earnings growth, therefore the
manager strives to minimize volatility as much as possible, preferably without jeopardizing their
annual bonus (or worse, as we shall see). One way to do this is to engage external market research
with a scope of work that implies that the result should be good, leading to higher budgets, more
technology, and business expansion; the goal is to increase the size and maybe influence the market
unlike the smallholder.
Rationing
With the discovery of first verified case in the state of Kerala on January 30, 2020, India proactively
took several measures to arrest the spread of infection. As the pandemic left deep wounds over the
world, the country was able to forecast the scale of the socioeconomic impact that the pandemic
would cause and how will it affect the country in the long term. The government has methodically
handled the outbreak's aftermath with maximum professionalism. The normal lives of all Indians
were flipped upside down on March 21, 2020, when a national lockdown was enforced for 21 days.
COVID-19 cases were increasing daily, despite the Indian government'_s_ _a_t_t_e_m_p_t_s_ _t_o_
_p_r_o_t_e_c_t_ _t_h_e_ _n_a_t_i_o_n_’s_ _p_o_p_u_l_a_t_i_o_n_ _o_f_ _1_._3_ _b_i_l_l_i_o_n_
_c_i_t_i_z_e_n_s_._ _Despite substantial economic progress in India all through the years,
starvation have remained. Statistics show that 190.7 million people in the country are
undernourished, with 25 percent suffering from malnutrition. Adding on to the prevalent situation in
India, the abrupt stoppage of economic activities across the country would bring into question the
country's rising food shortages and suffering for the impoverished. Despite the fact that the national
government has more power than the states, the chief ministers of each state share legislative,
judicial, and executive authority with the Prime Minister. Despite this, both the provinces and the
federal government have taken extraordinary efforts to confront the pandemic and its spread. The
country's socioeconomic shock can be understood by examining the immediate effects of the
epidemic on regional food systems as well as the resiliency measures taken to bolster the system.
Impact on food systems & supply chains
In Indian context, local food systems are fragile in nature. The informal sector employs around 91%
of the Indian workforce, which comprises migrant, agrarian & other workers. These people rely only
on daily earnings to make a li_v_e_l_i_h_o_o_d_._ _D_u_r_i_n_g_ _a_ _c_r_i_s_i_s_ _l_i_k_e_
_C_O_V_I_D_’1_9_ _t_h_e_s_e_ _p_e_o_p_l_e_ _&_ _t_h_e_i_r_ _f_a_m_i_l_i_e_s_ _w_e_r_e_
_i_m_p_a_c_t_e_d_ _the most. The rapid enactment of a statewide closure harmed the local food
systems though it was a s_m_a_r_t_ _p_r_e_c_a_u_t_i_o_n_ _t_o_ _c_o_n_t_r_o_l_ _t_h_e_
_s_t_r_e_t_c_h_ _o_f_ _t_h_e_ _C_O_V_I_D_’1_9_._ _T_h_e_ _c_o_u_n_t_r_y_w_i_d_e_
_lockdown coincided with the peak harvesting season of many crops. Fruits & Vegetables grown in
summer were ready for plucking; harvesting for barley, wheat & rice was almost ready for
harvesting; yet owing to the country's unexpected halt, all the farmers' arduous work was lost.
Northern India's record wheat harvest was impeded by a manpower shortage & difficulties in
transfer of quantities of harvest. Pune in Maharastra had an abundance of grapes but the farmers
there had to look for potential students to collect their harvests. Farmers had to sell their produce at
a cheaper price because storage facilities were full. Since there was no business for the farmed fish
& vegetables, post-harvest loss was observed. Transportation constraints, as well as the likelihood of
thorough border checks, made the transactions far more difficult to complete. The industry lost 22.5
million (USD 300,000) as a result of decreased poultry & meat demand, which concluded in an
inconceivable decline in costs. Since there was a sudden departure of customers and retailers, the
state like Haryana faced decayed demand for bell peppers & cucumbers in spite of a record harvest.
This was observed during the early phases C_O_V_I_D_’1_9_,_ _w_h_e_n_ _p_e_o_p_l_e_
_b_e_l_i_e_v_e_d_ _t_h_a_t_ _b_e_f_o_r_e_ _r_e_a_c_h_i_n_g_ _t_h_e_i_r_ _h_o_m_e_s_,_
_t_h_e_ _food items like vegetables were handled by many persons & hence they were unwilling to
buy the same. Due to a dearth of merchants and labourers, Karnataka, India's leading caffeine state,
has been unable to sell coffee. Tones of preserved coffee worth USD 52 million accumulated in
warehouses as a result of the supply chain disruption. The majority of the bean harvest had taken
place in December and was in the midst of being processed when domestic operations came to a
rest. Due to a dire shortage of labour, most of the coffee producers left the harvesting of
intercropped pepper. The prices of the food items increased in the country as there was a delay in
the logistics services & scarcity for the new supply. Buying groceries were a difficult task for urban
people across the country because the supplies were restricted at first. The primary cause was
people's hurried buying and hoarding. Retailers exploited the lockout landscape by charging much
higher prices for already in-market products. Black marketeers were on the increase, charging
outrageous rates for necessities. The Process food such as snacks, biscuits, the demand has
skyrocketed. However, all food manufacturing activities were halted in the meanwhile. As
employees return to their villages, large food processing businesses like as PepsiCo, Parle, ITC,
Britania and Nestle are functioning at decreased production level. A scarcity of raw materials also
contributed to a low manufacturing rate. Most merchants were short on labour due to a shortage of
transportation staff to acquire finished things and deliver them to their numerous locations. For
continuing the production, the food manufacturers needed to get some particular certificates if they
want to exempt from the closedown. This added to the delay caused by bureaucracy at the
municipal and national levels.