2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference (PEOC02012), Melaka, Malaysia: 6-7 June 2012
A Numerical Method For Calculating The
Loss Of Life Of Power Transformers
*
M.T. Askari1 , M.Z.A. Ab. Kadir, 1. Jasne
IDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran, 1,2,3Depnent of Electrical &
Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia,
Abstract-Temperature, especially the hot spot
temperature (HST) and top oil temperature (TOT),
has played the important rule and became the most
efective factor in determination of the insulation life
of the transformer. The prediction of HST and TOT is
very importnt for estimating the loss of life (LOL) of
the transformer in power system. Therefore, an
accurate technique is needed for solving the thermal
models. This paper presents a numerical method
which can accurately calculate the HST and thus
provides an efective evaluation of LOL of the
transformer. An altenative solution for solving the
thermal model is proposed in this work and results
are compared with the actual temperature, measured
by iber optic sensors and placed on the 30MVA
power transformer.
Kwords:Hot Spot Temperature;Loss of Lfe of
the Transformer; Electrical transformer
I. INTRODUCTION
Overheated in the transformer's winding can be
occurred because of overloading for short duration
time or installing the additional transformer for a
long time. In this case thermal conditions of the
transformer have to predict, whether the transformer
can tolerate this overheated depend on loading,
ambient temperature, and cooling systems or not[I].
Forecasting transformer's temperature accurately
makes it possible to ully utilize the capacity of
existing transformer. Hence, utilities could save
millions of dollars by using a model that allows them
to predict these values accurately enough to achieve
even a 2% to 3% increase over limits established
using traditional methods. In addition, prediction of
the temperature of the transformer successully and
accurately can be used for maximum transformer's
loading under diferent loading conditions, ambient
temperature, and various type of cooling[2].
Electrical transformers include the huge amount
of main investment in transmission and distribution
electrical systems. Therefore, ully utilization of the
978-1-4673-0662-1/12/$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
capacity of existing transformers is very important to
reduce the costs. To predict the loading capability of
transformers can be used top oil temperature (TOT)
and hot spot temperature (HST) as two criteria for
loading these important facilities. Estimate the TOT
and HST accurately is depended on recognizing the
parameters can effect on the transformer's
temperatures such as ambient temperature, loading
curent, cooling modes, oil's viscosity, and other
vriable factors. Therefore, to predict HST and TOT,
many models have been proposed such as the top oil
rise, top-oil, semi-physical model and thermal­
electrical models[3, 4].
To solve the classic thermal model have been
suggested several methods, such as linear and non­
linear regression as statistical methods and the other
one is the exponential method that was offered by
IEEE standard. The purpose of this research offers an
accurate technique to determine the TOT and HST
due to evaluate the loss of life (LOL) of transformers.
This technique is based on numerical methods and
solving thermal models by an improved numerical
method that is called Runge-Kutta method.
This method has been implemented on 30MVA
transformer, and MATLAB was used in this research
for programming the classic thermal model, because
of the reliability of this sotware for programming
and plot the results to indicate and compare the
measured and simulated results.
II. CLASSIC THERMAL MODEL
Much work has been done on developing classic
thermal models. The trend of development of this
thermal model for calculating the TOT has been
provided n section 2.1, and 2.2. In the way to
improve the classic thermal model has been
introduced new parameters. Thus it can improve the
previous models.
A. Top Oil Rise Model
This model is presented in IEEE Loading Guide
of the IEEE C57.91. standard which is a unction of
the load and load loss ratios[5]. In this model the
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 2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference (PEOC02012), Melaka, Malaysia: 6-7 June 2012

thermal behavior of transformer is estimated as a irst the top-oil-rise model by incorporating ambient
order model, in which the top-oil-temperature rise temperature variations into this model. This
over ambient temperature is govened by the improvement is based on the diferential equation
diferential equation as in equation (1) [3, 5-7]. given by (6).

(1)
(6)
Which solution is an exponential unction of, This has the solution as follows [l3],

- (..)
Bo = ( Bu- ; )( 1-e To )+B; (2)
(7)
Where
III. HOT-SPOT TEMPERATURE FOR CLASSIC
80 Top-oil rise over ambient temperature (DC), THERMAL MODEL

8u Ultimate top-oil rise for load L (DC), The model for the hot spot temperature rise over
top oil is depending on the fact that an increase in the
8j Initial top-oil rise for t=O (DC), loading (crrent) causes an increase in the losses
within transformer windings. Therefore, there is an
To Time constant (hrs), increase in the temperature. Transient winding hottest­
spot temperature rise over top oil temperature can be
t duration of load(hrs), calculated as follows [3]:
For

[I�R+l]n [
1BH = (1BH,u -1BH,;) l-exp � +1BH'i l
R+l
_
(3)
Ju -Ojl - (8)
That the initial value for hot-spot temperature rise
(4) over top-oil temperature is given by:

1 1
pu
=__

Irated (5) (9)

I the speciied load, And the ultimate hot spot as follow:

Irated the rated load,

Ipu the ratio of speciied load to rated load,
(10)
Pl the total loss at rated load (watts),
That the rated value of hot-spot is given by:
R the ratio of load loss to no-load loss at rated
load,
C the themal capacity (WhfDC).
n
(11)
Oil exponent-(an empirically derived
coeicient selected for each cooling mode to
approximately account for change in resistance
Where
with load),
Lesieutre et al. have proved the low accuracy of 18 hot spot rise over top oil temperature
H (C).
this model, as the comparison of estimated
coeicients and measured TOT values demonstrated 18H,U ultimate hot spot temperature rise over
to be obviously different between each other[6, 8-10]. top oil temperature for 10ad(C).

18H,I. initial hot spot temperature rise over

top oil temperature for t = 0 (C).
B. Top- Oil Model
winding hot spot time constnt of the
Top-oil model were proposed by [6, 11, 12]. transformer(h)
Later, they suggested an improved model rather than

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 2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference (PEOC02012), Melaka, Malaysia: 6-7 June 2012

t duration of the load (h) Where

..)HR rated hot spot rise over top oil FEQA is equivalent aging factor for the total time
, temperature (C). period,

I load current per unit. n is index of time interval,

N is total number of time intervals,
m Exponent which deines non-linearity
(accounts for the efects in resistance and dn is time interval.
oil viscosity change has been shown in
And, the percent loss of life can be calculated as:
Table (1».
FEQA x t x 10
%loss - of -lo = -'--
- -­

TABLE I. Exponents used in temperature determination

NIL (14)
equations[5]
V. NUMERICAL METHODS
Type of cooling m n
Numerical methods for the solution of ordinary
OA 0.8 0.8
diferential equation of initial value type are usually
FA 0.8 0.9 categorized as single or multistep methods. The single­
Non-directed 0.8 0.9
step method uses information provided at a single
FOA or FOW initial point to yield an approximation to the solution at
a new one. In contrast, multistep methods are based on
Directed FOA 1 1
or FOW
the sequence of previous solution and derivative value.
In this paper, single-step method is to determine the
top oil temperature and hot spot temperature of the
transformer.
The value of n has been speciied by the
manufacturer for each mode of cooling to In this study, two numerical solvers are used to
approximately account for efects of change in calculate the classic thermal model. First one is Euler's
resistance with change in load. TABLE I shows the method that is the simplest solver where it canot be
amount of n and m for each type of cooling. [2, 7] considered as an adequate solver in most application.
However, it is easy to explain, and it indicates
Ater solving the diferential equation (1), TOT has
important features that are common to all solvers.
been achieved. Then, HST will be calculated by
Another one is a more advanced technique used in
equation (12).
solving the ODE, i.e. Runge-Kutta solvers. The
BHST 1BOT 1BHST Bamb
Runge-Kutta solvers are adequate solvers and can be
= + +
(12) used in many applications [13, 15, 16].

IV. CALCULATING THE LosS OF LIFE OF
TRANSFORMER
The life of transformers is drectly proportional to
the quality of insulation of transformers such as oil and
paper, that the conditions of paper play the main rule
in the life of the transformers. Moisture, heat and
oxygen are the most important parameters that rom
these parameters the hottest temperature in transformer
determines and these parameters cause deterioration of
paper and decrease the life of the electrical
transformer.
The following equation could be used to determine
the equivalent aging of the transformer with regard to
the reference temperature for hottest spot isllO DC [5,
14]:
A. Euler's Method
THE
Euler's method is an example of a ixed-step
solver. It means that by choosing the discrete set of
values of the independent variable in order that they
divide the interval of interest into N equal subintervals.
It has been done by setting the step size h=(b-a)/N .
That to=a ,tJ=to+h=a+h and in general, tj=tj_J+h=a+jh .
The last point of the discretization is tN=a+h=b. The
values of the dependent variable y will be chosen
iteratively. At each step, the key mathematical idea is
the approximation of the graph of the unknown
unction yet) by its tangent line. The tangent line at
the point (t ,y(t » is the graph of the unction[13].
o o
(15)

The initial condition is y(to)=yo ' and the diferential

equation tells that y'(t )=!(t ,y(t »=!(t 'y ) . Therefore
o o o o o
(15) becomes:
(13)

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 2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference (PEOC02012), Melaka, Malaysia: 6-7 June 2012

initial point (to,yO), and two slopes compute for this

(16)
method as,
Although the solution for y(t) IS not known, KI =j(to' Yo) (19)
everything on the right hand side of (16) is K2 =j(to+h,yo+hK1)
computable. Specially, for t=t1 =to+h, it becomes:
And, the next value of the dependent variable to be,
t � Yo + f(to,yo)h (17)
KI + K2
__ (20)
YI = Yo + h _
2
YI = Yo + f(to,yo)h (18)
Generally, could rewrite,
The algorithm show in Figure 1 demonstrate in an
KI + K 2
Euler's method to calculate the values Y2' Y3' Y4' ... Yk = Yk-I + h (21)
2
andYn'
The Fourth-Order Runge-Kutta Method probably
the most commonly used solution algorithm. It is
suitable for any system as it is claimed to fast and
accurate. For this method, there re four slopes, and
begin with an initial value (to,yO).

K\ =f(to,yo),
h h (22)
K, =f(to+2'Yo+2K\),
h h
K3 =f(to+2'Yo+2K,),
K4 =f(to+h 'Yo+hK3),
With these slopes the next values of the dependent
variable can be calculated as,
NO
h KI + 2K2 + 2K3 + K4
Yk = Yk-I +
(23)
6

Figure 2 summarized the procedures in the Fourth­

order Runge-Kutta's method to calculate the other
Figure I. Algorithm for Euler's method

B. Runge- KUlla Method

Around 1900 another solvers were invented by the
mathematicians Runge and Kutta. They have offered
two solvers, the second-order and fourth-order
Calculate
methods. Although more modem and more efective
Kl. K2. KJ. K4
methods have been invented, the Runge-Kutta methods
are still being used to solve systems of diferential
AssiUl
equations. In fact, they may be the most commonly
used methods.
Similar to the Euler's method, the Runge-Kutta
methods are ixed-step solvers. The discrete set of
values of the independent variable is chosen by setting
NO
the step sizeh=(b-a)/ N. And set to =a'/I�/o+h�a+h
and in general, t=t. I+h=a+jh . The fmal value
j j-

is IN � a + h � b •

The values of the dependent variable y will be Figure 2. Algorithm for Runge- Kutta's method
chosen iteratively as in Euler's method. However, it is
not as easy to ind a geometry interpretation for
Runge-Kutta methods as it is for Euler's method[13,
16]. The second-order R-K method has been known as
the improved Euler's method, that starting rom the

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 2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference (PEOC02012), Melaka, Malaysia: 6-7 June 2012

VI. THERMAL TESTS FOR CASE OF STUDY TOT for 30MVA transformer
100

A. Three Phase 30MVATransformer ll

" �Q o_ �c--)
�
The ratio of voltage is 33/11 KV for this ''
80

//
'
transformer and cooling system is with extenal
cooling system, ONAF. This transformer has 3
70 "If
thermometers to indicate the top oil temperature and
RK4 method
winding temperature for high and low voltage RK2 method
60
windings. For gathering required data such as TOT and Euler
Measured
ambient temperature, to validate proposed technique Exponential
lO
has been ofered in this research, using the
thermometers of this transformer and connecting to
401
data logger to collect top oil temperature has been 0 10 12

suggested, it is possible because of a unique feature of Time (hrs)

this transformer that their thermometers have several
accessible terminals to connect to the data logger. Figure 4. Top oil temperature of 30 MYA transformer base on
Outputs are the unction of curent between 4 to 20 classic thermal model
nA that should be converted to temperature (DC). The
120 HST for 30MVA transformer
suggested connection of the equipment to the
transformer is shown in Figure (3). 110

100
or

90

TepUQlUe 80
indicotor
/' - RK4 method
(Top oi) RK2 method
70
Euler

] 60
Measured
Exponential

1
40 �--�-�--�-�--�-�
�0A
o 10 12
OUT'UT
Time (hrs)

JO MVA ONAF
Figure 5. Hot spot temperature of 30 MYA transformer based
on classic thermal model

'Ml8
FAA for 30MVA transformer

--- RK4 method ..

."
RK2 method
Euler
/
Figure 3. Method for instrumentation
Measured
Exponential
VII. ESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Figure 4 shows the measured top oil temperatures 0.7

and top oil temperatures obtained by exponential and
numerical methods. Similarly, measured, exponential, '6

./
and numerical methods (include K4, and Euler's
O.l
method) of the hot spot temperatures of the 30 MVA
transformer shows in Figure 5 together with aging OA -�_�_�_�_�_�_��
40 70 ]20
acceleration factor which is shown in Figure 6. It
should be pointed out that the results are shown
graphically based on the classic thermal models.
Figure 6. Aging acceleration factor of 30 MYA transformer
base on classic thermal model

TABLE Il.a includes the results of LOL and

equivalent life of the transformer. LOL are in hour
and percentage of overall life of the 30MVA
transformer. Results indicate that although 30 MVA
transformer expected to work for 11 hours, the
proposed method (K4) revealed that it is actually
worked for 10.13 hours. Thus the equivalent life of

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 2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference (PEOC02012), Melaka, Malaysia: 6-7 June 2012

this transformer is less than 1 per-unit, and it expects VIII. REFRENCES

the life span is more than 20 years by this kind of
[1]
loading of the transformer. Furthermore, this
transformer can tolerate 7.86% overloading without
any effect on its expected life. Whilst TABLE lI.b
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TABLE II.a. Results of classic thermal model of 30 MVA
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Loss of Loss of Loss of Loss of
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[6] W. H. H. B. C. Lesieutre, and 1. L. Kirtley, Jr, "n

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1.2576
VII. CONCLUSION
In this study, thermal performance of the
transformer is investigated for a speciic period of
transformer's loading and determined the loading
capability of these facilities based on the hot spot
temperature (HST) of the transformer. The
performance of electrical transformers is related to
the TOT and HST that can be calculated and
measured. Insulation life of the transformer that
indicates the life of the transformer decreases because
of overloading and faults occure inside these
of Hot Spot Temperatures in Transformers," 2002.
0.337
[11] 1. Declercq and W. Van Der Veken, "Accurate hot spot
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numerical analysis methods were presented. IEEE
standard thermal model (Classic thermal model) has
been selected as an acceptable and reliable thermal
model.

34