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Outside-in Report
§ The rise of eIDs will lead to widespread adoption: Global eIDs and biometric
passport initiatives will require high verification standards. This can be seen in
both developed and developing areas; 22 of 54 African nations currently offer
biometric passports1
§ Banking to fuel industry growth: Growth in the market will also come from Features Primary Use Cases
financial services and payments; Liminal’s market projections expect biometric
solutions to see a 33% CAGR through 2025 across online banking1 § Motion detection § Customer onboarding
§ Image processing § Mobile payments
§ Sizeable and growing market opportunity: The global biometrics market TAM § Facial mapping § Social welfare benefits
is $22 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% through 20251 § Powered by datasets and AI § Account recovery
§ On-device flexibility § Online prescription orders
§ Threats from Big Tech: The tech giants are continuously expanding their
biometrics-verification capabilities (e.g., Face ID for Apple Wallet); however, their
business models typically restrict their ubiquity across the market, resulting in
sizable opportunities that liveness detection vendors can penetrate
Liminal Outlook
Technological evolution has given way to rising fraud and identity theft, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many industries to speed up their digital agendas.
With more activities now conducted remotely, identity verification with a liveness detection layer has become crucial in ensuring that it is the right person behind the screen.
We expect to see particularly high demand from entities in higher assurance industries, as well as those that face higher potential for fraud loss
Ability to combat 2D and 3D attacks Active vs. passive deployment Single-frame vs. multi-frame
Presentation attacks that enable identity fraud can At a high level, facial liveness detection is deployed in To determine liveness, a single-frame approach (e.g.,
come in 2D form (e.g., static photograph, dynamic two ways: active (e.g., requires user participation) or one image) or a multi-frame approach (e.g., sequence
video replay) or 3D form (e.g., static mask, dynamic passive (e.g., requires no user action), each of which of images) is typically employed vis-à-vis users’ front-
robot). Liveness detection is specifically used to has differing effects on friction and time-to-result facing device cameras
combat such spoofing techniques
The image analysis process that liveness technology relies on is either Relates to active / passive modes of deployment: Active checks tend to
Image processing require multi-frame approaches to detect liveness, whereas passive
(single frame vs. single-frame (e.g., selfie) or on multi-frame (e.g., sequence of images /
checks can employ a single-frame approach to process in near real-time;
multi-frame) video frames)
the difference can affect user experience and time-to-result
Powered by Quality and quantity of data matter: Volume, reliability, legitimacy, and
AI techniques like machine learning or deep learning are combined with
datasets and AI comprehensiveness of datasets combine with AI techniques (e.g., machine
public and private datasets to build liveness technology
technology learning) to build and train liveness technologies
Match face to
User goes to onboard / User takes selfie or User’s biometrics
authentication token or
authenticate uploads a photo accepted or rejected
photo ID
Additional assurance
Financial § Potential Fraud Loss: The higher the potential for consumer-related fraud
Government loss, the greater the need for multi-layered counterstriking methods like facial
Assurance Level (Ability to Prevent Spoofing)
Travel Services +
Services liveness detection
Fintech
Opportunity
Marketplaces +
Market Opportunity
Healthcare Sharing Payments § Government opportunities: Governments globally are instituting biometric
Economy programs which should require liveness to provide access to services; 22 of 52
African national are launching biometric passports and 100 million Brazilians
have already had their formal biometric identities created1
Gambling, Age-Restricted Crypto,
Gaming eCommerce Insurance § Financial services growth drives opportunity: Since the onset of COVID,
banks have seen a 200% increase in the amount of mobile and online
registrations, driving the need for efficient and secure onboarding solutions1
Financial Financial institutions require secure Part of high assurance onboarding: Facial
Services & solutions to fulfill KYC/AML obligations; recognition and liveness detection technology are
Fintech COVID-19 has increased reliance on eKYC part of stringent verification procedures that many
which requires remote proofing institutions have already implemented
Payments Rising fraud means that payment players Must balance fraud with customer UX:
will seek to mitigate risks by implementing Payments companies face high customer
more robust onboarding processes abandonment during onboarding; requiring
incentivization to avoid customer drop-off
Government Many governments are already comfortable Forced adoption: While there is a general distrust
Services with adopting biometric solutions as a of governments to store/manage PII, some
method of verifying/authenticating civilians governments have instituted compulsory biometric
and as part of new eID initiatives onboarding, which leaves citizens little choice in
their preference for adoption
Healthcare As digital health and telemedicine become Patient misidentification: Potential medical
more prevalent, the high friction industry will fraud-loss or patient misidentification risks can
need secure methods to identify patients impact quality care, making this a viable vertical for
patients receiving remote healthcare
Marketplaces & P2P marketplaces require trust on their Trust & Safety a major priority: Additional
Sharing platforms, not only at onboarding but for verification methods including liveness can help
Economy each physical interaction that a user may prevent P2P fraud and crime across ride-sharing,
perform via an online platform apartment-sharing, and gig economy services
KYC at customer onboarding High friction process: Businesses Strict regulations: Many regulators Faster and fewer data points: Secure
carry out time-consuming and costly around the world have implemented eKYC solutions now exist, which
KYC procedures, leading to high geo-specific KYC guidelines leverage users’ digital footprints to
customer abandonment rates reduce friction and paper-based process
Mobile payments Sophisticated hackers: Malicious Smartphone penetration: Mobile Better verification methods: Facial
actors now have more opportunities to devices are increasingly used to replace liveness detection that run on device
carry out identity fraud attacks (e.g., SIM credit cards, translating to higher cameras can ensure that the real and
swap attacks) volumes of online purchases right person is making the purchase
Social welfare benefits Welfare fraud: Fraudsters have been Weak existing infrastructure: Digital New tech and digital IDs: Governments
able to extort weaknesses and steal uptake across industries has broadened have started to adopt facial liveness
people’s identities to access benefits online data availability, and COVID-19 technologies as well as eIDs to ensure
that they otherwise would not quality for, has exposed government infrastructure that only those who are eligible can
including COVID-19 unemployment unequipped for pandemic volumes receive benefits
Online prescription orders Vulnerable digital infrastructure: Healthcare is a traditionally lagging Remote patient identification:
Forced digitization during COVID-19 industry: The industry is siloed due to Healthcare players are incorporating
opened doors for prescription fraud and patient privacy laws (i.e., HIPAA) and new, mobile processes to ensure that
unauthorized access to controlled drugs reliant on outdated record-keeping and only the correct patients have access to
patient verification methods authorized prescriptions
Account recovery and account Circumventing identity verification: Static verification: Scanning ID Adaptive Authentication: Ongoing, risk-
takeover Sharing economy platform users can documents and comparing a static selfie based authentication provides additional
bypass initial verification processes, is not fail safe in proving the life security at login beyond username,
loaning a car to a friend or third party presence of a verified individual password, and device authentication
Tailwind: Rising threat of fraud: Fraud has exponentially increased over the
1 2
past few years, leading businesses to drive demand for facial liveness
technologies that can help them securely verify customers without imposing
4 additional user friction
3
2 3 Headwind: Bias concerns: There has long been concerns over biases within
AI-operated biometric technologies, especially as they can lead to accuracy
gaps related to age, gender, skin tone, and more
“My perspective on biometrics technology has “Liveness detection and facial recognition “Big Tech companies are continuously adding
changed over time. I was initially hesitant to technologies have gotten much better and features around biometrics, so will always be
Eric Woodward do anything related to it because of Big easier. If not for the extra cost, I would not seen as threats. At the same time, if people
Senior Advisor, Socure Tech’s dominance, but I’ve learned over time even think of them as step-up authentication were really worried about Apple or Google’s
that biometrics has a lot of value and great methods anymore” dominance, then we wouldn’t be seeing so
market opportunities, like government" many investments into new vendors”
“I am personally shocked that there is not “From my understanding, single-frame “The hardest thing is to find high quality and
even more competition in the liveness liveness offerings are just not good enough. volume of datasets to train the liveness
Darren Bassman detection space. Our vendor choice was We do not want to partner with solutions that detection technology on. A sizeable amount
CEO, Microblink largely driven by pricing, as well as where we are less than what we or the market want” of data, time, and money are needed to build
saw useful expertise” this in-house. Whoever cracks the code to do
it all will have pricing power”
“When it comes to guaranteeing a person is “Friction from active liveness checks tends to “At the end of the day, vendors will need to
who they say they are, facial recognition and diminish the technology’s overall value. differentiate themselves based on accuracy of
Bill Spruill liveness check technologies are wonderful. Consumers want processes to be as smooth their tech algorithms, as well as time to result”
CEO, GDC They are the next best thing to actually doing as possible, so any small amount of friction
so in-person” can lead to a measurable drop-off – not just
from bad actors, but the good ones”
“There are a lot of challenges behind building “Right now, most solutions in the market are “There will be a lot of price risk because the
an in-house liveness detection product, and not excellent, and the best stuff is just okay” solutions are easily interchangeable. We’re
Adam Perold this can vary depending on how sophisticated seeing more vendors try to build more robust
CEO, Element you want it to be. The first 70% is easy, but and sticky products, making it hard for
the difficulty curve really steepens from there” customers to switch even if competitors
undercut them"
© Liminal Strategy Partners, LLC | Privileged and Confidential | December 2021
11
Liminal’s outlook on the facial liveness detection market
While the facial recognition and liveness detection market is currently dominated by a few select players, we do expect growing
demand to be met by new suppliers over time, some of whom will offer differentiated products that eliminate price compression
There are problems today Facial recognition and liveness detection technologies can act as an added security layer We believe there is strong demand for
that facial recognition and against anti-spoofing and fraudulent attacks that are present across almost every single facial recognition and liveness detection.
liveness detection can help industry, the strongest opportunities exist in government, financial services,
solve Fintech, payments, healthcare, and eCommerce Current supply in the market is being
1
met by a select few solution
There is long-term demand The market TAM for biometrics is $22 billion in 2021 and rising at a 13% CAGR . providers, whose facial recognition and
for facial recognition and Key use case opportunities exist across account opening, payment initiation, account liveness detection products are
liveness detection takeover protection, access to government services, and prescription drug refill relatively similar and interchangeable.
As a result, there is price compression
The market for facial Relatively low barriers to entry, minor product differentiations, and strong in the market
recognition and liveness competition have led to price compression in the biometrics market. Businesses go
detection is elastic for the solution that is deemed the “best bang for their buck,” translating to cheap and fast Companies focused on facial
recognition and liveness detection
We expect to see Challenges from Big Tech and price compression will lead to near-term consolidation in should look to differentiate themselves
consolidation in the the biometrics market; we expect to see market activity and consolidation in the next by developing a low-to-no friction
biometric market 12-18 months product that can accurately detect
spoofing attacks as quickly as possible
We expect to see
companies focused on facial Digital transformations taking place across enterprise-related verticals will open-up To expand market presence, vendors
recognition and liveness windows for more cybercrime and fraudulent attacks. This is particularly salient for those must secure customers across financial
detection to sell to with high assurance use cases yet face high potential for fraud loss services, Fintechs, governments,
enterprises healthcare, and eCommerce
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© Liminal Strategy Partners, LLC | Privileged and Confidential | December 2021