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The second wave of insurgencies in Pakistan has once again turned the spotlight on
the long-struggled issue of Pakistan. Three important lessons can be drawn from this
second wave of insurgencies.
To start with, it is evolving complexity of the security landscape of the country. A high
level ethnic insurgency in northern Pakistan and sectarian as well as militant
insurgencies in south-west and centre of Pakistan on the other hand continues to
pose threats to integration,stability,and peace of country. Since the US exit from
Afghanistan, Islamic state, Haqqani and TTP have also established new footprints in
the country and have established alliances with splinters of local militants.The latter is
more threatening seeing the social fabric and development landscape of Pakistan.
Second, the co-existence of violence and insurgency along with several coordinated
counter plans of security agencies of the country show that security-centric approach
is outdated. It is established principle, no doubt that kinetic measures have worked to
curb menace of extremism and terrorism in different parts of the world including
Pakistan. However, those measures did the work in partial and for short-run.
The above mentioned facts realities show that there is a need to change approach in
holistic way to ensure peace in the country.
Thirdly, after Iran-KSA rapprochement backed by China, it is the best possible time to
use systematic approach of foreign policy instead of cost-benefit rational approach.
Saudi-led investments in Gawadar, Reko Diq and other parts must be projected as
Foreign Direct Investment from a friendly nation. There is no need to import religion
and introduce Islamization of finance and investment. It can Baluchistan battle
ground for regional proxy war. We need to learn from the consequences of past.
Further more, the conflicts in Baluchistan and KP are of different nature and demand
merit accordingly. Since 18th amendment developments suggest that only political
engagement and financial inclusion with reconciliation can ensure long term peace in
Baluchistan. Repressive and cosmetic steps, development plans ,political engagement
and political engineering have failed to bring the Baluch into political and social
mainstreams. So, instead of offering short term and cosmetic positions of Sinjranis
and Kakars it is the best time to add political weight to the regional political parties in
democratic way. In case of KP, after merger FATA with KP, the province need projects
like 'Aghaz E Haqooq FATA'. With that, dialogue with the representatives of grieved
parties is required. So, instead of offering short term political benefits,
comprehensive socio-economic and socio-political efforts are need of time.
In this regard, peace and conflict studies offer certain measures to ensure sustainable
solutions of peace.
To begin with, state should prepare a comprehensive and coordinated plan. The plan
should include: credible local guarantees, concessions, confidence building measures
and gradual ensured withdrawal of frontier corps from several parts of KP and
Baluchistan.
Secondly, release of missing persons and compensation for families of those killed in
extra-judicial manner. As disjoint efforts will not work in these scenario. Reverence
and reparation at the same time cannot work. State has to understand that it has not
worked even in the past.
Thirdly, stake holders and institutions participating in these processes must be given
freedom to negotiate and ensure meaningful efforts. In this regard, security agencies
can make capacity building efforts of those localized stake holders and institutions.
Furthermore, military has to understand that it is low level insurgency that actually
produces spill overs and consolidates the high level insurgencies. To handle low level
insurgencies , hard kinetic measures are impossible solutions to work. Capacitive
approach of technical and skilled stake holders in necessary by the military to deal
with low level insurgencies. As the continued low level insurgencies push state into
defensive mode ,draw international attention, offer propaganda tool to hybrid player
and war monger India and stop the investment.
Furthermore, the Baloch people have concerns regarding CPEC such as: the flux of
human labour, threats to demographic balance, displacement, share of local people
in jobs and control of resources associated with it.
The fear of further oppression upon completion of CPEC is real and very much in
veins of Baloch people. furthermore, the due promise of Haqooq e Baluchistan
project of 2012 is still missing when it comes to control of Saindak copper-gold
mining project. The federal claim of RS27 billion investment after extension of lease
agreement twice since then is flawed. If it is still there, politics has the solution within
democratic norms and it lies in Council of Common interest. Fourth Proviso of article
154 says "The decisions of the Council shall be expressed in terms of the opinion of
the majority.". PDM in last 16 months offered the long awaited dream of consensus
among political parties on national issues and concerns. Sanity must prevail in this
regard.