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THAT Pakistan has finally got the assurance of an on-site visit

from the FATF to verify the “implementation and sustainability of
the country’s money-laundering and counterterrorism financing
measures” before it is formally removed from the task force’s
increased monitoring (grey) list, is the best outcome we could
have hoped for from the current review. It means that Pakistan
should be removed from the grey list in October once the on-site
inspection is conducted. In its recent Berlin plenary, the global
money-laundering and terrorist-financing watchdog has made its
initial determination that Pakistan has substantially completed
two action plans, complying with all 34 items, noting that this
showed that the “necessary political commitment remains in
place to sustain implementation and improvement in the future”.
According to the watchdog: “Pakistan demonstrated that terror-
financing investigations and prosecutions target senior leaders
and commanders of UN-designated terrorist groups and that
there is a positive upwards trend in the number of money-
laundering investigations and prosecutions being pursued in
Pakistan... .”

This assessment of Pakistan’s efforts to exit the grey list is

primarily based on the extensive work done by the previous PTI
government to simultaneously complete two challenging action
plans given to it for compliance to avoid being blacklisted. Yet it
will be unfair to not give credit to the coalition government for
using diplomatic channels to help the country exit the list. There
are reports that China had recently been working quietly to help
Islamabad on this front. Many believe that the decision also
indicates tacit US support. If true, it means that we are now
closer to the restoration of the IMF bailout, even if not there yet.
Once formally removed from the list, the country will see its
credit rating improve, giving confidence to foreign investors.
That several actions implemented over the last four years
wouldn’t have been possible without the military’s consent
shows the army has remained supportive of the civilian efforts to
exit the list. Last but not the least, the conviction of the banned
Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed on terrorism-related charges
must also have strengthened Pakistan’s case.

No matter how encouraging it is, Pakistan’s success in meeting

FATF’s anti-money-laundering and antiterrorist-financing
standards in an exceptionally short time frame, despite the
efforts of certain foreign powers to get the country blacklisted,
should not make the authorities complacent as had been the case
previously. We have been on the grey list thrice since 2008. Being
downgraded to that list again would do irreparable damage to
the economy and international trade. It is, therefore, hoped that
the nation’s civilian and military leadership will continue to
show the highest level of political commitment to address the
leftover deficiencies in the country’s AML/CFT regime, and carry
on the good work to update and strengthen the relevant laws,
regulations and procedures in the months and years to come.

Published in Dawn, June 18th, 2022

Opinion
A comedy of figures
tribune.com.pk/story/2362032/a-comedy-of-figures

June 17, 2022

The writer is a retired professional based in Canada

The two yearly run-of-the-mill documents, Economic Survey of

Pakistan and the Budget, are nothing more than a comedy of
figures to make it sound like a play. In fact, chicanery is an
appropriate expression for these deceitful figures cobbled up each
year by our financial gurus who can make an elephant look like
an ant and vice versa. Miftah Ismail despite owning Candyland
could not sweeten the bitterness of the funding fathers (IMF) who
have rejected the budget outright. They want Pakistan to provide
a credible revenue plan and en block cancellation of all subsidies
before knocking at their door for a staff-level agreement. Miftah
can recite this verse by Mir Taqi Mir to vent his frustration: Bar
bar us ke dar pe jata hoon; Halat ab iztaraab ki si hai. The other
day Miftah was addressing some gathering, a part of which I
heard on my TV screen. He was sounding so pessimistic and
literally frightened of the economic turmoil leading to a possible
default in the coming days that even Cassandra would have
blushed listening to him.

It was outrageous to see Marriyum Aurangzeb a few days earlier

on TV gesticulating with two fingers and vocalising the stress with
a look of amazement on the sum of rupees two thousand for the
poorest of poor as targeted subsidy in lieu of the unprecedented
hike in the cost of fuel, gas and electricity which will bring a
tsunami of inflation pretty soon. But then the government has
relied on the recipe of Faraz: Ye bhi to ek andaz e ilaj e ghum e jan
hai; Ai chara garo dard barha kyon nahi daitay. Ghalib has put the
same thought somewhat more elegantly: Ishrat e qatra hai darya
mai fana ho jana; Dard ka hadh sai guzarna hai dawa ho jana.

There are only a few figures that are sufficient to reveal the
financial health of our country. If memory serves me right, I
haven’t seen a balanced budget as yet. The only question is: how
big is the deficit this time? On a lighter note, let me quote what an
ex-US president, Ronald Reagan, had to say while commenting on
his deficit budget: “It has grown big enough to take care of itself.”
But we are not America that can print the dollars which is the fiat
power for running the economy of the world, especially the Third
World countries also known as dollarised nations. Pakistan is
definitely a front runner.
The total external debt of Pakistan has swelled around $139
billion. I can’t envisage our country repaying this even after
decades from now. The best any government can do is to tighten
its belt and consequently bridge the trade gap between exports
and imports. But unfortunately our exports and growth are
driven by our imports, and nobody has the wisdom and capacity
to change this paradoxical situation in the presence of an elite
capture in Pakistan. Miftah presented a budget without being
booed and hissed due to the absence of any Opposition. So his
budget speech was a scathing criticism of Imran Khan and PTI,
and a grotesque glorification of PDM led by PML-N as the saviours
of Pakistan. What a mockery of democracy in Pakistan!

It is shameful to see piddling amounts being earmarked for

education, health, water, transport, electricity and many other
social sectors requiring urgent development and reforms.
Pakistan can never come out of the vortex of debt until the fault
lines of economy are earnestly identified and dealt with a sense of
direction and determination. Makeshift measures won’t do unless
the structural changes are made after clearing the heap of debris.

A regime change replacing PTI by PDM is no remedy. Nothing can

work unless the model of the economy is aligned with the
priorities of the country. It reminds me of this rubai (quatrain)
from Omer Khayyam translated in English by Edward Fitzgerald:
But helpless Pieces of the Game He plays; Upon this Chequer-
board of Nights and Days; Hither and thither moves, and checks
and slays; And one by one back in the Closet lays.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18th, 2022.

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Good news for expats
tribune.com.pk/story/2362040/good-news-for-expats-1

June 17, 2022

Islamabad has submitted its instrument of accession to the Hague

Conference on Private International Law

Pakistan is joining the Apostille Convention which will put an end

to the costly and time-consuming process of running around to
get several types of official documents attested before they can be
used abroad. Islamabad has submitted its instrument of accession
to the Hague Conference on Private International Law and is now
awaiting approval from the intergovernmental organisation,
which is expected to only be a formality. Signatories to the
convention allow all public documents — including marriage,
birth and death certificates and most education documents — that
have been attested in line with the requirements of the treaty to
be used in any of the other 122-and-counting signatory states.
In India, which has a similar legal system, submission and receipt
of documents for attestation can take as little as a few minutes for
certain documents that can be submitted to the Ministry of
External Affairs online, and many other documents can be
processed either directly or through approved agents within a few
days. This eliminates the running from pillar to post in local
government offices, federal offices, and then foreign missions to
get documents legalised — the formal term for attestation.

Overseas Pakistanis and others with ties to Pakistan who live

abroad, or those intending to work or study in several member
countries, most notably Saudi Arabia, the EU, UK, US and Canada,
will be the main beneficiaries, since the drawn-out process will
still be in place for countries that are not Apostille members,
including the UAE and Qatar. Foreigners would similarly benefit
by not having to run around at their local and federal government
offices and traveling to Pakistani embassies and consulates, which
can be especially time-consuming in larger countries or those
where Pakistan has a limited diplomatic presence. Remember we
only have embassies in about 87 countries, some of which could
be on the chopping block as a cost-cutting measure.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18th, 2022.

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Politics of regression
tribune.com.pk/story/2362038/politics-of-regression

June 17, 2022

The violent showdown was quite unbecoming of democratic

norms

Bye-election for a National Assembly seat on Thursday in Karachi

exposed the fault-lines of political turmoil. A low turnout, abject
discrepancies on the part of ECP and resort to vandalism and
violence made it an objectionable affair. Karachiites were on the
receiving end as political parties contesting the bye-polls in NA240
were too uncaring for civil liberties, and were at each other’s
throats for reasons of exigency. The duel also brought to the fore
the inherent lapses in security, as the law-enforcement agencies
seemed struggling to maintain order for the day. Though the
MQM-P managed to retain its seat, which had fallen vacant due to
the death of its legislator, it was no less than a bizarre electoral
exercise that lacked enthusiasm and a sense of political rejoinder
from the masses at large.

The violent showdown was quite unbecoming of democratic

norms. Moreover, lowest turnout in the thickly-populated
constituency of Korangi was a point of concern and reflected on
the dismal role of popular participation in the representative
decorum. Last but not least, the fact that the PTI, which had won a
lion’s share in 2018 general elections, had boycotted the vote was
another factor that took off heat from the show. So was the
absence felt of Jamaat-e-Islami, which too has apparently lost
interest in Karachi’s electorate. The rise of pro-militancy outfits
such as TLP, and that too as the second biggest vote grabber in an
era of polarisation, has some lessons to be drawn. Karachi, usually
counted as a paradigm of liberal and progressive thoughts, very
much carries the phenomenon of slipping into regressive politics
as ethnic and sectarian elements rule the roost. So was evident in
NA240 as major national parties including the PTI, PML-N and
PPP were missing from the contest and the show was open to
parochial considerations.

The victory margin of less than a 100 votes to the MQM-P

candidate will surely be contested head-on. This might lead to
more anarchy, and further the sense of otherness prevalent in the
society. It is mandatory for all political parties to rewrite a code of
conduct and strictly adhere to it for the sake of public peace. This
is where the mantle of electoral supremacy rests.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18th, 2022.

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Ready for rain?
tribune.com.pk/story/2362042/ready-for-rain

June 17, 2022

An honest analysis would be that nothing radical has been done

and Karachi will struggle to stay afloat

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has reported that

monsoon rains will hit Karachi relatively early this year as initial
showers are expected during the last week of June. It is also
predicted that rainfall will be far greater than last year’s record-
breaking monsoon rains owing to climate change. There will also
be greater destruction than what Karachiites witnessed a year
ago, unless officials have learnt from past mistakes and have since
acted accordingly.

As the threat looms over the urban populace, we are forced to ask:
is Karachi ready for the predicted onslaught of heavy monsoon
rainfall? Can the financial capital of the city bare another
devastating event in the midst of economic recession? Are the
vulnerable truly protected? Town planners claim that urban
flooding is a direct consequence of a weak drainage system whose
arteries remain blocked either by mountains of garbage or by
illegal construction. To ensure that last year’s flooding doesn’t
repeat itself, KMC along with other organisations has been
working for the past year on clearing these drainage lines by
demolishing shanties and buildings, and covering up strips of
open drainage. Only time will tell if this has indeed been a
worthwhile exercise carried out with sincerity and we hope that it
will reduce the damage that is about to ensue. However, the
initiative has mostly been carried out in posh areas of the city. The
65% of Karachi’s population that live in large slums have been
horribly neglected. They are at risk of being ravaged by severe
flooding that could possibly lead to many casualties.

The relevant authorities must develop SOPs for those living in

these highly populated areas and ensure that safety precautions
are being taken to minimise damage. Other companies are yet to
issue announcements in this regard as broken live wires remain a
serious threat. An honest analysis would be that nothing radical
has been done and Karachi will struggle to stay afloat. But we
pray for the best.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18th, 2022.

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Slow cancellation of the future
tribune.com.pk/story/2362034/slow-cancellation-of-the-future

June 17, 2022

The writer is an Islamabad-based TV journalist. He tweets

@FarrukhKPitafi and can be reached at [email protected]

At the outset, you will have to forgive this writer for a few
underlying assumptions. The first assumption is that you are
equally shocked by the developments of the previous decade. The
second that, like me, you too cannot account for the broader
contexts of the 2010s despite being mentally healthy and sober
throughout the decade. That is to say, you can recall what you
were doing and what was happening in your lives, but you could
not relate to the rapidly changing realities around you or figure
out your role in them. I call it the sleepwalk through history. And
the final assumption: that you are as curious about the reasons
behind this numbness, these shocks, and that to get to the bottom
of it all, you are ready to read some books and watch a few
documentaries. If any of these assumptions are wrong, then…
well…wrong number. You are free to leave this piece and do
something better with your life. But before you leave, please note
that it seeks to warn the reader against more shock.

To understand the shocks and the heartaches of the 2010s, you

have to understand the impact of the great recession of 2008. As
corporate greed in the derivative market wreaked havoc with the
happy bubble of economic well-being, societies worldwide
witnessed the slow evaporation of a host of bright possibilities.
And yet, as the political world realigned to make the victory of the
first African American president (radical times require radical
solutions) for a heartbeat, it felt like things would be okay. That
the big boys had stepped in, and they would right the societal
wrongs and punish those responsible for this mess. But that was
not to be. In his autobiographical account of the formative phase
of his presidency, A Promised Land, President Obama elaborates
on the fights and struggles he had to endure to right the ship. But
at that time, the only accounts available were books like Bob
Woodward’s Obama’s wars, where the author recollects the
dramatic transformation in Obama’s demeanour after his first
national security briefing, who until then was charged and
ebullient: “When Obama returned, his demeanor was different.
He was more reserved, even aggravated.” Even to his inner circle
that had been forbidden to participate in this meeting on the Bush
administration’s orders, it must have looked like the bad guys had
got to him. To the distressed world outside, it must have further
exacerbated the paranoia.

“I’m inheriting a world that could blow up any minute in half a

dozen ways, and I will have some powerful but limited and
perhaps even dubious tools to keep it from happening,” Obama
later remarked to a close confidante. To their credit, he and his
administration did what they could to revive and stabilise the
economy and create as many jobs as possible. But they were jobs
created during a crisis, often subpar and much less paying. It led
to the gig economy where a person had to do more than one job to
make as much money. Now imagine if you are growing up in this
age.

In fairness, the world Obama inherited showed the courtesy not

to blow up until he was out of presidency even though it showed
the early willingness to do so in 2011-12 (tea party movement),
2014 (Russian annexation of Crimea, rise of the racist far-right in
Europe, and Modi’s shocking victory in India), and 2015 (Brexit).
But it did blow up in 2016 when Trump was thrust into the most
influential public office in the world with a sledgehammer.

After that, many of us started paying some heed. But once again,
to the symptom, not the malaise. To the explosions but not the
undercurrents resulting from what the late internet critic and
thinker Mark Fisher called the “slow cancellation of the future”.
Fisher, who killed himself in January 2017 battling with
depression, has written some thought-provoking books. The one
whence the above phrase came is called Ghosts of My Life:
Writings on Depression, Hauntology and Lost Futures. There can’t
be a better explanation of what went wrong in the pre-Trump
days.
The fact remains that generations do not pause growing up and
old just because of the adverse economic circumstances. But to
the generation brought into this world in the time of prosperity,
the phantom-like disappearing of the realisable dreams must
have stung badly. Then unlike ours, this generation grew up in the
age of high-speed internet and omnipresent screens. They
connected and turned morose with every passing day. We had
seen this phenomenon before. Where people with broken dreams
turned inward. In Japan, many heartbreaks resulting from the
economic slowdown had already turned a significant part of its
young population into Otakus. An Otaku is a shut-in who, in most
cases, refuses to join the adult world or leave their parent’s home
and spends most time in the fantasy world of Manga and Anime.
Peter Pan syndrome, through and through.

I have mentioned Matt Alt’s brilliant book, Pure Invention: How

Japan’s Pop Culture Conquered the World, more than once in this
space. Another book builds this connection and shows how this
frustration and the toxicity of the resulting internet subcultures
are tearing our world apart these days. The book is called It came
from something awful, by Dale Beran. The internet phenomenon
of the 4chan, 8chan, and 8kun message boards and how they gave
rise to both alt-right and Antifa are all dealt in the most
perceptive way possible in these books.

There are other books too. Controversial politician JD Vance’s

Hillbilly elegy and Alie Hochschild’s Strangers in their own land,
but the message is simple. Policymakers seldom take all variables
into account, and the mental health issues resulting from the slow
burn of an economy in distress are one of them. Today’s
generation has already gone through the trauma of the Covid
lockdowns and economic downturn. One more global recession or
collapse resulting from the inflationary pressures will destroy
another generation. Now that one sees the growing demands of
the IMF from Pakistan without considering the distress it may
cause and the global economic outlook, one shudders. World
leaders, especially the conscientious ones, should know that wars,
ambitions and petty fights are less important than the mental
safety of the current generation in this age of global hyper-
connectivity. We must put an end to the slow cancellation of the
future.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18th, 2022.

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Why does CPEC need support?
tribune.com.pk/story/2362030/why-does-cpec-need-support

June 17, 2022

The writer is a public policy analyst based in Lahore. She tweets

@durdananajam

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a flagship project

of the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI], launched in 2015. The
multibillion project reflects China’s economic progress which it
wishes to share with its neighbours. Several commentators refer
to it as a ‘game changer’ due to its plan to connect up a vast arch
of regional markets from China to South and West Asia, the
Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
CPEC aims to promote economic development and inter-regional
connectivity, partially achieved with infrastructural, industrial
and socio-economic development projects, especially in Sindh and
Balochistan. Due to its strategic location, Gwadar is already
transformed. Besides the infrastructure developments, Gwadar, as
one of CPEC’s economic zone, is witnessing multiple social welfare
programmes, such as Gwadar Women’s Employment
Development Centre, aimed at skills enhancement and poverty
alleviation among women. Furthermore, the planned roads,
health facilities, schools and middle and small-scale business
opportunities will empower the local communities and eventually
make them self-sufficient. And, in collaboration with China’s
Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the CPEC Authority has so
far installed 3,000 solar panels at Nighori Ward in Gwadar to
provide ‘free-of-cost’ electricity to local users.

Beyond Balochistan, Pakistani and Chinese companies have set up

healthcare projects like a 200-bed ICU for accidental emergencies
at PIMS in Islamabad. Several NGOs are also active in
environmental programmes geared towards combating global
warming and promoting Pakistan’s green development agenda. In
the technology domain, Pakistan and China’s leading technology
companies are in joint efforts to start manufacturing mobile
phones in Lahore, which will immensely reduce the prices of
mobile phones. Local companies and individual farmers are also
introducing new and cheap technology to improve agriculture – a
sector that employs almost 40% of the population, mostly women.

During his first speech to the National Assembly, PM Shehbaz

Sharif said his government would work with China to eliminate
all obstacles impeding the CPEC progress. Beijing also expressed
readiness to work with the new government to accelerate CPEC-
related projects.

The responsibility to support CPEC also falls on the people of

Pakistan from all walks of life. The general public’s goodwill is an
essential precondition for maximising CPEC benefits. Therefore,
there is a need for pragmatism and enthusiasm from all the
stakeholders.

We must know that CPEC is not a ‘China-sole’ sensation but a

massive investment from both Pakistan and China. More so, many
other countries – the US, the UK, Germany, Canada, the
Netherlands, etc – are also investing considerable resources in the
mega project. Reports indicate that close to 18 countries have so
far invested in the Allama Iqbal Industrial City in textile, IT,
agriculture, and science and tech sectors. Therefore, the
propaganda against CPEC should be tackled through civic
education about the essence of the initiative. Media should also
highlight the project’s achievements to the ordinary people, offer
intelligible discourse about the related developments, and make
future projections.

Academic institutions have a significant role in mainstreaming

CPEC in research and all academic disciplines. Research on BRI
should be available to the public for awareness. Civil society
organisations from Pakistan and China can also contribute to the
sensitisation initiatives about CPEC. Anti-CPEC elements need to
be addressed peacefully and through dialogue and adult literacy.
Religious and cultural leaders must be engaged to clarify the
initiative’s goals. Local communities in the host province must be
involved in the decision-making process, and it should be
demonstrated to them that the developments in the region are for
their prosperity. All participatory approaches and development
communication theories ought to be employed to allay the local
communities ‘fears’ – if they exist.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 18th, 2022.

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