C2 C1 P2 = 1 - P1 P1 X= C2-C1 Y = LN(P2/P1) EXSISTING MODEL/RENCANA

Biaya Pengguna (orang) P1 (BUS) P2 (ANGKOT)

X Y X^2 XY X=C2-C1 P1 P2
Angkot Bus Angkot Bus PROBABILITAS PROBABILITAS
15740 15015 98 102 725 -0,040005335 525625 -29,00386759 50,24% 49,76% 1000 52,85% 47,15%
15740 15515 107 93 225 0,140229341 50625 31,55160179 45,50% 54,50% 700 50,00% 50,00%
15740 16015 115 85 -275 0,302280872 75625 -83,12723977 40,84% 59,16% 680 49,81% 50,19%
15740 12565 55 145 3175 -0,969400557 10080625 -3077,846769 71,92% 28,08% 672 49,73% 50,27%
15740 13065 72 128 2675 -0,575364145 7155625 -1539,099088 67,93% 32,07% 500 48,10% 51,90%
15740 13565 79 121 2175 -0,426342693 4730625 -927,2953576 63,65% 36,35% 490 48,00% 52,00%
15740 11340 34 166 4400 -1,585627264 19360000 -6976,75996 80,31% 19,69% 480 47,91% 52,09%
15740 11840 46 154 3900 -1,208311206 15210000 -4712,413703 77,13% 22,87% 450 47,63% 52,37%
15740 12340 54 146 3400 -0,994622575 11560000 -3381,716755 73,61% 26,39% 310 46,30% 53,70%
SUM 20400 -5,357163561 68748750 -20695,71114 207 45,33% 54,67%
0 43,39% 56,61%
N= 9 -100 42,46% 57,54%
A=α= 0,2660 -99 42,47% 57,53%
B=β= -0,00038 -98 42,48% 57,52%
-97 42,48% 57,52%
SUMMARY OUTPUT -96 42,49% 57,51%
-95 42,50% 57,50%
Regression Statistics -94 42,51% 57,49%
Multiple R 0,985049095 -93 42,52% 57,48%
R Square 0,97032172 -92 42,53% 57,47%
Adjusted R Square
0,96537534 -91 42,54% 57,46%
Standard Error 0,121675227 -90 42,55% 57,45%
Observations 8 -89 42,56% 57,44%
-88 42,57% 57,43%
ANOVA 250 45,73% 54,27%
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2,9042407 2,904241 196,16805 8,26152E-06
Residual 6 0,0888292 0,014805
Total 7 2,9930698

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0,276433627 0,0797825 3,46484 0,0133879 0,081212843 0,471654 0,081212843 0,471654411
725 -0,000382649 2,732E-05 -14,006 8,262E-06 -0,0004495 -0,00032 -0,0004495 -0,000315799

LOGIT BINER SELISIH

0,6

0,5

0,4

0,3
P1
0,2

0,1

0
-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
 C1 C2 P1 P2 = 1 - P1 X = Log (C1/C2) Y = Log (P2/P1) EXSISTING MODEL PROBABILITAS MODA
Biaya Pengguna (orang) P1 (BUS) P2 (ANGKOT) Rencana Tarif P1 P2
X Y X^2 XY
Angkot Bus Angkot Bus PROBABILITAS PROBABILITAS X Model = C1/C2 Prob Bus Prob KA
15740 15015 98 102 0,020479391 0,017374096 0,000419 0,000355811 50,05% 49,95% 0,00 100,00% 0,00%
15740 15515 107 93 0,006252948 -0,060900829 3,91E-05 -0,00038081 51,90% 48,10% 0,15 100,00% 0,00%
15740 16015 115 85 -0,007522215 -0,131278915 5,66E-05 0,000987508 53,69% 46,31% 0,30 99,85% 0,15%
15740 12565 55 145 0,097842235 0,421005313 0,009573 0,041192101 40,11% 59,89% 0,40 99,35% 0,65%
15740 13065 72 128 0,080895314 0,249877473 0,006544 0,020213917 42,24% 57,76% 0,50 97,94% 2,06%
15740 13565 79 121 0,06458493 0,185158279 0,004171 0,011958434 44,33% 55,67% 0,60 94,84% 5,16%
15740 11340 34 166 0,142391673 0,688629171 0,020275 0,09805506 34,68% 65,32% 0,70 89,16% 10,84%
15740 11840 46 154 0,123653026 0,524762889 0,01529 0,064888519 36,92% 63,08% 0,80 80,41% 19,59%
15740 12340 54 146 0,105689568 0,431959096 0,01117 0,04565357 39,13% 60,87% 0,90 68,97% 31,03%
SUM 0,634266871 2,326586573 0,067539 0,282924111 1,00 56,22% 43,78%
1,10 43,87% 56,13%
N= 9 1,20 33,19% 66,81%
A= -0,108551141 α= 0,778841096 1,30 24,66% 75,34%
B= 5,208449303 β= 5,208449303 1,40 18,20% 81,80%
Kurva Diersi Pemilihan Moda Angkot 1,44 16,12% 83,88%
1,50 13,45% 86,55%
dan Bus 1,60 9,99% 90,01%
120,00% 1,70 7,49% 92,51%
1,80 5,67% 94,33%
100,00%
1,90 4,34% 95,66%
80,00%
2,00 3,36% 96,64%
Moda Bus

60,00% 2,10 2,62% 97,38%

Prob Bus
40,00% 2,20 2,07% 97,93%
Prob KA
20,00% 2,30 1,65% 98,35%
0,00% 2,40 1,33% 98,67%
2,50 1,07% 98,93%
-20,00% 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00
Pemilihan Modaa 2,60 0,88% 99,12%
2,70 0,72% 99,28%
2,80 0,60% 99,40%
2,90 0,50% 99,50%
3,00 0,42% 99,58%
3,10 0,35% 99,65%
3,20 0,30% 99,70%
3,50 0,19% 99,81%
3,60 0,16% 99,84%
4,00 0,09% 99,91%
5,00 0,03% 99,97%