Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370

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Ocean Engineering
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/oceaneng

Dynamic stability of ships in regular and irregular seas - An overview

Marcelo A.S. Neves
LabOceano, COPPE-Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Dynamic stability of ships is discussed with focus on the stability of intact ships in waves. Some of the
Received 23 December 2015 main developments along the years are scrutinized. Regular and irregular conditions are addressed. An
Accepted 5 February 2016 overview is presented, with special emphasis on the covering of the last STAB 2015 Conference.
Available online 19 February 2016
& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Parametric rolling
Dynamic stability of intact ships
Pure loss of stability
Surf riding
Broaching

1. Introduction stability problems associated with water on deck and stability

It is generally accepted that a deep understanding of ship
responses in idealized regular waves is fundamental for the
understanding and adequate description of responses in more
realistic irregular seas. Hence, ship dynamic model responses in
deterministic waves have logically preceded investigations on ship
dynamics and then extended to the more realistic irregular case at
a later stage.
The capsize of an intact ship is a phenomenon which by its very
nature involves excessive motions. The most basic purpose of
research devoted to the study of ship dynamics has to concentrate
on the understanding of the role of different parameters necessary
to insure safety against capsizing in waves. This, however, appears
not to be a simple task. Here, it is possible to summarize indicating
two main causes for not being a simple task: (a) in a random
seaway we are faced with capsizing as a stochastic process.
(b) capsizes are rare events in severe seaways and are dependent
on a number of ship parameters as a consequence of the very low
probability levels involved.
Here we consider only intact ship stability problems. Some
consideration is given in the following of ship dynamic problems
in regular waves, as these are elucidative of the bifurcations
associated with stability problems. Also affected by clear bifurca-
tions is the stability of ships in beam seas, to which reference will
be made. Archetypical situations are: parametric rolling in fol-
lowing seas, surf-riding and broaching in following and quartering
seas, pure loss of stability and bow diving in following seas,
E-mail address: masn@laboceano.coppe.ufrj.br
problems in beam seas.
After qualifying stability problems in regular waves, con-
sideration will be given to stability and capsizing in irregular seas.
A brief review will be given of different methodologies employed
in these investigations.
From the very beginning it is important to give credit to three
technical books which are exceptionally relevant sources of
references on dynamic stability of ships (the complete references
are given at the end of this paper):
a) Belenky and Sevastianov (2007) "Stability and Safety of Ships-
Risk of Capsizing".
b) Neves, M.A.S., V.L. Belenky, J.O. de Kat, K. Spyrou, N. Umeda
(eds.) (2011)“Contemporary Ideas on Ship Stability and Cap-
sizing in Waves”.
c) Fossen T.I. and Nijmeijer, H. (eds.), (2012) “Parametric Reso-
nance in Dynamical Systems”.
The STAB 2015 paper Backalov et al. (2015a), "Ship Stability,
Dynamics and Safety: Status and Perspectives" is also worth
mentioning. It is a quite complete review covering all papers that
appeared in recent STAB Conferences and ISSW events, covering
the period between 2009 and 2014. Along similar lines, Backalov
et al (2015b), "Ship Stability & Safety in Intact Condition through
Operational Measures" is another review of papers from STAB
Conferences and ISSW events covering the same period with focus
on operational risk control.
Due to strategic editorial reasons topics associated with stabi-
lity criteria (first and second generations) are not covered in the

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.02.010
0029-8018/& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 M.A.S. Neves / Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370
present review, as these are contained in the companion paper by
Francescutto (2015).
2. A first generation of studies on dynamic stability of ships
In this section a brief review is presented of the ample area of
dynamic stability of ships in waves, with developments starting
with Froude's time, then jumping to the period of thirty years
between 1952 and 1982, when the 2nd International Conference
on the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles took place in Tokyo. In
the mean time, reference will be made to the historical 1st Inter-
national Conference on the Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles
organized by Professor Chengi Kuo in Glasgow in 1975.
Regarding parametric rolling, it is well known that the vertical
modes may in certain circumstances affect the roll motion, as
Froude (1861) pointed out. He observed that ships have undesir-
able roll characteristics when the frequency of a small, free oscil-
lation in heave is twice the frequency of a small, free oscillation
in roll.
This is clear from the fact that for a ship in waves the righting
arm will vary continuously in the process of heaving and pitching
and wave passage along the hull. A parametric excitation is
introduced into the ship motion problem (see for example
the classical papers by Grim (1952) and Kerwin (1955)). Then the
well-known differential equation of Mathieu (see for instance
McLachlan (1955)) is obtained which typically characterizes the
resonant rolling motion in longitudinal waves. Depending on
the values of the coefficients, this equation yields a stable or
unstable solution. Though it may be obtained from some couplings
between roll and heave & pitch, strictly speaking the Mathieu
equation is an uncoupled equation, which is used to describe the
roll motion (see Wellicome (1975) for a fine analytical treatment).
Reflecting the relatively limited tools available to researchers at
the time, it is emblematic that in Wellicome (1975) the numerical
simulations were performed using an analogical computer.
Certainly at the time there was a somewhat limited perception
of the analytical resources available for advances on ship stability
analysis; despite this, the technical community was well aware of
the need to progress. In 1975, during the 1st International Con-
ference on Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles, Kuo and Gordon
(1975) carried out a survey on the opinion of the delegates on the
stability problem as a whole. It became apparent that many
delegates considered the IMO (then IMCO) criteria as unreliable
and insufficient; therefore there was a demand for further
advances and investigations on dynamic stability of ships in waves.
Yet, the main perception was that beam seas was the dangerous
situation from the capsize point of view. The San Francisco Bay
revealing experiments were not well known to many in the
community. The defining logic adopted within the community was
one derived from the studies related with the consolidation of the
1977 Torremolinos Conference. Covering these first decades of
studies three excellent reviews on dynamic stability of ships are
worth mentioning here: Bird and Odabasi (1975), Marshfield
(1976) and Kuo and Welaya (1981). These three papers offer to
readers some excellent assessments of the pertinent knowledge
published during that decade.
A considerable amount of work was then invested in the
dynamic rolling stability of fishing vessels, e.g. Morral (1975),
Wright and Marshfield (1980). In particular, accident reviews of
fishing vessels capsizes offered significant contributions during
the period to an increased understanding of dynamic stability of
ships in waves: Dahle and Kjeerland (1980) described the inves-
tigation and recommendations for preventing similar accidents as
one that resulted in the capsize of a fishing vessel converted into
research vessel, the main hypothesis being that the vessel was hit
363
by a large beam wave. Morral (1980a) conducted experiments in
which a comparative analysis was performed with two very
similar fishing vessels; very similar main dimensions, but having
distinct stern shapes: a transom stern and a round stern. The
experiments revealed marked differences in responses to waves of
the two hulls and gave one of the first insights on the potentially
adverse role of transom sterns from the point of view of dynamic
stability. A second investigation by Morral (1980b) addressed the
accident that resulted in the disappearance of the large
trawler Gaul.
Before closing this section, it is worth referencing the seminal
work of Blocki (1980), who applied wave group concepts in order
to model parametric roll excitation of ships in irregular seas. This
pioneering work opened the way to a substantial amount of
papers with similar approaches, combining deterministic and
probabilistic methodologies.
3. San Francisco Bay experiments and other developments
Two events contributed to significant advances during the 70's:
the 1st International Conference on Stability of Ships and Ocean
Vehicles and the San Francisco Bay experiments. Six years before
this inaugural 1st STAB Conference, the United States Coast Guard
sponsored a sophisticated program of research at the University of
California which started with a comprehensive program of free
sailing model testing in the open waters of San Francisco Bay, see
Chou et al. (1973), Oakley et al. (1974) and Paulling et al. (1972),
(1975). A real landmark in dynamic stability studies. As a result it
was possible to identify from the extensive free model tests three
observed modes of capsizing in quartering and following seas.
These are labeled as low-cycle resonance, pure loss of stability and
broaching.
The low-cycle resonant mode refers to parametric roll, which
may be observed not only in following seas, as will be seen in
greater detail ahead.
Pure loss of stability and broaching usually occur in following
seas at high speeds. Broaching is the most dynamic mode, in
appearance. Broaching is caused by directional instability of a
vessel accelerated on the face of a wave. The situation can be
either caused by or compounded by any loss of the effectiveness of
the rudder due to wave orbital velocities and emergence. Covering
the first scientific studies on surf-riding and broaching, it is
necessary to mention the Du Cane and Goodrich (1962) paper. The
authors conducted experiments with a free-running model in
following seas which showed how a model can be ‘captured’ by
the wave and accelerated to wave-velocity (surf-riding). More than
one decade later Nicholson (1974) parametric experiments gave
new impetus and basis for new investigations on following seas
stability problems. Given the typical low encounter frequency
some authors modeled surf-riding (and broaching problems) in a
quasi-steady fashion, see for instance Renilson and Driscoll (1982).
If directional instability takes place, the associated angular velocity
will induce a dynamic heeling which may combine with the wave
action to cause capsize.
Presently, other possible dangerous modes are explored in
detail in the literature, beyond the three modes previously dis-
cussed: excessive accelerations, dead ship conditions, water on
deck and bow diving (see Grochowalski (1989)). However, due to
lack of space, these additional possible stability failure modes will
not be addressed in this brief overview.
From the analytical point of view, a special position goes to the
innovative work of Prof. A. Y. Odabasi. In a series of papers his
investigative work examined the role of nonlinearities in the roll
motion and clarified many of the theoretical tools available at the
364 M.A.S. Neves / Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370
time for stability analyses of ships in waves. A fine reference is
Odabasi (1982).
It is interesting to appreciate the precise and wise perception of
dynamic stability problems expressed by the Department of Naval
Architecture of the University of California group led by Prof. J. R.
Paulling. Already sharp, more than 40 years ago. Quoting from one
of the University of California reports: Chou et al. (1973), in
"Capsizing Experiments in San Francisco Bay – Annual Report":
“Simply stated, in order to define with reasonable confidence the
probability of capsize occurrence in one specific condition of loading
on the borderline of the ‘safe’ range, we would require an extremely
large number of experiments, probably more than could be conducted
in several seasons of testing”.
4. Recent studies on dynamic stability in regular seas
Since the fifties parametric rolling of ships has continuously
received wide attention of researchers and designers. For a review
of the first papers on the topic, see Paulling (2011), one of the most
referenced review papers on parametric rolling. The first investi-
gations were more concerned with following seas conditions; the
well-known paper by Paulling and Rosemberg (1959) was among
the first publications towards understanding roll resonance due to
coupled parametric excitation of ships.
In this section (and in the subsequent one) developments in
dynamic stability of ships in waves will be addressed in their time
profile from the nineties up to the last STAB 2015 conference, of
which a more detailed review shall be presented.
Following and head seas parametric rolling are usually asso-
ciated with the existence of a forward ship speed regulating the
definition of the required encounter frequency. However, para-
metric rolling of ships at zero speed of advance may be identified
as a source of risk. This situation was experimentally tested in
1986 and first described in Neves et al. (1986) with two similar
fishing vessels (hulls that had already been tested by Morral
(1980a)), tested at the Valdivia ship model basin of the Uni-
versidad Austral de Chile for different wave lengths and ampli-
tudes and metacentric heights. Umeda et al. (1995) reported on
capsize tests in astern seas. Subsequently, Neves et al. (1999)
reported on results from a battery of tests with the same two hulls,
now in regular head seas. Different speeds and wave amplitudes
were considered. Parametric rolling in head seas (see for example
Neves et al. (2002) for fishing vessels and France et al. (2003) for
container ships) became accepted as a relevant instabilizing
mechanism, in particular affecting, amongst others, fishing vessels,
modern containerships and cruise vessels.
Considering the well-known existence of the Mathieu resonant
frequencies, focus has been concentrated on the first region of
instabilization, the one defined by the proximity of encounter
frequency to twice the roll natural frequency. Interesting to note:
to our knowledge, there is in the literature a unique reported case
of experimentally observed parametric rolling in following waves
at the second region of instabilization (encounter frequency close
to the roll natural frequency) as reported in Obreja et al. (2008).
Roll motion has usually been modeled as an uncoupled
Mathieu equation, Spyrou (2000), Shin et al. (2004). Worth men-
tioning is the more elaborated 1.5 degrees of freedom model
introduced by Bulian (2006). A step further, Neves and Valerio
(2000) advocated the need for the coupling of the heave and pitch
equations with the roll motion equation. Employing Taylor series
expansions up to second order, it was possible to express restoring
actions in the heave, roll and pitch modes in a nonlinearly coupled
way. Wave action was taken into consideration not only in the
linear Froude–Krilov plus diffraction first order forcing functions,
but also in second order terms resulting from volumetric changes
of submerged hull due to wave passage effects. Neves et al. (2003)
pointed out that the second order coupled model could simulate
well the roll amplifications of a round stern fishing vessel. How-
ever, in the case of a transom stern fishing vessel the second order
model tended to give excessive responses, much larger than the
intense amplifications observed in the reported experimental test
results. Therefore, it was concluded that the second order model
was not capable of reproducing intense parametric excitations in
roll for some hull forms.
A third order model coupling heave, roll and pitch was first
introduced in Neves and Rodríguez (2004). The 3rd order
numerical simulations based on the new model showed quite
realistic comparisons with the experimental time-series results in
conditions for which the second order model offered poor results.
This was verified for distinct wave amplitudes and ship speeds in
Neves and Rodríguez (2006).
Matuziak (2003) investigated the influence of wave amplitude,
damping and initial conditions on the development of parametric
rolling. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the complex
nonlinear responses to specific hull design configurations, a qua-
litative analysis of the coupled nonlinear system was performed by
Neves and Rodríguez (2007). The analysis pointed out to the
appearance of super-harmonics and a constant term due to heave
and pitch motions coupling with roll motion and wave passage.
Analytic expressions were derived for these contributions. It was
concluded that the essential dynamic characteristics of the cou-
pled system are those of a Hill equation with a hardening term
proportional to wave amplitude squared. The increased stiffness,
proportional to wave amplitude squared, is thought to be
responsible for giving to the third order model such a realistic
description of the parametric amplification. The analysis also
allows to distinguish the separate effects on frequency shift ori-
ginating from: the heave-roll-pitch nonlinear coupling and roll
restoring curve nonlinearities.
Limits of stability are a practical and direct way of assessing the
safety of a design. Spyrou and Tigkas (2007), McCue et al. (2007)
and Neves and Rodríguez (2007) have employed different tech-
niques to produce limits of stability. Neves and Rodríguez (2007)
introduced analytical expressions for the limits of stability of the
roll linear variational equation of the 3rd order model based on
the technique developed by Hsu (1963). Bulian et al. (2009) suc-
cessfully applied Floquet theory for determining numerical limits
of stability.
An interesting nonlinear aspect of the new limits of stability is
that they may display upper frontiers, as a consequence of the
nonlinear frequency affecting the limits of stability. This feature
implies that at a given frequency, above a certain level of wave
amplitude, further increasing the wave amplitude may result in
the complete disappearance of parametric amplification. This
relevant aspect of strong parametric resonances had already been
pointed out by Neves and Rodríguez (2004). It is important to
notice that in the 2009 SAFEDOR benchmark exercise, heave-roll-
pitch tests on parametric rolling of a container ship experimentally
demonstrated and clarified the occurrence of this interesting and
relevant nonlinear aspect, Spanos and Papanikolaou (2009a),
(2009b).
Limits of stability derived from the analytical approach show in
general good agreement with the corresponding limits obtained
when employing numerical procedures, and due to its relatively
easy implementation, should find good applicability in the ship
preliminary design stage. One limitation of the analytical approach
is that it does not provide information on the magnitude and
distribution of parametric rolling amplitudes within the limits. To
overcome this inconvenience, two numerical approaches have
been proposed, Rodríguez and Neves (2012a), in order to compute
the domains of roll parametric amplification. A first one using the
 M.A.S. Neves / Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370
Fig. 1. Distinct topology of domains of parametric amplifications: (a) transom stern fishing vessel (TS) and (b) modern containership (NTU). Adapted from Rodríguez and
Neves (2012a).
Wave Amplitude Effect on Parametric Rolling
a 40
Ship TS: GM= 0.37 m; Fn=0.20; ksi=180°
We=2.00 Wn4
We=2.15 Wn4
35 We=2.30 Wn4
30
Roll amplitude [deg]
25
20
15
10
5
0 0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Wave amplitude [m]
Fig. 2. Roll amplitudes for the two ships: (a) transom stern fishing vessel (TS) and (b) modern containership (NTU). Adapted from Rodríguez and Neves (2012a).
uncoupled roll equation, and the second one applying a more
robust system of nonlinear equations coupling heave, roll and
pitch. On comparing the two latter approaches for two different
hull forms, relevant conclusions could be drawn, e.g., the impor-
tance of nonlinear coupling between the vertical modes and roll
mode in the determination of parametric roll amplitudes for some
hull types. As discussed in the above referenced paper, the
uncoupled numerical approach can produce misleading predic-
tions of parametric amplitudes for some hull forms. Comparisons
made between domains of roll parametric amplification of a
fishing vessel and a containership for different conditions showed
distinct patterns of roll responses, as shown in Fig. 1, in which
it is observed the markedly distinct topology of the two domains
of parametric amplifications: (a) fishing vessel (TS) and
(b) containership (NTU). A significant aspect of this type of com-
parative results is that they may contribute to a deeper under-
standing of the complex and rich character of the nonlinear
dynamics of coupled parametric rolling. The aim here is to get a
clear perception of the quite distinct bifurcations that each hull
would undergo as wave amplitude is increased. Fig. 2 shows, for
the transom stern fishing vessel and the NTU container ship, the
steady roll amplitudes inside the respective domains of parametric
amplifications as the tuning between encounter frequency and roll
natural frequency varies, for values close to the exact Mathieu
tuning of ωe ¼ 2ωn4, that is, encounter frequency equal to twice the
365
Wave Amplitude Effect on Parametric Rolling
b 30
Ship NTU : GM=1.84 m; Fn=0.1022; ksi=180°
We=2.00 Wn4
We=2.05 Wn4
25 We=2.10 Wn4
Roll amplitude [deg]
20
15
10
5
1.0 1.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Wave amplitude [m]
roll natural frequency. It is observed in Fig. 2a (left) that for the
fishing vessel, increasing wave amplitude the roll amplitude starts
to amplify at a given threshold wave amplitude and grows up
continuously and smoothly. It then reaches a maximum and sub-
sequently diminishes in the form of an abrupt jump down to a
condition of no amplification response. On the other hand, as
shown in Fig. 2b (right) for the containership, for low wave
amplitudes the roll responses to parametric excitation start with a
jump bifurcation, reaching very rapidly high amplitude values, of
the order of 24° for some frequencies. After this initial bifurcation,
roll responses for increasing wave amplitudes tend to decrease in a
smooth trend, finally disappearing for higher wave amplitudes. It
is concluded that the fishing vessel and container vessel display
quite distinct paths to bifurcations.
Nowadays, several numerical methodologies exist for predict-
ing the nonlinear behavior of parametric rolling of ships in waves
in time domain. These procedures are usually categorized into
fully nonlinear and weakly nonlinear codes. The first type con-
siders nonlinearities in all the involved forces (usually employing a
strip theory approach), whereas the second one introduces non-
linearities basically in the inertia, restoring and incident wave
forces-and external damping coefficients-in an explicit time
domain integration scheme considering the pressure integration
to be computed in the instantaneous wetted hull. This second type
model has now become very popular, different variations are now
366 M.A.S. Neves / Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370
in use. Just to mention a few of them: FREDYN, LAMP, LAIDYN,
TEMPEST.
If most papers on parametric rolling have been investigated in
the context of ship stability, an increased awareness of parametric
resonance occurrence has now been observed in other types of
floating platforms. In the offshore industry parametric amplifica-
tions have been observed, both from experiments and/or numer-
ical simulations: SPAR buoys (see Rodríguez and Neves (2012b)),
Tension Leg platforms (see Rivera et al. (2012)), mono-columns
(see Polo et al. (2013)) and FPSO's (see Greco et al. (2014)).
It would be erroneous to assume that parametric rolling in
regular waves is a finished topic. Less papers are appearing at
conferences, but to challenge the wrong impression two very
recent papers have recently been published on the subject: Greco
and Lugni (2013) and Greco et al. (2015a)
Only three papers on parametric rolling in regular waves
appeared in the last STAB 2015 conference. One of them, Umeda
et al. (2015), addressed parametric rolling in oblique regular waves
considering both numerical and experimental approaches, thus
providing important data for future investigations. Another origi-
nal investigation studied the correlation between parametric
rolling and added resistance, see Lu et al. (2015), in regular head
waves. Added resistance with and without parametric rolling were
obtained both from experiments and numerical simulations,
demonstrating the influence of rolling on added resistance. The
third paper, Liu and Papanikolaou (2015) revisits parametric
resonance occurrence results as observed in the 2009 SAFEDOR
benchmark exercise with special emphasis on the comparison of
numerical results of a 6-DOF code with experimental results. A
good discussion is introduced on the nonlinear effect of reduced
roll amplification or even disappearance when increased external
wave excitation is applied, as already discussed in Neves and
Rodríguez (2004) and Spanos and Papanikolaou (2009a), (2009b).
In a similar way as the studies in regular waves was indis-
pensable to the acquisition of a deep understanding of the com-
plexities of parametric resonance, surf-riding and the subsequent
broaching tendency has been also examined in detail by means of
different mathematical models in regular waves. In this sense the
role of nonlinearities could be well ascertained as well as the
relevance of some characteristic bifurcations involved.
An excellent discussion on surf-riding and broaching appeared
in Belenky and Sevastianov (2007). Section 6.3 of the book con-
stitutes indispensable reading for details of the studies on surf-
riding and broaching in regular waves, following and quartering
seas. Surf-riding in following seas is investigated as a surge sta-
bility problem. Bifurcation analysis is used to describe, in a clear
and elegant way, the transition from periodic motions to surf-
riding through a Hopf bifurcation. More degrees of freedom are
important in the context of quartering seas. Minimally, surge,
sway, roll and yaw in quartering seas are addressed, in conjunction
with an autopilot equation. A full map of bifurcations is discussed.
Distinct broaching scenarios are presented. A list of relevant
references from the second half of the nineties is given, in which
the works of Spyrou (1996a), (1996b) and Umeda (1999) are
highlighted. Another excellent source of references on surf-riding
and broaching can be found in Neves et al (2011). More recently
Horel et al. (2013), (2014) have investigated broaching occurrence
from both 6-DOF time-domain numerical simulations and
experimental investigations for a small fishing vessel. Again,
experiments with a reduced model of a free-running fishing vessel
in stern seas at small frequencies of encounter have been reported
by Thys and Faltinsen (2014) in conjunction with numerical
simulations. Good agreement between experiments and numerical
simulations was encountered only when experimental wave-
induced surge forces were fed into the numerical simulations. In
fact it is well known that wave-induced surge forces based on a
Froude–Krilov model leads to an overestimation of the danger of
broaching and pure loss of stability. Yu et al. (2015) have investi-
gated the influence of rudder emersion on ship broaching
employing a combined manoeuvring and seakeeping model. The
paper confirms, using the proposed mathematical model, that
rudder emersion is a key factor for the occurrence of a broaching
tendency. Unfortunately, up to now no experimental results are
available for validation of the mathematical model.
Prediction of wave-induced surge force for the assessment of
surf-riding and associated broaching tendency have been investi-
gated by Hashimoto et al. (2015) using CFD modeling. The authors
investigate the influence of diffraction and ship motion to a more
accurate prediction as confronted with the linear Froude–Krylov
calculation and the CFD results are compared with an existing
captive experimental result. As a result, it is well confirmed that
the CFD provides more accurate prediction than the Froude–Kry-
lov component and the CFD results show fairly good agreement
with the experimental results. The paper stresses the relevance of
taking into account the ship attitude obtained as hydrostatically
balanced position in waves, to extract the dynamic effect of ship
motion.
de Jong et al. (2015) have developed a hybrid semi-nonlinear
panel method combined with empirical viscous flow corrections,
resulting in a quite robust simulation model which contemplates a
resistance model, a propeller, rudder and auto-pilot. The broaching
in regular following to astern quartering waves was simulated to
study the effect of vessel speed, wave length and heading angle to
the waves; a fine form displacement vessel was used in following
to quartering regular waves. The same particular hull shape was
used earlier in the work of Renilson and Driscoll (1982). The main
physical characteristics of surf-riding and broaching for the varied
parameters: vessel speed, wave length and heading angle were
observed, thus asserting the usefulness and applicability of the
simulation model.
Verboom and van Walree (2015) describe the validation exer-
cise completed for two detailed hybrid panel codes made against
experimental results obtained for a frigate hull form operating in
stern quartering seas. Essential aspects of the codes are: 3D tran-
sient Green function to account to free surface effects, 3D panel
method for Froude–Krilov forces on the instantaneous wetted
surface, cross flow, propulsion, resistance, viscous roll damping
and auto-pilot. Results are good for all modes but some dis-
crepancies are encountered for the sway and yaw motions.
5. Dynamic stability of ships in stochastic seas
The behavior of a ship in a seaway is under the influence of
random environment conditions and hence a stochastic analysis is
needed to understand and interpret the resulting motion. The
problem of nonlinear roll responses becomes especially complex
in irregular waves. There are not only challenging theoretical
issues involved, but also a plethora of numerical issues. In the
stochastic treatment randomness may enter in a number of ways,
as discussed in Arnold et al. (2003). A common approach is to
consider the excitation term and some of the system parameters,
for example the restoring moment, to be varying randomly.
Belenky et al. (2003) and Bulian et al. (2004) discuss the problem
of probabilistic assessment in irregular head seas including the
problem of practical ergodicity. Bulian and Francescutto (2006)
consider their 1.5 degrees of freedom mathematical model and
employ the Green effective wave scheme. Statistically equivalent
linearization is used; analytical results are compared with Monte
Carlo simulations with limited success.
Beam seas (Roberts, 1982a) and parametric rolling (Roberts,
1982b) were investigated in which the uncoupled roll equation
 M.A.S. Neves / Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370
was averaged in the sense of Stratonovitch. The approach is based
on approximating the total energy envelope of the roll as a one-
dimensional Markov process. The associated Fokker–Plank–Kol-
mogorov equation is accessed, allowing the transition distribution
function to be determined. In a later contribution - Roberts and
Vasta (2000) - a simple modification to the theory is introduced
which allows the estimation method to be independent of the roll
stationarity hypothesis. The excitation process is obtained by fil-
tering white noise, an approach that had already been explored in
Francescutto (1991).
More recently, Dostal and Kreuzer (2014) have successfully
introduced additional hypothesis in the context of stochastic
averaging a coupled set of equations in heave-roll-pitch in waves.
They obtain drift and diffusion equations of roll energy incorpor-
ating heave and pitch effects. Therefore, efficient parametric roll-
ing predictions are made possible. Closed form solutions of aver-
aged roll energy are obtained which are also valid for large roll
amplitudes. The results are used to calculate the desired mean first
passage times. Wave excitation is modeled by a non-white sta-
tionary stochastic process. This process is derived from a spectral
description of the random seaway using a traveling effective wave,
a model that is now often used in irregular seas studies.
In the Proceedings of the STAB 2015 conference two papers are
devoted to beam seas stochastic averaging with uncoupled roll
motion: Le Pivert et al. (2015) and Chai et al. (2015). The first one
aims to develop an analytical model employing two dimensional
linear filtering. This is the first concession to an analytical model.
The second one is the linearization of both the restoring moment
around the equilibrium and damping moment. The analytical
results have been tested against simulations produced using
FREDYN with consistent comparisons.
The second paper (Chai et al., 2015) investigates the influence
of using second order or fourth order linear filters in order to fit
the narrow-banded random wave excitation. Additionally, non-
linear damping model influence is examined. Using second order
filter leads to a 4-DOF dynamic system. Two distinct damping
models are considered: the linear-plus-quadratic damping (LPQD)
model and the linear-plus-cubic damping (LPCD) model, their
effects on the stochastic roll response are investigated. Monte
Carlo simulations are used to validate the distinct stochastic
models of roll response. Path integration method is used to
numerically solve the high dimension system.
A third STAB 2015 paper dealing with irregular beam seas
situations in which an uncoupled roll equation is considered is
Anastopoulos and Spyrou (2015). However, the mathematical
model and scientific strategy flows in different waters. In this case
the computationally efficient conceptual model of Themelis and
Spyrou (2007) based on the linking of a probabilistic method with
deterministic tools is revisited and expanded. A novel method
advances to consider tools of nonlinear dynamics, e.g. safe basins
and integrity diagrams. The short duration of the realistic wave
group excitation is a critical aspect, allowing stability analyses to
be performed in terms of transient basin erosion diagrams. The
evolution of the computed safe basins indicates that the sudden
erosion of the safe basin caused by irregular wave group excitation
is a qualitatively different process from the typical regular
approach.
One of the main objectives in the analysis of parametric rolling
in irregular seas is the estimation of the severity of extreme roll
responses for given operating condition and a specified exposure
time. The detailed time-domain nonlinear codes discussed in the
previous section can, in principle, be activated in systematic time
simulations in order to assess the statistical quantities associated
with large roll events. However, the statistical distribution of
extreme responses cannot easily be calculated due to the
367
computational cost inherent in long-term Monte Carlo simulations
based on computationally intensive models.
Methods to obtain the extreme value distribution of roll
amplitude for a given exposure period may be estimated by means
of statistical extrapolation of extreme value distributions. The
success of this statistical extrapolation method is dependent on
the amount of the available data for the estimation of the para-
meters and the ratio of the period of the Monte Carlo simulation to
the target exposure period. One of the first attempts to tackle this
difficult problem was presented by McTaggart and de Kat (1993).
They used the parameters of the first extreme value distribution
(Gumbel) obtained from relatively short exposure period Monte
Carlo simulations to find the extreme value distribution for rela-
tively longer exposure periods.
It is noted that in the last few years a series of comprehensive
ONR projects have propelled ship dynamics advances in stochastic
seas to a new level of developments. These advances have been
discussed in detail in a series of remarkable papers read at STAB
conferences and ISSW events, and some of them, presented at the
STAB 2015 Conference are summarized below.
The probability of exceedance of a certain roll angle is a useful
statistical characteristic for parametric roll response. The Envelope
Peak Over Threshold (EPOT) method, as the name suggests, pro-
cesses the collection of peaks over a certain threshold value. This
threshold limit is a crucial choice, as it will regulate the amount of
data to be considered. But, very important, shall lead to an explicit
account of better representation of the relevant nonlinear char-
acteristic of the large roll excursions. This is modeled as a Poisson
flow and therefore requires independence of events. The required
independence events, however, may be a challenging problem,
particularly for parametric roll cases because of the practical non-
ergodicity problem. Campbell et al. (2015) make a thorough
examination of the principal characteristics and difficulties in fit-
ting a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to the high tail of the
distribution in the case of parametric rolling. However, other
problems are present. A numerical difficulty is due to the
requirement of de-clusterization, see Kim et al (2014) for details
on de-clusterization of data. A comprehensive validation study of
the EPOT method is reported by Smith and Zuzik (2015).
Typically, assessment of parametric roll motion characteristics
in stochastic seas demands high computational effort and, as a
consequence, appear prohibitive in terms of simulation time. An
elaborated alternative approach to statistical assessment of para-
metric rolling can be found in the work of Kim and Troesch (2011),
(2013) which consists on a practical methodology leading to an
efficient probabilistic assessment of large amplitude parametric
rolling for a given exposure period. The methodology possesses
the advantage of bypassing the known difficulties associated with
the existence of practical non-ergodicity characteristic of extreme
roll motion time series, thus significantly reducing the computa-
tional burden.The methodology involves the computation through
a Design Load Generator (DLG) process in which the extreme value
distribution of the instantaneous GM (t) metacentric height (a
Gaussian random variable) is used in order to compute the
extreme value distribution of the associated nonlinear roll motion.
DLG is a process that can construct an ensemble of short input
time series, the extreme responses of which follow the theoretical
extreme value distribution of a Gaussian random variable for a
given exposure time. The input time series are calculated based on
the assumption of a linear system and a Gaussian seaway.
Stochastic consideration of realistic wave groups with varying
periods is involved. Subsequently, having estimated the environ-
mental conditions leading to extreme restoring moments, a
detailed commercial 6-DOF code may be efficiently used to com-
pute extreme roll distribution.
368 M.A.S. Neves / Ocean Engineering 120 (2016) 362–370
In recent years, there has been a pressing demand for fast time-
domain algorithms (not only in the context of second generation
stability criteria assessments). There is here a difficult challenge:
how to reach a reliable balance between numerical accuracy and
limited computing time. But there is much to be learnt in this area,
in which deep understanding of the essential characteristics of
ship dynamics are essential to simplify matters in a rational way,
therefore with capabilities of creating very large data sets of ship
motions in severe, irregular seas. Some of the recent proposals are:
Song and Kim (2011) used Fourier series decomposition applied to
a one-degree-of freedom roll model. Alternatively, Weems and
Wundrow (2013) used a volume-based heave-roll-pitch hybrid
model. Somayajula and Falzarano (2014) used a Volterra series
model, again using a one degree of freedom model. In the last
STAB 2015 Conference two papers have discussed the issue
of producing fast and at the same time reliable time domain
algorithms: Rodríguez et al. (2015) and Weems and Belenky
(2015). In the first paper, taking full advantage of the capabilities of
the heave-roll-pitch derivative model proposed by Neves and
Rodríguez (2006) (based on Taylor series expansions), the Authors
have extended the model to incorporate random excitation in time
domain, computed based on the model assumption that all
internal excitations are defined as Gaussian processes. It is shown
that the proposed numerical model is capable of reproducing not
only nonlinear phenomena, such as parametric rolling, but also its
non-ergodic character in stochastic waves. The method described
in the second paper, first described in Weems and Wundrow
(2013), uses a volume-based evaluation of the Froude–Krylov and
hydrostatic pressure forces.
Pure loss of stability and surf riding and broaching in random
stern seas has been the focus of investigations reported in a series
of papers in the last years, specially since STAB 2012. In particular,
elaborating on the role of wave celerity in identifying the capture
to surf-riding, new definition and methods for the analysis of wave
celerity in irregular seas have been proposed and their relevance
to the problem of surf-riding have been examined. Spyrou et al.
(2012) and Belenky et al. (2012) examined the probability of surf-
riding in irregular waves as a threshold exceedance problem by
considering instantaneous wave positions where the equilibrium
of longitudinal forces appear and disappear at different instances
of time and points in space. This is governed by the time depen-
dent nature of critical points in the problem in irregular seas.
An instigating new approach to these efforts can be found in
Kontolefas and Spyrou (2015). They use the concept of hyperbolic
Lagrangean Coherent Structures (LCSs) in an attempt to get a
deeper insight into the surge dynamics in irregular seas, as this
nonlinear dynamics scheme may possibly track otherwise unseen
dynamical aspects of the changing-in-time organization of the
surging dynamics in multi-frequency following waves.
Two other papers in the STAB 2015 Conference also dealt with
following seas stability problems in irregular seas. Belenky et al.
(2015a), (2015b) discuss the application of the same split-time
method to surf-riding and pure loss of stability, respectively. These
two papers actually correspond to well elaborated and didactic
summary papers of previous reports.
The role of instantaneous celerity has been investigated in a
scenario of significant surf-riding episodes of a ship attaining
"high runs" for different time durations in multi-chromatic seas, as
described by Themelis et al. (2015). High runs are surf-riding
manifestations in extreme following seas in which high speeds are
induced for a consistently considerable time. Statistics of high runs
are calculated. As the authors state in their conclusions, the topic
of "high runs" in following seas, interesting and complex as it is,
"remains open, since the dynamics behind these events are not
completely well understood yet". It will be interesting to see new
developments in the future on this challenging topic".
6. Final remarks
The last STAB 2015 Conference held in Glasgow has been
widely recognized as a high standard stability conference. He have
attempted to review all conference papers dealing with main
stream lines of investigations on dynamic stability of ships: beam
seas roll responses, parametric rolling (mainly head seas) and
following seas stability problems. For space and time limitations
some few relevant papers dealing with less central aspects of
dynamic stability have been left aside.
It is natural to ask about future researches. There are strong
indications that the roles of main nonlinearities in parametric
rolling in regular waves head seas and surf-riding in regular fol-
lowing seas are well understood. Regarding responses in irregular
waves. Second Generation criteria will expose the stability com-
munity to an enormous number of simulations in an unprece-
dented scale, what will for sure enlarge the lessons to be learnt in
a fast pace. Detailed knowledge of the influence of damping
moment on parametric rolling seems still to be not so deep. In fact,
reliable damping assessment remains a challenge. It is just an
approximation (quite unnatural!) to derive experimental damping
coefficients from roll decay experiments and insert these into 6-
DOF numerical simulations in which large motions are attained.
As mentioned previously, it would be erroneous to assume that
parametric rolling in regular waves is a finished topic. But for sure,
parametric resonance in irregular waves will remain as a central
focus of research projects in the coming years. Stochastic aver-
aging method as proposed by Dostal and Kreuzer (2014) is another
promising line of investigation. Some of the stochastic approaches
presently being explored are relatively new, so there is still a lot to
be learnt, as may well be the case, for instance, with the meth-
odologies proposed by Kim and Troesch, reviewed in the previous
section. Very much the same applies to stochastic analysis of surf-
riding or loss of stability in extreme waves in following seas.
Acknowledments
Author has been supported by CNPq, Brazil, through the STAB
Project (Nonlinear Stability of Ships). This essential support is
greatly acknowledged.
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