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ICEP# Dawn Analysis

DAWN EDITORIALS PLUS OPINIONS

Dated: Tuesday 30 June, 2020

BY: ICEP Analysts M.Usman and Rabia Kalhoro.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Note:
We pick out Opinions from different Newspapers
related to:

#Competitive Exams
#Essay Writing
#Current Affairs
#Historical episodes
#Pakistan Affairs
# General Knowledge
# Global Issues
# Geopolitics
# International Relations
# Foreign Policy

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

PSX attack
AFTER a considerable lull(interval of calmness), the spectre of urban terrorism
returned with full force to Karachi on Monday morning, as Baloch separatist
militants stormed the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

Key Points to be noted:

▪ Accordingg to security forces, four attackers were neutralised(killed, knock
off) while three security guards and a police officer laid down their lives in the
line of duty.
▪ The proscribed(prohibited, criminal)Balochistan Liberation Army has
reportedly taken responsibility for the act of terrorism, while security officials
in Sindh — as well as the country’s foreign minister — have accused India for
activating ‘sleeper cells’ (hiding place for staying)in Pakistan.

Critical Analysis of the Incident:

The symbolism of the target cannot be missed. The PSX represents the beating heart
of economic activity in the country’s commercial capital, and is located in an area
where the State Bank of Pakistan, the Central Police Office, and other major public
and private institutions are based. Clearly, hostile actors are trying to send the
message that the country’s economic nerve centre is vulnerable. However, the police,
as well as private security guards, must be lauded(praised) for their bravery and
alacrity(eagerness), which may have prevented a bigger disaster. Security officials
say the attackers came with food and water, indicating that they may have intended to
take hostages(captive) and prolong the PSX siege(blockade). The Sindh Rangers
chief says the assault bears a similarity to the November 2018 assault on the Chinese
consulate in Karachi, in which BLA attackers were also involved. Moreover,
speaking after Monday’s incident, he said that Indian intelligence was developing a
‘nexus’ between Baloch and other separatists, as well as elements loyal to MQM-
London, adding that the violence targeting Rangers personnel in Sindh earlier this
month, believed to have been carried out by Sindhi separatists, was part of the same
agenda. The city’s police chief also pointed out that law enforcers had received
advance intelligence reports of a possible attack on PSX.

Karachi has witnessed a large number of bombings and other acts of terrorism,
mostly orchestrated(organized) by jihadi and sectarian militants, over the past two
decades or so. This is apart from the ethnic, political and sectarian killings that
destroyed the city’s peace from the mid-1980s onwards. Too many precious lives —
of law enforcers as well as citizens — have been lost, pushing the city towards a
vortex(hub) of violence. From Monday’s attack, as well as other smaller-scale
incidents over the past few days, it is clear that attempts are being made to destabilise
the metropolis.

Recommendations: Security forces must remain alert and step up intelligence-

gathering activities to thwart(prevent) the plans of subversive(insurgent)elementss.
The possibility that hostile states are looking to stir up trouble in Pakistan at a time
when the geopolitical temperature in the region is rising cannot be discounted,
which is why security organs must be proactive. Moreover, if the reports that
different separatists and political militants have joined forces are true, then the state
must adapt its counterterrorism policy accordingly.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Affordable housing
THE World Bank will support the Punjab government develop a housing policy to
improve access to affordable housing for low-income groups as part of the province’s
broader post Covid-19 economic recovery effort. Although provision of low-cost
homes has been the cornerstone(fundamental point) of the PTI’s election
manifesto,

Key Points:
▪ Housing and infrastructure development have acquired greater importance in
the wake of an economic recession as the revival of construction activity, once
the pandemic subsides, can help drive growth in 40 or so connected industries.

▪ According to some estimates, the construction of 100,000 housing units in

the country can increase GDP by around 2pc.
▪ Additionally, the construction industry is the largest employer of skilled and
unskilled workers after agriculture. Thus, promotion of a sustainable housing
supply will help mitigate risks like climate change, public health and
inadequate infrastructure investment arising from unplanned urban expansion.
The project can help the province find housing solutions to address barriers on
the supply and demand side of the housing value chain, and serve as a model
for other provinces.

Details:
Increasing supply of affordable housing for low- to middle-income groups has been
on top of the agenda of almost every political party since the 1970s. Successive
governments — both federal and provincial — have not only invested in public
housing schemes but also have, from time to time, given policy and fiscal incentives
to attract private capital to low-cost housing. Nevertheless, housing shortages in the
country have grown and are now estimated to have reached 10m units. The PTI has
promised to build 5m housing units in its five-year term but is sure to miss the target
with zero houses built so far. However, the government expects the incentives it
announced as part of a construction package will kick-start building activity in
general and woo private investment in housing for low- to middle-income people in
particular. To encourage investment in low-cost housing, the government has also
set aside Rs30bn as subsidy in its budget. Additionally, the provinces have given
several tax concessions to builders and developers.

Way forward:
But these measures are unlikely to work unless a longer-term
multipronged(composed of multi section)strategy, which targets private
investments in affordable, low-cost housing solutions for different income groups, is
evolved. That will not only require restructuring of the incentive package but also
entail federal, provincial and local agencies implementing measures across the entire
housing value chain from access to land with basic infrastructure to planning and
building regulations, and construction and mortgage finance.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Human trafficking
Quick Notes:

Human trafficking is the trade of humans for the purpose of forced labour, sexual
slavery, or commercial sexual exploitation for the trafficker or others. This may
encompass providing a spouse in the context of forced marriage, or the extraction
of organs or tissues, including for surrogacy and ova removal.

Introduction:
PAKISTAN has been downgraded from ‘Tier 2’ to ‘Tier 2 Watch List’ in the 2020
Trafficking in Persons Report by the US State Department.

Key Points:
▪ Despite passing significant laws in 2018 — the Prevention of Trafficking in
Persons Act and the Prevention of Smuggling of Migrants Act — there is
clearly a long way to go in protecting the rights of victims of human trafficking
and smuggling. Law-enforcement officials may have been empowered with the
passage of these new laws, but the TIP Report notes that conviction rates
remained low when compared to the magnitude of the problem.
▪ Moreover, when it came to pervasive(pervading) issues such as bonded
labour, particularly in brick kilns, law enforcement and the government
continued to turn a blind eye to the plight of the victims.
▪ Last year, 19,954 trafficking victims were identified, showing a slight increase
from the previous year, but there was a decrease in victim-protection measures
offered by the government. Another significant finding in the report was that
undocumented and refugee men, women and children were particularly
vulnerable to falling prey to the human traffickers’ web of deceit.

Critical Analysis of the issue:

Human trafficking is a transnational issue, involving millions of people, yet Pakistan
remains one of only a handful of countries that is not a party to the Protocol to
Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and
Children.

Those who are sold false promises of employment, marriage, or a chance at a better
life in other countries, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, soon wake up
to that fact that they fell for a mirage(optical illusion) concocted( planned) by the
traffickers: they often find themselves tricked into a life of debt bondage, forced
labour or sexual slavery in their new countries; or they work in exploitative
conditions on a contract basis, with little to labour protection, and no means of
escape. There have also been instances where boys and men have been tricked or
coerced into joining armed movements abroad. The government clearly has a huge
issue to tackle.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Galwan Valley Clash

This article is based on “Galwan: Postscript to a tragedy” published

recently in The Hindu Newspaper recently. It talks about recent
confrontation between India and China troops on the Line of Actual
Control (LAC).

Recently, twenty Indian Army personnel, including the Commanding Officer of

16th Bihar Regiment, lost their lives at the hands of Chinese troops in the Galwan
Valley of Ladakh.

This was an unprovoked attack by the Chinese border troops on Indian soldiers,
after confirming the implementation of the de-escalation plan by the Chinese in
Galwan valley. The plan of de-escalation is based on a phased withdrawal of
troops to their respective predetermined ground positions, were decided on June
6 during the corps commanders-level talks.

The incident represents a watershed in India’s relations with China and marks the
end of a 45-year chapter which saw no armed confrontation involving loss of lives
on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

What is the issue?

▪ The Indian and Chinese armies are engaged in the standoff in Pangong
Tso, Galwan Valley, Demchok and Daulat Beg Oldie in eastern Ladakh.

o A sizable number of Chinese Army personnel even transgressed into

the Indian side of the de-facto border in several areas including
Pangong Tso.
o The actions on the northern bank of Pangong Tso are not just for
territorial gains on land, but enhanced domination of the resource-rich
lake.
▪ The stand-off at Ladakh’s Galwan Valley has escalated in recent weeks
due to the infrastructure projects that India has undertaken in the recent
years. India is building a strategic road through the Galwan Valley - close to
China - connecting the region to an airstrip.

o China is opposed to any Indian construction in the area. In 1962, a

stand-off in the Galwan area was one of the biggest flashpoints of the
1962 war.
▪ The border, or Line of Actual Control, is not demarcated, and China and
India have differing ideas of where it should be located, leading to regular
border “transgressions.” Often these don’t escalate tensions; a serious
border standoff like the current one is less frequent, though this is the fourth
since 2013.

o Both countries’ troops have patrolled this region for decades, as the
contested 2,200-mile border is a long-standing subject of competing
claims and tensions, including a brief war in 1962.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

▪ Reasons: The violent clash happened when the Chinese side departed
from the consensus to respect the LAC and attempted to unilaterally change
the status quo.

o It is part of China’s ‘nibble and negotiate policy’. Their aim is to

ensure that India does not build infrastructure along the LAC. It is their
way of attaining a political goal with military might, while gaining more
territory in the process.

What is the Line of Actual Control (LAC)?

▪ The LAC is the demarcation that separates Indian-controlled territory from
Chinese-controlled territory. India considers the LAC to be 3,488 km long,
while the Chinese consider it to be only around 2,000 km.
▪ The India-China LAC in Ladakh is an outcome of the territory illegally
retained by China after the 1962 conflict. The Chinese occupation of parts
of Aksai Chin is not supported by historical or legal documents.
▪ It is divided into three sectors:

o the eastern sector which spans Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim

o the middle sector in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh
o the western sector in Ladakh
▪ The Galwan Valley area comes under Sub Sector North (SSN), which lies
just to the east of the Siachen glacier and is the only point that provides
direct access to Aksai Chin from India.
How to Deal with a Problem?
▪ Devolution of comprehensive China strategy: Strong political direction,
mature deliberation and coherence are keys to handling the situation.

o The Army can make tactical adjustments and manoeuvres to deter the
Chinese, but a comprehensive China strategy and its determination

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

 should devolve on those tasked with national security policy in the
highest echelons of the Government of India.
▪ Strategic communication: The responsibility of effective strategic
communication too rests with political leadership. It is important to perceive
the signals of transgressions on a serious note and adopt adequate strategy
with clear instructions for forces.
▪ Clarification on LAC: India should take the initiative to insist on a timely
and early clarification of the LAC. Pockets of difference of alignment as
perceived by each side have to be clearly identified and these areas
demilitarised by both sides through joint agreement pending a settlement of
the boundary.

o Diplomatic channels must continue to be open and should not be

fettered in any way because their smooth operability is vital in the
current situation.
▪ Scaling down of military contact: India must stand resolute and firm in the
defence of territory in all four sectors of the border. Contacts between the
two militaries through joint exercises and exchanges of visits of senior
Commanders should be scaled down for the foreseeable future.
▪ Counterbalance for the outside world: India’s leverage and balancing
power within the Indo-Pacific and the world beyond stems from its strong
democratic credentials, the dynamism of its economy, its leading role in
multilateral institutions.

o The strategic advantage of its maritime geography is an asset

possessed by few nations, and which must be deployed much more
effectively to counterbalance the Chinese ingress into this oceanic
space that surrounds us.
▪ Reconsider RCEP engagement: The time has also come for India to
reconsider its stand on joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership.

o If India is to disengage from economic involvement with China, and

build the capacities and capabilities it needs in manufacturing, and in
supply chains networks closer home, it cannot be a prisoner of the short
term.
o It is time to boldly take the long view in this area as also on its South
Asia policy.

Conclusion
The events in Galwan Valley should be a wake-up call to many of India’s Asian
friends and partners enabling a high-resolution envisioning of Chinese
aggressiveness. This is also an opportunity for India to align its interests much
more strongly and unequivocally with the U.S. as a principal strategic partner and
infuse more energy into its relations with Japan, Australia, and the ASEAN.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Closure of DFID
Arif Azad June 30, 2020

The writer is a public health consultant.

Role and purpose of Department For International Development

The Department for International Development is a United Kingdom government department

responsible for administering overseas aid. The goal of the department is "to promote
sustainable development and eliminate world poverty". DFID is headed by the United
Kingdom's Secretary of State for International Development.

Introductory background

ON June 16, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the merger of the
Department For International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and
Commonwealth Office (FCO) in parliament. The suddenness of the decision in the
midst of the global pandemic took everyone by surprise, and criticisms of the merger
came thick and fast from across the political spectrum, including former prime
ministers Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron, as well as the aid sector,
which had been left out of the loop.

Criticism on the merger of DFID : only hope for eradicating social issues
derailed

Most criticisms revolved around the fact that dissolution of Britain’s widely known
DFID would damage countries’ hard-won standing abroad and derail (sabotage,
obstruct) its

• independent work on poverty alleviation,

• gender empowerment,
• health and social protections in the world’s poorest regions.

DFID’s role in shaping debates on development was crucial in terms of providing a

necessary balance to the neoliberal tilt of the World Bank.

In line plans of DFID reabsorption into FCO : Marie Trevelyan flipped the coin
in the favour of merger

The merger, however, was long in coming. Johnson had dropped strong hints of
DFID’s reabsorption into the FCO since he was foreign secretary. Andrew
Mitchell, former secretary of state for international department from 2010-2012, had

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

previously foiled the FCO’s inroads into DFID’s domain. However, with the recent
appointment of Anne-Marie Trevelyan, an ardent (committed) Brexiteer, in the
post, the dice was fully loaded against DFID. Her attachment to the cause of
international development was suspect as evidenced in her oft-stated ‘charity begins
at home’ mantra, and her approach dovetails (join closely together) with Johnson’s
long-held view of DFID as ‘a cashpoint in the sky’.

DFID was one of the crowning achievements of the Labour Party, which pledged
when in the opposition in the early 1990s to separate British aid from perceived
associations with foreign, trade or defence policy, in response to the Pergau Dam
arms-for-aid scandal. Until then, the FCO had exercised considerable sway over aid
distribution in pursuit of its policy objectives.

The merger will have adverse effects on international development.

Initiative of DFID laid in 1997; Clare Short made it grew and flourished

In 1997, Blair’s government established DFID as an independent department,

with the formidable Clare Short as first sectary of state for international
development. Under her, DFID grew and flourished in influence, reach and
intellectual rigour; she shifted the focus to no-strings-attached aid. This went hand in
hand with Labour’s foreign policy under the late foreign secretary Robin Cook. In
time, DFID become a world leader in international development thought and
policy. It directed aid into long-term poverty alleviation, education and health
programmes, transforming millions of lives worldwide.

Controversy of Commonwealth Development Corporation Group : scrutiny of

taxpayer’s money approved in House of Commons Committee

Under May’s government, DFID’s dilution gathered greater steam, with a substantial
part of the budget diverted to other departments. A large chunk of aid money is being
channelled into the Commonwealth Development Corporation Group, which has
controversially invested funds into building a luxury hotel in Nigeria and a shopping
mall in Kenya. Well before Johnson’s shock announcement, baby steps towards
merger were in the works, with junior DFID officials seconded to the FCO and
country heads of its missions abroad placed under the thumb of ambassadors. In a
related move, the government has also hinted at dissolving the House of Commons
committee on international development, thereby removing any parliamentary
scrutiny of the use of taxpayers’ funds in the foreign aid budget.

Far reaching impacts of the merger of DFID into FCO : Pakistan as the prime
recipient of aid would be hard hit

Pakistan will be particularly hard hit, as DFID has been a major donor for its
government and civil society. This has, unjustifiably, made the country a target of
anti-aid stories printed in the highly influential British tabloids. In recent years, there
have been many negative stories about the alleged misuse of funds linked to the
Benazir Income Support Programme as well as Shahbaz Sharif. These politically and
ideologically motivated stories have been stoutly rebutted by DFID.

Ramifications of squeezed aid by FCO to Pakistan : major role in poverty

alleviation

DFID has made a huge difference to poverty alleviation, malnutrition and maternal
and child health, gender empowerment and education in Pakistan. With control over

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

funds passing into the FCO’s hands, development aid to Pakistan may see a
considerable drop. This development-harming aid squeeze, in the time of Covid-19
and IMF-directed austerity, will adversely affect the country’s sustainable
development trajectory.

Conservative-led dissolution of DFID shows Britain at its most insular : Concern

of British’s global image

With the FCO taking over DFID, future aid will increasingly become tied and
referenced to British interests. DFID’s singular contribution consisted in ditching
the concept of tied aid and introducing the idea of disinterested aid for poverty
alleviation and broader development goals. Where the Labour-inaugurated DFID
exemplified Britain’s outward and internationalist reach and ambitions, the
Conservative-led dissolution of DFID shows Britain at its most insular (isolated) ,
inward-looking worst. This has adverse implications for Britain, its image abroad as
well as the poorest of the poor worldwide.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

World must wake up to Iran regime’s extremism,
sectarianism
Arab News

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

The Middle East and the wider world had been at peace with Iran until the clerics
took power in 1979. They hijacked the popular uprising and implemented an
ideology that religious and sectarian tensions and wars. In addition, they deployed
militias and mercenaries to target different ethnic and religious groupings in the
region.

(Mercenaries fight for money or other forms of payment rather than for political
interests.)

( Militia, military organization of citizens with limited military training, which is

available for emergency service, usually for local defense.)

The Iranian regime’s project pivots around exporting its extremist sectarian
“revolution.” Or, to put it more bluntly, the Wilayat Al-Faqih regime has, since its
inception, sowed the seeds of terrorism and sectarianism in the Middle East. The
present-day rulers in Iran have embarked on a mission to spread chaos across the
region. For this objective, they have largely depended on armed militias that
receive money, weapons and training at military camps run by the regime’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Iran’s regime has established so-called cultural centers under the supervision of
the IRGC in several countries, including

• Sudan,
• Nigeria,
• Syria,
• Lebanon,
• Yemen, and
• Comoros.

These centers focus on creating and embedding terrorist cells and spreading the
regime’s hard-line Wilayat Al-Faqih ideology. The Iranian regime has also carried
out terror operations targeting diplomatic missions and dissidents (insurgent) both
inside and outside Iran.

Those who reflect on and study the history of post-revolution Iran will discover that
the regime is incapable of coexisting with others. They will also discover that, for
legitimacy, the regime depends on exporting chaos and instability to the outside
world. In addition, to maintain its support base it meddle (intervene) the affairs of
regional countries and finances terror operations within their borders.

The latest evidence proving Iran’s belligerent behavior came this month in a
statement by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He informed the UN
Security Council that the cruise missiles used to attack oil facilities and an
international airport in Saudi Arabia last year were of Iranian origin. Guterres
further confirmed that several items in US seizures of weapons and related materiel
in November 2019 and February 2020 were also of Iranian origin. The UN head
pointed out that the design specifications of these items strongly resembled those
produced by a commercial entity in Iran, while the items also bear Farsi logos.

This crucial testimony by the UN head is simply the latest in a vast catalogue of
evidence that confirms the Iranian regime’s hostility toward regional countries. Some
countries from outside the region are perplexed by Iran’s hostile policies, but Arab
countries, especially those in the Arabian Gulf, because of their geographical
proximity (vicinity) to Tehran, are fully aware of the nature and reality of the Iranian
regime.

The regime in Tehran, meanwhile, knows its survival depends on evading its
commitments to the Iranian people, including the long-suffering religious and ethnic
minorities in the country. The Iranian regime prefers to focus on the outside world or,
one might say, “escaping forward” to distract the Iranian people from the main cause
of their suffering — the regime itself.

One only needs to look at the dire living conditions of the Baloch, Kurdish and
Arab ethnic groupings inside Iran to see how the regime oppresses them
politically, socially and economically. Members of religious minorities, including
Baha’is, Sunnis and Christians, are also regularly targeted, with many tortured
and executed in regime prisons. Anyone comparing this to pre-revolution Iran will
get some idea of the true enormity ( atrociousness) of the suffering that much, if not
most, of the Iranian population has endured since the revolution.

The horrendous evidence on the ground from across the region has exposed the
Iranian regime’s long record of attempting to appear as the innocent victim and
helper of the oppressed. The Iranian regime has directly or indirectly been
involved in killing tens of thousands of innocent people in Syria, Iraq, Yemen,
ICEP# Dawn Analysis
 Lebanon and even inside Iran itself. It has displaced millions and sent IRGC
personnel to fight in Syria and Iraq.

With respect to the relationship between various terrorist groups and the
Iranian regime, it is widely known and well-documented that the regime hosted
Al-Qaeda commanders and members. It provided them with all the necessary help
to carry out attacks against the interests of Arab and Western countries. For example,
Tehran hosted Al-Qaeda leaders such as Abu Hafs Al-Mauritani, Saif Al-Adl,
Sulaiman Abu Gheith, Abul Laith Al-Libi, and Abul-Khayr Al-Masri, among others.
Iran also hosted members of Osama bin Laden’s family and is still hosting many Al-
Qaeda members who are wanted internationally.

The Iranian regime has the option to change and be part of the ongoing international
efforts to combat terror. This can only happen via action on the ground — speeches
and comments are not good enough. Tehran could undertake positive steps, such as

• halting its financing of militias and mercenaries,

• handing over Al-Qaeda leaders,
• ending its instigation ( agitation) of sectarian hatred and religious conflicts,
and
• integrating with the international community.

These steps could help Iran move away from its status as a sectarian revolutionary
regime and become a normal state.

The plain truth is that the leadership in Tehran refuses to believe, despite the
overwhelming evidence, that its popular domestic base is now declining, especially
among the country’s poor, who were once the primary supporters of the regime.
Outside Iran, meanwhile, the ongoing protests in Iraq and Lebanon against
Iran’s interference indicate the rapid decline of Iranian influence across the
region.

While regional countries are keen to promote peaceful coexistence, mutual respect
and good neighborliness with Iran and its people, they reiterate that they will no
longer remain silent on the Iranian regime’s terrible excesses.

For legitimacy, the regime depends on exporting chaos and instability to the
outside world.

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

All of us will pay a heavy price unless serious global action is taken to counter the
regime’s insatiable (unsatisfiable) thirst to shed blood and kill innocent people in
order to export its revolution. It is imperative that the Iranian regime dissolves its
sectarian militias and ends its deliberate provocations (stimulus) that have led to
sectarianism and antagonism in the region. However, if the regime is left to continue
with its provocations, they could lead to unspeakable consequences, not only for the
region’s countries, but for the international community in its entirety.

Stability and peace will only come about if the world wakes up to the grave and very
real dangers of terrorism and sectarian conflict that are instigated and enabled by the
Iranian regime.

• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies
(Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
ICEP# Dawn Analysis
Story of an end foretold
Arifa Noor Updated June 30, 2020

The writer is a journalist.

IT’S time for yet another prediction about the end of yet another government. These
doomsday predictions are the only constant in our otherwise uncertain polity, but this
time around the rumours/prophecies were set off by the party’s own men (and not the
women).

A minister threw down the gauntlet during the now-famous interview to the Voice of
America. Fawad Chaudhry (who has in the past also ruffled party feathers) didn’t just
lament the absence of the reforms that the PTI had promised but also claimed that the
infighting between senior leaders such as Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Jahangir Tareen
and Asad Umar had let non-political people take over the party.

Chaudhry’s outburst was followed by people such as Raja Riaz taking to public
forums ie television to complain of indifferent and uncaring cabinet members. And
then there was the ally, BNP-Mengal, which walked out of the alliance.

It is all happening so fast that it is surprising no one has yet quoted “Things fall apart,
the centre cannot hold”.

Even if Imran Khan decides to change the party culture, the rivalries will not
go away.

But without the benefits of sources which are readily available to the well-connected
everywhere in Pakistan, it’s hard to see most of the PTI’s internal woes as more than
the usual ankh macholi (blind man’s buff) of constituency politicians at an opportune
moment. In a system where parliament is fast losing its relevance, the backbenchers
too are finding it harder and harder to access prime ministers and their cabinets. The
PPP was perhaps a bit different but earlier Shaukat Aziz and then Nawaz Sharif and
now Imran Khan rarely reach out to the parliamentarian party. Lack of accessibility
has become routine.

For a constituency politician, this doesn’t help because he needs access to the power
corridors to maintain his position in his area. And the closer he gets to the election,
the antsier he is — halfway to what he assumes is the new election date is when
politicians mentally begin to think of campaign time and what the reaction of the
people will be when he goes around asking for votes. With two years of inflation, belt
tightening and little development spending, the constituency politicians are already
having sleepless nights.
ICEP# Dawn Analysis
Hence, the few chances they get to flex their importance, they make their resentment
loud and clear. As it is, the post-2008 political world has been harsh as opposition
parties no longer indulge in no-confidence moves, leaving them only with times
when legislation has to be passed to be heard. And the budget is particularly
important because of what it can and must offer to the parliamentarians. This is as
true of backbenchers as it is of allies. Where a backbencher such as Raja Riaz will
make his annoyance public once or twice and then go quiet, the allies will keep at it.
And this has been the process at work over the past few days.

But this is not to say the noises will not grow; they will as constituencies and voters
cannot be ignored for long.

The bickering between the king’s men is a different kettle of fish altogether.

Most parties experience something similar — local rivalries as well as competing

ambitions — but the PTI or rather Imran Khan doesn’t seem to discourage these from
becoming too public. For instance, Fawad Chaudhry, when he was information
minister, and the late Naeem ul Haque had a public Twitter spat, and later as the
science & technology chap, Chaudhry, in a light tone, commented on a show that the
Punjab chief minister should resign if he wasn’t being asked to leave. Ghulam Sarwar
too has made his opinion about the unelected advisers clear in an interview or two. In
a far subtler way, Shireen Mazari has criticised the Foreign Office, once or twice, as
an institution.

It’s not that rivalries don’t exist in other parties. It was reported more than once
during the previous government’s tenure that Chaudhry Nisar and Khawaja Asif were
not on speaking terms; or that Ishaq Dar wasn’t too popular with the party because he
was so close to Nawaz Sharif, but few spoke about these differences publicly. One
can assume that they didn’t do so because it would not be tolerated. But this is not the
case with the PTI.

This public airing of laundry has become part of the party culture. Even if Imran
Khan decides to change it, the rivalries will not go away. Partly because most leaders
benefit from divisions and rivalries; it provides a system of countercheck within the
party. What people are up to, and how well they are performing or not, and what they
may be saying out of earshot will make it back to the party head thanks to those
against them. This is how courts operate and so do our parties.

And for Khan this is perhaps more of a necessity than others. This is the first time he
has come to power and is now surrounded by people whom he doesn’t know how to
view. After all, many of them will desert him when he is out of power but he cannot
know for sure till he experiences a stint out of power. At the same time, he perhaps
will also take time to understand that party leaders constantly balance trust and
loyalty with the idea that relationships with dependable ones can turn sour — Benazir
Bhutto and Farooq Leghari are a case in point — while even those who aren’t trusted
(such as electables and allies) have to be kept happy. But such lessons take time and
the extent to which they are learned remains to be seen.

But in the meantime, it is perhaps hard to believe that these troubles by themselves
signal the beginning of the end of the PTI government. For that, a decision will have
to be made elsewhere, and once it is made, the power brokers will have to find a
willing ally in the opposition to execute it. And it is not necessary that when and if
this happens, it will be well-publicised.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Next item, Bihar and onward
Jawed Naqvi June 30, 2020

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

AS with Inspector Clouseau so with Prime Minister Modi; his adversaries can’t seem
to get the better of him, be they from across the border or domestic rivals. The attack
in Pulwama recoiled on the perpetrators as well as the planners. They sought to
question Mr Modi’s image of a leader with an impressive chest measurement. They
shored up that very image for him, military sinews and all.

The latest projectile from China apparently targeted Modi personally, credible
observers say. And look how he has sidestepped it Clouseau-like. The volley from
Beijing has landed instead in the opposition’s verandah, making Rahul Gandhi
wonder where he had gone wrong after reading the script nearly accurately.
Opposition allies deserted him.

Rahul was prescient with his Covid-19 warnings when the government was busy
derailing the opposition in Madhya Pradesh. But the news switched to more
rewarding muscular nationalism.

On the China border, it happened by sheer coincidence that the Indian troops
involved in the tragic scuffle belonged to the Bihar regiment even though several
soldiers and the commanding officer came from different provinces. The prime
minister praised the bravery of Bihar’s soldiers, while the opposition could only stand
by as he embraced the tragedy. Crucial Bihar elections are due later this year. One
can expect handy coincidences before the critical West Bengal elections next year
too.

Rahul Gandhi can be the spark to galvanise the opposition provided he

doesn’t seek the political high ground for himself.

According to the prevailing narrative, Muslim zealots ended up doing the job for
Modi while they were targeting his political gambit in Gujarat (2002) and
Muzaffarnagar (2014). Even Modi’s disastrous-looking demonetisation, a very
Clouseau-like shooting one’s own foot on most counts, turned into gold in Uttar
Pradesh, just a few weeks down the line. The opposition was stupefied. It is frustrated
but not agitated enough as the prime minister converts adversities into winning goals.
And this is where some soul-searching is perhaps missing.

Contrary to loud claims that Rahul Gandhi is unfit to lead the country, there are good
reasons why he could, but with a caveat. This is not the time for him to be thrust into

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

the leadership role. Nor was it so last year. It just so happens that the best in the pack
are not necessarily the most popular. They have to wait to be discovered.

Besides, there are the Scindias, too many of them, really, and Sanjay Gandhi’s
entrenched hangers-on among other interlopers — for example, the deputies who are
periodically bought over by the other side for a fee — to be dealt with. They have to
be excised as the party’s putrid flab as Indira Gandhi did in 1969 to make history. At
the same time, there can be no opposition unity with the Gandhis at the helm, not for
now, not in the next few years.

To be clear on facts, one must junk the cultivated myth of Gandhis as seething with
ambition. The unceasing claims are not supported by history. Take the day when
Sonia Gandhi unsuccessfully pleaded with her husband not to step into his mother’s
shoes when she was assassinated in 1984. Her instinct was he would be killed. With
him gone, the next five or six years saw her as the grieving widow seeking only the
inquiry into her husband’s assassination to be speeded up.

When Narasimha Rao demitted office he promoted his lightweight colleague Sitaram
Kesri the head of the minority Congress party. Kesri supported Deve Gowda’s
government and then Inder Gujral’s brief tenure, both backed by the left. India
missed by a whisker the prospect of Kesri shoring up Jyoti Basu as India’s only
communist prime minister Basu’s own party turned down the offer.

It is clear that Kesri was overthrown in a vicious coup led by a former minister the
Gandhis never ever trusted, and some other associates of business houses. Moreover,
Kesri was a backward caste Hindu from Bihar, as Modi is from Gujarat. Call it a
corporate-led upper caste coup. Did Sonia Gandhi order it? Kesri didn’t believe she
had. It was a cabal projecting Sonia Gandhi as the party president, for without her in
the lead there would be no Congress for them to feed off.Everyone knows the story of
the two opposition women who threatened to shave their heads if Sonia ‘the
foreigner’ became prime minister. There were threats to her life if she was sworn in.
That she counted the support of 272 MPs in her European accent cannot be seen as
ambition but more accurately as a ploy to humiliate her and the Congress under her
leadership.

This bating and manipulation of the Gandhis is still on. They’ve been stripped of
their security cover, which was mandated by an act of parliament. During Manmohan
Singh’s tenure, Sonia countered his runaway neoliberal economic policies by keeping
a cell of well-regarded advisers on social and economic issues. She was forced to
resign as MP for heading the National Advisory Council but she won the by-election
and pressed on with the only saving grace of the Manmohan tenure, the rural
employment guarantee scheme, which is serving the displaced and the poorest
victims of the coronavirus pandemic.What needs to be done? The Congress is at its
best when equidistant from power blocs. Indira Gandhi charmed Reagan and
Brezhnev alike. It must avoid needling Modi over China.

Rahul Gandhi can start with Bihar. He can be the spark to galvanise the opposition
provided he doesn’t seek the political high ground for himself. However, Gandhi has
a more difficult task — that of convincing his left partners to follow the principle of a
united front against fascism. Last year, the bright and inspirational Kanhaiya Kumar
cut into secular votes and enabled the Hindutva candidate to win in Bihar. If similar
errors can be prevented, no future surprises from Modi can undermine the restoration
of democracy in India.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

Waning superpower
Dr Niaz Murtaza June 30, 2020

The writer is a fellow with UC Berkeley and heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a

progressive policy unit.

RECENT weeks have been tough for America’s status as a superpower. The images
of police stations being burnt during race riots and the failure to provide global
leadership on Covid-19 or tackle the infection well even nationally have exposed its
growing fragilities. But these trends are merely the latest signs of a superpower in
decline, with Vietnam likely being the first sign. How long can the US remain a
superpower, and who or what will replace it?

States become superpowers by amassing vast amounts of technological, military,

political, economic and soft powers though the specific strategic mix and use of these
different power types vary case to case. But irrespective of strategy, the heavy costs
involved in being a superpower ultimately saps the powers of incumbent states and
allows competitors to displace them. So Britain’s strategy was to use its technological
power to undertake military conquests globally and acquire cheap supply of labour
and resources to further enhance its economic power. But the high military and
logistical costs of keeping colonies diverted funds from investments in economic and
technological powers and allowed the US, Germany and Japan to catch up.

The US strategy was different as it eschewed military conquests. Soft power was a
key component of its strategy as it projected the false image of being a benevolent
superpower willing to share the ingredients of its success with others who become
part of its prescribed global order. But in reality it established a global system that
largely benefited the US and its closest allies.

The US often resembles a clueless bystander.

The ingredients of its strategy at the level of values included the adoption of material
wealth as the main national goal which was to be achieved via technological means
while ignoring political and environmental concerns about equity and sustainability.
It co-opted some other states with short-term aid and others by helping dictators stay
in power to obtain the natural resources globally that it needed. Global financial
policies and institutions also did its bidding. Its vast global military infrastructure
underpinned the system’s security. Thus, it aimed to achieve the same returns as the
UK but sans the apparent ugliness of colonialism.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

However, one by one, the key ingredients of its superpower strategy crumbled even
after it defeated its arch-rival the USSR. The failure of its aid to ignite growth in most
developing states and the brutalities of its allied dictators turned global opinion
against it. The allure of its values has also faded as materialism has failed to provide
long-lasting peace of mind even to Western populations benefiting most from this
model. Also, the environmental unsustainability of materialism has become apparent
via climate change. The heavy cost of imperialism has caused huge (budget and
external) deficits and (public and private) debt and diverted investment for the future
in physical and human resources. This has allowed countries like Germany, Japan
and China to start catching up technologically and economically.

Finally, domestically, the ‘Washington Consensus’ on this model too has frayed as
conservatives led by President Donald Trump have become more wary of footing
imperialism’s costs without being willing to forego its benefits. Domestic political
gridlock has increased as the two parties become unable to develop consensus on
domestic and international issues.

So instead of being a global leader against emerging global threats, the US often
resembles a clueless bystander and even an active obstructionist, eg on climate
change. Its dominant ideology based on materialism and raw power increasingly
looks irrelevant. So, will it soon be replaced by another superpower like the UK was
80 years ago? But this is where the similarity with the UK ends. The US had
overtaken the UK economically decades before its final demise as a superpower after
World War II. China is still decades behind the US. Nor does its autocratic political
system make it an attractive global leader for many states. The EU matches the US
more closely democratically, economically and technologically, but is not a cohesive
political unit. Nor is a World War II-style knockout likely for the US given its huge
nuclear stocks.

Thus, the US will likely keep getting weaker and increasingly unable to play the role
of a global leader but have no other state able to replace it. Even as global problems
increase, the world will remain rudderless. The best solution would be the emergence
of a genuinely democratic global order not dependent on one state’s leadership. But
not only the US, even China, India, Russia, etc will oppose it. Thus, the world seems
headed for decades of turbulence due to a lack of a cohesive global order.

ICEP# Dawn Analysis

ICEP# Dawn Analysis